AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue
10 March 1998
AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to
provide added value to AFIO membership.
AFIO WINs contain excerpts of published "facts" and commentaries
derived from public media, with perspectives provided by RADM (ret)
Don Harvey and by the WIN Editor, Roy Jonkers, each of whom has over
fifty years of association with US intelligence.
Harvey's media intelligence capsules have been published for years
in the Periscope and the American Intelligence Journal. Past and
future capsules by both contributors will be indexed and maintained
in a database by AFIO in the near future.
The Editor, Roy Jonkers, has overall control and responsibility
for WIN contents.
WIN re-transmission is not permitted except with concurrence of the
WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage located at
SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
SECTION III - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services
SECTION I. HARVEY's NUGGETS
PRESS REVIEW OF DECLASSIFIED NIE's - An AP article covered
declassified National Intelligence Estimates released by the DCI in
late 1997, noting the clarity of warning of aggression. The nine-day
advance warning alert of Soviet preparations for "multi-battalion
combat operations" in Afghanistan was cited, a warning based in part
on overhead imagery of convoys of fuel trucks along narrow roads
leading to the Afghan border. The article also referenced AFIO member
Cynthia Grabo's AFIO monograph, writing that "the warning process is
plagued by uncertainty from beginning to end." It also cited the
constant problem of convincing policymakers of the validity of
warning judgments, referencing the warning of a possible Iraqi
invasion of Kuwait, which was discounted when Arab allies said that
Sadam Hussein was bluffing. "A warning judgment which is not believed
by responsible policy officials is as ineffective as no warning at
ILLEGAL EXPORTER TO CHINA ARRESTED - A Long Island resident alien,
George Cheng, a scrap dealer, was charged with attempting to
illegally export military equipment to China in 1997. The sale of
military equipment to China is prohibited. Customs agents found
navigational systems for the F-117, parts of Navy electronic warfare
jamming devices, and hundreds of spare parts for M-16 and M-41 tanks
in crates packed in crates with scrap material destined for Shanghai.
Ironically, some of the equipment had been inadvertently sold to
Cheng by DOD two years earlier. The article did not identify the
source that enabled Customs to search the proper pile of scrap.
SECTION II. JONKERS' BULLETS
IRAQI ESPIONAGE ALLEGATION - Press reports assert that a US
Pentagon source provided information to Iraqi intelligence concerning
the planned US attack, and that the FBI is investigating the matter.
Not surprisingly, there has been no official comment.
If there was espionage, it certainly appears to have been redundant.
During the past month the press has published a plethora of reports
on the planned bombing campaign and its targets, based on leaks
reflecting Washington political infighting and policy disagreements,
or possibly also, plants and disinformation. Some of these
speculations have been reflected in previous WIN reports.
Iraq's espionage profile in the US is very low. Iraq's presence in
the United States is pretty much restricted to the United Nations
delegation, which is "blanketed" by FBI operatives. Iraq's
intelligence activities during the past few years have concentrated
principally on circumventing the UN sanctions and embargo, generally
through European and Persian Gulf conduits. The headquarters of
Iraq's intelligence agency ( known as Mukhbarath) was targeted by a
US cruise missile in June 1993, after a finding that the agency was
behind an effort to assassinate former President Bush. (WT 3 March 98
ENCRYPTION WARS - NSA and FBI are spearheading the effort to
maintain some visibility into domestic and exported commercial
encryption systems for national security purposes and the pursuit of
criminals. The issue of privacy is critical to further commercial
success of the Net. Many feel threatened by outsider's - including
Government - intrusion on personal, financial and medical privacy
records and communications.
The issue impacts the entire telecommunications industry. The
Department of Justice will request that the Federal Communications
Commission set new standards for all telephone networks so that
local, state and federal law enforcement agencies have the
wiretapping capabilities for successful surveilance and prosecution
As for exports of encryption systems, as of today, products that use
keys up to 56 bits long are exportable. Industry would like to see no
export controls at all. Last year the House Permanent Select
Committee on Intelligence removed relaxed-export-controls provisions
from a bill favored by industry, and substituted provisions
stipulating that any and all US encryption products must provide
"keys" to national authorities.
This set off a massive lobbying campaign by industry, supported by
privacy advocates of all kinds. Senators John McCain and Robert
Kerrey are now crafting a compromise that bans domestic controls
within the US, and allows export of encryption products similar to
those available overseas from foreign vendors. The encryption wars
pit proponents of free speech, free trade, personal privacy and
maximizing profits against Government needs of combating crime,
terrorism and other national security (Business Wk 9 and 16 Mar 98
page 126; Wpost 27 Feb page A13).
SOVIET DEFECTOR DIES - Arkady Shevchenko, who defected to the US
in April 1978, died in obscurity in Bethesda, Maryland on 28
February. Shevchenko was a spy for the US for 30 months before his
defection. He did not provide earthshaking information on secret war
plans or weapons, but furnished valuable insights into the thinking
of people at the highest level of the Soviet Government. Shevchenko
was an ideologically motivated asset. His actions were not based on
greed, but conviction. He was considered a top CIA trophy during the
1970's. He became an American citizen, published a book "Breaking
With Moscow (Knopf 1985), and earned money on the lecture circuit.
(NYT 11 Mar page A29)
KOREAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCY LEADERSHIP CHANGES - Incoming President
Kim Dae-jung, a former dissident who was depicted as a leftwing
sympathizer by the KCIA under the previous regime, appointed key
aides to top security positions and took steps to carry out a purge
of the KCIA as well as a name change. Messrs Shin Kuhn and Ra
Jong-yil were named as vice-directors of the "Agency for National
Security Planning" (ANSP), formerly known as the KCIA, and senior
agency officials were being questioned about plots and smears against
the now-prime minister.
