WIN #39-04 dtd 25 October 2004

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced by AFIO for non-profit educational uses by AFIO members and WIN subscribers.

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 Last Day to Register
AFIO’s Special Fall Symposium/Convention

Prices and Online Registration Form

Intelligence Community Restructuring

in the face of Multi-National Terrorism -

Rebuilding the House during a Storm

FINAL AGENDA

Convention/Symposium Co-Chairmen:

S. Eugene Poteat, AFIO President

E. Peter Earnest, AFIO Chairman

Locations: Conference center at the National Maritime Institute / http://www.ccmit.org

692 Maritime Blvd, Linthicum Heights, MD 21090   and at the NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY.

IMPORTANT SECURITY NOTES TO ATTENDEES

ˇ Sessions are unclassified, Background-Use-Only, Not-For-Attribution.

ˇ At the Maritime Institute sessions, do not use cell phones, tape recorders or other recording devices. Place cell phones or pagers on silent mode. You may otherwise be asked to leave. No electronic devices at NSA portion of event. Security personnel are on duty.

AFIO SYMPOSIUM and Convention

THURSDAY 28 OCTOBER

—DAY ONE—

(1) Registration from 1600 to 2000 hours

(2) Get acquainted with Maritime Center and its beautiful new campus

(3) Hospitality Suite - informal get-together in Main Building

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FRIDAY 29 OCTOBER

—DAY TWO—

at the National Security Agency

N.B. ALL Registrants MUST be at bus staging area in front of Conference Center by 0700 - Arrive with two photo IDs [license & passport] and AFIO Symposium badge [pick up AFIO badge when you arrive]. No private cars allowed at NSA. If you miss buses you will be unable to attend NSA portion of event. Park in Lot A or B. Buses run every 30 minutes with last one at 8 a.m. No refunds.

NOTE: Special security restrictions & screening apply. Their decision to us is final.

No cell phones, cameras or recording devices allowed at NSA.

Those attending must provide AFIO your SSN, Place and Date of Birth

(provide by phone, fax, mail if desired. We NEVER share this info & it is closely guarded).

If Naturalized, provide date and place and Naturalization number at the time of your registration.

Agenda subject to confirmation and amplification

NSA, Main Headquarters Auditorium

Friday, 29 October 2004

0715 - Buses depart Maritime Center

0815 - 0900 - NSA Security/Registration

0905 - 0915 - NSA Security Briefing

0915 - 0940 - Keynote Address - Lt. Gen. Michael V. Hayden, USAF - Director, NSA / CSS [confirmed] on NSA, Intelligence, Terrorism, and Coming Changes

0940-1005 - Introductions - former DIRNSA Lincoln D. Faurer, USAF[ret] and AFIO President Eugene Poteat, AFIO Chairman E. Peter Earnest, and AFIO Vice Chairman Lt. Gen. Edward Heinz, USAF(Ret)

1010-1055 - Joseph R. DeTrani, North Korea and China Expert, CIA [confirmed] 1100 -1150 - Charles Berlin, Associate NSA Director for Customer Relations - "International Terrorism and Human Intelligence" [confirmed]

Lunch Break

1330 -1415 - James Gosler, Information Assurance Expert, U.S. Govt. Consultant and Burton L. Gerber, former CIA case officer [confirmed]

1420 - 1510 - Maureen Baginski, Executive Asst Director for Intelligence, FBI - Counter-Terrorism, Intelligence, and the FBI [confirmed]

1515-1605 - Ken DeGraffenreid - Deputy National Counterintelligence Executive [confirmed]

1610 -1700 - Valerie J. McNevin, Senior Financial sector specialist, World Bank - Cyber$pace and $pyware: Harvesting $hadow Intelligence [confirmed]

Departure for Museum

1730 - 1930 - Chairman’s Reception at National Cryptologic Museum. Chairman Peter Earnest co-hosts with Jack E. Ingram, Museum Director, and staff

National Cryptologic Museum Reception includes hors d’oeuvres, drinks, and private tour of Museum. Museum shop will be well-stocked and will remain open throughout event.

