AFIO Intelligence Notes Issue 47

7 December 1998

(This AFIO WIN was prepared by John Macartney, <jdmac@erols.com>)
SECTION I - INTELLIGENCE COMMENTARIES & BRIEFS

DIGITAL MAP LIMITS SENT TOMAHAWKS AWRY. Some of the US Tomahawk cruise missiles launched against Sudan and Afghanistan in August missed their targets by as much as 100 meters, a U.S. Navy source said. He cited problems with digital map data [which is supplied by the Intelligence Community], and the fact that only about 10 percent of the world is so covered. As a result, the source said, "They struck nothing but dirt at the end of that hit." Defense News On Line, Nov 23-29

NAVY INTELLIGENCE CHANGES. The Director of Naval Intelligence, VADM Lowell Jacoby, told Defense News that Navy intelligence would be shifting priorities from nations who are purchasing advanced naval weapons systems to the 10 countries including Britain, France and Russia that are developing and exporting the same. Asked if that meant the Navy would be spying more on friends, ADM Jacoby said most of that info is available from open sources in company sales brochures and arms fair exhibits. ADM Jacoby also said that Office of Naval Intelligence had been downsized 27% since the Cold War and that he was planning on more "outsourcing" to government laboratories or commercial industry, primarily in the areas of technology assessment and information systems management. Source: Defense News, Nov30 - Dec6.

CIA LEAK TO HUGHES? On Dec 5, both the NY Times and the Washington Post ran stories claiming that officials of Hughes Electronics had been warned by the CIA that they would be called to testify before Congress on the sale of satellite technology to China. Don't know what to make of this. May be no big deal or it may indicate something is going on (because story appeared simultaneously in both papers). http://search.nytimes.com/search/daily/bin/fastweb?getdoc+site+iib-site+111+0+wA

AA+cia http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-12/05/063l-120598-idx.html

POLLARD UPDATE. At the climax of the Wye River negotiations last month, Israeli President Netanyahu demanded that Israeli spy and former US Navy civilian intelligence analyst by released from prison where he has served 13 years of life sentence for espionage -- prompting a threat from DCI George Tenet that he might have to resign if Pollard was released. Subsequently, Israeli sources said that Clinton did in fact promise to release Pollard.

President Clinton, on the other hand, says all he did was promise to review the matter. Again. At the request of Israel and under pressure from American Jewish groups, Clinton has already twice reviewed the Pollard matter -- in 1993 and 1996. Both times he decided to leave Pollard in the slammer. This time the review is being managed by the White House, a departure from the norm where the Justice Department manages such reviews. Some observers say that arrangement probably means "the fix is in" -- that is, Pollard will be released. In any event, the White House has called on DOD, Justice, State and the Intelligence Community to submit their views on the matter by Jan 11. After that, the President will decide. [This may depend on whether Israel is seen as carrying out the Wye agreement. - -Macartney, ed] http://cnn.com:80/US/9812/03/pollard.01/

MASSIVE LEAK OF CLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS. Matt Drudge, the young and controversial on-line journalist, reported last week that there has been the most massive leak of classified foreign policy documents since the Pentagon papers. According to Drudge more than 20,000 pages of documents have been obtained by reporter Murray Waas, who is said to be "bitterly angry" over the leak regarding the leak. The documents apparently include:

- the secret 1994 negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea over that country's nuclear weapons program.

- intelligence and policy failures that led to the detonations of nuclear weapons by India and Pakistan this year.

- the papers apparently corroborate allegations by a former UN arms inspector that the Clinton administration concealed from Congress and the public details regarding Saddam Hussein's ambitious program to develop nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons.

- new details on the Clinton policy towards China in which the White House allowed ballistic missile technology exports to China at the behest of wealthy Democratic campaign contributors.

