AFIO SYMPOSIUM 5 and 6 November. Registration CLOSED -- symposium sold out to capacity. Thanks to all participants1
SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS
IMMIGRANT WHO (may have) ENTERED US ON CIA VISA ARRESTED. Ali Mohamed, 46, an Egyptian immigrant who served for three years as a sergeant in the US Army Special Forces at Ft Bragg, has been arrested and charged with joining the global campaign to attack Americans mounted by the Saudi exile Osama bin Laden. Mohamed had joined the Army shortly after arriving in this country in 1985 and was honorably discharged in 1989.
According to the Boston Globe, he entered the US on a special CIA visa program -- the CIA denies that. In his native Egypt, he reportedly graduated from a military academy and served from 1971 to 1984 as an officer in that country's army. While still in the US Army and since, he allegedly traveled to New York to training Moslem fundamentalists in explosives and other military skills. Mohamed is said to befluent in Arabic, Hebrew, English and French. http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/africa/103098terrorist-indict.html
CIA & THE WYE RIVER MIDEAST ACCORD. There has been a great deal of hoopla in the media over the CIA's role in the mideast peace agreement recently brokered at Wye River, MD. Much of that is fueled, in my opinion, by the media's ignorance of what the CIA (and the larger US Intelligence Community does and has always done). Another problem here is the media equates the CIA with all of US intelligence. Although the CIA Station Chief in Israel has a special diplomatic role in this agreement, much of what is being ascribed by the media to "the CIA" will in fact fall on the larger US Intelligence Community, including the CIA.
TREATY MONITORING. Beginning with SALT I and continuing with all subsequent arms control treaties between the US and the USSR (and the Russian Federation), treaty monitoring and verification was to be carried out by, in the language of those treaties, "national technical means," (NTM), a euphemism for technical intelligence -- primarily SIGINT, IMINT and MASINT. In practice of course, NTM was and is supplemented by HUMINT. NOTE: ABC News has an article on the intelligence sensors being used to "monitor" Serbian compliance with their agreement to withdraw from Kosovo. http://www.abcnews.com/sections/world/DailyNews/kosovospying981028.html
MIDEAST. Similarly, the Camp David Accords brokered by President Carter in 1977 specified monitoring by US intelligence. That treaty is very specific about arrangements for American U-2's to fly fly weekly reconnaissance missions over the Sinai in an operation that continues today. (The film "take" is shared with both Egypt and Israel.) Similarly, the 1977 Camp David treaty called for US monitors and an elaborate array of high tech US ground sensors to be positioned in the Sinai. Following the Gulf War in 1991, provisions were made for USAF operated United Nation's U-2's to monitor Iraq's weapons programs -- this surveillance also continues. In short, treaty monitoring has long been a main task of the US Intelligence Community -- Wye River is not new in this regard.
MONITORING vs VERIFICATION. Henry Kissinger made a great distinction between treaty monitoring and treaty verification, and that distinction has become a permanent part of the US policy process. That is, it is the role of intelligence to "monitor" what the other fellow (Soviets, etc) are doing and report that factual information to US policymakers. Period. It is then the policymakers' role to determine what is to be made of those facts -- ie, whether or not the observed activity is a treaty "violation" and what is to be done about it. That's "verification," and intelligence is to stay clear of such determinations. Although the details remain uncertain, the Wye accord may push US intelligence more towards the verification part of that dichotomy.
CIA DIPLOMACY. Part of the Wye River arrangement (which is actually very murky about what, exactly, the CIA is to do and which never mentions the CIA), is for the CIA to act as liaison and mediator between Israeli and PLO security services. Well, this is not new either. The NY Times carried a long story in September about how the CIA Chief of Station in Israel has been performing this function for at least the past year. Moreover, back in the 1970's and 1980's, when the PLO was considered by the US to be a terrorist organization and formal diplomatic contact was forbidden, it was one of the CIA's jobs to maintain a clandestine diplomatic relationship with Yassar Arafat. This too is something the CIA has done for decades and not just in the Middle East -- that is, keeping open secret lines of communication between the US govt and various "forbidden" factions.
IN SHORT, the role of the CIA (and US intelligence in general) is not much different in this agreement. SO WHAT WILL BE DONE? DCI George Tenet's column in the Oct 27th NY Times mostly says what won't be done. http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/oped/27tene.html
The C.I.A. is not interposing itself between two combatants. We are not placing officers inside the security operations of either side. We will not arrest or interrogate people or assume any other direct role on the ground. CIA officers will not serve as border guards or body guards.
