WIN #24-04 dtd 12 July 2004

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced by AFIO for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers.

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AFIO Summer Luncheon

10:30 a.m. to 2 p.m.
Friday, 20 August 2004

Holiday Inn, Tyson's Corner, VA

Speaker: James L. Pavitt, DDO, CIA
and a second, morning speaker, t.b.a.

Prior luncheon sold out.
Postcard will be sent to all current members
in DC / MD / VA. Out of this area or can't wait?
Reserve Now by sending charge info & names/numbers of guests
to afio@afio.com
$30 per person

Make Flight & Room Reservations Now:

AFIO's special Fall Symposium/Convention

29 October through 31 October

at a variety of secure locations near Baltimore, MD.

Some of the seminars and all lodging will be at the academic campus

of The National Maritime Center / www.ccmit.org

5700 Hammonds Ferry Rd, Linthicum Heights, MD 21090.

Room reservations [$105/nite] should be made as soon as possible

by calling Toll Free: 866-629-3196.

[or at 410-859-5700].

All rooms come with special continental breakfasts.

Make your flight reservations now to arrive at BWI Airport by Thursday evening 28 October. Plan for arrival on 28 October with departure at noon on the 31st.

Further details on the program in coming months.

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CONTENTS of this WIN [HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents] [This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition recipients. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. However, due to recent changes in AOL's security standards, members using AOL will not be able to receive HTML formatted WINs from AFIO and will thus be receiving our Plaintext Edition. The HTML feature also does not work for those who access their mail using web mail. NON-HTML recipients may view HTML edition at this link: < https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm >

SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

    Senate Report as Harsh as Expected

    Tenet Departs CIA Amid Praise and Cheers from Staff and Friends
 

SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

    U.S. Seeks Clues to Qa’ida Plans in Groups Arrested Overseas

    U.S. Employed Israeli Interrogators

    GRU Upset By Qatar’s Imprisonment of Two of Its Officers
 

SECTION III -- CYBER INTELLIGENCE

    DHS Deploys New IT System

    5 Brothers Convicted of Selling Computers to Libya, Syria

    Vietnam Convicts Cyberdissident
 

SECTION IV -- BOOKS, SOURCES, AND ISSUES

    Books

        A Bleak View of Iraq

        What It Was Like in Baghdad

        Rapid Response Force for Disease

        Growing Up in an FBI Household

    Issues

        Diplomats vs. Green Berets

        CIA Vet Says IC Needs a “Joint” Structure

SECTION V -- NOTES, LETTERS, QUERIES AND COMING EVENTS

    Notes

        DHS Call for Proposals on Behavioral, Social Aspects of Terrorism

        Mulla Omar Hangs Up on Afghan Intel

        Death of Sue Powers - wife of U-2 Pilot Francis Gary Powers

    Careers

        Executive Opportunity with National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

    Coming Events

        21 July - Institute of World Politics Hosts Open House

        26 - 29 Sept - Joint meeting USMC Tri-Association Intelligence Committee

        8 - 9 Oct - East Lyme, Ct -- New England Chapter, Naval Cryptologic Veterans Association reunion

        AFIO Luncheon - 20 August 2004 - James Pavitt, CIA - DDO

        AFIO Fall Symposium at ....

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SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

SENATE REPORT AS HARSH AS EXPECTED - The Senate Intelligence Committee said on 9 July that the most pivotal assessments used to justify the war against Iraq were unfounded and unreasonable, and reflected major missteps by American intelligence agencies, the New York Times reported. www.nytimes.com/2004/07/10/politics/10INTE.htm

    The report paints a devastating picture of amateurism and insouciance in the CIA's operation, from its collection of information, to its analysis, and reliance on uncorroborated sources and false information, the Daily Telegraph (London) commented the same day.
www.opinion.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/10/wcia110.xm  "A series of failures, particularly in analytic trade craft, led to the mischaracterization of intelligence," the report said.

