AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 36
22 September 1998

WIN commentaries are a 1998 initiative produced by the WIN Editor and AFIO Executive Director, Roy Jonkers, as a service to the members and in support of AFIO's educational objectives.

Contributions by others, notably by RADM Don Harvey and Dr. John Macartney, are highly valued and always acknowledged.


- KOSSOVO - In July, when the Kossovo Liberation Army (KLA) controlled one-third of Kossovo, and NATO threatened devastating air raids on the Serbs, KLA spokesmen began talking of liberating not only Kossovo, but "freeing": the Albanians in Macedonia and Montenegro, and perhaps even those in Greece. They kept announcing their goal of a "greater Albania." (This editor remembers similar German rhetoric in the 1930's).

NATO reconsidered. The lessons of the US bombing of the Serbs in Bosnia were evaluated. In 1995 the Serbs were indeed driven to the negotiating table, but at the same time the Croats and Muslims both surged forward in another display of US-protected ethnic cleansing. In Kossovo, the Serbs could be easily beaten again, but an independent Kossovo, and certainly a "greater Albania" appears to be in no one's interest.

The KLA's armed strength stems from the disorder in Albania - after a pyramid-banking scam led to an uprising against the Government, removal of the Premier, and disintegration of the Albanian Army. (Even today the central government is not in control of the Northern part of Albania.) The country's armories were thrown open. A million Kalashnilov's went on sale at $15 a piece. The KLA, formed in 1993, collected money from 500,000 Albanians living abroad, and armed insurgency began in 1998.

The KLA suffers from divided leadership and untrained personnel. The movement also suffers from the extraordinary intensity of antipathy between Albanians and Albanians, both within Albania and Kossovo. NATO is again considering some form of intervention. For an excellent review of the situation, read the article by Tim Judah in the New York Review of Books. Vol XLV, No 15, dtd Oct 6, 98. (RoyJ)

- RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCE IN DISTRESS - The Russian strategic weapons system - ranging from laboratories and early warning systems to submarines and silos, is imploding along with the ruble. Thousands of workers and servicemen are not being paid - have not been paid for months - and modernization plans are falling by the wayside. General Alexander Lebed, Governor of Krasnoyarsk, has hinted that local selling of information would remedy the situation.

Serious incidents point up the dangers. The armed forces are experiencing extreme human stress. A sailor in a nuclear-driven submarine recently went berserk and killed eight shipmates. If he had also blown up the ammunition in the sub, the country would have a nuclear catastrophy, another Chernobyl, according to the Director of the Federal Security Service, Vladimir Prikhodko.

The early warning system is becoming deficient. It did not, for example, pick up the recent launch of the North Korean missile. The space satellite warning system (to spot missile launches) no longer provides 24 hour coverage of US missile fields. It covers US missiles for 17 hours per day, and perhaps significantly less, according to a recent treport by the Congressional Budget Office. An impaired warning system could lead to the erroneous launch of a retaliatory strike - a reason why President Yeltsin and President Clinton at the recent summit in Moscow agreed to set up a system to share early warning information.

In July President Boris Yeltsin adopted a strategic plan for the future Russian strategic nuclear weapons posture. The plan envisions continued shrinkage of the strategic weapons arsenal and a submarine force that will carry 50% of the nuclear warheads (up from 35% today), in compliance with the Start II treaty. The underlying resumption is that both missiles and submarines will be improved, but the missiles are experiencing repeated test failures and work on the new submarine has been suspended.

Scientific and production groups are breaking up. The production base is falling to pieces. The government plans to cut 45,000 jobs in the nuclear weapons complexes, closing two of the four nuclear weapons production facilities, to reduce warhead production over the next two years. The remaining facilities will presumably upgrade the inventory of Russian nuclear warheads, which have an average life-span of ten years.