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SATURDAY 30 OCTOBER

—DAY THREE—

– SATURDAY MORNING –

AT MARITIME CENTER

0845-0930 - Registration at CCMIT

0930-1015 - "Finishing Business - Ten Steps to Defeat Global Terror" - Harlan K. Ullman, senior fellow Center for Naval Analyses, Advisor, CSIS, Washington Times columnist [confirmed]

1015-1130 - How Terror Groups End - Christopher C. Harmon, Ph.D., terrorism author, Professor of International Relations, Command and Staff College, Marine Corps University [confirmed]

Lunch Break

1145-1300 - Luncheon with speaker Lt Col Stephen P. Lambert, USAF on "Y - Sources of Islamic Revolutionary Conduct" [confirmed]

– SATURDAY AFTERNOON –

AT MARITIME CENTER

1300 -1450 - Book Exposition & Panels Intelligence Book Review panel, Ward Warren et al., – Review of current and forthcoming Intelligence Literature with authors - Gayle Lynds, Winslow T. Wheeler, and Amb. Joe Wilson [all confirmed].

1510 - 1700 - Teaching Intelligence Panel - Outstanding programs and courses. College: Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC and Joint Military Intelligence College, with Professor John Lenczowski [IWP], Mr. Jan Goldman [JMIC] and Professor Daniel J. Benny, [Central Pennsylvania College] and others. [all confirmed]

– SATURDAY EVENING –

BANQUET AND AWARDS

Spies in Black Ties™– AFIO Annual Awards Banquet, Saturday Evening Reception at 7 p.m.; Dinner 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. Formal attire recommended but not mandatory. Includes Reception & Banquet with distinguished Keynote speaker, Frank J. Gaffney, Jr. music, entertainment, awards.

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SUNDAY 31 OCTOBER

—DAY FOUR—

The National Maritime Center

Linthicum Heights, MD

0830 - 0930 General Membership Meeting - President, Sr. VP & Executive Director 0930 - 1100 - Chapter Workshop – restricted to current and prospective Chapter representatives, conducted by AFIO VP for Chapters Emerson Cooper. [confirmed] No cost, but must register. Limited attendance.

SYMPOSIUM & CONVENTION ENDS

Prices and Online Registration Form

SATURDAY TOUR OPTIONS

[Because of time constraints, these optional tours run concurrent with Saturday Symposium Sessions and often appeal to spouses, members, and/or other guests] 

All Tours are subject to adequate number of registrants

Bus Tour to National Electronics Museum & National Vigilance Park

Includes in-route briefings on early overhead reconnaissance, the U-2 Incident and Cold War Museum - 3 Hours (Guides: Francis Gary Powers, Jr. and John Bessette)

Morning or Afternoon [based on survey of those who sign up] Includes beverages and snacks with bus [from/to CCMIT]

CONTENTS of this WIN [HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents] [This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition recipients. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. However, due to recent changes in AOL's security standards, members using AOL will not be able to receive HTML formatted WINs from AFIO and will thus be receiving our Plaintext Edition. The HTML feature also does not work for those who access their e-mail using web mail. NON-HTML recipients may view HTML edition at this link: https://www.afio.com/currentwin.htm

SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

   Goss Says He Will Build Up Clandestine Service

   Iraqi Intel Boss Accuses Iran of Assassinations

   Sen. Levin Accuse Undersecretary Feith of Distorting Intel  

SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

   CIA Said To Violate Geneva Conventions

   No Direct Evidence Found of Pre-Election Plot

SECTION III -- CYBER INTELLIGENCE

   China Said To Lead, U.S. To Follow, In Smuggled Korean IT

   Muslims Hacking Western Corporations

   CIA Funded Group in Deal with Paratek

SECTION IV -- BOOKS, SOURCES, AND ISSUES

   Books

      AFIO Author Sees Strategic and Intelligence Problems In War  - Richard Cutler

   Issues

      Zarqawi Building Up Standing As Jihad Leader Beyond Iraq    

SECTION V -- CAREERS, NOTES, LETTERS/QUERIES, CORRECTIONS, COMING EVENTS

   Careers

      Senior Homeland Security Position Open

   Notes    

      CIA IG Report to be Released Only After Election

      Intel Reform Bill unlikely Before Elections

      Tenet to Teach Diplomacy at Georgetown U.

   Coming Events

      28 - 31 Oct - Linthicum, MD -- AFIO Annual Symposium

      19 November - Arlington - OSIS Veterans Meet  

     New Intel Conference Debuts Next February

   Obituary

      Robert Dreher

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SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

GOSS SAYS HE WILL BUILD UP CLANDESTINE SERVICE - Porter Goss, in a private address to CIA staff the day he took over as DCI, pledged to overhaul and enlarge the DO, the Washington Post reported on 22 October.

