AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue
2 June 1998
AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to
enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new
members. We need new members!
WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations
of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members.
WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of
the WIN Editor.
NOTE: Roy Jonkers is off on his annual walking vacation in Europe
and I will (try to) carry on with WINs until his return. --John
NO E-MAIL AFIO PLEASE!!! While Roy Jonkers is on vacation, AFIO
will not be reading e-mail. If you need to communicate with the AFIO
office, call them at (703) 790-0320)
TO AFIO MEMBERS - Every member recruit just ONE new member so we
can carry on the mission!
Professors in the AEP program - if you are not already an AFIO
member, associate member or subscriber, we encourage you to sign up.
It will enable the program to continue.
AFIO SPECIAL Luncheon - 21 July 1998 - 12:30 - 2:30
at Fort George G.Meade, Maryland, O'Club.
Tour of National Cryptologic Museum follows.
Send check for $22 (AFIO members and guests), or $29 (others) to
SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES &
CIA ENVIRONMENTAL CENTER. Terry Flannery, an environmental
analyst with CIA, recently spoke to a humanitarian aid conference in
California. He told the audience that many looming international
threats are environmental in nature, and because they are becoming
important to US foreign policy are being tracked by the US
Intelligence Community. Examples he gave included the forest fires
raging (again) in Indonesia, population problems in the third world,
gross pollution problems in China and elsewhere, and the Kyoto
Accords on global warming. VOA, 14May98, http://www.fas.org/irp/news/1998/05/980515-cia.htm
PAKISTAN FEARED INDIAN and/or ISRAELI STRIKE. Last week on the
eve its nuclear tests, Pakistan and possibly China as well feared
that Indian and Israeli warplanes were about to strike Pakistan's
nuclear infrastructure. US intelligence detected no such attack
preparations and that was shared with Pakistan in order to calm that
country's fears. In the aftermath of the war scare, US intelligence
analysts are unsure if Pakistan really thought they were about to be
attacked or whether they just "cooked up" the threat in order to
deflect criticism from their nuclear tests. Meanwhile, there seems
to be a discrepancy between some of Pakistan's claims about their
nuclear capability and what US intelligence believes to be true. For
one thing, Pakistan claims they detonated 5 nuclear devices on their
first test, but US seismograhpic monitors only detected one
detonation. Also, Pakistan claims it has weaponeered nuclear
warheads to fit on its latest ballistic missiles. US intelligence
analysts apparaently doubt that. Washington Times (Bill Gertz),
JERIMIAH COMMISSION REPORTS TODAY. The investigation into the
alleged "failure" of US intelligence to forecast the recent Indian
nuclear tests, which is headed by Admiral Jerimiah, former Deputy
CJCS, is due to report to Congress today. We'll probably hear much
more about that episode in the next few days as the Report seeps into
ALBERT EINSTEIN. Recently discovered letters twritten by
physicist Albert Einstein suggest he had a romance during and after
WW2 with a woman thought to have been a Soviet spy. Apparently, the
woman's "mission" was to introduce Einstein to the Soviet Consul in
New York, which she did. Actually, Einstein's theoretical work at
the time had little to do with the practical detail of the US
Manhattan Project. The goal was probably to influence the prominent
physicist to think and speak favorably about the USSR. Washington
INTELLIGENCE FUNDING DEARTH. Spending on US intelligence, about
$27 billion a year, has been flat for a decade. Actully, because of
inflation, it has declined in "real terms" by about 30%. At the same
time, intelligence is being asked to report on more and more issues
and areas. Whereas the used to be one Soviet Union, there are now 15
independent states and all of them pose various politcal and economic
problems. And where there used to be one peaceful Yugoslovia, there
are now five countries wracked with war and with US troops deployed
there. Similarly, intelligence is being asked to report on drug
trafficking, environmental degredation, organized crime, illegal
immigration, Hutu vs Tutsi violence in Africa, international trade
shenanigans, and other problems that were not part of the old Cold
War mission. In short, intelligence is being asked to do more with
less -- much more with much less. And, frankly, it isn't working out
very well. Furthmore, the Clinton Administration does not seem to be
paying much attention to this matter. (Source: senior former
SECTION II - BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS & OTHER
"SISTERHOOD OF SPIES: The Women of the OSS," by AFIO member and
OSS veteran, Elizabeth McIntosh (Naval Inst Press, 1998). Ms
McIntosh's new book was reviewed by (novelist) Donald Westlake in the
5/31 NY Times. Westlake, who liked the book, more or less, lacks as
far as we know any qualifications in the areas of intelligence, OSS,
or World War II history. Watch for a much more thorough review in
the September issue of AFIO's "Intelligencer" newsletter by former
AFIO President John Waller who has written extensively about
intelligence operations in WW2 and who is himself a veteran of the
OSS and CIA.