To prevent a brain-drain to Iran etc., the US continues to help displaced Russian scientists find commercial work, programs which originated in 1994 and are conducted under laboratory-to-laboratory arrangements.Congress has allocated $20Million for this purpose in the next Fiscal Year. NOTE: These programs are included in Sandia and Los Alamos presentations at the AFIO National Policy and Technology Symposium on 5 and 6 November (see below).

The need and opportunities for full and complete intelligence coverage and wise foreign policy are abundantly clear. (Wpost 18 Sep 98 p. A25 and p A26 by Hoffman & Pincus) (RoyJ)

- FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE - Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has closed his office to the media after receiving abundant coverage on internal policy conflicts and turf battles. It is known that Soviet-era economists such as Leonid Albakin are again among those advising the new Russian Government. Albakin holds that imports must be decreased, foreign investment in productive facilities encouraged, and defense industries revived. They criticize the heavy foreign and domestic borrowing of previous governments to shore up Russian finances. It remains to be seen how Russia can restore confidence in its currency, and whether it will adopt the Chilean model (a tax on foreign short term money movement), the Argentine model (currency board) or the Malaysia model ( erect barriers to protect its industry).

There is a worldwide groundswell of demand for changes in the international financial system, which, as currently structured, exposes nations to financial panics and speculators. Hedge funds can move billions quickly to overwhelm the finances of individual countries. In response to the currency crisis that has swept Thailand, Indonesia, Malyasia, Korea and now Russia - and threatening Brazil - along with a drastic drop in world markets, the President has called for consideration of a number of measures to address the problem, and the British Prime Minister has articulated a need for a near- term solution. Domestic US circles have called on the SEC to regulate margin requirements on foreign currency futures to provide a more stable financial structure for major banks. Some lessons of 1929 may have been learned. A possible Bretton Woods-like arrangement, with changes in both the IMF and the World Bank, are likely. (WP 18 Sep 98, p. A25, 10 Sep p A10) (Roy J)

- OPEN SKIES POLICY ABANDONED - Commerce and State Department officials called a meeting of US satellite industry executives in July to announce that the US was abandoning it's decades-old "open skies" policy. Beginning in the early years of space exploration, the US encouraged the notion that objects orbiting the earth could peer down on whatever they wished. The United Nations codified the concept in 1986.

The companies were told in July that they can zero in on the rest of the world at one-meter resolution, but can view Israel only at the older two-meter resolution. In defending the change, the Administration spookesman said that the prohibition on one-meter images of Israel achieves a "delicate balance among economic development, national security (not otherwise identified) and foreign policy." Industry executives charged that the Administration was bowing to the influential Israeli lobby.

The industry is more worried about the precedent for blacking out some areas of earth than about losing sales to Israel. It is likely that intelligence folk are at least as concerned as industry at this breach of a policy that has been so supportive of US national interests ( Av Wk 27 Jul 98, p2; WallStJ 24 Jul 98, p16) ( DonH)

- US PLANNING FOR UNIFICATION OF SADDAM's FOES - The Administration has published a 27-page plan to rebuild Iraq's political opposition and to prepare a case for possible war crimes indictment of Iraqi leaders. The plan calls for spending $5 million, which congress has already made available, to train opposition groups in organizing and recruitment techniques, to fund an exile activity center in London, and to translate and index captured Iraqi documents for possible use as evidence in war crimes prosecution. Funds have been set aside to establish an anti-Saddam Hussein "Radio Free Iraq" run by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from Prague.

Reportedly the Administration has paralleled this overt effort with a covert initiative. A classified notice or "finding" seeking approval to tap secret contingency funds within the intelligence budget has already been sent to Congress. .

