AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue
16 March 1998
AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to
provide added value to AFIO membership. The Editor, Roy Jonkers, is
responsible for WIN contents. WIN re-transmission is not permitted
except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.
WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage
SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets (none available for this edition)
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets (annotated RJ)
SECTION III - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services
CIA CREDIT FOR IRAN RESCUE OPERATION 1980 - In November 1979
militant Iranian students seized the American Embassy taking and
holding 66 Americans hostage for 444 days. Six diplomats who were not
in the compound took refuge in the Canadian Embassy, and were
covertly exfiltrated by the CIA. Canadian Ambassador Ken Taylor
received the credit, but recently the Canadian Broadcast Corporation
aired a documentary revealing that the rescue operation was
engineered by the CIA. This was confirmed by former DCI Admiral
Stansfield Turner. Although Ambassador Taylor deserves much credit,
at the time the US was pleased to let the Canadians get sole credit,
for it made further retaliation against our hostages less likely. One
can only be pleased that occasionally a positive CIA accomplishment
is publicized. (RJ)
BAY OF PIGS REPORT - As reported previously, the one surviving
copy of the CIA Inspector General's post-mortem on the Bay of Pigs,
by the late Lyman Kirkpatrick, has been made public. It was extremely
critical of CIA. In the words of AFIO's Ward Warren: "In the
commercial world, an auditor is someone who comes in after the battle
and bayonets the wounded. In the federal government, this function is
carried out by Inspectors General. Lyman Kirkpatrick's report on the
Bay of Pigs exemplifies an Inspector General at the top of his
In a call for balance in the assessment of the report, Warren
recommends that the search for accuracy should start with a reading
of Richard Bissell's response to the IG report. There was a consensus
that the Kirkpatrick report was unnecessarily harsh, in part because
it was a weapon used by Kirkpatrick to advance his own position and
eliminate rivals, particularly Bissell. Kirkpatrick wanted to become
DCI. Warren's reasoned statement will be printed in full in the
Periscope and is highly recommended reading for all who are
interested in a balanced assessment of this report. One can expect
the media and authors to provide abundant negative reporting, exactly
as then-DCI McCone expected. (Ward Warren statement, AFIO Periscope;
WP 15 March 98, pageC5) (RJ)
ARMS FOR AFGHANISTAN - Western and US intelligence sources are
cited in reports that Ukrainian arms shipments, financed by Saudi
Arabia and Pakistan, are flowing to the fundamentalist Taleban
forces. Some 55 cargo flights with Ukrainian arms have recently
landed in Peshawar, and shiploads of arms have arrived in Karachi for
movement to Kabul. Meanwhile, in Northern and Western Afghanistan,
the anti-Taleban alliance is receiving arms from Russia, Uzbekistan
and Iran. All indications are of renewed fighting on a major scale
Past opposition to the Taleban has been based mostly based on tribal
differences, pitting the minority Uzbeks, Tajiks and Hazaras in the
north and west against the majority Pashtuns, the tribal base of the
Taleban movement. The new anti-Taleban alliance is broader-based and
now includes Pashtun representation.
Russian interest in Afghanistan is simple - they do not favor the
de-stabilizing spread of Islamic fundamentalism in their southern
area of interest. The Uzbek and Tadjik republics are supporting their
cousins. Iranian interests in opposing the Taleban are believed to
center on protecting the Shi'ite Hazaras tribe in the center-west
region. General Massood, the anti-Taleban alliance commander,
supposedly visited Teheran recently to coordinate strategy, which
will probably include an offensive to retake the western city of
Heirat from the Taleban. The Ukrainian interest is also simple -
money - have arms, will sell.
The Taleban enjoy the support of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, but are
coping with internal strains between majority hard-liners and a
minority advocating accommodation. International intrigue is in full
swing as in the days of Lord Byron, and another catharsis of violence
must be expected. (WT 6 March 98 page A5; WT 14 Mar 98 page A11,
Economist 14Mar p 48) (RJ)
IRAQ - The news media have been flooded with commentaries on
options on dealing with Saddam Hussein, ranging from "covert" action
to kill him - a subject of negative comment in the European press -
to the establishment of a "Radio Free Iraq." Military commentator
Harry Summers recently drew attention to the differences in military
options facing the US Commanders today and those in the Gulf War in
1990/91. Seldom mentioned in our media or political discussions is
that this was a coalition war. US allies, including Arab allies,
provided some 200,000 troops from 38 nations, with 1,200 tanks, 750
aircraft and 60 warships, as well as essential logistics support, and
$54 billion in financial contributions to a war estimated to have
cost $61 billion. War, quotes Summers from Clausewitz, is primarily a
political act. During the first Gulf War an effective political
coalition was formed, including local Arab allies. Today that is not
the case, leaving military options severely limited.
