WEEKLY INTELLIGENCE NOTES (WIN) 
03-01 dtd 22 January 2001

WINs contain intelligence notes and commentaries selected, edited and produced by Roy Jonkers, with contributions by associate editors John Macartney and Don Harvey.

Warning Notice: Perishability of Links:  WINs, sent weekly to members, often contain numerous webpage links to fast-breaking news, documents or other items of interest; unfortunately, after four weeks many of these websites [especially newspaper and other media sites] remove items or shift them into fee-only archives.  This underscores the benefit of receiving the WINs as they are released.

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SECTION I -- CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

CONTINUITY AND CHANGE IN THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY -- (1) DCI George Tenet: President George W. Bush has extended George Tenet's tenure. Rapid turnover in this key position can be damaging. Mr. Tenet, who became DCI in 1997, is the fifth director since 1991. That was the period of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the unfolding of a new era in international affairs presenting the intelligence services with a multitude of new threats. Presidents are best served when they get unvarnished assessments about foreign threats. Mr. Tenet is not known for bending intelligence reports to support administration policies. The intelligence community will benefit from an extended period of stable -- and able -- leadership.( NYTimes 19Jan2001)
(2) Keith Hall, the Director of the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) and Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Space, has agreed to stay on indefinitely, according to NRO spokesman Art Haubold. Hall, who has led NRO since 1997, has pushed the streamlining and modernizing of its acquisition processes. He also co-chaired a task force that led to the creation of the National Imagery and Mapping Agency (NIMA). Another excellent continuity of leadership. (Inside the AF, 19 Jan 2001, p. 19)
(3) Senator Fred Thompson is joining the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in the new 107th Congress. Thompson said he plans to focus on such issues as improving intelligence collection and analysis, ensuring the intelligence community has adequate resources, and countering terrorism, growing missile threats and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). At least one and possibly two Republicans are leaving the Intelligence committee. Sen. Connie Mack (R-Fla.) retired from Congress, and Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) will leave the panel unless he gets a term-limit waiver. Democrats announced their membership changes for the Intelligence committee last week, including the elevation of Sen. Bob Graham (D-Fla.) to the post of ranking Democrat (DAILY, Jan. 16). (Jonkers)

RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE SERVICES -- Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty cites Russian newspaper leaks and revelations to the effect that a new mega-intelligence service may be in the works. Writing in "Versiya," no. 1, Yuri Nersesov said that a draft document calling for the merger of the Foreign Intelligence Service, the Federal Security Service, the Federal Protection Service, the Federal Agency for Governmental Communications and Information, and the Interior Ministry's Directorate for Combatting Organized Crime into a single Federal Security Department has been circulated to presidential envoys in the federal districts. Nersesov said that if this plan goes through, the new agency's capacities "will be even greater than those of the former KGB, and its director will become the second most influential person in Russia." The interior and emergency ministries will lose their forces, and the regional leaders will have no say in its operation. Nersesov said that he believes the likely head of this new department will be Sergei Ivanov, the current secretary of the Russian Security Council.
Meanwhile, "Tribuna" reported on 16 January that President Putin and his aides, plagued by the same problems that beset US Administrations, have launched a new program to prevent government secrets from leaking out. (RFE/RL 17Jan2001// Zgram 18 Jan 2001 -- http://www.rferl.org/newsline/search  (Jonkers)

