AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 12

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.

WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage

SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
SECTION III - Member's Missives
SECTION IV - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services

SECTION I. HARVEY'S NUGGETS

FREE POLLARD CAMPAIGN CONTINUES - The publisher of a newsletter announced that the Israeli prime minister had recently given the White House a letter seeking the immediate release of Jonathan Pollard, the former naval intelligence analyst sentenced to life in prison for treason. In response a "letter to the editor" noted that Pollard was a paid mercenary with a history of lying; that he attempted to sell secrets to the South African government before he approached the Israelis; that the MOSSAD rejected his approach, but the ultra-secret LAKAM organization took his offer, paying him $2,500 a month plus tens of thousands for trips, and promising him $300,000 in an overseas account (Pollard has been trying to get this money through the Israeli court system). Finally, he stole thousands of classified documents, and received no greater punishment than 13 other americans punished for spying.

SECTION II JONKERS' BULLETS

CIA INTELLIGENCE BUDGET - Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet broke new ground when he voluntarily disclosed the nation's combined intelligence budget of $26.7 billion, and increase of $0.1 billion, not sufficient to offset inflation. Last year the DCI was compelled to disclose the budget as a result of a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit. Tenet stated that, after careful review, he concluded that divulging the total budget figure would not harm national security, or intelligence sources or methods. The budget figure covers agencies (CIA, NRO, NSA, NIMA, DIA etc), military services and departments. The CIA is alleged to spend about $3 billion of the total.
Senator Richard Shelby, Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, expressed grave concern, saying the public release of the number was "of little use to anyone except our nation's enemies." On the other hand, Richard Aftergood, of the Federation of American Scientists, is keeping up the pressure. He is pushing to get next year's budget request ( FY 99 which begins in October 1998) also released now, so that "public" pressure can be brought to bear on this year's Congressional debate on intelligence spending.
Details of intelligence spending remain concealed in the "black budget," hidden in other appropriations, primarily the Pentagon's, covering both intelligence programs and other classified military programs. (NYT, 21 Mar98, WPost 21 Jan) (RJ)

CIA DECLASSIFICATION FACTORY - At an undisclosed Northern Virginia location a crew of former CIA officials is employed reviewing some 65 million pages of documents held in the archives. They must be readied for public release by 17 April 2000 in accordance with a White House executive order which dictates release of documents over 25 years old - unless they fall into nine narrowly defined exemptions. So staffers open every box, scan each page into computers and read every document three times to insure that the material is not dangerous, as defined by a classified declassification guide.
This includes deleting names of CIA employees and descriptions of methods and locations, necessary because 25 years is not enough time to protect individuals or their families from revenge and terrorists. The work is time-consuming and expensive - perhaps $2.50 per page - but necessary to protect lives and security.
The veteran staffers are ambivalent about their job, having spent their lives protecting secrets for the nation, but also drawn by the natural wish to be able to tell their side of the story. Inevitably, all the staffers complain about the amount of useless junk in the classified files. But a secretary's explanation for all that junk was simple. Whenever during her active years she was asked by her bosses to clean out the safe drawers, she did not feel she could decide what should be kept or junked. So she put everything in a box and shipped it to the archives. (Wall Str J 19 Mar pA1)

IRAQ DEFEAT -Sadam Hussein carried his peacetime practice of giving his commanders as little information as possible - for fear that they might use it against him - into the Gulf War battlefield. As a result, his commanders did not have intelligence data on such critical elements of information as the strength of the US forces on the battlefield, or how they were deployed against them. Good intelligence is a key to victory. The Iraqi commanders did not get any. (James Zumwalt, writing in Wtimes 22 Mar98) (RJ)

RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE ROUNDUP (continued). A Federal Security Service (FSB) spokesman stated that Russia was facing increasing industrial as well as political and military espionage threats from countries such as China, North Korea and Iran - aided by their nationals living in Russia - in addition to having to fend off the activities from the US, Britain and France.
Intelligence activity is said to have spread from Moscow, its traditional focus, to other Russian regions, where agents were trying to exert political influence on local leaders. The greatest danger, according to Colonel General Alexander Tsarenko, Deputy Chief of the FSB, is that agents are "building up positions which could enable them to influence the political balance in Russia."
According to recent public releases, the FSB during 1997 took credit for halting the activities of 28 foreign agents, sending several of them to prison; broke up 18 attempts by Russian citizens to pass secret information; prevented 130 "terrorist acts;" and broke up 34 armed illegal groups. In addition 32 drug dealers had been arrested, 13 of them foreigners.
As an example of FSB activities, two Russian military officers went on trial in early March 1998 accused of spying. The first one was accused of supplying Israel's Mossad secret imagery of third countries. The second one was trying to sell valuable secret data (allegedly worth "billions" in losses) about Russia's nuclear missile command for $500,000 to unidentified foreign agents.
On quite another level, environmentalist Alexander Nikitin was charged - for a record sixth time - with treason for helping the Norwegian environmental group Bellona document incidents of Russian Navy negligence with nuclear waste in Murmansk (see internet ), violating unpublished secret Defense Ministry decrees.

