AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #42-18 dated 6 November 2018

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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Obituaries

Obituaries

Section V - Events

Upcoming AFIO Events

Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events 

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors: ec, po, mh, km, gh, mk, rd, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th, ed, and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.
CAVEATS: IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse research inquiries, career announcements, or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding, and should verify the source independently before supplying any resume, career data, or personal information.]
If you are having difficulties with the links or viewing this newsletter when it arrives by email, members may view the latest edition each week at this link. You will need your LOGIN NAME and your PASSWORD.

Assassins Inc.: The Kremlin's Secret Squad of Killers
Podcast series discusses Russian wet affairs operations around the world.

Entire 5-part podcast series is now available for streaming and downloading. The series — Assassins Inc. — is by J.J. Green of WTOP.

In March 2016, WTOP national security correspondent J.J. Green began investigating the suspicious deaths of Russian diplomats and others around the world linked, in some way, to the Kremlin. Some of them died in the US ― in New York and DC. The deaths of some were deemed "natural." Others were obviously murdered. The investigation, which also examined failed assassination attempts, revealed a persistent pattern and a recurrent scheme, involving money, power, and revenge. In the WTOP podcast series, "Assassins Inc.," dozens of people, including victims, their family members, diplomats, journalists, US intelligence, US law enforcement officials and sources, members of Congress, and experts were interviewed to gain a better understanding of how this deadly ring of killers operates.

Part One: The Adelphi Affair ― Unsolved: The mysterious shooting of Paul Joyal, a former federal law enforcement officer, is attacked by two strange men outside his home in Adelphi, MD. The audio can be streamed or downloaded.

Part Two: The Russian Assassin's Business Model. Vladimir Putin, the connection between a shooting in Adelphi and a murder in London.

Part Three: The Russian Assassin's Business Model. A foiled plot that blew the lid off of one the Kremlin's secret squad of killers.

Part Four: Russia's Deadly Threat to the West. 'Those who are at the top are hiding in Russia ... beyond reach ... '

Part Five: A hotel in Dupont Circle was the scene of the suspicious death of a Russian former military intelligence officer

Read the complete "Assassins Inc.: The Kremlin's secret squad of killers" series

     

NOTICES

WORTH VIEWING: Mini-documentary of Role of Women in Intelligence — From OSS to the Modern CIA

OSS Society mini-documentary on Women in OSS to CIA

The OSS Society released this impressive 15-minute historical mini-documentary of the role women have played in OSS
thru CIA's appointment of its new director, Gina Haspel. Second half of program provides Haspel's upbringing and various comments by those who worked with her within the Agency and IC. Underscores her abilities to lead at the Tip of the Spear.
Click image above to view. Superb production values. This was part of the recent OSS Society Dinner held earlier this month.


MEMBERS — ELECTIONS HAVE OPENED FOR AFIO BOARD 2019-2022
Please Cast Your Vote Now
AFIO National Board Elections have started for terms running 2019 thru 2022. 
Printed ballots were also sent to all members with the Fall 2018 edition of Intelligencer journal. That issue should be reaching members the weeks of 5 Nov thru 26.
The list of candidates and their bios also appears in the online ballot accessed via link below. 

Current members are asked to cast votes securely online NOW.

Vote Here
Election closes 11:59 pm EST 31 December 2018



New and Forthcoming Books of the Week

Secrecy in US National Security - Why a Paradigm Shift Is NeededSecrecy in U.S. National Security: Why a Paradigm Shift Is Needed
by James B. Bruce, Sina M. Beaghley, W. George Jameson
(Rand Corp., Nov 2018)

Summarizes the authors' key findings and conclusions regarding the adequacy of the present system governing secrecy in U.S. national security information. Makes recommendations to improve the system that makes, safeguards, and discloses secrets. The authors examine the principal elements and processes of the secrecy paradigm. The way these elements and processes perform and interact with each other determines the paradigm's overall performance. A key conclusion is that efforts to appreciably improve the way secrets are classified, protected, and disclosed will not likely succeed without corresponding improvements in the structure, culture, rules, and technologies of the secrecy paradigm. The strong relationship between the processes and the elements of secrecy means that major shortfalls in one almost certainly ensure continued shortfalls in the other. To achieve meaningful improvements in secrecy reform, tinkering at the margins must yield to systemic changes. A much-improved system will afford significantly better protection to secrets that truly need it; reduce complexity, subjectivity, and overclassification by providing clear parameters for creating secrets; and more fully support government transparency goals. Table of Contents: Chapter One - The Secrecy Paradigm; Chapter Two - Evaluating the Secrecy Paradigm; Chapter Three - Paradigm Shift: Path to Secrecy Modernization; Appendix - Study Methodology.

The publication as a PDF is available for immediate download at no cost here. Print version may be purchased at same link.


Handbook of Analytic Tools & TechniquesHandbook of Analytic Tools & Techniques, 5th edition
by Randolph H. Pherson
(Pherson Associates, LLC / Globalytica, Nov 2018)

Just released. The tools of the trade for wise analysis and decisionmaking. This is the latest edition of one of the best-selling works for all Intelligence Analysts — corporate and USG. This 5th edition features 33 structured analytic techniques that help analysts overcome mindsets, improve their confidence levels in their analytic conclusions, harness creativity, reduce the chance of surprise, instill more rigor in their analysis, and build analytic cultures within their units and organizations. Globalytica, LLC and Pherson Associates, LLC use the Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques to train corporate and government intelligence analysts, managers, leaders, and policymakers worldwide. Provides a definition of each technique, advice on when to use it, a description of how it adds value to the analysis, and a step-by-step description of the specific method involved.

