AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #02-07 dated 15 January 2007

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced for non-profit educational uses by members and WIN subscribers. WINs are edited by Ernest Hampson, Ph.D., with input from AFIO members and staff.
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26 January 07 - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Winter Luncheon
Stephen R. Kappes, Deputy Director, CIA
speaking OFF-THE-RECORD on
"CIA 2007 New Directions and Missions,"
and
James M. Olson, former CIA DDO Officer, now at Texas A&M University.
on "FAIR PLAY: The Moral Dilemmas of Spying"
Space limited. $48 pp members; $59 pp non-members. Location: Holiday Inn, Tysons Corner, VA. Generous covered parking. Three course luncheon, Cash Bar. Registration at 10:30 a.m.; Olson at 11 a.m.; Lunch at noon; Kappes at 1:00 p.m. Borders Books will have many new intelligence titles available to browse or purchase. Other authors will be present. Members given preference on date of registration basis. Kappes talk is OFF THE RECORD.
Secure Online, Fax, and Mail-in registration here.

Other AFIO NATIONAL 2007 LUNCHEONS
Friday, 26 January
Friday, 18 May
Friday, August 17

Holiday Inn Hotel, Tysons Corner/Vienna, VA


SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE
MI5 CHIEF ASSURED PARLIAMENT THERE WAS NO IMMINENT TERRORIST THREAT DAY BEFORE LONDON UNDERGROUND ATTACKS
ISRAEL PLANS PREEMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST IRAN WITH TACTICAL NUKES BASED BASED ON MOSSAD ASSESSMENT
U.S. AIR FORCE STRIKES AL-QAEDA TARGETS IN SOMALIA
PRESIDENT BUSH GIVES CIA OKAY TO OPPOSE HEZBOLLAH
ARCHBISHOP OF WARSAW RESIGNS AS HE ADMITS TO SPYING FOR THE SECRET POLICE
SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE
FORMER EAST GERMAN POLITICIAN FORGIVES HUSBAND WHO SNITCHED ON HER TO THE STASI
SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE
CHECK YOUR CHANGE AT THE DOOR- GOVERNMENT WARNS OF TRANSMITTERS IN CANADIAN COINS
MI5 TO BEGIN EMAILING TERROR ALERTS
U.S. SENATE BILL WOULD REQUIRE GOVERNMENT TO DISCLOSE ANY USE OF DATA MINING
SECTION IV - BOOKS, SOURCES AND ISSUES
Books
Bomb Squad: A Year Inside the Nation's Most Exclusive Police Unit by Ted Gerstein and Richard Esposito, Hyperion Books, ISBN: 1401301525, $24.95
Movies
Review of Movie, “The Good Shepherd”
SECTION V - CAREERS, NOTES, LETTERS, QUERIES AND AUTHORS SEEKING ASSISTANCE, CORRECTIONS, OBITUARIES, COMING EVENTS
Careers
Manager, Threat Analysis and Research, Houston, TX
Seeking Assistance
U.S. News & World Report Writer Seeking Personal Stories of Problems with Personnel Security Clearance Process
 
Obituaries
Roberta Morgan Wohlstetter, 94, Military Intelligence Analyst, died 6 January
Coming Events Next Two Months ONLY
15-19 January 2007 - Fair Oaks, VA - InfoOps, OSINT, & Peacekeeping Intelligence. 50% discount for AFIO Members
19 January 2007 - Washington, DC - Spies on Screen: The Manchurian Candidate
20 January 07 - Kennebunk, ME - AFIO Maine will bring Maine's 9/11 memorial to Kennebunk for the meeting
24 January 2007 - Albuquerque, NM - the AFIO Tom Smith New Mexico Chapter hosts luncheon
25 January 2007 - Washington, DC - Alliance of Enemies: The Untold Story of the Secret American and German Collaboration to End WWII.
26 - 27 January 07 - Springfield, VA - Intelligence and Ethics 2007 Conference
30 January - 1 February 2007 - Ft. McNair, Washington, D.C. - National Defense University Defense Transformation and Interagency Operations Seminar
7 February 2007 - Las Vegas, NV - The AFIO Las Vegas Chapter
9 February 2007 - New York, NY - AFIO - New York Metro Chapter hosts HAL VAUGHAN and LEWIS JOHNSON
15 February 2007 - Colorado Springs, CO - AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter meets at Air Force Academy
16 February 2007 - Houston, TX - AFIO Houston Chapter hosts James L. Pavitt, former DDO CIA and Don K. Clark, former SAC FBI Houston
17 February 2007 - Carrollton, TX - Metroplex Intelligence Association Group Meeting
27 February 07 - San Francisco, CA - AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter hosts luncheon featuring Gen Ronald L. Burgess, Jr., Principal Deputy to Amb. John Negroponte, former Director of National Intelligence
17 March 07 - Kennebunk, ME - AFIO Maine Chapter hosts Dr. Christopher T. Yeaw speaking on WMD and Nuclear Proliferation.

