Weekly Intelligence Notes
WIN #47-02 dtd 11 December 2002
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. RADM (ret) Don Harvey contributes articles to selected WINs.
Ed. NOTE: It is with great regret and sorrow that I must announce that Ted Shackley, esteemed and eminent CIA Cold War veteran, friend, colleague and valued longtime member of AFIO, part of the AFIO Board of Directors, suddenly passed away Tuesday night, December 9th. The sad news is more fully conveyed in Section VI.
CONTENTS of this WIN
[HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents] [This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition recipients. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at email@example.com. If you use AOL, you would need AOL version 6.0 or higher to receive HTML messages, and have that feature turned on. The feature also does not work for those who access their mail using webmail.]
CIA ANALYZING IRAQI WEAPONS REPORT -- The 12,000 page Iraqi report on their 'Weapons of Mass Destruction' programs arrived at the UN in New York on Sunday 7 December. The Security Council President, Alfonso Valdiviezo (Colombia) thereupon instructed UN Chief Weapons Inspector Hans Blix to grant immediate access to the declarations to 'certain members who offered to assist in the analysis.' Taking this literally, a US delegation then took the original documents away, leaving behind diplomatic controversy and unhappiness with alleged strong-arm tactics. The reported reason for the US move was that the Iraqi declaration contained "cookbooks" or manuals on how to build nuclear weapons. Subsequently Britain and France received (allegedly unedited) copies of the Iraqi materials on Monday, and on Wednesday China and Russia received theirs. The ten non-permanent (none-too-happy) members of the Security Council will presumably receive sanitized and edited versions sometime next week.
The CIA is supervising a crash program of relevant agencies to translate and analyze the information. The Agency is expected to send a preliminary assessment to the White House on Friday the 13th. It may be a few weeks before the Administration can complete a detailed evaluation.
Iraq charged that Washington would distort the report in order to provide the grounds for a military assault, and also floated the proposition that the U.S. wanted the original report on an exclusive basis to delete references to U.S. participation in helping Iraq's WMD weapons programs in the late 1980's and into 1990. It should be noted that during the period in question Iraq was at war with Iran, had not endeavored to seize key oil reserves by invading Kuwait ( long a critical UK/US strategic petroleum reserve vassal), and had not threatened Saudi Arabia or manifested a capability to strike Israel ( a dominant US policy and political concern). It is clear that no intelligence, no report, or no declaration will appease the US without Iraqi regime change, political subjugation and reform, and disarmament. The US political/war pressure will be unrelenting, and the challenge and burden for intelligence of the Iraqi war added to the war on terrorism. (Jonkers) (NewsMax 12/10/11 // S. Stogel) (WashTimes 11 Dec 02, p.1 // Pisik & Kralev) (http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/12/10/111509.shtml)
NEXT-GENERATION SPACE RECCE PROGRAM UNDER-FUNDED -- A secret program for developing the next generation of space reconnaissance satellites, called 'Future Imagery Architecture' (FIA), is reportedly under-funded and behind schedule and could leave gaps in satellite coverage, impacting adversely on future US intelligence capabilities. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld met Thursday with DCI George Tenet to review the situation, which falls within the scope of the NRO (National Reconnaissance Office) and the NIMA (National Imagery & Mapping Agency) . It apparently will require a reprogramming of about $625 million to $900 million from other intelligence programs this year. There is talk of a projected $550 Million cost over-run by the principal contractor, Boeing. There is also talk of a need for a "radical restructuring" of the program. After meeting with the DCI, SecDef Rumsfeld told Stephen Cambone, his director of defense Program Analysis and Evaluation (and probable nominee for the new Under Secretary of Intelligence post) to recommend a strategy by the end of next week for getting the FIA program back on track.
The NRO operates a fleet of satellites thought to consist of three KH-11 Keyhole satellites that take digital pictures, and three Lacrosse satellites that produce radar images. The Keyhole and Lacrosse satellites -- school bus-size spacecraft that orbit the Earth at altitudes of 400 to 600 miles -- are reported to have the ability to depict objects as small as 10 centimeters in length, but exact capabilities are classified.
The next-generation satellites under the FIA program represent an incremental improvement. But some analysts believe the country should be investing in radical new approaches. One is for building satellites that would orbit at much higher altitudes, giving them more time over a target. This would require the satellites to be even larger than they are now -- with larger lenses and radar antennae -- for image quality to be maintained. The other is for building constellations of smaller, cheaper satellites that could provide virtually constant coverage of targets. Under this system, as one satellite flies over a city, it would be immediately followed by another.