Book may be ordered here.


The Seven Million Dollar SpyThe Seven Million Dollar Spy: How One Determined Investigator, Seven Million Dollars - and a Death Threat by the Russian Mafia - Led to the Capture of the Most Dangerous Mole Ever Unmasked Inside U.S. Intelligence
by David Wise, author; Kevin Pariseau, narrator
(Audible Studios, Oct 2018)

AUDIO-ONLY. Reveals, for the first time, the inside story of the dramatic US counterintelligence operation that resulted in the capture of the most dangerous mole working for Russia inside US intelligence: the FBI's Bob Hanssen. Now, the former senior KGB spy, to whom the US paid seven million dollars for Moscow's file on that mole, is identified by both his real and code names. The audiobook also reveals how a death threat by the Russian Mafia against the former senior KGB spy over a spoiled caviar deal worth millions was the key to unmasking the mole inside US intelligence.Tells the story, and final success, of the determined FBI counterspy who spent six years pursuing the mole and approaching 27 potential KGB sources - despite pressure to stop from his superiors who said he was wasting both time and money with nothing to show for it. Until the 28th spy. Tenacity and following one's instincts broke the case. The CIA and KGB officers featured in the main book at AFIO's luncheon last Friday were the ones who played the role, described above, in smoking out the files needed to determine the identify of the US IC mole.

Start listening NOW. Audio file may be purchased and downloaded here.



Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Chinese Intelligence Officers Charged With Espionage Over U.S. Aviation Hacks.  Chinese intelligence officers and hackers working for them have been charged with commercial espionage that included trying to steal information on commercial jet engines, federal prosecutors said Tuesday.

The indictments named two officers working for the Nanjing-based foreign intelligence arm of China's Ministry of State Security and six other defendants who allegedly conspired from 2010 to 2015 to steal sensitive turbofan engine technology used in commercial aviation.

The hackers used spear phishing to deploy malware and other means to intrude into a French aerospace company that was developing the engines with a U.S. company, prosecutors said. The suspects also hacked into aerospace companies in Massachusetts, Oregon and Arizona that manufactured engine parts.  [Read more:  Melley/AP/31October2018]

South Africa to Probe Mysterious Death of Former Rwandan Spy Chief.  South Africa is preparing to launch an official inquest into the mysterious death of the former director of Rwanda's external intelligence agency, who was found dead in a luxury South African hotel four years ago. The body of Patrick Karegeya, 53, was discovered on December 31, 2014, in a room at the Michelangelo Towers Hotel in Sandton, an affluent suburb of Johannesburg. Karegeya was a leading member of the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA), the armed wing of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), which was founded in 1987 in Uganda by Rwandan Tutsi refugees. In 1994, the RPA, led by Paul Kagame, took control of Rwanda, thus putting an end to the genocide of up to a million Tutsis and moderate Hutus. Soon afterwards Karegeya was named Director General of External Intelligence in the RPA, which was renamed to Rwandan Defense Forces.

In 2004 however, after falling out with Kagame, who had become President of Rwanda in 2000, Karegeya was arrested, stripped of his rank of colonel, and served 18 months in prison for "insubordination and desertion". He fled the country in 2007 and received political asylum in South Africa. The Rwandan government later claimed that Karegeya had been a double spy for South Africa.  [Read more:  Fitsanakis/IntelNews/2November2018]

Russia's Security Agency Hit by Terrorist Attack.  A bomb exploded Wednesday at a regional headquarters of Russia's Federal Security Service, killing the teenager who carried it into the building and injuring three security officers in a rare terrorist attack on the country's most powerful security agency.

Authorities said a 17-year-old male local resident carried the bomb into the lobby of the FSB building, located in the northern province of Arkhangelsk. The device exploded after he took it out of a bag, Russia's antiterrorism committee said in a statement.

Investigators opened a probe into terrorism and illegal possession of ammunition, conducting searches at the suspect's home and checking his family and social circle, authorities said.

According to Russian media reports, the suspect posted a warning on an online anarchist messaging board a few minutes before the blast.  [Read more:  Kantchev/WallStreetJournal/31October2018]

German Spy Chief Loses Out on Government Role After Firebrand Speech.  Germany's outgoing domestic intelligence chief has been denied a promised post in the interior ministry after he delivered a firebrand speech repeating claims video footage showing far-right protesters chasing down migrants in Chemnitz this summer was fake.

Hans-Georg Maassen had been promised a post as a special adviser in the interior ministry after he was removed as head of the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) in September.

Instead, he will be retired from all offices with immediate effect, the interior minister, Horst Seehofer, said in a statement on Monday afternoon.  [Read more:  LeBlond/TheGuardian/5November2018]

Denmark Foils 'Iranian Intelligence Agency' Attack.  Denmark on Tuesday accused Iranian intelligence of planning to carry out assassinations against Iranian Arab dissidents on Danish soil, in an alleged plot that is likely to ratchet up tensions between Iran and Europe.

Danish domestic intelligence chief Finn Borch Andersen said his PET agency suspected Iranian intelligence of "planning an attack on Danish soil" against three members of the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA).

