Weekly Intelligence Notes #03-04 6 February 2004
WIN #03-04 dtd 6 February 2004
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced by AFIO for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. Adm Don Harvey and Gene Poteat contributed to this issue.
CONTENTS of this WIN
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A LOOK AT EXPERTS' VIEWS ON "INTELLIGENCE FAILURE" - MINUS THE ELECTION SEASON SPIN:
"When the facts on Iraq are all in, we will be neither completely right nor completely wrong."
GEORGE J. TENET, the director of central intelligence [Quote of the Day, NYT 6 Feb 04]
THE DCI'S TALK AT GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Iraq and Weapons of Mass Destruction - DCI George J. Tenet's remarks as prepared for delivery at Georgetown University, 5 February 2004 can be found in full at http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/2004/tenet_georgetownspeech_02052004.html
Of note in that talk…
ON RECENT CLAIMS OF FAULTY INTELLIGENCE: "To understand a difficult topic like Iraq takes patience and care. Unfortunately, you rarely hear a patient, careful -- or thoughtful -- discussion of intelligence these days. But these times demand it. Because the alternative -- politicized, haphazard evaluation, without the benefit of time and facts -- may well result in an intelligence community that is damaged, and a country that is more at risk."
ON NATURE OF INTELLIGENCE PROCESS: "…a few words about intelligence collection and analysis -- how they actually happen in the real world. This context is completely missing from the current public debate. By definition, intelligence deals with the unclear, the unknown, the deliberately hidden. What the enemies of the United States hope to deny, we work to reveal. The question being asked about Iraq in the starkest of terms is: were we “right” or were we “wrong.” In the intelligence business, you are almost never completely wrong or completely right."
ON HISTORICAL BASIS OF WMD ASSESSMENT: "Everyone knew that Iraq had chemical and biological weapons in the 1980s and 1990s. Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against Iran and his own people on at least 10 different occasions. He launched missiles against Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. And we couldn’t forget that in the early 1990s, we saw that Iraq was just a few years way from a nuclear weapon -- this was no theoretical program. It turned out that we and the other intelligence services of the world had significantly underestimated his progress. And, finally, we could not forget that Iraq lied repeatedly about its unconventional weapons. So, to conclude before the war that Saddam had no interest in rebuilding his WMD programs, we would have had to ignore his long and brutal history of using them."
"For years the UN searched unsuccessfully for Saddam’s Biological Weapons program. His son-in-law, Husayn Kamil, who controlled the hidden program defected, and only then was the world able to confirm that Iraq indeed had an active and dangerous biological weapons program. Indeed, history matters in dealing with these complicated problems. While many of us want instant answers, this search for Biological Weapons in Iraq will take time and patience."
"We made two judgments that get overlooked these days -- We said Saddam did not have a nuclear weapon and, probably would have been unable to make one until 2007 to 2009."
"[The CIA analysts]…never said there was an “imminent” threat. Rather, they painted an objective assessment for our policymakers of a brutal dictator who was continuing his efforts to deceive and build programs that might constantly surprise us and threaten our interests. No one told us what to say or how to say it."
ON INTERNAL REEVALUATION: "I asked Dick Kerr, a former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, and a team of retired senior analysts to evaluate the Estimate. Among the questions that we as a Community must ultimately reflect on are:
· Did the history of our work, Saddam's deception and denial, his lack of compliance with the international community, and all that we know about this regime cause us to minimize, or ignore, alternative scenarios?
· Did the fact that we missed how close Saddam came to acquiring a nuclear weapon in the early 1990s cause us to over-estimate his nuclear or other programs in 2002?
· Did we carefully consider the absence of information flowing from a repressive and intimidating regime, and would it have made any difference in our bottom line judgments?
· Did we clearly tell policy makers what we knew, what we didn’t know, what was not clear, and identify the gaps in our knowledge?
We are in the process of evaluating just such questions - and while others will express views on the questions sooner, we ourselves must come to our own bottom lines."
