AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 10

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to provide added value to AFIO membership. The Editor, Roy Jonkers, is responsible for WIN contents. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.
WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage

SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets (none available for this edition)
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets (annotated RJ)
SECTION III - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services

CIA CREDIT FOR IRAN RESCUE OPERATION 1980 - In November 1979 militant Iranian students seized the American Embassy taking and holding 66 Americans hostage for 444 days. Six diplomats who were not in the compound took refuge in the Canadian Embassy, and were covertly exfiltrated by the CIA. Canadian Ambassador Ken Taylor received the credit, but recently the Canadian Broadcast Corporation aired a documentary revealing that the rescue operation was engineered by the CIA. This was confirmed by former DCI Admiral Stansfield Turner. Although Ambassador Taylor deserves much credit, at the time the US was pleased to let the Canadians get sole credit, for it made further retaliation against our hostages less likely. One can only be pleased that occasionally a positive CIA accomplishment is publicized. (RJ)

BAY OF PIGS REPORT - As reported previously, the one surviving copy of the CIA Inspector General's post-mortem on the Bay of Pigs, by the late Lyman Kirkpatrick, has been made public. It was extremely critical of CIA. In the words of AFIO's Ward Warren: "In the commercial world, an auditor is someone who comes in after the battle and bayonets the wounded. In the federal government, this function is carried out by Inspectors General. Lyman Kirkpatrick's report on the Bay of Pigs exemplifies an Inspector General at the top of his form."
In a call for balance in the assessment of the report, Warren recommends that the search for accuracy should start with a reading of Richard Bissell's response to the IG report. There was a consensus that the Kirkpatrick report was unnecessarily harsh, in part because it was a weapon used by Kirkpatrick to advance his own position and eliminate rivals, particularly Bissell. Kirkpatrick wanted to become DCI. Warren's reasoned statement will be printed in full in the Periscope and is highly recommended reading for all who are interested in a balanced assessment of this report. One can expect the media and authors to provide abundant negative reporting, exactly as then-DCI McCone expected. (Ward Warren statement, AFIO Periscope; WP 15 March 98, pageC5) (RJ)

ARMS FOR AFGHANISTAN - Western and US intelligence sources are cited in reports that Ukrainian arms shipments, financed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, are flowing to the fundamentalist Taleban forces. Some 55 cargo flights with Ukrainian arms have recently landed in Peshawar, and shiploads of arms have arrived in Karachi for movement to Kabul. Meanwhile, in Northern and Western Afghanistan, the anti-Taleban alliance is receiving arms from Russia, Uzbekistan and Iran. All indications are of renewed fighting on a major scale soon.
Past opposition to the Taleban has been based mostly based on tribal differences, pitting the minority Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras in the north and west against the majority Pashtuns, the tribal base of the Taleban movement. The new anti-Taleban alliance is broader-based and now includes Pashtun representation.
Russian interest in Afghanistan is simple - they do not favor the de-stabilizing spread of Islamic fundamentalism in their southern area of interest. The Uzbek and Tadjik republics are supporting their cousins. Iranian interests in opposing the Taleban are believed to center on protecting the Shi'ite Hazaras tribe in the center-west region. General Massood, the anti-Taleban alliance commander, supposedly visited Teheran recently to coordinate strategy, which will probably include an offensive to retake the western city of Heirat from the Taleban. The Ukrainian interest is also simple - money - have arms, will sell.
The Taleban enjoy the support of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, but are coping with internal strains between majority hard-liners and a minority advocating accommodation. International intrigue is in full swing as in the days of Lord Byron, and another catharsis of violence must be expected. (WT 6 March 98 page A5; WT 14 Mar 98 page A11, Economist 14Mar p 48) (RJ)

IRAQ - The news media have been flooded with commentaries on options on dealing with Saddam Hussein, ranging from "covert" action to kill him - a subject of negative comment in the European press - to the establishment of a "Radio Free Iraq." Military commentator Harry Summers recently drew attention to the differences in military options facing the US Commanders today and those in the Gulf War in 1990/91. Seldom mentioned in our media or political discussions is that this was a coalition war. US allies, including Arab allies, provided some 200,000 troops from 38 nations, with 1,200 tanks, 750 aircraft and 60 warships, as well as essential logistics support, and $54 billion in financial contributions to a war estimated to have cost $61 billion. War, quotes Summers from Clausewitz, is primarily a political act. During the first Gulf War an effective political coalition was formed, including local Arab allies. Today that is not the case, leaving military options severely limited.
It may be argued, however, that our present arsenal of options, including the threat of devastating air strikes, pervasive reconnaissance intelligence surveillance, covert intelligence operations, political action including repressive sanctions and intrusive inspections, and finally, diplomacy, are not insignificant, and while not as clear-cut and satisfying (to armchair observers) as killing by military force, are likely to attain our strategic ends against this small fourth rate power. (WT 14 March page A16) (RJ)

