SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS
AFIO ANNUAL SYMPOSIUM, Nov 5&6. AFIO's Symposium held at the Tyson's
Center Marriott on Thursday and at CIA Hq on Friday was probably the best ever. The star-studded speaker list included the DCI as well as the Directors of NSA, NRO and INR. AFIO hopes to have videotapes and/or transcripts available for Chapter and AEP professor use. The meeting was "not for attribution," but I will list some of the interesting "tidbits" I heard, below. On Nov 9th I also attended the NMIA DIS Symposium -- tidbits from that meeting are also included. Many of these "tidbits" are not new -- they have come up again and again at similar public symposia and some of those are also listed below.
- biggest problem facing the Intelligence Community is lack of public understanding and support -- no constituency.
- MASINT (Measurement and Signature Intelligence) will become the most important of the collection disciplines -- especially for detection of proliferation of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons
- SIGINT, long the most productive of the INT's, will sink, in a relative sense, to last place among the INT's, according to one speaker. It faces hard times because new technologies (fiber optics, encryption, e-mail, cel phones, etc) pose a variety of technical challenges. Nevertheless, SIGINT is still important enough to consume about half of intelligence spending
- IMINT: Only one more "big sat" left -- after that it will be new, post-Cold War "small sats." US imagery advantage soon to go away as many other states as well as US and foreign businesses will be launching hi resolution imaging satellites
- HUMINT: DO officers need more training, tools.
- PERSONNEL: After several years of drawdown, the CIA and other agencies are hiring again. Skill needs are changing, and while intelligence hires formerly came primarily from history and political science backgrounds, future hiring will favor economists, engineers and scientists -- that applies especially to DO case officers. Also, CIA needs to find ways to promote both analysts and case officers without having to make managers of them. (About drawdown -- Army intelligence has been reduced by 41% since 1990, and NSA is down 1/3 since 1985. Navy intelligence, on the other hand, has held constant.)
- Russia is becoming a "criminal state"
- the IC is seeking to set up "reserve corps" that can handle crisis surge needs
- "Force Protection" has become a major intelligence mission. That is, providing warning of any and all possible threats to safety of deployed military personnel in Bosnia and elsewhere
- DCI, some say, needs more authority over DOD intel
- "Information Warfare" is on every speaker's mind -- intelligence to play a big role but US Govt approach still in flux. "Information assurance" is another buzzword often heard at these meetings -- relates to opsec. Still another buzzword -- "asymmetrical warfare" -- the idea that future foes will not try to attack our strength as Saddam Hussein did (ie, with conventional military forces). Instead they will attack our weaknesses through information warfare or terrorism, both of which raise the importance of intelligence. Yet another of those Pentagon buzzwords that imply greater importance for intelligence: "Dominant Battlefield Awareness."
- ASIM, the Automated Security Incident Measurement System, was deployed in 1993 and searches DOD computer systems for harmful information warfare type attacks (I&W of the next century)
- new "nano technologies" of the future could lead to tiny, robotic, self-propelled sensors smaller than a deck of cards (some smaller than a quarter) that might be air dropped in "packs" to seek out things like anthrax or nerve agent depots
- also, exotic future artificial intelligence computer software developments ("neural networks") may take much of the load off human intelligence analysts
- the Treasury Dept has a new intelligence clearing house called FINCEN, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Center, that sifts through reams of financial transactions worldwide looking for evidence of money laundering
- the high rate of deployment of the US military in recent years, the so called "optempo" problem, is hitting intelligence personnel particularly hard
- The AF is (finally) buying a reconnaissance pod for the F-16 as well as more and more Predator UAV's. U-2's being upgraded
- after the Gulf War, intelligence consumers complained about lack of inter connectivity between intelligence systems (AF U-2's couldn't downlink to Navy ships and various imagery systems couldn't communicate with each other). Also, sensors were inadequate to find scuds. Those problems have largely been fixed a couple speakers said. Now the biggest problem was depth and breadth of analytical talent.
