AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 28
27 July 1998
AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to
enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new
members. We need new members!
WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations
of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members.
WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of
the WIN Editor.
See the AFIO Homepage <www.afio.com> for back
EVERY MEMBER GET A MEMBER - keep AFIO strong!
AFIO LUNCHEON 14 SEPTEMBER
Fort Myers Officers Club, Arlington Virginia
Speakers: Major General (USA ret) Jack Singlaub (Operation
and Dr. Hamilton Merritt, Nobel Prize Nominee (Tragic Mountains,
Luncheon Chairman: Mr. Theodore Shackley
SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS
"B TEAM" REPORT CHALLENGES CIA ASSESSMENT OF MISSILE
THREAT. On July 15, a Congressionally mandated commission,
sometimes called the "Rumsfeld Commission," issued a report that
said, in effect, that the ballistic missile threat to the continental
US was greater that contained in a controversial 1995 NIE that said
the threat was still 10-20 years away as well as a March 1998 NIE
update that says no threat until at least the year 2010. This is a
contentious issue, of course, because Congressional Republicans (and
some Democrats) have long been urging rapid deployment of a "star
wars" type National Missile Defense, or NMD. The Clinton
Administration, however, has opted to go slow -- research now,
deployment some years hence if and when a threat to CONUS develops.
The US Intelligence Community's 1995 NIE said the threat was a decade
or more in the future and there would be many years warning before
any hostile or rogue nation had missiles capable of striking the US.
That NIE supported the Clinton Administration's go slow policy and
was used to justify the President's veto of a provision in the FY1996
Defense Authorization legislation calling for NMD deployment -- which
outraged the GOP and brought charges of "politicization of
intelligence." Robert Gates, former DCI, was asked to investigate
and he subsequently issued a report that said that while the NIE's
conclusions were questionable in his view, there was no evidence of
politicization. Congress also established the "Commission to Assess
the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States" in what amounts to
a B TEAM approach of "competitive analysis" -- reminiscent of the
famous 1976 B Team report by outside analysts that found the CIA's
view of the Soviet threat was much too benign. This July 15, 1998
Commission Report which also criticizes CIA and its 1995 and 1998
estimates, supporting those who argue for early deployment of BMD --
pleasing Congressional Republicans. The following are quotes from
- "The threat to the U.S. posed by these emerging capabilities is
broader, more mature and evolving more rapidly than has been reported
in estimates and reports by the Intelligence Community."
- "The Intelligence Community's ability to provide timely and
accurate estimates of ballistic missile threats to the U.S. is
eroding. This erosion has roots both within and beyond the
intelligence process itself. The Community's capabilities in this
area need to be strengthened in terms of both resources and
- "The warning times the U.S. can expect of new, threatening
ballistic missile deployments are being reduced. Under some plausible
scenarios -- including re-basing or transfer of operational missiles,
sea- and air-launch options, shortened development programs that
might include testing in a third country, or some combination of
these -- the U.S. might well have little or no warning before
operational deployment." The Report itself and a number of related
documents are available at John Pike's FAS website, listed below:
Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to
the United States
Voice of America 15 July 1998
Opening Statement of Rep Floyd Spence, Chairman of House National
Statement by SecDef William Cohen
Letter from DCI George Tenet to Congress regarding the Rumsfeld
"NMD Still a Bad Idea," Council for a Livable World
Statement by Senator Trent Lott, Majority Leader
OPERATION FOXLEY -- SOE PLAN TO ASSASSINATE HITLER. The
British government has just released a large number of World War II
documents related to covert activities in Europe by the SOE, the
Special Operations Executive. Among the many revelations is
"Operation Foxley," a 1944 plan to assassinate Hitler. It was
eventually scrapped because, as the Washington Post puts it, "the
blundering Fuehrer was more valuable to the Allies alive than dead."
WP, 24Jul98. The British government site, below, which carries these
documents as well as others, is well worth a bookmark on everyone's
list of web favorites.
US CANCELS PLANS TO CAPTURE SERB WAR CRIMINALS. The New
York Times (Tim Weiner) carried a story this Sunday (Jul26) saying
that plans to capture the two highest ranking of Bosnia's indicted
war criminals has been shelved. The two are former Republika Srpska
President, Radovan Karadzic, who is still in Bosnia, and his former
military chief, Gen. Ratko Mladic, who is believed to be in Belgrade.
