AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 28

AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new members. We need new members!

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members. WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of the WIN Editor.

See the AFIO Homepage <www.afio.com> for back issues.

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SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS

"B TEAM" REPORT CHALLENGES CIA ASSESSMENT OF MISSILE THREAT. On July 15, a Congressionally mandated commission, sometimes called the "Rumsfeld Commission," issued a report that said, in effect, that the ballistic missile threat to the continental US was greater that contained in a controversial 1995 NIE that said the threat was still 10-20 years away as well as a March 1998 NIE update that says no threat until at least the year 2010. This is a contentious issue, of course, because Congressional Republicans (and some Democrats) have long been urging rapid deployment of a "star wars" type National Missile Defense, or NMD. The Clinton Administration, however, has opted to go slow -- research now, deployment some years hence if and when a threat to CONUS develops. The US Intelligence Community's 1995 NIE said the threat was a decade or more in the future and there would be many years warning before any hostile or rogue nation had missiles capable of striking the US. That NIE supported the Clinton Administration's go slow policy and was used to justify the President's veto of a provision in the FY1996 Defense Authorization legislation calling for NMD deployment -- which outraged the GOP and brought charges of "politicization of intelligence." Robert Gates, former DCI, was asked to investigate and he subsequently issued a report that said that while the NIE's conclusions were questionable in his view, there was no evidence of politicization. Congress also established the "Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States" in what amounts to a B TEAM approach of "competitive analysis" -- reminiscent of the famous 1976 B Team report by outside analysts that found the CIA's view of the Soviet threat was much too benign. This July 15, 1998 Commission Report which also criticizes CIA and its 1995 and 1998 estimates, supporting those who argue for early deployment of BMD -- pleasing Congressional Republicans. The following are quotes from its Executive

Summary:

- "The threat to the U.S. posed by these emerging capabilities is broader, more mature and evolving more rapidly than has been reported in estimates and reports by the Intelligence Community."

- "The Intelligence Community's ability to provide timely and accurate estimates of ballistic missile threats to the U.S. is eroding. This erosion has roots both within and beyond the intelligence process itself. The Community's capabilities in this area need to be strengthened in terms of both resources and methodology."

- "The warning times the U.S. can expect of new, threatening ballistic missile deployments are being reduced. Under some plausible scenarios -- including re-basing or transfer of operational missiles, sea- and air-launch options, shortened development programs that might include testing in a third country, or some combination of these -- the U.S. might well have little or no warning before operational deployment." The Report itself and a number of related documents are available at John Pike's FAS website, listed below:

Report of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/bm-threat.htm

Voice of America 15 July 1998
http://www.fas.org/irp/news/1998/07/980715-threat.htm

Opening Statement of Rep Floyd Spence, Chairman of House National Security Committee
http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/1998_hr/980716-spence.htm

Statement by SecDef William Cohen
http://www.fas.org/irp/news/1998/07/b07151998_bt368-98.html

Letter from DCI George Tenet to Congress regarding the Rumsfeld Report
http://www.fas.org/irp/cia/news/pr071598.html

"NMD Still a Bad Idea," Council for a Livable World
http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/news98/980715-clw.htm

Statement by Senator Trent Lott, Majority Leader
http://www.security-policy.org/papers/1998/98-D133.html

OPERATION FOXLEY -- SOE PLAN TO ASSASSINATE HITLER. The British government has just released a large number of World War II documents related to covert activities in Europe by the SOE, the Special Operations Executive. Among the many revelations is "Operation Foxley," a 1944 plan to assassinate Hitler. It was eventually scrapped because, as the Washington Post puts it, "the blundering Fuehrer was more valuable to the Allies alive than dead." WP, 24Jul98. The British government site, below, which carries these documents as well as others, is well worth a bookmark on everyone's list of web favorites.
http://www.pro.gov.uk/releases/soe-europe.htm
http://news.bbc.co.uk:80/hi/english/uk/newsid_137000/137570.stm

