AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 31
17 August 1998
AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are a 1998 initiative to
enhance services to AFIO members and to encourage them to recruit new
members. We need new members!
WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers, and includes adaptations
of articles produced by RADM Don Harvey (USN ret) and AFIO members.
WIN re-transmission is not permitted except without concurrence of
the WIN Editor.
See the AFIO Homepage <www.afio.com> for back
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AFIO LUNCHEON 14 SEPTEMBER
Fort Myers Officers Club, Arlington Virginia
Speakers: Major General (USA ret) Jack Singlaub (Operation
and Dr. Hamilton Merritt, Nobel Prize Nominee (Tragic Mountains,
Luncheon Chairman: Mr. Theodore
Send check for $26 (members and guests) or $29 (non-members) to
AFIO SYMPOSIUM AND CONVENTION, 5 and 6
Symposium Chairman: Peter Earnest,
5 Nov 98 - Board, Chapter and Membership
Meetings, and AWARDS Banquet.
6 Nov 90 - Professional Speakers, at CIA
SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS
EAST AFRICA BOMBINGS - Press reports indicate that US
intelligence had received several reports prior to the bombing - out
of thousands of reports of possible threats received each month -
that may turn out to have some relevance to the terrorist action.
One report indicated a sudden departure of Osama bin Laden's
deputies from hideouts in Afghanistan; a second consisted of a
warning of action against American installations in retaliation for
the Jihad fighters apprehended and extradited by Albania (at US
request) to Egypt - which resulted in increased security measures
for the US Embassy in Cairo by both US and Egyptian authorities; and
the third was a warning passed by the Israelis to the US in Kenya,
but with an Israeli caveat to 'take the information with a grain of
salt.' The worldwide intelligence efforts to apprehend the culprits
continue in full swing.
President Clinton has met with his top security advisors to
discuss ways in which the US can best defend US installations around
the world, and how to take a more offensive strategy against
The most recent anti-terrrorist law passed by Congress was in 1996
in the aftermath of the Oklahoma City bombing, calling for a 10-year
sentence for anyone convicted of providing funding, weapons, or safe
haven to terrorists. Thirty foreign terrorist groups have been
identified by the State Department as falling under the law.
Some experts have called for a US policy of assassinating
suspected terrorists or organizational leaders. US Executive Order
12333 bans assassinations. It is said to be unlikely to change. An
Israeli counter-terrorism expert has noted that assassinations often
"create a boomerang effect and the terrorists hit you back, often
much harder." It may be noted, however, that US has mounted
retaliatory air bombing raids, such as those on Iraq and Lybia, that
may be considered tantamount to assasination or bombing
Political terrorism (as distinguished from criminal and psychotic
terrorism) is generally a tool of desperation by states or groups
that are militarily and economically weak but ideologically,
religously or nationalistically fanatic. Since one man's terrorist
is another's freedom fighter, there is little international law on
the subject. The only international agreements are those prohibing
skyjacking" and action against "protected persons" (diplomats).
Aside from political and policy measures, the challenges for the
US are to improve intelligence coordination with other nations, to
further enhance American counter-terrorist intelligence operations (
both through technology and human resources), and to focus and refine
real-time analysis. We look forward to discussions with the
intelligence leadership on this topic at the AFIO Symposium at CIA in
November. (ref Phil Inq 13 Aug 98 pg A17) (RJ)
RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITE DESTROYED - On 12 August an Air
force Titan 4A rocket with an alleged NRO reconnaissance satellite
payloadwas launched, then suddenly blew up 20,000 feet above the
Atlantic. Failures like these occur from time to time. The Air force
is investigating the cause of the accident and will attempt to
retrieve the debris in shallow waters. The last accident with a
Titan 4A was five years ago, in August 1993.
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) speculated that the
payload was a billion dollar Advanced Vortex signals intelligence
satellite. This system is said to deploy a huge antenna with a
diameter of more than 300 feet in space, allegedly to intercept
broadcast transmissions from radios, cell phones, radars and other
electronic communications systems. A government official was quoted
as saying that it would take a few years to build a replacement -
"they are all handcrafted."
The FAS subscribes to the notion that publication of technical
characteristics of American reconnaissance and other intelligence
capabilities is in the public interest, if not in the nation's. Aside
from pointing up the leakage in much of our secrecy protection - if
you know where to look - the FAS proposition is dubious at best.
(WP, 13 Aug pg A2; WallSt J 13 Aug98 pA16) (RJ)
CINCSPACE CALLS FOR SATELLITE DEFENSES - Outgoing
commander-in-chief of US Space Command (CINCSPACE) General Howell M.
Estes, USAF, recently called for national space policies to guide US
military responses to potential attacks on our space platforms. We
need, said the general, special sensors on new US spacecraft,
enabling rapid detection of attack.
