Weekly Intelligence Notes #41-03 21 November 2003
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced by AFIO for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. Don Harvey contributed to this report.
NOTE TO AFIO MEMBERS -- The office has realigned assignments to recommence the careful evaluation and interpretation of fast-breaking intelligence news to be covered in each week's WIN. Thank you for your patience, and the many emails, cards, packages, and letters to AFIO.
U.N. REPORT: SANCTIONS ON AL QAIDA FAILING -- An expert group established by the UN Security Council last January to monitor the success of sanctions against 272 individuals and entities linked to al Qaida and the Taliban regime has concluded that the only thing holding al Qaida back from using chemical and biological weapons is its lack of technical expertise. The "confidential" report obtained by the AP recently said the terrorists have already decided to use these weapons in future attacks. The UN sanctions include the freezing of assets, a travel ban, and an arms embargo.
While "important progress has been made toward cutting off al Qaida financing," the report said serious loopholes remain that enable the terrorist network to funnel money to operatives. "Al Qaida continues to receive funds it needs from charities, deep pocket donors, and business and criminal activities, including the drug trade," it said. Sanctions are failing in part because many governments refuse to add names to the sanctions list, even though some 4,000 individuals in 102 countries have been arrested or detained. Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Yemen reported the arrest of individuals linked to al Qaida and the Taliban yet in most cases they did not submit the names to be put on the sanctions list. And even some on the list have been allowed to travel and evade sanctions. The expert group called on the Security Council to adopt a new resolution requiring all 191 member states to enforce sanctions.
The latest spate of terrorist attacks against Moslem populaces may prod some of the Middle Eastern states to more effective actions; one could even hope for more extensive and prompt intelligence sharing. While this may have a too-optimistic ring, it should be noted that even the Security Council's own experts' report says that unless the UN requires its members to enforce the sanctions, its role in fighting terrorism "risks becoming marginalized." Americans may detect a familiar ring in those words. [D. Harvey // NYT, 15 Nov '03 via AP]
HOUSE SEEKS FASTER IRAQ INTEL REVIEW - "It wasn't flawed. There wasn't enough of it" -- This week, during a debate over a nonbinding bill authorizing 2004 intelligence activities, the House urged intelligence agencies to speed up internal reviews of pre war intelligence on Iraq. In open partisan differences on the panel, Democrats criticized the intelligence Bush used to make his case for war. The CIA maintains that its handling of prewar intelligence was sound, and is supported by some Republicans who agree that gaps in intelligence existed but stress that the committee's review isn't complete. An internal review is underway by a team led by Richard Kerr [retired senior analyst and former DDCI] and Tenet ordered that it be expanded to include not only agencies' finished analysis, but also raw reports collected by CIA and other agencies. Rep. Ray LaHood, R-Ill., said criticism of intelligence personnel "is a little despicable." Both House and Senate are working on similar Bills and both versions instruct CIA Director George Tenet to report on lessons learned from handling of prewar intelligence on Iraq. Tenet has a year to provide the report from the moment the bill is signed. The House agreed to Harman's proposal to change the bill's language, requiring the report be completed quickly. Committee Chairman Porter Goss, R-Fla, supported Harman's proposal, although he said adjustments had already been made because of lessons learned, "some of which have been very painful, some of which have not been." Intelligence work will be analyzed for some time. "...we will be doing lessons learned forever," Goss said. In later interviews, Goss acknowledged gaps in prewar intelligence but contends that many of the problems were due to the failure to finance intelligence agencies adequately in the 1990s and restrictions imposed on intelligence work. "It wasn't flawed," he said. "There wasn't enough of it." [AP, WPost, MSNBC]
LOW-YIELD NUCLEAR DEVICES -- Through the recent approval of the FY 2004 Defense Authorization Act, Congress is effectively lifting a ban on a decade-long policy prohibiting the Research and Development (R&D) of low-yield (less than 5 kilotons-kt) nuclear devices. The low-yield nuclear weapon -- while only 1/3 of the size of the yield dropped on Hiroshima, Japan -- has been banned since 1993. However under the provisions of FY2004, research will resume and a 5kt weapon is slated to complement America’s existing high-yield nuclear force (which is currently deemed sufficient for many contingencies) albeit at reduced levels. In addition to this renewed focus on developing a more tactical nuclear device than is currently deployed in U.S. arsenals, the new congressional authorizations provide, approximately:
· $6 million for an Advanced Concepts Initiative (ACI) which would begin certain studies of weapons-related science and technologies. This effort would consist of small groups of weapons personnel at Los Alamos, Livermore, and Sandia laboratories focusing on exploring new nuclear weapons designs, training the next generation of scientists and engineers, and conducting advanced computer simulations and modeling of the improved technologies.