Senior US officials say they have no illusions their plan will put an early end to Saddam Hussein's regime, but want to support and unify Iraqi opposition groups. Some 73 different opposition groups, some tiny and others likely penetrated by Saddam's intelligence operations, have been identified thus far. In light of the miserable track record of previous US attempts, it is well that both Congressional and Administration officials acknowledge the long-term nature of the campaign.(WallStJ 31Jul98; p A9 and 17 Jul p. A16; Wpost 2 Aug98) (DonH)


- China's Pitfall (Zhongguo de xianjing) - by He Qinglian, Hong Kong: Mingjing chubanshe,1998, 410pp, HK$107.00) This is an eye-opening first systematic study of the course and consequences of China's economic boom. It details Deng's reform, the "marketization of power," showing the "carving up of state property by China's power elites" (seemingly not so different than what happened in Russia), and feeding pervasive corruption. Aside from economic and social factors, other endemic problems - environmental pollution, lowering water tables, overpopulation, and annually declining arable acreage, are also discussed.

Of importance to the world economy, the Chinese Government announced last Spring that the yuan would never be devalued. But the value of the yuan is maintained mostly by restrictive laws on currency trading, and is under increasing pressure from economic problems and dislocations discussed in the book. There are serious economic imbalances, including excessive oversupply of consumer goods, and strong indicators that the Chinese government may not be able to keep its word.A devaluation of the yuan would set off another wave of devaluations in Asia and affect world markets. (Recommend the Book review 'The Great Leap Backward?' by Lin Binyan and Perry Link, NY Rev. of Books, Oct 6, 98, p. 19)

- SPYMASTERS: Ten CIA Officers In Their Own Words, by Ralph Weber (AFIO Board member, Professor at Marquette University), ISBN 0-8420-2714-9. A collection of interviews revealing perspectives on covert operations and American foreign policy by senior CIA officials. Includes recollections by Allen Dulles, Sidney Souers, John McCone, William Colby, Ray Cline, Lyman Kirkpatrick, Samuel Halpern, and Robert Armory, covering the relationships of CIA and presidents during the most threatening decades of the Cold War. The book was compiled by Ralph Weber, former CIA and NSA Scholar in Residence, and will be available in November '98. (not reviewed; Roy J.)

- NIGHT SOLDIERS, by Alan Furst, was discussed by Dr. Peter Kassebaum at the September meeting of the AFIO Bay Area Chapter. The novel traces the recruitment, training and eventual betrayal of a group of young men of diverse cultural backgrounds (Soviet "marginal men" - - Jews, Serbs, Poles, Bulgarians ...) who join the Soviet Security apparatus (NKVD). The novel spans the period of 1934-45 and captures the terror of the Stalin years, including the purging of the Soviet Officer Corps and the Security Services, including the show trials. It moves from Bulgaria and the Balkans to Mother Russia and then onto Spain and the Spanish civil war, France and Siberia. What is portrayed is a world in which betrayal is routine. Those who enjoy the genre of the historical spy novel from the period set against a backdrop of the Spanish Civil War and WW II in the Balkans would be well served by this book. (Peter Kassebaum, College of Marin)


NOTE: This WIN contains the latest updated information on the AFIO Symposium and Convention. Please note that ALL OF THE SPEAKERS ARE NOW CONFIRMED.

YOU CAN HELP by retransmitting the Symposium Agenda to other "like-minded" associations or corporations to which you may belong, or to individuals you know. They are invited to attend! Bring a guest - US citizens are welcome.

Let me have your sugggestions on how we can "spread the word." WE NEED YOUR HELP in "marketing" our Symposium!

5, 6 and 7 November 98 - AFIO National Symposium and Convention.

We have assembled a superb cast of eminent Symposium speakers - a great opportunity for an update on a wide range of intelligence activities, programs and plans.

NOTE the breakout between SYMPOSIUM and AFIO CONVENTION sessions. This is so we can invite non-AFIO members to attend the Symposium, to attract potential new members, to generate revenue, and to provide wider access to a unique professional opportunity.

Please help spread the word! 'Constructively interested' US citizens are invited to the Symposium, which is separately "priced."!


The SYMPOSIUM sessions start Thursday 5 November 1 p.m (Registration at 12:30). at the Tysons Corner Marriott, and continue on Friday 6 November at CIA Headquarters.

