Weekly Intelligence Notes #01-04 dtd 12 January 2004
WIN #01-04 dtd 12 January 2004
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced by AFIO for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers.
NOTE: Last call for AFIO’s Winter Luncheon.
Tuesday, 20 January 04
- Tysons Corner, VA
CDR Richard A. Mobley, USN
Dr. Michael A. Ledeen of AEI
discuss Terrorism, North Korea, and Other Potential Geostrategic Hotspots & Issues of 2004.
At the Tysons Corner Holiday Inn
When: Starts 10:30 a.m. for badge pickup. The first speaker, at 11 a.m., is CDR Mobley on the Pueblo and EC-121 incidents, and the problems with U.S. threat assessment and issues of intelligence and strategy as they relate to North Korea, as covered in his fast-paced book, "Flash Point North Korea." The post-lunch speaker, at 12:45 p.m. is Dr. Ledeen, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) who specializes in U.S. foreign and security policy. Ledeen is currently commissioner of the U.S.-China Commission.
Registration: Only $29.50 pp members and their invited guests, Sign up now via email using VISA, MasterCard or AMEX at email@example.com or phone/credit card (703-790-0320) or by fax to 703.991.1278. No registrations without payment. No walk-ins or registrations at door. Deadline is Sunday, 18 January.
These and related new intelligence/terrorism books will be available for examination and purchasing/signing.
Start the year
with your own strategic move.
Click here: firstname.lastname@example.org
wait for email message to open, type in name & registration info,
click SEND, you're done.
See you on Tuesday.
CONTENTS of this WIN
[HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents] [This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition recipients. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at email@example.com. If you use AOL, you would need AOL version 6.0 or higher to receive HTML messages, and have that feature turned on. The feature also does not work for those who access their mail using webmail.]
CARNEGIE REPORT ON WMD IN IRAQ -- The Non-proliferation Project of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace recently released an intensive 61-page study entitled WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications that provides one of the largest compilations of information regarding Iraq, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and the war to date. The Endowment describes the report as "a study that distills a massive amount of data into side-by-side comparisons of pre-war intelligence on Iraq weapons of mass destruction, the official presentation of that intelligence, and what is now known about Iraq’s programs." Effectively, the Carnegie report examines prewar intelligence statements by administration officials on pre-invasion Iraq, and is seeking to fill the void left by the intelligence oversight committees in Congress. The findings of this report are quite provocative.
According to Joseph Cirincione, a leading authority on counter-proliferation and one of the authors of this six-month study, "This is the first comprehensive review of everything [the government] knew or thought [it] knew about Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction. Cirincione poignantly concludes that "In doing that review, it becomes clear that many things we thought were working, like our intelligence assessment process, were not, and things that we thought were not working, like the U.N. inspection process, actually were." The following is a selection of the report's additional findings:
· The extent of Iraq's nuclear and chemical weapons programs was "largely knowable" before the war. Iraq's nuclear program had been dismantled and there "was no convincing evidence of its reconstitution." United Nations weapons inspectors discovered as early as 1991 that Iraqi nerve agents had lost "most of their lethality." Operations Desert Storm in 1991 and Desert Fox in 1998, coupled with U.N. inspections and sanctions, had "effectively destroyed" Iraq's capabilities to produce these weapons on a mass scale.
· Prior to 2002, the intelligence community "appears to have overestimated" the extent of chemical and biological weapons in Iraq but had a "generally accurate" picture of its nuclear and missile programs.
· It's unlikely that Iraq could have hidden, destroyed, or sent out of the country the "hundreds of tons" of chemical and biological weapons and dozens of Scud missiles that administration officials claimed were present without the United States detecting signs of them before, during or after the war.
· Intelligence assessments after 2002, coupled with the creation of the separate intelligence group in the Pentagon, "suggest that the intelligence community began to be unduly influenced by policymakers' views sometime in 2002."
· The report recommends that Congress create an independent, blue-ribbon panel to assess the quality and handling of intelligence on Iraq before the war. It suggests that Congress consider making the director of central intelligence a professional position, rather than a political appointment. The report also recommends that the Bush administration drop the doctrine of unilateral, pre-emptive war from its national security strategy unless there's a clear and imminent threat from a potential rogue nation.