Director Nikolai Kovalyov stated that the FSB goals for 1998 will address the need to fight financial crime - including foreign economic dealings - and to protect foreign investment in the Russian economy. (Russia Today, 4,5,12 March, St Petersburg Times 2-8 March) (RJ)

SECTION II

- STATE DEPARTMENT TIGHTENS SECURITY - In early February a stranger boldly walked into the executive office suites on the seventh floor of the State Department - where the Secretary of State's offices are located - picked up a number of documents and walked off, while secretaries watched. The incident caused a good deal of consternation, and immediate steps have been taken to prevent a recurrence, including guards and restricted access procedures and traffic patterns to the executive offices. An investigation of the incident is continuing. (Source WPost20 Mar (JM -John Macartney)

SECTION IV - ANNOUNCEMENTS & SERVICES

BOOKS & REFERENCES

- AFIO member Abe Miller wrote an article entitled "The CIA and Crack-Cocaine Story: Fact or Fiction?," in the February 98 issue of "The World and I"

- For history buffs still contemplating Adolph Hitler's incomprehensible and self-destructive blunders in political and military decisionmaking, I highly recommend a recently published book by George Victor, simply entitled "Hitler: The Pathology of Evil."
Although I am a thorough skeptic about psycho-analysis, and approached this book with great reservation, I wholeheartedly recommend it as a brilliant study in leadership. This is not another cliche-ridden one-note tract, but a reasoned, balanced, insightful treatment, providing keys to understanding the paranoias - and the reasons for them - that drove Hitler. It sheds new light on a terrible chapter of European history. A must-read for intelligence analysts. ISBN 1-57488-132-9, Brassey's 1998

- Between Serb and Albanian: A History of Kosovo, by Miranda Vickers, Columbia Univ. Press, 352 pages, $47.50. A timely book for adding a modicum of depth to understanding the latest "crise du jour," with a clear-eyed approach exhibiting skepticism about both Serb and Alabanian claims. Ms Vickers has no sympathy for the oversimplified "politically correct" western carricature of evil Serbs versus meek and oppressed ethnic Albanians. She provides important descriptions of the Albanian leadership debates between advocates of peaceful accommodation versus those who believe in shooting their way out of Yugoslavia. Interestingly, many of the so-called "Kosovo Liberation Army" guerillas are former Yugoslav army officers who tasted blood killing Serbs in Bosnia, while others were trained in Iran and Pakistan. (The Economist Mar 21-27, p. 97)

SERVICES:

- AFIO OFFERS NEW SERVICE, THE AFIO Z-GRAM, a DAILY quick-scan, useful overview of news from the World press gleaned from the internet along with tips for internet researchers on intelligence-related topics. Exceptionally well done, praised by people in industry and high ranking officers, such as LGEN (ret) J. Clapper, former Director of DIA. Subscription for DAILY service only $98, of which $40 is tax-deductible donation. Mail check made out to AFIO and name/address/email to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303a, McLean Va 22101-4533.

The CIA OUTREACH PROGRAM - For information concerning CIA published materials (including those referenced in WIN #11), identify the item from the catalog "CIA Maps and Publications Released to the Public," published by the CIA Public Affairs Staff (tel: 703 482 0623) and then order from the National Technical Information Service by calling the NTIS Order Desk 703 487 4650.
For subscriptions to all CIA publications, call the Document Expediting Project, 202 707 9527. This includes subscriptions to the annual issues of Studies in Intelligence ( A useful reference is the Studies in Intelligence Index 1955 - 1992). For the most recent updates, visit the CIA web site .

POSITIONS AVAILABLE:

- Global Business Access, Ltd, is an international consulting firm composed of over 140 former US ambassadors, senior diplomats and intelligence officers, providing expertise on foreign countries. Global provides briefings, consulting, introductions, due diligence, training, security, investment services and legal support. Global seeks business associates. Visit Web: www.globalbusinessltd.com or call 202 466-6249. Please let AFIO know if you succeed!
- Corporation is looking for a former Artillery Battalion Cmdr (7 plus years experience, AC College grad), to train Direct Support and Reinforcing commanders and staffs during LTP rotations. Qualified individuals contact afio@afio.com.

POSITIONS WANTED

-Professor looking for visiting college instructor opportunity this Fall teaching US foreign policy and security. Contact gclark@cmcl.coloradomtn.edu

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