   (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52675-2004Oct21.html)

   According to a transcript of the speech delivered on 24 September, Goss told the agency's personnel, "I think we need to rebuild a true global capability," with "more eyes and ears everywhere."  The clandestine service, he said, "should take more risks, leave people in positions around the world longer, improve its language capabilities and "have the ability to understand what is actually going on."

   Former and current agency staff have told the Post that Goss often sits quietly at staff meetings, then conducts business with a second group of managers made up of longtime aides he has brought with him to Langley and many of whom are perceived by CIA staff as partisan Republicans. Suspicions that Goss plans to carry out a wholesale purge of top agency executives after the elections is creating angst at a time of intensive counterterrorism operations, according to the Post.

   In his remarks, Goss promised to allow officers to work longer on one target and would stop shuffling people around on an artificial schedule, a reference to the six-month rotation of hundreds of staff into and out of Iraq and onto counterterrorism operations and analysis.

   Goss said he would give operatives and analysts more autonomy and encourage them to take risks. When it goes wrong, he said he would offer his full support for their efforts. "I believe this very wholeheartedly," he said. "We need to take risks." (DKR)

IRAQI INTEL BOSS ACCUSES IRAN OF ASSASSINATIONS - Iraq's national intelligence chief Mohammed al-Shahwani has accused Iran's Baghdad embassy of masterminding an assassination campaign that has seen 18 intelligence agents killed since mid-September, Agence France-Presse reported on 14 October.

   Shahwani told AFP raids on Iranian safe houses in Baghdad in September uncovered a cache of documents that linked Iran to plots to kill members of the Iraqi intelligence service and for this purpose utilize elements in the Badr Corps of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution. SCIRI, made up of Iraqi Shi'i muslims, has been supported by the Islamic Republic of Iraq since its creation in the 1980s as a body actively resisting Saddam Husayn.

   SCIRI denies Shahwani's charges and alleges his service is full of veterans of Saddam's military conducting a vendetta against SCIRI militants who mounted operations in Iraq from bases in Iran. The Badr Corps formally renounced violence in the spring of 2003.

   On orders from Iran, Shahwani said, elements of the Badr Corps carried out ten assassinations of intelligence officers since mid-September. Another eight were slain by Tawhid wa'l Jihad, the Islamist terrorist-guerrilla body led by the Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Two of the Iraqis were beheaded. Shahwani said he suspected Tehran was funding Zarqawi, but lacked conclusive proof.

   According to Shahwani, the seized documents showed Iran had a $45 million budget for sowing chaos in Iraq.

   Shahwani says that four Iraqis arrested following a botched assassination attempt in September, belonged to Iraqi Hizballah, another Shi'i militant organization affiliated with SCIRI. They confessed to being on the payroll of Iran's intelligence service. (DKR)

SEN. LEVIN ACCUSES UNDERSECRETARY FEITH OF DISTORTING INTEL - In a report issued on 21 October, Sen. Carl Levin, ranking Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, accused DoD Undersecretary for Defense Policy Douglas Feith of distorting intelligence in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq to back up claims that there were links between Baghdad and al-Qa’ida, Reuters reported.

   The 46-page report asserted that claims by the Pentagon's civilian leadership, asserting there was a link between al-Qa'ida and Saddam, were not supported by intelligence on which they were said to be based.

   Levin also questioned assertions that there were pre-war links between Saddam Husayn's regime and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a Jordanian now wanted by the United States as the most dangerous leader of Sunni assaults on U.S. and Iraqi targets.

   The report, released 12 days before the 2 November elections, was compiled by the committee's Democratic staff. It charged that Feith's Office of Special Plans looked through a lens "that was predisposed to finding a significant relationship between Iraq and al-Qa'ida."

   Feith, in a letter sent to Levin the day before the report was released, said the dispute was based on a misunderstanding that could have been avoided if Levin had asked him to explain. Feith also denied that he ignored corrections requested by the CIA when he gave a summary of reports to Congress in January 2004, AP reported.

   (http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-4571552,00.html)

   The Armed Services Committee Chairman, John Warner, said the Senate Intelligence Committee was looking into these issues, that its work was not complete and so it was too early to draw conclusions. (DKR)

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SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

CIA SAID TO VIOLATE GENEVA CONVENTIONS - At the request of the CIA, DoJ drafted a confidential memo authorizing the agency to transfer detainees out of Iraq for interrogation, a practice international legal specialists say contravenes the Geneva Conventions, the Washington Post reported on 24 October.

