Weekly Intelligence Notes
WIN 39-03 dtd 14 October 2003
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced by Roy Jonkers for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. RADM (ret) Don Harvey contributes articles to the WINs.
NOTE TO AFIO MEMBERS, FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES -- Your notes, thoughts, support and prayers upon the passing of my wife, my lifemate for over half a century, are deeply appreciated. Thank you. (RJ)
CONTENTS of this WIN
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DEFENSE SPECIAL OPERATIONS AND INTELLIGENCE -- A reception was held last week for the newly appointed Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict (ASD/SOLIC), Thomas W. O'Connell, who is a former CIA officer and commando as well as a former Deputy Director of US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). The OSD position oversees special operations policy and budget matters. The position has been open for the past three years, apparently caught up in competing perspectives on special operations between the White House staff and Defense. The White House reportedly tried to consolidate special operations policy with the new Homeland Security Department, but it apparently did not prevail. The first nominee was subsequently withdrawn, and Thomas O'Connell was nominated after a long delay.
SecDef Rumsfeld has given USSOCOM new powers to plan and execute operations to kill or capture terrorists worldwide, changing the mission from a planning and training command to an operational command. Not unreasonably, this transition is taking some time and has encountered snags in execution. The changed mission has also placed new requirements on Defense and USSOCOM intelligence to provide the USSOCOM with 'actionable' intelligence, allowing the Command to target Al Qaeda cells worldwide. The new secretary will implement the SecDef policy and justify the resources. (Jonkers) (WashTimes 10 Oct 03, p. A5 //B. Gertz and R. Scarborough)
US BORDER PROTECTION INTELLIGENCE -- The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is testing pilotless reconnaissance-surveillance drone aircraft (UAV's), extensively used in Iraq and Afghanistan, on the U.S.-Mexico border. The tests are being conducted in remote areas of the Sonoran Desert in Arizona, according to a spokesman for DHS's Bureau of Customs and Border Protection. They are being deployed from Fort Huachuca (Army Intelligence base) and Gila Bend, Arizona, for test flights in remote areas of the desert that have become well-known corridors for narcotics trafficking and immigrant smuggling.
Since 9/11 US border protection has been funded and taken seriously. Military hardware and techniques are used on the 2,000 mile Mexican border. American Eurocopter AS350 "A-Star" helicopters with on-board satellite tracking systems and infrared night vision capabilities to track illegal activity are being used already, and border patrol officers go on 30-day tours camped in the wilderness for deep desert patrols on foot and horseback. The reconnaissance/ surveillance UAV testing is part of this improvement. The tests are underway and a decision to deploy has not yet been made. (Jonkers) (Wash Post/Reuters 10Oct03) (http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A8444-2003Oct10?language=printer)
INDIA DEVELOPING SPACE AND MISSILE WEAPONS -- The Indian Chief of Air Staff S. Krishnaswamy stated on 7 October that work had begun to have Indian weapon platforms in space. "Any country on the fringe of space technology like India has to work towards such a (capability) as advanced countries are already moving towards laser weapon platforms in space. The IAF has started work on conceptualizing such a weapons systems and its operational command system." Like China, India is on a path to gaining international and self-respect by becoming recognized as a "great power." This does not mean that they become a "threat" (a much over-used term) to the US, but that US Intelligence as well as Strategic policymakers need to maintain a realistic and vigilant awareness of developments.
India's technology industry is booming, thanks to US out-sourcing (see Section III below). India has recently settled long-standing border disputes and acrimony with China, freeing both countries to concentrate on more active international problems. India is rapidly building a long-range naval force-projection capability, and is modernizing its nuclear ballistic missile posture by adopting a strategy of solid fuel missiles to replace its present inventory of liquid-fueled weapons. It has formed a new Strategic Forces Command. The missile forces are being built as part of the nation's Integrated Guided Missile Development program, which includes the Prihvi (short range), Agni I & II (800 / 1500 kilometer range), Akash and Nag missiles (medium and long range). Modern electronic weaponry is being purchased from Israel. Stated a spokesman, "India must do whatever it can to develop a credible deterrent to Pakistan, even if it means seeking help from Israel." India, like China, is extremely pragmatic, but each one has a dangerously emotional flashpoint of pride and power. For China, it is Taiwan. For India, it is Pakistan. (Jonkers) (The Hindu, 7 Oct 03 http://www.hindu.com/2003/10/07/stories/2003100703041200.htm)
(Def. News 6 Oct03, p. 42 www.defensenews.com // V. Raghuvanshi)
NAVAL AIRPOWER AND INTELLIGENCE IN IRAQ WAR -- For the US/UK invasion of Iraq the Navy deployed seven carrier strike groups, eight big-deck amphibs, 140 Navy combatant ships, and 21 combat logistics as well as 76 sealift ships around the world, including some 80,000 sailors and 15,500 Marines afloat. The war began on 18 March with a total of some 2,200 bombing missions. Between March 19 and April 18, naval aviators logged almost 5,000 tactical aircraft sorties and launched some 5,300 weapons. From 20-22 March aircraft flying from carriers in the Mediterranean were routed through Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but on 23 March Turkey granted flyover permission and the flights were able to take a more direct route. The flight and support crews' morale, dedication and performance were superb. Conditions were often poor, with sandstorms and poor visibility, and the aircraft were frequently refueled at dangerously low altitudes and in conditions of high turbulence. Their morale-driving mission was to prevent the launch of Scuds or the use of WMD, both portrayed as an imminent threat, but that is another story.