To view the report in
its entirety see, "WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications":
(Minor)(D. Brown// Knight Ridder Washington Bureau, 8 Jan 04)(Aftergood// FAS, Secrecy News)( W. Pincus// Washington Post, 8 Jan 04
CURRENT RHETORIC ON WMD IGNORES FACTS -- The current air waves are full of media comments, talk show briefings, pundit analyses, politician pronouncements, and study group findings voicing a strong daily drumbeat of criticisms on the issue of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. They take several different headings the net effect of which is to reproach the CIA and Administration leaders supporting the war in Iraq. For example, one charge is that the CIA assessment reported in the prewar National Intelligence Estimate of October 2002 overstated the Iraqi conditions, responsive to White House political pressures. Another is that no stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons have yet been found.
Within the week, however, two significant spokesmen have responded in defense of the CIA Estimate. One was Stuart Cohen, the acting chairman of the National Intelligence Council which produced the NIE report on Iraq’s banned weapons. He appeared voluntarily on the January 6, 2004 ABC NIGHTLINE talk show, where he was queried by Ted Koppel. Mr. Cohen defended the integrity of the CIA analysts and their supervisors who produced the NIE report, asserting that “We did not, in any area, hype our judgments…Assertions, particularly that we had shaded our judgments to support an Administration policy were just nonsense.” When asked if the Iraqi WMD program was a threat to U. S. citizens, Cohen described a major CIA concern about the possibility of unmanned aerial vehicles being brought within reach of the United States, about the threat of dirty bombs, and the chance of undetected entry of other weapons which could damage the nation. Later the same day, Mr. Cohen delivered a similar report to Reuters in a brief telephone interview, stating that “I believe that our work was well grounded.”
The next night, Secretary of State Colin Powell was quizzed vigorously on NIGHTLINE by Mr. Koppel on the WMD issue. Secretary Powell defended vigorously his presentation before the United Nations Assembly, stating that he was presenting the considered viewpoint of the U. S. Intelligence Community which he shared with such agencies. “Today, I stand behind the judgments reported in that address to the UN," he said.
All of this debate should remind AFIO readers of our WINS report # 38-03, dated October 7, 2003, which highlighted the remarks of David Kay in his public testimony to Congressional Committees. His testimony included the following summary of the three-month search by the Iraq Survey Group for WMD. The numerous factual findings listed below have thus far been underreported by the media. We shall await further reports. They discovered…
· dozens of WMD-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations during the inspections that began in late 2002.
· a clandestine network of laboratories and safehouses within the Iraqi Intelligence Service that contained equipment subject to UN monitoring and suitable for continuing CBW (chemical and biological weapons) research.
· a prison laboratory complex, possibly used in human testing of BW agents, which Iraqi officials working to prepare for UN inspections were explicitly ordered not to declare to the UN.
· strains of biological organisms concealed in a scientist’s home, one of which could be used to produce biological weapons.
· new research on BW-applicable agents, Brucella and Congo Crimean Hemorrhagic Fever (CCHF), and continuing work on ricin and aflatoxin not declared to the UN.
· documents and equipment, hidden in scientists’ homes, that would have been useful in resuming uranium enrichment by centrifuge and electromagnetic isotope separation (EMIS).
· a line of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) not declared at an undeclared production facility, and an admission that one of their declared UAVs had been tested out to a range of 500 km, 350 km beyond the permissible limit.
· covert resources that could manufacture fuel propellants useful only for prohibited SCUD missiles, a capability cooperating Iraqi scientists were told they were to conceal from the UN.
· plans and advanced design work for new long-range missiles with ranges up to at least 1,000 km, well beyond the 150 km range limit imposed by the UN. This would have permitted targets in the Middle East, including Ankara, Cairo, and Abu Dhabi.
· clandestine attempts during late-1999 and 2002 to obtain from North Korea technology related to 1,300 km range ballistic missiles, 300 km range anti-ship cruise missiles, and other prohibited military equipment.