US CANCELS PLANS TO CAPTURE SERB WAR CRIMINALS. The New York Times (Tim Weiner) carried a story this Sunday (Jul26) saying that plans to capture the two highest ranking of Bosnia's indicted war criminals has been shelved. The two are former Republika Srpska President, Radovan Karadzic, who is still in Bosnia, and his former military chief, Gen. Ratko Mladic, who is believed to be in Belgrade. According to the NY Times story, planning (code named Amber Star) has been underway for over two years and more than $100 million dollars has been spent on preparations for a special operation "snatch" of Bosnia's most famous alleged war criminals. The British were eager to go ahead, the Times reports, while the French were reluctant. Meanwhile, the US policy machinery has been locked in debate on the issue. In a familiar post Cold War pattern that has held true in every case of proposed military action since (and including) the Gulf War, the State Department and Clinton NSC staff has argued for more aggressive action while the Pentagon has been more reluctant, or "dovish." Apparently that held true regarding this plan to snatch Karadzic and Mladic -- the State Department and especially Richard Holbrooke (architect of the Dayton Accords and now Ambassador designee to the UN) pressed for arrest of the high level war criminals. The Pentagon, meanwhile was reluctant, arguing that such a snatch operation would likely involve the killing of many Serbian security guards -- hundreds it was argued -- as well as GI casualties and would probably reignite the Bosnian civil war with the US as a participant. The Pentagon's argument finally prevailed, according to the NY Times, and the plan has been called off. (NY Times, 26Jul98.) http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/072698us-bosnia.html

LARGER COVERT ACTION AGAINST SADDAM. According to the Wall Street Journal (Jul24), the Clinton Administration wants congressional approval to mount a much larger covert action against Saddam Hussein -- one that might involve military action. http://www.desnews.com:80/wir/wk0n9v96.htm

RUSSIANS ARE BACK IN AFGHANISTAN. According to a July 27 NY Times story, Russia has a major covert action operation ongoing in Afghanistan where they are supplying anti-Taliban rebels with arms and equipment including armor, artillery and jet fighters. Ironically, these are some of the same rebels who, a decade ago, were the recipients of CIA support in their fight against the Soviets. http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/072798afghanistan-russia.html

GROAT PLEADS GUILTY TO EXTORTION (but not espionage). Douglas Groat, a CIA officer from 1980 to 1996 was arrested earlier this year and charged with espionage. On July 27th, he pleaded guilty to trying to extort a million dollars from the Agency -- thereby avoiding a trail for espionage. He will probably spend 5 years or less in prison. Groat was apparently a very disgruntled ex-employee, who worked for for a clandestine CIA organization whose function it was to obtain foreign communication codes, probably by breaking into overseas embassies to copy or steal the code books. The CIA suspended Groat in 1993 and fired him three years later. Groat then, it's believed, sold his knowledge about CIA code breaking methods to the foreign governments he once targeted. And in 1996 and 1997 he sent a series of letters to the Agency demanding $1 million and said that in return he would not engage in "any activities which may hinder present or future intelligence gathering efforts.'' In another letter, he told the CIA of his plan to "discuss offering my knowledge and services, as a paid consultant, to select foreign governments.'' While the guilty plea avoids a long prison term for Groat, it also avoids revelation in open court of US SIGINT sources and methods and, perhaps more important, avoids possible disclosure of intelligence collection efforts against friendly froeign governments and allies. http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WAPO/19980727/V000848-072798-idx.html

CRYPTOLOGIC MUSEUM & AFIO LUNCHEON. AFIO's July 21st luncheon at the Ft Meade O'Club and subsequent group tour of NSA's National Cryptologic Museum was a great success that drew one of our biggest AFIO luncheon crowds ever. Although it's located only about 25 miles from my home and has been operating since 1994, I had never visit the Cryptologic Museum. That was a mistake now rectified. The museum is open to the public and explains SIGINT and its role in American history and honors the individual heroes of SIGINT -- people who "broke the codes" or who paid the ultimate sacrifice when aircraft were shot down on Cold War missions. The emphasis, as you might imagine, is on World War II -- breaking the German and Japanese codes and exploiting the "take" from those cyptologic successes. There is also a good deal of Venona information -- intercepts of KGB transmissions from the US during the 1940's and the revelations therein about the atomic spies and others.

