Weekly Intelligence Notes #36-03
WIN 36-03 dtd 24 Sep 2003
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. RADM (ret) Don Harvey contributes articles to selected WINs. [Roy Jonkers is away at this time – See Note 2, below]
NOTE #1: AFIO'S NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM 2003
Join your AFIO Colleagues at CIA and NRO on November 3 and 4, as part of the National Symposium -- a sweeping survey of the “Changing Face of Intelligence.” Or, come for the Convention [1 and 2 November] and the Symposium. Hear CIA, NRO, FBI, Congressional, DARPA, NIMA, DoD, USMC, TTIC, and others -- Directors and/or Senior Officials -- address transformations for Homeland Defense, urgent counterterrorism issues, Congressional perspectives & expectations, and program goals and new directions for the 21st Century. Registrations are going fast, so let us know ASAP at <email@example.com> or 703.790.0320 if you would like to attend while space is available.
Feeling lazy? Good! A few well-placed mouse clicks with our online form and you’re done. Getting the inside skinny has never been easier.
NOTE #2: DEATH IN ROY JONKERS’ FAMILY
"For our many AFIO members who have come to welcome receiving the WINs, the EBBNs, the Periscope and Intelligencer and appreciate the long hours and dedication that Roy Jonkers puts into getting these out on time, of the fresh & succinct quality of his analysis of complex issues, while managing the day-to-day office business, and the 24/7 efforts he puts into planning each years' special Symposium: please join us as we pause to give our respects, thoughts and prayers for Roy and his family at the death of his wife of 55 years, Vilma, which occurred suddenly last Wednesday 17 September. The office staff will carry on, as best we can, but not with the same polished professionalism and quality as Roy, until he returns, to which we look forward. Our hearts and best wishes go to him and his family during this time of loss and mourning." -- Gene Poteat, President, AFIO
[It is expected that Roy will return to the office, and to his editorship of the WINs, in a few weeks.]
CONTENTS of this WIN
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TTIC, DHS and TERRORIST SCREENING CENTER -- You Say Potato…I Say Potahto…Let’s Call The Whole Thing Off?: Confusion began at the outset when officials recently testified before the Senate Judiciary Immigration and Border Security Subcommittee. While being questioned about the duties and longevity of the Terrorist Threat Integration Center (TTIC), Director John Brennan [who reports to the DCI] said "I think there's a real need for the TTIC mission. I don't see it going away." Others disagree. “Skeptics, however, say that TTIC should be considered a temporary measure. ‘TTIC is not a replacement for the intelligence capability that Congress has mandated for the Department of Homeland Security,’ says Rep. Christopher Cox, who chairs the House Homeland Security Committee. Cox and others worry that the government simply doesn't have enough well-trained terrorism analysts. An FBI internal study in January 2002 found that 66 percent of the FBI's 1,200 ‘intelligence research specialists,’ or analysts, were unqualified” -- wrote Kevin Whitelaw, USNEWS, 15 Sep 03. Larry Mefford, executive assistant director of the FBI counterterrorism-counterintelligence division, sought to clarify that the information-analysis efforts at TTIC are separate from the statutorily mandated analysis that must take place at the Homeland Security Department. To resolve this turf issue, Brennan proposes a separate Terrorist Screening Center -- a combining of terrorist watch lists -- because TTIC does not have the authority to decide what to do with suspected terrorists. William Parrish, acting Homeland Security assistant secretary for information analysis, said Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge supports creation of Terrorist Screening Center under FBI to meet a 1 December deadline. But added there will be a 180-day review to see how the center is doing and there will be a review of its structure and location. See item in Cyber Intelligence on New center to merge terrorist watch lists. [Those AFIO members attending the Nov. 4 Symposium at CIA will hear first-hand from Director Brennan regarding these and other important issues]
NEXT GENERATION SATELLITE OVERRUN -- The NRO has announced a major overhaul of the Future Imagery Architecture project to resolve technical problems, costing about $4 billion more than originally planned. The project consists of a constellation of satellites carrying imagery and infrared suites built by Boeing with Raytheon, Harris and Eastman Kodak as subs. The additional funding resulted from a Defense Department panel that concluded last November the program was "significantly underfunded and technically flawed" and also "not executable" unless significant program and schedule changes were made. Congress also called for a major overhaul of the satellite program last December. The total cost of the program is classified, but outside analysts have speculated it would be about $25 billion over the next two decades. Congressional sources had opined last year that the potential overrun could be as much as $8 billion through 2010. Boeing, which beat out Lockheed Martin in 1998 with the promise of a radical new design at a lower price, has about 5,000 engineers participating in the project in Seal Beach, El Segundo and elsewhere.