According to the NY Times story, planning (code named Amber Star)
has been underway for over two years and more than $100 million
dollars has been spent on preparations for a special operation
"snatch" of Bosnia's most famous alleged war criminals. The British
were eager to go ahead, the Times reports, while the French were
reluctant. Meanwhile, the US policy machinery has been locked in
debate on the issue. In a familiar post Cold War pattern that has
held true in every case of proposed military action since (and
including) the Gulf War, the State Department and Clinton NSC staff
has argued for more aggressive action while the Pentagon has been
more reluctant, or "dovish." Apparently that held true regarding
this plan to snatch Karadzic and Mladic -- the State Department and
especially Richard Holbrooke (architect of the Dayton Accords and now
Ambassador designee to the UN) pressed for arrest of the high level
war criminals. The Pentagon, meanwhile was reluctant, arguing that
such a snatch operation would likely involve the killing of many
Serbian security guards -- hundreds it was argued -- as well as GI
casualties and would probably reignite the Bosnian civil war with the
US as a participant. The Pentagon's argument finally prevailed,
according to the NY Times, and the plan has been called off. (NY
Times, 26Jul98.) http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/072698us-bosnia.html
LARGER COVERT ACTION AGAINST SADDAM. According to the Wall
Street Journal (Jul24), the Clinton Administration wants
congressional approval to mount a much larger covert action against
Saddam Hussein -- one that might involve military action. http://www.desnews.com:80/wir/wk0n9v96.htm
RUSSIANS ARE BACK IN AFGHANISTAN. According to a July 27
NY Times story, Russia has a major covert action operation ongoing in
Afghanistan where they are supplying anti-Taliban rebels with arms
and equipment including armor, artillery and jet fighters.
Ironically, these are some of the same rebels who, a decade ago, were
the recipients of CIA support in their fight against the Soviets.
GROAT PLEADS GUILTY TO EXTORTION (but not espionage).
Douglas Groat, a CIA officer from 1980 to 1996 was arrested earlier
this year and charged with espionage. On July 27th, he pleaded
guilty to trying to extort a million dollars from the Agency --
thereby avoiding a trail for espionage. He will probably spend 5
years or less in prison. Groat was apparently a very disgruntled
ex-employee, who worked for for a clandestine CIA organization whose
function it was to obtain foreign communication codes, probably by
breaking into overseas embassies to copy or steal the code books.
The CIA suspended Groat in 1993 and fired him three years later.
Groat then, it's believed, sold his knowledge about CIA code breaking
methods to the foreign governments he once targeted. And in 1996 and
1997 he sent a series of letters to the Agency demanding $1 million
and said that in return he would not engage in "any activities which
may hinder present or future intelligence gathering efforts.'' In
another letter, he told the CIA of his plan to "discuss offering my
knowledge and services, as a paid consultant, to select foreign
governments.'' While the guilty plea avoids a long prison term for
Groat, it also avoids revelation in open court of US SIGINT sources
and methods and, perhaps more important, avoids possible disclosure
of intelligence collection efforts against friendly froeign
governments and allies. http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980727/V000848-072798-idx.html
CRYPTOLOGIC MUSEUM & AFIO LUNCHEON. AFIO's July 21st
luncheon at the Ft Meade O'Club and subsequent group tour of NSA's
National Cryptologic Museum was a great success that drew one of our
biggest AFIO luncheon crowds ever. Although it's located only about
25 miles from my home and has been operating since 1994, I had never
visit the Cryptologic Museum. That was a mistake now rectified. The
museum is open to the public and explains SIGINT and its role in
American history and honors the individual heroes of SIGINT -- people
who "broke the codes" or who paid the ultimate sacrifice when
aircraft were shot down on Cold War missions. The emphasis, as you
might imagine, is on World War II -- breaking the German and Japanese
codes and exploiting the "take" from those cyptologic successes.
There is also a good deal of Venona information -- intercepts of KGB
transmissions from the US during the 1940's and the revelations
therein about the atomic spies and others.
