AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 17

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.

WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage

SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
SECTION III - Member's Missives
SECTION IV - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services

The AFIO Symposium on NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES is getting close - only three weeks to go. Key officials from the intelligence agencies will provide an unequaled survey of current priorities. You are encouraged to take advantage of this opportunity, ATTEND, and make a TAX-DEDUCTIBLE donation to AFIO. REGISTER NOW!

As a bonus to attending our symposium, you will be able to visit the Open Source Solutions (OSS) Expo exhibits and get a flavor of a diverse multi-national group of individuals dealing with open source issues, from government to industry to hackers, attending the OSS symposium.

An outstanding group of distinguished speakers will address current NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES, including:

Mr. John Millis, Staff Director, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, US Congress (Congressional intelligence issues and priorities)

Mr. Winston Wiley, Associate Deputy Director for Intelligence, CIA (DCI Overview)

Admiral Stansfield Turner, former Director of Central Intelligence (keynote presentation - nuclear arms control & reduction)

Mr. Peter Fox, Directorate of Transnational Warfare, DIA (Weapons of mass destruction)

Mr. Scott Harper, Counterintelligence Unit, FBI ( economic espionage and counter espionage)

Mr. Charles Hosier, Intelligence Division, DEA (International counter-narcotics and international financial crime & networks)

Professor Paul Goble, formerly State Dept INR and CIA (Russia assessment).

Register now! SUPPORT AFIO and bring a guest!

Cost is $99 for AFIO members and guests, $129 for others.

NOTE: 90% of the registration fee qualifies for tax-deductible donation to AFIO.

Registration: Mail name, address, tel# and check to AFIO at 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303A, McLean VA, 22101-4533.

Call 703 790 0320 or email AFIO if you need more information.

SECTION I HARVEY'S NUGGETS - On vacation in Wales.

SECTION II JONKERS' BULLETS

- HOUSE COMMITTEE APPROVES INTELLIGENCE AUTHORIZATION BILL.

The House Intelligence Committee sent to the full House the annual classified intelligence authorization bill. The Committee highlighted its concerns - the need for modernization of communications intercept capabilities (offensive and defensive), enhanced clandestine human intelligence and covert operations, and improved all-source analysis. The committee expressed its concerns by allocating funding to its causes.

Funding was shifted from satellite reconnaissance programs in order to address the impact of mushrooming telecommunications and computer technologies on the arts and sciences of communications interception and protection from foreign intrusion.

Funding was also shifted from lower-priority technical programs to programs for rebuilding an effective US espionage system and for enhancing covert operations. Covert operations encompass a variety of political, diplomatic and military programs directed at foreign countries (e.g. covert support for political opposition groups in Iraq, or arms for rebel forces fighting governments hostile to the US).

Finally, the committee provided additional funding for intelligence analysis, addressing the problem of how the incoming overwhelming tide of intelligence information collected by the intelligence systems can be addressed by the analysts.

The bill was said to exceed the President's budget request by a small margin, but it generally follows the Administration's priorities. The total amount of spending remains classified, but is said to be slightly above this year's spending level of $26.7 Billion. The full House will now consider the measure, and after passage, it must be reconciled with the parallel Senate bill. (AP 30 April 98) (RJ)

- CHINESE BALLISTIC MISSILES - Citing a leaked Top Secret CIA document, a recent press article publicized a Chinese capability to target the US with long-range ballistic missiles. China is said to have 13 CSS-4 ICBM's, each with a large city-buster nuclear warhead, targeted on American cities. Five other CSS-4 missiles, and a large number of shorter-range nuclear-tipped missiles, are said to be targeted against Russia and US military forces deployed in Asia.

In addition to the 18 CSS-4 ICBM's, China's operational missiles include 25 CSS-3 missiles (3,400 miles), the CSS-2 (1,750 miles) and the mobile CSS-5 (1,100 miles).

Under development are the DF-31, with a solid booster engine (4,500 miles), and an advanced ICBM with a range of 7,000 miles.