DEFENSE DEPARTMENT ASSESSMENTS OF RUSSIA'S NUCLEAR THREAT --
A 187-page report by the Defense Department released to the public recently titled "Proliferation Threat and Response" provided some detail on the Russian nuclear situation. Specific items mentioned are:
** "Russia has thousands of tactical nuclear warheads that it is unlikely to dismantle soon and that are not subject to current arms control agreements."
** "Recent Russian public statements about their willingness to use nuclear weapons indicate that Russia's threshold for the use of these weapons is lower, due to the decline of...its conventional forces."
** "Tactical nuclear weapons will remain a viable component of its general purpose forces for at least the next decade." Tactical nuclear forces include short-range missiles, artillery, air-delivered bombs, torpedoes and anti-ship missiles in the Defense definition.
** Russia is continuing to modernize its nuclear weapons force with the deployment of new road-mobile SS-27 intercontinental ballistic missiles and a new generation of submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
** There are "serious questions" about whether Russia secretly retained offensive biological and chemical weapons in violation of arms treaties. ( Washington Times 11 Jan '01 // Bill Gertz) (Harvey)

SECTION II -- CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

COMMENTARY ON COUNTERINTELLIGENCE - CI-21 -- Early this month President Clinton issued an order intended to reorganize American counterintelligence. Mr. Clinton's order, CI-21, supported by the FBI and CIA, may be as important as if he had signed one for a missile defense system. Just what is counterintelligence (CI)? Its tasks are fourfold: (1) To protect U.S. intelligence operations.
(2) To uncover deception and disinformation.
(3) To detect secret political operations directed against the U.S.
(4) To prevent spies and terrorists from being successful.
As Richard Helms, CIA director from 1966 to 1972, put it: "Counterintelligence is terribly important, because without an effective counterintelligence program both in the CIA and the FBI, the problem of double agents and infiltrators is insurmountable." To put it bluntly: the job of the counterspy is to root out the traitors and spies -- including particularly those in the intelligence community and national security departments, services and industries. The Soviet KGB scored great successes when it was able to penetrate the UK and US counterintelligence establishments, thanks to traitors Kim Philby and Aldrich Ames.
The job of the counterspy is one of the most unpleasant in any intelligence agency because he must constantly question the bona fides of colleagues and sources, and the validity of information obtained. Frequently the counterspy is scrutinizing the activities of officials of much higher rank than his own. If overdone, such suspicions can ruin morale and an organization.
The need for effective counterintelligence continues today as pressure to infiltrate U.S. intelligence agencies will probably increase as the U.S undertakes to build a missile defense system. With a KGB colonel now president of Russia, and Communist China seeking the secrets of American technology, effective counterintelligence is the order of the day. (Wash Times 17Jan 2001 Commentary, Arnold Beichman (research fellow at the Hoover Institution) http://www.washtimes.com/commentary/commentary-2001117234018.htm  (Jonkers)

HOMELAND SECURITY -- At least three high-level commissions and a broad overview of future international trends by the CIA during the last month have concluded that the United States homeland faces a serious risk of attack in coming years. Homeland defense is a complex issue in part because it is not solely a military problem. Threats as diverse as disruptions of commercial computer networks, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and a variety of public- health responses, are all included. The reports call for a defensive scheme that would involve broad coordination among more than several dozen federal departments, agencies and bureaus, in addition to hundreds of different state and local governmental structures.
Today, this structure functions in a tangled and inefficient manner with no central leader who possesses the authority and controls funding to make required changes, virtually all of the reports conclude. The measures required to untangle this interagency morass already are sparking debate among experts.
The boldest proposal, still being fleshed out, is to create a new National Homeland Security Agency, stated in a draft proposal by the United States Commission on National Security/21st Century, established by Defense Secretary William Cohen. The commission's report is scheduled for release in early February. This proposed new agency would take the present Federal Emergency Management Agency, which responds to national disasters, and combine it with the Coast Guard, Border Patrol and the Customs Service to fashion a more comprehensive approach to homeland security. Other functions now performed by the FBI and the Commerce Department, such as various types of critical infrastructure protection including national electrical grids, also would be transferred to this new agency.
On the face of it, this proposal does not seem to have much chance of being accepted in the real world. More likely of success is the establishment of a position in the White House to oversee and coordinate matters. In any case, this is an issue that will be the center of attention for some time to come -- and will involve and affect the Intelligence Community. (DefNews 15Jan2001 p.1 // Robert Holtzer)(Jonkers)

SECTION III -- CYBER NEWS

DEFENSE SPACE COORDINATION AND ANALYSIS WEBSITE -- The Defense Department announced the creation of a new browser-based tool to coordinate space-related planning. The new website, http://www.space.gov/  is a defense department site NOT accessible to the general public. The SPACE acronym stands for Strategic Planning Architectures Collaborative Environment. The development of the site was approved in May 2000, and will include four different security levels. It currently includes reports on National space management, NIMA and NRO.

