AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 11

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WIN is produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret). WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor. WIN Back issues are stored on the AFIO Homepage

SECTION I - Harvey's Nuggets
SECTION II - Jonkers' Bullets
SECTION III - AFIO Announcements, Jobs and Services

SECTION I. HARVEY'S NUGGETS

- WARREN RUDMAN TO BE PFIAB CHAIRMAN - Following a four-month period as Acting Chairman of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (PFIAB), former Senator Warren Rudman has been appointed Chairman. A current member, Anthony S. Harrington, has been appointed as the new vice chair. Rudman is a partner in an international law firm and served as a New Hampshire Senator from 1980 - 1992. During the Korean War he served as a combat platoon leader and company commander. Mr. Harrington is a senior partner in a Washington law firm and a former Assistant Dean of Duke Law School. The PFIAB advises the President on the quality, quantity and adequacy of intelligence activities. (DH)

- COMMERCE DEPARTMENT CLOSING THE BARNDOOR - Commerce Secretary William Daley has announced a series of security reforms at the Department in the wake of the Huang/Lippo/DNC scandal. The number of Department security clearances have been cut by 27%, with further cuts planned. A new position of deputy assistance commerce secretary for security has been created and filled with the a former Secret Service official.
Congressional hearings in 1997 revealed that while at Commerce, John Huang was shown hundreds of classified reports on Asia at the same time that he maintained very close contacts with his former Asian employers. HE also retained his security clearances for months after going to the DNC. In light of the gross nature of the security offenses that were allowed to flourish, security-minded folk would have expected heads to roll as well as corrections implemented, but none were reported. (DH)

- DOD INTELLIGENCE OFFICE BEING REORGANIZED - The Secretary of Defense recently decided not to split off Intelligence from the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (ASD C3I). The recommendation to create a separate ASD/Intelligence had been intended to ensure greater visibility for intelligence with DoD. At this juncture, the decision is to merely restructure the intelligence office within OASD C3I, remove some acquisition functions, and to add a host of related responsibilities, including surveillance and reconnaissance and an increased role and emphasis on information assurance and security (popularly known as information war). Space and electronic warfare functions may also be included in the revised office's responsibilities.
Mr. Arthur Money, a former TRW and ESL executive and Air Force acquisition chief, has been recruited to fill the position as the head of the new office. The revised office would appear to be important enough to give the new chief a major voice within the Defense Department. (DH)

SECTION II JONKERS' BULLETS

NUCLEAR NON-PROLIFERATION CHINA-IRAN - US intelligence detected Iranian - Chinese procurement negotiations for delivery of hundreds of tons of a chemical (anhydrous hydrogen fluoride) used in purifying spent fuel from a nuclear power plant, but also potentially useful as an element in the process of enriching uranium - and therefore possibly useful for weapons production. The negotiations took place between mid-level employees of the China Nuclear Energy Industry Corporation and representatives of the Isfahan Nuclear Research Center in central Iran, and were detected, according to the press, by the National Security Agency. The negotiations aroused suspicions of US analysts as they involved discussions on use of cover stories, falsified "end user" documents and bogus telephone numbers.
After a brief dispute about whether the chemical was or was not on the list of substances maintained by international control authorities, the Chinese Government squashed the deal when the matter was officially surfaced to them by the White House. China had been persuaded earlier, in October 1997, to break its 1996 contract with Iran to build a uranium conversion facility in Iran. China is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty of 1992 and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty of 1996. It has published a list of export controls identical to that of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, of which the US is the leading member. (WP 13 Mar pg1, Chr.Sc.Mon. 13 Mar p1) (RJ )