Some key assessments: (1) the joint approach to air operations was very effective; (2) Two aircraft, a Navy F/A-18 Hornet and a British Tornado, were (regrettably and unnecessarily) lost to US friendly-fire Patriot missile launches. (Given that there was no Iraq air force, a need for more accurate intelligence regarding the real threat, greater fire discipline, and system identification capability improvements, seem very much in order). (3) Nine manned aircraft of all types were lost to hostile ground fire. (4) Pre-battle target intelligence was good, but there were shortfalls in intelligence during the battle, caused by the dramatically improved bombing capabilities. Where in previous wars several aircraft were assigned to bomb one target, now one aircraft can precision-bomb several targets. As a result there were not enough unmanned aerial vehicles or enough sensors to provide timely bomb damage assessments to satisfy the operators. Navy Intelligence (and probably the Air Force as well), has a challenge to improve the intelligence needed to identify and provide coordinates for targets, as well as evaluating the results of the bombing, in a more timely manner during the battle. Based on experiences in previous wars, however, there probably will never be sufficient intelligence to meet all needs. (Jonkers) (Defense News 6 Oct 03, p. 48 // V. Heines)
JOINT COMMAND IRAQ OPERATIONS LESSONS -- Draft findings of a US Joint Force Command (JFC) multi-service 'Lessons-Learned' examination were discussed by Admiral Edmund Giambastiani, Commander JFC, before the House Armed Services committee. He noted that his Joint Warfare Center is just now beginning to critique the new post-war mission to bring stability and democracy to Iraq. Commanders were impressed by the greatly improved technological capability for collaborative decision-making made possible by the sheer volume of computers and satellite phones on the battlefield. Lessons-learned were divided in three groups. (1) "Needing Improvement" included fraticide prevention (fraticide remains a top concern of commanders, although there were statistically fewer friendly-fire killings than in the 1991 war), reserve mobilizations, battle-damage assessments (ISR), and coalition (i.e. inter-allied) information-sharing. (2) "60-40 winners" that could have been done better, included urban operations, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and psychological operations. (Note - Central Command blanketed Iraq with leaflets, but battlefield commanders complained they could not print surrender leaflets for the forces in front of them). (3) "Clear winners" were integration of joint forces, and the widespread use of special operations teams. As in the Navy study, it is clear that intelligence (and ISR) still have some ways to go. (Jonkers) (Def. News, 6 Oct 03, p. 70 // G. Kaufmann)
US CYBER TECHNOLOGY LOSING ITS EDGE -- Chairman of Intel Corp. Andrew S. Grove, one of the founding fathers of US high-technology industry, warned that US dominance in key technology sectors is in jeopardy, as US industry takes advantage of cheap labor costs abroad. He singled out India and China as the principal countries to watch. India in particular has a booming software industry that is increasingly doing work for US companies. India could surpass the US in software and tech-service jobs by 2010.
"Off-shoring" allows companies to get software development and other services at one-third to one-sixth of the cost. Some 500,000 technology jobs were lost from mid-2001 - 2003. Estimates predict ten percent of US information technology jobs will move off-shore next year. By 2015 the job loss is predicted to be 3.3 million jobs. Industry is torn between the market-driven need to improve profits for shareholders and the need to keep its workers and maintain/grow the nation's domestic technology industry base. Unless the Government helps to decide the proper balance, companies will continue in their policy of increasing shareholder value.