A Norwegian citizen of Iranian origin was arrested on October 21 in Sweden in relation to the plot and extradited to Denmark, Swedish authorities said.  [Read more:  AP/Reuters/30October2018]

Macedonian Intelligence Services to be Separated from Crime and Politics.  After the completion of the reform of the communications monitoring system, through the establishment of the Operational and Technical Agency, effective since November 1, three models for reforming the security-intelligence system in accordance with the recommendations of Reinhard Priebe are currently part of a wider expert debate.

The Security and Counter-Intelligence Directorate and the Intelligence Agency to operate as before - the former within the MoI, and the latter as a separate body. The second model is the UBK to be outside the Ministry of Interior, and the third is the establishment of a new agency that would incorporate the UBK and the Intelligence Agency and would act outside the MoI.

According to the action plan, according to the Minister of Internal Affairs, Oliver Spasovski, at yesterday's Scientific-expert debate on the topic "Reforms of the Security and Counter-Intelligence Directorate" held at the conference hall of the Faculty of Security in Skopje, the Ministry of Interior should, by November 15, and propose one of the three models to the Government that will be additionally analyzed through an action plan for legislation and all by-laws.

The reforms in the security-intelligence sector are understandably part of the criteria that must be met as a condition for becoming a NATO member, in the direction of providing more successful collaboration and cooperation among the member states.  [Read more:  Vesnik/IBNA/6November2018]

Stephen Laycock Named FBI Assistant Director of the Directorate of Intelligence.  FBI Director Christopher Wray has named Stephen Laycock as assistant director for the Directorate of Intelligence at FBI Headquarters. Mr. Laycock most recently served as special agent in charge of the Washington Field Office's counterintelligence division.

Mr. Laycock entered on duty with the FBI in 1992 as a physical science technician in the Firearms and Toolmarks Unit at the FBI Laboratory and was certified as a forensic scientist. In 1995, Mr. Laycock began his career as a special agent and was first assigned to the San Francisco Field Office, Oakland Resident Agency, where he worked counterintelligence matters.

In 2000, Mr. Laycock was selected to serve as the FBI liaison to three Department of Energy national laboratories in the San Francisco area: Lawrence Livermore, Sandia, and Lawrence Berkeley. Mr. Laycock also served on the San Francisco SWAT team and Evidence Response Team.  [Read more:  FBI/5November2018]

Venezuela Names New Spy Chief After Uproar Over Politician's Death.  Venezuela has named a new chief of its state intelligence agency, according to the Official Gazette circulating on Wednesday, following the death of a politician in custody that was officially ruled a suicide but critics called a murder.

Army General Manuel Cristopher takes over the agency, known as Sebin, just weeks after the government announced that municipal legislator Fernando Alban had committed suicide by jumping from the 10th floor of the agency's headquarters in Caracas.

Opposition leaders said the government provided inconsistent accounts of the incident, and say Alban had been tortured and later killed by security forces.

The incident drew global condemnation, and the White House accused President Nicolas Maduro's government of involvement in Alban's death.  [Read more:  Reuters/31October2018]

Libya's Tripoli Government Replaces Intelligence Chief.  Libya's UN-backed unity government on Thursday appointed Abdullah Masoud al-Darsi as intelligence chief, replacing Abdul Qader al-Tuhami, according to a statement released late Wednesday by Fayez al-Sarraj, head of the government's Presidential Council.

Following his appointment, al-Darsi told Libya's private Al-Nabaa television channel that he would "take action" to unify the national intelligence apparatus.

"Our intelligence services safeguard the country's security and should be kept out of political disputes," he told the broadcaster.  [Read more:  Abdullah/Anadolu/1November2018]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

The CIA's Communications Suffered a Catastrophic Compromise. It Started in Iran. In 2013, hundreds of CIA officers - many working nonstop for weeks - scrambled to contain a disaster of global proportions: a compromise of the agency's internet-based covert communications system used to interact with its informants in dark corners around the world. Teams of CIA experts worked feverishly to take down and reconfigure the websites secretly used for these communications; others managed operations to quickly spirit assets to safety and oversaw other forms of triage.

"When this was going on, it was all that mattered," said one former intelligence community official. The situation was "catastrophic," said another former senior intelligence official.

From around 2009 to 2013, the U.S. intelligence community experienced crippling intelligence failures related to the secret internet-based communications system, a key means for remote messaging between CIA officers and their sources on the ground worldwide. The previously unreported global problem originated in Iran and spiderwebbed to other countries, and was left unrepaired - despite warnings about what was happening - until more than two dozen sources died in China in 2011 and 2012 as a result, according to 11 former intelligence and national security officials.  [Read more:  YahooNews/2November2018]

Riddle Resolved:  Who Dimed Out American Traitor and Super-Spy, Robert Hanssen?  For over two decades, students of the spy wars between Russia and America have pondered one of the great remaining mysteries of the Cold War: Who finally dimed out  Robert Hanssen, the FBI turncoat said to be the most destructive traitor in the annals of U.S. intelligence?

Now we know, according to an posthumously published book by the late David Wise, the authoritative espionage writer who died from pancreatic cancer last month. The informant, Wise writes, was Alexandr Shcherbakov, a down-on-his-luck former KGB officer who delivered the Kremlin's dossier on Hanssen to an FBI counterspy who had pursued the case for years. 