In addition, there are displays about SIGINT during the Cuban
Missile crisis of 1962 and the contributions of tactical SIGINT
during the Vietnam War. The Museum also has a table full of "give
away" pamphlets produced by NSA's Center for Cryptologic History that
I have found quite interesting. If you haven't been to the
Cryptologic Museum and you live in the Washington area, get yourself
out there. If you are from "outside the beltway," make a note to do
it on your next trip here. If you can't wait, you can see some of
the Museum's stuff as well as a map to the museum on the NSA web
The Museum is located at the intersection of Maryland Rt. 32 and the
Baltimore/Washington Parkway (Rt 295), near the National Security
Agency and BWI airport. (301) 688-5849
SECTION II - BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS & OTHER SOURCES
Stanislav Lunev with Ira Winkler, THROUGH THE EYES OF THE
ENEMY: THE AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF STANISLAV LUNEV, Regnery
Publishing, June 1998. This new (June 1998) book is making quite a
splash. Lunev is a GRU defector and Winkler is an AFIO member,
former NSA employee and author of the 1997 book, "Corporate Espionage
: What It Is, Why It Is Happening in Your Company." The charges in
the Lunev book are sensational to say the least. In effect, Lunev
says "the Russians are still coming."
CONGRESS will be holding hearings next week on the matter (see
August 4th entry in Section IV, below). The paragraph below is from
the publisher's description of the book's contents: "Stanislav Lunev,
the highest-ranking GRU (Soviet military intelligence) officer ever
to defect shares his amazing story with the American public. Lunev
1.) How the Russian Mafia controls the Russian government, the
KGB, and the military.
2.) The existence of Russian suitcase-sized nuclear weapons on U.S.
3.) The existence and testing of seismic weapons.
4.) The KGB's possible use of American POW's to test the effects of
drugs on Americans.
5.) The GRU's plan for poisoning U.S. water supplies.
6.) Present Russian government spy tactics against the U.S.
7.) How Boris Yeltsin ordered the KGB to double its corporate,
government, and military espionage against the U.S.
8.) The practice of recruiting spies in Congress, in the military,
and from the editorial offices of leading American newspapers.
9.) Soviet assassination squads against American leaders.
10.) How U.S. corporations are unwittingly partnering with the
Russian Mafia -- and much more!!"
CLOAKS-AND-DAGGERS is a free, on-line intelligence
discussion group that I previously mentioned and recommended in WIN
#21, 2June1998. I understand the group, with is moderated by Dr
Rudolf Kies, had a 45% plus up in membership after being mentioned in
that AFIO WIN. If you're interested, send an e-mail to:
<Listserv@maelstrom.stjohns.edu> In the body of your e-mail on
the first and only line, put only and exactly: SUB CLOAKS-AND-DAGGERS
ANOTHER GREAT WEB PAGE. In WIN #21 I also recommended two
intelligence web sites. The first was the one maintained by John
Pike at the Federation of American Scientists, <http://www.fas.org/irp/>.
The second was at the Political Science Dept at Loyola College in
Maryland. Maintained there by AFIO AEP professor, Kevin Hula.
Well, here's another good site for intelligence. This one
is at the Lehman Library at Columbia University, maintained there by
Jerry Breeze, the Government Documents Librarian: http://www.columbia.edu/cu/libraries/indiv/dsc/intell.html
STILL ANOTHER WEB SITE. The Palmer School of Intelligence
and Counterintelligence, a California based organization that seems
to specialize primarily but not exclusively in business and law
enforcement related intelligence has a web site at: http://www.psyber.com/biz/palmer/
ARMY INTEL FOR THE 21st CENTURY - ANOTHER WEB PAGE. Army
intelligence has commissioned an "Intel XXI Study" to help guide its
development for the year 2010 and has put up a web page on the
ongoing study. http://220.127.116.11/intel_xxi/hall_wel.html
SECTION III BULLETIN BOARD -- MONTHLY "HEADS UP" LIST.
Lists events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence
scholars. NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12
months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John
AUGUST 4, Washington. The House National Security Committee will
be holding a 10am hearing based on the sensational new book, "Through
the Eyes of the Enemy," Regnery Publishing, 1998. The book was
written by Stanislav Lunev, a high ranking Russian military defector,
together with Ira Winkler, an AFIO member. In the book, Lunev
charges that, among things, Russia is still spying on the US, making
plans to assassinate US leaders in the event of hostilities and
targeting US installations for destruction by nuclear mines. Lunev
will be the principle witness at the hearings which will explore his
charges that Russia is up to no good.