Apparently, what the CIA is to do is to continue acting as liaison and mediator between the security services of Israel and the PLO. Why? Partly to facilitate interaction and information sharing between the two and partly to help determine if the two are in fact cooperating and doing their best to stop terrorism. That is to monitor and perhaps to verify the agreement. Is that good or bad? Well, it does put the CIA and the US on the spot regarding what has always been a very contentious issue -- whether or not the PLO is trying hard enough to arrest and suppress Arab terrorists. That's not so good. Nevertheless, it seems this was a necessary component in order to get an agreement, and that's good, in my view.
ROBERT GATES, former DCI, also argues, essentially, that the CIA's role in the Wye River mideast accord is nothing new. The CIA has a long history, Gates says, of helping to negotiate and then monitoring treaties. (jdmac) http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/oped/29gate.html
JONATHAN POLLARD. A troubling aspect of the Wye River accord is that President Clinton apparently found it necessary to agree to "review" the Pollard spy case. Many observers, myself among them, expect that Pollard, a former US Navy civilian intelligence analyst who has served 12 years of a life sentence for spying on behalf of Israel, will be released in the next year or so. It's probably a done deal. Of course the Pollard case has nothing to do with Israel and the PLO, but represents a quid pro quo extracted by Netanyahu from President Clinton. That Clinton, who in 1993 and again in 1996 rejected Israeli pleas on Pollard's behalf, felt he had to go along this time, is, in my view, a reflection of the strength of the Jewish-American lobby in this country as well as his desire (and that of all Americans) to achieve peace in the middle east.
Pollard betrayed his country from a position of trust, and there is strong resistance to his release in the intelligence and national security communities. He passed tens of thousands of highly classified documents to his Israeli handlers. How damaging was that to the US? Well, I don't know, but I expect we will be seeing a lot more leaks on this as the debate over Pollard heats up within the US government. Back in 1986, senior officials starting with Caspar Weinberger who was SecDef at the time, said it the damage was immense, "impossible to overstate." But no particulars or examples have ever emerged officially. In his 1991 book, "The Samson Option," Seymour Hersh wrote that Israel used the US intelligence information to target their nuclear deterrent forces on Soviet targets and to plan their 1985 raid on the PLO's headquarters in Tunisia -- neither of which were in the US interest. Worse, according to Hersh, Israel shared some of the US secrets with the Soviets in order to curry favor, including increased Jewish immigration from the USSR. (jdmac) http://www.theage.com.au:80/daily/981025/news/news22.html
SENIOR INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS. Washington Times reporter, Bill Gertz, who is famous (or infamous) for his sources inside the intelligence community had an interesting story in the Oct 30 paper. He writes that NSA Director, LtGen Ken Minihan (USAF), will definitely retire in March, and the DIA Director, LTG Patrick Hughes (USA), will probably retire in February. Also, MajGen John Casciano, USAF deputy for intelligence, will either retire or move up this spring. In short, there will be a "musical chairs" of SIO's in early 1999. The other senior Community position, DDCI, is occupied by LtGen Gordon (USAF) who has been in place only a year and who, by the way, is not an intelligence officer.
Leading contender for NSA is LTG Claudia Kennedy, Army DCSINT, who, according to Gertz, has strong backing from White House and Hillary Rodham Clinton. If Kennedy gets it, both the #1 and #2 (Barbara McNamara) at NSA will be women. Other NSA contenders are RADM Tom Lowell Jacoby, DNI, and RADM Tom Wilson, JCS(DIA)/J2. Among other tidbits, Gertz says that Minihan had requested a 1-year extension at NSA but was turned down; also, DIA Director Hughes was not informed about planning for recent cruise missile strikes in Sudan and Afghanistan. (jdmac) http://www.drudgereport.com/gertz.htm
MORE POLLARD. The same (10/30) issue of the Wash Times has a Reuters story about Jonathon Pollard. Amnon Dror, who formerly headed the "Public Committee for Jonathon Pollard, told Reuters that PM Netanyahu's Pollard ultimatum "fiasco" at Wye River had "seriously harmed Pollard's cause" by antagonizing administration officials. Shucks... (jdmac)
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE. ABC News (24Sep98), has a good article on this. A full 82 percent of companies with annual revenues of more than $10 billion now have an organized intelligence unit, according to a 1997 survey by The Futures Group, a competitive intelligence consultants. Does it work? Those with CI programs say yes. The former CEO of NutraSweet told an industry conference that CI was worth at least $50 million a year to his company. Companies with a lot of patents, or in fast-changing industries like pharmaceuticals, telecommunications or PC, find it particularly useful. (jdmac) <http://www.abcnews.com/sections/business/DailyNews/spy980924/index.html>
DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY (DTRA), the newest of DOD agencies and one with an intelligence-like mission, was established 1 Oct 1998. It's temporary headquarters is near Dulles Airport. DTRA is dedicated to reducing the threat to the United States and its allies from nuclear, chemical, biological, conventional and special weapons. Most of DTRA's 2,089 personnel were previously employed at organizations that merged to form the new agency.
