Weekly Intelligence Notes
WIN #48-02 dtd 17 December 2002
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are produced and edited by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. RADM (ret) Don Harvey contributes articles to selected WINs.
ED. NOTE (1): This is
the last WIN for the year. As the winter solstice approaches in the
Northern Hemisphere, AFIO looks back on a year of productive common effort,
given depth by the loss of valued AFIO colleagues and friends. But we also look
forward, to the challenges of further initiatives and mission
accomplishment in the year to come. We wish you all HAPPY HOLIDAYS,
and a healthy and fortuitous 2003. (RJ)
ED. NOTE (2): Reminder -- the AFIO National Office will be closed effective today, 17 December 2002, for inventory and holidays, until 2 January 2003.
CONTENTS of this WIN
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COLOMBIAN DRUG WAR INTELLIGENCE - Colombian drug traffickers now account for about 60% of the heroin being used on the East Coast. The availability of Colombian heroin has increased dramatically since 1993 when Asian traffickers controlled the market. The 96 percent "purity rate" of Colombian heroin is more than twice that of Mexican brown heroin and 25 percent greater than the heroin being smuggled from Asia. The purity of the Colombian heroin allows dealers to "cut" it several times, meaning that adulterants, such as aspirin and Dramamine, are added to increase the profit. It also keeps the cost low. Sgt. Scott Pelletier, a detective with the Portland, Maine Police Department, said heroin use has increased in his city because people can get it at low prices. "A majority of the addicted people in Maine travel to Massachusetts to purchase heroin for as little at $4 per bag," he said. "A happy meal at a fast food restaurant costs more than a single dose of heroin."
Since the year 2000 the U.S. has provided more than $1 billion in aid to Colombia to fight heroin and other hard drug production and distribution. Although air reconnaissance and operations spraying the poppy crop are dangerous, in 2000 some 22,000 acres of opium poppy were sprayed. In 2001 this dropped to 17,000 acres, and so far this year some 15,000 acres have been sprayed. Targeting the opium poppy crop is a complex and costly proposition. Poppy is grown in well-hidden, widely dispersed fields in rugged cloud-covered mountains, often defended by FARC (Colombian rebels), or by paramilitary groups. A State Department spokesman attributed this year's decline in acreage sprayed to a shortage of spray planes, security aircraft (helicopters) and pilots, and bad weather. The equipment and manpower shortfall has now been remedied, and an aggressive increase in acreage sprayed has been promised.
This promise could easily become one of statistics manipulation -- such and so many acres sprayed -- applying a mechanical bureaucratic measure of effectiveness. The real measure of effectiveness is in the availability of Colombian heroin on the streets in America, and in those terms we earn a failing grade, in reconnaissance, intelligence, force application, preventive measures, and smart policy, in all aspects, from poppy growth to transportation to distribution on the streets - and most importantly, in terms of stemming the ever-increasing domestic public demand for drugs. Our nation's vast appetite for drugs is the reason why South America grows coca and poppies. We induce people to become criminals. The problem demands more than a one-note response. Mere acreage sprayed tells you no more than body counts did in Vietnam. (Jonkers) (CNS 13 Dec02 //J. Burns) (WashTimes 13 Dec02, p. A13 // J. Seper) http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=\Politics\archive\200212\POL20021213b.html
INDONESIAN TERRORIST INTELLIGENCE - The terrorist attack on the nightclub in Bali that killed nearly 200 people in October was the work of a radical Islamic organization, Jemaah Islamiyah, that carried out a series of bombings of churches across Indonesia two years ago, according to a 30-page report by the 'American Crisis Group' in Jakarta. The church burnings were done as revenge for the killings of Muslims by Christians during communal conflicts in the Maluku Islands and Central Sulawesi in 1999 and 2000.
Jemaah Islamiyah, which has links to al Qaeda, began with a goal of creating an Islamic state, and then grew into a terrorist organization. Its formal leader is Abu Bakar Bashir, a 64-year old Indonesian cleric, who was recently arrested at US insistence. He is likely to be a 'political/ ideological' advocate, not a plotter. The terrorist arm of Jemaah Islamiyah operates through cells and has an ad hoc structure. Below two tiers of leaders are young men who carry out the attacks, driving the cars and delivering the bombs. They are often not selected until shortly before the attack.