It was a handsome payday for Shcherbakov, now resettled under protection in this country: Wise's book, released only in audio form in mid-October, calls him The Seven Million Dollar Spy. With Wise dead, no advance copies available and no hardcover in the stores, the normally best-selling author's book has escaped attention until now. [Read more:  Stein/Newsweek/1November2018]

Ex-Spies Peek Behind Covert Curtain at Santa Fe Conference.  If you put a hundred regular people in a room with a handful of real-life American spies, what kinds of questions would they ask?

Do people inside the Central Intelligence Agency discuss the morality of torture?

Do you think the migrant caravan was covertly influenced by a different country?

Where did Pakistan acquire materials for nuclear weapons?

These inquiries and more pelted the panelists and host of a Saturday conference, Spies, Lies & Nukes: Inside International Espionage at La Fonda on the Plaza, where former CIA operatives spoke about their careers and their thoughts on government affairs.  [Read more:  Edge/SantaFeNewMexican/3November2018]

How This Little-Known Cell Helped Kill Osama Bin Laden.  Do you know how many doors were there in the compound where al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was hiding in Abbottabad, Pakistan? How about the most likely weather forecast in early May? And there's a military academy nearby, do they have tanks? If so, how many?

Those are some of the decidedly unsexy but operationally critical questions that are generally left out of the Hollywood version of the most famous military operation in recent history. Luckily, before the real life mission to kill bin Laden on May 1, 2011 they were answered by a little-known group of intelligence officers and analysts called the "joint Abbottabad coordination cell."

The cell, according to Defense Intelligence Agency historian Greg Elder, was formed from the DIA, CIA and other intelligence agencies to "put all the information together on Abbottabad" so that when SEAL Team 6 snuck into the Pakistani city that night, they would have as good idea as possible what they were getting themselves into.  [Read more:  Ferran/RCL/2November2018]

The Soviet Side of the 1983 War Scare.  Beginning in 1981, the KGB's "main objective" became "not to miss the military preparations of the enemy, its preparations for a nuclear strike, and not to miss the real risk of the outbreak of war," according to the text of a previously secret speech by then-KGB Chairman Yuri Andropov  found in the Ukrainian KGB archives and published today by the National Security Archive.

The Andropov speech, Politburo-level warnings about the war risks from NATO exercises in the fall of 1983, and other previously secret Soviet documents and declassified U.S. sources included in today's posting, confirm that ranking members of Soviet intelligence, military, and the Politburo, to varying degrees, were fearful of a Western first strike in 1983 under the cover of the NATO exercises Autumn Forge 83 and Able Archer 83.

Also published today is a previously confidential February 1984 Soviet General Staff Journal Voennaya mysl' [Military Thought] article analyzing NATO military exercises including Autumn Forge 83 and Able Archer 83.  The article opens with a warning from Soviet Politburo member and Minister of Defense Dmitry Ustinov just after the conclusion of Able Archer 83 in November 1983. Ustinov warned that NATO's military exercises "are becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish from a real deployment of armed forces for aggression."  The article goes on to state that, due to the large scale and realistic nature of NATO's military exercises in 1983, "it was difficult to catch the difference between working out training questions and actual preparation of large-scale aggression."  [Read more:  HNN/5November2018]


Section III - COMMENTARY

House Intel: Post-Midterms, How Much Can the Committee Change?  On the evening of March 13, 2018, the Democrats on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence emerged, grim-faced, from the committee's secure spaces in the basement of the U.S. Capitol for what was expected to be a uniquely somber press gaggle.

Seven of them spoke about the damage they believed the Republican majority had done to the reputation of the committee, the Congress and the country in prematurely shutting down the Russia investigation. It had barreled on, at times spectacularly, for more than a year.

Before a lone microphone stand and a group of reporters whose faces had become familiar, a visibly beleaguered Rep. Adam Schiff, California Democrat and the committee's ranking member, called the majority's decision a "terrible disservice to the country and the American people."  [Read more:  Gazis/CBSNews/6November2018]

What Trump Should be Asking of the CIA on Khashoggi.  The attempted pipe-bomb attacks on a number of prominent Americans, followed by the horrific killings in Pittsburgh, have dominated the recent news. And for good reason: These homegrown attacks on Americans are devastating, and hark back to the darkest times in our nation's history.

But even amid the cacophony of tragedy we face, we cannot afford to move past the murder of Post contributing columnist, U.S. resident and Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi. And the United States needs to respond - beyond simply enforcing a travel ban on those Saudis identified by their own government as having been involved.

A robust process for formulating that response would include considerable work by the Central Intelligence Agency.

In the early days of his first term, President George W. Bush told me that the CIA had two roles in serving him. The first, obvious to most people, was to uncover clandestine information the president needed to know to keep the nation secure. [Read more:  Morell/WashingtonPost/5November2018]


Section IV - Obituaries

Obituaries

Jack Forrester, CIA S&T

John F. Forrester, 94, a CIA Officer who worked on the U-2 project, died 25 October 2018.
Born in Scranton, PA, Jack served in WWII, serving in the USAF at age 19. After the war, he returned home to Scranton and graduated from the University of Scranton with a degree in journalism. He then started a career with the CIA. Early in his Agency career, he worked on the U-2 Project, training pilots on how to send coded messages in the event of capture.
He retired from CIA in 1978.
He is survived by his wife of 64 years, Barbara Forrester, and two sons, and other family.

