AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 2

17 January 1998

AFIO Email Intelligence Notes (EIN) are produced by AFIO for AFIO members. EIN retransmission is not permitted except with express agreement of the editor, Roy Jonkers, for purposes of promoting AFIO's educational objectives. Back issues of the report are stored on the AFIO Homepage.


AFIO luncheon mini-symposium - 9 March 1998 at Fort Myer, Virginia. Socialize with friends and colleagues while benefiting from the views of experts on issues of intelligence interest. The doors will open at 10:30 am. The session features TWO outstanding speakers (first at 11am -12 noon., second from 1pm - 2pm) - as well as the incomparable Fort Myers cuisine du jour (12noon to 1 pm).

In the first period (11-12 noon) an outstanding expert speaker will address the complexities and strategies of stopping the flow nuclear and ballistic missile technology from Russia to the Islamic Middle East. The speaker has not as yet been confirmed.

For the second session, 1-2pm, we are honored to feature Ambassador Richard McCormick, former Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, Department of State, to address current ASIAN economic and financial trends. Ambassador McCormick is deeply involved in financial analysis in the area and has just returned from Southeast Asia. The economic, political and intelligence implications of recent financial problems in East Asia need no elaboration.

Both sessions may again be video-taped for use by the AFIO chapters and programs

Register now and assure a seat. Take a colleague. Recruit and bring a new member for AFIO. Send in your name, telephone number and check for $24 (members and their guests) or $29 (non-members - spread the word) to the AFIO office at 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303a, McLean VA 22101-4533.


CIA's NON-PROLIFERATION CENTER ENLARGED - Two weeks after the abrupt resignation of the director of the center, the DCI informed CIA employees he plans to double the size of the center and to give its director more clear-cut authority. The resignation of the director was ascribed to a plan by lower-ranking CIA managers to cut the staff and the budget of the center. This provoked charges on Capitol Hill that the center was being muzzled because its intelligence frequently exposed troublesome activities by US allies and other nations. The DCI will add 100 or so analysts to help monitor global proliferation of ballistic missiles and chemical, nuclear and biological arms. The analysts would be transferred from competing bureaucracy, the Office of Transnational Issues.The new director is John A. Lauder. The DCI reportedly plans to ask NSA, DIA, and NIMA to lend additional experts to the center. (Sources: Wpost 4Nov97, pA15; NYT 21Oct97 pgA12; AFP 22Oct97)

DEFENSE HUMINT NOT TO GO TO CIA - During his confirmation hearings before the Senate Armed Services Committee to become the deputy DCI, Lt General John Gordon testified that the DOD Defense HUMINT Service (DHS) should not be transferred to the CIA. This position is contrary to the recommendations of the Aspin/Brown Commission.. Merger of the DHS, which conducts DOD covert HUMINT collection as well as managing the Defense Attache System, into the Operations Directorate of the CIA had been under serious consideration. The General noted that the DHS and CIA were increasingly working together in the field and are coordinating their requirements. He stated that there are "two joint bases" in operation but declined to specify their missions. (Source Jane's Defence Weekly 29 October 97 p 11)

MEXICAN DRUG RING HIRES SOPHISTICATED HELP - The Arellano Felix drug trafficking organization, widely viewed as the most violent of the Mexican organizations, has hired foreign mercenaries, including at least one US Army Special Forces individual and one Lebanese, to train cartel security forces in military and surveillance techniques. New materiel provided by the mercenaries include night-vision equipment, encryption devices, and equipment to intercept and jam police communications. (Wpost 4 Nov97 p A12)

EFFORTS AGAINST CYBER TERRORISM URGED - The President's commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection has given the White House a 269 page report warning of increasing US vulnerability to attacks by terrorists using computers. Citing examples of costly attacks on computer systems, the panel said " Today, the right command sent over a network to a power -generating station's control computer could be just as effective as a backpack full of explosives, and the perpetrator would be harder to identify and apprehend." Recommendations included (1) Establish an Information Analysis and Warning Center; (2) Create anonymous reporting, avoiding public loss of confidence; 3) Enact legislation to enable private companies to conduct background checks on computer experts; (4) Create White House office to coordinate the security roles of the departments of Commerce, Defense, Energy, Justice, Treasure and Transportation; (5) Quadruple research on cyberspace security to $1Billion a year by 2004. Grants would go to universities, industry and government. (Wpost 21Oct97 pgA9; Financial Times 23 Oct 97, pg7; USA Today, 20Oct97 pg17A)


EAST GERMANY SPY HISTORY. - According to German newspaper reports citing research of STASI archives by German scholar Jochen Staadt, CIA had a spy network reporting on top personalities and operations of the East German communist party in the 1960's. The ring was discovered and rolled up by the STASI (East German Ministry of State Security) in 1966. Another instance of CIA penetration success. (WTimes 11 Dec 97)

NUCLEAR WEAPON PROLIFERATION - TAIWAN - Former intelligence officials are quoted as stating that a CIA covert asset, cultivated for over TWO DECADES, a colonel in the Taiwan forces, rose to the top of Taiwan's secret nuclear weapons program, and at a critical moment, provided information ten years ago that was used to bring the program to a halt. Ambassador (retired) James Lilley, former CIA station chief in Beijing, was quoted as saying that it was time for the case to be publicly acknowledged as "a great success, a classic in the annals of intelligence, which should be known to the American public."

