Weekly Intelligence Notes #05-04 24 February 2004
WIN #5-04 dtd 24 Feb 2004
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced by AFIO for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers. Adm Don Harvey and Gene Poteat contributed to this issue.
Ryszard Kuklinski: Patriot & Spy
An espionage classic as told by his CIA case officer, the intelligence analyst, and the reporter who knew him.
A mini-Colloquium at the
AFIO SPRING LUNCHEON
FRIDAY, 30 April 2004
Three presenters who knew him firsthand:
Benjamin Weiser, New York Times reporter and author of the just-published, “A Secret Life” (Public Affairs);
Jim Simon, the CIA Analyst;
and David Forden, the CIA Case Officer called “Daniel” provide,
"a rare look at a single human intelligence operation...which reflected every aspect of the intelligence process."
Time: 10:30 a.m. for badge pick-up.
Weiser speaks at 11 am; lunch at noon;
all three panelists at 12:45 to close at 2 pm.
$30/person - current AFIO members and their guests, only.
Reserve right away with Visa, MasterCard or AMEX via email to email@example.com, by fax to 703.991.1278, or by voice to 703.790.0320.
Weiser's just-released "A Secret Life" ... is an "epic spy story -- uplifting, inspiring, and amazing in its
factual detail" will be on sale, along with other newly released
Intelligence Officer review of Weiser book is on AFIO website at:
THIS IS ONE NOT TO MISS.
WE NEED THE BRITISH SAS -- Although the American Special Forces that are leading the global fight against terrorism have witnessed large increases in their operational utilization and flexibility, these developments have not exactly been contemporaneous for other similar forces. The British Special Air Service (SAS) and the related Special Boat Service (SBS) --the most elite of Britain's commandos-- seem to be experiencing the opposite phenomenon of the blossoming US Special Operations Command. While American Special Warfare teams have been --in some cases-- tripling in both size and deployment over the last few years, the SAS has recently seen its members "quitting in droves" and is expecting to lose a full squadron (64 of 350) by the end of this year. Adding to what is seen as a looming crisis, the Hereford-based 22 SAS Regiment has recently lost 24 troops on secondment to the Special Boat Service, and more are expected.
The SAS's combat arm is made up of four small company-sized units of roughly 65 men, known as Sabre squadrons. Others serve in support and command groups or carry out "secondments" to other Army or government organizations. The most highly coveted assignment for British Special Forces belongs to "The Increment," or the hand-picked unit of SAS men who serve in clandestine combat operations for MI5 and MI6. Despite SAS and SBS's historical success and universal reputation for being among the world's best however, a growing concern among many soldiers who have abandoned the SAS/SBS career track is that they are "not getting the tasks [they] used to." Many have asserted that "the Defence Ministry is too risk averse," that "now the Americans have all the plum jobs," and while the SAS/SBS "still get the sexy kit, [they] are not seeing enough action which is why [they] joined the SAS." Unfortunately for the UK however, as in the U.S., demand for these highly skilled professionals remains unprecedentedly high.
Regardless of demand or morale, the more tangible reason for leaving SAS/SBS seems to be, quite simply, money. Considering the alternatives shows that an experienced member of the SAS who makes a typical £30,000 (minding exchange rates) annually, could likely make that much within just a few months working private security in Iraq --while not necessarily forfeiting much exposure or access to 'the action.' And while the lack of appropriate funding or compensation can quickly lead to a loss of morale, so too can over-funding or wastefulness. The Ministry of Defense recently was revealed to have overspent on highly-priced, questionable equipment such as the Eurofighter, the Typhoon warplane, Nimrod reconnaissance planes, Astute submarines, and Brimstone anti-tank missiles --purportedly accounting for 87 per cent of the cost overrun-- by £3.1 billion. This overspending occurred apparently amidst concerns over shortages in tactical equipment and less expensive necessities for SAS/SBS teams (let's hope US Task Force 121 doesn't hear about the American Comanche debacle).