AND newly added to calendar is:
4-5 May 2007- Saratoga Springs, NY- The Naval Cryptologic Veterans Association New England Chapter Reunion
2007 – AFIO Houston Chapter Meetings

For Additional Events two+ months or more....view our online Calendar of Events

SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

MI5 CHIEF ASSURED PARLIAMENT THERE WAS NO IMMINENT TERRORIST THREAT DAY BEFORE LONDON UNDERGROUND ATTACKS On the morning of July 6th, the day before the synchronized suicide attacks on the London subway that killed 52 people, Dame Eliza Manningham-Buller, Chief of MI5, assured senior members of parliament that there was no imminent threat of terrorist attacks on London or elsewhere in the country. She said the security situation was under control. Dame Eliza recently announced her retirement, although those close to the MI5 Chief say her retirement has nothing to do with the publicizing of details surrounding the 7/7 bombing investigation. Besides the assurance MI5 gave parliament, sources say MI5 had two of the bombers under surveillance, but did not move to arrest them. According to sources, MI5 was following the bombing plot's leader, Mohammed Siddique Khan, for over a year- listening to his phone calls and photographing him- yet were unable to identify him. The realization that MI5 was so surprised by the events of 7/7 has led to some of the bombing victims' families to call for public or independent investigations of the security service to determine where the fault lies. Some members of Parliament that were brief on 6 July said that Dame Eliza appeared "detached from the security operations that must have been taking place at the time."  The Joint Terrorism Analysis Center, headquartered at MI5, had reduced the terrorist threat level from level 2, or "severe-general" to level 3, or "substantial", six weeks before the July 7 bombings. The threat level was subsequently raised back to 2, where it remains today. Whitehall is reviewing candidates to replace Dame Eliza at the helm of MI5. The current favorite is Jonathan Evans, her deputy, who has led MI5's al-Qaeda-related counterterrorist operations. [CL/Guardian 9Jan07/Cobain, Hencke, and Norton-Taylor]

ISRAEL PLANS PREEMPTIVE STRIKE AGAINST IRAN WITH TACTICAL NUKES BASED ON MOSSAD ASSESSMENT The Israeli intelligence agency Mossad is assessing that Iran has advanced its uranium enrichment program sufficiently to produce a nuclear weapon within two years. With that prediction, two Israeli Air Force squadrons have begun practicing an attack on Iran's nuclear production facilities. Since Iran has been burying its facilities under 70 feet of reinforced concrete and rock, Israel believes that conventional weapons are no longer capable of destroying the facilities. Therefore, according to Israeli military sources, at least some of the attack plans include the use of low-yield nuclear-tipped "bunker busters." Under the nuclear option. Israeli pilots would open shafts to the underground facilities with conventional bombs and then drop the nuclear bunker busters down the shafts to create an subsurface detonation, reducing the risk of nuclear fallout. If carried out, the attack would be the first use of nuclear weapons since the U.S. dropped two atomic bombs on Japan at the end of World War II. The Israeli weapons would have an estimated yield 1/15 that of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs. The prime target of such an attack would be the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. The nuclear option would only be considered if the U.S. declined to intervene and if a conventional attack was completely ruled ineffective. Analysts believe that Israel is forecasting its plans in order to cajole the U.S. into action, pressure Tehran to halt its nuclear production, and/or soften world opinion in advance of an Israeli attack. Some fear that Iran could respond to an Israeli attack by cutting oil exports to the West and terrorist attacks on Jewish targets around the world. Israel has warned that it would never allow Iran to develop nuclear weapons, especially in light of Iranian President Ahmadinejad's public statements that Israel should be wiped from the face of the map. In addition to Natanz, Israel would most likely strike the uranium conversion facility at Isfahan, and the heavy water reactor at Arak. Israel believes that the destruction of these three facilities would indefinitely delay Iran's ability to produce nuclear weapons. [LawrenceS/SundayTimes 7Jan07/Mahnaimi and Baxter]