· $15 million to continue a study of the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator, an existing bomb that would be converted into a weapon able to penetrate the ground before detonating and improving its ability to destroy buried targets. Due to the growing emphasis on hardened and deeply buried targets (HDBT), this provision provides for research to be conducted to develop an improved Earth penetrating weapon that would facilitate total destruction of these targets at significantly lower yields.
· $25 million to enable the U.S. to expedite the process of initiating a nuclear explosive test. AKA the “test readiness posture,” it is the maximum time between a presidential order to conduct a nuclear test and the test itself. Since 1996, the U.S. posture has been 24 to 36 months. From FY2004, the Administration will receive these funds to maintain this posture and to begin changing it to 18 months. [actual testing and production will require further congressional authorization, however]
These four new provisions have risen out of a concerted effort by the current presidential administration to reconfigure and reconstitute U.S. nuclear capabilities to meet 21st century global security threats. In December of 2001, the DoD concluded its protracted and comprehensive analysis of the capability, sustainability, and plausibility of the nation’s nuclear forces in what has come to be known as the Nuclear Posture Review. The conclusions of the review, findings upon which this dramatic shift in nuclear policy have been grounded, are essentially that the Cold War relationship with Russia is “very inappropriate” and that new threats -- namely terrorism and low intensity conflict -- require innovative nuclear weapons capabilities.
While it is certain these capabilities are designed to enhance the tactical offensive capabilities of the U.S., the question remains whether such policy shifts enhance the nation’s strategic nuclear deterrent. As expected, debate has begun among long-term strategists and Washington’s policy establishment across the political spectrum. Some envisage this capability as an increase in security, deterrence, and our ability to destroy threats, whether from rogue proliferation or otherwise. Yet, some are concerned about disregard for the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the increased likelihood that such weapons will be used, and a general increase in global nuclear proliferation due to a perceived imbalance of power. Nevertheless, what can be assured is that those in the Intelligence community will likely face the most considerable burden in providing a timely and flawless product should these tactical, precision weapons be successfully deployed and or used. (Minor // Medalia, CRS, Nuclear Weapon Initiatives; Oct. 2003)
NIMA NAME CHANGES -- With the signing of the fiscal year 2004 defense authorization bill, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA) will change its name to reflect the agency's new role in providing more than just mapping and imagery. NIMA's new name will be the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). [NIMA Release]
SPYWARE STEPS OUT OF THE SHADOWS TO STEAL CORPORATE SECRETS -- Late in July, an e-mail that hit employee in-boxes at a British credit card and finance company carried a secret payload -- "spyware" capable of recording confidential corporate data and sending it over the Net. Labeled "Wedding Invitation," the e-mail looked at first like spam or an ordinary worm. But consultants at security company Clearswift now believe that the e-mail was part of a targeted attack on the victim company aimed at extracting specific information -- a nightmare scenario in the corporate security world.
(http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1104_2-5108965.html) [Levine, Newsbits 11/19/03].
MI5 TAKES CHARGE OF ONLINE TERROR TIPS -- Britain's MI5, via a new website, is to play greater role in informing UK public about terrorism threats. This website will replace a Home Office site as the hub of government anti-terrorism activities online, Reuters reports. Currently, the MI5 site refers surfers to the Home Office portal for information on terrorism threats.