- FINALLY, I saw something I haven't noticed at these conferences before. That is, the DCI logo, rather than the CIA logo, was prominently displayed -- even at CIA. For that matter, I never realized there was a DCI logo. See it at, <http://www.odci.gov/ic/index.html>
DCI THREATENED TO RESIGN OVER POLLARD. According to the NY Times,
George Tenet told President Clinton he would have to resign if the
President agreed to Israel's demand at the Wye River negotiations.
Bill Gertz had a complete retrospective on the Pollard in the Nov 16
Washington Times. Among other things, he wrote that Pollard had
provided Israel with (1) US communication codes; (2) targeting data
so Israel could target its nuclear weapons on the Soviet Union; (3)
thousands of highly sensitive reports that revealed sources and
methods including human agents; (4) an especially sensitive SIGINT
source the US was then using to monitor Israeli nuclear assistance to
South Africa. Gertz also wrote that Pollard's wife had shared some
classified documents with Chinese embassy officials to help her
secure a job. Although not mentioned by Gertz, other press reports
have claimed Israel is believed to have shared some of the material
with the Soviets in order to facilitate the Jewish emigration from
NATO SPY TIPPED OFF SERBS. A French army officer provided far
more sensitive information than is being publicly admitted, French
media said, citing a confidential report on his interrogation. The
daily Le Monde and Europe 1 radio quoted a secret report by the DST
counter-intelligence agency saying Major Pierre Bunel divulged a
25-page plan for possible NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia
designed to resolve the Kosovo crisis. It said Bunel, now under
arrest in Paris, had admitted the charges, saying he had acted out of
JAPANESE SPY SATELLITES. Japan may be getting into the spy satellite business. A Japanese newspaper (Asahi) says the Tokyo government has come up with a plan to develop four spy satellites by 2002. The estimated cost, from government sources-- 1.3 billion dollars. The plan is a response to the firing of a North Korean rocket back in August. With no missile-detecting system, Tokyo did not know that North Korea had fired the rocket that crossed over Japan -- until it heard from the US military.
COMMERCIAL IMAGERY. NIMA, the National Imagery and Mapping Agency, recently announced they would be spending $100 million over 5 years, or about $20 million a year, to purchase commercial imagery for use by the Intelligence Community. Among the photographic products that could be purchased from commercial sources are 1- meter resolution black and white, or panchromatic, images; 4-meter color or multispectral images; and 10+ meter hyperspectral images. Several high resolution commercial imagery satellites are scheduled for launch over the next few years, beginning with Space Imaging's IKONOS-1 in December. Still to be worked out between the US government and the commercial remote sensing industry are guidelines outlining under what circumstances the government will exercise "shutter control," or restrict certain imagery. This would be to prevent potential adversaries from gaining intelligence that could pose risks to US national security. Robert Steele of Open Source Solutions (OSS, <http://www.oss.net>) comments that at least $250 million PER YEAR is what's really needed and thus the NIMA announcement, in Steele's view, is almost a rejection of commercial imagery by the IC.