General Estes noted that if one or more of our systems fail, we
have no way of knowing 'for sure' what happened - whether it received
an electromagnetic pulse from deep space, was lased, was killed by a
kinetic-kill device - or died from fatigue. "We can only make
educated guesses." He called for improvements in command and control,
including integration of USAF space surveillance sensors, and closer
links with the NRO as well as with NASA and the commercial space
sector. A proposal for co-locating NRO and US Space Command
operations centers is under consideration.
US protective measures and responses were too sensitive to be
discussed in the interview, but the military has the responsibility
for space control. General Estes advocated creating of a National
Space Council to focus on policy guidelines, for space is a source of
national power. The total worldwide value of space-based systems,
including their operations and services they provide, will be over
$120 billion by the year 2000. (Av Wk & Space Tech, 10 Aug 98)
DOE TIGHTENING SECURITY AT LABS - the Department of Energy
has instituted a program of improving security at its 30 national
laboratories. A GAO report published last year was highly critical of
systemic laxities in security procedures at three big-time labs -
Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia. The GAO critique cited:
failures to conduct requisite background checks of many foreign
visitors; routine exemptions from established security procedures;
poorly trained US hosts for foreign visitors; failure to limit
foreign exposure to controlled areas; and other shortcomings.
More than 4,000 visitors from China, most of them military
officers or scientists, have been hosted by DOE's nuclear labs since
1994. The only nation with more visitors was Russia, with whom the
US conducts a variety of nuclear cooperative safeguard and stockpile
programs. Between 1994 and 1996, over 800 Indian nationals and 30
Pakistanis visited the three labs. After the Indian and pakistani
nuclear tests, visits from nationals of these two countries were
The DoE security program creates two new offices to coordinate and
direct security at the labs. An Office of Intelligence will be
responsible for identifying the US technologies and technical data
that are likely to be targeted by foreign spies; and an Office of
Counterintelligence, to be headed by an FBI veteran, will play its
role to maintain security. (Def Nws 8-14Jun98, p3; Chic Trib 21 Jun
98 p1) (Harvey)
ISRAELI ESPIONAGE IN RUSSIA - The Omsk-Region directorate
of the Federal Security Service (FSB) in Siberia publicized a
successful counterintelligence operation at the Transmash defense
plant, exposing a spy network that included the head of the design
bureau, Aleksandr Sakov. The Omsk plant is engaged in designing the
T-80U tank, the "Black Eagle - the fighting machine for the 21st
The Israeli agent handler was identified as the local manager of
NATIV, the Israeli 'Office for Liaison with Jews in the CIS', who
reportedly ran a ring of some twenty informants. Israeli sources
did not comment on the allegation. Last March it was reported that
the heads of Israel's Mossad and Shin Bet agencies had called for the
closing of NATIV, saying it had squandered public funds and was
waging a turf war with intelligence organizations. A Israeli
Government watchdog committee was then appointed to monitor NATIV's
activities.(Tel Aviv Ha'arets/English version, 11 Aug 98; RTV, Moscow
television 2025 GMT, 11 Aug 98) (RJ)
SECTION II - BOOKS & PUBLICATIONS
-HEADQUARTERS GERMANY, by Klaus Eichner and Andreas
Dobbert, 381 pages, DM24.80; and VERSCHLUSSSACHE BND,
by Udo Ulfkotte, Loehler &Amelang, DM 48. These two books were
reviewed in the Economist. The first book, by two former East German
intelligence analysts, questions the value of expensive intelligence
bureaucracies. Both books decry the amount of spying on friendly
nations that is going on. Ulkotte notes with amusement that Britain's
electronic eavesdropping service recently advertised on the Internet
for speakers of German - a language spoken in countries on which
Britain, officially at least, does not spy.
The books also posit that there is too much intelligence product
with too little marginal worth. In this respect a recent British
initiative to set up an "internal market" to evaluate the value of
intelligence products by overseas stations is of some interest. Each
station's annual cost is judged against how much the in-house
"customers" are willing to pay for its information in notional
Other questions addressed by the authors include the problems of
official-versus- non-official cover, and "offensive and defensive"
technologies for spying. The authors may have a "sour grapes"
perspective, but the bottomline pursued - the marginal utility of
spying - needs to be examined from time to time, if for no other
reason than to maintain focus and relate means to ends. It eventually
resolves itself to questions of political, economic and security
gains versus risk, and effective risk management. (Econ. 28Mar 98, p
CIA AND THE VIETNAM POLICYMAKERS: THREE EPISODES
1962-1968, by Dr. Harold Ford, released by the CIA History
Staff at the Center for the Study of Intelligence. The study shows
how the pessimistic (and often accurate) assessments of mid-level CIA
analysts were softened or completely obscured in deference to the
pre-conceived views of the situation of key Administration officials.