   (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57363-2004Oct23.html)

   An intel official told the Post the CIA used the memo to support secretly taking as many as a dozen detainees out of Iraq in the last six months. The agency concealed the detainees from the International Committee of the Red Cross and other authorities, the official said.

   The draft opinion, written by DoJ's Office of Legal Counsel and dated 19 March, refers to both Iraqi citizens and foreigners in Iraq, who the memo says are protected by the Geneva Conventions. The draft permits the CIA to take Iraqis out of the country for a brief but not indefinite period. But the CIA can permanently remove persons deemed to be illegal aliens under local immigration law.

   Some international law specialist said the DoJ view amounted to a reinterpretation of Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention, which protects civilians during wartime and occupation, including insurgents who were not part of Iraq's military. Article 49 forbids individual or mass forcible transfers, as well as deportations of protected persons from occupied territory, regardless of their motive.

   The 1949 treaty notes that a violation of this provision constitutes a grave violation of the treaty and so under U.S. law is a war crime, according to a footnote in the draft memo.

   The Office of Legal Counsel writes legal opinions considered binding on federal agencies and departments. The memo was stamped "draft" and was not finalized, an official involved in the legal deliberations said. It was sent to the general counsels at the agency, NSC, State, and DoD. (DKR)

NO DIRECT EVIDENCE FOUND OF PRE-ELECTION TERRORIST PLOT - U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials say they have found no direct evidence of a terrorist plot to strike in the United States before Election Day. FBI Director Mueller and then acting DCI McLaughlin foresaw such an attack in the daily briefing they gave the President on 15 September, the Washington Post reported on 23 October.

   (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55597-2004Oct22.html)

   Authorities also told the Post that a key CIA source who claimed knowledge of such plans was now discredited, putting into question evidence indicating a possible attack. The source was found to have fabricated his story, according to several counterterrorism officials.

   Information received by the FBI and other agencies prompted a campaign to check possible plots before the elections and that involved hundreds of interviews in immigrant neighborhoods and aggressive surveillance of suspected terrorist sympathizers, the paper said.

   Intelligence officials stressed that they continue to receive reports indicating that al-Qa'ida and its affiliates would like to mount attacks in the United States close to 2 November. Such reports have been streaming in since terrorists blew up trains in Madrid days on the eve of Spanish elections in March. These bombings resulted in the pro-American government being voted out of office and the new Socialist government withdrawing Spanish forces from Iraq.

   Some 2,000 FBI counterterrorism agents are conducting interviews and following up leads, with instructions to report to 24-hour call centers in each field office. In charge of the campaign is Patrick Cook, appointed to it the day after Bush was briefed, officials said. Cook moved from being a senior official in the Washington field office to the bureau's Strategic Information Operations Center with instructions to run a national plan to disrupt plots. "They told him his whole job is to prevent an attack before the inauguration," said a colleague who works elsewhere told the Post. "Which is like being told, 'Make the sky turn purple.' "

   "People are so terrified because they can't see clearly anymore," a counterterrorism analyst said. Since ending al-Qa'ida's sanctuary in Afghanistan, the analyst said, "we can't see the training camps, we've driven their communications further underground, and the operators have effectively disappeared."

   FBI and DoJ officials said they are still worried about the whereabouts and activities of seven fugitives who were named in May as possible suspects in the planning of a Qa’ida attack. One of particular concern to the FBI is Adnan al-Shukrijumah, a Saudi-born radical raised in Guyana and the United States. A trained pilot, he lived in Florida until fleeing after 9/11. There is a $5 million bounty on his head. "He's a real threat," said one official. "He speaks Spanish, English and Arabic; he's totally bought into the plan, and nobody -- but nobody -- knows where he is.” (DKR)

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SECTION III -- CYBER INTELLIGENCE

CHINA SAID TO LEAD, U.S. TO FOLLOW, IN SMUGGLED KOREAN IT - The No. 1 destination for smuggled Korean IT was China, followed by the United States, the South Korean newspaper Joong Ang Daily reported on 23 October.

   (http://joongangdaily.joins.com/200410/22/200410222208448739900090509051.html)

   The paper cited a report by the Samsung Economic Research Institute that said the majority of attempted technology thefts were in IT areas such as thin film transistor liquid crystal displays, plasma display panels, digital televisions and cell phones.