Elements of the Office of the Secretary of Defense staff, the Defense Technology Security Administration, the Defense Special Weapons Agency and the On-Site Inspection Agency. DTRA executes technology security activities; cooperative threat reduction programs; arms control treaty monitoring and on-site inspection; force protection; nuclear, biological and chemical defense and counterproliferation. The Agency supports the U.S. nuclear deterrent and provides technical support on weapons of mass destruction matters to DOD. Dr. Jay Davis is the director of DTRA. The Agency's FY 99 budget is projected to be about $1.9 billion. See DTRA website at http://www.dtra.mil. (jdmac) <http://cnn.com:80/US/9810/01/PM-Pentagon-Nuclear.ap/index.html>
RUSSIA TO SUPPLY US NUKES? The administration is considering buying a key ingredient in every U.S. nuclear weapon, tritium gas, from an unlikely source: Russia. Gore supports the plan, sources say, because pumping dollars into the cash-starved Russian nuclear-weapons industry could keep Russia's scientists from defecting to rogue states. (jdmac) <http://www.newsweek.com:80/nw-srv/tnw/today/ps/ps0818_1.htm>
INTELLIGENCE JOBS. With the Cold War over and United States
intelligence agencies in flux, both the CIA and NSA are hiring. The
agencies are especially looking for people who can navigate the
internet and other networks. (jdmac)
IDEOLOGICAL SPIES. During the 1930's, 40's and 50's, most Americans who spied for the Soviet Union, like, for example, the Rosenbergs or Alger Hiss, were motivated by ideology -- they were communist "true believers." More recently, however, American traitors such as John Walker, Aldrich Ames and David Boone (see below), have been in it strictly for the money. Well, in a throwback to the 50's, a former campus radical who became a Pentagon lawyer and her husband were convicted of spying in a federal court last week. Theresa Squillacote, 40, and Kurt Stand, 43, of Washington, spied for the Soviets and East Germans. Prosecutors described the couple as dedicated communists who hated the US and were willing to spy for any country. Apparently, the spying went back 2 or more generations. In a statement to an FBI undercover agent, Ms Squillacote boasted that their efforts on behalf of the Soviet communism go back to 1918. (jdmac) http://www.phillynews.com:80/inquirer/98/Oct/24/national/SPY24.htm
ANOTHER SPY. David Sheldon Boone, an Army E-7 cryptologic traffic analyst, was financially strapped and disgruntled because of a pending divorce when he walked into the Soviet Embassy in Washington in 1988 and offered to sell a classified document, according to an FBI affidavit filed in Alexandria federal court last week. Boone was then assigned to NSA at Ft Meade, and he allegedly sold highly classified documents to the KGB, including information about U.S. nuclear targets in the Soviet Union. Boone, who served in the Army from October 1970 until his retirement in 1991, was living in Germany when he was lured back to this country and arrested by the FBI. During most of his military career, he was a signals intelligence analyst and was assigned to the Army SIGINT field station in Augsburg, Germany from 1974 to 1976, from 1979 to 1985, and again from 1988 until his retirement in 1991. (jdmac) http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-10/14/146l-101498-idx.html
MONICA'S SCI SECURITY CLEARANCE. In an article about a GAO report that faults the government's security clearance process, Vernon Loeb, the Washington Post's new intelligence reporter (<firstname.lastname@example.org>), has some interesting tidbits. Among other things, Loeb reports that David Griffith, a former NSA analyst, together with his wife pleaded guilty to "failing to return classified information after they left government service." The article also explains the SCI system and mentions that Monica Lewinsky was granted SCI clearance for her job in the Pentagon public affairs office. (jdmac) http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-10/27/050l-102798-idx.html
PENTAGON HACKERS. A new Pentagon investigative unit, the Defense Information Infrastructure Intrusion Investigations Team (DI4T), will train 80 agents across the country to track down those who commit computer crimes against Pentagon agencies. The team works for the Defense Criminal Investigative Service (DCIS), the law-enforcement arm of the Pentagons Inspector General.
THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET MILITARY, by William E. Odom, Yale University Press, Nov 1998 480pp. Dr Odom (LTG, USA-ret) is a former Director of NSA. ISBN: 0300074697
NEW MOVIE: "Enemy of the State," to be released Nov 20 by Disney/Touchstone with a budget in excess of $100 million features Gene Hackman and Will Smith. It's a political techno thriller based in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. The plot involves Will Smith as character Dean, an innocent attorney, targeted by a rogue agent of the NSA. The rogue NSA agent is trying to recover evidence unknowingly in Dean's custody of government conspiracy in an assassination. Gene Hackman, as character Brill, is a former NSA agent now working independently in private intelligence. Brill befriends Dean and helps Dean evade NSA surveillance. The two of them turn tables on the NSA, surveilling them in return, with surprising results in the end. You will see a lot of shooting, spying, bugging, buildings blowing up, and more. To share any further might spoil the movie! (Submitted by AFIO member Steve Uhrig of SWS Security who served as technical advisor for the film and who made much of the technical surveillance gadgetry on display in the movie.) http://www.swssec.com/
BOSNIA & THE BALKANS WEB SITES. (jdmac)
VIETNAM. Although not about intelligence, AFIO members may be interested in a new book, VIETNAM SHADOWS: THE WAR, ITS GHOSTS AND ITS LEGACY, by Arnold Isaacs, Johns Hopkins U Press, 1997, 199 pages. Isaacs reported from Vietnam for the Baltimore Sun from 1972 to 1975 and has written two previous books about the war. Since 1984, he has taught a popular course on the war at Towson University in Maryland. The book, which is remarkably even handed about what is still a very controversial subject in this country, focuses on how Vietnam changed America. That is, it's not really about the war; instead it's about the so called "Vietnam syndrome" that still influences US foreign policy, about the Vietnam generation and the counter culture movement, Vietnam veterans, the Wall, and what Isaacs calls "The Myth" that MIA's are still being held in Vietnam. It's also about Vietnam today (an impoverished police state) and how Vietnamese and other southeast Asia refugees are doing in this country. Highly recommended. (jdmac)
KOSOVO. ABC News has an article on the intelligence sensors being used to "monitor" Serbian compliance with their agreement to withdraw from Kosovo. http://www.abcnews.com/sections/world/DailyNews/kosovospying981028.html
"ECHELON." According to European media and numerous conspiracist
postings, "Echelon" is the code name of a global SIGINT system of
near mythical capabilities that is alleged to be jointly operated by
NSA and the British GCHQ and, supposedly, is tapping into all our
phones and e-mail, etc. The web pages below give a flavor of how
some conspiracy folks view NSA.
OLIVER STONE. Here we go again! ABC TV has given Oliver Stone a contract to develop a prime time special on the crash of TWA Flight 800. (I think I've read somewhere else that the creator of the movie, "JFK," which blamed the CIA and the Pentagon for assassinating President Kennedy, is also working on a movie about "CIA cocaine dealing in Los Angeles." The only good news here is that the ABC News Division has protested (without success) the TWA 800 contract because they are afraid any relationship between ABC Television and Oliver Stone will discredit ABC News even though the News Division has nothing to do with this special. They are probably right about that... (jdmac) http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/oped/02gree.html
DO YOU TEACH AN INTELLIGENCE COURSE? (Or know someone who does?) If so, both the DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) and the academic journal, "Intelligence and National Security" would like to get in touch with you (or them).
THE JMIC is planning a June 18, 1999 conference in Washington with the theme teaching intelligence and national security studies at the graduate and undergraduate level. The College is part of DIA and is certified and accredited to grant undergraduate and graduate degrees in strategic intelligence. The JMIC has issued a "call for papers" on the subject of teaching intelligence (abstracts due by Dec 31). The JMIC ,will provide travel funds for 4 chosen paper presenters and papers will be published in concert with the 1999 Conference. Those who teach or are interested in teaching about intelligence and national security should contact the conference organizer, LTC Kevin Johnson, at (202) 231-4173 or at <email@example.com> to be placed on the conference mailing list.