ON CLAIMS OF HUMINT DEFICIENCIES: "To be sure, we had difficulty penetrating the Iraqi regime with human sources, but a blanket indictment of our human intelligence around the world is simply wrong. We have spent the last seven years rebuilding our clandestine service. As Director of Central Intelligence, this has been my highest priority. When I came to the CIA in the mid-90s our graduating class of case officers was unbelievably low. Now, after years of rebuilding our training programs and putting our best efforts to recruit the most talented men and women, we are graduating more clandestine officers than at any time in CIA’s history. It will take an additional five years to finish the job of rebuilding our clandestine service, but the results so far have been obvious:
· A CIA spy led us to Khalid Sheik Muhammad, the mastermind of Al Qa'ida’s September 11th attacks.
· Al Qa'ida’s operational chief in the Persian Gulf, Nashiri the man who planned an executed the bombing of the USS COLE – was located and arrested based on our human reporting.
· Human sources were critical to the capture of Hambali, the chief terrorist in South Asia. His organization killed hundreds of people when they bombed a nightclub in Bali.
So when you hear pundits say that we have no human intelligence capability … they don’t know what they are talking about."
ON IRAN AND NORTH KOREA: "Let me briefly mention Iran. I cannot go into detail. I want to assure you that recent Iranian admissions about their nuclear programs validate our intelligence assessments. It is flat wrong to say that we were “surprised” by reports from the Iranian opposition last year.
And on North Korea, it was patient analysis of difficult-to-obtain information that allowed our diplomats to confront the North Korean regime about their pursuit of a different route to a nuclear weapon that violated international agreements."
ON INTELLIGENCE PROFESSION TODAY: "[Americans]…are served by dedicated, courageous [intelligence] professionals. It is evident on the battlefields of Afghanistan and Iraq. It is evident by their work against proliferators. And it is evident by the fact that well over two thirds of al-Qa'ida's leaders can no longer hurt the American people. We are a community that some thought would not be needed at the end of the Cold War. We have systematically been rebuilding all of our disciplines with a focused strategy and care. Our strategy for the future is based on achieving capabilities that will provide the kind of intelligence the country deserves. … And at no time, will we allow our integrity or our willingness to make the tough calls be compromised."
SENATE SELECT COMMITTEE (SSCI): No politics in prewar intelligence
CNN International - World
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The Senate Intelligence Committee's review of US intelligence has found no evidence that political pressure shaped reports on Iraq before
ADMINISTRATION: President Announces Formation of Independent Commission
The White House -- Press Briefing and Executive Order http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/02/20040206-3.html
NEW YORK TIMES VIEWS
SPEECH AS ADMISSION OF ERROR TO PRE-EMPT CRITICISM:
"George J. Tenet, the director of central intelligence, acknowledged for
the first time on Thursday that American spy agencies may have
overestimated Iraq's illicit weapons capacities, in part because of a
failure to penetrate the inner workings of the Iraqi government. …In an
address at Georgetown University, Mr. Tenet presented a steadfast
defense of American spy agencies and their integrity. The speech was the
first attempt by Mr. Tenet to provide a comprehensive accounting of the
gaps between prewar intelligence on Iraq and what has been found on the
ground there, which critics have called a major intelligence failure." [from
"Tenet Concedes Gaps in C.I.A. Data on Iraq
Weapons" by by Douglas
Jehl, NYT 6Feb04] [via
See full story at: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/06/politics/06TENE.html?th=&adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1076058620-04HcpnhLOeoUmibCYkGSgQ
UK MEDIA - TENET denies CIA exaggerated warnings on Iraq arms [Guardian - UK] … The CIA director, George Tenet, yesterday denied CIA analysts were persuaded to make their assessments of Iraqi weapons programmes more alarmist by the White ...
SOUTH AFRICA - DON'T blame us - CIA tells Bush [Independent Online - Cape Town,South Africa] …Washington - Intelligence analysts never told President George Bush before the invasion of Iraq that Saddam Hussein's rule posed an imminent threat, CIA ...