MOSSAD CHEMICAL WARFARE - The counter-espionage department of Shin Beth is investigating the source of leaks to the media about the bungled Israeli spying - or assassination - mission in Switzerland. Israeli press reports have suggested that persons close to Prime Minister Netanyahu leaked the reports in order to force the resignation of the former Mossad Chief Danny Yatom.
Meanwhile a senior Mossad officer has been quoted as saying that the operation in Switzerland (see previous WIN) was an assassination attempt, not a wiretapping. The target had been two Iranian businessmen suspected to helping Hezbollah acquire biological or chemical weapons from East Europe. According to the Mossad officer, the same poison method was to be used against the Iranians as that which failed in the attempt to assassinate Khalid Mish'al in Jordan. That attempt failed when, "instead of spraying the toxin into his ear, from where it should have traveled to the brain, causing hemorrhage and death with six to sixteen hours, the poison struck his neck and collar." He said the Switzerland operation had been approved by Danny Yatom and was strongly opposed by others within the Mossad, some of whom had resigned. The Mossad officer source motivation for leaking this information was allegedly to influence the choice of Dani Yatom's successor.
The new Chief of Mossad was announced on 4 March. It is Efraim Halevy, former deputy director of Mossad and Israel's ambassador to the European Union. His deputy will be Major General Amiram Levine. (Agence France Press, 3 Mar 98; London Times, 3 March 98, LAT 5 Mar 98 page A2) (RJ)

NEW AIR RECONNAISSANCE PLATFORM - The Pentagon is said to be considering a replacement of the venerable U-2 over the next 10 to 20 years, a proposal will engender a good deal of controversy and bureaucratic infighting. The program is code-named U-X, and preliminary design work is said to be underway at the Lockheed skunk works. Some opponents argue that the U-2's mission can be performed by satellites in the future, while others promote the high-altitude unmanned systems (UAV's) now under development -- Global Hawk and Dark Star. Information attributed to Air Force sources indicate that the U-X would be able to fly with or without a pilot aboard, and be far more capable than the UAV's now being planned.
The U-2's still being used today over Iraq are descendants of the U-2 shot down over Russia in 1960. Recent versions are more powerful, providing more timely and better intelligence, but the useful service life of even the latest airframes will not extend much beyond 2015. Participants of past battles over reconnaissance systems will recognize the players in this fight for resources: within the Air Force the competing high-cost fighter planes - the F-22 Raptor and the Joint Strike Fighter; the Space lobby; the UAV lobby, etc. etc. It is a battle waged within the Pentagon and in the Congress, and may well have been a factor in the House Intelligence Committee advocacy of abolishing the Defense Airborne Reconnaissance Office (DARO) last Fall. (Phil. Inq, 2 Mar 98, page A; Av Wk Tech 23 Feb 98 page 105) (RJ)

SECTION III . AFIO EVENTS & ANNOUNCEMENTS

AFIO Events:
20 May 1998 - National Intelligence Priorities Review '98 (NIPR 98)symposium

1 June 1998 - AFIO Luncheon, Ft Myer 1030 - 2 pm, featuring former DDCI (and acting DCI )Admiral William Studeman on Intelligence Issues, and Dr. Chandler (invited) on the creation process and issues of the 1997 Corporate Espionage Law. ($26 for members, 29 non-members)

REVIEW OF INTELLIGENCE & COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ISSUES:

• Congressional Issues in Intelligence - (whistleblowers, privacy, HUMINT, UAV's etc)
• Executive Agency (DCI, FBI etc) speakers.
• Russia & China Assessments
• Weapons of Mass Destruction Non-Proliferation Intelligence,
• Nuclear Arms Control
• Counter Intelligence issues in International Crime, Terrorism and Narcotics Networks, Economic espionage and counter-espionage.

TO ASSURE A SEAT, send in your name, tel. number and check to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Avenue, McLean, Va 22101.
LIMIT one hundred (100) seats: $99 for AFIO members, $129 for others.

This is the seventh year for this always outstanding international conference on open source intelligence issues, featuring WORLD CLASS speakers on open sources and methods. Different, interesting, stimulating, international and highly recommended!
Has breakout sessions on regional sources, pricing, source validation, and the role of the Internet in supporting intelligence and CI missions. International networking for those who create, use and buy open source intelligence. Free attendance at affiliated symposia.
On 21 May 98, the day following the conference, there is a classified SCI level session on OSINT, obviously for USG personnel only. For complete agenda and speakers, EMAIL oss98@oss.net and VISIT www.oss.net and click on Events. CALL 703 242 1700 or FAX 242-1711. COST $475 for government, self-employed and academics; Industry $675.