Moreover, if British Special Forces are quitting, morale is actually low, and mismanagement is leading to wastefulness and misplaced priorities; a quite untimely chink in this armor worn by the free world in its global assault on terrorism may exist. With regard to this issue, Britain is facing an important and difficult challenge because simply appropriating funds to these and other 'black ops' programs will not guarantee success. As Americans are slowly learning, an impetus is often needed that promotes enthusiasm for these special, sometimes less publicly accountable, programs and capabilities. For U.S. allies, the direct impact of a personal 9/11/01 notwithstanding, a level of enthusiasm equivalent to contemporary America's might be hard to conjure. [Minor](T. Newton Dunn// Defence Correspondent, (Mirror.co.uk) Jan 24 2004)
HPSCI REPORT ON NON-MANIPULATION OF INTELLIGENCE -- The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman, Porter J. Goss, recently spoke to the press regarding the finding of his committee after a months-long review that no evidence has been turned up that senior administration officials distorted facts to strengthen the case for invading Iraq. This is only the beginning report from the various groups (seven by latest count) looking into the performance of the intelligence community prior to the invasion and the use the administration made of the resultant intelligence product. Rep. Goss told reporters there is "absolutely no evidence that the intelligence was manipulated, distorted or in any way shaped or morphed to suit a preordained purpose." [An internal review and statements of the principal intelligence producers had already indicated no heavy political pressures on the intelligence estimators.] The House committee chairman, addressing the question of possible political distortion of the intelligence by the nation's leaders said he "would suggest they (the most recent of the investigations, a nine-member, nonpartisan commission appointed by the president) ought to focus their energies on something that matters rather than on something that's settled." He told the media that the most pressing question raised by House Republicans after he briefed them on the progress of his committee's review was why prewar intelligence wasn't more on the mark on WMD in Iraq. "The answer, I think, probably is because we didn't have enough dots on the table for the analysts to draw a clear enough picture for our policy-makers," he said. Expanding on the question, he noted the US focused on domestic issues during the mid-1990s with a weaker link between intelligence and the White House than that tie since 9/11. "Not only did we not invest in intelligence, we willfully disinvested in intelligence. We cut back the number of capabilities that we had on a global basis very dramatically," Rep. Goss said. He also mentioned that one has to get next to terrorists to get information on their intentions and that without people who have very close access, "the chances of stopping something like a 9/11 are very difficult."
As might have been anticipated from the bulk of the media with its own, largely-untroubled-by-facts notions of the performance of the intelligence community, the Chairman's remarks have been accorded minimal coverage. Such reticence regarding subsequent reviews, assuming they are more negative, is unlikely.
[Harvey](Washington Times 12 Feb '04, pg. 4 // Guy Taylor)
CIA TO PUBLISH CYBERTERROR NIE -- CIA will combine input from FBI, DHS and DoD this week and will release first classified National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on the threat of cyberterrorism against US critical infrastructures. News about the estimate, which was first requested in March 2000 by a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, came during a Senate Judiciary subcommittee hearing on cyberterrorist threats and capabilities. Members of the Senate Subcommittee on Terrorism, Technology and Homeland Security expressed concern that the DHS has not focused enough high-level attention on the threat posed by terrorist-sponsored cyber disruptions or physical attacks against critical cyber infrastructures. Senator Diane Feinstein said she was troubled by the decision to move the position once held by former cybersecurity czar Richard Clarke from the White House to where it now sits, several layers down in the DHS bureaucracy. She questioned the extent to which Amit Yoran, the director of the National Cyber Security Division at the DHS, can influence the overall national homeland security strategy. Yoran, however, said the DHS does not view cybersecurity as a separate entity, but "one element" of a larger critical infrastructure protection strategy. Senator John Kyl quizzed Yoran about the cyberthreats posed to the US by both nation-states and terrorist organizations. Yoran was unable to provide any answers and relied instead on supporting testimony from John Malcolm, deputy assistant attorney general at the Justice Department, and Keith Lourdeau, deputy assistant director of the FBI's Cyber Division. Lourdeau said the FBI's assessment indicates cyberterrorist threats are "rapidly expanding," and predicted "terrorist groups will either develop or hire hackers, particularly for the purpose of complementing large physical attacks with cyberattacks".
Malcolm urged the committee "not to allow the provisions [of the USA Patriot Act] to sunset," adding that key provisions of the law, including those that permit courts to issue nationwide search warrants for electronic communications, are "essential to any prosecution of cyberterrorism." [DVerton / Computerworld] www.computerweekly.com
EXPLOIT BASED ON LEAKED WINDOWS CODE RELEASED -- The first new security
vulnerability to emerge from last week's Microsoft source code leak crossed
a security mailing list over the weekend, reigniting debate over the
seriousness of the leak. The vulnerability affects Internet Explorer 5 and
various versions of Outlook Express. It was unearthed in code the two
programs use to process bitmap image files, and affects the software on
several versions of Windows, including 98, 2000 and XP. While some systems
appear to be immune to the glitch, a proof-of-concept exploit that was
posted to the Full Disclosure mailing list crashes Outlook Express 6 on
Windows XP systems. Service Pack 1 appears to correct the vulnerability. The
exploit is a carefully-constructed bitmap file that "clobbers the stack"
with data when opened in a vulnerable application, according to the author
of the exploit, who calls himself "GTA." By
corrupting a targeted system's memory in a controlled way, an attacker could
likely use the flaw to execute arbitrary code on a vulnerable machine.
Full story at http://www.securityfocus.com/news/8060
[IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse these inquiries or offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information.
