AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue
14 April 1998
AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance
services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need
WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of
articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN
re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN
WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage
SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
- Member's Missives
SECTION IV - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services
SECTION I. HARVEY'S NUGGETS
- 1999 BUDGET INCLUDES SMALL SAT PROGRAM FUNDING - The first major funding of
the smallsat program is going to purchase a system with a sensor blending
synthetic aperture radar (SAR) with moving target indicator (MTI) capabilities.
Smallsats with this capability are intended to supplement the USAF E-8 Joint
Stars airborne radar by looking well beyond the aircraft's 300 mile range, and
for cueing other sensors. Costing a "couple of hundred million dollars," to be
split among DARPA, the NRO and the Air Force, the program will be a
two-satellite demonstration undertaking.The reporting sources did not address
processing and fusion of the new data into existing data streams.
SECTION II JONKERS' BULLETS
- GLOBAL ARMS SALES - Since the end of the Cold War, the US has become
dominant in the international arms market, illustrating in hard numbers the
shift in power and world influence. US arms sales went up from approximately $9
Billion in 1989 to almost $14 Billion in 1996, a 50% increase. During the same
time, Russian arms sales dropped from $22 Billion in 1989 to $3 Billion in 1996,
a decline of 87%.
Thus while the Soviets exceeded the US in arms sales in 1989 by 22 to 9, the
US now exceeds Russia by 14 to 3.
During the same period, Chinese arms deliveries dropped from about $3 Billion
in 1989 to $600 Million in 1996, an 80% drop. France and Britain maintained
their sales totals during the period, while Germany and Italy both decreased
their sales of arms. (AF Mag Feb98, p 17) (RJ)
- SUDAN - A recent newspaper photo depicted a starving mother and child in
the Southern Sudan, reminiscent of the photo that provided the impetus for our
Somalia adventure. Civil war has been raging in the Southern Sudan since 1983,
and has cost an estimated one million lives thus far. Currently the continuing
turmoil is causing a threat of severe malnutrition and starvation for the 4
million inhabitants - mostly Dinka tribesmen - of the region. The military
government in Khartoum refuses to grant autonomy to the South, and it's troops
occupy the garrison towns and cities. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army,
deeply divided among themselves, have been unable to win a decisive victory, but
the struggle has caused great dislocations among the population. The rebel
leader, John Garang, has agreed to a cease fire on humanitrian grounds, and
international agencies are appealing for money for food and seed for future
crops. This is partly a religious war - Muslim dominated Government versus
Christianized tribesmen - and a tribal war, deep in the heart of Africa, in an
area with few roads, no electricity, no communications and little or no
atributes of modern societies.The US geopolitical and intelligence stakes are
low, and the outcome will be determined by the normal politics of
humanitarianism, unless warped by photos of starving children. (WT 9 Ap 98 p
- INTELLIGENCE WHISTLE BLOWERS - the Senate voted 93 - 1 in March '98 to
create further havoc in the US Intelligence Community by allowing employees to
run to Congressmen with their complaints without informing their supervisors.
CIA Inspector General Frederick R. Hitz, who will retire at the end of April,
informally proposed that the measure should be modified to require that the
complainant should first report the case to the IG's office. The IG should then
have 30 to 60 days to complete an investigation and report the findings to the
Agency as well as to the whistleblower and the Oversight Committee. He advocated
solving the problem through regulation rather than legislation. Hitz said his
idea was not blessed by the executive branch, but was made by him because he had
"only thirty days left."
The issue arose because of Congressional sensitivities were affronted when
the CIA removed the security clearances of a State Department employee who had
passed classified information on a Guatemalan military officer, allegedly with
CIA ties, allegedly involved in the murder of an American citizen, to a
Congressional committee. The House Intelligence Committee has reservations about
the Senate approach. There is hope yet that reason will prevail. (Wpost 31 Mar
98 p A3) (RJ)
- COLOMBIA - The Colombian army is not doing well in combat with the Southern
Bloc of the Revolutionary Armed forces of Colombia (FARC). In a recent battle in
the southern province of Caquetta one of their units took a severe mauling and
lost numerous dead and prisoners. The guerillas are making bolder moves, such as
blocking roads only 50 miles from Bogota. The internal conflict has cost as much
as $12 Billion and caused some 40,000 deaths from 1990 onward. The generals have
been accused of sending troops into the jungle who were untrained, with little
back-up, and on the basis of poor intelligence, against an underestimated enemy.