    The Telegraph cited the words of Sen. Pat Roberts, the Republican who heads the committee, when he introduced the report:

"One fact is now clear. Before the war the United States intelligence community told the president, as well as the Congress and the public, that Saddam Hussein had stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons, and if left unchecked would probably have a nuclear weapon during this decade.

Well today we know these assessments were wrong. And as our inquiry will show, they were also unreasonable and largely unsupported by the available intelligence."

    A CIA assessment of Iraq's WMD given to the public was exaggerated and distorted when compared with what it told Congress only days earlier, according to the Senate report released last week, the Washington Post reported on 12 July. ( www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43220-2004Jul11.html )

    A 28-page White Paper, released by the agency on 4 Oct. 2002, was the public's only look at the intelligence that policymakers used to decide whether Iraq posed enough of a threat to warrant immediate military action. But the public reported turned estimates into facts, left out or watered down the dissent within the government about key weapons programs, and exaggerated Iraq's ability to strike the United States, the investigation by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence found.

    Roughly one-fifth of the 511-page version of the report made public by the committee on Friday was redacted, reflecting material deleted at the insistence of the CIA from a classified version on which the panel finished work in May. ( www.nytimes.com/2004/07/10/politics/10INTE.htm )

    In 117 separate conclusions, the committee laid the blame squarely on what it portrayed as a sloppy, dysfunctional intelligence structure. The report was the harshest Congressional indictment of the IC since the Church Committee report of the mid-1970's on abuses of power by the CIA.

Among the findings, endorsed by all nine Republicans and eight Democrats on the committee, was a failure to "accurately or adequately explain the uncertainties" behind their judgments, particularly those spelled out in the 2002 NlE, which stated conclusively that Iraq possessed chemical and biological weapons program and was reconstituting its nuclear program. That approach, the committee said, violated what had long been understood in the IC to be the central responsibility of "clearly conveying to policy makers the difference between what intelligence analysts know, what they don't know, what they think, and to make sure that policy makers understand the difference."

    A "group think" dynamic inside the IC generated, from the mid-1990's, "a collective presumption that Iraq had an active and growing weapons program." This internal bias, the report said, prompted analysts, collectors and managers in the CIA and other agencies "to interpret ambiguous evidence as being conclusively indicative of a WMD program as well as ignore or minimize evidence that Iraq did not have active or expanding weapons of mass destructions programs."

    The report also concluded that the IC was over-reliant on defectors and foreign intelligence agencies for information that they were unable to check, the Telegraph reported.

    Roberts denounced what he called "a broken corporate culture and poor management that cannot simply be solved by additional funding and personnel." At a hastily called press conference at the CIA on 9 July, John McLaughlin (who became acting DCI on 11 July) said "I don't think we have a broken corporate culture at all." (DKR)

TENET DEPARTS CIA AMID PRAISE AND CHEERS FROM STAFF AND FRIENDS - In a rousing valedictory 8 July before cheering colleagues and friends at CIA headquarters, departing DCI Tenet defended the embattled organization he has run for seven years, the Washington Post reported 9 July.

(www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37670-2004Jul8.html )

    "The American people know about your honesty and integrity, of your commitment to truth," the Post reported Tenet as saying. Predicting that the public will recognize and honor the CIA's overall record, Tenet added, "My only wish is that those whose job it is to help us do better show the same balance and care: in recognizing how far we have come; in recognizing how bold we have been; in recognizing what the full balance sheet says."

    Tenet’s resignation became effective on 11 July, the seventh anniversary of his becoming DCI. Tenet’s praised his top deputy, John McLaughlin, as what he called a brilliant, caring leader. McLaughlin has taken over as acting DCI.

    At a two-hour ceremony on 8 July, during which his tenure was hailed by senior colleagues for raising the agency from the doldrums when he took over in 1997, Tenet said: "We have rebuilt every aspect of our business."

    "If people or leaders want to take you back in a different direction," Tenet told agency officials, "then it is your voices that must be heard to say -- we know better and we're not going to put up with it."

