AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 34

NOTE: LAST CALL for the AFIO LUNCHEON 14 SEPTEMBER, Fort Myers Officers Club, Arlington Virginia, 10:30 -14:00. ATTENTION: be prepared for increased security checks at the gate. You must show a picture ID.

Dr. Hamilton Merritt, Nobel Prize Nominee, and Major General (USA ret) Jack Singlaub & SOG Crew. Send check for $26 (members and guests) or $29 (non-members) to AFIO 6723 Whittier Ave, ste 303A, McLean Va 22101-4533. Call Mrs Gretchen Campbell at 703 790 0320.

NOTE: Chapter President's Suggestion: Recruit a Buddy Month - each member sign up a member or associate member. Each member can support AFIO's objectives in this way, wherever you are.

RUSSIA - A former director of the National Security Agency (NSA), LTG William Odom (USA ret), now a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, in analyzing the widely reported economic and governmental problems in present-day Russia, used an interesting analogy to depict the situation:

" Think of the Russian economy as a professional football league. On game day, the teams arrive at their fields to play before sellout crowds. The players look around to discover there are no referees. Nor is the field lined off to mark the boundaries, yard lines and goal lines. To get the game underway, each teams's owner sends one of its own to officiate. Predictably, the referees only make calls favorable to their team. At half-time, gamblers send their agents to bribe the referees. The fans, knowing that skill doesn't determine the outcome, become unruly. The game turns into a melee. Meanwhile, most of the gate receipts disappear mysteriously and the players end up receiving no salaries."

This is an approximation of the way the Russian economy operates, according to General Odom. The state is not strong enough to impose order. They cannot dictate the rules. They may write rules for teams and owners, but they cannot enforce it. Nor can they prevent theft at the box office, or extract adequate fees from the owners to pay for rules to manage the league for the season. Nonetheless, said the general "Western governments continue to act as if controlling legal institutions exist and that the rules are fair."

We must, concludes the general, shift away from our obsession with democracy in Russia and put our emphasis on creating a " . .l system that limits the state's power and guarantees private property and civil rights..." The football analogy is apt, but the conclusion provides the startpoint for a three-martini policy discussion. (Wpost 6 Sep 98, pages C1 and 5) (RoyJ)

NEW DIRECTOR FOR RUSSIA'S FSB - The Federal Security Service (FSB) has recently had its director, Nikolai Kovalev, abruptly dismissed by President Boris Yeltsin. The replacement, Vladximir Putin, is a career intelligence officer and a top presidential advisor. A likely explanation for the dismissal is that it was not Kovalev's faults but Putin's virtues that led to the chang. Putin rose to prominence as one of the main advisors to St Petersburg's first libaral mayor, and was adept at entertaining foreign visitors in excellent German.

Putin has promised tougher controls on strategic exports and on leaks via the Internet. He also promised to improve the FSB's image in the Russian press. That task should not be too difficult in view of the FSB's recent practice of heavy-handed pursuit of environmental activists as criminals while demonstrating ineptness in dealing with organized crime.

Economic security is now the FSB's top priority. As a result, the state's code-cracking and snooping capabilities could be put at the service of the tax collectors. Overall the trend appears to be for the FSB to gradually regain many of the powers it held as the KGB in the Soviet Union. (Economist 1-7Aug 98 p4) (DonH)

GERMAN SPY PROBLEMS - Three German agents of the BND (Bundes Nachrichten Dienst) went on trial in Munich in July on charges of selling Russian military secrets to British MI6 agents in the early nineties. The BND officers were part of a large-scale Western operation, nicknamed Operation Giraffe, to buy secret information and materials from Soviet officers during the Red pullout from eastern Germany. The operation was dogged by problems, and the trial is shedding an unwelcome light on BND practices.

The trial merely reveals the top of an iceberg relating to allied intelligence cooperation and competition. It relates to German attempts to persuade the US to return the Stasi files that Washington bought from East Germans agents in a major CIA coup in 1990. Under German law all files of the former East German Government belong to Bonn, but this is not enforceable on Washington. The court case hints that CIA's Stasi files may contain important and sensitive information, potentially affecting German political figures.

