AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 21

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.

NOTE: Roy Jonkers is off on his annual walking vacation in Europe and I will (try to) carry on with WINs until his return. --John Macartney, jdmac@syr.edu

NO E-MAIL AFIO PLEASE!!! While Roy Jonkers is on vacation, AFIO will not be reading e-mail. If you need to communicate with the AFIO office, call them at (703) 790-0320)

TO AFIO MEMBERS - Every member recruit just ONE new member so we can carry on the mission!

Professors in the AEP program - if you are not already an AFIO member, associate member or subscriber, we encourage you to sign up. It will enable the program to continue.

SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS

CIA ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER. Terry Flannery, an environmental analyst with CIA, recently spoke to a humanitarian aid conference in California. He told the audience that many looming international threats are environmental in nature, and because they are becoming important to US foreign policy are being tracked by the US Intelligence Community. Examples he gave included the forest fires raging (again) in Indonesia, population problems in the third world, gross pollution problems in China and elsewhere, and the Kyoto Accords on global warming. VOA, 14May98, http://www.fas.org/irp/news/1998/05/980515-cia.htm

PAKISTAN FEARED INDIAN and/or ISRAELI STRIKE. Last week on the eve its nuclear tests, Pakistan and possibly China as well feared that Indian and Israeli warplanes were about to strike Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure. US intelligence detected no such attack preparations and that was shared with Pakistan in order to calm that country's fears. In the aftermath of the war scare, US intelligence analysts are unsure if Pakistan really thought they were about to be attacked or whether they just "cooked up" the threat in order to deflect criticism from their nuclear tests. Meanwhile, there seems to be a discrepancy between some of Pakistan's claims about their nuclear capability and what US intelligence believes to be true. For one thing, Pakistan claims they detonated 5 nuclear devices on their first test, but US seismograhpic monitors only detected one detonation. Also, Pakistan claims it has weaponeered nuclear warheads to fit on its latest ballistic missiles. US intelligence analysts apparaently doubt that. Washington Times (Bill Gertz), 6/1/98, p1.

JERIMIAH COMMISSION REPORTS TODAY. The investigation into the alleged "failure" of US intelligence to forecast the recent Indian nuclear tests, which is headed by Admiral Jerimiah, former Deputy CJCS, is due to report to Congress today. We'll probably hear much more about that episode in the next few days as the Report seeps into the press.

ALBERT EINSTEIN. Recently discovered letters twritten by physicist Albert Einstein suggest he had a romance during and after WW2 with a woman thought to have been a Soviet spy. Apparently, the woman's "mission" was to introduce Einstein to the Soviet Consul in New York, which she did. Actually, Einstein's theoretical work at the time had little to do with the practical detail of the US Manhattan Project. The goal was probably to influence the prominent physicist to think and speak favorably about the USSR. Washington Times, 6/2/98

INTELLIGENCE FUNDING DEARTH. Spending on US intelligence, about $27 billion a year, has been flat for a decade. Actully, because of inflation, it has declined in "real terms" by about 30%. At the same time, intelligence is being asked to report on more and more issues and areas. Whereas the used to be one Soviet Union, there are now 15 independent states and all of them pose various politcal and economic problems. And where there used to be one peaceful Yugoslovia, there are now five countries wracked with war and with US troops deployed there. Similarly, intelligence is being asked to report on drug trafficking, environmental degredation, organized crime, illegal immigration, Hutu vs Tutsi violence in Africa, international trade shenanigans, and other problems that were not part of the old Cold War mission. In short, intelligence is being asked to do more with less -- much more with much less. And, frankly, it isn't working out very well. Furthmore, the Clinton Administration does not seem to be paying much attention to this matter. (Source: senior former intelligence official)

SECTION II - BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS & OTHER SOURCES

"SISTERHOOD OF SPIES: The Women of the OSS," by AFIO member and OSS veteran, Elizabeth McIntosh (Naval Inst Press, 1998). Ms McIntosh's new book was reviewed by (novelist) Donald Westlake in the 5/31 NY Times. Westlake, who liked the book, more or less, lacks as far as we know any qualifications in the areas of intelligence, OSS, or World War II history. Watch for a much more thorough review in the September issue of AFIO's "Intelligencer" newsletter by former AFIO President John Waller who has written extensively about intelligence operations in WW2 and who is himself a veteran of the OSS and CIA.