    "History," Tenet said, "may bring additional perspective, additional clarity, to the current debate on intelligence. But this much is clear right now: Your work is far too important for distractions." The last was an apparent allusion to the severe criticism of the agency in a Senate report released on 9 July.

    Tenet has said he is stepping down for personal reasons, and in particular to spend more time with his family, including his only son, who will be a high school senior next year and who was in second grade when his father began work at the C.I.A. in 1995, as deputy director, the Post said.

    Tenet's length of service as DCI was second only to that of Allen Dulles, who held the job under Presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy. (DKR)

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SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

U.S. SEEKS CLUES TO QA’IDA PLANS IN GROUPS ARRESTED OVERSEAS - U.S. intelligence is scrutinizing arrests in England, Jordan and Italy of three groups for clues to possible al-Qa’ida plans to attack the United States this summer or fall, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge and senior U.S. intelligence officials said on 8 July, the Washington Post reported. ( www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A37621-2004Jul8.html )

    One of the rings was broken up in Britain in March, when eight men of Pakistani origin were arrested with more than 1,000 pounds of fertilizer stuffed into a self-storage container near London's Heathrow Airport. The material can be used as an explosive.

    In April, Jordanian officials said they foiled a terrorist plot involving 10 men, four of them killed in a shootout, to use trucks loaded with chemicals such as nerve gas and blistering agents to attack U.S. and Israeli sites there.

    Last month, authorities in Italy and Belgium arrested 17 Muslim radicals. Officials say one suspect is a former Egyptian army explosives expert who helped plan the 11 March train station bombings in Madrid. Officials said the ring was planning another terrorist strike.

    Ridge and senior intelligence officials from several U.S. agencies reiterated earlier warnings that they have persuasive intelligence that terrorists want to disrupt the U.S. electoral process. (DKR)

U.S. EMPLOYED ISRAELI INTERROGATORS – The British intelligence journal Janes reported on 7 July that U.S. forces employed Israeli interrogators to break Arabic-speaking prisoners.

    ( www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/fr/fr040707_1_n.shtml ) The Israelis came from the Shin Bet security service.

    The U.S. forces chose not to use interrogators from friendly Arab governments, such as Egypt or Jordan, because they systematically employ physical torture to break the prisoner’s will. For the past 20 years, Israel has banned Shin Bet from employing techniques that cause physical damage. The techniques developed by Shin Bet since the ban were more palatable to American sensibilities and brought faster and more convincing results, according to Janes.

    Shin Bet interrogation experts were sent to Iraq to help with the most difficult interrogations, such as the captured heads of the Iraqi intelligence - and perhaps with former president Saddam Husayn. U.S. sources told Janes that in spite of the incidences of abuse in Abu Ghraib prison, such events are not representative of the methods that Shin Bet used in Iraq. (DKR)

GRU UPSET BY QATAR’S IMPRISONMENT OF TWO OF ITS OFFICERS - Senior Russian MI officers are deeply upset over the handling of an incident involving two GRU officers who assassinated a Chechen separatist leader in Qatar and have been sent to prison there for 25 years, the Jamestown Foundation’s Chechnya Weekly reported on 7 July.

( www.jamestown.org/publications_details.php?volume_id=396&issue_id=3009&article_id=2368211 )

    The pro-Kremlin website Strana.ru published an interview on 1 July with an unnamed high-ranking general, close to Russian military intelligence, suggesting a profound degree of discontent and even rage within the security structures, the weekly said.

    The Qatar trial ended on 30 June with the two GRU officers sentenced to 25 years' imprisonment for the assassination. (See Qatar Court Sends Russian Assassins to Prison for 25 years, WIN #23-04 dtd 5 July 2004) The judge specifically emphasized that the Russian government had approved the killing.

