AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #30-22 – 26 July 2022
Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS
Section II - IC PODCASTS, COMMENTARY, BLOG UPDATES
Section III - BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION BY MEMBERS
Section IV - Books, Research Requests, Jobs, Obituaries
Books — Newly Released, Overlooked, Forthcoming
Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others
For additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events
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The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. Notices in the WINs about non-AFIO events do not constitute endorsement or recommendation by AFIO.
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Released exclusively to members last week...
OSINT Information, Publicly Available Information, and Their Importance to Intelligence Operations
Eliot A. Jardines Ed.D.,
Interview of Wednesday, 29 June 2022 between Eliot A. Jardines Ed.D., Former Assistant Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Open Source (ADDNI/OS) and AFIO President James Hughes, a former senior CIA Operations Officer.
Access the Jardines interview here or click above image
Other Videos in the "AFIO Now" Series
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member-only interviews in the AFIO Now series.
Newest podcast: Ric Prado, Former Chief CIA Counterterrorism Center (CTC), Senior CIA Senior CIA Operations and Paramilitary Officer, on his career From the Shadow Wars Fought Since the Vietnam Era... to the Bin Laden Task Force, as presented in his new book "Black Ops."
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Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS
At 75, the CIA Is Back Where It Started – Countering the Kremlin - NPR, 26 July 2022
At its creation in July 1947, the CIA delivered briefings to President Harry Truman that would still sound current in today's news feeds.
CIA Director: Putin 'Too Healthy' - Politco, 20 July 2022
Putin is "entirely too healthy," CIA Director William Burns said Wednesday, throwing cold water on constant rumors that the Russian president is suffering from illness as he pursues his war on Ukraine.
Russia to Drop Out of International Space Station after 2024 - APNews, 26 July 2022
Russia will pull out of the International Space Station after 2024 and focus on building its own orbiting outpost, the country's new space chief said Tuesday amid high tensions between Moscow and the West over the fighting in Ukraine.
As Russia Runs Low on Drones, Iran Plans to Step In, U.S. Officials Say - NYTimes, 25 July 2022
Russia is seeking hundreds of armed and unarmed surveillance drones from Iran to use in the war in Ukraine reflects Moscow's need to both fill a critical battlefield gap and find a long-term supplier of a crucial combat technology, U.S. intelligence, military and independent analysts say. ... U.S. officials said Iran was preparing to provide as many as 300 remotely piloted aircraft and would start training Russian troops on how to use them as early as this month.
FBI Investigation Determined Chinese-Made Huawei Equipment Could Disrupt US Nuclear Arsenal Communications - CNN, 25 July 2022
On paper, it looked like a fantastic deal. In 2017, the Chinese government was offering to spend $100 million to build an ornate Chinese garden at the National Arboretum in Washington DC. Complete with temples, pavilions and a 70-foot white pagoda, the project thrilled local officials, who hoped it would attract thousands of tourists every year.
ALSO See: "FBI SHOCKED to Find Out China's Offer to Build $100M 'Garden' in DC Just MIGHT Be for Espionage Purposes" - The Blaze, 26 July 2022
The Road to Stalemate - Reuters Graphics Presentation, July 2022
Nearly five months into what Russia had planned as a swift invasion, Ukraine has preserved its sovereignty and pushed back Russian forces in some areas. Since the Russian capture of eastern Luhansk province in early July, the conflict has evolved into a grinding contest of long-range artillery bombardments and missile strikes on cities.
Blow for Putin as China Abandons Investment in Russia - Telegraph, 25 July 2022
Russia received no money through China's Belt and Road initiative in first half of 2022. China has not funded any new infrastructure projects in Russia for months as Beijing focuses its attention on preventing a financial crisis at home.
Financing and investment through the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) fell to $28.4bn (£23.6bn) over the first half of 2022, down from $29.4bn during the same period last year, according to a study by the Green Finance & Development Center at Shanghai's Fudan University.
No money went to new projects in Russia, Sri Lanka or Egypt, all of which had previously been key beneficiaries of Chinese spending. The lack of engagement with Russia suggests Chinese businesses may be afraid of falling victim to secondary sanctions introduced against Moscow over the invasion of Ukraine, and comes despite the pair insisting that their friendship had "no limits" shortly before the war began.
Israeli Company Candiru Allegedly behind Cyberattacks against Journalists - JPost, 25 July 2022
Hackers took advantage of an undetectable vulnerability in Google Chrome. A zero-day vulnerability in Google's Chrome web browser was discovered on July 1 when it was used to target journalists in the Middle East, according to cybersecurity company Avast. The majority of the attacks took place in Lebanon.