In addition, there are displays about SIGINT during the Cuban Missile crisis of 1962 and the contributions of tactical SIGINT during the Vietnam War. The Museum also has a table full of "give away" pamphlets produced by NSA's Center for Cryptologic History that I have found quite interesting. If you haven't been to the Cryptologic Museum and you live in the Washington area, get yourself out there. If you are from "outside the beltway," make a note to do it on your next trip here. If you can't wait, you can see some of the Museum's stuff as well as a map to the museum on the NSA web page, http://www.nsa.gov:8080/. The Museum is located at the intersection of Maryland Rt. 32 and the Baltimore/Washington Parkway (Rt 295), near the National Security Agency and BWI airport. (301) 688-5849

SECTION II - BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS & OTHER SOURCES

Stanislav Lunev with Ira Winkler, THROUGH THE EYES OF THE ENEMY: THE AUTOBIOGRAPHY OF STANISLAV LUNEV, Regnery Publishing, June 1998. This new (June 1998) book is making quite a splash. Lunev is a GRU defector and Winkler is an AFIO member, former NSA employee and author of the 1997 book, "Corporate Espionage : What It Is, Why It Is Happening in Your Company." The charges in the Lunev book are sensational to say the least. In effect, Lunev says "the Russians are still coming."

CONGRESS will be holding hearings next week on the matter (see August 4th entry in Section IV, below). The paragraph below is from the publisher's description of the book's contents: "Stanislav Lunev, the highest-ranking GRU (Soviet military intelligence) officer ever to defect shares his amazing story with the American public. Lunev reveals:

1.) How the Russian Mafia controls the Russian government, the KGB, and the military.
2.) The existence of Russian suitcase-sized nuclear weapons on U.S. soil.
3.) The existence and testing of seismic weapons.
4.) The KGB's possible use of American POW's to test the effects of drugs on Americans.
5.) The GRU's plan for poisoning U.S. water supplies.
6.) Present Russian government spy tactics against the U.S.
7.) How Boris Yeltsin ordered the KGB to double its corporate, government, and military espionage against the U.S.
8.) The practice of recruiting spies in Congress, in the military, and from the editorial offices of leading American newspapers.
9.) Soviet assassination squads against American leaders.
10.) How U.S. corporations are unwittingly partnering with the Russian Mafia -- and much more!!"

CLOAKS-AND-DAGGERS is a free, on-line intelligence discussion group that I previously mentioned and recommended in WIN #21, 2June1998. I understand the group, with is moderated by Dr Rudolf Kies, had a 45% plus up in membership after being mentioned in that AFIO WIN. If you're interested, send an e-mail to: <Listserv@maelstrom.stjohns.edu> In the body of your e-mail on the first and only line, put only and exactly: SUB CLOAKS-AND-DAGGERS yourfirstname yourlastname

ANOTHER GREAT WEB PAGE. In WIN #21 I also recommended two intelligence web sites. The first was the one maintained by John Pike at the Federation of American Scientists, <http://www.fas.org/irp/>. The second was at the Political Science Dept at Loyola College in Maryland. Maintained there by AFIO AEP professor, Kevin Hula. <http://www.loyola.edu/dept/politics/intel.html>

Well, here's another good site for intelligence. This one is at the Lehman Library at Columbia University, maintained there by Jerry Breeze, the Government Documents Librarian: http://www.columbia.edu/cu/libraries/indiv/dsc/intell.html

STILL ANOTHER WEB SITE. The Palmer School of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, a California based organization that seems to specialize primarily but not exclusively in business and law enforcement related intelligence has a web site at: http://www.psyber.com/biz/palmer/

ARMY INTEL FOR THE 21st CENTURY - ANOTHER WEB PAGE. Army intelligence has commissioned an "Intel XXI Study" to help guide its development for the year 2010 and has put up a web page on the ongoing study. http://134.11.140.9/intel_xxi/hall_wel.html

SECTION III BULLETIN BOARD -- MONTHLY "HEADS UP" LIST.

Lists events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars. NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, <jdmac@erols.com>

AUGUST 1998

AUGUST 4, Washington. The House National Security Committee will be holding a 10am hearing based on the sensational new book, "Through the Eyes of the Enemy," Regnery Publishing, 1998. The book was written by Stanislav Lunev, a high ranking Russian military defector, together with Ira Winkler, an AFIO member. In the book, Lunev charges that, among things, Russia is still spying on the US, making plans to assassinate US leaders in the event of hostilities and targeting US installations for destruction by nuclear mines. Lunev will be the principle witness at the hearings which will explore his charges that Russia is up to no good.

