AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 4

30 January 1998


AFIO EIN Commentaries are a new initiative to advance AFIO educational objectives and to provide additional value for membership. Back issues of the report are stored on the AFIO Homepage under the "Intelligence Notes" heading. EIN retransmission is not permitted except with concurrence of the EIN Editor, Roy Jonkers.

NOTE: This is an abbreviated report. The editor is going skiing in Colorado.


AFIO LUNCHEON / MINI-SYMPOSIUM - 9 March 1998 at Fort Myer, Virginia.

Mr. JOHN LAUDER (11:00-12:00), Director of the CIA Non-Proliferation Center, will cover his organization's role and address the problem of nuclear and ballistic missile technology flowing from Russia to the Islamic Middle East.

AMBASSADOR RICHARD MCCORMICK (1pm - 2 pm), former Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, recently interacting at highest levels with Asian Governments, will assess the current ASIAN economic and financial trends and implications. Outstanding and authoritative speaker addressing topic of high interest for political and corporate intelligence as well as individual market prospects.

Social hour starts at 10:30 am. TWO outstanding speakers (first at 11am -12 noon., second from 1pm - 2pm), plus the incomparable Fort Myer cuisine du jour (12 noon to 1 p.m.).

REGISTER now and assure a seat. Take a colleague. Recruit and bring a new member for AFIO. Send in your name, telephone number and check for $24 (members and their guests) or $29 (non-members - spread the word) to the AFIO office at 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303a, McLean VA 22101-4533.


CONGRESSIONAL HEARINGS TESTIMONY - DCI George Tenet, DIA Director LTG Patrick Hughes, and Assistant Secretary of State for INR Phyllis Oakley testified in open session before the Senate Intelligence committee on 28 Janueary 1998. The DCI presented a full slate of intelligence interests. Asian issues range from the implications of the current financial turmoil (Note that the AFIO 9 March mini-symposium will address this topic) and the economic problems in North Korea (which are destabilizing the regime) to the Chinese transfer of "weapons of mass destruction" to Pakistan and India. The DCI's judgments concerning the Middle East were that the area had become more volatile during the past year. Tensions between Turky and Greece are high. Iran is a great challenge for the US in terms of political stability and direction, as moderates and hard-liners struggle for control; in terms of weapons capability, as it builds a ballistic missile capability; and in terms of Iran's continued involvement in global terrorism. Iraq was adjudged to be continuing to hide some CBW capabilities.

The DCI additionally stated that several nations have begun to build information warfare capabilities, and that attacks on military, civil and corporate computer systems and networks, emanating from states as well as criminals and terrorists, must be expected, on the battlefield or within civil society.

Responding to questions on the need for new secrecy laws, in the context of past accusations that members of Congress leaked secret information, the DCI stated the executive branch also leaked like a sieve. " There is guilt everywhere. But . . .there are people all over in the executive branch who have violated this trust." (Sources WT 29 Jan98 pA1, Wpost page A7. NOTE: For complete coverage, check web

IRANIAN BALLISTIC MISSILE CAPABILITY - As if to confirm the DCI's statement on Executive branch leaks, the Washington Times reported access to a classified US intelligence report indicating that Iran is expected to field its first prototype Shahab-3 and Shahab-4 ballistic missiles within 18 months. (WTimes 29 J98 pg A12)

TURKEY - Turkish intelligence, police and military officials are accused of using organized gangsters in death squads and hired assassins to torture and kill Kurdish rebels and businessmen suspected of assisting them. A recent report implicated the Government, alleging that $50 million was spent on a campaign of assassinations as part of a thirteen year old war against the Kurdish separatists. (Source WT 29 Jan98 p A13, Wpost 24 Jan pg A17)

ISRAELI SURVEILLANCE SATELLITE LOST - The Ofek-4, an Israeli reconnaissance satellite, secretly launched from a base in central Israel, was reported to have failed to achieve orbit and burned up in the atmosphere on 22 January. The alleged mission was surveillance of Iran, Iraq and Syria, according to Israeli media. Israeli satellite launches started in 1988. Ofek 2 was launched in April 1990, after Saddam Hussein's hysterical threat to wipe out half of Israel with chemical weapons if Israel attacked Baghdad. Ofek 3 was launched in 1996 and is still on orbit, but is reaching the end of its life. (Source Wtimes 24 Jan98)


Short items, with fact and opinion marked, properly sourced, and identified as quotes or paraphrased, are invited. Also pointers to new literature. Send notes to the Editor via email.


1. AFIO luncheon / mini-symposium - 9 March 1998 at Fort Myer, Virginia. See details above. REGISTER NOW! Support AFIO objectives. Bring a colleague!

2. First annual AFIO NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES SYMPOSIUM (NIPS) Wednesday 20 May 1998, from 0730 - 1600, at Tysons Corner Marriott, Va., - -covering priorities outlined by the DCI such as non-proliferation intelligence, international crime syndicate intelligence, narcotics intelligence, economic espionage, financial intelligence, computer/cyber espionage, counterintelligence. Intelligence Community speakers.

NIPS REGISTRATION FEE: AFIO members and their guests $99, non- members $129. Quality guaranteed. Seating limited. First come first served. Spread the word. Take a guest. Send your name, address etc. and check to AFIO, citing symposium title.

3. AFIO - NATIONAL CONVENTION AND SYMPOSIUM - Thursday to Saturday, 19-21 November 1998, Miami Convention Center, Florida. Mark your calendar - plan to attend!

Return to AFIO Home Page