    The general called the trial's outcome "a palpable slap in the face to the authority of our country." Even if the emir of Qatar should now yield to diplomatic entreaties and pardon the two Russian officers, he would still have "achieved his most important goal," the general said, which is "humiliating a great power, showing that ‘you are worthless and I am master in my own country, I will decide for myself how and with whom to cooperate, and if I pardon your people, it will be solely because of my own mercy toward those whom I have insulted and humiliated.'" (DKR)

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SECTION III -- CYBER INTELLIGENCE

DHS DEPLOYS NEW IT SYSTEMS - Homeland Security secretary Tom Ridge said on 8 July new IT systems have been deployed ahead of schedule to ensure that the government is capable of managing any security crisis that might arise during this summer's political conventions, computerworld.com reported.

( www.computerworld.com/securitytopics/security/story/0,10801,94443,00.html )

    The DHS now has full nationwide connectivity to a new Homeland Security Operations Center, which Ridge described as a nerve center for homeland security information and incident management. He also said homeland security directors in all 50 states have direct access to the DHS through a recently deployed Homeland Security Information Network, known as the Joint Regional Information Exchange System.

    JRIES currently operates at the sensitive but unclassified level. However, Ridge said that by the end of the year, the DHS would have the appropriate firewalls deployed that allow officials to share secret-level data on the network. (DKR)

5 BROTHERS CONVICTED OF SELLING COMPUTERS TO LIBYA, SYRIA - A federal court in Dallas convicted five Palestinian brothers of illegally selling computers to countries that supported terrorism -- Libya and Syria. One of the brothers, Bayan Elashi, owns Iraq's .iq domain.
( cbs11tv.com/localstories/local_story_189185736.html  )

    The brothers ran a successful computer company called InfoCom in Richardson, TX. They were tried on 23 counts including money laundering, conspiracy and making false statements on export shipping documents. Each count carries a maximum penalty of five or ten years in prison and fines as high as $500,000.

    The brothers are Palestinian immigrants. Bayan moved to the United States in 1977. Then 22 years old, he earned a master’s in computer science and set up an IT research company in California. He is credited with producing the world's first Arabic PC. In 1992 he created the InfoCom Corporation.

    All five brothers face another trial in September for allegedly dealing in the property of Mousa Abu Marzook, the former head of Hamas' political bureau and their cousin's husband. Marzook is a U.S. specially designated terrorist. Conviction in this case could mean an additional ten-year sentence.

( www.theregister.co.uk/2004/07/09/iraq_domain_owner_convicted ) (DKR)

VIETNAM CONVICTS CYBERDISSIDENT - Vietnam, in a crackdown on dissent, convicted a literature professor on 9 July for using the Internet to criticize government policies. But instead of executing a sentence of 19 months in prison, the court ordered the immediate release of Tran Khue because of time spent in jail since his arrest in December 2002.

( news.zdnet.co.uk/business/legal/0,39020651,39160088,00.htm ) (DKR)

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SECTION IV -- BOOKS, SOURCES, AND ISSUES

Books

    A BLEAK VIEW OF IRAQ -- Yossef Bodansky, The Secret History of the Iraq War (ReganBooks, 576 pp. $27.95)

Bodansky, ex-director of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare, says that Saddam Husayn was deeply involved with al-Qa'ida, and dispatched a 500-man terrorist battalion to North America in 2002; that Iraqi forces were armed with WMDs that have been hidden in Syria or buried in the Iraqi desert; and that Syria and Iran have been busy fomenting turmoil in Iraq. He fears that U.S. nation-building in Iraq is doomed and that an increasingly anti-American populace supports what is becoming an unstoppable jihad. (DKR)

    RAPID RESPONSE FORCE FOR DISEASE - Maryn McKenna, Beating Back the Devil: On the Front Lines with the Disease Detectives of the Epidemic Intelligence Service (Free Press, 336 pp. $26)