WEB SITES. I have two favorite intelligence web sites. The first
is maintained by John Pike at the Federation of American Scientists,
second is at the Political Science Dept at Loyola College in
Maryland. Maintained there, I believe, by AFIO AEP professor, Kevin
WEB-BASED INTELLIGENCE BIBLIOGRAPHY. In the last issue, we
reported that Ransom Clark's bibliography would soon be available.
Well, it's now on-line and free. Ransom Clark a retired CIA officer
and AFIO Member, teaches at Muskingum College in Ohio. His work,
entitled "The Literature of Intelligence: A Bibliography of
Materials, with Essays, Reviews, and Comments," consists of over
7,000 entries, including books, monographs, and specialized journal
articles, organized in some 500 subject categories. <http://intellit.muskingum.edu/intellsite/index.html>
ON-LINE INTELLIGENCE DISCUSSION GROUP. I recommend a free on-line
intelligence discussion group that I've found very interesting and
useful. If you're interested, send an e-mail to: <Listserv@maelstrom.stjohns.edu>
In the body of your e-mail, put only and exactly: SUB
CLOAKS-AND-DAGGERS ( your first name ) ( your last name )
INTELLIGENCE JOB INFORMATION. There's a great new web page
devoted to intelligence job information. It's been put together by a
young man who is a college sophomore with a double major in math and
computer science and an ambition to be an intelligence officer.
Unable to find a good source of information on intelligence jobs, he
created a web page devoted to the subject. <www.intelstudents.org/>
GUARDRAIL. For more than you ever wanted to know about US Army
airborne SIGINT collectors: <http://www.jnpcs.com/dbuley/>
URL'S FOR FY 1999 INTELLIGENCE AUTHORIZATION BILL.
EDWARD SHIRLEY is the pseudonym of a former CIA Directorate of
Operations (DO) case officer (1985-1993) whose 1997 book, KNOW THINE
ENEMY, was critical of the CIA. Well, his cover story in the
February 1998 issue of THE ATLANTIC MONTHLY, "Can't Anyone Here Play
this Game?", is even more critical. The May issue of THE ATLANTIC
has two letters from other CIA DO officers who agree with Shirley.
Both the original article and the letters are available on-line.
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CONSPIRACY?
According to this site, the government of New Zealand is in cahoots
with the American NSA to eavesdrop on nearly everyone's phone,
e-mail, and fax communications. A lot of (doubtful and inflammatory)
details -- worth a look. http://www.dis.org/erehwon/echelon.html
SECTION III - BULLETIN BOARD
SECTION IV - MONTHLY "HEADS UP" LIST
Events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars.
NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that
should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney,
JUNE 1, Washington. AFIO Summer Luncheon. Morning speaker
(11am), Prof James Chandler, providing an insider's view on the
passing of the Corporate Espionage Law of 1997, plus luncheon speaker
former DDCI and acting DCI ADM (ret) William Studeman. $26 for AFIO
members and their invited guests - $29 for all others. (703)790-0320
JUNE 5, Washington. NMIA Awards Banquet, Ft Myer O'Club.
JUNE 15. Deadline for 1999 ISA paper and panel proposals. See
Feb 16-30, 1999 entry, below.
JUNE 25, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College
will host an academic conference at the DIAC building on Bolling AFB.
Contact LCDR Pete Clanton (202) 231-8538, fax (202) 231-2171, or
JUNE 26-27, Chicago. AFIO Midwest Chapter's 8th Intelligence
Seminar at Great Lakes Naval Station, Chicago. Contact Angelo
DiLiberti at (847) 931-4184, or Don Clark (630) 834-2032, or firstname.lastname@example.org.