THINK TANK REQUESTS YOUR HELP WITH SPYWARE -- Center for Democracy and Technology [1634 Eye Street NW, Suite 1100 Washington, DC 20006 (v) 202.637.9800 (f) 202.637.0968 ] urged Americans to submit details about their encounters with spyware, which often comes packaged as an unwanted addition to popular downloads like software for trading music files, reports the Washington Post. Several Web sites, including www.Spywareguide.com and www.Spywareinfo.com, contain detailed listings of programs widely considered to be spyware. Several programs can erase spyware from personal computers, one of the best being the free AdAware from (http://www.lavasoftusa.com/)(http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A58655-2003Nov18.html)
SPYWARE WOULD BE TRICKY TO OUTLAW -- group says
CIA RELEASES FIVE MILLION PAGES OF HISTORICAL RECORDS -- On November 20, the CIA released its most recent additions to the electronic CREST system including approximately 110,000 documents and 1.5 million pages. These 1945 - 1981 records are from all CIA directorates. In fiscal year 2003, the Central Intelligence Agency released more than five million pages of declassified records to the public at the National Archives (NARA) facility in College Park, MD. Already released are 1.5 million pages released on 30 September 2003 in the form of digital images in a full-text searchable database called CREST (CIA REcords Search Tool). The FY 2003 release is in support of Presidential Executive Order (EO) 12958 that provides for automatic declassification of unreviewed records of permanent historical value over 25 years old on December 31, 2006.
WILSON BOOK DEAL SIGNED -- A memoir by former US Ambassador to Iraq Joseph Wilson has been signed by Carroll & Graf publishers. Wilson, the last U.S. diplomat to meet with Saddam Hussein, once offered himself as a guarantee for release of American hostages taken before the first Gulf War. The book is expected to be called The Politics of Truth, and is based on his op-ed New York Times piece called "What I Didn't Find in Africa," to counter Bush's claim that uranium had been purchased from there, to justify the Iraq war. Wilson is husband of an "outed" CIA operations officer -- an event much in the news of late.
PARADOXES OF STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE: ESSAYS IN HONOR OF THE LATE MICHAEL I. HANDEL editors: Richard K. Betts and Thomas G. Mahnken. Released today is the first of an intended 3 volume tribute by Professors Betts and Mahnken [AFIO Member] to celebrate the scholarship and teaching of strategist Handel, former professor of strategy and policy at the US Naval War College. This collection includes contributions by other academics and intelligence officers: Mark M. Lowenthal, Woodrow J. Kuhns, James J. Wirtz, John Ferris, and Uri Bar-Joseph. The paradoxes of analyzing intelligence, surprise and deception are examined, subjects Handel explored during his career. "Military Surprise" discusses methodological dilemmas and problems of perception resulting from a surprise attack, or preparing for one. Wirtz provides his "Theory of Surprise" which asks "Why do states, non-state actors or individuals attempt to surprise their opponents? Why do they often succeed? How does surprise affect strategic interactions, competitions in which the behavior of both sides decides the outcome?" while Woodrow Kuhns examines intelligence failures and the implications for intelligence analysts. Published by Frank Cass [email@example.com or via 800-944-6190] 210 pages hardcover, 0-7146-5471-X for $79.95; or in paperback for $26.95.
INTELLIGENCE IN WAR: KNOWLEDGE OF THE ENEMY FROM NAPOLEON TO AL-QAEDA by John Keegan [Knopf, Nov 03, $30, 448 pages; ISBN 0-375-40053-2. Keegan provides series of case studies in the operational significance of intelligence, ranging from Admiral Nelson's successful pursuit of the French fleet in 1805 Shenandoah Valley campaign, to the employment of electronic intelligence in the naval operations of WWI and its extension and refinement during WWII. Expanding his analysis, Keegan discusses intelligence aspects of the German invasion of Crete, the U.S. victory at Midway and the defeat of the U-boats in the Battle of the Atlantic. A chapter focuses on the importance of human intelligence in providing information on the Nazi V-weapons, and his discussion concludes with a comparison of the difference between a Cold War in which central targets of intelligence gathering were susceptible to concrete, scientific methods, and more recent targets that -- lacking form and organization -- require penetration through understanding. This last leads Keegan to conclude that intelligence data does not guarantee success. The outcomes of war, Keegan believes, are not determined by intelligence, but as a result of fighting.
THE WOMEN WHO LIVED FOR DANGER: THE AGENTS OF THE SPECIAL OPERATIONS EXECUTIVE by Marcus Binney [Morrow, Oct 03, $26.95, 400 pp, photos, index]. In 1940 Churchill created the Special Operations Executive [SOE] to thwart Germans in Europe through subversion. The SOE's women operatives were active in France and Italy, where they served as couriers and wireless operators. They lived -- and died -- as underground agents of the SOE. Some were engaged in the French Resistance and, despite the risk of capture, torture and death at hands of the Gestapo, these women worked to disrupt the enemy through distributing arms and explosives, assisting with the escape efforts of captured servicemen, and providing reliable intelligence to the Allied central military command.