Jemaaah Islamiyah's potential for further attacks "may be more extensive than previously thought," said the report, written by Sydney Jones, an American widely regarded as the foremost authority on Jemaah Islamiyah. This terrorist organization, with its radical Islamic national objectives, may well turn to targeting Americans. (Jonkers) (NYTimes 12 Dec02// R. Bonner) http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/12/international/asia/12BALI.html
IRAQ WAR INTELLIGENCE -- While the US buildup is continuing with call-ups of reservists and deployments pointing to a February engagement, and while US bombing, as yet on a small scale, pinpoints Iraqi air defense installations, and while US intelligence is engaged in clandestine operations and preparation of the battlefield, the UN inspection teams are ransacking Iraq for clues of chemical, biological or nuclear activities. The UN Weapons Inspector, in response to US pressure, has asked Iraq to provide a list of government officials and scientists currently or formerly associated with such programs. It is the US position that these scientists be interrogated abroad - away from Iraq, with or without their consent. Allegedly the most wanted are Dr. Rihab Taha, micro-biologist; Dr. Abdul Nassir Hindawi, microbiologist; Dr. Hazem Ali, virologist; Dr Mahdi Obeidi, nuclear scientist; and Dr. Jaffa Dhia Jaffar, nuclear physicist. Any Iraqi scientist who can be persuaded to say something damaging will provide useful public relations cover for the operation.
The 12,000 page Iraqi declaration has predictably been declared unsatisfactory by the US. Beyond the theatrics, the US objective remains firm - and it is probable that most of the Arab states will join the US-led alliance when it comes to war, as will states like France, which has traditional oil interests at stake.
Saddam for his part has shed his traditional militantly secular image and has opportunistically adopted the stance of a devout believer in Islam, who sprinkles his speeches with references to "Allah the merciful." He is appealing to the Arab masses over the heads of their governments, somewhat like bin Laden, with a theme that the US is responsible for great atrocities against Arabs and Arab countries. Militarily he reportedly has taken no steps to prepare for a US ground invasion from the south -- his troops remain deployed in central - northern Iraq. If it comes to war, he probably intends to fight in the cities, but likely would not personally survive long when it becomes clear that defeat is certain. (Jonkers) (WashPost 15Dec02, p. A38 //M. Dobbs) (Wpost 14Dec 02,p. A21//W. Pincus &C.Lynch)
FBI TERRORISM REPORT -- FBI director Robert Mueller recently said that "tens of terrorist attacks, probably close to a hundred around the world" have been stopped in the past 15 months. He credited better intelligence gathering and coordination, and information from al-Qaida detainees in custody, including those he described as architects of would-be attacks. But he warned that many potential terrorists remain at large in the United States. "I think we're well on our way to winning the war, but the fact of the matter is . . . Al-Qaida still has the capability of striking us." The bureau, he said, is on the lookout for unconventional attacks, noting the 19 Sept. 11 hijackers used only box cutters for weapons. "No explosives, no guns. We need to continue to be alert, be vigilant."
Suspected terrorists are being tracked down by the Foreign Terrorist Tracking Task Force, a part of the FBI's broader transformation from an agency focused mainly on law enforcement to one whose priority is preventing terrorism. That has included much improved technology, the reassignment of more than 500 agents to fight terrorism, and the hiring of more than 330 linguists to translate such languages as Arabic and Pashtun. Another change has been better teamwork with the CIA, Defense Department and state and local law enforcement agencies. On balance, said Director Mueller, the FBI is "uniquely positioned" to tackle the job because it has both intelligence and law-enforcement capabilities - allowing it to both detect and, if necessary, arrest or seek deportation of would-be terrorists before they strike.