U.S. AIR FORCE STRIKES AL-QAEDA TARGETS IN SOMALIA On 7 January, AC-130 gun ships operated by the U.S. Special Operations Command, struck targets in southern Somalia where the terrorists responsible for the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya where believed to be hiding. The U.S. has long suspected that the bombers were in Somalia, but with the ejection of Islamic militants from Mogadishu recently, the targets were finally out in the open where they could be struck. The U.S. reports that there were several casualties, but it is unknown if the al-Qaeda bombing suspects were among them. This marks the first officially acknowledged military action in Somalia since U.S. forces withdrew in 1993 in the wake of the "Blackhawk Down" incident. The CIA purportedly began making payments to Somali warlords early last year to help hunt down suspected al-Qaeda members. When the Islamic militant group, the Islamic Courts seized power in Mogadishu, Washington made repeated demands for them to turn over the bombing suspects. Then in December, an offensive by the Ethiopian military drove the Islamists from the capital towards the southern port of Kismayo, and Ethiopian intelligence reported that members of al-Qaeda were amongst them. [CL/NYT 8Jan07/Cloud]

PRESIDENT BUSH GIVES CIA OKAY TO OPPOSE HEZBOLLAH In order to prop up the moderate government in Lebanon, and fight the spread of Iranian influence there, President Bush has authorized the CIA to begin providing financial and logistical support to strengthen Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's hold on power. Details of the plan, which was supposed to be super secret and known only to a select circle of insiders, was obtained by the Daily Telegraph. The plan was signed by the President before Christmas and briefedto members of Congress. The plan is characterized as a "Presidential non-lethal finding." The finding authorizes the CIA to fund anti-Hezbollah groups and activist supporters of the Siniora government. However, the secrecy of the operation allows the U.S. government to deny involvement. The move is part of a strategy backed by Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and other moderate Arab states to stem the tide of Iranian influence in the region. The President's National Security Council (NSC) drafted the finding which reflects the President's growing alarm at the power Tehran is emanating throughout the Middle East. Especially concerning to the U.S. was Iran's ability to infiltrate the Iraqi government and begin training Shia death squads in Iraq under the noses of U.S. forces. Among those involved in drafting the plan was Prince Bandar bin-Sultan, the former Saudi Arabian ambassador to Washington. Israel was also supportive of the measure. Bandar, who is now King Abdullah's national security adviser, made several trips to Washington to discuss the plan with Elliot Abrahms, the NSC's senior Middle East official. The Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Turki al-Faisal, resigned last month, purportedly because he was not informed of the plan or Bandar's involvement and visits. Supposedly part of the negotiations to seal Saudi and other Sunni support was a promise by the U.S. and Israel to restart peace plans with the Palestinians. [PJK/Telegraph 10Jan07/Harnden]

ARCHBISHOP OF WARSAW RESIGNS AS HE ADMITS TO SPYING FOR THE SECRET POLICE Amid tears and cries of support, Stanislaw Wielgus, the newly appointed Archbishop of Warsaw, resigned his post just before he was to perform his inaugural mass at the Warsaw Cathedral, admitting that he had acted as an informant for the communist-era secret police. Tension built outside where the Archbishop's supporters clashed with activists calling for Wielgus to step down. According to those detractors, Wielgus began informing for the secret police in 1967 when he was a student at Lublin University. His handlers referred to him as Agent Grey or Adam Wisocki, and directed him to report on the "anti-social" activities of other priests. Once he was asked to infiltrate the offices of Radio Free Europe, but he turned down that assignment. The Vatican, through its spokesman Father Fredrico Lombardi, said, "The behavior of Monsignor Wielgus in the former years of the communist regime in Poland has severely compromised his authority. The relinquishment of his position in Warsaw and the Pope's ready acceptance of his resignation appeared to be an adequate solution, despite his humble and moving request for a pardon." The Vatican has asked Cardinal Josef Glemp, a renowned anti-communist activist and the former Archbishop of Warsaw, to resume his duties until a replacement is named. Glemp, speaking in defense of Wielgus, said the evidence against him was "scraps of papers and documents" and added that "this is not the kind of judgment we need". It is estimated that as much as 15% of the Polish clergy collaborated with the former communist regime. [CL/Telegraph 9Jan07/Day and Moore]