Chairman Grove also criticized the nation's overburdened patent system, which is causing an abundance of innovation-slowing litigation, and found that the nation is dangerously behind in popular use of high-speed internet connections as well as in funding for science and technology research and education. Grove chided US policymakers for ignoring the problem, saying "What is the US public policy? I am hard put to find a document outlining a policy strategy." Clearly a comprehensive national cyber policy & strategy is needed. The crucial importance of such a strategy for national security and intelligence, e.g. in terms of cyber information war, is clear to all who give this matter some thought. (Jonkers) (WashPost 12 Oct03, p. E5 //J. Krim)
US LIST OF TERRORIST WEB SITES UPDATED -- The United States has added Web sites to its list of "foreign terrorist organizations" for the first time, under the category of aliases for conventional groups. A list published in the Federal Register includes newkach.org, kahane.org, kahane.net, kahanetzadak.com as aliases for the Jewish group Kahane Chai or Kach, which is reportedly considered a terrorist organization by both the US and Israel. (Levine 10/10/03) (http://zdnet.com.com/2110-1105_2-5089602.html)
STARGATE MATERIAL RELEASED BY CIA -- John H. Taylor of the National Archives called AFIO to say that CIA just released 16,000 new pages on Stargate (remote viewing program)...all of it on CD-ROM. None of this material, however, will be available online. Researchers will need to visit the College Park branch of the National Archives at 8601 Adelphi Road, College Park, MD 20740-6001. Research Hours Monday & Wednesday 8:45 am - 5:00 pm; Tuesday, Thursday & Friday 8:45 am - 9:00 pm; Saturday 8:45 am - 4:45 pm; Closed Sundays and Federal Holidays. John Taylor is willing to answer questions about these fascinating new materials at 301-837-3041. He expects 1,500 more pages -- supposedly the final release on this topic -- in a few weeks. Further information about the Archives can be found at: http://www.archives.gov/facilities/md/archives_2.html#loc (EAB)
NCIX SECURITY POSTER --The National Counterintelligence Executive announced the release of its latest counterintelligence and security outreach poster entitled "Our Country." The poster may be viewed at http://www.ncix.gov/pubs/posters/america.php and ordered by linking to http://www.ncix.gov/feedback/pubreq.html. (S. Argubright, NCIX) (RJ)
HOMELAND SECURITY NATIONAL RESPONSE PLAN -- The Homeland Security Department has issued an initial national response plan for dealing with emergencies ranging from terrorist attacks to natural disasters. The plan made public on 10 October assigns response roles to existing agencies as well as new entities. It also creates the new post of principal federal official to deal with specific emergencies and directs that person to maintain connectivity among emergency response centers. (Levine 10/10/03) (http://www.gcn.com/vol1_no1/daily-updates/23869-1.html)
HOMELAND SECURITY DEPARTMENT PREVAILS ON LOGOS -- Twenty out of the twenty-two agencies that have been combined into the new Homeland Security Department (DHS) are slated to lose their separate organizational logos. They will be superceded by the DHS logo. Only the Secret Service and the US Coast Guard will retain their separate ones. They also are the only ones to report directly to the Secretary for Homeland Security. The others, including the Transportation Security Administration, will report to an Under-Secretary. (RJ) (Wash Post, 14 Oct 03, p. A21 //S. Kehaulani Goo)
THE WOMEN WHO LIVED FOR DANGER: The Agents of the Special Operations Executive -- by Marcus Binney [Morrow Books, October 2003, 400 pp, photographs, index, ISBN 0-06-054087-7, $26.95]. The Special Operations Executive [SOE] created by Churchill in 1940 to subvert the German's European activities, relied heavily on the women of the SOE, particularly in Italy and France. These female operatives worked as wireless operators and couriers and aided the French Resistance. Binney features four SOE women faced torture and death by the Gestapo, yet unflinchingly went about their tasks of disrupting enemy plans. This account is based on interviews, SOE archives, and secondary sources.
GHOST WARS: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and Bin Laden, From the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001 -- by Steve Coll [Penguin Press, Penguin Putnam, February 2003, 656pp, ISBN 1-59420-007-6, $27.95]. Coll is a Pulitzer Prize winning Washington Post journalist who covered Afghanistan from 1989 to 1992. The publisher says he covers in this work the long and deep U.S. involvement America has had in that region. [both books unseen by AFIO - both are forthcoming - based on publisher announcements]
FBI HOME PAGE LISTS NEED FOR INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS -- See http://www.fbi.gov/ (courtesy Bob S.)
Jim Butler writes on VIETNAM MACV SOG VETS HEALTH PROBLEM -- I just received a message that another Recon man has developed severe Pancreas problems. The percentage of pancreas disorders among the men who ran recon (in Vietnam) is incredibly high. It comes in two flavors...cancer of the pancreas and pancreatitis. Both are killers. We need to look at the wonder drugs we took in order to perform our missions and what their combination in our systems might produce as well as how they might reacted with Agent Orange. I also need to know and get the e-mail addresses of anyone who has had problems with their gall bladder, intestinal track, and especially the pancreas. The pancreas also controls the amount of insulin that the body produces hence diabetes could also be problematical to the aforementioned causes. We really need to keep track of this.
I need the names of anyone who has had these problems either living or dead who served in MacVsog as well as their unit, their position and years served. This is going to be a nightmare but I am sick and tired of getting E-mails from men who have these problems and having the VA stipulate that that they are not service connected. Please send this out to as many persons and web sites that you can think of. Jim Butler Passed on by R.Noe firstname.lastname@example.org (RJ)
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