AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 40
20 October 1998

WIN's contain intelligence-related commentaries based on open-source material researched and produced by AFIO Executive Director & WIN Editor Roy Jonkers.


KOSSOVO - The following is excerpted or paraphrased (except for the postscipt) from a recent research paper by the DCI's Interagency Balkan Task Force on Kossovo, and presented as contextual intelligence and to serve as background for understanding Serb and Kossovar policies.

As in the Middle East, tribal or national claims on territory go back a long time - sometimes thousands of years - and memories are long. Kossovo was a part of the Serbian central heartland from the twelfth through the fourteenth centuries AD. On 28 June 1389 the invading Moslem Turks defeated the Serbs in the battle of Kosovo Polje, west of Pristina. This marked the end of Serbian glory days and the beginning of centuries of struggle against neighbors bent on dominating Serbia. No date or place is therefore dearer to Serbians.

In the fifteenth century the Turks conquered the Serbian and Albanian lands and started what is now called 'ethnic cleansing' Christian Orthodox Serbs out of Kossovo in favor of Muslims. Serbia did not regain Kossovo until 1912.Both Serbs and Albanians emigrated from the area during the past forty years, as it was an economic backwater, and a flashpoint between Serbian and Albanian nationalism. Following the death of Tito in 1980, the now predominantly Albanian population commenced demonstrations to force the Yugoslav Government to recognize the province as a federal republic, on an equal footing with the six existing republics. The Central Government declined, declared a state of emergency and sent in troops. In 1986 Slobodan Milosevic rose to power in the Serbian Communist Party, accusing Kossovo Albanians of genocide against Serbs. In 1989 Belgrade stripped Kossovo of its autonomous province status. The Kossovars responded by voting for independence in 1991. This was nowhere recognized. The Central Government increased its police presence.

Postscript - in 1998 KLA guerrillas - newly armed by Albanians abroad and from the armories of the Albanian army, started killing Serb police and others in outlying villages and proclaiming plans for a Greater Albania. Reinforced Serbian police units launched counter-operations. This received a bad press. US mass media propaganda vociferously attacked Milosevic and Serbs - so blatant that it evoked letters to the editor from uninvolved readers for the obviously slanted coverage. NATO and the US forced Serb units to withdraw. KLA sharpshooters with sniper rifles are now reported by news media ready to resume killing Serbs. A political solution is sought. The US intelligence budget for Balkan intelligence collection and analysis has been significantly increased. ("Kossovo: History of a Balkan Hotspot" Office of the DCI Interagency Balkan Task Force (OREA IR 98-40234); Ltr to Editor, Wpost 17 Oct 98, p A19) (RoyJ)

CHINA NATIONAL DEFENSE WHITE PAPER 1998 - Last July the Chinese government released a White Paper called "China's National Defense." It states that China is committed to a national defensive policy that is Defensive in nature, that it will Not use Nuclear weapons first, and that it will Not use nuclear weapons against Non-nuclear nations and regions. It further states that work in defense will be subordinated to overall Economic development, and dwells on the great importance China attaches to International security cooperation by carrying out exchanges with foreign armed forces and participating in multi-lateral and bilateral security dialogues.

China has published defense spending of about $10 Billion, of which, it is said, 35% goes to supporting personnel costs. It is in the process of reducing the size of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to 2.5 million men. (China 2000, Oct 98 p5, National Def. Univ of China) (RoyJ)

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM 1997 - The number of terrorist incidents in 1997 was only slightly higher than in 1996, when recorded incidents were fewer than at any time since 1971. A total of 304 international terrorist incidents were recorded in 1997, including 123 anti-US events. The bulk of the anti-US incidents took place in Latin America (97 out of 123).

The number of 1997 worldwide casualties declined to 221 ( down from 314 in 1996). Although US citizens and facilities were the targets of approximately 40 percent of worldwide terrorist attacks, only 7 US citizens lost their lives in these incidents in 1997.