WEB SITES. I have two favorite intelligence web sites. The first is maintained by John Pike at the Federation of American Scientists, <http://www.fas.org/irp/>.The second is at the Political Science Dept at Loyola College in Maryland. Maintained there, I believe, by AFIO AEP professor, Kevin Hula. <http://www.loyola.edu/dept/politics/intel.html>

WEB-BASED INTELLIGENCE BIBLIOGRAPHY. In the last issue, we reported that Ransom Clark's bibliography would soon be available. Well, it's now on-line and free. Ransom Clark a retired CIA officer and AFIO Member, teaches at Muskingum College in Ohio. His work, entitled "The Literature of Intelligence: A Bibliography of Materials, with Essays, Reviews, and Comments," consists of over 7,000 entries, including books, monographs, and specialized journal articles, organized in some 500 subject categories. <http://intellit.muskingum.edu/intellsite/index.html>

ON-LINE INTELLIGENCE DISCUSSION GROUP. I recommend a free on-line intelligence discussion group that I've found very interesting and useful. If you're interested, send an e-mail to: <Listserv@maelstrom.stjohns.edu> In the body of your e-mail, put only and exactly: SUB CLOAKS-AND-DAGGERS ( your first name ) ( your last name )

INTELLIGENCE JOB INFORMATION. There's a great new web page devoted to intelligence job information. It's been put together by a young man who is a college sophomore with a double major in math and computer science and an ambition to be an intelligence officer. Unable to find a good source of information on intelligence jobs, he created a web page devoted to the subject. <www.intelstudents.org/>

GUARDRAIL. For more than you ever wanted to know about US Army airborne SIGINT collectors: <http://www.jnpcs.com/dbuley/>

URL'S FOR FY 1999 INTELLIGENCE AUTHORIZATION BILL.

http://www.access.gpo.gov/su_docs/aces/aaces002.html

http://jya.com/sr105-185.txt

EDWARD SHIRLEY is the pseudonym of a former CIA Directorate of Operations (DO) case officer (1985-1993) whose 1997 book, KNOW THINE ENEMY, was critical of the CIA. Well, his cover story in the February 1998 issue of THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY, "Can't Anyone Here Play this Game?", is even more critical. The May issue of THE ATLANTIC has two letters from other CIA DO officers who agree with Shirley. Both the original article and the letters are available on-line.
http://www3.theatlantic.com/issues/98feb/cia.htm
http://www3.theatlantic.com/issues/98may/9805lett.htm

GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CONSPIRACY?
According to this site, the government of New Zealand is in cahoots with the American NSA to eavesdrop on nearly everyone's phone, e-mail, and fax communications. A lot of (doubtful and inflammatory) details -- worth a look. http://www.dis.org/erehwon/echelon.html

SECTION III - BULLETIN BOARD

SECTION IV - MONTHLY "HEADS UP" LIST

Events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars. NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, <jdmac@syr.edu>

JUNE 1998:

JUNE 1, Washington. AFIO Summer Luncheon. Morning speaker (11am), Prof James Chandler, providing an insider's view on the passing of the Corporate Espionage Law of 1997, plus luncheon speaker former DDCI and acting DCI ADM (ret) William Studeman. $26 for AFIO members and their invited guests - $29 for all others. (703)790-0320 / https://www.afio.com.

JUNE 5, Washington. NMIA Awards Banquet, Ft Myer O'Club. 301.548.1018.

JUNE 15. Deadline for 1999 ISA paper and panel proposals. See Feb 16-30, 1999 entry, below.

JUNE 25, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College will host an academic conference at the DIAC building on Bolling AFB. Contact LCDR Pete Clanton (202) 231-8538, fax (202) 231-2171, or e-mail AFjmic@dia.osis.gov.

JUNE 26-27, Chicago. AFIO Midwest Chapter's 8th Intelligence Seminar at Great Lakes Naval Station, Chicago. Contact Angelo DiLiberti at (847) 931-4184, or Don Clark (630) 834-2032, or diaboliq@home.com.