SECTION IV -- BOOKS AND OTHER SOURCES

REPORT of the Independent Commission on the National Imagery and Mapping Agency http://www.nimacommission.com  DCI George Tenet noted that this unclassified report about the newest Intelligence Community agency is a welcome addition to the dialogue that must exist between government and the people it serves. (CIA PA release 09 Jan 2001) ( http://www.cia.gov/cia/public_affairs/pas.html )

ODD MAN OUT: Truman, Stalin, Mao and the Origins of the Korean War, by Dr. Richard C. Thornton, Brassey's, 2000, 448 pages, ISBN 1-57488-240-6. The author is professor of history and international relations at George Washington University. His book is a detailed review of the political, diplomatic and military events that led to the outbreak of the Korean War, and its aftermath. Using documents recently made available in this country, China and Russia, he examines the intricate moves that Truman and Stalin made in 1949 and 1950, prior to the attack by North Korea. He shows that Stalin pushed the North Koreans into attacking the South, but did not provide sufficient materiel or effective planning support to insure victory. The steps that Mao took in 1950 to bring China into the war are also meticulously described.
As a former Air Force intelligence officer, I was gratified to read the documentary proof that our government was not surprised by the June 25, 1950 attack on South Korea. The intelligence was there. Our leaders did not use it. Dr. Thornton's principal argument is that in the maneuvering by the three national leaders, Mao was repeatedly duped by Stalin, whose main goal was preventing a rapprochement between the US and China. When additional information is declassified, particularly relevant communications intelligence, many of Dr. Thornton's conclusions will be reinforced. (Reviewed by AFIO Member Robert M. McAllister)

SECTION V -- LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Alan S. writes on Helgerson: I was away much of Dec, and have just caught up my reading of back AFIO WINs. In late Nov, Mr McCartney reported that John Helgerson's monograph on CIA briefings of Presidents-elect had been posted on the CSI web page. He then noted Helgerson had retired. Not so. JH's most recent assignment at Langley was as Deputy IG under Britt Snider. Last year, when Leo Hazelwood, former CIA Exec Dir, retired, he was NIMA's Deputy Director. John was then detailed by the DCI as Leo's successor. (He's at old DMA site -- called "NIMA/Bethesda" -- on MacArthur Blvd.) (Alan Sokolsky)

Jack writes on the new Russian Website: : Ref. WIN 01-01 item on Russian site publishing information on intelligence. (Since its start in September [2000] Agentura.ru has been posting newspaper articles about international intelligence organizations and providing an outline of how the Russian secret services are structured. The site also posts biographies of secret service officers, reviews, discussions and FAQ with secret service officials. It draws on materials from Russian newspapers and official sources.)
Comments: It has an English language version [see below], but many of the documents and news items are in Russian text on the main website. Examination of the English versions under the headings (hypertext) DOSSIER, TIMELINE, OPPONENT, PRESS, EXPERTS, EQUIPMENT, CULTURE 007 strongly suggest that the texts and the thrust of most of the news "items" are definitely set forth to favor the missions, work and production of the Russian Special Services. The "opponents" section lists all of the rival services of the SVR and the FSB, not Cuban or Mideast services. Lots of names are included to identify journalists who are experts in world intelligence, but none of the "Agentura" staff are listed, and none of the articles or items "name names" of SVR-FSB officers. Soviet era defectors are treated by terms of endearment - like "turncoats" and "psychopaths." No boasting by "Agentura" staff of scandals or classified documents uncovered from Archives of the Russian services. Some effort devoted to authenticating the printed Manifesto of "The Unabomber," Ted Kaczynski as a valid criticism of Western culture . . . . .Gadzooks.
THUS: Agentura.ru ought to remain of interest to scholars and observers of Russian intelligence, but ONLY as a highly likely and clever covert spokesman for these services. By the way, the English translations are of a quality say 2+ /3- rating . . ."me Tarzan you Jane..." (Jack // ref: (www.agentura.ru/english )
( www.nytimes.com/200/12/14/technology/14SPYY.html )