The book is available from NTIS (703) 605 6000 or at
AFIO MONOGRAPH #7 - "Intelligence: What It
Is and How to Use It" was updated by the author, Dr. John
Macartney in 1997. About 40 pages long, it has been widely accepted
as a "primer" and used at colleges ranging from the Service Academies
to the JFK School at Harvard. Contact <email@example.com> (RJ)
- UK NATIONAL ARCHIVES CD ROM ON M.I.5 - The first
British Intelligence records ever to be released to the British
public, the Public Record Office of the National Archives of Britain
has released a CD ROM with documents covering the period 1909 - 1919,
including M.I.5's involvement in setting up the American "Black
Chamber." Telephone Paul Sinnott at 44 181 392 5271 or fax 5266. I
tried the email and it was refused. (RJ)
- CORPORATE GRAY ONLINE is a free military to
civilian career transition guide at <http://www.bluetogray.com>
The sites includes job opportunities, and information for making
informed career decisions.(RJ)
- BAY OF PIGS DOCUMENTS RELEASED BY CIA - In June
CIA released over 3,000 pages of documents related to the Bay of Pigs
operation. The documents are available on the Agency's internet site
SECTION III CALENDAR
14 September - AFIO LUNCHEON, Fort Myers Officers Club,
NEW DATE - NOTE THE CHANGE!!!
1030 - 1400. Speakers: Major General (USA ret) Jack Singlaub
(Operation Tailwind) and Dr. Hamilton Merritt, Nobel Prize Nominee
(Tragic Mountains -- The War in Laos). Luncheon Chairman: Mr.
Theodore Shackley. Registration: AFIO members $26, Non-members $29.
Send check with name and address to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste
303A, McLean VA 22101-4533
5 and 6 November - AFIO National Symposium and Convention.
CHALLENGES FOR INTELLIGENCE: THE FUTURE IS NOW
5 November - afternoon - General Membership Meeting, including
distinguished speakers, and discussions on where AFIO is going. At
the TYSONS CORNER MARRIOTT HOTEL 1330 - 1730 (Registration 1230 -
5 November evening - 1830 - 2130 Reception and AFIO Awards
6 November - Symposium sessions - at CIA HEADQUARTERS
6 November - Symposium end social session - at CIA
NEW DATE - NOTE THE CHANGE!!!
7 December - NOTE: The AFIO luncheon originally scheduled for 7
December 98 has been postponed until January 1999. The Board meeting
on 7 December is also postponed until January.
SECTION IV - BULLETIN BOARD
AFIO MEDIA INPUTS - AFIO has responded to the media for
comment on crises in recent weeks and days. Particular mention is
made of the contributions by Board member Sam Halpern in telephone
commentaries to national press representatives; by AFIO President
Peter Earnest for his excellent television interview with McNeil
Lehrer Public Television; and to Dave Whipple for his insightful
commentaries on the East African terrorist bombing on BBC television
Responsiveness to the media is an important means to achieve AFIO's
objectives, and our thanks go to all AFIO members who participated
around the country in helping to bring common sense and insight into
the public discussions on intelligence.
- NEW CHAPTER - The newly organized AFIO Northeast Florida
Chapter will hold its first organizational Dinner Meeting on Friday
11 September 1998 at the holiday Inn, Palatka, at 6:00 pm. For
reservations or information, contact Col Barney Barco (352) 475 2351,
or email <firstname.lastname@example.org.
- GRANT Chapter, Missoula, Montana, will waive Chapter
membership dues for one year for new members of AFIO. At the recent
26 July meeting, two new members were introduced, and heard John
Arneson speak about Special Forces at nearby Fort Lewis. On 25
SEPTEMBER Richard Dixon will address the group on Churchil's
involvement in intelligence in WW II. For the 23 OCTOBER meeting,
Joe Bouchard will speak on Native American Warriors.
Current and prospective AFIO members in Montana are urged to join
this dynamic chapter and participate in its activities. Contact
President Charlie Crookshanks <email@example.com>.
- ACADEMIC RESEARCH SUPPORT NEEDED - AFIO member Prof.
Peter Kassebaum requests factual information on the late Swedish
industrialist Axel Leonard Wenner-Gren, who allegedly was a
go-between for the Nazis and Edward VIII while they both sat out the
war in the West Indies, and who died in 1961. Contact
- JOB AVAILABLE - -ANSER, a Public Service Research
Institute, has an opening for a mid-level security analyst to develop
security policy documents and cost models. BA degree required. Must
be proficient on PC computer platforms and MS Windows applications.
Contact <firstname.lastname@example.org>. Reference AFIO.
- JOB WANTED - Individual with background as computer
programmer, software tester, information technical writer, trainer
and web author, current SCI clearances, is looking for full-time
career opportunity in development of intelligence products and
systems. Contact AFIO <email@example.com> for referral.
- PCIC EXPO - Career Development for Intelligence
Professionals - will be held 11-12 November, 1998, Tysons Corner
Marriott, 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna, Va. Included will be workshops,
seminars and exhibits, along with Government and Industry talent
scouts. The last one was a bellringer - outstanding! AFIO endorsed.
Check <firstname.lastname@example.org> or call Lori
Tugman at 703 379 8400 for attendance, exhibiting or advertising.
- COLLEGE STUDENTS INTERESTED IN INTELLIGENCE - Christopher
Harrington has constructed a Web page for college students interested
in intelligence-related careers: <http://home.sprynet.com/sprynet/farren>
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