"Based on the malware and TTPs used to carry out the attack, we can confidently attribute it to a secretive spyware vendor of many names, most commonly known as Candiru," Avast wrote.
Also known as SAITO Tech, Candiru is an Israeli technology company that engages in cyberespionage, often for governmental clients.
Section II - IC PODCASTS, COMMENTARY, BLOG UPDATES
Psychiatrist Kenneth Dekleva on Profiling World Leaders — interviews by Former Acting D/CIA Mike Morell
July 20 | Psychiatrist Kenneth Dekleva on Profiling World Leaders - Originally released 9 March and featured in WIN #11-22 15 Mar 2022.
In this "Best of" episode while Mike takes a well-deserved summer break, Michael Morell speaks with Kenneth Dekleva, a psychiatrist, former U.S. Department of State Regional Medical Officer, and Senior Fellow at the George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, about how experts compile psychological profiles of world leaders. Morell and Dekleva discuss the formative experiences and core characteristics of Russian president Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, and Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamanei. They also discuss the character of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, as well as how other countries might approach similar profiles of U.S. leaders. This episode was previously released in March 2022 and featured in AFIO's WIN #11-22 on 15 March 2022..
More about Intelligence Matters by Michael Morell here. Podcasts also available here.
Dusty Old Industrial Policy Gets Dusted Off*... - Stewart Baker, Colleagues, Guests at Steptoe Cyberblog
Cyberblog by Steptoe & Johnson LLP — By Stewart Baker [Chairman, AFIO]
Episode 418: Dusty Old Industrial Policy Gets Dusted Off* released 25 July 2022
Some Prior Conversations:
Behind Zelenskyy's Security Shakeup... a few "SpyTalk" items by Jeff Stein and Colleagues on Substack...
July 24: "Behind Zelenskyy's Security Shakeup" - Olga Lautman
July 18: "How to Describe Russia's Ukraine Terror" - David Charney M.D.
July 16: "Ben Macintyre is Back with a Monumental War Tale" - Peter Eisner
July 14: "SpyTalk Behind the Lines: Vault-7 and More" - Jeff Stein and Jefferson Morley
July 13: "The Long Arm of China's Secret Police Reaches into the U.S." - Jeff Stein
Putin Taking Defensive Measures Back Home to Tighten His Grip on Nation - Latest Insights from Jack Devine of Arkin Group
The Arkin Group's July 21 "In Other News" letter to private clients by former CIA Deputy Director, Operations... Officer Jack Devine features...
Follow link here to read analyses and predictions given to their private clients on the topics from last week. There sometimes is a delay of seven days before the above topics will appear at this link.
Abe's Assassination Raises Concerns for U.S. Politicians — more from JJ Green/WTOP's "Inside the SCIF"
the SCIF by JJ Green, WTOP -
Issue #170, 21 July has details on...POTUS Positive for Covid; Ukraine Heartbreak; Mark Milley comments; Russian Troops and Nuke Plants; Secret Service Text Message Mystery; DHS Whistleblower; Assassination of Japan's former PM Abe - Impact on Risks Facing U.S. Politicians; NATO; EU Building €8m secure bunker in Brussels; FBI arrests Saudi for fake accounts and online threats; Update on arrest of Asim Ghafoor, former Khashoggi attorney; Khashoggi's widow disavows connection with late husband and Ghafoor; more.
In The Hunt podcast: The United Nations Has Released a Report on the Current Threat from ISIS and Al-Qaida.
J.J. Green speaks with the outgoing coordinator of the ISIS/al-Qaida/Taliban Monitoring Team, Edmund Fitton-Brown, who said both groups have suffered setbacks.
Section III - BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION BY MEMBERS
Is There Too Much Focus on Disinformation? - OODA Loop, 19 July 2022
Disinformation (as well as misinformation and propaganda) has been well socialized into the public conscious since the 2016 U.S. presidential election when Russia, as well as other states, capitalized on global connectivity of social media and other online platforms to disseminate stories, push false narratives, and otherwise sow discontent in target audiences. Since then, there has been much debate over disinformation and its offshoots like fake news that is produced and spread throughout the Internet. In the United States especially, the call to censor disinformation has been rampant, with pressure being applied to social media outlets like Facebook and Twitter to proactively identify and remove accounts conducting questionable activities. At least two bills in Congress have been drafted, both with the stated purpose of countering disinformation, though neither has progressed far in the legislative process. ...