Mary Hasty, Military Counterintelligence Officer

Mary Canciglia Hasty, Capt USN(Ret), 61, died 8 June 2018 of breast cancer.
Mary - a true patriot - enlisted in the US Army upon graduation from high school, and served as a signals intelligence intercept operator in Communist-surrounded Berlin, Germany during the height of the Cold War. Upon return to the US she obtained her BA from George Mason University, and later obtained an MSSI degree from the Defense Intelligence College. She served several years as an Army Reserve counterintelligence agent before receiving a direct commission in the US Navy Reserve as an intelligence officer. She mobilized to active duty several times in support of Operations ENDURING FREEDOM and IRAQI FREEDOM, and was the recipient of several US military and civilian decorations. Mary spent 30 years in the US intelligence community as a civilian counterintelligence and counterterrorism officer, serving in the Army, Navy, DIA, NCIS, and ODNI. She also worked with the CIA, FBI, and other government organizations.
Mary was a bright light whose energy, enthusiasm, and humor inspired those with whom she came into contact.
She is survived by her spouse of 25 years, Col. Boyette Stephen Hasty, USMC (Ret.), and other family.

Ed O'Reilly, CIA Finance Officer

Edward Thomas O'Reilly, a CIA Finance Officer, died 26 October 2018.
Ed worked as a Finance Officer for the CIA for his entire professional career, with assignments in Germany, Florida, Vietnam, and Australia among others, and was awarded a Certificate of Distinction for his service.
He is survived by his wife, Darla, and other family.

Scott Johnson, DIA and Treasury Official
Scott H. Johnson, 60, a DIA and Treasury Official, died 1 November 2018 in Bethesda, MD.
Scott was a graduate of Georgetown University's ROTC program and served in the US Army for four years, retiring as a Captain. He also obtained his Master's degree in Security Studies from Georgetown's School of Foreign Service.
Scott pursued a career in counterterrorism at DIA, followed by many years serving as a Senior Executive with the Financial Management Service at the US Department of Treasury. He retired from government service in 2012.
Scott had a lifelong passion for scouting and achieved the rank of Eagle Scout at age 13. He was active with scouting at Norwood School and coached recreational baseball for several Norwood teams.
Scott is survived by his parents, Mike and Darlene Johnson, of Prescott AZ, and other family.


AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

Wednesday, 14 November 2018, 11:30 AM - Albuquerque, NM - AFIO New Mexico Chapter hosts Robert Hull on "The Anthrax Letters."

SPEAKER: Mr. Robert Hull, Los Alamos Technical Associates Inc., will present an updated talk given several years ago, on the Anthrax Letters, including his interview with Bruce Ivins before he was ultimately determined to be the culprit and committed suicide. A question period will follow the presentation.

Location of event: "The Egg & I" restaurant on Menaul just east of Louisiana, next door to Chili's, 6909 Menaul Boulevard Northeast, Albuquerque, NM 87110, (505) 888-3447
Fee to attend: Free. 11 am (Arrive, Order Lunch - available at separate cost), 11:30 am (Call To Order), 1 pm (Adjourn)

Our meetings are normally open to present and former members of Federal, Military (uniformed and civilian), State and Local Agencies and selective others who support the Intelligence Community.

If you desire further information, please contact one of the following: Sam Shaw - Phone: 505-379-3963 e-mail: President@afionm.org; Tom Dyble - Phone: 505-299-3242 e-mail: Vice-President@afionm.org.

Thursday, 15 November 2018, 11:30 AM - Colorado Springs, CO - AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter hosts Nancy Charles-Parker, discussing "WHAT'S A NICE PERSON LIKE YOU DOING IN A PLACE LIKE THIS?"

The experiences our speaker will share in November emanate from her work in U.S. embassies in 13 countries in South Africa, Central Asia, South and Central America, Europe, the Arabian Gulf and East Asia. Our speaker has asked that we invite students who may want to enter an international career. Please invite those in your circles who may be interested to attend.

Nancy Charles-Parker has an MA from Columbia University, where she was an administrator prior to moving to Spain to teach. Born into a long line of pacifist conscientious objectors, Nancy ironically found her first government job with the U.S. Air Force.  After course work at Yale, she joined an agency known by its initials and was an operations officer and economic reporter in U.S. embassies in Asia, Latin America, and Europe for 13 years. Although she entered with working knowledge of Spanish and French, she found herself using Mandarin Chinese after training in Taiwan. Her responsibilities were to recruit and debrief people willing to share sensitive information in a discrete way with the U.S. government.  In addition to being posted on every continent except Australia and Antarctica, she traveled to an additional 20 countries as part of her energy and infrastructure portfolios and while heading a worldwide collection program out of Washington DC. 

Nancy finished her 33 year government career with the Foreign Commercial Service by promoting U.S. exports in the Arabian Gulf.  She was the first woman to serve as Commercial Counselor in the UAE and in Saudi Arabia, the latter during a time of Al Queda terrorism against the U.S.  Largest success of her Gulf commercial team was a $3 billion sale of U.S. airplane engines to Emirates Airlines. This large sale and the Saudi successes helped her gain promotion into the Sr. Foreign Service, an SES equivalent.  Her most interesting "war stories" stem from Saudi Arabia, where businessmen and government officials generally treated her like an "honorary man."