   In additions to industrial espionage, smuggling was carried out by employees who move to rival companies; in the export of parts and equipment of high-tech products; in technology trading with overseas companies; and in mergers and acquisitions. Samsung noted that due to corporate restructuring and early retirement, employees' loyalty to companies has weakened and scouting has become more common in recent years.

   "Companies need to strengthen security on vital technologies and government-level legal protection is needed," said Park Sung-bae, a researcher at the economic institute.

   According to the report, from 1998 through August 2004, there were 51 attempts to smuggle vital technology information out of South Korea. The estimated damage totaled the equivalent of $39 billion. (PJK, DKR)

MUSLIMS HACKING WESTERN CORPORATIONS - Hackers from Muslim countries are increasingly targeting Western corporations as politically inspired cyber attacks spread around the globe, an Internet security company, mi2g, claimed on 20 October, The Guardian (London) reported.

   (http://www.guardian.co.uk/online/news/0,12597,1331998,00.html)

   Islamic hacking, as mi2g calls it, is allegedly causing more damage as groups coordinate attempts to paralyze websites and disrupt businesses. But some industry insiders dismissed the claim as alarmist.

   Executive Chairman D.K. Matai said mig2 had noticed increased cooperation between hacking groups in Morocco, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. "They call for American troops to get out of Iraq, Israelis out of Palestine and Russians out of Chechnya," he said. "We have seen a lot of attacks on multinational corporations in the G-7 countries."

   For their part, Muslim groups in Britain complain that their organizations' computer systems have been targeted by rightwing opponents. Political hacking among Internet groups is common, especially over issues such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the rivalry between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. (DKR)

CIA FUNDED GROUP IN DEAL WITH PARATEK - Paratek Microwave, a provider of smart scanning antennas and miniaturized tunable Radio Frequency Front Ends, has announced signing a strategic investment and development agreement with In-Q-Tel, the CIA funded private venture investment group, the Financial Times reported on 21 October.

   In-Q-Tel was launched in 1999 to identify and invest in companies developing cutting-edge IT that serves U.S. national security interests.

   Paratek's products are distinguished by their ability to electronically tune over a range of frequencies and to electronically scan antenna beams.

   According to Robert Metcalfe, chairman of Paratek's board, "In-Q-Tel's investment in Paratek's advanced development confirms the significant benefits of Paratek's technology to the critical communications needs of the government, whose requirements exceeds that of the commercial markets. At the same time, Paratek's commercial products are now finding applications in wireless LANs and will soon be sampled to the mobile phone and RFID markets."

   Other investors include Polaris Venture Partners, Novak Biddle Venture Partners, Morgenthaler, Investor AB and ABS Ventures. (DKR)

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SECTION IV -- BOOKS, SOURCES, AND ISSUES

Books

   AFIO Author Sees Strategic And Intelligence Problems In War - AFIO member Richard Cutler is a veteran of the OSS and CIA and a now retired lawyer. His book, Counterspy: Memoirs of a Counterintelligence Officer in World War II and the Cold War, was published by Brassey this month. Exceptionally, WIN is publishing the following edited and abridged version of his article, “War has both strategic and intelligence problems” because of its timeliness. The full article appeared in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on 9 October.

    Events demonstrate that the war against terror — a misleadingly simplified name for a war against Islamic extremists or jihadists — is not going well.

• The Department of Homeland Security has warned that al-Qa’ida had painstakingly reconnoitered financial centers in New York City and Washington for possible terrorist attacks.

• The bipartisan Sept. 11 Commission has illuminated intelligence failures before 9/11 and recommended radical structural reforms that are now being acted upon in both houses of Congress.

• Violence against the interim Iraqi government and coalition soldiers has escalated, augmented by kidnappings and grisly executions of hostages.

• Iraqi insurgents control many cities and may forestall or corrupt the promised election

• The American-backed government of Afghan’s President Hamid Karzai is more and more challenged by armed regional warlords and insurgent Taliban and Qa’ida forces.

    In August, an anonymous still-active counterintelligence official who formerly headed the CIA’s Usama bin Ladin task force published “Imperial Hubris: Why the West is Losing the War Against Terror,” an overnight bestseller.