This first Symposium session will concentrate on Security issues. Session Chairman Ted Shackley (CIA ret), has lined up three outstanding speakers (all confirmed) to address counterintelligence, terrorism, executive kidnapping protection and Russian organized crime, all most relevant topics (see below).

The SYMPOSIUM will continue on Friday 6 November at 0800 at CIA Headquarters.

The first session will be chaired by AFIO President Peter Earnest (see below).

The second session, chaired by LTG (USA ret) James Williams will address technology challenges for intelligence, including technological developments affecting intelligence capabilities, methodologies, arts and crafts. Top drawer speakers will address the topic (see below).

The CIA-hosted sessions will conclude with a Social Hour with hors d'oevres and refreshments.

NOTE: CIA requires time to process Social Security Numbers for admission - please register early!



THURSDAY 5 Nov. - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel, Vienna,Va.

1230 - 1600 - Symposium Session I Chairman: Ted Shackley (CIA ret)

Taylor Lawrence - US Senate SSCI Staff Director - Counterintelligence, Counter-terrorism

Thomas Levering - Corporate Security Director - Executive Kidnapping Protection

John Dziak - Professor - Russian Organized Crime


0700 - 1830 - Symposium Sessions II & III, and Social Hour

Session II - Chairman Peter Earnest (CIA ret) - INTELLIGENCE STRATEGY

Hon. George Tenet - DCI - CIA and Intelligence Community Future Strategies

Hon. Porter Goss - US Congress, HPSCI Chairman - Blueprint for Intelligence

Hon. Phyllis Oakley - Director INR - US Department of State - Intelligence & Diplomacy

Session III Chairman: LTG James Williams (USA ret) 1100 - 1730 (including lunch)


Hon. Keith Hall - Director NRO - US Overhead Reconnaissance Intelligence

LGEN Kenneth Minihan - Director NSA - Cyber War Trends and Issues

Mr. David Nokes - Director Sandia Laboratories/SARC - Emerging Technologies

Dr. John Wagner - Sandia National Laboratories - Breakthroughs in Security Analysis

Dr. H. T. Hawkins - Program Director, Los Alamos Laboratories - Nuclear Intelligence

Mr Gary Peters, Esq.- Dept Justice/ FINCEN - Int'l Financial Crime Detection

1700 - 1800 - Social Hour. DCI invited to attend.

NOTE: All speakers are confirmed.


The Convention starts Thursday 5 November at 4 pm with a General Membership Meeting at the Tysons Corner MARRIOTT Hotel (see below for agenda) for members and associate members.

FOR THE FIRST TIME there will be an AFIO AWARDS ceremony at the Banquet - by presenting the newly created DAVID ATLEE PHILLIPS Award (for AFIO members or associate members who have made sustained exceptional contributions to AFIO and its objectives), commemorating the founder and first president of AFIO; and the General RICHARD STILLWELL Award (for exceptional and sustained Chapter leadership contributions to AFIO objectives by Chapter members and associate members), commemorating the illustrious second President of AFIO.

Additionally there will be an Award to a high-profile JOURNALIST for quality commentaries and balanced reporting on intelligence-related matters in printed media. An eminent keynote speaker will round out the Banquet proceedings.

The convention will also feature an informal "pay as you go" breakfast at the Marriott Hotel on Saturday morning 0900 on 7 November, particularly for out-of-town members and associate members with Officers, Directors, and Life Members.


Thursday 5 November 1600 - 2200 -Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel, Leesburg Pike, Vienna

General Membership Meeting - AFIO President Peter Earnest

Briefing by Executive Director Roy Jonkers on the status and progress of the Association.

Discussion with Members - President Peter Earnest

Board Meeting with Chapter Presidents - AFIO Board Chairman Bill Kvetkas


AFIO Awards Banquet. - Chairman: AFIO President Peter Earnest.

David Atlee Phillips Award

General William Stillwell Award

Journalism Award

Honoring Life Members

Eminent Keynote Speaker

Dress - coat and tie.