John M. writes on HUMINT - (excerpted) When the Iranian students took over the US Embassy in Tehran, according to published reports, we were caught totally by surprise. This was attributed to the fact that none of the agents at the CIA center in the agency knew the native Persian language of Farsi! A similar situation to Iran may have been the case at the time of the bombings of the embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998. (From the perspective as an interested outsider), we seem to forget that our main intelligence problems now are in the Third World, where communication has little changed from the days when in Africa news traveled by tribal drums, and caravans of camels carried the gossip from Marrakech in Morocco to Cairo in Egypt. We seem to forget, in this internet age, that we in the USA have over 2/3rds of the world's home computers. Very few Pathans in the Khyber Pass have AOL 6.0. Yet these are the very tribal people, Afridis, Yusufzais, and other tribal folk that Osama bin Laden is recruiting into his terror organization. The same goes for Masai cattle herders out near Mount Kilimanjaro, or the Somali clansmen now fighting the new government in Mogadishu.
Like it or not, we are by "default" the heirs of the British Empire, and it is about time we start to learn how to play the great games by the British rules. When England coped for sixty years with the threat of expansion by imperial Russia through Central Asia, her greatest reliance was on agents on the ground, in the souks or bazaars of Kandahar in Afghanistan, in Bokhara (where agent "Bokhara" Burnes earned his name), and in Soghdiana. The information gathered by the British Indian intelligence service (many of whose files are still, I hear, sealed after 100 years) enabled the British raj, or British Indian empire, to keep abreast of every bellow of the Russian bear. This system was featured in Rudyard Kipling's great novel "Kim," which ought to be required reading for every CIA wallah in the George Bush building. The system was surely primitive, the telegraph was high technology then, but the British kept the Russian bear at bay for over a century. Even after India gained its independence, New Delhi followed (and may still) follow the rules of the great game.
The CIA, and to paraphrase Tiny Tim in the "Christmas Carol," "God bless them, everyone," must realize quite simply that first world intelligence gathering does not work in a third world threat environment, where the only one who has a television set is the head man in the village! A good way to remember the hidden, but vital, communication that still goes on from people to people in the Third World is to remember that, in the Arab world, the camel, which cannot speak but always seems to be smiling, is considered the wisest creature of all. Why? Because man only knows the 99 names of god--only the camel knows the 100th, which is why he is always smiling! (John Murphy.)

SECTION VI -- ODDS AND ENDS

UNIT DEACTIVATION -- Member Jerry Vitarelli, sent us a reminder that the 497th Information Operations Group will be deactivating in a special ceremony on 1 Feb 01. "This is not a sad farewell, this will be a new beginning with even greater challenges and many new faces as we transition to the The Air Force Intelligence Analysis Agency (AFIAA) in the NCR and the AC2ISR Center at Langley AFB." (Z-gram 15 Jan)

EMPLOYMENT Heads-up, Defense Security Service's CI Office has initiated a process to hire 3 intelligence specialists to work in the Metro DC commuting area. The duty requires analytic production associated with protecting defense research and technology performed by cleared contractors. Details will be more elaborate in the vacancy announcements that appear in the near future on the OSD website http://persec.whs.mil (z-gram 18 Jan)
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