Carrying on the trend of the last several years, terrorists in 1997 carried out the majority of their attacks against civilian and business targets (90%) rather than against increasingly well-protected government and military installations (10%) . Most of the worldwide terrorist events involved bombing, kidnapping or armed attack. The bulk of the casualties of worldwide incidents were foreign nationals in Asia and the Middle East.

NOTE: US personnel and funding allocations to anti-terrorism have risen dramatically over the past few years. ("International Terrorism in 1997: A Statistical View," by the DCI Counter Terrorist Center (CTC) (RoyJ)

COLD WAR BALLOON INTELLIGENCE - The UK has released information on Project 119L revealing details about the US/UK aerial photo reconnaissance being conducted in the early and mid-1950's over the Soviet Union, in response to a desperate need for information about the Soviets. The US program used 128 feet-wide balloons, as high as 20-story buildings, carrying a 400 lbs gondola packed with photographic equipment. The US spent $68 million producing about 3,500 balloons, to be launched from England, Germany, Turkey and Norway. The cover story was that these were meteorological experiments.

The balloons were designed to fly at 40,000 - 60,000 feet, above the intercept altitudes of Soviet fighters at the time. On departing Soviet territory they were recovered by USAF C-119 aircraft, which sent a radio signal causing the gondola to detach itself from the balloon. By February 1956 the US had launched 461 balloons. Most never made it across the Iron Curtain, blown off-course or shot down. Some 42 gondolas were recovered, for a net recovery rate of 10 percent. The project was terminated in February 1956, not so much because the Soviets were displaying downed balloons as evidence of a concerted US/NATO spying campaign, but because of poor results. (The Times, London, 10 Aug 98; The Telegraph, London Aug 10, 98) (RoyJ)


BLACK TULIP, Milt Bearden, Random House, 1998, $24.95. The novel is a fine read in two respects: as an insight into how the war in Afghanistan was fought and as a novel that is many cuts above most thrillers. The title derives from a Russian soldier killed while clutching in his hand a rare black tulip. Thereafter, to disillusioned soldiers, dead comrades were "black tulips."

Although Mr. Bearden is writing "fiction," much of his book describes the realities of his years as the CIA's man in charge of the Afghan campaign. Milt Bearden was a seasoned veteran of covert operations in Asia and Europe when CIA Director Casey gave him Afghanistan, and what he did there shows what CIA can accomplish when bystanders stand aside and let men do their work. Bearden describes how the CIA supplied the guerrillas with the hardware that enabled them to chew a vastly stronger Soviet force to ribbons. He also deals with the myriad rivalries that beset the many resistance groups. Where else but in Afghanistan would a crafty chieftain invite foes to a "peace dinner" and leave them eating roast goat stuffed with plastic explosives?

Bearden also plunges headlong into the insider stuff about counterintelligence, the handling of agents-in-place in Moscow, and the art of coaxing potential defectors to take that final step to the "other side" that makes the novel a truly engrossing espionage read. This novel is highly recommended - four cloaks, four daggers. It's a pity that the story of the CIA triumph in Afghanistan is told only in fiction form. (Excerpted with permission from a review by AFIO member Author Joseph C. Goulden, WTimes 4 Oct 98 page B7)


CIA WEB SITE - new items include:

1) IG Report of Investigation regarding allegations of connections between CIA and the Contras in cocaine trafficking to the US, Vol II: The Contra Story (Oct 8)

2) Article on CIA, NRO and the Air Force Celebrate the U-2: A Revolution in Intelligence (28 Sep)

3) Speech by Robert Walpole, NIO for Strategic and Nuclear Programs. (Sep 17)

INSIDE THE FBI - A two-hour special television presentation of A&E's 'Investigative Reports' will provide an exclusive in-depth look at the modern operations of the FBI. The program will include coverage of the FBI missions of counterintelligence, counter-terrorism, kidnapping and cyber crime. It will be hosted by Bill Kurtis on 1 November from 9 - 11 p.m. on the A&E Television Network.