Obviously a mighty effort is being made by Director Mueller to reorient the FBI to meet the terrorism threat, but there are numerous high-level voices (Congress, commissions) in Washington who articulate the need to separate the terrorist intelligence operation from the FBI by creating (yet another) intelligence agency. In Washington, when in doubt, reorganize. One would voice a note of caution. There will be significant near-term costs and losses in such a process, and we may not want to pay this in the midst of an anti-terrorist "war." (Jonkers) (AP 14 Dec //C. Anderson)
DEFENSE CLANDESTINE PROPAGANDA OPERATIONS -- Should the military be permitted to conduct covert operations aimed at influencing public opinion and policy makers in friendly and neutral countries? For example, should the military carry out secret propaganda missions in friendly nations like Germany, where many of the Sept. 11 hijackers congregated, or Pakistan, still considered a haven for Al Qaeda's militants, or South Korea, where anti-US sentiment is growing?
The classified Defense Department directive "3600.1: Information Operations" reportedly governs clandestine information operations against hostile countries. Current policy holds that aggressive information tactics are employed against "adversary decision makers" ‹ not those of friendly or even neutral nations. The debate concerns amending the directive. There is little dispute over battlefield tactics, but the idea of ordering the military to take psychological aim at allies has divided the Pentagon ‹ with civilians and uniformed officers on both sides of the debate.
Those who oppose it say that secret operations, if deemed warranted by the president, should be carried out by American intelligence agencies -- i.e. CIA. In fact, the CIA has been active in influencing foreign perceptions of the US, both overtly and covertly. The State Department is also active in this field, but conducts activities on a non-clandestine basis as part of 'public diplomacy.'
Those who favor an amendment to the DoD directive contend that the Pentagon has the best technological tools for the job and that the American military has important interests to protect in some countries, including those where ties with the government are stronger than the affections of the population. For example, as anti-American sentiment has risen this year in South Korea, some Pentagon officials allegedly were considering ways of influencing Korean public opinion outside of traditional public affairs or community outreach programs.
This subject is ill-suited for public discussion -- it could easily become another public relations disaster. One might guess how friendly nations would react when announced as targets for clandestine US military information operations -- through attaches, businessmen, journalists etc -- and what it would do for Defense Department credibility. There might also be doubts about the military's suitability for these 'influence' operations, unless part of a larger National operation. The SecDef, who generally pushes for military innovation and more robust operations in the fight against terrorism, has reportedly not made a decision on this issue. (Jonkers) (NYTimes 16 Dec 02 p. 1 //T. Shanker & E. Schmidt)
PRC's INTERNET CENSORSHIP -- Contrary to the popular American myth that the Internet is too diverse and malleable for state control, a recent Harvard Law School study indicates that China effectively operates an effective Internet censorship operation. The Internet has common checkpoints, subject to control. The researchers found that China blocked up to 50,000 sites at some point in the six-month testing period. Some 19,000 sites could not be reached from different places in China on multiple days. The PRC was selectively filtering content in real time and deleting individual links or Web pages.
In comparison to Saudi Arabia, which had been studied earlier, China's censorship is far broader -- for example, access to the major sites on Tibet and Taiwan were completely blocked. Although the PRC justifies its censorship as control of the proliferation of pornography, it blocked fewer than 15 percent of the most popular sexually explicit sites. Saudi Arabia banned 86 percent of the list.