    “Anonymous” argues that the United States grossly underestimated bin Ladin’s appeal to Muslims, predicting that the West’s efforts in both Afghanistan and Iraq will fail unless the United States increases its military effort, which is unlikely, and radically modifies policies that taunt and humiliate Muslims.

   These include the occupation of Iraq itself, American backing for Ariel Sharon’s Israel in whatever it chooses and support of repressive Muslim regimes such as Saudi Arabia’s.

   As a geopolitical junkie since serving as an Office of Strategic Services counterintelligence officer in World War II and the Cold War, I agree that our nation’s predicament stems from both strategic and intelligence mistakes.

    Brent Scowcroft, national security adviser to former President George H. W. Bush, warned in August 2002 that invading Iraq would seriously distract from our efforts against the more serious threat of al-Qaida.

   That has happened. Our military forces now are stretched too thin for the objectives assigned to them. Moreover, our occupation of Iraq greatly increased recruits for al-Qa’ida and jihadist attacks against American soldiers and cooperating Iraqis.

   Clearly, the underlying but not originally disclosed neo-conservatives’ primary objective of establishing a stable, pluralistic, progressive democracy in the Middle East has become a pipe dream.

   The world will be lucky if Iraq avoids a protracted civil war on its way to partition into Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish states, or, at best, a stable Shiite or even Sunni autocracy such as that which has ruled Iraq by force.

   As to intelligence reform, there seem to be two trains passing in the dark. Intellectuals and experienced intelligence officers fear that radical structural reform can set back intelligence and may not be needed. Politicians want something done hastily so they can be seen as doing something. I believe the greater problem is lack of good analysis and judgment in the intelligence community and, even more, in the administration’s messianic geopolitics.

   I wish the 9/11 commission and congressional leaders could have heard from an unbiased successful intelligence leader. For example, Efraim Halevy, who recently led Israel’s Mossad, has warned that creating a czar would do more harm than good. He noted that after Israeli intelligence shockingly failed to predict the 1973 Arab attack on Israel, an Israeli commission recommended creation of a “special adviser on intelligence,” which quickly failed in practice.

   Halevy cautioned that installing a czar “does not answer the most challenging questions: how to collect information in countries like Iraq and targets like al-Qa’ida.”

   In my judgment, the fundamental cause of the CIA’s failure before the 9/11 attacks and in Iraq 30 months later was not structural. It was a lack of sufficient imaginative and daring case officers who speak Arabic and other Middle Eastern languages; an adequate pay scale for upper grades; and a management willing to take risks, unimpeded by restrictions against using “bad guys,” such as criminals, civil rights violators or agents recruited from the other side. In 2003, the CIA had no agents inside Iraq; the British intelligence organization, MI-6, had five.

   In weighing reform alternatives, it’s also helpful to note how great our intelligence once was and why it has declined. In my day, the OSS, and later the CIA, obtained crucial human intelligence from the supreme source: knowledgeable volunteers inside Hitler’s government or the Soviet Union’s — in other words, penetration agents or moles.

   The CIA’s long structural decline began with virulent attacks by vengeful congressional committees in the 1970s that wanted to cripple the agency, and by savage or naive actions by at least two presidents.

   Both President Nixon and President Carter abruptly purged the agency of more than 1,000 persons, one-third of them experienced case officers. (Some of them necessarily were hired back later.) That purge destroyed morale and discouraged the recruitment of new talent. Badly bruised, the CIA gradually morphed into a bureaucracy that was averse to risk.

   After 9/11, according to top officers and some knowledgeable observers, the CIA, under director George Tenet, improved its operations and recruited many new language specialists. CIA special operatives performed brilliantly in Afghanistan, guiding the Air Force to targets from positions on the ground.

   Surely, the CIA needs to be reinvigorated by resourceful new leadership and strong support from the presidency, Congress and the public. It is possible that the creation of a new intelligence czar over the CIA, and control of its budget and that of other intelligence agencies, will help.

   But it is more likely to demoralize the CIA. (DKR)

Issues

   Zarqawi Building Up Standing As Jihad Leader Beyond Iraq - According to senior counterterrorism and intelligence experts, both inside and outside USG, the Jordanian Islamist Abu Musab Zarqawi is using his role as a leader of Iraqi resistance to the U.S. occupation to become a major figure in the broader Islamic jihadi movement, the Washington Post reported on 21 October.