JOURNAL OF "INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY." Meredith Hindley at American University in Washington, DC is spear-heading a effort to put together a comprehensive, worldwide list of courses on intelligence. There are plans to put the list on a journal sponsored website, along with links to online resources for teaching intelligence. To have your class(es) included on the list, please contact Meredith Hindley at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Lists events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars. NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, <email@example.com>
Nov 5-7, Washington. AFIO National Symposium and Convention (unclassified and SOLD OUT, sorry), SYMPOSIUM starts at the Tyson's Marriott Hotel at 1pm with sessions on security intelligence and terrorism, followed by CONVENTION General membership meeting at 4 pm, then a RECEPTION and Awards BANQUET.
All day Friday at CIA Headquarters will be more Symposium sessions on current and future challenges with an emphasis on intelligence policy and technology winding up with a social hour at CIA, 5-6pm. Speakers include DCI, Hon. Porter Goss, Hon. Keith Hall, LtGen Kenneth Minihan and other eminent intelligence and technology leaders.
SATURDAY, 0830 Informal No-Host CONVENTION Breakfast Session with members of the AFIO Board of directors and Executive Officers (703) 790-0320, http://www.his.com/afio. (Sorry, SOLD OUT)
Nov 9, Washington. NMIA Defense Intelligence Status (DIS 98), Tysons Corner Marriott. (301) 840-6642, http://www.nmia.org
Nov 10, Washington. NMIA/OPS Counterintelligence (CI 98) Symposium, Tysons Corner Marriott. (301) 840-6642, http://www.nmia.org
Nov 11, El Paso, TX. Monthly meeting of the Southwest Chapter of NMIA, 6pm Chris's BBQ Restaurant, 564-0109 / firstname.lastname@example.org
Nov 11-12, Washington. PCIC Fall '98, Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community Symposium (intelligence job fair), Tyson's Corner Marriott. http://www.pcic.net
Nov 11-12, Washington. Jane's Information Group will hold the conference, "SPACE: Market Forces, Security Concerns." http://conference.janes.com / 1-800-824-0768
Nov 12-13, Washington. ABA Standing Committee on Law & National Security annual review conference. (202) 662-1035; <email@example.com>
Nov 18 &19, Huntsville, Al. 1998 Regional OPSEC Symposium, hosted by the Interagency OPSEC Support Staff (IOSS), the OPSEC Professionals Society (OPS) and the Defense Security Service. Some sessions classified http://www.opsec.org/98regional.htm / 301-982-0323 / 301-840-8502
Dec 1-2-3, Fairfax, VA. AFCEA's Professional Development Center course: "The US Intelligence Community: Who Does what, With what, for What." Classified Secret - US Only. For registration call: (703) 631-6135.
Dec 7-8, Monterey, CA. PacIntel '98 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700
Dec 9 & 10, San Antonio, TX. 1998 Regional OPSEC Symposium, hosted by the Interagency OPSEC Support Staff (IOSS), the OPSEC Professionals Society (OPS) and the AF Info Warfare Center. Some sessions classified. http://www.opsec.org/98regional.htm / 301-982-0323 / 301-840-8502
NEXT YEAR 1999
JAN 11, AFIO Winter Luncheon. Morning speaker (1030) plus luncheon speaker. (703)790-0320, http://www.his.com/afio.
JAN 19-21, Washington. Conference on "The Applications of Remote Sensing and GIS for Disaster Management." GWU Marvin Center
FEB 16-20, 1999, Washington. ISA Convention. This is the premier forum for intelligence scholars. http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/washington/
MAR 8-9, NMIA's Symposium, "MASINT Support to the Warfighter", 8-9 March 1999, Chantilly, VA. Classification level: SECRET.
MAR 10-12, The Hague, Netherlands. EuroIntel '99 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700
MAR 21-25, 1999. Washington. National OPSEC Conference, Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.opsec.org / 301.548.1018.
MAR 24-25, Washington. Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community (PCIC) Symposium (job fair), at March 24-25, 1999 at Radisson Plaza Hotel at Mark Center, Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.pcic.net
MAY 21, NMIA's Information Operations '99 and the NMIA Annual Awards Banquet are tentatively scheduled for 21 May at the Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. (301) 840-6642, http://www.nmia.org
MAY 24-26, Washington. OSS '99, http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700
JUNE 18, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) will sponsor a conference on "Teaching Intelligence in Colleges & Universities." Contact LTC Kevin Johnson. <firstname.lastname@example.org>
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