Since leaving government service, Nancy travels 3 months a year, visiting faith-based development and micro-finance projects that she supports in Vietnam, Guatemala, Nepal, the former Soviet Union, and the Middle East.  She especially enjoys speaking with people under 35 about careers abroad and in the Foreign Service.

Please contact Tom VanWormer at steve13507@gmail.com for more information.

Saturday, 17 November 2018, 2 p.m. - Kennebunk, ME - AFIO Maine Chapter hears from David Shedd, former Acting Dir, DIA, on "Intelligence Challenges in a Volatile World"

David Shedd, former acting Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and former CIA Officer, discusses "Intelligence Challenges in a Volatile World." Details to follow.

The AFIO meeting is open to the public, and begins at 2 p.m. at the Program Center of the Brick Store Museum, 4 Dane St., Kennebunk. A question period will follow the presentation.

Saturday, 24 November 2018 11:30 a.m. - Melbourne, FL - AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter hosts JJ Justice of "Rolling Thunder," discussing role of that influential Veteran-supporting organization

The AFIO Florida Satellite chapter presents a double-barreled meeting. Guest Speaker James (JJ) Justice, president of Rolling Thunder Florida Chapter One, will discuss the role of his organization in educating the public about the hidden reality that many American Prisoners of War were left behind after all previous wars, to correct the past, and to protect future Veterans from being left behind should they become POWs or Missing In Action. Rolling Thunder is also committed to helping American Veterans and their families from all wars.

A second highlight of this meeting will be the Grand Airline Ticket Raffle of two round trip tickets on American Airlines from Orlando Melbourne International Airport to any domestic destination in the contiguous United States. Raffle tickets will be available only at the 24 November meeting. Sure...like the rest of us, you missed out winning last week's Mega Millions and Powerball lotteries. Well, opportunity is knocking. Here's your chance to win one! Attend this meeting and participate in a raffle with far better odds.

Location: Suntree Country Club, One Country Club Dr, Melbourne, FL 32940
Registration: deadline to register is 15 November. Paid, advance registration is required for attendance. For further information, or to register, contact Treasurer Rhonda Rhoads, at afiofsc@afio.com, or by phone at 321-626-4465. Mail her at Rhonda Rhoads, PO Box 410158, Melbourne, FL 32941.

Monday, 3 December 2018, 5:30 - 8 pm - New York, NY - AFIO NY Metro Chapter hosts David Hunt, CIA Operations Officer on "From Russia with Love: Assassinations from the 16th to 21st Century."

David Hunt, a CIA 32 Years of Distinguished Service with field assignments in Italy, Vietnam, Somalia, Norway, France and New York City, Station Chief in Somalia and New York.  Expertise on old Soviet Union.  Currently Chairman of Charles Pratt and Company in New York.

TOPIC:  From Russia with Love.  Assassinations are a continuum from the 16th century.  David will provide depth and continuity to the 4 March 2018 assassination attempt on Sergei Skripal in England.
LOCATION:  Society of Illustrators building:  128 East 63rd Street Between Lexington Ave and Park Ave in Manhattan.
TIME:  Meeting starts 6:00 PM.  Registration starts 5:30 PM
COST:  $50/person.  Cash or check payable at the door only.
REGISTRATION:  Strongly recommended, not required.  Phone Jerry Goodwin 1-646-717-3776 or Email  afiometro@gmail.com

7 December 2018 (Friday), 6pm - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO San Francisco Chapter hosts Dr. William H. Overholt on "China's Crisis of Success."

Speaker: Dr. William H. Overholt, President of Fung Global Institute; Senior Research Fellow at John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and Principal of AsiaStrat, LLC., discusses "China's Crisis of Success."
Location: San Francisco War Memorial Building, 405 Van Ness Avenue, Lecture Hall 210, San Francisco, CA.
RSVP: Eventbrite Registration is here.

Please note: all proceeds from this meeting will be donated to the Veteran's Success Center (VSC), a non-profit dedicated to finding employment for veterans.

Contact Mariko Kawaguchi, Board Secretary at afiosf@aol.com with any questions.

Wednesday, 12 December 2018, 6:30 pm - Las Vegas, NV - Join the Las Vegas Roger McCarthy Chapter for this Holiday Party

It is that time again and the holidays are upon us. We are pleased to announce this year's holiday party. Please join the chapter for an evening of good food, camaraderie, and a very special guest speaker.
Guests are welcome and encouraged. If you have family members or friends who may be interested in learning more about AFIO, invite them to join you for this special evening with the chapter. This is an opportunity to introduce our vibrant chapter to potential new members.
Please note that an RSVP is requested by Wednesday, 5 December 2018, to ensure there is plenty of traditional holiday food and fixings on the buffet.
Happy Holidays to everyone.

Fee: $30 per person. Guests are welcome.
Location: Los Prados Country Club, 5150 Los Prados Cir, Las Vegas, NV 89130.
RSVP by Wednesday, 5 December 2018 to lasvegasafio@gmail.com or by phone/message at 702-239-1370.


Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others

Tuesday, 6 November 2018 3 - 4 pm - Washington, DC - "The Post-Caliphate Islamic State: Reflections on Counterterrorism During the First Year of the Trump Administration" by Christopher Costa, Exec Dir International Spy Museum speaking at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security

Christopher P. Costa, Colonel, US Army (Retired), Executive Director, The International Spy Museum, addresses the Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security on "The Post-Caliphate Islamic State: Reflections on Counterterrorism During the First Year of the Trump Administration."