The army's tactical problems, however, are not the whole story of what is going
on in Colombia. The country suffers not only from FARC guerillas, it also has
para-military forces engaged in various fights and raids. On balance, the recent
press coverage about the Colombia's army problems appear to presage additional
arms and intelligence support from the US. (Economist 14 Mar p 36, ( RJ)
SECTION III - MEMBER's MISSIVES
- RUSSIAN COMMERCIAL SATELLITE IMAGES - The film from a Russian imaging
satellite launched 17 February and recovered at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in
Kazakhstan on 3 April, will be processed, digitized and available for commercial
sale for prices ranging from $8.95 to $24.95 each, depending on the size of the
area covered. Resolution is two-meters or better, enough to pick out a house
within a neighborhood. Before ordering, customers can preview coverage on the
so-called "terraserver," at <www.terraserver.com> a joint project
involving, aside from the commercial arm of the Russian Space Agency, Microsoft,
Kodak, DEC and others. It is allegedly the highest resolution film made
available commercially thus far. The first mission covered the southeastern
United States. Three more missions are planned for coast-to-coast coverage of
the US this year. (Reuters 5 April 98, contributed by R. Forno)
SECTION IV - BOOKS, SERVICES &
1. BOOKS & REFERENCES
- BAY OF PIGS (continued) - Theodore Draper (NYR article 14 August 97)
questioned the CIA's continued viability (agency in search of a mission), based
on the end of the Soviet threat and the academic incompatibility between
democracy and intelligence activities. As part of a "letter to the editor"
response, Professor Bradford Westerfield (Yale) not only provided an articulate
rejoinder, but also offered some further interesting aspects of the Bay of Pigs
He notes that a close reading of Richard Bissell's memoir and other articles
indicate strongly that Castro was supposed to be dead by the time of the
landing, and that this was the reason that Bissell was willing to accept the
increased exposure (decrease of cover) of the operation - thereby crippling its
prospects for success. " I infer that Bissell became buoyant enough about this
progress toward assassination that he saw it as offsetting the risks of
President Kennedy's "anti-noisiness" cutbacks (indeed Kennedy's own insistence
on he cutbacks may well have been buoyed by the same closely held secret
knowledge) . This came exactly at the same time (mid-March) that the CIA's
poison was transferred to the Cuban who was to administer it to Castro." When
the assassination did not succeed, the plan carried on by its own momentum.
Slowly the pieces of puzzle may be falling into place. (NYR, 23 Oct 97, page 76)
- CHURCHIL AND THE SECRET SERVICE, by David Stafford, 386 pages, Overlook
Press $35.00. Stafford documents the history and the results of Churchill's
fascination with intelligence operations, and shows how this made a crucial
contribution to victory in World War II. Mr. Stafford's splendid book is a
valuable addition to intelligence history. (WT 4 Feb p. A13) (RJ)
- HITLER: THE PATHOLOGY OF EVIL, " by George Victor. For history buffs still
contemplating Adolph Hitler's incomprehensible and self-destructive blunders in
political and military decisionmaking. A brilliant study in leadership. A
must-read for intelligence analysts. ISBN 1-57488-132-9, Brassey's 1998
- BETWEEN SERB AND ALBANIAN: A History of Kosovo, by Miranda Vickers,
Columbia Univ. Press, 352 pages, $47.50. A timely book for adding a modicum of
depth to understanding the latest "crise du jour."
2. SERVICES TO MEMBERS
- AFIO OFFERS VIDEOS TO CHAPTERS AND ACADEMICS - Chapters and University
Professors may borrow AFIO-produced videos free except for the cost of postage
and handling ($5.00). The first video is by DAVID MURPHY, containing his
presentation to AFIO discussing his recent book, The Battle of Berlin; the
second video contains a talk by retired KGB Major General KALUGIN covering some
of his experiences in the Soviet KGB counterintelligence directorate.