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=22&art_id=qw1076025601563B223&set_id=1 [via PJK and CJLaC]
OVER-BUDGET RECON SATELLITE MAY SLIP MORE -- In public remarks last September when a Defense Science Board audit report on the "Future Imagery Architecture" (FIA) project was released, the NRO Director acknowledged that the recon satellite program was "underfunded" and "underscoped." Last month the usual "senior government officials" said the building of the next generation of recon satellites, with an original budget set at about $6 billion, was requiring an estimated $4 billion more because the program was behind schedule and over budget. The Boeing program's problems had been no secret as the Senate Select Committee for Intelligence had last summer blamed both the contractor and the program office for flaws including "mismanagement and poor planning" in addition to Boeing's inexperience problems of working in a new area. The planned new generation is to rely on smaller, more numerous and cheaper birds than the current group of about half a dozen large expensive satellites.
Although the NRO has had to scale back its expectations for the satellites' initial performance to well below what Boeing had promised, government officials and private "experts" have expressed concern the new generation will not be ready in time to take over when the current group begins to deteriorate. Several anonymous senior officials have said they thought there was still no more than a 50-50 chance that Boeing would meet its new scaled-back goal of initial launch in 2006.
It appears that FIA is another of those satellite programs that are too important and too necessary to abandon when they begin to slip and overrun. Since the future threats are likely to evolve almost anywhere on the globe, the need to provide recon coverage of widely-separated areas on unpredictable schedules probably dictates the necessity to proceed with the new approach regardless of the pain.
[Harvey / NYT 4Dec03 by Douglas Jehl]
NEW IRAQI INTELLIGENCE SERVICE FORMING -- Iraqi and American officials have announced that a new Iraqi intelligence service is in the process of being formed. The CIA will be taking the lead in the evolution for the Americans with the FBI possibly helping out with the training. Many of the new intelligence agents will be trained outside Iraq, primarily in Jordan and Egypt. The service will employ 500 to 2,000 people and is expected to be formed in the next several months. Within Iraq, the lead seems to be with the Iraqi National Accord whose leader, Iyad Alawi, heads the Governing Council's security committee and who met with the DCI in Langley in December. Ibrahim al-Janabi, a senior member of the Iraqi Governing Council's security committee, is a leading candidate to head the new service. Addressing the touchy point of how many of the new agents will come from the security forces under Hussein, al-Janabi said that fewer than five percent would be recruited from the Mukhabarat and the other security forces, and they would be vetted to weed out any guilty of human rights crimes. As currently planned, the service will fall under the Ministry of the Interior, which supervises many of the new security forces in Iraq, including the police and the border patrol. Al-Janabi said there was "nothing official" in the way of financing coming from the CIA, but the article goes on to speculate that America probably will provide some money. Many of the agents will work in the border towns of Iraq to identify foreign fighters who have slipped into the country and will monitor their activities. A spokesman for the Ministry of the Interior noted that securing the borders is crucial because "there are indications of foreign intelligence activity and attempts to infiltrate Iraqi institutions." The number of foreign terrorists in Iraq is unknown, but al-Janabi estimated there are up to 5,000 with less than a fifth of those carrying out operations with the remainder involved in financing, recruiting and other logistical activities. The American estimate is 3,000 to 5,000 guerrilla fighters in Iraq, with 5 to 10 percent of those coming from outside the country.
The formation of the intelligence service is a highly sensitive matter in light of the deadly history of Hussein's secret security forces. At least according to the reporter, it is also controversial within the Governing Council between factions with strongly differing views on the advisability of recruiting any former Hussein intelligence people. It is possible that the contending views are a reflection of the Iraqi groups inherent disagreements and also differing approaches within American officialdom. While the reporter cited two officials as sources for the bulk of the story, he did not source the sentence: "The American government secretly contributes to several intelligence services in the Islamic world with which it has close ties, including those in Jordan, Egypt, Pakistan and Algeria." It is interesting (and not curious) that a media report identifying a covert American female agent residing in the US has caused a huge media/one political party uproar while this identification of secret contributions and close ties to four Moslem intelligence agencies evokes no heartburn.
[Harvey / NYT 31Jan04, Edward Wong in Baghdad and Douglas Jehl from Washington contributing].