Colonel Costa will set the scene for how the terrorist threat has manifested over the past year or more, the demise of the physical caliphate - the complexities of the fight in the milieu that is Syria - and what the threat might look like in the future. He will consider the terrorist threat from the Maghreb to the Philippines and will discuss what a successful counterterrorism strategy would look like, what are the greatest concerns going forward, such as foreign terrorist fighters, the threat and vulnerabilities to civil aviation and mass transit.

Where: Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security, 1620 L St NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC 20036
Direct questions to Frank Fletcher, Director of Lectures & Seminars by email to, events@dmgs.org. Please note that you must RSVP to attend this event.
Daniel Morgan Graduate School Reserves The Right To Refuse Entry
Appropriate Attire Is Business or Business Casual
RSVP here.

6 November 2018, 5 - 8 pm - Reston, VA - NMIF hosts James Clapper discussing his book "Facts and Fears."

The National Military Intelligence Foundation hosts the Hon. James R. Clapper discussing his book "Facts and Fears: Hard Truths from a Life in Intelligence." He will also be signing copies of the book.
Cost: $30/pp; $15/student. Fee includes light hors d'oeuvres.
Location: 11091 Sunset Hills Rd, Ste 200, Reston, VA 20190. Directions are here.
Register here.

Wednesday, 14 November 2018, noon - Alexandria, VA - Remembrance Luncheon for Bill Bailey, past president of Rotary Club of Annandale.

The Rotary Club of Annandale Virginia (BXRC for Bailey's Crossroads) is hosting a remembrance luncheon for their former president, William Benteen Bailey, a former lawyer and naval officer. Bailey also served in the 1990s as a legal advisor for AFIO.
His widow, Alice, and possibly his children Alicia and Bruce, will be in attendance. Bill died of a stroke on 25 Sep 2018 at his home in Annandale, VA.

Location: Clyde's at Mark Center www.clydes.com 1700 N Beauregard St, Alexandria, VA 22311. Clyde's will present a single check that be divided among attendees. RSVP needed to Tina at bxrrotary@verizon.net or bxrcnewsletter@yahoo.com.

16 November 2018, 8am - 5pm - Washington, DC - "CARVERCON2018: Target Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment" hosted by Security Management International

This one-day event will cover a range of topics related to protecting critical infrastructure and key resources, utilizing the world-famous CARVER Target Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment Methodology as a foundation for discussion. The latest innovations in assessment technology, recent case studies, and best practices for identifying and minimizing security threats will all be addressed. Featured speakers include retired CIA officer and the "Godfather of CARVER," Leo Labaj, Dr. Jenni Hesterman, Major General Edward Leacock, Chuck Brooks, Luke Bencie, and others. An opportunity to learn from and network with security professionals from public and private sectors who specialize in the CARVER methodology and are responsible for protecting their organization's valuable assets from would-be aggressors.

CARVER is a nationally recognized target analysis and vulnerability assessment methodology used extensively by the military, intelligence and law enforcement community. While numerous other vulnerability assessments have emerged and gone by the wayside, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security officially recognized CARVER as the preferred methodology for securing critical infrastructure. The CARVER methodology is both a defensive and offensive tool: it can assess and analyze risk based on a wide variety of threats and adversaries, as well analyze potential enemy targets to ensure maximum impact.

CARVER allows complex data to be synthesized into usable information by integrating the analysis and examination of assets, threats, vulnerabilities, and countermeasures surrounding a specific facility. Its applications are numerous, from physical security and counter-intelligence, to cyber security. It plays an essential role in the protection of critical infrastructure and safety by determining the likelihood of an adversary successfully exploiting a system or an asset's vulnerabilities. It is a time-tested vulnerability assessment methodology that balances efficiency with reliability. What separates the CARVER method from other methodologies is the fact that it offers both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of its findings. This is particularly useful to the security practitioner to help clarify thinking, assist with decision-making, and to provide reasoning for budgets and resource allocations.

Speakers: Luke Bencie, Leo Labaj, Jerry Savnik, Chuck Brooks, Dr. Jenni Hesterman, Maj Gen Edward Leacock USA, and James Maxwell.

Location: The event will be at the Washington Marriott Metro Center with a continental breakfast, lunch, and light fare in the afternoon.

Event includes: Book Launch & Signing of Leo Labaj's and Luke Bencie's new book: The CARVER Target Analysis and Vulnerability Assessment Methodology: A Practical Guide for Evaluating Security Vulnerabilities.

Full details and registration here.

Saturday, 17 November 2018, 5 - 10 pm - McLean, VA - 13th Annual GEOGala by USGIF

The USGIF [US Geospatial-Intelligence Foundation) is proud to bring together more than 500 leaders from across the Defense, Intelligence, and Homeland Security Communities with USGIF Organizational Members, Individual Members, Foundation partners and their guests.

The USGIF black-tie GEOGala celebrates the dedication and support of the GEOINT Community to the tradecraft and our national security mission.

Location: Hilton McLean Tysons Corner, 7920 Jones Branch Dr., McLean, VA 22102.
Attire: Black Tie/Formal Dress

If you plan to register more than 4 people, you will need to download and submit the paper application.