JULY 10-11, Vermont. AFIO New England Chapter at the Bromley
Lodge with speaker Joseph Goulden of Accuracy in Media. Peggy Adler,
JULY 15-19, Washington, DC. Marine Corps Intelligence Association
Convention. Includes a ceremony at the Iwo Jima Memorial, trips to
USMC intelligence facility at Quantico and the USMC Museum at the
Navy Yard, and the evening retreat ceremony at the Marine Corps
barracks. Distinguished speakers include the DCI, the Marine Corps
Commandant, Gen Charles Krulak, CINCSOUTH, and former DIA director
LtGen Clapper. Contact MGySgt John Asbery, USMC (Ret), Tel: (703)
JULY 21, Washington. AFIO Special Luncheon, Ft Meade, Maryland,
O'Club, 12:30 - 2:30, with presentation by Jack Ingram (Curator &
Historian, National Cryptologic Museum), and special TOUR of the
Museum. Send check for $22 (AFIO members and guests), or $29 (others)
to AFIO. (703) 790-0320
SEPTEMBER 7-10, Moscow Spy Tour. This event is being organized by
Dan Mulvenna, a retired Royal Canadian Mounted Police
counterintelligence officer and an Associate Member of AFIO. It
includes visits to espionage related sites and meetings with current
and former senior SVR/KGB officers. Repeat of a similar and
successful tour in June 1997. Cost is $1500, not including airfare
or hotel. email@example.com
SEPTEMBER 8-11, Washington. InfoWar 98 Conference. Voice:
813.393.6600; Fax: 813.393.6361; firstname.lastname@example.org
SEPTEMBER 14, Washington (Ft Myer O'Club). AFIO Fall Luncheon.
Morning speaker (11am) plus luncheon speaker. $24.00 for AFIO
members and their guests - $29.00 for all others. (703)790-0320 /
SEPTEMBER 17, Washington. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon at
Bolling EM Club. Pre-luncheon speaker 1030. (703) 379-7177
OCTOBER 16-17, Borden, Ontario. AFIO Midwest Chapter's Autumn
98 function, a working tour of the Canadian Military
Intelligence and Security Camp. Angelo DiLiberti, (847) 931-4184, or
Don Clark, (630) 834-2032, email@example.com.
OCTOBER 23-24, Kennebunkport, Maine. Meeting of AFIO New England
Chapter at the Nonatum Resort with speaker Peter Huchthausen, former
Naval Attaché in Moscow and author of Hostile Waters. Peggy
Adler, (860) 669-7706
OCTOBER 28-30, Brno, Czech Republic. AFCEA Europe Symposium and
TechNet Exposition on "The New NATO." tel: 32(2)705 2731 /
firstname.lastname@example.org / http://www.afcea.org
OCTOBER 30 - Nov 1, Charlotte, NC. ISA/South conference at the
Hilton at University Place in Charlotte, North Carolina. (704)
547-4536; fax (704) 547-3497; e-mail HICHERNO@email.uncc.edu.
NOVEMBER 4, Washington. NMIA/OPS Counterintelligence (CI 98)
Symposium, Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642
NOVEMBER 5, Washington. NMIA Defense Intelligence Status (DIS
98), Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642
NOVEMBER 19-21, Miami. AFIO National Convention & Symposium,
Miami Convention Center. (703) 790-0320
DECEMBER 7, AFIO Winter Luncheon. Morning speaker (11am) plus
luncheon speaker. $24.00 for AFIO members and their invited guests -
$29.00 for all others. (703)790-0320 https://www.afio.com.
NEXT YEAR: 1999
FEBRUARY 16-20, 1999, Washington. ISA Convention. (See Fred
Wettering's report, above.) Panel or paper proposals due June 15 to
the 1999 Program Chair, Joe D. Hagan, West Virginia University, (304)
293-3811, (304) 293-8644 (fax), Email: email@example.com.
In addition, notify Jim Wirtz, the Intelligence Program Chair at
the Dept of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School,
MARCH 21-25, 1999. Washington. National
OPSEC Conference. Call 301.840.6770 or for an automated fax dial
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