JULY 1998

JULY 10-11, Vermont. AFIO New England Chapter at the Bromley Lodge with speaker Joseph Goulden of Accuracy in Media. Peggy Adler, (860) 669-7706.

JULY 15-19, Washington, DC. Marine Corps Intelligence Association Convention. Includes a ceremony at the Iwo Jima Memorial, trips to USMC intelligence facility at Quantico and the USMC Museum at the Navy Yard, and the evening retreat ceremony at the Marine Corps barracks. Distinguished speakers include the DCI, the Marine Corps Commandant, Gen Charles Krulak, CINCSOUTH, and former DIA director LtGen Clapper. Contact MGySgt John Asbery, USMC (Ret), Tel: (703) 494-3894; http://www.erols.com/mgysgt/

JULY 21, Washington. AFIO Special Luncheon, Ft Meade, Maryland, O'Club, 12:30 - 2:30, with presentation by Jack Ingram (Curator & Historian, National Cryptologic Museum), and special TOUR of the Museum. Send check for $22 (AFIO members and guests), or $29 (others) to AFIO. (703) 790-0320

SEPTEMBER 1998

SEPTEMBER 7-10, Moscow Spy Tour. This event is being organized by Dan Mulvenna, a retired Royal Canadian Mounted Police counterintelligence officer and an Associate Member of AFIO. It includes visits to espionage related sites and meetings with current and former senior SVR/KGB officers. Repeat of a similar and successful tour in June 1997. Cost is $1500, not including airfare or hotel. djmulv@erols.com

SEPTEMBER 8-11, Washington. InfoWar Œ98 Conference. Voice: 813.393.6600; Fax: 813.393.6361; infowar@infowar.com

SEPTEMBER 14, Washington (Ft Myer O'Club). AFIO Fall Luncheon. Morning speaker (11am) plus luncheon speaker. $24.00 for AFIO members and their guests - $29.00 for all others. (703)790-0320 / https://www.afio.com.

SEPTEMBER 17, Washington. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon at Bolling EM Club. Pre-luncheon speaker 1030. (703) 379-7177

OCTOBER 1998:

OCTOBER 16-17, Borden, Ontario. AFIO Midwest Chapter's Autumn Œ98 function, a working tour of the Canadian Military Intelligence and Security Camp. Angelo DiLiberti, (847) 931-4184, or Don Clark, (630) 834-2032, diaboliq@home.com.

OCTOBER 23-24, Kennebunkport, Maine. Meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Nonatum Resort with speaker Peter Huchthausen, former Naval Attaché in Moscow and author of Hostile Waters. Peggy Adler, (860) 669-7706

OCTOBER 28-30, Brno, Czech Republic. AFCEA Europe Symposium and TechNet Exposition on "The New NATO." tel: 32(2)705 2731 / afcea@euronet.be / http://www.afcea.org

OCTOBER 30 - Nov 1, Charlotte, NC. ISA/South conference at the Hilton at University Place in Charlotte, North Carolina. (704) 547-4536; fax (704) 547-3497; e-mail HICHERNO@email.uncc.edu.

NOVEMBER 1998:

NOVEMBER 4, Washington. NMIA/OPS Counterintelligence (CI 98) Symposium, Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642

NOVEMBER 5, Washington. NMIA Defense Intelligence Status (DIS 98), Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642

NOVEMBER 19-21, Miami. AFIO National Convention & Symposium, Miami Convention Center. (703) 790-0320

DECEMBER 1998:

DECEMBER 7, AFIO Winter Luncheon. Morning speaker (11am) plus luncheon speaker. $24.00 for AFIO members and their invited guests - $29.00 for all others. (703)790-0320 https://www.afio.com.

NEXT YEAR: 1999

FEBRUARY 16-20, 1999, Washington. ISA Convention. (See Fred Wettering's report, above.) Panel or paper proposals due June 15 to the 1999 Program Chair, Joe D. Hagan, West Virginia University, (304) 293-3811, (304) 293-8644 (fax), Email: isaprog@wvu.edu. Web: http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/washington/

In addition, notify Jim Wirtz, the Intelligence Program Chair at the Dept of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, 408-656-3483; jwirtz@nps.navy.mil.

MARCH 21-25, 1999. Washington. National OPSEC Conference. Call 301.840.6770 or for an automated fax dial 301.548.1018.