Founded in 1951 because of a mistaken concern that troops in Korea had been exposed to biological weapons, the Epidemic Intelligence Service, or EIS, is the rapid-response force of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Highly trained, and fiercely committed EIS health professionals, including doctors, dentists, nurses and veterinarians, respond rapidly and travel to any area of the world to examine possible threats to public health. After 9/11, EIS investigated the anthrax attacks that were spread through the mails. (DKR)

    WHAT IT WAS LIKE IN BAGHDAD - Jon Lee Anderson, The Fall of Baghdad, (Penguin Press, 352 pp. $24.95)

Anderson, who writes for the New Yorker writer, offers an eyewitness account of Baghdad during the war and after its fall. His account relates the views of Ba'ath Party officials and anti-Saddam folk, of war reporters and life in the hotels where they congregated. A fine record of the war, including its horrors. (DKR)

    GROWING UP IN AN FBI HOUSEHOLD - Maura Conlon-McIvor, FBI Girl: How I Learned to Crack My Father’s Code (Warner, 320 pp. $23)

Conlon-McIvor was the daughter of an FBI agent in the days of J. Edgar Hoover who grew up convinced that here taciturn father only spoke in code. She responded by creating a fantasy life in which was a Nancy Drew-like agent before finally having to overcome domestic tragedy and become her own person. She tells a well-delineated and funny tale of an Irish-American family living in Los Angeles in the 1960s. (DKR)

Issues

    CIA VET SAYS IC NEEDS A “JOINT” STRUCTURE - What is needed for the Intelligence Community, according to Flynt Leverett, a former CIA senior analyst, is to develop a model of "jointness" for it, analogous to what the Goldwater-Nichols Act did for the uniformed military 18 years ago.

    “That legislation made the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff the principal military adviser to the president,” Leverett wrote in the New York Times on 9 July. “It also mandated cross-service commands, defined regionally and functionally, as the operational chains of command for American military forces.”

( http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/09/opinion/09LEVE.html )

    “This model should be applied to American intelligence,” said Leverett who was senior director for Middle Eastern affairs at the National Security Council from 2002 to 2003 and is currently a visiting fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Politics at the Brookings Institution.

    “This means moving away from the current organizational structure, defined primarily along disciplinary and agency lines. (The CIA's directorate of intelligence, for example, is responsible for all-source analysis; the directorate of operations is responsible for human intelligence collection; the National Security Agency is responsible for communications intelligence. Turf is sacred.)”

    Instead, IC resources should be organized and deployed against high-priority targets, including terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, China and problem states in the Middle East. Each target-based centers would draw on people and resources from across the IC. The centers would report to a new national intelligence director, not to heads of individual agencies.

    “There are those who argue that intelligence reform should not be taken up during a political season. They are wrong,” he concludes. “This kind of reform can take place only in a political moment. We need a thorough discussion of the issue in the context of the current presidential campaign so that whoever is inaugurated in January has a mandate to break organizational pottery in order to save American lives.” (DKR)

    DIPLOMATS VS. GREEN BERETS - In the perennial war between the State Department and the military, U.S. diplomats are restricting the activities of special ops troops secretly assigned to embassies, the Washington Times reported 9 July, citing unspecified defense sources.

( www.washingtontimes.com/national/20040709-121015-8207r.htm )

    According to the Times, the Pentagon has been placing Green Berets and other special ops forces in embassies under diplomatic cover to improve locating al-Qa’ida cells and preparing to attack them. The undercover troops are referred to as operational command elements (OCE).

    The mission is generally called "operational preparation of the battle space" and consists of setting up a network of sources and identifying safe houses and landing zones. (DKR)


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SECTION V – NOTES, LETTERS, QUERIES AND COMING EVENTS

Notes

    DHS CALL FOR PROPOSALS ON BEHAVIORAL, SOCIAL ASPECTS OF TERRORISM - The Department of Homeland Security called on 6 July for proposals for a new university-based Center of Excellence in Behavioral and Social Aspects of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism. ( www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/display?content=3803 )

    The new center is to focus on both behavioral and social aspects of the terrorists themselves as well as the behavioral and social effects of terrorist threats and attacks on populations. DHS invited colleges and universities to submit letters of intent by 30 July 30 and full proposals by 30 September.