AUGUST 20, Monterey, California, the Association of Old Crows
(AOC) annual symposium on "Aircraft Survivability".
SEPT 7-10, Moscow Spy Tour. This event is being organized by Dan
Mulvenna, a retired Royal Canadian Mounted Police counterintelligence
officer and an Associate Member of AFIO. It includes visits to
espionage related sites and meetings with current and former senior
SVR/KGB officers. Repeat of a similar and successful tour in June
1997. Cost is $1500, not including airfare or hotel.
SEPT 9-11, Washington. InfoWar 98 Conference. Voice:
813.393.6600; Fax: 813.393.6361; email@example.com
SEPT 11 - AFIO Northeast Florida Chapter will hold its first
organizational Dinner Meeting on Friday, 11 Sept at the Holiday Inn,
Palatka, at 5:00 pm. Contact Col Barney Barco (352) 475 2351, or
SEPT 14 - Washington. AFIO LUNCHEON, Fort Myers Officers Club,
Arlington Virginia 1030 - 1400. Speakers: Major General (USA ret)
Jack Singlaub (Operation Tailwind) and Dr. Hamilton Merritt, Nobel
Prize Nominee (Tragic Mountains, Lao-Hmong). Luncheon Chairman: Mr.
Theodore Shackley. Registration: AFIO members $26, Non-members $29.
Send check with name and address to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite
SEPT 14-16, Institute for International Research (IIR) is
organizing a "Tools and Techniques Forum - Competitive
SEPT 14-18, Minneapolis. Ross Engineering, a counter surveillance
firm, is giving its "Hands-on TSCM [Technical Surveillance
Counter-Measures] Training Course".
SEPT 15-17, Shrivenham, England. Royal Military College of
Science (RMCS) is organizing the "European Electronic Battlefield
SEPTEMBER 17, Washington. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon at
Bolling EM Club. Pre-luncheon speaker 1030. (703) 379-7177
SEPT 21-24, Syracuse, NY. Research Associates of Syracuse (RAS)
is holding a seminar and workshop on "ELINT Interception".
OCTOBER 16-17, Borden, Ontario. AFIO Midwest Chapter's Autumn
98 function, a working tour of the Canadian Military
Intelligence and Security Camp. Angelo DiLiberti, (847) 931-4184, or
Don Clark, (630) 834-2032, firstname.lastname@example.org.
OCTOBER 23, Washington. General Membership meeting of NIP, Naval
Intelligence Professionals, at ONI Headquarters, Suitland, MD, with
membership luncheon at the Bolling AFB NCO Club. Annual 1630
Dining-In for Naval intelligence officers that night at the Ft Myer O'Club.
OCTOBER 23-24, Kennebunkport, Maine. Meeting of AFIO New England
Chapter at the Nonatum Resort with speaker Peter Huchthausen, former
Naval Attaché in Moscow and author of Hostile Waters. Peggy
Adler, (860) 669-7706
OCTOBER 28-30, Melbourne. Australian Institute of Professional
Intelligence Officers (AIPIO) to Conduct Intel'98, Meeting the
Challenge: The Intelligence Advantage - Intelligence Solutions to
Real World Problems.
OCTOBER 28-30, Brno, Czech Republic. AFCEA Europe Symposium and
TechNet Exposition on "The New NATO." tel: 32(2)705 2731 /
OCTOBER 30 - Nov 1, Charlotte, NC. ISA/South conference at the
Hilton at University Place in Charlotte, North Carolina. (704)
547-4536; fax (704) 547-3497; e-mail HICHERNO@email.uncc.edu.
NOVEMBER 4, Washington. NMIA/OPS Counterintelligence (CI 98)
Symposium, Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642
NOVEMBER 5, Washington. NMIA Defense Intelligence Status (DIS
98), Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642
NOVEMBER 12-14, Washington. AFIO National Symposium and
Convention, Fairview Park Marriot, Fairfax County, Virginia.
CHALLENGES FOR INTELLIGENCE: THE FUTURE IS NOW. Registration
information will be disseminated shortly. (703) 790-0320.
DEC 7, AFIO Winter Luncheon. Morning speaker (11am) plus luncheon
speaker. (703)790-0320, https://www.afio.com.
Return to AFIO Home Page