SISTERHOOD OR SPIES AUTHOR - - AFIO member and Author Betty McIntosh (former OSS) will discuss her new book "Sisterhood of Spies," at Borders Books on Sunday in Gaithersburg, Md - 10/25 at 7:30 pm. Recommended! (per Ned Dolan)

ARTICLES SOLICITED - The Fall 1998 issue of the AFIO "Intelligencer" was mailed out recently. As you can see, it's been expanded to 24 pages and includes five articles submitted by our readers. The next issue will be prepared in late November and we are looking for inputs from readers. We prefer articles and book reviews about intelligence of 1000 to 3000 words. Submit by e-mail if possible, to <>. Alternatively, mail your article to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean Va 22101. Enclose a computer disk if you can. (Intelligencer editors)

COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT INFO NEEDED - Tim Nagle is collecting information on older communication equipments used by the OSS and early CIA. He currently needs info on the RS-6 set used during the '60's. There is some debate on its origins and use. He is looking for any members who are willing to provide background information. Contact <>, or tel 651 736 5886 (day).

PCIC SYMPOSIUM - Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community (PCIC) is a two-day symposium on career development for intelligence and security professionals, plus job fair expo of industry and agency employment recruiters. Included are workshops, seminars and exhibits, along with Government and Industry talent scouts. The second PCIC symposium will be held at the Tysons Corner Marriott hotel on Rte 7 (Leesburg Pike) in Vienna Virginia on 11 and 12 November. The highly successful first PCIC symposium was attended by 600 participants and 33 exhibiting recruiters. The fee is modest, the seminars are excellent. Highly recommended. Get more info on the who/what/when/where at the PCIC Home Page <http:/>.

MARYLAND UNIVERSITY - sponsors a College Embassy series of discussions. The event is free. Contact AFIO member Jamie Bisher at <>.

AUSTRALIA - Joe Ilardi, senior Constable of Police attached to the Criminal Intelligence Unit of the Victoria (Australia) Police, extends an invitation to AFIO members planning a visit to Australia to consider delivering a University guest lecture. Contact Lawrence Sulc at <> if interested.

LAST CALL FOR AFIO SYMPOSIUM - On 5 and 6 November 1998 AFIO will conduct a Symposium on National Intelligence Policy and Technology. US citizens who are members of AFIO and other intelligence associations, as well as US members of professional, academic and business entities and corporations, are invited to attend. Guests are welcome.

This is a unique opportunity to listen to the National senior intelligence leadership speak authoritatively at the unclassified level, and to visit CIA headquarters. The Symposium agenda was provided in WIN#37. All speakers are confirmed

AFIO CONVENTION - In conjunction with this Symposium AFIO also conduct its National Convention and Awards Banquet on 5 November at the TYSONS CORNER MARRIOTT Hotel, and on 7 November with a breakfast meeting. Members, Associate Members and guests are cordially invited.

The Awards Banquet KEYNOTE SPEAKER will be Mr Keith Melton, author of books on spycraft and artifacts - collector of the world's largest intelligence memorabilia collection (now on display at CIA).


1) SYMPOSIUM ONLY contribution/donation ( 5 Nov at Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel; Friday 6 Nov at CIA HEADQUARTERS- - - $145.

2) CONVENTION RECEPTION AND BANQUET ONLY contribution/donation (Thursday 6:30 PM - 10 PM) Reception and Awards Banquet - -- $100.

(NOTE: No fee for those attending only the General Membership & Chapter Meetings Thursday 4 pm - 6pm - but we need to know who is coming)

3) CONVENTION AND SYMPOSIUM combined package contribution/donation - $225

SEND check for the desired amount, made out to "AFIO", along with name, organization, address and telephone number (email if available) and Social Security number (for access to CIA) to : AFIO, 6723 Whittier Avenue, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533. We must receive registrations with SSN's for admission to CIA by 29 October.

For further information: EMAIL TO: <> or call 703 790 0320

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- NOTE - Recruit a "buddy" campaign - every member recruit one new member! US citizens supporting a strong and healthy US intelligence system are eligible for Associate membership.

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