DON'T GET CAUGHT BY "PHISHING" -- (v.) Pronounced “fishing,” the act of sending an e-mail to a user falsely claiming to be an established legitimate enterprise in an attempt to scam the user into surrendering private information that will be used for identity theft. The e-mail directs the user to visit a website where they are asked to update personal information, such as passwords and credit card, social security, and bank account numbers, that the legitimate organization already has. The website, however, is bogus and set up only to steal the user’s information. For example, 2003 saw the proliferation of a phishing scam in which users received e-mails supposedly from eBay claiming that the user’s account was about to be suspended unless he clicked on the provided link and updated the credit card information that the genuine eBay already had. Because it is relatively simple to make a Web site look like a legitimate organizations site by mimicking the HTML code, the scam counted on people being tricked into thinking they were actually being contacted by eBay and were subsequently going to eBay’s site to update their account information. By spamming large groups of people, the “phisher” counted on the e-mail being read by a percentage of people who actually had listed credit card numbers with eBay legitimately.
Phishing, also referred to as brand spoofing or carding, is a variation on “fishing,” the idea being that bait is thrown out with the hopes that while most will ignore the bait, some will be tempted into biting. -- definition from http://www.webopedia.com/TERM/p/phishing.html
VERIFY WEBSITE PAGES BEFORE ENTERING PERSONAL INFO -- Even tech-savvy users could be fooled by the latest phishing scams, which have evolved beyond all recognition in their bid to steal credit card details, says an anti-phishing organization. Phishing attacks are reaching a point of sophistication where even the most Internet-savvy user could be fooled, said the Anti-Phishing Working Group (APWG) on Wednesday. ["Phishing" involves creating emails that request info from a place you already do busines with, and often have a link that takes you to what looks like that firm's website…luring unsuspecting consumers to what appears to be a corporate web site designed to capture information such as your SSN number, credit card number or bank account number] [RLevine/Newsbits, 5Feb04]
MICROSOFT FIXES FLAWS IN INTERNET EXPLORER THAT PERMITS PHISHING -- People using Internet Explorer versions 5.01, 5.50 and 6 are being urged to download a security patch from Microsoft's website. Open your browser, click "Tools," and selected "Windows Update." You should end up at: http://v4.windowsupdate.microsoft.com/en/default.asp
ARMY OFFICIALS UP IN ARMS OVER FAS WEB SITE
-- The U.S. Army has
apologized for threatening to prosecute this open-government advocacy
group after it republished a document copied from a military website. An
official with the U.S. Army Services and Operations Agency on Wednesday
accused the Federation of American Scientists (FAS)
of publishing a secret government document about acquiring military
hardware--before backing down a few hours later when it was clear the
document was unclassified and well-distributed throughout the
Also see: http://zdnet.com.com/2100-1105_2-5154210.html
PENTAGON SCRAPS INTERNET VOTING SYSTEM -- We reported on this plan in the prior WIN, and the outcry its announcement had triggered by computer security experts stating that the system was fraught with holes. The Pentagon apparently listened.. Citing security concerns, the Pentagon has canceled Internet voting that would have involved as many as 100,000 military and overseas citizens from seven states in November, a Defense Department official said Thursday. [RLevine/Newsbits, 5Feb04]
[IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse these inquiries or offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information. Lately however, AFIO has been receiving an unusually large number of requests for job postings. As a result, we will be -- temporarily -- expanding our "Employment Opportunities" section. Additionally, so that AFIO may better ascertain the viability of this service, we would ask that members referred to or hired for any of these postings mention AFIO as the original referring entity.]
Computational Linguist, in Annapolis Junction, Maryland. FT. Salary: $100K-$130K
Ability to take polygraph examination and maintain a Top Secret/SCI with Lifestyle Polygraph Clearance (U.S. Citizen and Immediate Family (brothers, sisters, wife, children)
Job Description: A senior computational linguist to work on intelligent document management products. Experience in programming statistical text processing or text parsing using C or C++ programming skills are required. Candidates with a Masters Ph.D. (preferred) in Computer Science or linguistics and 3+ years work experience are preferred.