- AFIO offers new service, THE AFIO Z-GRAM, a DAILY quick-scan, useful
overview of news from the World press gleaned from the internet. Particularly
valuable for researchers and corporate individuals using the internet data bases
as a resource. Exceptionally well done and widely praised. Subscription for
DAILY service (5 times week) only $98 year, of which $40 is tax-deductible
donation. Mail check made out to AFIO and provide name/address/email to: AFIO,
6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303a, McLean Va 22101-4533.
- CIA WEBSITE FOR KIDS - The homepage features codes and ominous warnings and
a link to enter the "Kids Secret Zone" where there are history, geography and
other quizzes. The site is at:
3. SERVICES BY MEMBERS
- John Macartney, who ten years ago wrote AFIO Monograph #7 entitled
"Intelligence: What It Is and How to Use It, " has produced an updated version.
About 40 pages long, it is used as a basic "primer" in class readings at the
three Service academies as well as the JFK School ot Harvard, Syracuse U and
American U. It is available to Chapters and Professors for $10.00.
- Michael Ryan successfully employs game-playing study aids in his
intelligence-related classes. You may contact him at <the
4. APPEAL TO MEMBERS - PEARL HARBOR JUSTICE
- This year, the USS Pearl Harbor will be commissioned in San Diego on May
30th (Memorial Day). And on September 2nd, the USS Missouri will be permanently
berthed at Pearl Harbor to commemorate the end of WW II hostilities.
But there is on piece of unfinished business -- the vindication of the two
US commanders in Hawaii at the time of the Japanese attack, Admiral H. Kimmel
and Lieutenant General Walter Short,USA. Both were made scapegoats, blamed for
the success of the Japanese attack, and retired at reduced rank. History has
exonerated them. That judgment needs to be confirmed. There is a need to restore
their honor for the sake of family, legacies and descendants, and for the common
honor, by giving them justice by posthumous advancement on the military's
retired lists. You can help by contacting your senators or representatives NOW
to persuade the Secretary of Defense to get this injustice reversed before the
ceremonies in May and September.
5. POSITIONS WANTED or AVAILABLE
See AFIO Homepage <www.afio.com> for previous weeks' items.
6. AFIO CHAPTER AND MEMBER NEWS
- The AFIO Suncoast Chapter reports that they have invited college students
to their chapter meetings with good success. An excellent way to advance AFIO
educational objectives! Kudos to Bob Savallesh and his chapter.
- Bob Bannerman, former CIA Security Chief, has had a "miraculous " recovery
from a bout of dementia brought on by allergic reaction to medicines, and would
like to hear from old friends. <CNMSRBCH@aol.com>
- Walter Pforzheimer, sometimes known as Chief Sitting Bull, is reported
recovering well from his stroke and in good spirits.
7. IN MEMORIAM - information provided on members who have left us
- Frank C. Smith, formerly with NSA (1948 -1979) and longtime AFIO member,
died 21 March 1998
8. AFIO CALENDAR
- AFIO Symposium - US Intelligence Priorities Survey - 20 May 1998 - 0730
Distinguished speakers from CIA, FBI, DIA, Congressional Staff
Tysons Corner Marriott, 0730 - 1600.
Send check for $99 (AFIO members and guests) or $129 (others) to AFIO
- AFIO Luncheon - 1 June 1998 - 1030 - 1400
Admiral Wm Studeman, former DDCI, and Professor James Chandler.
Send check for $26 (AFIO members and guests) or $29 (others) to AFIO
- AFIO Luncheon - 14 September 98. Speakers to be announced.
- AFIO Convention and Symposium, Miami Beach Convention Center, 19-21
November 1998. Themes: Counterintelligence; Economic Espionage and Counter
Espionage. Mark your calendars and make plans to attend!
NOTE: The AFIO Convention is hosted at the Convention Center by The Corporate
Intelligence Conference of the Americas, a conference endorsed by AFIO and
supported by Fred Rustmann of the local AFIO chapter. AFIO has mailed out a
circular on the Corporate Conference to its members. The Corporate Conference
will address business intelligence (What is it? How do you get it? and How do
you protect it?) and will be run independently from the AFIO Convention with a
separate registration and different fees.
The AFIO Convention will be in a separate facility within the Convention
Center with a separate program. Arrangements for hotel rooms at favorable rates
are being made. The Hospitality Room will be in the hotel.
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