It may be argued, however, that our present arsenal of options,
including the threat of devastating air strikes, pervasive
reconnaissance intelligence surveillance, covert intelligence
operations, political action including repressive sanctions and
intrusive inspections, and finally, diplomacy, are not insignificant,
and while not as clear-cut and satisfying (to armchair observers) as
killing by military force, are likely to attain our strategic ends
against this small fourth rate power. (WT 14 March page A16) (RJ)
MOSSAD CHEMICAL WARFARE - The counter-espionage department of Shin
Beth is investigating the source of leaks to the media about the
bungled Israeli spying - or assassination - mission in Switzerland.
Israeli press reports have suggested that persons close to Prime
Minister Netanyahu leaked the reports in order to force the
resignation of the former Mossad Chief Danny Yatom.
Meanwhile a senior Mossad officer has been quoted as saying that the
operation in Switzerland (see previous WIN) was an assassination
attempt, not a wiretapping. The target had been two Iranian
businessmen suspected to helping Hezbollah acquire biological or
chemical weapons from East Europe. According to the Mossad officer,
the same poison method was to be used against the Iranians as that
which failed in the attempt to assassinate Khalid Mish'al in Jordan.
That attempt failed when, "instead of spraying the toxin into his
ear, from where it should have traveled to the brain, causing
hemorrhage and death with six to sixteen hours, the poison struck his
neck and collar." He said the Switzerland operation had been approved
by Danny Yatom and was strongly opposed by others within the Mossad,
some of whom had resigned. The Mossad officer source motivation for
leaking this information was allegedly to influence the choice of
Dani Yatom's successor.
The new Chief of Mossad was announced on 4 March. It is Efraim
Halevy, former deputy director of Mossad and Israel's ambassador to
the European Union. His deputy will be Major General Amiram Levine.
(Agence France Press, 3 Mar 98; London Times, 3 March 98, LAT 5 Mar
98 page A2) (RJ)
NEW AIR RECONNAISSANCE PLATFORM - The Pentagon is said to be
considering a replacement of the venerable U-2 over the next 10 to 20
years, a proposal will engender a good deal of controversy and
bureaucratic infighting. The program is code-named U-X, and
preliminary design work is said to be underway at the Lockheed skunk
works. Some opponents argue that the U-2's mission can be performed
by satellites in the future, while others promote the high-altitude
unmanned systems (UAV's) now under development -- Global Hawk and
Dark Star. Information attributed to Air Force sources indicate that
the U-X would be able to fly with or without a pilot aboard, and be
far more capable than the UAV's now being planned.
The U-2's still being used today over Iraq are descendants of the U-2
shot down over Russia in 1960. Recent versions are more powerful,
providing more timely and better intelligence, but the useful service
life of even the latest airframes will not extend much beyond 2015.
Participants of past battles over reconnaissance systems will
recognize the players in this fight for resources: within the Air
Force the competing high-cost fighter planes - the F-22 Raptor and
the Joint Strike Fighter; the Space lobby; the UAV lobby, etc. etc.
It is a battle waged within the Pentagon and in the Congress, and may
well have been a factor in the House Intelligence Committee advocacy
of abolishing the Defense Airborne Reconnaissance Office (DARO) last
Fall. (Phil. Inq, 2 Mar 98, page A; Av Wk Tech 23 Feb 98 page 105)
SECTION III . AFIO EVENTS & ANNOUNCEMENTS
20 May 1998 - National Intelligence Priorities Review '98 (NIPR
1 June 1998 - AFIO Luncheon, Ft Myer 1030 - 2 pm, featuring former
DDCI (and acting DCI )Admiral William Studeman on Intelligence
Issues, and Dr. Chandler (invited) on the creation process and issues
of the 1997 Corporate Espionage Law. ($26 for members, 29
20 May 1998 - AFIO SYMPOSIUM
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE PRIORITIES REVIEW (NIPR 98)
0730 - 1600, hosted by OSS 98, Tysons Corner Marriott,
REVIEW OF INTELLIGENCE & COUNTERINTELLIGENCE ISSUES:
- Congressional Issues in Intelligence - (whistleblowers,
privacy, HUMINT, UAV's etc)
- Executive Agency (DCI, FBI etc) speakers.
- Russia & China Assessments
- Weapons of Mass Destruction Non-Proliferation
- Nuclear Arms Control
- Counter Intelligence issues in International Crime, Terrorism
and Narcotics Networks, Economic espionage and
TO ASSURE A SEAT, send in your name, tel. number and check to
AFIO, 6723 Whittier Avenue, McLean, Va 22101.
17-20 MAY 98
LIMIT one hundred (100) seats: $99 for AFIO members, $129 for
SYMPOSIUM OSS 98 -- GLOBAL SECURITY AND GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS: OPEN
Tysons Corner Marriott.
This is the seventh year for this always outstanding international
conference on open source intelligence issues, featuring WORLD CLASS
speakers on open sources and methods. Different, interesting,
stimulating, international and highly recommended!
