AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 36
22 September 1998
WIN commentaries are a 1998 initiative produced by the WIN Editor and
AFIO Executive Director, Roy Jonkers, as a service to the members and
in support of AFIO's educational objectives.
Contributions by others, notably by RADM Don Harvey and Dr. John
Macartney, are highly valued and always acknowledged.
SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES &
- KOSSOVO - In July, when the Kossovo Liberation Army (KLA)
controlled one-third of Kossovo, and NATO threatened devastating air
raids on the Serbs, KLA spokesmen began talking of liberating not
only Kossovo, but "freeing": the Albanians in Macedonia and
Montenegro, and perhaps even those in Greece. They kept announcing
their goal of a "greater Albania." (This editor remembers similar
German rhetoric in the 1930's).
NATO reconsidered. The lessons of the US bombing of the Serbs in
Bosnia were evaluated. In 1995 the Serbs were indeed driven to the
negotiating table, but at the same time the Croats and Muslims both
surged forward in another display of US-protected ethnic cleansing.
In Kossovo, the Serbs could be easily beaten again, but an
independent Kossovo, and certainly a "greater Albania" appears to be
in no one's interest.
The KLA's armed strength stems from the disorder in Albania -
after a pyramid-banking scam led to an uprising against the
Government, removal of the Premier, and disintegration of the
Albanian Army. (Even today the central government is not in control
of the Northern part of Albania.) The country's armories were thrown
open. A million Kalashnilov's went on sale at $15 a piece. The KLA,
formed in 1993, collected money from 500,000 Albanians living abroad,
and armed insurgency began in 1998.
The KLA suffers from divided leadership and untrained personnel.
The movement also suffers from the extraordinary intensity of
antipathy between Albanians and Albanians, both within Albania and
Kossovo. NATO is again considering some form of intervention. For an
excellent review of the situation, read the article by Tim Judah in
the New York Review of Books. Vol XLV, No 15, dtd Oct 6, 98.
- RUSSIAN NUCLEAR FORCE IN DISTRESS - The Russian strategic
weapons system - ranging from laboratories and early warning systems
to submarines and silos, is imploding along with the ruble. Thousands
of workers and servicemen are not being paid - have not been paid for
months - and modernization plans are falling by the wayside. General
Alexander Lebed, Governor of Krasnoyarsk, has hinted that local
selling of information would remedy the situation.
Serious incidents point up the dangers. The armed forces are
experiencing extreme human stress. A sailor in a nuclear-driven
submarine recently went berserk and killed eight shipmates. If he had
also blown up the ammunition in the sub, the country would have a
nuclear catastrophy, another Chernobyl, according to the Director of
the Federal Security Service, Vladimir Prikhodko.
The early warning system is becoming deficient. It did not, for
example, pick up the recent launch of the North Korean missile. The
space satellite warning system (to spot missile launches) no longer
provides 24 hour coverage of US missile fields. It covers US missiles
for 17 hours per day, and perhaps significantly less, according to a
recent treport by the Congressional Budget Office. An impaired
warning system could lead to the erroneous launch of a retaliatory
strike - a reason why President Yeltsin and President Clinton at the
recent summit in Moscow agreed to set up a system to share early
In July President Boris Yeltsin adopted a strategic plan for the
future Russian strategic nuclear weapons posture. The plan envisions
continued shrinkage of the strategic weapons arsenal and a submarine
force that will carry 50% of the nuclear warheads (up from 35%
today), in compliance with the Start II treaty. The underlying
resumption is that both missiles and submarines will be improved, but
the missiles are experiencing repeated test failures and work on the
new submarine has been suspended.
Scientific and production groups are breaking up. The production
base is falling to pieces. The government plans to cut 45,000 jobs in
the nuclear weapons complexes, closing two of the four nuclear
weapons production facilities, to reduce warhead production over the
next two years. The remaining facilities will presumably upgrade the
inventory of Russian nuclear warheads, which have an average
life-span of ten years.