A DIA report in 1996 provided information on Chinese modernization programs including new guidance systems to provide better accuracy and reliability, and the development of multiple warheads.

The CIA report was allegedly distributed only two weeks ago to senior policymakers. The leak of the CIA report to the press coincides with Administration efforts to broaden cooperation on trade and non-proliferation and to build a "strategic partnership" with China. In Washington everything is political, including the uses of classified intelligence reports. (WT, 1 May 98 (Bill Gertz) pA1 and also p. A15) (RJ)

- NATO - The Senate voted on Thursday 30 April to add Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia to NATO, a strategy which has engendered a good deal of discussion and controversy. Senate approval for enlarging NATO, supported by a broadly bipartisan majority, means that there still is a consensus that NATO is a "valuable tool for stability in Europe and therefore a valuable asset to the United States" ( Senator Biden).

Critics fear that it will embroil the US in complicated Central European ethnic disputes and alienate the Russians. An underlying central issue of the debate was on whether Russia should be viewed as a potential ally or potential threat. With thousands of nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles, Russia retains a central place for US policy and an intelligence priority, whether in terms of a direct nuclear ballistic missile threat or in terms of nuclear non-proliferation. If and when the next expansion of NATO is pushed, to include the Baltics or Ukraine, a watershed will be reached. All Russian leaders have stated that this would be unacceptable.

Russian press reaction to the current expansion has been muted. General Lebed, a potential successor to Boris Yeltsin in 2000, noted wryly that the relatively small and poor Central European nations had drained Soviet power for 45 years and now should be allowed to drain America's. From our perspective, US arms and C4I industries can expect to profit from the business opportunity of bringing the military forces of the new members up to NATO standards. Intelligence cooperative arrangements will also be affected.

(WP 2 May 98, pA7; WT 3 May pA-9; WP 4 May 98 p A16; LAT 30 Ap p. A11) (RJ)

- ROGUE STATES - The State Department has released its 86-page annual report "Patterns of Global Terorism." Seven countries are designated as rogue states - sponsors of terrorism - from the US perspective, including Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Lybia, North Korea, Sudan and Syria.

Cuba is on the list although the report states that it no longer supports "armed struggle in Latin America or other parts of the world." It is there because it still maintains close ties with other state sponsors of terrorism and with leftists insurgent groups in Latin America.

Iran's attacks were most targeted on northern Iraq against Kurdish insurgent groups. Iran's security services were said to have conducted at least 13 assassinations of dissidents abroad. Iran was designated as the "most active state sponsor of terrorism." Lybia and Syria were stated to continue to provide a haven for terrorists. (WT 1 May 98, page A15) (RJ)

IRAQ - The UN Security Council this week renewed economic sanctions on Iraq for another six months. In response the Iraqi Revolutionary Council issued a veiled warning to any countries that maintained the economic embargo, announcing that those nations would "carry the burden of crises to come and any harm inflicted on our people."

The UN action was said to be based on tons of missing compounds used for making biological agents, and on the intelligence provided on the Iraqi chemical/biological program by General Hussein Kamel al-Majid, Saddam's son-in-law, when he defected in August 1995.

Waves of US Government spokesmen, intelligence reports and media articles periodically announce how many millions of Americans could be killed by Saddam. The whole exercise appears politcally-driven. Any state with medical laboratories or capable of producing pesticides can produce substances that can be used as "biological weapons." After 7 years of intrusive inspections and in-depth intelligence surveillance, it is pretty clear that the sanctions will only be lifted when Saddam is removed from power. All the rest appears to be politcal theater. (WT 1 May 98 page A15) (RJ)

POLISH SPY RETURNS HOME - Colonel Ryszard Kuklinski, Polish Army, who provided more than 30,000 pages of documents to US intelligence between 1972 and 1981, recently visited Krakow, and Gdansk, his birthplace. His visit renewed the debate in homeland whether he was a traitor or a patriot. A recent court decision ruled in Kuklinsky's favor, finding that he acted in Poland's best interests, and throwing out a death penalty sentence for treason.But the public reflects mixed feelings, and the Solidarity-led government did not offer him a hero's welcome, possibly to avoid offending military officers trained under communism, who view Kuklinsky as a traitor.