ISRAELI'S SPIES IN CYPRUS? The Cypriot government has arrested two Israeli's they believe to be Mossad officers who were in Cyprus, the government says, spying on the Cypriot National Guard. Because of the Turkish-Israel military relationship, it's assumed Israel was spying on behalf of their ally, Turkey. <http://www.herald.com:80/world/digdocs/037978.html>
CHINESE ANTI-SATELLITE TECHNOLOGY. China may now be able to use lasers to damage sensors on orbiting spy satellites and is acquiring a variety of foreign technologies that could be used to develop anti-satellite capabilities, a Pentagon report has found. China's military also is actively exploring the use of information warfare and electronic weapons as it reshapes the giant but antiquated Peoples Liberation Army into a modern force designed to fight "local war under high tech conditions," the report said. <http://www.insidechina.com:80/china/news/98110416.html>
INTELLIGENCE VITAL TO KOSOVO DEAL. NATO Commander GEN Wesley Clark and
Yugoslavian Army chief Gen Momcilo Perisic signed an Oct 15 agreement that specifies parameters of NATO intelligence surveillance aircraft flights over Kosovo. Monitoring will be carried out by American U-2's and Predator UAV's as well as other aircraft. The agreement gives NATO control of airspace over Kosovo as well as a 40km surrounding zone. (See item below) <http://jdw.janes.com/>
NAVY SUBMARINE HUNTERS OVER KOSOVO. The US Navy's Mediterranean-based P-3C Orions began flying daily surveillance missions over Kosovo Nov 1 to support the NATO air verification agreement there. The flights are at the request of US European and NATO commanders. The mission requires the aircraft's robust surveillance package and 10- to 12-hour unrefueled range to provide an airborne "eye-in-the-sky" for the verification commanders. Flying from U.S. Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy, aircrews are using Synthetic Aperture Radar and the Electro-Optical Camera System to provide NATO commanders with real-time video and radar images of the situation on the ground in Kosovo. These systems give the aircraft an all-weather, day or night surveillance capability. A real-time down-link system and advanced communications suite allow ground commanders in remote locations instantaneous access to the information gathered by the crew. The aircrews can "see" targets on the ground with startling clarity. For intelligence purposes, it is camera-quality imagery, down-linked in real-time and available instantly on any battlefield commander's desktop computer. The information is gathered while the aircraft flies well out of the range of any expected ground fire. http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/news/navnews/Navnews.txt
OLD LIE: US USED BIOLOGICAL AGENTS IN KOREA. In 1952, North Korea, with assistance from China and Russia, infected two unfortunate and condemned criminals with bubonic plague in an elaborate effort in to convince the world that America had used germ warfare in the Korean conflict. Tissue samples from the two dead prisoners were used to fool international investigators. To this day, some scholars have believed the charges. But documents from Russia's Presidential Archive finally prove, more than four decades after the fact, that the United States was the victim of a disinformation campaign scripted by North Korea, China, and the Soviet Union. <http://www.usnews.com:80/usnews/issue/981116/16kore.htm>
INTELLIGENCE COUP: CIA OBTAINED STASI/HRC FILES. Washington Post reporter Walter Pincus had a story in the Nov 22 Post about "Operation Rosewood," by which the CIA managed to obtain the complete files of the HVA, the foreign intelligence arm of East Germany's Stasi organization. The files contain the names of hundreds of West Germans and others, including some Americans, who spied for East Germany and/or the Soviets during the Cold War. Some government officials have referred to this as "the CIA's greatest triumph." Just how it was carried out remains secret.
The FBI used the HVA files in the recent conviction of Theresa
Squillacote, a 1960's campus radical who, along with Kurt Stand, grew
up to be a spy for the Soviets, for East Germany and also for
South Africa. Convicted of espionage in 1998. Unlike almost all
other espionage cases in the past 40 years, Squillacote and Stand
seem to have been motivated by ideology -- Marxism and hatred for
America, rather than money.
GRU's 80th BIRTHDAY. Russia's GRU military espionage service
marked its 80th anniversary on 5 Nov, still smarting over Stalin's
paranoid failure to heed its warnings about Nazi invasion plans and
now facing a more prosaic lack of funds.
OLIVER STONE UPDATE. We previously reported that ABC had contracted with conspriacy-film-maker Oliver Stone ("JFK") to produce a prime time special on the "shootdown" of TWA Flight 800. Well, protests from the ABC News Bureau, which would have had nothing to do with the special but rightly feared that it would discredit them, worked. ABC has canceled the program. Which does not mean Oliver Stone won't find another outlet for such a film.