To prevent a brain-drain to Iran etc., the US continues to help
displaced Russian scientists find commercial work, programs which
originated in 1994 and are conducted under laboratory-to-laboratory
arrangements.Congress has allocated $20Million for this purpose in
the next Fiscal Year. NOTE: These programs are included in Sandia and
Los Alamos presentations at the AFIO National Policy and Technology
Symposium on 5 and 6 November (see below).
The need and opportunities for full and complete intelligence
coverage and wise foreign policy are abundantly clear. (Wpost 18 Sep
98 p. A25 and p A26 by Hoffman & Pincus) (RoyJ)
- FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE - Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov has
closed his office to the media after receiving abundant coverage on
internal policy conflicts and turf battles. It is known that
Soviet-era economists such as Leonid Albakin are again among those
advising the new Russian Government. Albakin holds that imports must
be decreased, foreign investment in productive facilities encouraged,
and defense industries revived. They criticize the heavy foreign and
domestic borrowing of previous governments to shore up Russian
finances. It remains to be seen how Russia can restore confidence in
its currency, and whether it will adopt the Chilean model (a tax on
foreign short term money movement), the Argentine model (currency
board) or the Malaysia model ( erect barriers to protect its
There is a worldwide groundswell of demand for changes in the
international financial system, which, as currently structured,
exposes nations to financial panics and speculators. Hedge funds can
move billions quickly to overwhelm the finances of individual
countries. In response to the currency crisis that has swept
Thailand, Indonesia, Malyasia, Korea and now Russia - and threatening
Brazil - along with a drastic drop in world markets, the President
has called for consideration of a number of measures to address the
problem, and the British Prime Minister has articulated a need for a
near- term solution. Domestic US circles have called on the SEC to
regulate margin requirements on foreign currency futures to provide a
more stable financial structure for major banks. Some lessons of 1929
may have been learned. A possible Bretton Woods-like arrangement,
with changes in both the IMF and the World Bank, are likely. (WP 18
Sep 98, p. A25, 10 Sep p A10) (Roy J)
- OPEN SKIES POLICY ABANDONED - Commerce and State Department
officials called a meeting of US satellite industry executives in
July to announce that the US was abandoning it's decades-old "open
skies" policy. Beginning in the early years of space exploration, the
US encouraged the notion that objects orbiting the earth could peer
down on whatever they wished. The United Nations codified the concept
The companies were told in July that they can zero in on the rest
of the world at one-meter resolution, but can view Israel only at the
older two-meter resolution. In defending the change, the
Administration spookesman said that the prohibition on one-meter
images of Israel achieves a "delicate balance among economic
development, national security (not otherwise identified) and foreign
policy." Industry executives charged that the Administration was
bowing to the influential Israeli lobby.
The industry is more worried about the precedent for blacking out
some areas of earth than about losing sales to Israel. It is likely
that intelligence folk are at least as concerned as industry at this
breach of a policy that has been so supportive of US national
interests ( Av Wk 27 Jul 98, p2; WallStJ 24 Jul 98, p16) ( DonH)
- US PLANNING FOR UNIFICATION OF SADDAM's FOES - The
Administration has published a 27-page plan to rebuild Iraq's
political opposition and to prepare a case for possible war crimes
indictment of Iraqi leaders. The plan calls for spending $5 million,
which congress has already made available, to train opposition groups
in organizing and recruitment techniques, to fund an exile activity
center in London, and to translate and index captured Iraqi documents
for possible use as evidence in war crimes prosecution. Funds have
been set aside to establish an anti-Saddam Hussein "Radio Free Iraq"
run by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty from Prague.
Reportedly the Administration has paralleled this overt effort
with a covert initiative. A classified notice or "finding" seeking
approval to tap secret contingency funds within the intelligence
budget has already been sent to Congress. .