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

GERMAN POLITICIAN FORGIVES HUSBAND WHO SNITCHED ON HER TO THE STASI German politician and former East German dissident Vera Lengsfeld was jailed and exiled based on information provided by her husband to the East German secret police or Stasi. Every conversation and political comment that Lengfeld made at the dinner table was converted into an intelligence report and delivered to the communist government. Lengsfeld's husband and father of her two children, Knud Wollenberger, is suffering from a radical and advanced form of Parkinson's disease. In a letter to his former wife, Wollenberger, who was codenamed "Donald" by the Stasi, claimed that he was attempting to shield her and that his betrayal of her to the Stasi was actually an act of love. He also asked for forgiveness, which Lengsfeld, 54, has given. In 1988, Wollenberger tried to warn Lengsfeld not to attend a peace rally. It is now obvious that Wollenberger knew that the Stasi had planned to arrest Lengsfeld at the rally. She spent a humiliating month in jail and then was expelled from the country. Lengsfeld described her detention at the Hohenschönhausen prison in Berlin, one of the most notorious Stasi detention facilities and now a museum. Lengsfeld was held in a small cell, and had access to an exercise yard that measured seven paces long and five paces wide. She said that prisoners were subjected to radiation and that many were psychologically destroyed. She said that when they were fingerprinted they were made to sit on pieces of cloth that were later stored in air tight jars to collect their smell. "Can you tell me why?” Lengsfeld pleaded. The jars were discovered years later after the fall of the communist government. Lengsfeld learned of her husband's betrayal after the fall of the Berlin Wall and divorced him. She lived for a while in Cambridge, but returned to Germany and entered politics. She is now a deputy in the conservative Christian Democrat party. Her story has drawn the attention of Hollywood, where Meryl Streep was being considered for the lead role. [CL/Times 6Jan07/Boyes]


SECTION III - CYBER INTELLIGENCE

CHECK YOUR CHANGE AT THE DOOR- GOVERNMENT WARNS OF TRANSMITTERS IN CANADIAN COINS The U.S. Government issued a warning to its contractors of a new espionage threat- Canadian coins that contain tiny transmitters. The coins were discovered on three different occasions between October 2005 and January 2006 on U.S. contractors with high-level security clearances after they had traveled in Canada. Experts believe the small radio transmitters could be used to track the movements of individuals possessing them. Who planted the devices and their motivation is unknown. The Pentagon left out other details from the warning, such as how the transmitters were discovered, how they function, and in which Canadian currency denominations they were found. The warning was issued by the Defense Security Service (DSS), who said the report was sanitized of classified information, but assures the public that the incidents did occur and that the threat is real. Although the culprit behind the transmitters is unknown, top suspects include Russia, China, and France, all of whom have active intelligence collection missions inside Canada with sufficient technical expertise. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service said it was unaware of the coin transmitters. "This issue has just come to our attention," CSIS spokeswoman Barbara Campion said. "At this point, we don't know of any basis for these claims." She said Canada's intelligence service works closely with its U.S. counterparts and will seek more information if necessary. Any suspicion that Canada might be spying on the U.S. was rejected by experts who say the U.S. and Canadian intelligence communities are "extraordinarily close" and routinely share highly sensitive secrets. Although technically a coin is a great, inconspicuous hiding place for a transmitter, it would seem to make little sense as the target could easily break surveillance by spending it or depositing it in a piggy bank. [CBSNews 11Jan07/AP]