During the Cold War, West Germany and its political and intelligence structures were riddled with Stasi agents. Washington and London are said to be still reluctant to share information with an organization which leaked like a sieve during the Cold War, and suspect that the BND may continue to be infiltrated by Russian agents. The trial is deemed to be undermining German aspirations to increase its importance as a European partner of CIA and MI6. . (The Telegraph, 12 Jul98, London) (RoyJ)

WORLD WAR II PLOTTING TO KILL HITLER - Official records declassified by the British show that Britain's Special Operations Executive (SOE) began to consider a plot (named Operation Foxley) in June 1944 to kill Hitler when an agent asked London for approval of an assassination attempt during a visit by the Fuehrer to southern France. Winston Churchill and Anthony Eden were kept informed of the planning which had received the blessing of Britain's joint military chiefs.

The released memoranda also include opposing views amidst the plotting. One of the dissenters, labeled "X" and later identified as R.H. Thornely, a British Army officer who ran the German section of SOE, argued that Hitler was such an incompetent military planner that he was actually an asset to the allies. "As a strategist, Hitler has been of the greatest possible assistance to the British war effort," wrote X in one of the memos. Eventually, X's views won out, and the operation was canceled in April 1945. Hitler shot himself a few weeks later. (Wpost 24Jul98) (DonH)

MI-5 ESTABLISHES OFFICIAL WEBSITE - The British counter-intelligence service, MI-5, has established its own site on the web - - - <http://www.mi5.gov.uk> and has emphatically stated what MI5 does not do. "The service does not kill people or arrange their assassination." The service also rejected accounts of its operatations as recounted in former agent Peter Wright's memoirs "Spycatcher." The allegation that 1970's MI5 Chief Roger Hollis was a double agent for the Soviets was rejected as well.

The writ of MI5 appears to run broadly. "Threats to national security often come from abroad. Security threats to British interests anywhere in the world fall within the scope of the service's functions." Enunciating a standard American agencies would hope to achieve, the site sternly warns:" No members of the public is permitted to see any Security Service files, except for historical records which have been declassified and released by the Public Record Office."

It is not known what MI5's reaction would be to a request from the Prime Ministers staff for roughly 1,000 personal files of individuals in previous administrations. (AFP 29 Jul 98, London) (DonH)

TRAVEL INTELLIGENCE - Now that we have a price on our heads, the prudent will want to check conditions overseas, particularly in exotic travel destinations. Check:

State Department <http://travel.state.gov/travel_warnings.html>
Australia's Consular Travel Advice < www.dfat.gov.au/consular/advice>
Canadian travel information < www.dfait-maeci.gc.ca/graphics/cosmos/cntry_e.htm>
British travel advice <www.fco.gov.uk>
Pinkerton Global Intelligence Services <www.pinkertons.com/pgis>
Air Security International <www.airsecurity.com/hotspots/general.asp>
Fielding's Danger Finder <www.fieldingtravel.com/df/index.htm>
(USA Today21 Aug 98 page 2D) (RoyJ)

We are in process of assembling, or have assembled, a superb cast of eminent speakers - a great opportunity for an update on a wide range of intelligence activities and to broaden your horizons on both contemporary and future intelligence and counterintelligence issues. This is a shouldn't miss / can't miss event!

For purposes of attracting attendance beyond AFIO, there is a breakout between SYMPOSIUM and AFIO CONVENTION sessions.

First let me address the CONVENTION. The Convention starts Thursday 5 November at 4pm with a General Membership Meeting at the Tysons Corner MARRIOTT Hotel, including a review of new AFIO directions and initiatives. It will be followed by a Social Hour and Chairman's Reception , and then, an AFIO AWARDS BANQUET.

FOR THE FIRST TIME there will be an AFIO AWARDS ceremony at the Banquet - we are looking forwards to making awards to AFIO members for outstanding contributions to AFIO and its objectives - - - by presenting the DAVID ATLEE PHILLIPS and General RICHARD STILLWELL awards (commemorating the founding/first and second Presidents of AFIO.)

Additionally there will be an Award to a high-profile JOURNALIST for quality commentaries and reporting on intelligence-related matters in printed media. The name for that award will be announced as soon as has been cleared with the family concerned.

For those unable to attend the Symposium proceedings, a barely break-even donation of $100 to AFIO will enable you to attend the above Thursday CONVENTION portion of the conference.We hope that most of you will sign up for the entire package, including the Symposium.

REGISTER EARLY. To get into CIA we must have your SOCIAL SECURITY NUMBER etc. at least TWO WEEKS before the start.