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCES DETERIORATING -The Russian radar warning system is falling apart along with the rest of the defense establishment. Within a decade it is predicted that Russia will have a nuclear arsenal amounting to only 10% of that of the old Soviet Union, because of arms control treaties, obsolesence and economic depression. But Russia still adheres to the Mutual Assured Destruction nuclear doctrines of the Soviet era, with hair-trigger "launch on warning" possible. The possibilities for a mistake were demonstrated in 1994, when a Norwegian notification of a rocket launch in the Northern regions was lost in the Moscow bureacracy and the Russians went on "some sort of alert," according to DCI Woolsey. President Yeltsin announced the day afer that he had used the"nuclear briefcase," used for the launch decision, for the first time.
Launch on Warning depends on a reliable warning network. The radar network was severely degraded when the USSR was dismembered, and 50% of the network was lost. This summer two more warning system radars, located in Latvia will be dismantled, leaving the northwestern sector only marginally covered. In addition, the satellite-based network, consisting of elliptical orbit and geostationary systems, is also depleted. In January 1997 Defense Minister Igor Rodionov wrote a letter to Yeltsin articulating the view that the command and control systems were falling apart, stating"Russia might soon reach the threshhold beyond which its rockets and nuclear systems cannot be controlled." He was dismissed some months later and replaced by Igor Sergeyev, chief of the Strategic Rocket forces, and Russia reemphasized its reliance on nuclear deterrrence and its ability to control the system.
Russia is slow in coming to terms with the recognition of its second-class power position. The outlook is for another decade of Russian "launch on warning" posture, at least one held in reserve against adverse circumstances. The Russian decision-making eliteis divided, some wanting to maintain the status quo, others to move towards a "retaliatory launch" posture. Each side has its own inherent logic. It is clear that the need for accurate and timely intelligence - on all sides - to prevent mistakes, is nowhere greater. (For full text of excellent article, see Wash Post 15 March 98, pages A1, A24 & 25) (RJ)

RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCY ROUNDUP - The Kremlin is worried by increased foreign espionage activities in Russia. Federal Security Service (FSB) Chief Nikolai Kovalyov announced that Russia "has not seen such a high number of captured spies of foreign secret services since World War II." During 1996, the FSB announced that they caught 27 professional spies and 60 Russians in the pay of foreign powers. No data were given for 1997, but Russian security services have received more than 900 calls on the hotline they opened last year, including 46 self-confessed spies.
The media initially ridiculed the hotline, but currently features stories of confessed spies, such as that of Nikolai Smirnov, who confessed on the hotline to selling ship blueprints to the CIA, and of "Sasha," who passed defense institute secrets to the British. The FSB Press Center is using the confessions to score public relations points.
Article 275 of the new Russian Criminal Code introduced last year exonerates those who confess that they are working for foreign intelligence agencies. Spying used to carry the death penalty, but is now punishable by up to 20 years in prison.

The FSB is one of the successor organizations of the KGB, and is the Kremlin's domestic security arm. It recently received a boost in power when the border guards organization of some 220,000 personnel were subordinated to the agency. The border guard service had been detached from the KGB by Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev in 1991 in order to reduce its power. The current re-subordination is a reaction to the growth of the border guards organization, which is top heavy with generals and generally bloated, and can now expect to be pruned in the continuing fierce competition for budget funds. (London Tel 27 Ja98, Russia Today 27 Jan98, St Petersburg Tms Feb 16-22, 98, CNN Interactive 26 Jan 98) (RJ)

MI-5 PHONE-IN SERVICE - Not to be outdone by the FSB, the British counter-espionage service, MI-5, - which has come out of the cold in recent years and recruited agents with newspaper ads last year - broke further new ground by listing its number in the telephone directory. The Agency said that the new phone line was there for the convenience of terrorists and other miscreants who wanted to inform on their colleagues. (Ag. France Press, 10 Mar98) (RJ)

SECTION III . AFIO EVENTS & ANNOUNCEMENTS

A comprehensive review of National intelligence and counterintelligence priorities and issues, including Congressional perspectives and Executive Agency speakers (CIA, DIA, FBI etc) covering assessments on Russia and China, CBW non-proliferation intelligence, nuclear arms control, and counterintelligence issues in international crime and narcotics networks, economic espionage and counter-espionage.

LIMIT one hundred (100) seats: $99 for AFIO members, $129 for others. TO ASSURE A SEAT, send in your name, tel. number and check to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Avenue, McLean, Va 22101.

This is the seventh year for this always outstanding international conference on open source intelligence issues, featuring WORLD CLASS speakers on open sources and methods. Different, interesting, stimulating, international and highly recommended!
Has breakout sessions on regional sources, pricing, source validation, and the role of the Internet in supporting intelligence and CI missions. International networking for those who create, use and buy open source intelligence. Free attendance at affiliated symposia.
On 21 May 98, the day following the conference, there is a classified SCI level session on OSINT, obviously for USG personnel only.

For complete agenda and speakers, EMAIL oss98@oss.net and VISIT www.oss.net and click on Events. CALL 703 242 1700 or FAX 242-1711. COST $475 for government, self-employed and academics; Industry $675.