Senior US officials say they have no illusions their plan will put
an early end to Saddam Hussein's regime, but want to support and
unify Iraqi opposition groups. Some 73 different opposition groups,
some tiny and others likely penetrated by Saddam's intelligence
operations, have been identified thus far. In light of the miserable
track record of previous US attempts, it is well that both
Congressional and Administration officials acknowledge the long-term
nature of the campaign.(WallStJ 31Jul98; p A9 and 17 Jul p. A16;
Wpost 2 Aug98) (DonH)
SECTION II - BOOK REVIEWS
- China's Pitfall (Zhongguo de xianjing) - by He Qinglian, Hong
Kong: Mingjing chubanshe,1998, 410pp, HK$107.00) This is an
eye-opening first systematic study of the course and consequences of
China's economic boom. It details Deng's reform, the "marketization
of power," showing the "carving up of state property by China's power
elites" (seemingly not so different than what happened in Russia),
and feeding pervasive corruption. Aside from economic and social
factors, other endemic problems - environmental pollution, lowering
water tables, overpopulation, and annually declining arable acreage,
are also discussed.
Of importance to the world economy, the Chinese Government
announced last Spring that the yuan would never be devalued. But the
value of the yuan is maintained mostly by restrictive laws on
currency trading, and is under increasing pressure from economic
problems and dislocations discussed in the book. There are serious
economic imbalances, including excessive oversupply of consumer
goods, and strong indicators that the Chinese government may not be
able to keep its word.A devaluation of the yuan would set off another
wave of devaluations in Asia and affect world markets. (Recommend the
Book review 'The Great Leap Backward?' by Lin Binyan and Perry Link,
NY Rev. of Books, Oct 6, 98, p. 19)
- SPYMASTERS: Ten CIA Officers In Their Own Words, by Ralph Weber
(AFIO Board member, Professor at Marquette University), ISBN
0-8420-2714-9. A collection of interviews revealing perspectives on
covert operations and American foreign policy by senior CIA
officials. Includes recollections by Allen Dulles, Sidney Souers,
John McCone, William Colby, Ray Cline, Lyman Kirkpatrick, Samuel
Halpern, and Robert Armory, covering the relationships of CIA and
presidents during the most threatening decades of the Cold War. The
book was compiled by Ralph Weber, former CIA and NSA Scholar in
Residence, and will be available in November '98. (not reviewed; Roy
- NIGHT SOLDIERS, by Alan Furst, was discussed by Dr. Peter
Kassebaum at the September meeting of the AFIO Bay Area Chapter. The
novel traces the recruitment, training and eventual betrayal of a
group of young men of diverse cultural backgrounds (Soviet "marginal
men" - - Jews, Serbs, Poles, Bulgarians ...) who join the Soviet
Security apparatus (NKVD). The novel spans the period of 1934-45 and
captures the terror of the Stalin years, including the purging of the
Soviet Officer Corps and the Security Services, including the show
trials. It moves from Bulgaria and the Balkans to Mother Russia and
then onto Spain and the Spanish civil war, France and Siberia. What
is portrayed is a world in which betrayal is routine. Those who enjoy
the genre of the historical spy novel from the period set against a
backdrop of the Spanish Civil War and WW II in the Balkans would be
well served by this book. (Peter Kassebaum, College of Marin)
SECTION III - BULLETIN BOARD
NOTE: This WIN contains the latest updated information on the AFIO
Symposium and Convention. Please note that ALL OF THE SPEAKERS ARE
YOU CAN HELP by retransmitting the Symposium Agenda to other
"like-minded" associations or corporations to which you may belong,
or to individuals you know. They are invited to attend! Bring a guest
- US citizens are welcome.
Let me have your sugggestions on how we can "spread the word." WE
NEED YOUR HELP in "marketing" our Symposium!
5, 6 and 7 November 98 - AFIO National Symposium and
We have assembled a superb cast of eminent Symposium speakers - a
great opportunity for an update on a wide range of intelligence
activities, programs and plans.
NOTE the breakout between SYMPOSIUM and AFIO CONVENTION sessions.
This is so we can invite non-AFIO members to attend the Symposium, to
attract potential new members, to generate revenue, and to provide
wider access to a unique professional opportunity.
Please help spread the word! 'Constructively interested' US
citizens are invited to the Symposium, which is separately
The SYMPOSIUM sessions start Thursday 5 November 1 p.m
(Registration at 12:30). at the Tysons Corner Marriott, and continue
on Friday 6 November at CIA Headquarters.
This first Symposium session will concentrate on Security issues.