Kuklinsky stressed that he wants Poles to understand why he passed secrets to US Intelligence. He stated that he had tried to involve Waashington in a military conspiracy against the communist government in 1972, but that the Americans "felt that in peacetime secret cooperation with an organized military opposition has no chance of surviving." He then took the course of supplying information, including informing the US in 1981 of communist plans to impose martial law and to crack down on Solidarity. He now hopes that history will silence his Polish critics.

The fate of a spy is not easy. For many Kuklinsky is a man without honor in his homeland. He has lived in hiding in the US since 1982, when he was exfiltrated. During his visit he received a number of threats. Both of his sons have been killed in accidents under mysterious circumstances since the end of communism. (AP 29 April 98; Ag.Franse-Presse 29 April 98) (RJ)

SECTION III - SERVICES & ANNOUNCEMENTS

NOTE: This section is provided as a service to members. Any offer or appeal by non-AFIO organizational entities are provided without signifying any endorsement, verification or position by AFIO.

1. SERVICES TO MEMBERS

- MILINET is a service posting military and political articles, including politically incorrect and controversial items, for discussion. Although a number of members belong to the Marine Corps Intelligence Association, MILINET is strictly a private effort by Anthony Milavic (USMC ret) , who describes his service as "money losing, time-consuming, and angst-producing, but sometime joy." The Service is currently provided to some 230 active and retired members of the US Government, academe, the media and non-governmental institutions. If you are interested in "entering the MILINET kitchen, buy an asbestos apron" and contact <MAJUSMCRET@aol.com>

- CHAPTERS, MEMBERS, AND ACADEMICS MAY BORROW AFIO VIDEOS

Order from AFIO central office. Postage and handling $10

- Video #1 DAVID MURPHY (CIA retired), former CIA Berlin Station Chief, discusses the writing of his book: "BATTLEGROUND BERLIN: CIA VERSUS KGB IN THE COLD WAR" (Yale University Press).

- Video#2 MAJOR GENERAL OLEG KALUGIN (KGB, retired) covers aspects of his career in the Soviet KGB First Directorate (counterintelligence).

- NEW JOURNAL - The National Strategy Information Center has created a Working Group on organized crime and has started a new journal on the topic, called TRENDS IN ORGANIZED CRIME. Subscriptions are $60 yr, email <trans@transactionpub.com>

In addition, Working Group monographs are available to AFIO members at half price ($5), on topics such as alien smuggling, Columbian cocaine cartel etc. For information call NSIC 202 429 0129. Mention AFIO membership to get DISCOUNT.

Email <nsic@ix.netcom.com>

2. TAPS

- William R. Simpson, former AFIO member, who served during the Korean War and attained the rank of colonel in the Army Reserves, died 22 April 98 at age 64 in Buffalo, NY

3. SERVICES BY MEMBERS

- Longtime AFIO member Adam Mandelbaum Esq. is writing a book 'Psychic Soldiers' to be published in 1999. He is interested in interviewing individuals who participated in studies and/or operations in this field. He already has the AIR 1995 evaluation of Star Gate, and is aware of several declassified DIA studies from the 70's available from National Archives. Assistance is greatly appreciated! Contact <mailto:lexman@worldnet.att.net

4. POSITIONS AVAILABLE

- CIA is looking for secretaries. Requirements for US citizens include HS diploma, 4-plus years of secretarial experience, with proficiency with Word 6.0 and Excel 5.0 considered desirable. Applicants must pass the usual medical, aptitude, typing and polygraph tests. Applicants may send resumes to : Recruitment Center, Dept. RAWAP0498, PO Box 12727, Arlington VA 22209-8727. Deadline is 15 May 98. Visit <www.odci.gov/cia>