It may be noted that public discourse in the media on this subject suffers severely from inaccuracies of understanding capabilities and technical scope. It may also be noted that Congress has expressed skepticism about the FIA, and stated in the FY 2003 Intelligence Authorization bill that they have provided more money for the program, and for alternative systems "if developmental problems exist or persist." They also noted a "continuing pattern" in which managers seek more money for their own programs with "little or no regard" for the overall mix of imagery needed to counter terrorists and other national security threats. (Jonkers) (WashPost 11 Dec02, p. 31 //V. Loeb).
CAPTURED AL QAEDA LEADER SINGING LIKE A BIRD -- A senior al Qaeda leader, Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri, captured last month, is disclosing valuable information that has enabled interrogators to link him to more than a dozen terrorist operations against U.S. and Western targets and enabled them to disrupt his network of supporters in Persian Gulf countries. Saudi Arabian security officials have been involved in helping to round up Nashiri's supporters. Several terrorist attacks may have been prevented, almost all involving attacks on ships or ports or other maritime targets. . U.S. officials are said to have expressed surprise at Nashiri's willingness to talk, although they wouldn't say whether he was providing information willingly or under duress. He is being interrogated at an undisclosed location. Officials said they had also uncovered leads from a computer hard drive and a cell phone in his possession when he was arrested. Nashiri's information, and the subsequent roll-up of his network in the Arabian Peninsula, is particularly important because of the impending war with Iraq, and the greatly increased US presence in the Gulf. It significantly lessens the chance of terrorist attacks against US military targets.
The threat has not disappeared, however, at least in words. A statement attributed to a Kuwaiti al Qaeda spokesman, Sulaiman Abu Ghaith, and posted on a militant Web site Sunday, threatened new strikes against the U.S. and Israel if the U.S. goes to war against Iraq. "The Jewish-Crusader coalition will not be safe anywhere from the fighters' attacks." Yet the al Qaeda spokesman also criticized Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, who has jailed most Islamist militants in Iraq, calling him a "tyrant" and an "infidel." It almost seems as if Al Qaeda, Iraq and the US form a triangle of conflict. (Jonkers) (Wall St. Jrnl, 9 Dec 02 //D. Cloud)
CONGRESSIONAL 9/11 PANEL RECOMMENDS INFORMATION SHARING -- The 9/11 panel will recommend revising policies to promote information sharing among government agencies, and also to expand public access to government information. "The President should review and consider amendments to the Executive Orders, policies and procedures that govern the national security classification of intelligence information, in an effort to expand access to relevant information for federal agencies outside the Intelligence Community, for state and local authorities, and for the American public," according to the Joint Inquiry's draft Recommendation 14. The draft Recommendation goes on to acknowledge that the government secrecy system is not as "realistic" as it should be and that it is routinely subject to abuse.
Improved information sharing is critical, and goes well beyond intelligence. We need a system that reaches to and from National Intelligence and Federal agencies to and from local law enforcers and providers, without destroying the effectiveness of US intelligence, inherently a secret enterprise. (Jonkers) (Secrecy News #121, Dec 10, 2002)
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE COUNCIL APPOINTMENT -- Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet has tapped Robert L. Hutchings, a European specialist and author of a noted diplomatic history of the Cold War, to lead the National Intelligence Council, a body that analyzes long-term trends and chronic problems in the world for U.S. policymakers. The council is made up of a chairman, vice chairman and 12 senior area experts from various intelligence agencies as well as academia and the private sector. They report to the director of central intelligence and coordinate intelligence estimates for the president. Hutchings will assume the position, which lasts two years, in early 2003.
Hutchings, 56, has been at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs since 1997. He previously worked as a special adviser to Secretary of State James A. Baker III during the administration of President George H.W. Bush. Under Baker, Hutchings helped direct a $l billion U.S. assistance program for Eastern Europe. He is a graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy and holds a PhD in government from the University of Virginia. He is the author of "American Diplomacy and the End of the Cold War: An Insider's Account of U.S. Policy in Europe, 1989-92." (Jonkers) WashPost 10 Dec 02, p. 17 //D. Priest)
CONGRESSIONAL INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE CHANGES -- There will be changes in the composition of the Senate and House intelligence committees. On the House side, Porter Goss is likely to continue as the Chairman of the HPSCI since he was persuaded not to retire this year by the House leadership and the White House. The senior HPSCI Democrat selection is not known to be settled as yet between either Sanford Bishop or Jane Harman. Rep Bishop is senior and might agree to move if he obtains another spot he wants.. Rep Harman of California has been the top Democrat on the intelligence subcommittee responsible for terrorism and domestic security, and wants the top slot, succeeding Nancy Pelosi.