Registration: Individual Seats are $250* - USGIF Individual Member; $295 - Non-member
Young Professional Seats are $225* - USGIF Individual Member; $270 - Non-member

Registration ends at noon on 17 Nov 2018.
Register here.

19 November 2018, 4:45 - 9 pm - Washington, DC - DMGS hosts panel on "USA-Georgia-Azerbaijan: Global and Regional Perspectives of Trilateral Cooperation.

Strategic Link for Energy and Trade between Europe and Asia, panel featuring David Bakradze, Dr. Yuval Weber, Edward Lemon, Elin Suleymanov, Georgia, Global and Regional Perspectives of Trilateral Cooperation, Mamuka Tsereteli, Orkhan Zeynalov, Yuval Weber.

The USA – Georgia – Azerbaijan: Global and Regional Perspectives of Trilateral Cooperation

4 - 4:30 pm – Registration of guests; 4:45 - 5 pm – Welcome speech of DMGS President Mr. Christopher Croft; 5 - 6:10 pm. Panel 1: South Caucasus at the Crossroads: Challenges to Regional Stability- Speaker: H.E Mr. Elin Suleymanov, the Ambassador of the Republic of Azerbaijan to the US; H.E Mr. David Bakradze, the Ambassador of the Republic of Georgia to the US; Moderator: Dr. Yuval Weber (Daniel Morgan Graduate School). 6:10 - 6: 25 pm – Q&A Session; 6:30 - 7:45 pm. Panel 2: Azerbaijan – Georgia: A Strategic Link for Energy and Trade between Europe and Asia
Speaker: Mr. Orkhan Zeynalov, Counselor of the Embassy of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the US; Mr. Mamuka Tsereteli, Senior Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center, based in Washington DC. Moderator: Dr. Edward Lemon (Daniel Morgan Graduate School)
7:45 - 8 pm – Q&A Session; 8 pm - Reception

RSVP is required and guests must check in prior to entering the event. Guests may be asked to present government issued identification.
Venue: Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security, 1620 L St NW, Washington, DC 20036

Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security reserves the right to refuse entry.

Proper attire is required: Business

Please note that registration commences at 4 pm
Cost: Free
More information and to register do so here.

Wednesday, 28 November 2018, 6 - 10:30 pm - Washington, DC - International Spy Museum's Annual "William H. Webster Distinguished Service Award Dinner" honoring Adm McRaven

For your calendar. A special evening to illuminate the critical role of individuals and organizations serving the Intelligence Community, and to raise funds in support of the International Spy Museum.

The William H. Webster Distinguished Service Award Dinner will take place at The Ritz Carlton Hotel. More than 600 attendees are anticipated and will recognize the men and women who have served in the field of National Security with integrity and distinction. This annual tribute dinner is given by the International Spy Museum to an individual who has embodied the values of Judge William H. Webster. This year's honoree is a patriot for whom love of country has been his guiding principle: Admiral William H. McRaven, former US Special Operations Commander, former Joint Special Operations Commander, and Chancellor of The University of Texas System.
Schedule: 6 pm - VIP Reception; 6:30 pm - Cocktail Reception; 7:30 - 9 pm - Dinner & Awards; 9 - 10:30 pm - Dessert Reception.
Location: The Ritz-Carlton Hotel, 1150 22nd St NW, Washington, DC 20037. **Please note: this event is closed to Media**
Tickets Available Now: Prices range from $100,000 to a single seat for $495. Funds raised at this tribute dinner will support artifact preservation, educational programming, research, exhibits, and accessibility programs for underserved communities at the International Spy Museum. To purchase tickets now, do so here. To learn more about this annual dinner, it is available here.


Gift Suggestions:

AFIO's Guide to the Study of IntelligenceAFIO's 788-page Guide to the Study of Intelligence. Peter C. Oleson, Editor, also makes a good gift. View authors and table of contents here.

Perfect for professors, students, those considering careers in intelligence, and current/former officers seeking to see what changes are taking place across a wide spectrum of intelligence disciplines.

AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence helps instructors teach about the large variety of subjects that make up the field of intelligence. This includes secondary school teachers of American History, Civics, or current events and undergraduate and graduate professors of History, Political Science, International Relations, Security Studies, and related topics, especially those with no or limited professional experience in the field. Even those who are former practitioners are likely to have only a limited knowledge of the very broad field of intelligence, as most spend their careers in one or two agencies at most and may have focused only on collection or analysis of intelligence or support to those activities.

For a printed, bound copy, it is $95 which includes Fedex shipping to a CONUS (US-based) address.
To order for shipment to a US-based CONUS address, use this online form,

To order multiple copies or for purchases going to AK, HI, other US territories, or other countries call our office at 703-790-0320 or send email to afio@afio.com to hear of shipment fees.

Order the Guide from the AFIO's store at this link.

...ORDER HERE.

The Guide is also available directly from Amazon at this link.

MousepadAFIO's 2017 Intelligence Community Mousepads are a great looking addition to your desk...or as a gift for others.
Made in USA. Click image for larger view.

These 2017 mousepads have full color seals of all 18 members of the US Intelligence Community on this 8" round, slick surface, nonskid, rubber-backed mouse pad with a darker navy background, brighter, updated seals. Also used, by some, as swanky coasters. Price still only $20.00 for 2 pads [includes shipping to US address. Foreign shipments - we will contact you with quote.] Order MOUSEPADS here.

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WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor's or author's listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at www.afio.com for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications and much more!

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