A study on this matter to be published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists shows how a nation can secretly assemble a nuclear weapons program piece by piece, as has been done by US allies and enemies with varying success - among them Israel, Iraq, and Iran. The study indicates how international political and diplomatic pressure can disrupt a nation's dreams of possessing arms. (see excellent article by Tim Weiner, NYT 20 Dec 97, quoted by, 2 Jan 98.)

INTELLIGENCE LEAKS.- A former US ambassador to the UK, Ray Seitz, has been quoted as stating that relations between London and the US were so adversely affected during his tenure (1991-1994) that London stopped passing sensitive intelligence to the White House because "it often seemed to find its way back to the IRA." Quoting David Wastell of the London Daily Telegraph, "It is understood that British officials learned that some within the White House were so eager to demonstrate their friendship with Mr Adams and his Sinn Fein colleagues that they were communicating secret information gleaned by MI6 and MI5 British intelligence in Northern Ireland - some of which could have endangered the safety of security officers." If true, intelligence was used as a pawn in a larger diplomatic game - not for the first time, nor the last. (source Wash Times 18 Jan98 pg A7)

RUSSIA'S BALLISTIC MISSILE AND NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY LEAKS .- Preventing nuclear and ballistic missile proliferation in theIslamic Middle East has been proclaimed as a top US political and intelligence priority. Diplomatic pressure is having some results in that the Russians recently made renewed commitments to take steps to halting the flow of support to Iran. To be effective, however, the problem must also be addressed at the source - unpaid, unemployed Russian scientists and laboratories - not only from an intelligence perspective, but as practical political and economic matter.People need to eat. In 1992, according to Susan Eisenhower, Chairman of the Center for Political and Strategic Studies, the International Scientific and Technical Center (ISTC) was established and has employed some 17,000 weapons scientists, diverting them to nonmilitary projects. Through Nun-Lugar funds, assistance has been provided for reducing weapons of mass destruction, but effectiveness has been diminished through inadequate funding and debilitating constraints imposed by Congress. The programs are increasingly in jeopardy in Congress. ISTC has been cut 40%. For excellent coverage of this topic, see Book Report below. (source WPost 18Jan98).

BALTICS. - The three Baltic nations signed a "Charter of Partnership" with the US on 16 January 1998, seen by some as a step in the direction of inclusion into NATO, by others as a substitute for achieving that status. There is no current military threat. The Balt's armed forces, pathetically weak, are getting help from NATO countries, particularly Denmark. Numerically they are about equal to the decrepit Russian army forces stationed in the nearby Petersburg area. Perhaps the booming Russian-Balt trade, mainly in transit commerce and money-laundering, may ameliorate the reciprocal suspicions over time. (Economist 17 Jan 98, p46; WPost 15 Jan98)


AVOIDING NUCLEAR ANARCHY: Containing the Threat of Loose Russian Nuclear Weapons and Fissile Material, by Graham T. Allison ( MIT Press, 292 pages $16,00). The book provides insightful analysis and a practical approach to minimizing the threat of nuclear proliferation, but posits that it will require an appropriate vision of US strategic direction to guide both the Executive and the Congress. If you can, read the book; if not, peruse the excellent review in - The New York Review of Books, 5 February 1998, pages 15 - 17.


Short items, with fact and opinion marked, properly sourced, and identified as quotes or paraphrased, are invited. Send to editor via email.


1. AFIO mini-symposium/luncheon - 9 March 1998 at Fort Myers. See registration announcement above.

2. AFIO National Intelligence Priorities Survey (IPS) Symposium - 20 May 1998, one day only,Wednesday 0730 - 1600, at Tysons Corner Marriott, Va., - eminent speakers and experts will provide updates on a range of Presidential Intelligence Priorities - non-proliferation, international crime syndicate intelligence, narcotics intelligence, economic espionage, financial intelligence, computer/cyber espionage, counterintelligence etc.Registration fee: AFIO members $99, non-members $129. Seating limited. First come first served. Spread the word Take a guest. Send your name and check to AFIO, citing symposium title.

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