On the Senate side, Pat Roberts of Kansas is expected to succeed Richard Shelby as the chairman of the SSCI. He is said to believe IC people are honest, hard-working Americans who want to do a good job, and is unlikely to engage in public confrontations with IC members. He has described the recent joint intelligence panel inquiry as a game of "gotcha" and a "runaway train" and has joined other lawmakers in complaining that it was too driven by the special staff hired for the inquiry. He criticized staff investigators for suggesting that a high-ranking CIA official might "dissemble" under committee questioning. In offering his apologies to the official, Rep Roberts said, "You're almost on trial. I won't call it shameful, but it's damn close." The incident was further embellished subsequently by the staff director's 'lamest-in-recent-history' excuse for the slander.
John Rockefeller of West Virginia, a friend of the current SSCI Chairman Bob Graham, is slated to become the senior Democrat on the committee. He has kept a low profile on the panel and aides say the senator is working hard to gain experience in intelligence. While one would have thought that membership on the SSCI would have earlier provided motivation to "gain experience in intelligence," it will be a relief to have a senior Senator on the SSCI who values a low profile. (Harvey) (NYT 2 Dec 02 //C. Hulse)
RUSSIAN TREATY WITH KYRGYZSTAN -- Russia has signed a new security pact with Kyrgyzstan, where a Russian air squadron and up to 1,000 Russian troops will be based by year's end as part of a new rapid-reaction force that marks a major deployment for the Russian military in formerly Soviet Central Asia. The planes and soldiers will join forces from two other Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan, implementing their collective security organization treaty. American troops are also stationed in Kyrgyzstan. They use Manas airport, less than 40 miles from the more modest airport at Kant, where the Russians are taking up position.
The deployment may be seen in the context of a 'still friendly' struggle for power, influence and oil in the Central Asian region, formerly a part of the Soviet Union, between the US, from its power bases in Azerbaijan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan, and the Russians. The deployment may also be seen as Russia's attempt to influence domestic politics in Kyrgyzstan, now roiled by protests and demands that President Askar Akayev resign.
We tend to forget that intelligence must deal with more than terrorism and nuclear proliferation - there still is, and will be, a need for intelligence to support old-fashioned power politics. (Jonkers) (NYTimes 7 Dec 02 // S. Tavernise) (http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/07/international/asia/07KYRG.html)
SECURITY RECOMMENDATIONS ENDORSED -- Communications industry officials on 6 December '02 endorsed a 300-item list Friday of what telephone, cable, satellite and Internet operators should do to protect against terrorist attack. The recommendations - from simply shutting down computers to upgrading software security to give it new muscle - should be implemented voluntarily by industry, the panel said. But Federal Communications Commission Chairman Michael Powell said some might be mandated by regulation. (Levine's Newsbits 12/09/02)
COMPLEX NETWORKS TOO EASY TO CRACK -- Internet
and telecommunications experts said increasingly complex software operating
systems and networks have made it easier than ever to disrupt U.S.
communications systems. At the same time, hackers don't need to be highly
skilled to wreak havoc. "Over time, we're getting very sophisticated attacks
from morons," said Bill Hancock, chair of the cybersecurity focus group of the
Network Reliability and Interoperability Council, which coordinates voluntary
"best practices" to maintain a streamlined communications infrastructure.