Includes talent scouts from within and outside the Government, and fifty exhibits. Full day of Intelligence Community speakers, including heads of agencies, industry, job placement experts, authors. Job seekers, take one page resume along.
REGISTRATION for exposition, seminars and networking reception - - $35, -with further discounts for Government employees.Sign up now! Send mail to info@pcic.net or CALL 703 379-8400

featuring former DDCI and acting DCI ADMIRAL (ret) WILLIAM STUDEMAN, giving his perspectives on past and current Intelligence issues, and Professor JAMES CHANDLER, providing an insider's view on the process and issues involved in the drafting and passing of the Corporate Espionage Law of 1997.
Register Now! $26 for members, $29 non-members

IN MEMORIAM

- Professor Sir Harry Hinsley, eminent official historian of wartime British intelligence, died 16 February 1998, aged 79.

The following AFIO members made their final farewell. May they, who shared our mission and dedication, rest in peace.

-Ms Harriet Borland, retired CIA, AFIO life member since 1981, died 20 Nov. 1997
-Miss Majorie Grostephan, retired CIA, AFIO member since 1978, died 13 March 1998
-LTC Melville Keiser, retired USMC AFIO member since 1976, died 10 March 98
-CDR Aslexander Lennox, retired USN, AFIO member since 1976, died 10 Jan 98
-Ms Lucille Muntz, retired NSA, AFIO member since 1983, died 16 March 98
-Mrs Nancy Fife Prior, former OSS, AFIO member since 1989, died March 1998
-Mr. Charles Stiles, retired NSA, AFIO member since 1978, died 19 January 98

BOOKS

-SECURITY STUDIES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY, edited by Richard Shultz et.al. Provides instructors and curriculum planners with model curricula and model courses that reflect the changes in the contemporary international environment. It includes a model course on "Intelligence and Security" by professor Roy Godson with contributions by professors Bradford Westerfield and Ernest May. (Brassey's Inc., January 1998, ISBN 1-57488-066-7 $49.95. Contact Louise Muniak (703) 260 0602 ext 10).

- APOLLO'S WARRIORS: Air Force Special Operations during the Cold War, by Col Michael Haas, USAF (ret), Published Air University Press, 1997, and for sale GPO Stock# 008-070-00726-6 (GPO tel 202 512 1800). I was in programs covered by the book during the Korean and Vietnam wars, and highly recommend it.

SERVICES:

- NEW COUNTRY-WIDE AFIO VIRTUAL CHAPTER being formed for beginning and mid-career active and former professionals - Contact David Bedenbaugh, who also is a financial advisor who focuses on retirement planning. Call 301 897 5999.

- AFIO OFFERS NEW SERVICE, THE AFIO Z-GRAM, a DAILY quick-scan, useful overview of news from the World press gleaned from the internet along with tips for internet researchers on intelligence-related topics. Exceptionally well done, praised by people in industry and high ranking officers, such as LGEN (ret) J. Clapper, former Director of DIA. Subscription for DAILY service only $98, of which $40 is tax-deductible donation. Mail check made out to AFIO and name/address/email to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303a, McLean Va 22101-4533.

The CIA OUTREACH PROGRAM has distributed its quarterly information package, including the following material: (1) Okhrana: the Paris Operations of the Russian Imperial Police, CIA 1997; (2) Report of Investigation - Overview: Allegations of Connections Between the CIA and the Contras in Cocaine Trafficking in the US, Vol I - the California Story (CIA Inspector General); (3) CIA Support to the US Military During the Persian Gulf War, 16 June 1997; (4) China's Economy in 1995-1997, December 1997; (5) Handbook of International Economic Statistics, Directorate of Intelligence, Sept.97; (6) Humanitarian Challenges in Sub-Saharan Africa, foldout map. For information concerning these materials, call the Outreach Program at 703 482 1044.

- For AFIO members in NY area, free four-session seminar series on serious internet usage for business intelligence and investigations, by author (see BOOKS) David Vine, NYPL Science, Industry and Business Library, 34th and Madison, 2-3:30 pm April 6, 13,20,27. Contact bizintel@home.com.

POSITIONS AVAILABLE:

- Global Business Access, Ltd, is an international consulting firm composed of over 140 former US ambassadors, senior diplomats and intelligence officers, providing expertise on foreign countries. Global provides briefings, consulting, introductions, due diligence, training, security, investment services and legal support. Global seeks business associates. Visit www.globalbusinessltd.com or call 202 466-6249. Please let AFIO know if you succeed!
- Corporation is looking for a former Artillery Battalion Cmdr (7plus years experience, AC College grad), to train Direct Support and Reinforcing commanders and staffs during LTP rotations. Qualified individuals contact afio@afio.com.

POSITIONS WANTED

-Professor looking for visiting college instructor opportunity this Fall teaching US foreign policy and security. Contact gclark@cmcl.coloradomtn.edu.