Includes talent scouts from within and outside the Government, and fifty exhibits.
Full day of Intelligence Community speakers, including heads of agencies, industry, job placement experts, authors. Job seekers, take one page resume along.
REGISTRATION for exposition, seminars and networking reception - - $35, -with further discounts for Government employees.Sign up now! VISIT info@pcic.net or CALL 703 379-8400

IN MEMORIAM

Robert Edward Owen, 74, who retired in 1980, Directorate of Operations, CIA, died 1 March 98 after suffering a heart attack at his home in McLean, Va.

BOOKS

-Security Studies for the 21st Century, edited by Richard Shultz et.al. Provides instructors and curriculum planners with model curricula and model courses that reflect the changes in the contemporary international environment. It includes a model course on "Intelligence and Security" by professor Roy Godson with contributions by professors Bradford Westerfield and Ernest May. (Brassey's Inc., January 1998, ISBN 1-57488-066-7 $49.95. Contact Louise Muniak (703) 260 0602 ext 10).

- Appollo's Warriors - Air Force Special Operations during the Cold War by Col Michael Haas, USAF (ret), Published Air University Press, 1997, and for sale GPO Stock# 008-070-00726-6 (GPO tel 202 512 1800)

- Alternative Careers in Secret Operations: Your Guide to a New Identity, Life and Career," by Mark Merritt. Recommended by ADM William Studeman, USN (ret), former DDCI.

- Investigator's Internet Resource Guide," an internet guide by David Vine. Order from bizintel@home.com. See announcement of free seminar below (under Services).

-The Attaches, a novel by MGEN (ret)"Chuck" Scanlon's ( IM Press Inc, PO Box 377, Fairfax Station VA 22039-0377).

- Recent Espionage Cases: Summaries and Sources (July 1997), Department of Defense Security Institute (Richmond, Va 23297-5901)

SERVICES:

- For AFIO members in NY area, free four-session seminar series on serious internet usage for business intelligence and investigations, by author (see BOOKS) David Vine, NYPL Science, Industry and Business Library, 34th and Madison, 2-3:30 pm April 6, 13,20,27.

- Enjoy wargaming? Play 1st ALAMEIN, plays in about 1 hour. Contact professor Coatney at
- Washington attorney frequently represents intelligence officers on issues of national security, privacy, FOI act and federal employment problems. Contact
-Jim Ferrier, C-K & Associates, Milwaukee WI, specializes in examining questioned (altered, forged etc) documents. Contact - Albano Ponte specializes in arranging US dollar loans in developing countries (minimum request $5 M) . Email to
- David Bedenbaugh is a financial advisor who focuses on retirement planning. Call 301 897 5999 or

POSITIONS AVAILABLE:

- Global Business Access, Ltd, is an international consulting firm composed of over 140 former US ambassadors, senior diplomats and intelligence officers, providing expertise on foreign countries. Global provides briefings, consulting, introductions, due diligence, training, security, investment services and legal support. Global seeks business associates. Visit or call 202 466-6249. Please let AFIO know if you succeed!
- Corporation is looking for a former Artillery Battalion Cmdr (7plus years experience, AC&GS College grad), to train Direct Support and Reinforcing commanders and staffs during LTP rotations. Qualified individuals contact afio@afio.com.

POSITIONS WANTED

-Professor looking for visiting college instructor opportunity this Fall teaching US foreign policy and security. Contact gclark@cmcl.coloradomtn.edu.
- Former Joint Staff Officer, graduate degrees in International Relations & National Security Affairs, graduate Russian linguist school, Russia and Middle East analyst, program manager and national intelligence officer, looking for position involving international marketing, strategic planning or program management. Contact afio@afio.com.
- Former commander of multinational peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance in Northern Iraq seeks position in international relief and development. Government experience in intelligence, post-government in business development with DARPA and IC community. Contact jmzhwms@aol.com.
- Senior Engineer, BSEE, coinventor of state-of-the-art biometrics security system based on real-time recognition of facial images, Tempest systems development, EMC/EMI, frequency management engineering, seeks new challenges. For reference, contact jonkers@betac.com
- Goal-oriented project manager, polished briefer, former speechwriter for DCI Bill Casey, looking for post-retirement position in June 1998. Contact glamborn@erols.com.
- Former Army special operations officer (Colonel), engineering degrees, excellent analyst and writer, several years experience with DARPA advanced projects, seeks association with interesting program. Contact jonkers@betac.com for address.