Can the World Cope without Russian Oil and Gas? - Russian Gas Boss Says 'Our Product, Our Rules' - Russia Waging Gas War with Supply Cuts - Zelenskiy: Russia Using Gas Prices to Terrorise Europe - BBC, Reuters, Others, 26 July 2022
Since the invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have sanctioned Russian oil and gas, prompting warnings of retaliation from Moscow. How much Russian gas does Europe use? Russia supplied the EU with 40% of its natural gas last year. Germany, Europe's largest economy, was the largest importer in 2020, followed by Italy. The UK imported just 4% of its needs from Russia and the US doesn't import any gas from Russia.
Ukrainian Intelligence- Russia Is Preparing a "Fake Investigation" into the Mariupol Drama Theater They Bombed to Blame Ukraine - Lautman, 24 July 2022
Russia strategically bombed civilians hiding in the Mariupol drama theater and now want to blame Ukraine
Vladimir Putin Was Replaced by a BODY DOUBLE When He Flew to Iran to Meet Turkey's President Erdogan, Ukrainian Intelligence Claims - DailyMail, 23 July 2022
A Vladimir Putin body 'double' may have been used for his arrival at a summit in Tehran this week, according to the head of Ukrainian military intelligence. While the Russian leader looked awkward as he came down the steps of his presidential plane in Tehran, Ukrainian sources noted he moved unusually quickly and was more alert than in prior public appearances. The Russian premier looked animated when greeting the waiting party, before removing his jacket and clambering into a heavily armoured limousine. Intelligence supremo Major-General Kyrylo Budanov was suspicious in a live interview on Ukraine's 1+1 news channel. Ukrainian reports said Budanov suggested a Putin lookalike could have flown to Tehran to meet with the presidents of Iran and Turkey.
TAIWAN - Inside the Weapons Bootcamp Preparing for a Feared Chinese Invasion - Telegraph, 25 July 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompts Taiwanese citizens to prepare for a conflict many fear is on the horizon. Last Saturday morning, a Telegraph photographer and I donned protective plastic glasses to join a small crew of Taiwanese trainees in an airless warehouse at the Polar Light "close-quarters battle club", in order to observe how they were gearing up for a conflict that many fear is on the horizon.
Netflix's "The Gray Man": Ryan Gosling and Chris Evans Go Loud in Russos' Propulsive Action Flick – Salon, 22 July 2022
Exhilarating explosions, chases, shootouts, fireworks, falling planes ... and a plot too, if that's your thing. While "The Gray Man" showcases Ryan Gosling, Chris Evans, and Regé-Jean Page, this globe-hopping action thriller, directed by Anthony and Joe Russo, is more interested in pounding pulses and taking breaths than throbbing hearts. It is a big, noisy, explosive adrenaline rush — a live-action spin on that old "MAD" magazine comic, "Spy vs. Spy" — and about as deep.
VIDEOS, REPORTS, EXHIBITS, DOCUMENT RELEASES
VIDEO: CIA Director William Burns' Interview at The Aspen Security Forum - 23 July 2022
VIDEO: Chat on Cyber, Crypto, and Quantum with Anne Neuberger, NSC - Aspen Institute, 20 July 2022
VIDEO: Richard Moore, Chief of MI6 Interview - Aspen Institute Interview, 21 July 2022
VIDEO: House Intelligence Committee Open Hearing on Commercial Cyber Surveillance - Live on 27 July 2022
REPORT: Impacts to Cultural Heritage in Ukraine - Tearline, NGA, July 2022
When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, CHML was poised to begin real-time or near real-time monitoring. CHML uses two data sources to geolocate potential impacts to cultural heritage sites: 1) open source data, and 2) remote sensing data. Because these data sources are publicly accessible, CHML can quickly disseminate reports on potential impacts to stakeholders and the wider public. Using high-resolution commercial satellite imagery, potential impacts are then reviewed to determine if they can be confirmed. There is a time lag inherent in the confirmation process due to satellite periodicity, but this lag is a matter of hours or a few days, meaning CHML can typically report confirmed impacts within 72 hours of a kinetic event. By June 30, CHML identified over 450 potential impacts, and this report is the first thorough analysis of confirmed impacts, with the first tranche at 108 confirmed impacts.
REPORT: CRS - Hypersonic Weapons: Background and Issues for Congress - R45811, 20 Jul 2022
The United States has actively pursued the development of hypersonic weapons—maneuvering weapons that fly at speeds of at least Mach 5—as a part of its conventional prompt global strike program since the early 2000s. In recent years, the United States has focused such efforts on developing hypersonic glide vehicles, which are launched from a rocket before gliding to a target, and hypersonic cruise missiles, which are powered by high-speed, air-breathing engines during flight.