    The proposal submission is the first step in the review process for academic institutions wishing to be selected as a Homeland Security Center of Excellence. Homeland Security will convene a team of expert external evaluators who are to review submissions based on merit and make comments to a selection committee within the DHS. The Center of Excellence with its partners is to receive $12 million over three years. (DKR)

    MULLA OMAR HANGS UP ON AFGHAN INTEL - Afghan intelligence agents used a satellite phone taken from a captured aide to Mulla Omar to call the elusive Taliban leader, the Daily Telegraph (London) reported on 9 July.

    ( www.opinion.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2004/07/09/wafg09.xml&sSheet=/news/2004/07/09/ixnewstop.html )

    The brief conversation ended abruptly when Omar appeared to become suspicious and disconnected the call. He has ignored follow-up attempts to contact him. (DKR)

    DEATH OF WIFE OF FAMOUS CIA U-2 PILOT - Claudia E. [Sue] Powers - wife of U-2 Pilot Francis Gary Powers, died 17 June 2004 in Las Vegas, NV. AFIO extends condolences to Gary Powers of The Cold War Museum and his family, at the lost of his remaining parent, his mother Sue Powers. In lieu of flowers the family has requested donations be made in Sue's name to the Cold War Museum at coldwar.org. She will be buried at Arlington National Cemetery beside her beloved husband, Frank. Her late husband had been involved in a well-publicized spy swap with the Soviets in 1962. More on their lives can be found at:

http://www.reviewjournal.com/lvrj_home/2004/Jun-23-Wed-2004/news/24162628.html

Careers

[IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse these inquiries or offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information.]

Executive Opportunity with NGA
   
The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) has an opening for the Defense Intelligence Senior Executive Service (DISES) position of Director, Counterintelligence Office located in the Northern Virginia area. For more information please see the following website: http://goldweb.nga.mil/hrcfweb/emplopps/new_aons.cfm  or contact Chuck Burdette, NGA Executive Resources Office (HDE) or call 301-227-2877
 

Coming Events

Wednesday, July 21 - Washington, DC - OPEN HOUSE at the Institute of World Politics from 5:00 to 7:30 p.m. at the Institute's campus The Marlatt Mansion 1521 16th St. NW (Dupont Circle Metro). Hors d' oeuvres will be served and the $50 application fee is waived for those who attend. Stop by to visit with their faculty, tour their beautiful facilities and learn about their unique M.A. programs in Statecraft and World Politics and Statecraft and National Security Affairs. For full details: http://www.iwp.edu/events/eventID.21/event_detail.asp 

26 - 29 September 04 - Reno, NV - All bets are on you will not want to miss the joint meeting of the U.S. Marine Corps Tri-Association Intelligence Committee comprised of members of the Marine Corps Counterintelligence, the Marine Corps Intelligence and the Marine Corps Cryptologic Associations at Harrah’s Hotel and Casino in Reno, Nevada. The reunion will be held in conjunction with the Marine Intelligence Community’s fall conference which will involve active duty Marines attending from the “corners of the world,” current contingencies permitting. Friends of Marine Corps Intelligence are invited to attend. For additional details, contact Tom MacKinney (916) 983-6119 or at thosmack@comcast.net.

8 - 9 October 04 -- East Lyme, Ct -- The New England Chapter, Naval Cryptologic Veterans Association hosts a special reunion. For more information, contact: Phil Sirmons, 492 Boston Post Rd, East Lyme, CT 06333, 860-739-6006, asir@peoplepc.com, or visit their website at www.ncva-ne.org 

28 - 31 October 04 -- Linthicum, MD -- AFIO National holds Annual Symposium/Convention at the National Maritime Center and other secure locations. Some details on location and reservations appear at the top of this WIN. Please put these dates on your calendars and make your room & flight reservations NOW.

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