INDEPENDENT CONTRACTOR OPPORTUNITIES AT CIA -- The Office of Public Affairs would like to add two independent contractors (ICs) to its' Public Communications Branch (PCB). PCB receives a high volume of incoming public inquiries, including Internet email, phone calls, letters, and faxes. The volume of email, in particular, has grown significantly since 9/11 and often contains important information that needs immediate attention and response. These are immediate requirements, pending security clearances. Work will be during regular office hours and we can work out individual schedules. We need individuals who have sharp communications skills (particularly verbal) and a true sense of customer service, including; a lot of patience and understanding, persistence in tackling a constant workload, a sense of humor and the ability to identify those communications that deserve further attention elsewhere in the Agency. You will deal directly with the public and answer their inquiries through several communications vehicles. To process emails, OPA has developed a program specifically to speed responses and ease sorting and filing requirements. Duties will be administrative in nature, but not mechanical; sound judgment will be needed in evaluating every communication and response. In this capacity, you can capitalize on your familiarity with the Agency's organization, history and mission, and sensitivities concerning the Agency. Long-term service with the Agency in any capacity would be helpful. If you think communicating with the public on a wide range of topics would be interesting, challenging, and rewarding, then please contact Marie Lambdin, Chief/Public Communications Branch, on (703) 482-7565
EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE - ENSCO JOBS AVAILABLE -- ENSCO, a new AFIO Corporate Partner, is interested in finding qualified AFIO members to possibly fill some of the following positions:
#1296/Sr. Software Engineer Location: Springfield, VA
ENSCO, Inc. provides engineering, science and advanced technology solutions for the defense, intelligence, and transportation industries. The Advance Projects and Applications (APA) Division of ENSCO is located in Springfield, VA. The Division's growing business areas include research and development related to shallow surface geophysics, ground sensor systems, characterization of underground facilities, vulnerability assessments for military bases, and early warning systems for CBRN protection.
ENSCO, Inc. is looking for an individual to assist in the research and development of ground sensors systems for MASINT analysis and early warning systems for CBRN protection. The candidate will develop and implement designs and software for data acquisition, signal processing algorithms, and GIS visualization in support of various tools and methods for sensor monitoring and data correlation.
Required: * Education and/or experience in signal processing and scientific applications development.
* Computer software design, engineering, and C++ programming skills.
* Demonstrated ability to work with other scientists and engineers.
* Good oral and written communications skills.
* Ability to obtain a security clearance upon hiring.
Desired: * System architecture design skills
* Knowledge of data acquisition (analog and/or digital) devices.
* Understanding of digital communications methods, specifically TCP/IP and MSMQ.
* Experience developing software on a Microsoft platform.
* Experience with ArcView applications programming.
* Familiarity with RDBMS applications, specifically Access or SQLServer.
* The ideal candidate will have at least six years of experience in this discipline.
* Current security clearance (Secret good, SCI a plus).
#1298/Sr. Scientist Location: Springfield, VA
Participate in Government funded R&D projects in signal analysis of seismic, acoustic, and electromagnetic signals. Also support new system development for exploiting signals for intelligence applications and fusing data and information derived from other sensors.
Required: Knowledge of acoustic, seismic, and/or electromagnetic signal propagation and sensors. Knowledgeable of signal processing methods for signal analysis. Experience with scientific programming languages (such as C, Fortran) and/or Matlab with signal processing toolbox. Must be able to obtain a Security Clearance upon hiring.
Desired: Hardware experience with seismic, acoustic, and electromagnetic sensors. Field experience in collection of sensor data. Experience in presentation of scientific results in briefings and written papers and reports. BS or MS in Physics, Geophysics, or Electrical Engineering desired. Current Secret Clearance preferred.
Send Resumes and find several more similar job openings via the following link: www.ensco.com/jobs -- Please include the Job Number or Title (if applicable) that interests you in your cover letter as it is listed on the posting (example, Staff Systems Analyst/#1005).
TO REMIND -- JONKERS MEMORIAL SERVICE: A Memorial Service and Burial -- with full honors -- has been scheduled by the Jonkers Family for 2 December 2003 at 1 p.m. at Arlington National Cemetery. Details on whether it will be in the Old or New Chapel will be announced in a later WIN.
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