REPORT: CRS - China Primer: Illicit Fentanyl and China's Role - 18 July 2022
Addressing illicit fentanyl in the context of the ongoing opioid crisis in the United States is a domestic and foreign policy issue for the 117th Congress. In addressing the international dimensions of the problem, policymakers have endeavored to stop foreign-sourced fentanyl, fentanyl-related substances (i.e., analogues and precursor chemicals), and emerging synthetic opioids from entering the United States. U.S. counternarcotics policy has included a focus on reducing fentanyl and fentanyl precursor flows from the People's Republic of China (PRC, or China).
Section IV - Books, Research Requests, Jobs, Obituaries
Books — Newly Released, Overlooked, Forthcoming
The Withdrawal: Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, and the Fragility of U.S. Power
Two intellectuals grapple with the uncertain aftermath of the American collapse in Afghanistan. Not since the last American troops left Vietnam have we faced such a sudden vacuum in our foreign policy—not only of authority, but also of explanations of what happened, and what the future holds. Chomsky and Prashad seek to "uncover the shining worlds hidden under official history and dominant media" (Eduardo Galeano)--to get at the roots of this unprecedented time of peril and change. They explore the key inflection points in America's shocking downward spiral: from the disastrous Iraq War to the failed Libyan intervention to the descent into chaos in Afghanistan. As the final moments of American power in Afghanistan fade from view, this book argues that we must not take our eyes off the wreckage or quickly put it in the rearview mirror—but we need, above all, an unsentimental view of the new world and our place in it.
Book available here
The Fifth Act: America's End in Afghanistan
A veteran ponders America's "harried withdrawal" from Afghanistan in this haunting memoir. Draws on the author's experience as a U.S. Marine and CIA officer to recount the 20-year war in Afghanistan from its earliest days to its chaotic final week. A powerful and revelatory eyewitness account of the American collapse in Afghanistan, its desperate endgame, and the war's echoing legacy. Ackerman left the American military ten years ago, but his time in Afghanistan and Iraq with the Marines and, later, as a CIA paramilitary officer, marked him indelibly. When the Taliban began to close in on Kabul in August of 2021 and the Afghan regime began its death spiral, he found himself pulled back into the conflict. Afghan nationals who had, for years, worked closely with the American military and intelligence communities, now faced brutal reprisal and sought frantically to flee the country with their families. The official US government evacuation process was a bureaucratic failure that led to a humanitarian catastrophe. With his former colleagues, and friends, protecting the airport in Kabul, Ackerman was drawn into an impromptu effort alongside a group of journalists, and other veterans, to arrange flights and negotiate with both Taliban and American forces to secure the safe evacuation of hundreds. These were desperate measures taken during a desperate end to America's longest war, but the success they achieved afforded a degree of redemption. And, for Ackerman, a chance to reconcile his past with his present.
Book may be ordered here
Paths of Dissent: Soldiers Speak Out Against America's Misguided Wars
Veterans from far-flung conflicts decry the American way of war. A collection of grim essays of U.S. soldiers' indictments against the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Contributor Erik Edstrom, who attended West Point out of "a conflated mix of economic necessity and idealistic do-goodery" came to believe the "War on Terror" was "illegal, immoral, self-perpetuating, and counterproductive." Joy Damiani spent two years in her division's public affairs offices in Georgia, "making PR look like news and an unwinnable war look like a victory," before being sent to Baghdad, where she was rarely permitted to leave the base for her reporting and never allowed to use the word failure in print. Elsewhere, Dan Berchinski describes losing both his legs to an IED in Afghanistan, and Kevin Tillman details how the Bush administration lied about his brother Pat Tillman's death from friendly fire.
Book may be ordered
CFP: IAFIE Citadel Conference - "Intelligence Education in a Contested World" - 20-22 October 2022
Call for Proposals — for conference to be held at The Citadel — The Military College of South Carolina which will host the annual IAFIE (International Association for Intelligence Education) conference in Charleston, SC from 20-22 October 2022.
CFP on "Domestic Intelligence Organizations in Non-Democratic Regimes" for the International Journal of Intelligence and CounterIntelligence
The resurgence of authoritarianism in the 21st century coincides with transformations in intelligence that offer states greater surveillance capabilities than any other era of human history. This special issue will explore intelligence in non-democratic regimes to elicit insights on how these non-democratic intelligence cultures and practices might harness intelligence in the future compared to how they have in the past. The editors are particularly interested in case studies that focus less on theory and more on history and new evidence, although papers that offer original theoretical concepts are welcome.