Job Qualifications: Degree in computational linguistics with emphasis on lexicography. Knowledge extraction and morphological analysis. Experience with development of commercial software products. Experience with research in computational linguistics. Strong programming skills five years required. Familiarity with a large number of languages (preferably Middle Eastern/Asian) Familiarity with the analysis of large corporations. 5+ years of experience in the field of computational linguistics. Active participation in the community of computational linguistics. Familiarity with C/C++, Perl, Windows NT operating system, compression algorithm helpful. Send Resumes to firstname.lastname@example.org
DO YOU KNOW ABOUT CODE SECURITY LESSONS - RE. LESLIE HOWARD, GERMANS, and CHURCHILL"In August 2003 a research inquiry in a WIN received an encouraging response from three former intelligence officers who worked in the AEC, CIA and Naval Intelligence and who were briefed during the years 1949-1958; their code/cipher security briefers gave them each similar versions of the following 'code security lesson story', wherein it was suggested that the 1 June 1943 civil airliner flight (777A) of actor Leslie Howard on his return from neutral Portugal was shot down, though through ULTRA intelligence authorities could have warned, diverted or stopped the flight. To safeguard the ULTRA secret, the security lesson claimed, Flight 777A (BOAC/KLM) was not warned. Included in variations of the 'lesson' was the suggestion that the Germans believed Churchill might have been on that flight. Yet again I am seeking testimonies or memories of other intelligence personnel who were instructed with a version of this 'lesson' or heard of it and I would like to discover if we can confirm any names of former instructors and identify any documents which could clarify this incident's circumstances. Thank you for your assistance." Replies to Douglas Wheeler, Professor Emeritus of History, University of NH, Durham; e-mail: DougWheeler2@aol.com or via U.S. mail to 27 Mill Rd, Durham NH 03824-3006 or by phone (603) 868-9633.
HELP ON BIOGRAPHY OF WILLIAM MORGAN -- "Aran Shetterly of Brooksville, Maine (email@example.com ) is working on a biography of William Morgan, a U.S. citizen born in Cleveland OH on 19 April 1928, who became embroiled in revolutionary and counter-revolutionary activity in Cuba during the period 1958-61, ultimately being executed by the Castro regime in March 1961. Aran would welcome an opportunity to interview anyone who might have perspective on the case of this person who allegedly had ties to U.S. intelligence. Aran Shetterly is a friend and neighbor of AFIO member Bob Sargent ( firstname.lastname@example.org ). Anyone having knowledge of the Morgan case and willing to talk with Aran could contact him directly via e-mail or phone (207-829-6201). One also might channel perspective on the Morgan case to Aran via Bob Sargent who would source only to a knowledgeable AFIO member."
NOVELIST SEEKS BLURBS FROM INTEL PROS -- Jonar Nader, author of several bestsellers, based in Sydney, Australia writes: "I am trying to contact former or current agents of the FBI, CIA, MI5, and MI6 or similar intelligence organisations, including the KGB and Mossad. One of my previous books is called ‘How to Lose Friends and Infuriate Your Boss’. This is a serious publication, and on the front cover is a comment from the current Chief of The Australian Defence Force, General Peter Cosgrove AC MC. More about my books and company at www.Logictivity.com.
"I am now working on a new action thriller novel that is original and suspenseful. I have had ‘in-principle’ agreements from several prominent intelligence officials and defence personnel. They will provide me with comments for my next cover because they, like IOs, are at the forefront of world and national affairs, and they would understand the important messages that are in my book. The book lends itself to approximately 10 other comments from current and former chiefs, officers, or agents, and I wondered if AFIO members would be willing to read the book, or a detailed synopsis of it, or discuss aspects of it with me. Then, if appropriate, those individuals would be invited to write a very short comment or reaction or opinion about the storyline or its philosophy or impact on our world. The novel is a commercial action thriller. However, I am a philosopher and educator, and the novel is designed to be thought-provoking. It involves a secret service organization, even though it does not name it, and even though the story is not about the secret service. If you feel that this might interest you or your colleagues, I would be pleased to correspond with you. Replies & Inquiries to: [No further responses are needed. The matter has been closed. Thank you for your strong replies to this inquiry].