Projects of this sort rarely are delivered near the original agreed price, usually due to complexity and state-of-the-art design; however, the magnitude of the cost overrun in this case brought some raised eyebrows. It can only be hoped that the expected data to be delivered by the system warrants the cost. Bets, anyone? [Harvey] (Source: Los Angeles Times 6 Sept '03 by Peter Pae)
IF THESE NETWORKS GET HACKED -- America's critical transportation, power, and communications systems remain quite vulnerable and lack funds to remedy that. When the subway trains of the Bay Area Rapid Transit system rattle through tunnels under San Francisco and over elevated tracks in Oakland, Ray Mok is in control. As BART's principal network engineer, Mok has created one of the most technologically sophisticated public transportation systems on the planet, using the protocols that power the Internet to manage BART's thousands of moving pieces. [Levine NewsBits 9/16/03]
VIRUS POSES AS WINDOWS PATCH FROM MICROSOFT -- Remember this rule: Microsoft (nor most other system or security vendors) NEVER send security “patches” or files via email. Especially attachments. You must go to their official websites -- regularly -- to see if updates are needed for your computers. Counting on computer users to be naive and trusting, recent virus writers have been sending out official-looking emails appearing to come from Microsoft [a practice called “address spoofing”] with a link to a purported “Microsoft Security Page” claiming to protect your computer from new operating system flaws. [The link takes you instead to a bogus Microsoft website which immediately installs a program that infects you.] Or, the attached “patch” -- when opened -- disables your antivirus program and begins system-wide infection. Only install Microsoft patches and upgrades by going to http://v4.windowsupdate.microsoft.com/en/default.asp or, when in Internet Explorer, click the upper toolbar on TOOLS, and then WINDOWS UPDATE. In virus programs, only use their LIVEUPDATE buttons, never a link that arrives by email. (Bancroft)
NEW CENTER TO MERGE TERRORIST WATCH LISTS -- In the face of continuing criticism over numerous terrorist watch lists in use across government, Bush administration outlined plans for a new center to run a database merging those lists. Dubbed the Terrorist Screening Center (TSC), the new unit will consolidate the government's watch lists into a central repository of data available to users around the clock, said Larry Mefford, the FBI's executive assistant director for counterterrorism and counterintelligence.
[Levine NewsBits 9/16/03]
CYBERSECURITY SUMMIT TO BE HELD THIS AUTUMN -- The Department of Homeland Security is planning a National Cybersecurity Summit this November. Robert Liscouski, Assistant Secretary for infrastructure protection at DHS announced the conference at a hearing of the House Select Homeland Security Committee Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Science and R&D.
The CIA at War: Inside the Secret Campaign Against Terror by AFIO Member Ronald Kessler, Hardcover: 496 pgs, St. Martin's Press; (in stores momentarily -- announced for release 1 Oct), ISBN: 0312319320. Kessler, an investigative reporter and author of several books about CIA and FBI, describes espionage activity in Iraq that supported the March invasion that toppled President Saddam Hussein. Kessler will be a luncheon keynote speaker at the AFIO Convention on 2 November to discuss his examination of how CIA silently aided America’s war on terrorism. [early press accounts]
The Spy's Guide: Office Espionage by AFIO Member H. Keith Melton, Craig M. Pilgian, and Duane Swierczynski (Contributor), Paperback: 180 pages; Quirk Books; (expected November 2003); ISBN: 1931686602. These experts show how one can bring spying techniques into your workplace, using tactics similar to some of those used by CIA and KGB agents. [dustjacket copy]
Partners at the Creation: The Men Behind Postwar Germany's Defense and Intelligence Establishments by AFIO Member James H. Critchfield. Hardcover: 256 pgs, United States Naval Institute Press; (expected October 2003) ISBN: 1591141362. WWII veteran and longtime CIA officer James Critchfield tells incredible story of how a handful of former members of German Army General Staff, under the watchful eye of American intelligence, planned a postwar national security system. Explains role played by CIA or by Chancellor Konrad Adenauer in their secret sponsorship of certain projects utilizing Gehlen and Heusinger. Known only as "Mr. Marshall," Critchfield was the CIA officer in charge of the secret compound in Bavaria where Gehlen and Heusinger worked with their staffs to put the new intelligence and defense systems in place. [dustjacket copy]
Motives, Means, and Mayhem: Terrorist Acquisition and Use of Unconventional Weapons by John V. Parachini. Paperback: 320 pages; Rand Corporation; (expected December 2003), ISBN: 0833033204
Amerithrax: The Hunt for the Anthrax Killer by Robert Graysmith -- Hardcover, Berkley Publishing Group; (expected November 4, 2003), ISBN: 0425191907. Covers the plague of terror that arose in the wake of 9/11 -- and the relentless scientific manhunt to answer the question of who the anthrax killer was.