Seeking to hire Cyber Security Consultant with expertise with cross domain Security - Huntsville, AL
Cybersecurity Faculty Positions Available Nationwide
Cybersecurity faculty, professionals, and master's or Ph.D. Graduates can explore employment opportunities with National Centers of Academic Excellence in Cybersecurity designated institutions through the listings here.
National Academies Seeking Director for Intelligence Community Studies Board - Keck Center, Washington, DC
College in Lynchburg, VA Seeks Assistant Professor to teach Intelligence and National Security - Fall, Full-time
Liberty University is seeking a full time, residential, Assistant Professor to teach Intelligence and National Security courses in the School of Government. Courses support a curriculum which features a major or minor field of study in Strategic Intelligence Studies and include Introduction to Intelligence, Intelligence Analysis, Ethics in Intelligence, History of Intelligence, Intelligence and Military Operations, Strategic Intelligence, Counter Intelligence, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism and Psychological Operations. A minimum of a Master's Degree and extensive experience in the Intelligence profession is required.
Seeking Director of Global and National Security Programs - Univ of New Mexico
The University of New Mexico (UNM) invites applications for the part-time (.50 FTE) position of Director of Global and National Security Programs. This position will be for four years with the possibility of renewal and will report to the Office of the Provost and Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs.
Full-Time Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice (Intelligence Studies) - University of North Georgia, Dahlonega, GA
Job Summary: Type: Full-Time; Posted: 02/02/2022; Category: Criminal Justice; Job ID: 238891
Tenure-Track Assistant Professor in Intelligence, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL
Job Description: The Department of Security Studies and International Affairs (SSIA) at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL., invites candidates to apply for a tenure-track Assistant Professor position in Intelligence (GEOINT). The successful candidate should have experience in one or more of the domains related to intelligence and security with skillsets in technologies such as Geospatial Intelligence, Remote Sensing using Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), satellite imagery, as well as spatial analyses using Geographic Information Systems (GIS).
John Powers, Sr Official FEMA; DOE, DOD, and ODNI on Countering Nuclear Terrorism
AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....
Virtual = ; In-Person =
Saturday, 13 August 2022, 11:30 am EDT - Melbourne, FL - AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter Luncheon features Col Stephen Bond discussing "Intelligence in the Panama Operations 1989."
At this in-person luncheon event, the AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter hosts Colonel Stephen Bond, US Army (Retired), who will discuss "Intelligence in the Panama Operation 1989."
6 October 2022 (Thursday), 11:30am - 2pm - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Andre LeGallo Chapter hosts Lt. Col. Roger S. Dong. Lt. Col. Dong will be discussing developments in the U.S., Taiwan and China relations.
Speaker: Roger Dong, Lt. Colonel (ret.), United States Air Force Date: Thursday, October 6, 2022
Friday, 4 November 2022, 10:30am - 2pm EST - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National In-Person Winter Luncheon
Hold the date. AFIO will be hosting an in-person speaker luncheon at the DoubleTree Hotel, Tysons Corner.
Other Upcoming Events from Advertisers, Corporate Sponsors, and Others
Wednesday, 27 July 2022 - See Website - CIRA National Summer Lunch Features John Brennan
Please join your CIRA colleagues for our Summer National Lunch!
Wednesday, 27 July 2022, 6:30-7:30pm EDT – Washington, DC – Agent Josephine Baker with Damien Lewis and Jonna Mendez – Virtual International Spy Museum Program
Prior to World War II, Josephine Baker was a music-hall diva renowned for her singing and dancing, her beauty and sexuality; she was the highest-paid female performer in Europe. When the Nazis seized her adopted city, Paris, she was banned from the stage. Yet instead of returning to America, she vowed to stay and to fight the Nazi evil. Overnight, she went from performer to Resistance spy. Join us for a compelling conversation about Baker with author Damien Lewis and former CIA Chief of Disguise Jonna Mendez. Lewis has uncovered little-known history about the famous singer's life in his new book Agent Josephine: American Beauty, French Hero, British Spy. Discover how Baker became a hero of the three countries in whose name she served—the US, France, and Britain--and fully deserving of her unique place in the French Panthéon. Visit www.spymuseum.org.
Tuesday, 2 August 2022, 6 - 7:30pm EDT - Virtual - The OSS Society's "Oh So Social" Conversation Series features General David Petraeus + Dr. Michael Vickers
Thursday, 27 October 2022, 4:30 - 6:30 pm - Hanover, MD - Cocktails and Codebreakers Event
Please join the National Cryptologic Foundation (NCF) and the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA) for Cocktails and Codebreakers, a celebration of women in codebreaking.
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Guide to the Study of Intelligence and When Intelligence Made a Difference
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