The study has offered evidence that the Internet is easier to control than older forms of communications such as telephone, facsimile or even letters. It would appear that intelligence contingency planners for any possible future conflict with the PRC will have to carefully consider how psychological warfare or information warfare aspects will be conditioned or limited by the Chinese censorship capabilities. (Harvey) (NYTimes 4 Dec 02 //J. Kahn)
NIGERIAN NET SCAM, VERSION 3.0 -- All those beleaguered widows, complaining chief's sons and yowling high-ranking government officials don't want your assistance in getting a large sum of money out of Nigeria anymore. Now they want to buy your stuff. Yes, there's a new twist in Nigeria's thriving Internet-based scam operations. This time, the scammers pose as potential buyers for big-ticket items, like cars, listed for sale online. The buyer explains that a business associate in the United States will mail the seller a cashier's check for the amount of the item plus the cost to transport it overseas. The seller is asked to wire the transportation fees to the buyer once the check has cleared so the buyer can arrange for shipment. (Levine 16 Dec 02)
TECHNOLOGY AND PRIVACY -- Why is everyone so surprised that the U.S. government wants to create a Total Information Awareness database with details about everything you do? This is an unsurprising result of having so much information about our lives archived on the computers of our credit card companies, our banks, our health insurance companies and government agencies. (Levine 16 Dec 02)
WORLD WAR II: OSS TRAGEDY IN SLOVAKIA, by Jim Downs, Liefrinck Publishers, Oceanside, CA, ISBN 0-971-7482-0-9, Bibliography, Index. Jim Downs tells the story of an OSS unit supporting local partisans, some two dozen American and British agents, and two women, whose mission in Slovakia ran afoul of German counterintelligence in 1944. Pursued by an 'Abwehr' unit through rugged terrain in frigid weather, most lost their lives, victims of bad luck, bad weather or bad judgment. The story is set in a complicated mosaic of personalities of all nationalities, in obscure towns and villages, and may be a challenge to follow for some. Interesting, different, with a tragic ending -- the history of real life in ruthless war. (Jonkers)
'14 -'18: UNDERSTANDING THE GREAT WAR, by Stephane Audoin-Rouzeau & Annette Becker, Hill and Wang, NY, 2002, ISBN 0-8090-4642-3, Notes, Index. In our word-inflated descriptions of current threats, it is well to examine again some of the roots of twentieth century brutality, exhibited in the first global war, World War I. It was the formative event for what followed. Let me warn you at once that this is a scholarly book, for contemplative thought. The French authors have examined the Great War from three perspectives. The first relates to the war's exceptional level of violence, terror and carnage, essentially mowing down a generation of men. The second perspective relates to its aspect of a crusade - against evil, against an inferior race -- for the Germans were then successfully painted by allied propaganda as an "inferior" race, inherently barbaric, a notion that had terrible consequences in contributing to the subsequent success of the compensating notion of Germanic 'Aryan' superiority, Nazism and World War II. The third perspective, a novel approach, examines the problem of mourning the dead - so many dead.
The combatants began the war by defining it in patriotic terms, but then transformed it into a crusade. Patriotism escalated into a perception of the conflict as between civilization and barbarism, a dichotomy accompanied by crude hatreds and reflexive dehumanization of the enemy, fueled by myths that grew into eschatological expectations -- that the war would lead to the end of all wars -- which led to further disillusionment when the truth sank in after war's end. In the final analysis, the authors argue, the great war left a dual legacy - grief and totalitarianism.
This is not a book for the casual reader, but a European scholarly study leading to deeper understanding of some of the phenomena we have encountered in the past century - at least those of us who have the privilege of a long view back. It attempts to answer some of the questions that must confront one about WW I -- how political leaders and generals could send their men to certain death in hundreds of thousands again and again in the course of four long years, and how men could be willing - or compelled - to storm into an iron hailstorm, and certain death, year in year out, with little or no territorial or other gain. It is not an intelligence-book, but one of information war and manipulation, mass delusion, and ruthless leadership, of a giant European civil war and cultural implosion, with grievous consequences bringing a century of ideological war. For thoughtful readers willing to read this challenging book there are perhaps relevant criteria for judgment of the inflated words and messianic terminology describing our current search for security.
CORRECTION - The NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon on Thursday 19 January 2003, announced in WIN 47-02, has been moved to the Potomac Room at the Officer's Club at Bolling Air Force Base. (firstname.lastname@example.org)
RE: IN MEMORIAM - Ted Shackley - Omitted from the last WIN was information about the funeral in Florida. There will be a Chapel Service on Saturday 21 December at 1:00 pm, Mizell-Faville-Zern Funeral Home, 4101 Parker Road, West Palm Beach, Florida (561) 833-4061. The burial service will be Saturday 21 Dec at 1:45 pm at the Hillcrest Memorial Cemetery, 6411 Parker Road, West Palm Beach, Florida, (561) 582-4131.