The SYMPOSIUM sessions start Thursday 5 November 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. at the Tysons Corner Marriott, and continue on Friday 6 November at CIA Headquarters.

This first Symposium session will concentrate on Security issues. Session Chairman Ted Shackley (CIA ret), has lined up three outstanding speakers (all confirmed) to address counterintelligence, terrorism, executive protection and Russian organized crime, all most relevant topics. The first speaker will be the Staff Director of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Taylor Lawrence.

The SYMPOSIUM will continue on Friday 6 November at 0800 at CIA Headquarters.

In the first session, chaired by AFIO President Peter Earnest, a stellar cast of speakers will outline intelligence strategies, beginning with the DCI, the Chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and the Director INR, Department of State, all invited.

The second session, chaired by LTG (USA ret) James Williams will address challenges for intelligence, including technological developments affecting intelligence capabilities, methodologies, arts and crafts. Top drawer speakers will include the Directors of the National Reconnaissance Office ( NRO) and the National Security Agency (NSA), a Department of Justice Attorney from FINCEN (Financial Crimes Center), and the Director of the Sandia Laboratories Center of Technology - ALL CONFIRMED - - and the Director of the Los Alamos National Laboratories (invited) . A social hour will conclude the proceedings.

On Saturday morning there will be an optional no-host CONVENTION breakfast, particularly aimed at out-of-area attendees, with the Chairman, President, and members of the Board of Directors and Officers, at the Marriott Hotel

LET US KNOW SOONEST IF YOU PLAN TO ATTEND - IT HELPS US IMMENSELY

Thursday 5 Nov. - SYMPOSIUM sessions, Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel, Vienna,Va.

13:00 - 1600 - SYMPOSIUM sessions on Terrorism, Executive Kidnapping and Russian Organized Crime. Session I Chairman: Ted Shackley (CIA ret)

Thursday 5 November - CONVENTION

1600 - 1800 AFIO CONVENTION General Membership Meeting. Chairman: Bill Kvetkas, AFIO Chairman of the Board. Presentations by AFIO President Peter Earnest and Executive Director Roy Jonkers on the status and progress of the Association.

1830 - 2130 Convention Reception and AFIO Awards Banquet. Dress - coat and tie.

Chairman: AFIO President Peter Earnest.

FRIDAY 6 Nov. 0800 - 1800 - SYMPOSIUM at CIA HEADQUARTERS, McLean, Va.

SYMPOSIUM REGISTRATION 0700 - 0800 AT CIA HQS

Session II - Chairman Peter Earnest (CIA ret)

0800 - 0850 DCI - the Future of CIA and the Intelligence Community

0850 - 0940 HPSCI Chairman - Congressional Perspective on the Future of Intelligence BREAK

1010 - 1100 - Director INR, US Department of State - Intelligence Support to Diplomacy

Session III Chairman: LTG James Williams (USA ret)

1100 - 1145 Director National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) - the Strategic Plan for US Overhead Reconnaissance Intelligence

1145 - 1230 - Director Sandia Laboratories - Emerging Technologies for the new Millenium

LUNCH

1400 - 1450 - Director Financial Crime Center (FINCEN) - Int'l Financial Crime Detection

1450 - 1540 - Director National Security Agency (NSA) - Cyber War Trends and Issues.

BREAK

1600 - 1700 - Director Los Alamos National Laboratories - Non-proliferation and nuclear security

1700 - 1800 - Social Hour. DCI invited to attend.

*******************

Saturday 7 November 98 - 0830 Informal No-Host CONVENTION Breakfast Session with members of the AFIO Board of directors and Executive Officers

Register Early! Let us know if you intend to attend - it helps us with planning! Bring your spouse to the Banquet - the Tysons Corner shopping malls are next door.

FEES:

1) CONVENTION AND SYMPOSIUM combined package price $225 ( including General Membership meeting, Reception, Banquet, Friday lunch and Social Hour at CIA).

2) SYMPOSIUM ONLY (Thursday 5 Nov 1 - 4pm, Friday 6 Nov 8am - 6 pm) - (includes lunch and social hour) (NO Convention) - $145.

3) CONVENTION ONLY (Thursday 4 PM - 10 PM), including Banquet - (NO Symposium) - $100.