· a systematic sanitation of documentary and computer evidence in a wide range of offices, laboratories, and companies suspected of WMD work. The pattern of these efforts was to erase evidence, e. g., hard drives destroyed, specific files burned, equipment cleaned of all traces of use, post-conflict looting, WMD personnel crossing borders, and threats and overt acts of intimidation of Iraqi citizens.
· The survey group was threatened with a pattern of physical danger. In September 2003, there were three attacks on Iraq Survey Group facilities or teams. The ISG base in Irbil was bombed and four staffers were injured, two very seriously. A two-person team had its vehicle blocked by gunmen and only escaped by firing back through their own windshield. On September 24, 2003, the ISG headquarters in Baghdad again was subjected to mortar attack.
Source: Statement by David Kay on the Interim Progress Report on the Activities of the Iraq Survey Group (ISG) before the HPSCI and SSCI 2 Oct’03 and File: Congressional oversight (2) (Harvey)(Redding).
EX-SPIES ALLOWED TO SUE CIA -- Due to a recent ruling by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals in San Francisco, a new precedent allowing former spies/defectors to sue the CIA may have been established. Recently, when the 9th Circuit sustained the opinion of a lower court, a couple from the former Soviet bloc who say they spied for the United States was, again, allowed to pursue legal action against the CIA for allegedly failing to following through with its promises.
In this particular case, a high-ranking diplomat and his spouse from the former Communist East said they had reluctantly spied for the Central Intelligence Agency after seeking to defect. The couple eventually emigrated to the Seattle area, where, they said, the CIA promised to "always be there" for them. In 1997, the man lost his job because of a corporate merger after a decade at the company and turned to the CIA for help. The nation's foreign intelligence agency apparently decided they had rendered enough help already, causing the Doe v. Tenet legal battle to ensue.
In May of last year a three-judge panel from the Court of Appeals ruled that a court could hear the case even though the CIA wanted it dismissed. Yet, the ruling said the CIA could invoke the state secrets privilege during the case if it chose to do so. "The CIA has not invoked the state secrets privilege nor has the district court had the opportunity independently to review the invocation of such a privilege," the panel ruled in the case with one dissenting vote.
A majority of the entire 9th Circuit voted against having the full court rehear the case. Nonetheless, there were six dissenting votes on the rehearing. "If what the Does allege is true, a serious injustice has been done to them, and injustice to them is seriously harmful to the long-term security interests of the United States," the dissenting judges wrote. "Nevertheless, the judicial branch cannot right such a wrong without disclosure of the engagement's existence, which...must remain forever secret. It will not do to have word circulating in whatever former Iron Curtain country the Does come from that the collapse of its totalitarian regime was brought about partly by CIA spies and not wholly by its own people's thirst for freedom. Joshua needed spies, Lincoln needed spies, we needed spies to deal with the Soviet empire, and spies will be needed as long as there are men on earth," according to the dissenting opinion. "The CIA cannot come into court and assert the existence of a secret without revealing that there is a secret. Furthermore they argued that, "The use of spies is far more humane than some of the alternatives for dealing with serious international conflicts. And their use must remain secret."
The original 9th Circuit ruling can still be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.
(Minor)(A. Tanner//San Francisco Chronicle, Reuters)(Aftergood//FAS)
See the January 7 ruling in Doe v. Tenet here: (http://www.fas.org/sgp/jud/doe010704.pdf)
LINK ANALYSIS SOFTWARE + TWO NOVICE INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS = CAPTURE -- Two Novice Gumshoes Charted The Capture Of Saddam Hussein, reported The Wall Street Journal in an attention getting frontpage story - Their Mission: Make a List Of People With Links; On It Was 'The Source' - Lt. Angela Santana, 31, and Cpl. Harold Engstrom, 36, both with Alpha Company, 104th Military Intelligence Battalion, were ordered to"…make me a chart and find every crucial person connected to Saddam." After months of work, the two had assembled a large link-analysis chart. Next to every name on the chart was a physical description -- hair and eye color, height, facial features that stand out -- as well as details about where they were last seen or any other information that might lead to their arrest. And with an important source identified at last, it led to the capture of Saddam Hussein in his spiderhole. [WBBailey via WSJ 18Dec03] Full story at: (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1042711/posts)
Major Law Enforcement/Intelligence Link Analysis Software to examine, demo, or purchase - explore:
(http://www.i2inc.com/) and Visual Links at:
E-MAIL - ENCRYPT/SIGN, DECRYPT/AUTHENTICATE -- Enigmail v0.82.5 at (http://enigmail.mozdev.org/thunderbird.html) is a "plugin" for the mail client of Mozilla and Netscape 7.x which allows users to access the authentication and encryption features provided by the popular GnuPG software. Enigmail can encrypt/sign mail when sending, and can decrypt/authenticate received mail. It can also import/export public keys. Enigmail supports both the inline PGP format and the PGP/MIME format, which can be used to encrypt attachments.