Session Chairman Ted Shackley (CIA ret), has lined up three
outstanding speakers (all confirmed) to address counterintelligence,
terrorism, executive kidnapping protection and Russian organized
crime, all most relevant topics (see below).
The SYMPOSIUM will continue on Friday 6 November at 0800 at CIA
The first session will be chaired by AFIO President Peter Earnest
The second session, chaired by LTG (USA ret) James Williams will
address technology challenges for intelligence, including
technological developments affecting intelligence capabilities,
methodologies, arts and crafts. Top drawer speakers will address the
topic (see below).
The CIA-hosted sessions will conclude with a Social Hour with hors
d'oevres and refreshments.
NOTE: CIA requires time to process Social Security Numbers for
admission - please register early!
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE POLICY AND TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM
THURSDAY 5 Nov. - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel,
1230 - 1600 - Symposium Session I Chairman: Ted Shackley (CIA
Taylor Lawrence - US Senate SSCI Staff Director -
Thomas Levering - Corporate Security Director - Executive
John Dziak - Professor - Russian Organized Crime
FRIDAY 6 Nov. CIA HEADQUARTERS, McLean, Va.
0700 - 1830 - Symposium Sessions II & III, and Social
Session II - Chairman Peter Earnest (CIA ret) - INTELLIGENCE
Hon. George Tenet - DCI - CIA and Intelligence Community Future
Hon. Porter Goss - US Congress, HPSCI Chairman - Blueprint for
Hon. Phyllis Oakley - Director INR - US Department of State -
Intelligence & Diplomacy
Session III Chairman: LTG James Williams (USA ret) 1100 - 1730
Hon. Keith Hall - Director NRO - US Overhead Reconnaissance
LGEN Kenneth Minihan - Director NSA - Cyber War Trends and
Mr. David Nokes - Director Sandia Laboratories/SARC - Emerging
Dr. John Wagner - Sandia National Laboratories - Breakthroughs in
Dr. H. T. Hawkins - Program Director, Los Alamos Laboratories -
Mr Gary Peters, Esq.- Dept Justice/ FINCEN - Int'l Financial Crime
1700 - 1800 - Social Hour. DCI invited to attend.
NOTE: All speakers are confirmed.
The Convention starts Thursday 5 November at 4 pm with a General
Membership Meeting at the Tysons Corner MARRIOTT Hotel (see below for
agenda) for members and associate members.
FOR THE FIRST TIME there will be an AFIO AWARDS ceremony at the
Banquet - by presenting the newly created DAVID ATLEE PHILLIPS Award
(for AFIO members or associate members who have made sustained
exceptional contributions to AFIO and its objectives), commemorating
the founder and first president of AFIO; and the General RICHARD
STILLWELL Award (for exceptional and sustained Chapter leadership
contributions to AFIO objectives by Chapter members and associate
members), commemorating the illustrious second President of AFIO.
Additionally there will be an Award to a high-profile JOURNALIST
for quality commentaries and balanced reporting on
intelligence-related matters in printed media. An eminent keynote
speaker will round out the Banquet proceedings.
The convention will also feature an informal "pay as you go"
breakfast at the Marriott Hotel on Saturday morning 0900 on 7
November, particularly for out-of-town members and associate members
with Officers, Directors, and Life Members.
AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION
Thursday 5 November 1600 - 2200 -Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel,
Leesburg Pike, Vienna
General Membership Meeting - AFIO President Peter Earnest
Briefing by Executive Director Roy Jonkers on the status and
progress of the Association.
Discussion with Members - President Peter Earnest
Board Meeting with Chapter Presidents - AFIO Board Chairman Bill
AFIO Awards Banquet. - Chairman: AFIO President Peter Earnest.
David Atlee Phillips Award
General William Stillwell Award
Honoring Life Members
Eminent Keynote Speaker
Dress - coat and tie.
Saturday 7 November 98 - 0830 at Tysons corner Marriott Hotel
Informal pay-as-you-go Breakfast with members of the AFIO Board of
directors and Executive Officers. Out-of-town members are
particularly invited. Let us know if you plan to attend this informal
Breakfast social meeeting.