HOTEL - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel - 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna Va - 703 734 3200 Ask for weekend rate. No bloc of rooms has been set aside or reserved. RESERVE early! The front-desk rate quoted was $ 84 per night.

- NORTHEAST FLORIDA CHAPTER MEETING - AFIO applauds the first organizational Dinner Meeting of the "emerging" Northeast Florida/Southern Georgia Chapter on Friday 11 September 1998. Our hats are off to Bishop Melli and his crew, and also to the SUNCOAST Chapter (Bob Savallesh and Nat Aldermann) for their outstanding support to this invaluable initiative.

The meeting will be held in the private Astula room of the Holiday Inn in Palatka, on the beautiful St John's river, at 6:00 pm. There will be an Open Bar, the famous Seafood and Carved Beef Buffet, all-you-can-eat shrimp, crab-legs, fish, etc. at $12.95.

There also will be an interesting after-dinner speaker, Brigadier General William A. Webb (USAF (ret), an Asia expert, who will speak on China and its role as an international power. A short business meeting will conclude the evening. All area members and prospective members are invited! LAST CALL - For reservations or information, contact Col Barney Barco (352) 475 2351, or email <bmbarco@juno.com.

-CHAPTER MEMBERSHIP INCENTIVE - The GRANT Chapter, Missoula, Montana, has an active speaker program and is providing special incentives to new members. Contact President Charlie Crookshanks <reddog@bigsky.net>.

TAPS - Richard A. Sampson, Vice President of AFIO's San Diego Chapter, died 30 July 1998 at the age of 71. After service in the Navy in the 1940's and later as an Army Reserve officer, he served with distinction in the Central Intelligence Agency's Office of Security for 25 years, retiring in 1976. After two further decades in private industry, he retired again as Director of Security for GDE Systems Inc., but remained active as Adjunct Professor at Webster University's San Diego campus, and as AFIO Chapter VP. We bid farewell to a valued colleague. (ref. Darryl Thibault, San Diego Chapter President 619 233 0020)

INTELLIGENCE PAMPHLET - Dr. John Macartney has updated his AFIO Monograph primer on the US Intelligence Community. He is willing to send it free to Professors as an email attachment. It is 41 pages and takes about 420KB in Wordperfect 6. Note that it will NOT be useable in any other program such as MS Word, because of all the clip art, text boxes, etc. Dr. Macartney will retain copyright, but will extend free useage for educational use, when asked. He is also looking for feedback since he is working to expand the monograph into a short book. He is inviting comments and critiques. Contact him at <jdmac@erols.com>. The updated monograph can also be obtained from AFIO. Send check for $10 to: AFIO (Monograph), 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean Va 22101-4533.

- PCIC EXPO - Career Development for Intelligence Professionals - will be held 11-12 November, 1998, Tysons Corner Marriott, 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna, Va. Check <pcic@pcic.net> or call Lori Tugman at 703 379 8400 for attendance, exhibiting or advertising. SPECIAL INCENTIVE - AFIO members wishing to purchase commercial exhibit space will receive a special discount.

- JOB WANTED - Experienced and seasoned professional, with long residences in Indonesia, Japan and Italy, who speaks the languages and knows the cultures, is looking for appropriate consulting or job opportunity. Contact <afio@afio.com>

-JOBS OFFERED - CIA advertises "The Ultimate International Experience" in the clandestine service for extraordinary individuals who want more than a job. Refer the qualified and the curious to CIA's website at <www.odci.gov/cia> .

- NOTE - The WIN commentaries are produced by the AFIO WINs Editor and Executive Director Roy Jonkers. Contributions by others, notably by RADM Don Harvey and Dr. John Macartney, are clearly identified.

- NOTE - WIN re-transmission is not permitted without specific AFIO concurrence, except for individual single instances for recruiting a new AFIO member.

- NOTE: AFIO MEMBERSHIP or associate membership is open to US citizens who subscribe to AFIO's principles and objectives - see AFIO's Homepage www.afio.com.

EVERY MEMBER RECRUIT (at least one) NEW MEMBER(S)!

Recruit a friend or acquaintance - do your part for AFIO and its objectives. Get credit for sponsoring new members!

Let us know if you have a receptive prospect - we'll be pleased to send him/her a membership application. We need new members to keep AFIO healthy and on course - -

For back issues, updated periodically, see the AFIO Homepage www.afio.com.