FBI INTELLIGENCE ANALYSTS POSITIONS -- FBIHQ - Washington, DC Counterterrorism, Counterintelligence, Cyber and Criminal Divisions - The FBI has recently announced the following positions. Two have deadlines of week, and the other two are open for a few more months.
1. INTELLIGENCE ANALYST - GS 11, 12 and 13 positions are open. [$49,479 - $91,672 (GS 11/12/13)] Application closes at midnight tonight [2/25/04]
2. INTELLIGENCE ANALYST - GS 11, 12 and 13 positions are open. [$49,479 - $91,672 (GS 11/12/13)] Application closes at midnight Thursday evening [2/26/04]
3. INTELLIGENCE ANALYST SUPPORT GS 7 through 14 - $33,431 - $108,335 (GS 7/9/11/12/13/14) Application closes at midnight September 30, 2004.
4. INTELLIGENCE ANALYST - GS 7 through 14 - $33,431 - $108,335 (GS 7/9/11/12/13/14) Application closes at midnight September 30, 2004.
NATIONAL DRUG INTELLIGENCE CENTER -- The National Drug Intelligence Center (NDIC) in Johnstown, Pennsylvania is currently recruiting for Intelligence Research Specialists GS-0132-7/13 for our Document Exploitation Division. The vacancy announcement, #215-ND-04 opens on Sunday, February 29, 2004 and closes on May 28, 2004.
NDIC Intelligence Research Specialists rapidly extract and analyze perishable intelligence from seized evidence and provide real-time intelligence support to national impact investigations. This position requires considerable travel. Applicants will be required to sign a Mobility/Travel Agreement as a condition of employment. For detailed information and instructions to apply, please visit our website at www.usdoj.gov/ndic.
CIA HAS UPDATED THE CAREER PORTION OF THE WEBSITE -- New descriptions and Flash videos for career areas and new format for position notices. Open a new world of opportunity at (http://www.cia.gov/employment/index.html) or try (http://www.cia.gov/employment/cardir.html) to skip flash video intro.
BOOKS OF INTEREST:
PIERCING THE VEIL OF SECRECY by Janine M. Brookner (Carolina Academic Press), discusses the obstacles she says CIA employees face in pursuing cases against an agency where personnel records are classified. Ms. Brookner, who once had (and won) her own legal dispute with CIA, argues that CIA and other intelligence agencies hold an unfair legal advantage in workplace disputes. Lawyers representing employees must obtain security clearances to read and discuss personnel files and related documents. But they must receive those clearances from the CIA -- giving the agency inordinate control over the lawyers representing their employees. See James Risen NYT article "Ex-Officer's Book Attacks C.I.A. Legal Tactics" at http://query.nytimes.com/mem/tnt.html?tntget=2004/02/21/politics/21BOOK.html&tntemail0=&pagewanted=print&position=
IF THE BOMB GETS OUT OF HAND: FEDERATION OF AMERICAN SCIENTISTS RELEASES NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE BOOK - "ONE WORLD OR NONE," published in 1946, was an early assessment of the threat posed by nuclear weapons. A 1946 Tribune review called the work "an illuminating, powerful, threatening and hopeful statement which will clarify a lot of confused thinking about atomic energy." Others disagreed. "You cannot intelligently discuss the atomic bomb except against the background of present political realities," including the looming threat from the Soviet Union, according to an ABC News critique, and the authors displayed "a terrifying unawareness of politics." The scientist contributors were deemed much better at evoking the atomic nightmare than at prescribing remedies. Those contributors included Hans Bethe, Albert Einstein, J. Robert Oppenheimer, Niels Bohr, Leo Szilard and others. Of special interest in 2004 is the piece by Philip Morrison on 'If the Bomb Gets Out of Hand.' Priced in 1946 at a dollar, the FAS 'One World or None' sold a hundred thousand copies. The full text of is now available at: http://www.fas.org/oneworld/index.html [Aftergood / Secrecy News 2/25/04]
THE SECRET WIRELESS WAR: The Story of MI6 Communications 1939-1945, by Geoffrey Pidgeon [privately published], a former member of MI6’s Section VIII. A large, beautifully bound and richly illustrated coffee table sized book, it tells the story of MI6’s wartime wireless communications with many new revelations on ULTRA (Enigma) intelligence, the structure and operations of MI6’s Section VIII, the story of Black Propaganda and Aspidistra and the exploits of many of the individuals involved with possibly the most important UK wireless traffic in WWII. Available from Geoffrey Pidgeon, 3 Arundel House, Courtlands, Sheen Road, Richmond, Surrey TW10 5AS England. E-mail firstname.lastname@example.org [DanM]