ISTANBUL INTRIGUES, by Barry Rubin, Bosphurus University Press, Istanbul -- A richly anecdotal history of diplomacy and espionage in Istanbul during World War II is provided in this new edition of "Istanbul Intrigues." Drawing on interviews with principals and primary sources in 'multiple languages, Rubin offers a highly readable account of the political and military ferment that characterized Istanbul in that momentous time. Rubin is director of the Institute for Turkish Studies at the Global Research in International Affairs Center near Tel Aviv, Israel. (Secrecy News 10 Dec 02) (http://gloria.idc.ac.il/publications/books/istanbul_intrigues.html)
EL DORADO CANYON: Reagan's Undeclared War With Qadaffi, by Joseph T. Stanik, Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, Md, November 2002, ISBN 1-55750-983-2, with Notes, Index and Bibliography. The name of the book is a code name for an air raid against Libya, in direct response to Qadaffi's support for a terrorist act against US service personnel in Europe, implementing President Reagan's pledge to respond to terrorism with "swift and effective retribution." Joseph Stanik, a retired naval officer and Middle East scholar, provides a detailed account of the raid, and an in-depth analysis of its causes and effects. He also describes three other hostile encounters between US and Libyan forces and recounts US covert operations in the 1980's. The book reads well and is a study in diplomacy, strategy, high-level policy and tactical operations. It will be of interest to historians, students of terrorism, and the casual reader. (Jonkers)
THE COMPLETE IDIOT'S GUIDE TO THE CIA, by Allan Swenson and Michael Benson, Alpha Books, NY, Sep 2002, ISBN 0-02-864396-8, Glossary, Listing of Abbreviations and Acronyms, Bibliography and Index. 'Complete Idiot's Guides' are normally not my cup of tea, but this compilation deserves an undeterred look, intentionally aiming for the popular market and written in a way understandable to the general public. It contains a wealth of information, plainly and concisely stated. For students and members of the public, not a bad way to satisfy some initial curiosity about the intelligence community in general, and the CIA in particular. It was written by a member of AFIO, and the Association is listed in Appendix B, Related Intelligence Associations. For those seeking a popular, easy to understand baseline understanding of intelligence, which currently is widely recognized as a vital part of the war on terrorism, this book is a good way to start. (Jonkers)
C. S. writes ref. WIN 46-02, 8 Dec 02, on Congressional 9/11 panel findings -- Item 2 is foolishness. The ONLY way for intelligence to work is to NOT have a single boss !!!!!!!! I have seen the Director of CIA try to push some perfectly stupid idea (that came from the White House) and only independent, free thinking other agencies at the USIB shot it down in flames. That is why we have---and need---footnote positions in the National Intelligence Estimates !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bayard Stockton writes -- I run an ongoing discussion series on geopolitical and regional current events in the Continuing Education (Adult Ed) program of Santa Barbara Community College, California. I would be interested in hearing from/meeting any AFIO members in the vicinity who might like to appear from time-to-time in the series when we discuss intelligence-related topics, especially, of course, to do with the Middle East. firstname.lastname@example.org.
NMIA - Potomac Chapter will conduct a tour and luncheon at the International Spy Museum on 11 January 2003. Cost is $55. Contact email@example.com
AFIO BOARD of DIRECTORS - will meet on 13 January 2003.
AFIO National Quarterly Luncheon will be at the Holiday Inn hotel, McLean Va, on 21 January 2003, from 10:30 - 2 pm. Speakers include Elizabeth McIntosh, speaking on Women in Intelligence. Cost is $27.50. Pay be credit card - register by email AFIO@AFIO.COM.
IN MEMORIAM - TED SHACKLEY -- It is with great regret and sorrow that I must announce that Ted Shackley, esteemed and eminent CIA Cold War veteran, friend, colleague, leader, and valued longtime member of AFIO, part of the AFIO Board of Directors, suddenly passed away Tuesday night, December 9th, in his residence in Bethesda, Maryland. He suffered from cancer for years, and seemed to be in remission when we received the terrible word. When his kidneys stopped functioning, and he knew the end was inevitable and near, his courageous spirit never flagged. He faced death as he had faced the challenges of life. He was tough to the end. At CIA he was a renowned station chief and leader in the Directorate of Operations. In AFIO we knew him as a man of his word, forthright, positive, constructive, always ready to assist, invariably helpful. During the past years he played a key role as co-Chairman of the annual AFIO Business Intelligence Conference. AFIO will miss him. The Board will miss him. I will miss him.
He is survived by his wife, Hazel T. Shackley, and daughter Suzanne and her children. Friends may call at the funeral home of Joseph Gawler's Sons, Inc., 5130 Wisconsin Ave, NW, (at Harrison St) on Friday, 13 December from 2-4 pm, and from 7-9 pm. Mass of Christian burial will be held at the Church of Little Flower, 5607 Massachusetts Ave, Bethesda, Md., on Saturday 14 December at 10 am. Internment will be in West Palm Beach, Florida, at a later date. In lieu of flowers, contributions may be made to the American Cancer Society.
One last note. Ted's wife, Hazel, has a special request. Friends, colleagues, acquaintances, please jot down any anecdotes (or pertinent events) relating to Ted, so she can read these items with her daughter and bind them into a booklet for her grandchildren. Please fax to 703 991-1278, or mail to AFIO at firstname.lastname@example.org for relay. (Jonkers)
WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor(s) or author(s) listed with each article.
AFIO Members -- Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at www.afio.com for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications -- and much more!
© 2002, AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303A, McLean, VA 22101. AFIO@afio.com; Voice: 703 790-0320; Fax: 703 991-1278.