Leaders and Their Followers in a Dangerous World: The Psychology of Political Behavior (Cornell University Press, April 04, $29.95) by Jerrold M. Post, Professor of Psychiatry, Political Psychology and International Affairs and Director of the Political Psychology Program at The George Washington University. This former 21-year CIA psychiatrist evaluates such leaders as Osama bin Laden and Fidel Castro.
Getting Away with Murder: The Real Story Behind American Taliban John Walker Lindh and What the U.S. Government Had to Hide (Arcade Books, April 04, $25) by Richard D. Mahoney investigates the death of CIA Covert Ops Officer Mike Spann and the case of the "American Taliban."
Dark Victory: America's Second War Against Iraq (Naval Institute Press, April 04, $24.95) by Jeffrey Record. This national security analyst critiques the origin, objectives and consequences of the U.S. war against Iraq.
A War of a Different Kind: Military Force and America's Search for Homeland Security (Naval Institute Press, April 04 $32.95) by Stephen M. Duncan. Duncan, a former Pentagon official, draws on a lifetime of military and legal experience to evaluate the role of the armed forces in homeland security.
Imperial Hubris: Why the West Is Losing the War on Terror (Brassey's, May 04, $27.50) by Anonymous. An unnamed member of the U.S. intelligence community claims that we are losing the war on terror, and explains why.
Enigma: How the Poles Broke the Nazi Code (Hippocrene Books, March 03, $22.50) by Wladyslaw Kozaczuk and Jerzy Straszak offers a history of the Polish solution to the German cipher and its use by French and British intelligence.
Inside Al Qaeda: How I Infiltrated the World's Deadliest Terrorist Organization (Thunder's Mouth Press, April 04, $13.95) by Mohamed Sifaoui is the diary of an undercover journalist.
Shadow Divers: How Two Americans Discovered Hitler's Lost Sub and Solved One of the Last Mysteries of World War II (Random House, July 04, $26.95) by Robert Kurson. A sunken German U-boat is discovered off the coast of New Jersey in 1991.
MAKE THIS ELEGANT CLUB YOUR WASHINGTON BASE -- DACOR (Diplomatic and Consular Officers, Retired) welcomes membership applications from retired or current officers of federal agencies whose principal focus is foreign affairs. Members can use the historic DACOR Bacon House at 1801 F Street, N.W., located a short walk from the State Department, the White House, the World Bank, and metro. Bacon House is a magnificent Federal-style building, dating back to 1825 that provides a convenient venue to meet friends and colleagues. DACOR offers members a rich program of luncheons, lectures, receptions, and cultural events. It provides an attractive and affordable place for members to host private social events. And it offers overnight accommodations at reasonable rates. DACOR is open to retired, former and active duty members of the Foreign Service, Commerce, USTR, CIA, DIA and other federal agencies concerned with international relations. Membership applications can be found at the DACOR web site www.dacorbacon.org.
HEADING TO SUNNY FLORIDA? HEAR INTELLIGENCE HISTORIAN WALLER - AN AFIO "Great Professor": Tuesday, 17 February 04 - Coral Gables, FL - AFIO Miami-Dade Chapter hosts dinner meeting at La Palma Restaurant, 116 Alhambra Circle, Coral Gables, FL. Evening features John Waller, retired OSS and CIA Officer, AFIO Board Member, and author of numerous Books on Intelligence history. Event begins at 7 pm. Space Limited. RSVP via US Mail only to AFIO c/o Michelle Ramirez, Spencer & Klein, PA, Two Alhambra Plaza, PH II-B, Coral Gables, FL 33134. Include pre-payment of $35 per person [payable to: “AFIO Miami-Dade Chapter”]. Questions: 305-446-5711
WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor(s) or author(s) listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at https://www.afio.com/ for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications and much more! (c) 2004, AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303A, McLean, VA 22101. email@example.com; Voice: 703 790-0320; Fax: 703 991-1278