Enigmail is cross-platform, although binaries are supplied only for a limited number of platforms. Enigmail uses inter-process communication to execute GPG to carry out encryption/authentication. It works on Platforms: Linux, MacOS, POSIX, UNIX, Windows 2000, Windows 3.x, Windows 95/98, Windows CE, Windows NT, Windows XP [JBoletta, SecurityFocus Microsoft Newsletter #170]
CIA GADGET MUSEUM HAS ROBOT FISH, PIGEON CAMERA, MORE -- When the CIA's secret gadget-makers invented a listening device for the Asian jungles, they disguised it so the enemy wouldn't be tempted to pick it up and examine it: The device looked like tiger droppings. The guise worked. Who would touch such a thing? The fist-sized, brown transmitter detected troop movements along the trails during fighting in Vietnam, a quiet success for a little-known group of researchers inside the world's premier intelligence agency. The CIA's Directorate of Science and Technology is celebrating its 40th anniversary by revealing a few dozen of its secrets for a new museum inside its headquarters near Washington. Read full AP 26Dec03 story by Ted Bridis at: (http://www.azdailysun.com/non_sec/nav_includes/story.cfm?storyID=79349)
DO SOMETHING FOR THE NATION, IN YOUR COMMUNITY -- Join the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) Program. The Community Emergency Response Team (CERT) program trains people to be better prepared to respond to emergency situations in their communities. When emergencies happen, CERT members can give critical support to first responders, provide immediate assistance to victims, and organize spontaneous volunteers at a disaster site. CERT members can also help with non-emergency projects that help improve the safety of the community. The CERT course is taught in the community by a trained team of first responders who have completed a CERT Train-the-Trainer course conducted by their state training office for emergency management, or FEMA's Emergency Management Institute (EMI), located in Emmitsburg, Maryland. CERT training includes disaster preparedness, disaster fire suppression, basic disaster medical operations, and light search and rescue operations. Over the next two years, the CERT program aims to double the number of participants, with over 400,000 individuals completing the 20 plus hours of training. Train-the-Trainer sessions will be held in all 56 states and territories over the next year to expand the program throughout the United States. Learn more by visiting the CERT homepage at: (http://www.citizencorps.gov/programs/cert.shtm)
Be part of the Community Emergency Response Teams. Join now and stay informed!:
THE DECEIVERS: Allied Military Deception in the Second World War -- This comprehensive history of Allied military deception in WWII was written by Military scholar Thaddeus Holt [former undersecretary of Defense] is scheduled for publication in June by Scribners/Simon and Schuster. But is already is generating unusual praise from tough critics - so worthwhile putting this on your "look for" lists now or pre-ordering from www.Amazon.com. Some of those comments: Sir Michael Howard: "quite magnificent...definitive... as comprehensive as it is readable and entertaining. It is an astonishing achievement, and no library of the war can afford to be without it." From Harvard's Prof. Ernest May: "A truly wonderful book!...written with authority and verve...It will be essential for the bookshelf of every serious student of World War II." From Intelligence author Rupert Allason: "As well as being written in a delightfully easy-going style, full of entertaining anecdotes about the principal players, it is an essential companion for anyone who wants to learn more about how the Axis was finally defeated in 1945... Easily the best book yet written, or ever likely to be, on the subject..." Not to miss.