It is not clear, according to Drudge, when or if Waas will begin to unload from his treasure trove of classified foreign policy materials. http://www.drudgereport.com/matt.htm

JAPANESE RECONNAISSANCE SATELLITES. Earlier this month the Japanese government approved plans to build and launch four intelligence satellites. The first two satellites would be optical with one meter resolution and the other two would provide synthetic aperture radar all-weather imagery. Since US intelligence knew beforehand about the recent North Korean missile test -- which crossed Japanese airspace -- and did not warn Japan, and since the US has forbidden two-meter or better resolution imagery of Israel, Japan apparently will not be relying on the US for its spy satellites. France is the only other viable choice around. The Japanese satellite competition is reportedly between Aerospatiale and Lockheed Martin, "with a wild card in the deck". If either Aerospatiale or Lockheed Martin build a spy satellite for China, Japan will not hire them for the same job. This means the Japanese spy sats are not squarely in the lap of either France or the US, which makes for a more "interesting" France-US confrontation in that corner of the world. Source: "Intelligence" online newsletter, Nov 16 http://www.blythe.org/Intelligence>

INTERNATIONAL ENCRYPTION AGREEMENT. For over a decade, there has been a running dispute between the US Government, mainly NSA and FBI, on the one hand, and software manufacturers on the other. The issue is whether or not commercial software could include high order, virtually unbreakable encryption technology. Since there are constitutional implications about the "privacy rights" of US citizens, the controversy surrounded approval for export. High order encryption has been available in this country for US citizens for some time. The Reagan and Bush Administrations passed on to President Clinton the "Clipper Chip" plan, which allowed export only if a "back door" key was held in escrow by the US government -- so that the encryption could later be broken with a court order. Software manufactures rebelled against that, arguing that no one, especially foreigners, would want to buy encryption to which the US government holds a key. The "back door" key idea was scotched, but he battle has continued over the number of bits, and therefore the difficulty, of the encryption algorithm . Last week, it took the form of an international agreement of the Wassenar Group, signed by the US, Japan, Britain, Russia and Australia. Basically, the agreement allows for export of 64-bit encryption algorithms. That's a relaxation of current US policy which allows 56-bit. At the same time, the agreement provides that there can be no restraints on encryption used to protect entertainment products such as video transmissions. Two active exporters of encryption technology are missing from that list -- China and Israel. http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-12/04/052l-120498-idx.html

NORTH KOREAN MISSILE LAUNCH EXPECTED. A Dec 3 Bill Gertz article in the Washington Times said that, according to a US intelligence official, North Korea is preparing for a second test launch of its long-range Taepo Dong missile. The first flight test took place Aug 31 and set off alarms in Japan after the 3-stage missile flew over the northern part of the island chain. That Taepo Dong launch caught US intelligence by surprise because it was not expected to have a third stage, which was part of an attempt to place a small satellite into orbit. The payload broke apart minutes before it was to reach orbiting height. http://www.drudgereport.com/gertz.htm

CHINESE ANTI-SATELLITE LASER. The Chinese government may be building a powerful anti-satellite laser, perhaps with the help of Russian scientists, that could threaten US military intelligence and communications satellites. The Pentagon, meanwhile, denies the report. <http://www.herald.com:80/world/digdocs/042163.htm>

http://www.wired.com:80/news/news/technology/story/16534.html

SECTION II - BOOKS, PUBLICATIONS & OTHER SOURCES

TOP SECRET INTRANET, by Fredrick Thomas Martin, Prentice Hall, 1998, 400 pages. ISBN: 0130808989 ($28 from amazon.com) This book by a former NSA official tells about the development and success of INTELINK, the Intelligence Community's "classified internet" which became operational in 1994. Some 50,000 analysts and consumers now have access via terminals in over a 100 different SCIF facilities worldwide, from the White House to Congress to the Persian Gulf. It has truly revolutionized intelligence distribution, as consumers now surf the classified net and "pull," or download, the intelligence information they need instead of waiting for printed copies to be "pushed" to their in baskets. Both imagery and COMINT hits are available on Intelink, which is headquartered at Ft Meade and is updated continuously 24 hours a day. While there is no chance that outside hackers could get into this top secret (and, presumably, codeword) stuff, there are nevertheless security concerns. Why? Because it essentially ends "compartmentation"-- an internal "mole" with access to Intelink, would be able to pull down and compromise materials that had nothing to do with his or her job. Vernon Loeb had a good article on all this in the Dec 1, 1998 Washington Post. http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1998-12/01/038l-120198-idx.html

ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE. Although I had read recommendations in the "Report of the 20th Century Fund Task Force on the Future of US Intelligence" when it was issued in 1996, I recently got my hands on the published volume. IN FROM THE COLD, Background Papers by Allan Goodman, Gregory Treverton and Philip Zelikow, Twentieth Century Fund Press, ISBN: 0870783920 ($8 from amazon.com). The three monograph sized articles are excellent, especially the one by Zelikow, "American Intelligence and the World Economy." Indeed, it is the best reading I know of on that subject. It differentiates between economic intelligence and "industrial espionage," traces the history since the 1950's of economic intelligence at the CIA as well as INR, Treasury and Commerce, explains the interaction between those departments and agencies as well as USTR and other consumers of global economic information, and offers several case studies. I recommend it.

CHEM-BIO: FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS, Tempest Publishing, ISBN: 0-9665437-1-8. This 164 page, $18 book by AFIO Member Alec Chambers (<jchambers@cas.org>) and Stanley Roberts is in Q&A format and is aimed at people such as emergency personnel and their managers, journalists and reporters and others lacking a strong technical background who may need to deal with the topic at short notice. http://www.chem-bio.com/

ALDRICH AMES TV MOVIE, INTERVIEW & INTELLIGENCE DOCUMENTARY. On Sunday night, Nov 29, the Showtime Channel aired a rather good made for TV movie about the Aldrich Ames espionage case. That was followed by a 25 minute interview with Ames, now serving a life term. Following the interview, there was a one hour documentary by Tim Weiner, the NY Times intelligence reporter, "The Real CIA," which presented a straight description of intelligence and what it does along with some historical highlights. The Weiner report was excellent -- highly recommended. Unfortunately, there was no offer to sell videotapes...

UNSCOM INTELLIGENCE. On the same Sunday evening (Nov29), CNN/Time Newstand (which ran the infamous and wildly erroneous "Operation Tailwind" episode last summer), broadcast a 25 minute piece called "Operation Teacup," the codeword, CNN/Time claimed, for Scott Ridder's undercover UNSCOM operation to ferret out Iraq's weapons programs using intelligence sources. Most interesting was their report that Iraqi missile engineers traveled to Romania in May 1998 in an illegal effort to purchase missile technology. Moreover, according to the report, their activities in Bucharest were surveyed by "the intelligence services of three countries including the US" and in conjunction with Romanian security. The recorded evidence was to be presented to the UN Security Council to prove that Iraq still has an ongoing missile program. However, one or more of the countries who collected the data refused to release it, and so it was never used. One of the reasons Scott Ridder resigned, he says. The Thursday following this broadcast, Iraq's Deputy PM, Tareq Aziz, wrote to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan asking that UNSCOM sever its links to western intelligence agencies.

http://chicagotribune.com/version1/article/0,1575,SAV-9812020372,00.html

http://cnn.com:80/WORLD/meast/9812/04/BC-IRAQ-AZIZ.reut/index.html

CIA DI WEB PAGE. The CIA Directorate of Intelligence (DI) has a new web page that offers the CIA World Fact Book, other reference materials plus employment information. Especially interesting (and useful) are the pages under "Analytic Toolkit," which provide a good deal of information and insight into analysis and how to do it, how to deal with policymakers, how to caveat information and so on. Highly recommended. http://www.odci.gov/cia/di/index.html

SANTA CLAUSE. NORAD has a web page this year to report on its tracking of St Nick's approach. http://www.noradsanta.org/

In preparing for the course on intelligence I will be teaching at American University next semester, I've put together a list of intelligence web sites for my students to use. For what it's worth, here it is. --John Macartney, Washington, DC