   (http://www.washingtonpostcom/wp-dyn/articles/A49742-2004Oct20.html)

   Last week, Zarqawi pledged his loyalty and that of his organization, Tawhid wa'l Jihad (Unity (0f God) and Holy Struggle), to Usama bin Ladin and al-Qa'ida, but, a counterterrorism expert said, Zarqawi does not see himself in a subordinate role. "He is using Iraq as a springboard," the expert said, "and he now wants to look beyond Iraq and the region."

   Zarqawi, with some of his followers, traveled in and out of Iraq, starting in Iraqi Kurdistan in 2001, after leaving Afghanistan and transiting Iran, the present writer has reported. After the U.S. invasion of Iraq, Zarqawi saw an opportunity for his small Islamist network to play a wider role in the resistance and subsequently showed he was a very able organizer and tactician.

   Despite the capture or killing of dozens of his aides, the U.S. expert said, Zarqawi has an apparatus that goes beyond TwJ cells in Fallujah and is trying to build an infrastructure countrywide in Iraq.

   The series of beheadings for which he is responsible have only increased his standing among a great part of the Iraqi Arab world.  As Anthony H. Cordesman, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has said, "Beheadings look horrifying to us, but from the viewpoint of religious absolutists [in the Middle East], they don't horrify them, they are victories." As a result, Cordesman said, for many in the region Zarqawi has become a hero. “He is a successful warrior who has attacked the U.S. and been victorious."

   Whatever happens between U.S. troops and the insurgents in Fallujah, Cordesman said, will not matter to Zarqawi's standing. "Zarqawi has shown he was like Usama bin Ladin and could achieve victories," he said.

   In 2002, the Bush administration said Zarqawi had been received in Saddam Husayn's Baghdad for medical treatment that included having a leg amputated as a result of wounds from a U.S. bombing attack in Afghanistan. That account has turned out to be wrong, according to U.S. intelligence officials who have interrogated Zarqawi associates. "It was for another ailment, but not his leg," one intelligence official told the Post. "We are still learning about him," this official added.

   "Jihad has become central in Iraq," the counterterrorism official said, "and Zarqawi is now central to that." (DKR)

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SECTION V -- CAREERS, NOTES, LETTERS/QUERIES, CORRECTIONS, COMING EVENTS

   [IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse these inquiries or offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any personal information.]

Careers

   Senior Homeland Security Position Open - The Police Executive Research Forum, a national membership/research organization dedicated to improving policing, seeks a senior-level person to develop and implement projects related to the law enforcement role in homeland security and counter-terrorism. Knowledge of homeland security issues and agencies is essential. Experience working with police agencies, managing state and federal grants, leading staff, and developing funded proposals is required. Excellent written/oral communications skills are required; an advanced degree is preferred.  Send resume and cover letter to: PERF, Attn: Job Postings, 1120 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 930, Washington, DC 20036. PERF is an equal opportunity employer; minorities are encouraged to apply.

Notes

   CIA IG Report To Be Released Only After Election - The CIA is keeping the lid on a hard-hitting report by its IG about agency officials who might be held accountable for 9/11 intel failures, MSNBC online reported, citing Newsweek dated 1 November.

   (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6314736/site/newsweek)

   Current and former officials, identified in the report, could be candidates for possible disciplinary procedures imposed by a special CIA Accountability Board, sources told Newsweek.

   The report, completed last June, has not been made public or sent to the two congressional oversight committees that asked for the review more than two years ago. The 9/11 Commission was refused access to the report, Philip Zelikow, the commission's executive director, told Newsweek.

   The CIA's position is that more work needs to be done.

   In a letter to DCI Goss, House intel committee chairman Peter Hoekstra and ranking Democrat Jane Harman contrasted the agency's failure to turn over the report with the Pentagon's ability to provide an exhaustive investigative report on the far more recent Abu Ghraib scandal. Goss shows no inclination to release the document any time soon, according to Newsweek.

   When the Los Angeles Times ran an account of the report, Goss's top aide ordered the agency's Office of Security to investigate the leak. "Everybody feels it will be better off if this hits the fan after the election," said one agency official. The IG’s report is said to be more pointed than the 9/11 Commission report.