Saturday 7 November 98 - 0830 at Tysons corner Marriott Hotel

Informal pay-as-you-go Breakfast with members of the AFIO Board of directors and Executive Officers. Out-of-town members are particularly invited. Let us know if you plan to attend this informal Breakfast social meeeting.

Register Early! Let us know if you intend to attend - it helps us with planning! Also - CIA requires time to process list of attendees (with SSN's). Bring a guest! Spread the word!

Bring your spouse to the Banquet - the Tysons Corner shopping malls are next door.


1) CONVENTION AND SYMPOSIUM combined package contribution/donation - (including General Membership meeting, Reception, Banquet, Friday lunch and Social Hour at CIA). - - - $225

2) SYMPOSIUM ONLY contribution/donation (Thursday 5 Nov 1 - 4pm, Friday 6 Nov 8am - 6:30 pm) - (includes lunch and social hour) - - - $145.

3) CONVENTION ONLY contribution (Thursday 4 PM - 10 PM), including General Membership Meeting, Reception, Awards Banquet - -- $100.

HOTEL - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel - 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna Va - 703 734 3200. Ask for weekend rate. No bloc of rooms has been set aside or reserved. RESERVE early! The front-desk rate quoted was $ 84 per night.


- AFIO MAIL ANNOUNCEMENT - AFIO members will receive a ballot for Board of Directors and the new Bylaws, along with the Symposium Agenda in the mail shortly.

To reiterate the reasons for Bylaws revision - (1) to follow legal advice by our attorney, (2) to clarify the multitude of amendments, (3) to bring the Bylaws in line with recent practice, and (4) to empower the association and contribute to its viability. The Bylaws were widely coordinated. The focal point for the new Bylaws is Sam Halpern (CIA ret), AFIO Board of Directors.

It is important for the association that members return their ballot and vote for both the slate of Directors and the Bylaws. We trust you will give us your concurrence and your remarks, and look forward to further constructive discussions at the Convention or by email. .

The next edition of the INTELLIGENCER is ready and will follow shortly after the above-mentioned ballot/ bylaws/ agenda mailing.

TAPS - Jim Quesada, former President of the Bay Area Chapter of AFIO, recently passed away. He was a primary force in the development of the membership of the Bay Area Chapter and encouraged its expanded educational activities. Jim was a veteran of the US Army, with service in Airborne and Special Force, retiring in 1968 with over 20 years of service, serving both as an NCO and as an Officer. In addition he served with the CIA from 1968 until he again retired in 1982. Jim's activities with the Agency and many of his activities with the military remain classified, but he received numerous decorations. His life was dedicated to family and country and he served as a constant reminder of what honor and duty is all about. He will be missed by his family, friends, and the nation. We bid farewell to a valued colleague. (ref. Peter Kassebaum)

- JOB WANTED - Former Career Special Operations Officer, with twelve years experience as industry Systems Analyst, BS Engineering, MS System Management, current TS/SCI clearances, member ARPA senior working group, with recent experience with USSOCOM SOF baseline master plan, counternarcotics stratergy, and low intensity conflict logistics, available near-term. Tel 703 824 3271

-JOBS OFFERED - CIA advertises "The Ultimate International Experience" in the clandestine service for extraordinary individuals who want more than a job. Refer the qualified and the curious to CIA's website at <> .

- NOTE - WIN re-transmission is not permitted without specific concurrence by the WIN Editor, EXCEPT for individual single instances for recruiting a new AFIO member.


Recruit a "buddy," friend or acquaintance - do your part for AFIO and its objectives.

Get credit for sponsoring new members!

- NOTE: AFIO Associate Membership is open to US citizens who subscribe to AFIO's principles and objectives - see AFIO's Homepage

Let us know if you have a receptive prospect - we'll be pleased to send you, him or her a membership application. We need new members to keep AFIO healthy and on course - -

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