TRIBULATIONS OF SADDAM TRIAL -- CIA has to be careful with Saddam interviews - via News 8 Austin, TX: WASHINGTON -- CIA interrogators are facing the possibility that parts of their questioning of Saddam Hussein could become public during an eventual trial...
SAIC To Host January 28th Defense, Intelligence and Homeland Security
Careers Job Fair
-- SAIC's East Coast
Operations will host a Defense, Intelligence and Homeland Security
Careers Open House on Wednesday, January 28th at the Tysons Corner Ritz
Carlton in McLean, VA. An active Secret Security Clearance or above is
required. Applicants possessing active Top Secret clearances and above
are highly encouraged to attend. Hiring Managers will be available to
interview qualified applicants. Opportunities are available in Virginia,
Maryland, DC, nationwide and around the world for actively cleared
professionals in the following areas of expertise: Information
Security/Technology, Defense, Engineering and Program/Project
Management. Attendees should bring multiple copies of their resumes.
Event Details: Wednesday January 28, 2004 from 4:00-8:00 PM Location:
Ritz Carlton Tysons Corner1700 Tysons Blvd. McLean, Virginia. (www.ritzcarlton.com/hotels/tysons_corner/)
For more information and directions, please visit (www.saic.com/career/intel/)
Applicants can submit a resume online to firstname.lastname@example.org
(please reference OHINTELviaAFIO in the subject line).
SM CONSULTING SEEKS ARAB LINGUISTS -- SM Consulting currently has several job openings in their Federal Division. They are seeking Arabic Linguists with a Secret clearance that are available for full-time positions and willing to go overseas in "harsh field conditions." Any candidates that would like to be considered should send their resumes immediately. The selected candidates will be eligible for over-time of up to 40 additional hours per week. The full-time compensation is up to $85,000. For prompt consideration, resumes should be sent to: email@example.com
SEEKING INFO ON CHIEF OF TECH INTEL BRANCH R&D -- "I would like to know if any AFIO members have any information about David Z. Beckler, Chief, Technical Intelligence Branch, Research and Development Board and served as liaison to CIA. Mr. Beckler held this position in the late 1940's and was a key participants on the Intelligence Advisory Committee and on early debates on the post war organization of scientific, technical and medical intelligence on the Intelligence Advisory Committee." Replies or suggestions to: Dr. Jonathan Clemente at firstname.lastname@example.org
MICHAEL WHITNEY STRAIGHT, CAMBRIDGE CIRCLE SOVIET SPY, DIES AT 87 -- The former magazine publisher who described in a political memoir his lingering involvement with Soviet spies from his days at Cambridge University, died recently of pancreatic cancer. In his memoir, "After Long Silence" (1983), he says that he was reluctant to spy when Anthony Blunt ordered him to do so in 1937. Straight assures readers that, after taking a job with Roosevelt's State Department, the only papers he passed to the Soviets were political and economic ones written by himself. The New York Times, in a good obituary at http://www.nytimes.com/2004/01/05/arts/05MSTR.html, sums up with: "…his association with the Cambridge left never ceased to haunt him, and he went on defending his actions for the remainder of his life. To the end he insisted, as he put it in a 1995 letter to The London Review of Books responding to a reference to him as "a Cambridge Spy," "I was not a spy in the accepted usage of that word." [CLaClair]
NOT TO MISS - THE FOG OF WAR -- New Documentary by Errol Morris on Robert S. McNamara and the bad decisions made during the Vietnam War. The film tells the story of this brilliant technocrat and his belated expressions of regret over the war that killed 58,000 Americans and 3 million Vietnamese. Do you now understand his decisions, or still think he was smug and self-deluding. See, decide for yourself, and let us hear your assessment post-film. The film is only playing in selected theatres nationwide during the next six weeks, available later on DVD.
WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor(s) or author(s) listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at https://www.afio.com/ for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications and much more! (c) 2004, AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303A, McLean, VA 22101. email@example.com; Voice: 703 790-0320; Fax: 703 991-1278