MI5 TO BEGIN EMAILING TERROR ALERTS Concerned citizens can register on the MI5 website to receive email terror alters. The alerts will contain the subject "MI5 news update" and will be issued whenever the MI5 homepage changes. The emails would warn subscribers of changes to the terror threat level assessment, whether an increase or a decrease. However, experts say that given the number of terror suspects and plots under surveillance, the level is not expected to drop for years. The current level is Severe, the second highest. The threat level has remained at Severe since the bombings of the London subway system in July 2005. It rose briefly to the highest level of critical when the plot to bomb airliners over the Atlantic was disrupted last August. Originally, some ministers were against publicizing the terror threat levels, because they feared they would cause panic without giving the public any information or instructions that might thwart an attack. However, transparency won out over caution and the threat levels have been available on the public website since August. In addition to threat level assessments, the website also contains information about how people can protect themselves. [CL/Telegraph 9Jan07/Johnston]

U.S. SENATE BILL WOULD REQUIRE GOVERNMENT TO DISCLOSE ANY USE OF DATA MINING Senators Russ Feingold (D-WI) and John Sununu (R-NH) introduced a bill that would require the government to report to Congress the development and/or use of any technologies that "discover predictive or anomalous patterns indicating criminal or terrorist activity." Similar bills were introduced over the past two years, but the Republican-led Congress chose not to act on them. Senator Patrick Leahy (D-VT), the new Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee has promised more oversight of government information collection. Leahy contends that not only does the public not have any assurance that their privacy concerns will be protected, but they also have no evidence that the massive data banks protect the country. According to Leahy, 52 agencies of the U.S. government use some form of data mining technology which comprise 119 data mining programs currently active. These numbers do not include the National Security Agency, which has not disclosed its programs claiming they are too sensitive. One of Leahy's chief concerns is that mistakes by data mining software can result in innocent people winding up on watch lists. For example, the terrorist watch list contains over 300,000 names, including those of infants and members of Congress. [WashPost 11Jan07/Nakashima and Klein]


SECTION IV - BOOKS, SOURCES AND ISSUES

Books

Bomb Squad: A Year Inside the Nation's Most Exclusive Police Unit by Ted Gerstein and Richard Esposito, Hyperion Books, ISBN: 1401301525, $24.95 The authors provide a behind-the-scenes look at the operations of the New York Bomb Squad. On New Year’s Eve 2003, Gerstein and Esposito began a year long embed with the bomb squad, witnessing their training, preparation and even live operations. They profile the thirty-three heroes that comprise the squad, and provide insight as to why someone would choose such a dangerous profession. The overwhelming and surprisingly humble response to the latter question is, “Someone has to do it.” The book does not seek to characterize the squad’s efficiency or efficacy. It simply provides an outlet for the brave men of the bomb squad to tell their story, including the events of 9/11 and how one member of their team was lost. [RJE/Amazon, 19Dec06]

Movies

Review of Movie, “The Good Shepherd” Two reviews of The Good Shepherd now appear on the AFIO website at https://www.afio.com/goodshepherd.html We are looking for comments from members who also have had an opportunity to see the film. Also forthcoming is another film on intelligence history which, like The Good Shepherd, have been so thoroughly Hollywoodized as to make the true history unrecognisable. This one is the Robert Hanssen FBI espionage case to be titled "Breach"...which, according to a recent story by Jeff Stein, CQ National Security Editor, is touted to be: "a heart-thumping thriller with FBI supersleuths cornering the evil genius." Stein well describes how far off the mark the film is from the facts of that real life spy chase. More on this when the film appears.
 


SECTION V - CAREERS, NOTES, LETTERS, QUERIES AND AUTHORS SEEKING ASSISTANCE, CORRECTIONS, OBITUARIES, COMING EVENTS
[IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" nor endorse career offers, research inquiries or announcements. Reasonable-sounding inquiries are published as a service to members. Exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information or making referrals to colleagues. Members should obtain prior approval from their agencies before answering questions that would impact ongoing military or intelligence operations - even if unclassified. Never assume public inquiries about classified projects means they've been declassified. Be attuned to false-flagging.