DEATHS IN STALIN’S CAMPS:
The Pentagon last week provided a copy of historical documents concerning the death of Stalin's eldest son in a World War II German concentration camp to Stalin's granddaughter, the Pentagon said in a press statement. The move came as part of an effort to clarify the fates of Russian and American prisoners of war since World War II. See "POW/MIA Documents Released to Russians": http://www.defenselink.mil/releases/2003/nr20030912-0444.html
CAMP DAVID ACCORDS REVISITED:
A selection of declassified documents on the Camp David summit that led to a peace treaty between Egypt and Israel in September 1978 has been published by the Jimmy Carter Presidential Library on the twenty-fifth anniversary of the summit. See "The Camp David Accords After Twenty Five Years" linked from here: http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.org/documents/index.phtml
[both from Secrecy News/S. Aftergood, 15Sep03]
The new center at Virginia Military Institute, established to study Cold War history, has been tasked to interview former intelligence officers who wish to contribute to the Oral History program. Tell your story and aid current and future historians. [Get your version in first] Inquiries to Professor Kiracofe at KiracofeCA@vmi.edu or call him at 540-464-7447 who will put you in contact with the director of the VMI CWHistory project.
AFIO’s REACTIVATED NEW YORK GREENVALE CHAPTER -- The chapter is hosting an unclassified Conference on “The Cycle of Intelligence” on Thursday, 30 October at 5:45 pm at the Cornell Club, 6 East 44th St, New York City. Panelists will be: Robert Baer -- speaking as an intelligence collector; Fred Hutchinson, as a producer; and the Hon. Richard Murphy as an intelligence Consumer. Fee: $65. Further info from: M Jacobs at MJaDIA@aol.com
EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE – Go from “Green” to “Gray” to $$$: Military-Friendly Job Fair this Friday, September 26th. Up close and personal sessions with “Corporate Gray” for the Military Community. Location: Community Cultural Center at the Northern Virginia Community College, 8333 Little River Turnpike, Annandale, VA 22003-3796.
95 Companies feature local and nationwide Jobs. Opportunity to meet face-to-face with representatives from dozens of military-friendly employers with a wide variety of positions in Defense, Information Technology, Healthcare, Retail/Services, Engineering, Financial Services, Law Enforcement, Logistics, and more. Meet with Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, AFLAC, Southwest Airlines, National Security Agency, Raytheon, Inova Health, GEICO, Xerox, and more.
Hours: Open 10 am until 2 pm. Open to all. Free admission. No pre-registration. Bring plenty of resumes! Sponsored by Competitive Edge, distributor of "From Army Green to Corporate Gray," "From Navy Blue to Corporate Gray," and "From Air Force Blue to Corporate Gray." For more information, visit www.GreenToGray.com or www.BlueToGray.com. [Greg O]
COMPUTER FORENSICS TRAINING -- Online or Classroom, take your pick. One of the hottest fields in law enforcement & corporate security fields. An intense, 150 hour, instructor lead program that teaches computer forensics and helps prepare for the Certified Computer Examiner exam. For more information see; www.cybercrime.kennesaw.edu
TED SHACKLEY'S WIDOW & CHILD IN PENSACOLA NEED YOUR ASSISTANCE: Former AFIO Board Member Ted Shackley’s widow is facing scheduling problems following catastrophic car accident of their daughter, which has caused long term hospitalization and possible brain damage. Members in the Pensacola, FL area are urged to contact Hazel Shackley if they have time to offer some assistance. 850-433-9832.
INTELLIGENCE FAILURES -- Who’s to Blame? Harry M. writes -- The blame for intelligence shortcomings must be shared by many (organizations and individuals) and the many historic errors are legion…Any enemy will maximize to the utmost his security efforts to conceal attack plans to achieve maximum tactical and strategic surprise. One must ask, “What is the answer and how to prevent a recurrence?” Those who have spent careers in intelligence know that this is not science; that 2 + 2 does not always make four; that many diverse elements of information leading to a firm conclusion are rarely present and honest guesswork is often the best one can do. All the sources of information [HUMINT, SIGINT, Imagery et al.] with classified and access limitations, make it difficult to read the minds and intentions of terrorists. Intelligence analyses must therefore be intuitive and judgmental. While the free press acts as intelligence analysts, there are major differences. The press is sheltered from classified information and, as a business, must publish to stay in business, while influencing public opinion. Intelligence analysts operate in the “silent” service and do not write for open publication. These officials must take the “slings and arrows” of the press silently and with little recourse for response. Its own response must be ever vigilant, continue to expend as much as it takes on operations, talent, skills, training, and tread that line between rash, courageous and conservative judgments. [abridged for space limitations]
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