5. ANNOUNCEMENTS

- CIA WEBSITE FOR KIDS - Unexpectedly entertaining. The homepage features codes and ominous warnings and a link to enter the "Kids Secret Zone" where there are quizzes on history and geography , interactive disguise games, and bio sketches of cloak-and-dagger figures dating back to the Revolutionary War. An Agency spokesperson stated that the purpose was to put a human face on the work being done at the Agency. It also helps CIA personnel explain their job to their children. The Web Site has been getting almost a thousand visits a day. The site is at: <http://www.odci.gov/cia/ciakids/safe.html>

- OSS 98, Global Intelligence Forum, takes place 17 - 20 May 98 in the Tysons Corner Marriott hotel in McLean, Virginia. This brings together 600 professionals worldwide to discuss open sources and methods of intelligence. The Conference starts on Sunday with two pre-conference sessions, one providing an overviews of the open source world, the other an understanding of asymetric warfare threats. The Conference will be followed by a half-day classified session at DIA. For more information on this event, which in previous years has always been exceptionally interesting and diverse, visit <www.oss.net> or send email to <oss98@oss.net>.

Incidentally, OSS 98 provides free facilities for the AFIO National Intelligence Priorities Survey symposium on 20 May (see AFIO calendar below).

- JOB FAIR - JTM and Associates presents PCIC 98 (Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community), a "job fair" held at the Tysons Corner Marriott in Virginia on 21 May 98. PCIC will provide one-stop shopping for career development. HR reps, recruiters and program managers in search of intel folks will be there to discuss job openings and opportunities in Government and Military agencies, Industry, Educational institutions, Think Tanks and academics, as well as professional associations (such as AFIO).

For exhibit space, contact Lori Tugman at 703 379 8400 or <expo98@pcic.net>. To register electronically visit <www.pcic.net> with credit card, or call for faxed registration form.

6. AFIO CALENDAR

(1) AFIO Symposium - US INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES SURVEY - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel, McLean, Virginia 20 May 1998 - 0730 - 1600. Support the AFIO mission -

REGISTER NOW - 90% of the fee is a tax-deductible donation to AFIO. Distinguished speakers from CIA, FBI, DIA, DEA, Congressional Staff. Send check for $99 (AFIO members and guests) or $129 (others) to AFIO. Seating limited to one hundred. Support AFIO - bring a guest. Register now!

(2) AFIO Luncheon - 1 June 1998 - 1030 - 1400, Fort Myer, Va. REGISTER NOW

Admiral Wm Studeman, former DDCI (and DIRNSA & DNI), will discuss intelligence issues, past and present.Professor James Chandler, will address creation process of the Economic Espionage Act legislation and remaining issues. Send check for $26 (AFIO members and guests) or $29 (others) to AFIO

(3) AFIO SPECIAL Luncheon - 21 July 1998 - 12:30 - 2:30 at Fort George G. Meade Maryland. Luncheon at the Officers Club, presentation by Jack Ingram ( Curator and Historian, National Cryptologic Museum), and tour of the Museum. Send check for $22 (AFIO members and guests), or $29 (others) to AFIO. FIRST COME, FIRST SERVED. Send in your registration soonest.

(4) AFIO Luncheon - 14 September 98, Fort Myer, Va. Speakers to be announced.

(5) AFIO CONVENTION

NOTE: The AFIO Convention is HOSTED on Friday at the Convention Center by The CORPORATE INTELLIGENCE CONFERENCE OF THE AMERICAS, a conference endorsed by AFIO and supported by Fred Rustmann, President of the local AFIO chapter.

AFIO has mailed out a circular on the Corporate Conference to its members.

The Corporate Conference will address business intelligence (What is it? How do you get it? and How do you protect it?), and will be run independently from the AFIO Convention with a separate registration and different fees.

The AFIO CONVENTION will be HOSTED by the Corporate Intelligence Conference in a separate facility within the Miami Beach Convention Center, with a SEPARATE PROGRAM. Arrangements for hotel rooms at favorable rates are being made. The AFIO Hospitality Room will be in the hotel.