Register Early! Let us know if you intend to attend - it helps us
with planning! Also - CIA requires time to process list of attendees
(with SSN's). Bring a guest! Spread the word!
Bring your spouse to the Banquet - the Tysons Corner shopping
malls are next door.
CONTRIBUTIONS / DONATIONS REQUIRED:
1) CONVENTION AND SYMPOSIUM combined package contribution/donation
- (including General Membership meeting, Reception, Banquet, Friday
lunch and Social Hour at CIA). - - - $225
2) SYMPOSIUM ONLY contribution/donation (Thursday 5 Nov 1 - 4pm,
Friday 6 Nov 8am - 6:30 pm) - (includes lunch and social hour) - - -
3) CONVENTION ONLY contribution (Thursday 4 PM - 10 PM), including
General Membership Meeting, Reception, Awards Banquet - -- $100.
HOTEL - Tysons Corner Marriott Hotel - 8028 Leesburg Pike, Vienna
Va - 703 734 3200. Ask for weekend rate. No bloc of rooms has been
set aside or reserved. RESERVE early! The front-desk rate quoted was
$ 84 per night.
SECTION III - BULLETIN BOARD
- AFIO MAIL ANNOUNCEMENT - AFIO members will receive a ballot for
Board of Directors and the new Bylaws, along with the Symposium
Agenda in the mail shortly.
To reiterate the reasons for Bylaws revision - (1) to follow legal
advice by our attorney, (2) to clarify the multitude of amendments,
(3) to bring the Bylaws in line with recent practice, and (4) to
empower the association and contribute to its viability. The Bylaws
were widely coordinated. The focal point for the new Bylaws is Sam
Halpern (CIA ret), AFIO Board of Directors.
It is important for the association that members return their
ballot and vote for both the slate of Directors and the Bylaws. We
trust you will give us your concurrence and your remarks, and look
forward to further constructive discussions at the Convention or by
The next edition of the INTELLIGENCER is ready and will follow
shortly after the above-mentioned ballot/ bylaws/ agenda mailing.
TAPS - Jim Quesada, former President of the Bay Area Chapter of
AFIO, recently passed away. He was a primary force in the development
of the membership of the Bay Area Chapter and encouraged its expanded
educational activities. Jim was a veteran of the US Army, with
service in Airborne and Special Force, retiring in 1968 with over 20
years of service, serving both as an NCO and as an Officer. In
addition he served with the CIA from 1968 until he again retired in
1982. Jim's activities with the Agency and many of his activities
with the military remain classified, but he received numerous
decorations. His life was dedicated to family and country and he
served as a constant reminder of what honor and duty is all about. He
will be missed by his family, friends, and the nation. We bid
farewell to a valued colleague. (ref. Peter Kassebaum)
- JOB WANTED - Former Career Special Operations Officer, with
twelve years experience as industry Systems Analyst, BS Engineering,
MS System Management, current TS/SCI clearances, member ARPA senior
working group, with recent experience with USSOCOM SOF baseline
master plan, counternarcotics stratergy, and low intensity conflict
logistics, available near-term. Tel 703 824 3271
-JOBS OFFERED - CIA advertises "The Ultimate International
Experience" in the clandestine service for extraordinary individuals
who want more than a job. Refer the qualified and the curious to
CIA's website at <www.odci.gov/cia> .
- NOTE - WIN re-transmission is not permitted without specific
concurrence by the WIN Editor, EXCEPT for individual single instances
for recruiting a new AFIO member.
- EVERY MEMBER RECRUIT (at least one) NEW MEMBER(S)!
Recruit a "buddy," friend or acquaintance - do your part for AFIO
and its objectives.
Get credit for sponsoring new members!
- NOTE: AFIO Associate Membership is open to US citizens who
subscribe to AFIO's principles and objectives - see AFIO's Homepage www.afio.com.
Let us know if you have a receptive prospect - we'll be pleased to
send you, him or her a membership application. We need new members to
keep AFIO healthy and on course - -
For back issues, updated periodically, see the AFIO Homepage www.afio.com.
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