   There are two other reports critical of intel work that will not be released until after Election Day. Both are based on Senate intelligence committee investigations. One concerns whether the White House misused prewar intel about Iraq. The other deals with whether the Pentagon manipulated intel about links between Iraq and al-Qa'ida. Neither report will be finished until the end of the year at the earliest, committee sources said. (DKR)

   Intel Reform Bill unlikely Before Elections - House-Senate negotiators, trying to resolve differences in bills to restructure the IC, announced minimal progress on 22 October and conceded it will be difficult to complete the task before the 2 November elections, the Washington Post reported. (Cameron L.C., DKR)

   Tenet To Teach Diplomacy At Georgetown U. - Former DCI George Tenet is taking up a three-year appointment as a professor of diplomacy at Georgetown's School of Foreign Service, the Washington Post reported on 19 October.

   (http://www.washingtonpostcom/wp-dyn/articles/A46237-2004Oct19.html)

   The Post reported at the same time that agency spokesman Mark Mansfield is on extended leave for health reasons and will be replaced by his deputy, Paul Gimigliano, who will serve as acting director of public affairs. (DKR)

Coming Events

   19 November - Arlington - OSIS Veterans Meet  - Veterans of the former Navy Ocean Surveillance Information System (OSIS) will meet informally at the Army-Navy Country Club, Arlington, VA, on 19 November, from 6:00 PM. Open bar and heavy hors d'oeuvres. POC: J.R. Reddig, email: JayAre303@aol.com

   New Intel Conference Debuts Next February - Featuring well over 50 seminars, sessions and special events, the National Intelligence Conference and Exposition (INTELCON) will debut next February 8-10 at the Hyatt Regency Crystal City, just outside of Washington in Arlington, Virginia.

   INTELCON'S s goal is to bring together annually intel professionals and members of Congress in an informal setting on neutral ground to provide educational enhancement and discuss common issues.

   Veteran intelligence specialist John Loftus is directing the INTELCON Program, supported by an advisory group of figures within the Intelligence Community and a liaison committee whose members reach out to intelligence and intel-related professionals in both the public and private sectors. Conference Chairman is Dr. William Saxton, founder of the very first computer/IT conference for the Federal government.

   Based upon the theme of “Widening the Intelligence Community,” the Conference offers five two-day Program Tracks – Federal Civilian, DOD/Military, State and Local Law Enforcement, Business, and Private Sector. In addition, there will be eight, full-day Professional Enhancement Seminars on Trends in Intelligence Technology, Role of Congress in Intelligence Oversight, Finding and Keeping Intelligence Specialists, Reforming the Intelligence Community, View from Abroad, Sharing Intelligence, Getting the Public Involved, and Political, Policy and Legal Issues. Also planned are two plenary sessions – Counterintelligence Methods and Applications; and, How to Find and Leverage Open Source Intelligence.

   Luncheon and keynote addresses by prominent speakers, and special briefings for Congress, will round out the program. There will also be a full-scale vendor exposition with a wide spectrum of companies and products relevant to intelligence interests. Its organizer is Federal Business Council of Annapolis Junction, Maryland that is also handling INTELCON’s overall production.

   For more information, please go to the event’s Web site, www.intelcon.us or contact: David Powell, Federal Business Council, 10810 Guilford Road, P.O. Box 685, Annapolis Junction, Maryland 20710 Tel. 301-206-2940, Fax: 301-206-2950, david@fbcdb.com

Obituary

   Robert Dreher -- A CIA veteran and a founder of Radio Liberty, Robert Dreher has died at the age of 88, the Washington Post reported.

   (http://www.washingtonpostcom/wp-dyn/articles/A57641-2004Oct23.html)

   In 1948, Dreher, a Navy lieutenant serving in Moscow and Odessa, was charged with espionage by the Soviet authorities and expelled. The State Department said he had been framed and Dreher did not join the CIA until 1951. He then carried out intel and liaison duties in Washington and overseas. From 1953 to 1961, working in New York and Munich, he was one of the those who planned Radio Liberty which was staffed by émigrés from the Soviet bloc to broadcast news to behind the Iron Curtain. He returned to the agency in 1961, working in Washington and abroad as an analyst. He retired in 1972.

   Born in Oil City, Pa., Dreher obtained a bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from Lafayette College in Pennsylvania, then did graduate work in political science and international affairs at Georgetown University from 1950 to 1952.

   After retiring, he became active in community affairs and contributed financially to the National Cathedral in Washington, the Arlington Community Foundation and the Nature Conservancy.

   Because of declining health, he gave up living in Arlington in 2002 and moved to Foulkeways in Gwynedd, Pa., where he died on 24 September. Survivors include a sister. (DKR)

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