The government also said that many laws restricting exchanges with
North Korea would be scrapped. Unification Minister Kang In-duk
stated on television that he would take an aggressive approach toward
easing relations with North Korea. Talks between North and South
Korea, the US and China will resume on 16 March toward a permanent
Incidentally, and of related interrest, North Korea has turned the
Pueblo, the captured US Navy intelligence ship, into a tourist
attraction. North Korea's seizure of the Pueblo 30 years ago led to a
high state of alert at the time. The crew was eventually released in
December 1968 but the ship stayed in North Korea, and the incident as
exploited by Pyongyang as a great blow to the prestige of the US.
Which it was. (WT 9 Mar 98 page A16; Inside China Today, 26 Jan
MI-6 AND THE MEN IN PINK - For the first time MI6 is said to have
sent a gay couple abroad on an espionage mission. The new "closet and
dagger" operation is seen as part of MI 6's growing recognition that
the world is changing. The gay spies cover was blown in January, when
Sir Gerald Warner, former deputy head of MI 6, disclosed it, later
stating he thought he was giving a private talk. The government did
On a more serious note, the UK Government "data protection registrar"
has demanded that MI5, MI6 and GCHQ register all their secret files
on British citizens and allow public access, a serious challenge to
the traditional secrecy of Britain's intelligence services. The
agencies also may have to disclose personal data held on any of their
9,000 personnel. UK data protection laws provide that any individual
is entitled to see information held on them in computer data bases.
The Police and National Criminal Intelligence Service are adhering to
the law. The Home Secretary is wrestling with the question of
application to the intelligence agencies. (UK The Times, Feb 1, 2;
SECTION III . AFIO EVENTS & ANNOUNCEMENTS
20 May 1998 - AFIO SYMPOSIUM
INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES REVIEW (IPR 98)
0730 - 1600, Tysons Corner Marriott, Va.
- REVIEW OF INTELLIGENCE & COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ISSUES:
- Russia/China Estimate
- Weapons of Mass Destruction Non-Proliferation
- Nuclear Arms Control
- Counter Intelligence issues
- International Crime, Terrorism and Narcotics Networks,
- Economic espionage and counter-espionage.
- Congressional Issues
- Executive Agency (DCI, FBI etc) speakers.
TO ASSURE A SEAT, send in your name, tel. number and check to
LIMIT one hundred (100) seats: $99 for AFIO members, $129 for
- Highly recommended is a new book about Air Force Special
Operations during the Cold War by Col Michael Haas, USAF (ret),
entitled "Apollo's Warriors." Published Air University Press, 1997,
and for sale GPO Stock# 008-070-00726-6 (GPO tel 202 512 1800)
- Looking for a new career? Read Mark Merritt's "Alternative
Careers in Secret Operations: Your Guide to a New Identity, Life and
Career." Geared to people who seek opportunities utilizing their
intelligence-related skills. Recommended by Admiral William Studeman,
USN (ret), for Deputy Director of Central Intelligence.
- Need to search the Web for an investigation? Get David Vine's
excellent "Investigator's Internet Resource Guide." Will save time
and assist your inquiry. Order from
- Like your information in the form of a suspense novel? Read
about military attache's, written by someone who has been there:
Major General (ret)"Chuck" Scanlon's "The Attaches," ( IM Press Inc,
PO Box 377, Fairfax Station VA 22039-0377) - before the story is sold
- Recommended for student researchers is a publication by the
Department of Defense Security Institute (Richmond, Va 23297-5901)
entitled: "Recent Espionage Cases: Summaries and Sources" (July
- Washington attorney frequently represents intelligence officers
on issues of national security, privacy, FOI act and federal
employment problems. Contact ZaidMS@aol.com.
-Jim Ferrier, C-K & Associates, Milwaukee WI, specializes in
examining questioned (altered, forged etc) documents. Contact
- Albano Ponte specializes in arranging US dollar loans in developing
countries (minimum request $5 M) . Email to firstname.lastname@example.org.
- David Bedenbaugh is a financial advisor who focuses on retirement
planning. Call 301 897 5999 or email@example.com.
- Corporation is looking for a former Artillery Battalion Cmdr
(7plus years experience, AC&GS College grad), to train Direct
Support and Reinforcing commanders and staffs during LTP rotations.
Qualified individuals contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
- Former Joint Staff Officer, graduate degrees in International
Relations & National Security Affairs, graduate Russian linguist
school, Russia and Middle East analyst, program manager and national
intelligence officer, looking for position involving international
marketing, strategic planning or program management. Contact
- Former commander of multinational peacekeeping and humanitarian
assistance in Northern Iraq seeks position in international relief
and development. Government experience in intelligence,
post-government in business development with DARPA and IC community.
- Senior Engineer, BSEE, coinventor of state-of-the-art biometrics
security system based on real-time recognition of facial images,
Tempest systems development, EMC/EMI, frequency management
engineering, seeks new challenges. For reference, contact email@example.com
- Goal-oriented project manager, polished briefer, former
speechwriter for DCI Bill Casey, looking for post-retirement position
in June 1998. Contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
- Former Army special operations officer (Colonel), engineering
degrees, excellent analyst and writer, several years experience with
DARPA advanced projects, seeks association with interesting program.
Contact email@example.com for
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