21 MAY 98
Has breakout sessions on regional sources, pricing, source
validation, and the role of the Internet in supporting intelligence
and CI missions. International networking for those who create, use
and buy open source intelligence. Free attendance at affiliated
On 21 May 98, the day following the conference, there is a classified
SCI level session on OSINT, obviously for USG personnel only. For
complete agenda and speakers, EMAIL firstname.lastname@example.org
and VISIT www.oss.net and click on Events.
CALL 703 242 1700 or FAX 242-1711. COST $475 for government,
self-employed and academics; Industry $675.
PCIC Career Development and Transition Symposium
Marriott Tysons Corner, 0800 - 1900
Includes talent scouts from within and outside the Government, and
Full day of Intelligence Community speakers, including heads of
agencies, industry, job placement experts, authors. Job seekers, take
one page resume along.
REGISTRATION for exposition, seminars and networking reception - -
$35, -with further discounts for Government employees.Sign up now!
VISIT email@example.com or CALL 703 379-8400
Robert Edward Owen, 74, who retired in 1980, Directorate of
Operations, CIA, died 1 March 98 after suffering a heart attack at
his home in McLean, Va.
-Security Studies for the 21st Century, edited by Richard Shultz
et.al. Provides instructors and curriculum planners with model
curricula and model courses that reflect the changes in the
contemporary international environment. It includes a model course on
"Intelligence and Security" by professor Roy Godson with
contributions by professors Bradford Westerfield and Ernest May.
(Brassey's Inc., January 1998, ISBN 1-57488-066-7 $49.95. Contact
Louise Muniak (703) 260 0602 ext 10).
- Appollo's Warriors - Air Force Special Operations during the
Cold War by Col Michael Haas, USAF (ret), Published Air University
Press, 1997, and for sale GPO Stock# 008-070-00726-6 (GPO tel 202 512
- Alternative Careers in Secret Operations: Your Guide to a New
Identity, Life and Career," by Mark Merritt. Recommended by ADM
William Studeman, USN (ret), former DDCI.
- Investigator's Internet Resource Guide," an internet guide by
David Vine. Order from firstname.lastname@example.org.
See announcement of free seminar below (under Services).
-The Attaches, a novel by MGEN (ret)"Chuck" Scanlon's ( IM Press
Inc, PO Box 377, Fairfax Station VA 22039-0377).
- Recent Espionage Cases: Summaries and Sources (July 1997),
Department of Defense Security Institute (Richmond, Va
- For AFIO members in NY area, free four-session seminar series on
serious internet usage for business intelligence and investigations,
by author (see BOOKS) David Vine, NYPL Science, Industry and Business
Library, 34th and Madison, 2-3:30 pm April 6, 13,20,27.
- Enjoy wargaming? Play 1st ALAMEIN, plays in about 1 hour.
Contact professor Coatney at
- Washington attorney frequently represents intelligence officers on
issues of national security, privacy, FOI act and federal employment
-Jim Ferrier, C-K & Associates, Milwaukee WI, specializes in
examining questioned (altered, forged etc) documents. Contact -
Albano Ponte specializes in arranging US dollar loans in developing
countries (minimum request $5 M) . Email to
- David Bedenbaugh is a financial advisor who focuses on retirement
planning. Call 301 897 5999 or
- Global Business Access, Ltd, is an international consulting firm
composed of over 140 former US ambassadors, senior diplomats and
intelligence officers, providing expertise on foreign countries.
Global provides briefings, consulting, introductions, due diligence,
training, security, investment services and legal support. Global
seeks business associates. Visit or call 202 466-6249. Please let
AFIO know if you succeed!
- Corporation is looking for a former Artillery Battalion Cmdr (7plus
years experience, AC&GS College grad), to train Direct Support
and Reinforcing commanders and staffs during LTP rotations. Qualified
individuals contact email@example.com.
-Professor looking for visiting college instructor opportunity
this Fall teaching US foreign policy and security. Contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
- Former Joint Staff Officer, graduate degrees in International
Relations & National Security Affairs, graduate Russian linguist
school, Russia and Middle East analyst, program manager and national
intelligence officer, looking for position involving international
marketing, strategic planning or program management. Contact
- Former commander of multinational peacekeeping and humanitarian
assistance in Northern Iraq seeks position in international relief
and development. Government experience in intelligence,
post-government in business development with DARPA and IC community.
- Senior Engineer, BSEE, coinventor of state-of-the-art biometrics
security system based on real-time recognition of facial images,
Tempest systems development, EMC/EMI, frequency management
engineering, seeks new challenges. For reference, contact email@example.com
- Goal-oriented project manager, polished briefer, former
speechwriter for DCI Bill Casey, looking for post-retirement position
in June 1998. Contact firstname.lastname@example.org.
- Former Army special operations officer (Colonel), engineering
degrees, excellent analyst and writer, several years experience with
DARPA advanced projects, seeks association with interesting program.
Contact email@example.com for
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