THE CONDOR YEARS: How Pinochet and His Allies Brought Terrorism to Three Continents by John Dinges [New Press, $25.95 HC, ISBN: 1-56-584764-4, February 04]. When a Spanish judge pressed charges against Gen. Augusto Pinochet in 1998, the case broke an international code of silence on the fates of the tens of thousands of Latin Americans who were tortured and killed during more than a decade of dictatorship in Chile and neighboring countries. The United States agreed to Spain's request for 60,000 pages of secret files on Chile, including CIA operational files. Former NPR news managing editor Dinges (Our Man in Panama), who lived in Chile and was interrogated in a secret torture camp during the Pinochet dictatorship, pored through those files and reports on the story of Operation Condor, a Chilean-led conspiracy among six South American dictatorships to hunt down and eliminate leftist rebels and their sympathizers -- a murderous hunt that included the 1973 Washington, DC assassination of Chilean exile Orlando Letelier. Dinges describes a Secretary of State Kissinger presenting a public pro human rights stance, while behind closed doors, reassuring Latin America's dictators they have unimpeded U.S. support. The account is full of vivid stories: double agents, wet affairs, and cynical or burned out U.S. diplomats. Dinges's study is a cautionary tale for today's war on terror which shares a major anniversary with the 1973 Chilean coup that brought Pinochet to power: September 11. [PubWeekly]
THE SPYING GAMES: The Secret History of British Espionage, by Michael Smith, ISBN: 1-84275-004-6 Paperback edition by Politico’s Publishing, UK, of a HC edition that appeared in 1996 under title: New Cloak, Old Dagger, published by Victor Gollancz. This edition: 502 pgs, SC, Photographs, Index, Bibliography, 3 Appendices. Review forthcoming.
SPIES FOR NIMITZ: Joint Military Intelligence in the Pacific War by Jeffrey M. Moore [Naval Institute Press, March 2004, 1-59114-488-4, $29.95 HC; 336 pp, 35 maps, 13 illustrations, Notes, Bibliography, Index]. Moore provides examples of intelligence successes, failure, and inadequacies, showing that the events of nearly sixty years ago provides lessons equally valid today. But have we learned these lessons? Moore profiles the history and operations of America’s first effective, all-source, joint military intelligence agency known as JICPOA [Joint Intelligence Center, Pacific Ocean Areas]. JICPOA is credited with providing Adm. Nimitz with intelligence needed to win the Pacific War. He shreds out differences between faulty versus effective intelligence and the integration of intelligence and operational plans -- pertinent to today’s military ops against terrorism. “We will never learn the right lessons and take the appropriate corrective measures if our default reaction is simply to cry ‘intelligence failure.’” -- BG Michael Ennis, USMC
BOOKS RECEIVED but not reviewed:
INTO THE MOUTH OF THE CAT: The Story of Lance Sijan, Hero of Vietnam by Malcolm McConnell [W.W. Norton, NY, 0-393-32548-2, $13.95 PB, HC in 1985; PB in 2004]
AN EVENING OF SPY MUSIC - AFIO's NIGHT AT THE BOSTON POPS -- Filling up fast. AFIO Night at the Pops - June 19, 2004 at Symphony Hall. Conductor Keith Lockhart leads Boston Pops Orchestra in an exciting evening full of surprises including James Bond spy themes. The event begins at 6 o’clock with a pre-concert hors d’oeuvres reception and a glamorous sultry-spy fashion show by Boston's renowned Yolanda. Register NOW online at before event sells out. For more information on event, contact Event representative, GaryW at WassinRichland@aol.com
EVENT -- Wednesday, April 28, 2004 - Arlington, VA - HOMELAND DEFENSE TRAINING CONFERENCE: Transportation and Border Security at NRECA Executive Conference Center in Arlington, VA. Keynote: Asa Hutchinson, Under Secretary, Border and Transportation Security, DHS. To obtain current information on speakers, facility arrangements and other information about this conference, call our conference hot line at 703-807-2027. Other speakers: Donald Mancuso, Director of Corporate Security, U.S. Airways, Commissioner Robert C. Bonner, DHS - Customs and Border Control, RADM Larry Hereth, Director of Port Security, USCG; Michael Oraze, U.S. Customs and Border Patrol; and Congressman David Camp. Industry - $595, Small Business ($100 employees or less) - $395, Government - $295. Call 703-807-2753 and speak with Maurice Martin at Market*Access International, 4301 Wilson Blvd. #1003, Arlington, VA 22203.
THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT EVENT: Teex & Texas Center For Homeland Security Of The Lamar Institute Of Technology Dr. Robert Krienke, President hosts THREAT & RISK ASSESSMENT April 6, 7, 8, 2004 8am to 5 pm in The Cardinal Room (153) at Montagne Center at Lamar University. Reservations: Contact Dennis White (409) 880-1713 or E-Mail email@example.com
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