UNDERSEA ESPIONAGE. A new book (Sherry Sontag & Christopher Drew, BLIND MAN'S BLUFF, Public Affairs Press, 1998) provides great detail on what has heretofore had been very close hold operations -- the use of US Navy submarines for espionage missions during the Cold War. The Navy is unhappy about the book's publication and will not comment on it. http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/news/national/spy-book.html
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE ARTICLE. Mark Lowenthal, Director of OSS and former Staff Director of the HPSCI as well as former Deputy Asst Secretary of State for Intelligence, has written the best article on open source intelligence I've ever seen. You can read it at: http://www.defensedaily.com/reports/osintmyths.htm
NEW VIETNAM MEMORIAL Web site can be found at: http://www.thevirtualwall.org
DO YOU TEACH AN INTELLIGENCE COURSE? (Or know someone who does?) If
so, both the DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) and the academic journal, "Intelligence and National Security" would like to get in touch with you (or them). THE JMIC is planning a June 18, 1999 conference in Washington with the theme teaching intelligence and national security studies at the graduate and undergraduate level. The College is part of DIA and is certified and accredited to grant undergraduate and graduate degrees in strategic intelligence. The JMIC has issued a "call for papers" on the subject of teaching intelligence (abstracts due by Dec 31). The JMIC will provide travel funds for 4 chosen paper presenters and papers will be published in concert with the 1999 Conference. Those who teach or are interested in teaching about intelligence and national security should contact the conference organizer, LTC Kevin Johnson, at (202) 231-4173 or at <firstname.lastname@example.org> to be placed on the conference mailing list.
JOURNAL OF "INTELLIGENCE AND NATIONAL SECURITY." Meredith Hindley at
American University in Washington, DC is spear-heading a effort to put together a comprehensive, worldwide list of courses on intelligence. There are plans to put the list on a journal sponsored website, along with links to online resources for teaching intelligence. To have your class(es) included on the list, please contact Meredith Hindley at email@example.com.
Lists events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars. NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, <firstname.lastname@example.org>
Dec 1-2-3, Fairfax, VA. AFCEA's Professional Development Center course:
"The US Intelligence Community: Who Does what, With what, for What." Classified Secret - US Only. For registration call: (703) 631-6135.
Dec 7-8, Monterey, CA. PacIntel '98 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700
Dec 9 & 10, San Antonio, TX. 1998 Regional OPSEC Symposium, hosted by the Interagency OPSEC Support Staff (IOSS), the OPSEC Professionals Society (OPS) and the AF Info Warfare Center. Some sessions classified. http://www.opsec.org/98regional.htm / 301-982-0323 / 301-840-8502
NEXT YEAR 1999
JAN 11, AFIO Winter Luncheon. Morning speaker (1030) GUS RUSSO, author of Live By The Sword: The Secrret War Against Castro and the Death of JFK. Russo is an investigative reporter who has sought to compile a credible account of President Kennedy's assassination for over twenty years. Luncheon speaker. MILT BEARDEN, former CIA Chief of Station in Pakistan and a central figure in clandestine support of the Afghan rebel war against the Soviets, a struggle reflected in his superb novel, "The Black Tulip," will speak on "Afghanistan: Consequences, Myths and Reality." (703)790-0320, http://www.his.com/afio.
JAN 19-21, 1999. Washington. Conference on "The Applications of Remote Sensing and GIS for Disaster Management." GWU Marvin Center
FEB 16-20, 1999, Washington. ISA Convention. This is the premier forum for intelligence scholars. http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/washington/
MAR 8-9, Chantilly, VA. NMIA's Symposium, "MASINT Support to the Warfighter", NRO Conference Center, Chantilly, VA. Classification level: SECRET.
MAR 10-12, The Hague, Netherlands. EuroIntel '99 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700
MAR 21-25, 1999. Washington. National OPSEC Conference, Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.opsec.org / 301.548.1018.
MAR 24-25, Washington. Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community (PCIC) Symposium (job fair), at 1999 at Radisson Plaza Hotel at Mark Center, Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.pcic.net
MAY 21, NMIA's Information Operations '99 and the NMIA Annual Awards Banquet are tentatively scheduled for 21 May at the Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. (301) 840-6642, http://www.nmia.org
MAY 24-26, Washington. OSS '99, http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700
JUNE 18, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) will sponsor a conference on "Teaching Intelligence in Colleges & Universities." Contact LTC Kevin Johnson. <email@example.com>
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