EULOGY -- Ted Shackley, AFIO Board of Directors, see text which follows by AFIO Board Member Thomas Spencer.
EULOGY FOR AN AMERICAN PATRIOT
THEODORE G. SHACKLEY
Presented by his friend
Church of the Little Flower
December 14, 2002
Ted passed from this life as elegantly as he lived it, with precision and planning. Like a Tall Ship slipping from its moorings, slowly and with great care and with sails furled, Ted drifted out over the horizon on yet another adventure. And just like Ted, he planned the excursion down to the finest details, so as not to burden anyone.
Those of us who are lucky enough to be part of his loyal crew are left to represent the essence and expanse of his life and his philosophy. It is an honor and great responsibility. Ted was no ordinary man.
As I have reflected upon my life with Ted, and my studies of him, I have distilled what I would refer to as his main rules of conduct, "Ted's Top Twenty"
1. Life is a big Enchilada -- eat at it a little at a time, digest carefully.
2. Buy every authentic oriental rug you can afford.
3. Suffer the odd bods and sods with grace.
4. Never pass up a clean restroom, a fine wine or a good meal.
5. Wargame everything. Go back over it. Repeat this process.
6. Carefully observe the bobs, winks and nods. The truth is in between them.
7. Loyalty should end where the conspiracy begins.
8. Pick a few restaurants and frequent them over and over and over. Ted recommends: Le Chaumier, Tivoli and Kazan's. Pick something which tempts the "inner man."
9. Never ever lie, except to the enemy.
10. Work until you drop. Never stop working.
11. Wrap yourself in our flag.
12. If there is no wind, put your back to it and row.
13. Keep cool under fire. Forget the "Besser Wizzers."
14. Stand by your family, no matter what.
15. Be a loyal friend and a fierce enemy.
16. Make as much "Pinky Pinky" as you honestly can and put it in the bank or a rising stock market.
17. Stay focused.
18. Know your customer. When in doubt, don't.
19. Every good intelligence gathering exercise should begin with a CC and soda.
20. Once smitten, hang on for eternity.
This was a man who spent his entire life, both in and out of service, his entire being, sowing the seeds of our freedom wherever he went. He would never represent or work for a foreign state.
With each and every assignment, with every speech he gave, with every book he wrote, he touched people's lives for the better. He lived with commitment and forethought, with care and completion.
He believed in the salutary effects of good fellowship. No person was too low for him to embrace and no person too high for pleasant conversation. There are thousands of people who have studied and are now studying his books The Third Option and You Are The Target with Dick Finney. His lectures are revered by agencies around the world. Thus, he has sowed seeds which will bloom for many years to come.
Ted had a great sense of humor, desert dry. Once, we had finished dinner in Virginia on a dark blustery night with some Ex-KGB officers and we were driving them back to Washington. He deliberately drove out of our way past CIA HQ. As the gate and sign approached, one Russian turned to him and said: "Ted -- you take us on American style ride, yes? Just like Godfather?" We had a good laugh.
Another time the two of us had a meeting with President Gorbachev in New York. Gorbachev looked over Ted from Toes to Head and said: "Ted, you look better than your file." Ted glowed. That was what Ted would refer to as a baseball card experience.
Among his mysteries, and there are many, there is one I still haven=t figured out. He had this rubber neck. On long international flights, he could lower his head, stretch out that neck, nod off and awake completely refreshed! I was always exhausted! I spent many hours watching that incredible neck in awe.
He was at once proud of his work and yet hard on himself, always self critical and sensitive. Not out of hubris, but to better his conduct, improve his performance.
Ted believed that a man's life should bear witness to his work. That he should stand for something, accomplish something, leave a mark. Live carelessly, or frivolously and you will squander your time. But not to take pause, not to enjoy what life has to give is to fritter away the most precious of all the gifts we are given. A man must live with passion and purpose, humility and reverence.
So here lies a good and decent man who did his best for his country, his family and friends.
He has left his mark on us and countless others who we will never know. He has passed the flag and torch to us. His life has challenged us to take measure and to elevate our commitment and purpose.
We will see him anon.
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