AUGUST 20, Monterey, California, the Association of Old Crows (AOC) annual symposium on "Aircraft Survivability". http://www.aochq.org/

SEPTEMBER 1998

SEPT 7-10, Moscow Spy Tour. This event is being organized by Dan Mulvenna, a retired Royal Canadian Mounted Police counterintelligence officer and an Associate Member of AFIO. It includes visits to espionage related sites and meetings with current and former senior SVR/KGB officers. Repeat of a similar and successful tour in June 1997. Cost is $1500, not including airfare or hotel. djmulv@erols.com

SEPT 9-11, Washington. InfoWar Œ98 Conference. Voice: 813.393.6600; Fax: 813.393.6361; infowar@infowar.com

SEPT 11 - AFIO Northeast Florida Chapter will hold its first organizational Dinner Meeting on Friday, 11 Sept at the Holiday Inn, Palatka, at 5:00 pm. Contact Col Barney Barco (352) 475 2351, or email <bmbarco@juno.com.

SEPT 14 - Washington. AFIO LUNCHEON, Fort Myers Officers Club, Arlington Virginia 1030 - 1400. Speakers: Major General (USA ret) Jack Singlaub (Operation Tailwind) and Dr. Hamilton Merritt, Nobel Prize Nominee (Tragic Mountains, Lao-Hmong). Luncheon Chairman: Mr. Theodore Shackley. Registration: AFIO members $26, Non-members $29. Send check with name and address to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303A.

SEPT 14-16, Institute for International Research (IIR) is organizing a "Tools and Techniques Forum - Competitive Intelligence".

SEPT 14-18, Minneapolis. Ross Engineering, a counter surveillance firm, is giving its "Hands-on TSCM [Technical Surveillance Counter-Measures] Training Course".

SEPT 15-17, Shrivenham, England. Royal Military College of Science (RMCS) is organizing the "European Electronic Battlefield Symposium".

SEPTEMBER 17, Washington. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon at Bolling EM Club. Pre-luncheon speaker 1030. (703) 379-7177

SEPT 21-24, Syracuse, NY. Research Associates of Syracuse (RAS) is holding a seminar and workshop on "ELINT Interception".

OCTOBER 1998:

OCTOBER 16-17, Borden, Ontario. AFIO Midwest Chapter's Autumn Œ98 function, a working tour of the Canadian Military Intelligence and Security Camp. Angelo DiLiberti, (847) 931-4184, or Don Clark, (630) 834-2032, diaboliq@home.com.

OCTOBER 23, Washington. General Membership meeting of NIP, Naval Intelligence Professionals, at ONI Headquarters, Suitland, MD, with membership luncheon at the Bolling AFB NCO Club. Annual 1630 Dining-In for Naval intelligence officers that night at the Ft Myer O'Club.

OCTOBER 23-24, Kennebunkport, Maine. Meeting of AFIO New England Chapter at the Nonatum Resort with speaker Peter Huchthausen, former Naval Attaché in Moscow and author of Hostile Waters. Peggy Adler, (860) 669-7706

OCTOBER 28-30, Melbourne. Australian Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers (AIPIO) to Conduct Intel'98, Meeting the Challenge: The Intelligence Advantage - Intelligence Solutions to Real World Problems. <http://www.aipio.asn.au/intel/intel98.html>

OCTOBER 28-30, Brno, Czech Republic. AFCEA Europe Symposium and TechNet Exposition on "The New NATO." tel: 32(2)705 2731 / afcea@euronet.be /http://www.afcea.org

OCTOBER 30 - Nov 1, Charlotte, NC. ISA/South conference at the Hilton at University Place in Charlotte, North Carolina. (704) 547-4536; fax (704) 547-3497; e-mail HICHERNO@email.uncc.edu.

NOVEMBER 1998:

NOVEMBER 4, Washington. NMIA/OPS Counterintelligence (CI 98) Symposium, Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642

NOVEMBER 5, Washington. NMIA Defense Intelligence Status (DIS 98), Bolling AFB EM Club. (301) 840-6642

NOVEMBER 12-14, Washington. AFIO National Symposium and Convention, Fairview Park Marriot, Fairfax County, Virginia. CHALLENGES FOR INTELLIGENCE: THE FUTURE IS NOW. Registration information will be disseminated shortly. (703) 790-0320.

DECEMBER 1998:

DEC 7, AFIO Winter Luncheon. Morning speaker (11am) plus luncheon speaker. (703)790-0320, https://www.afio.com.