BEST INTEL WEBSITE (in my opinion)

GOOD LINKS TO MANY SITES:

NY TIMES 1998 CIA PAGE (Tim Weiner)

SEARCHABLE DATABASES:

INTELLIGENCE REFORM (1996)

SPECIAL REPORTS

BUSINESS (COMPETITIVE) INTELLIGENCE

JOBS & CAREERS

HUMINT

SIGINT

IMINT

MASINT

OSINT

COUNTERINTELLIGENCE

COVERT ACTION

INFORMATION WARFARE

CIA, Center for Study of Intelligence

CIA FOIA documents

NATIONAL SECURITY ARCHIVE (declassified documents)

CRITICS OF THE CIA

SENATE INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE

FOREIGN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES

ON LINE JOURNALS

SPECIAL REPORTS

PRIVATE ORGANIZATIONS

SECTION IV -- MONTHLY "HEADS UP" LIST.

Lists events of interest to AFIO members and intelligence scholars.
NOTE: If you know of an event coming up in the next 12 months that should be added to this list, PLEASE ADVISE John Macartney, <jdmac@erols.com>

DECEMBER 1998:

Dec 7-8, Monterey, CA. PacIntel '98 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700

Dec 7-8, Defense Week Annual Conference, "Defending National Critical Infrastructure. http://www.kingpublishing.com/g-18.htm

Dec 7-10, Surveillance Expo '98 Washington, DC. (nfi)

Dec 9 & 10, San Antonio, TX. 1998 Regional OPSEC Symposium, hosted by the Interagency OPSEC Support Staff (IOSS), the OPSEC Professionals Society (OPS) and the AF Info Warfare Center. Some sessions classified. http://www.opsec.org/98regional.htm / 301-982-0323 / 301-840-8502

NEXT YEAR 1999

JAN 11, AFIO Winter Luncheon. Morning speaker (1100) GUS RUSSO, author of Live By The Sword: The Secret War Against Castro and the Death of JFK. Russo is an investigative reporter who has sought to compile a credible account of President Kennedy's assassination for over twenty years. After - Luncheon speaker: MILT BEARDEN, former CIA Chief of Station in Pakistan and a central figure in clandestine support of the Afghan rebel war against the Soviets, a struggle reflected in his superb novel, "The Black Tulip," will speak on "Afghanistan: Consequences, Myths and Reality." (703)790-0320, http://www.his.com/afio.

JAN 19-21, 1999. Washington. Conference on "The Applications of Remote Sensing and GIS for Disaster Management." GWU Marvin Center

FEB 16-20, 1999, Washington. ISA Convention. This is the premier forum for intelligence scholars. http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/washington/

MAR 8-9, Chantilly, VA. NMIA's Symposium, "MASINT Support to the Warfighter", NRO Conference Center, Chantilly, VA. Classification level:SECRET.

MAR 10-12, The Hague, Netherlands. EuroIntel '99 conference sponsored by OSS, Inc. http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700

MAR 21-25, 1999. Washington. National OPSEC Conference, Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.opsec.org / 301.548.1018.

MAR 24-25, Washington. Professional Connections in the Intelligence Community (PCIC) Symposium (job fair), at March 24-25, 1999 at Radisson Plaza Hotel at Mark Center, Alexandria, Virginia. http://www.pcic.net

MAY 21, NMIA's Information Operations '99 and the NMIA Annual Awards Banquet are tentatively scheduled for 21 May at the Radisson Plaza at Mark Center in Alexandria, Virginia. (301) 840-6642, http://www.nmia.org

MAY 24-26, Washington. OSS '99, http://www.oss.net/ (703) 242-1700

JUNE 18, Washington. DIA's Joint Military Intelligence College (JMIC) will sponsor a conference on "Teaching Intelligence in Colleges & Universities." Contact LTC Kevin Johnson. <k-m-johnson@worldnet.att.net>

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