Careers

Manager, Threat Analysis and Research, Houston, TX Security Management Resources, Inc.® is recruiting for a qualified candidate to serve as the research focal point for the Security team’s efforts to formulate and execute policies and programs regarding security threats and risks to personnel and operations.
    Purpose and Justification: The Chief Security Officer, Global Security and Crisis Management must provide security and geo-political guidance consistent with security and Company policies and objectives. Although broad guidelines exist, there are many situations whereby guidelines are inadequate in dealing with controversial security challenges and detailed analysis is necessary to interrupt raw information. The incumbent will perform a wide variety of long-range inter-related planning, research, analysis and collection efforts of domestic and diverse international locations in determining actual threats and associated risks. The post holder must have latitude, resourcefulness and judgment in carrying out complex assignments and analysis. The role requires developing new concepts and methodologies for unprecedented problems and experimental approaches and solutions.
    The incumbent identifies, develops and executes research and analytical techniques regarding unevaluated information of great complexity and corporate sensitivity. The incumbent establishes requirements and methodologies while considering many variables to include corporate, economic, political, military and national ramifications. The incumbent challenges accepted beliefs as new information warrants. Challenges encountered in this role present a broad spectrum of overlapping complexities that require simultaneous response to legal, political, international, operational and organizational aspects to resolve interpretations of threats and risks.
    The incumbent’s decisions and recommendations on controversial or novel matters must be accepted as technically sound. The incumbent represents the organization at top-level working groups and committees and provides assistance in the incumbent’s field of expertise. Such work involves archival research; field interviews; investigative efforts and the analysis and reporting of related information detailing threat and risk scenarios or incidents.
    The incumbent works with a high degree of independence and must rely on professional judgment, technical background and personal initiative. As a recognized expert, his/her results are viewed only for compliance with directives and decisions and usually not questioned on a technical basis.
    Job Dimensions: The scope of the business activity that this post holder supports is approximately $7B in geographically dispersed businesses operating in 90+ countries. The Manager, Threat Analysis and Research supports the CSO, Global Security and Crisis Management, the Regional Security Directors, Director, Information Security, Director, Crisis Management, the Executive Team and Main Board of Directors in advising them on security exposures, risks and the impact of geo-political events as they relate to Company business decisions.
    Qualifications & Skills: Bachelors or Masters Degree in related field and 10 years experience in geo-politics or security; demonstrated ability to read, interpret and analyze voluminous amounts of data in short time; exercise effective independent judgments in a fast moving, high pressure and demanding environment with competing priorities; analyze conflicting facts and estimates derived from numerous sources while taking into account historical information and internal and external technical, military, governmental, economic, and political considerations; knowledge of inductive and deductive reasoning to conduct archival research and analysis and evaluate the validity of data, analyze information reports and present a coherent Global Security position; thorough knowledge of research on the effects of war or hostilities to interpret information and devise positions after assessing often fragmentary, inconsistent and unsubstantiated and diverse source materials; possess specialized subject-matter knowledge to apply, project and revise long-range security estimates for areas of operations with complex problems; ability to communicate effectively (in writing & orally) complex and sensitive situations to various levels of the organization and external environments; self-starter with an ability to operate with minimal supervision; effective at developing internal and external alliances; experience liaising with international, federal, state and local government and law enforcement/information sources and private industrial security.
    Resume Submittal: Interested candidates should submit their resumes via the position posting on the SMR website at: http://www.smrgroup.com.

Seeking Assistance

U.S. News & World Report Writer Seeking Personal Stories of Problems with Personnel Security Clearance Process For a newsmagazine article on the need for reform of the intelligence security clearance process. I would like to hear from anyone with a recent personal story that illustrates the problems with the current process in providing expeditious yet thorough background checks. Linda Robinson, Senior Writer, U.S. News & World Report (and AFIO associate member). email: mlrobinson@usnews.com.

Obituaries

Roberta Morgan Wohlstetter, 94, Military Intelligence Analyst, died 6 January In the wake of the September 11th terrorist attacks on the U.S. homeland, the classic analysis that Roberta Wohlstetter compiled on the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor gained new life and relevancy. Her 1962 book, “Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision,” contained an eerily familiar theme- intelligence analysts failed to identify and synthesize the legitimate signals of the attack that were present amid the cacophony of irrelevant information. In other words, they suffered from information overload and failed to connect the dots. The failure was abetted by a wall of compartmentalization of highly classified information that was never shared with the people who could have taken action. The 9/11 Commission cited Wohlstetter’s work in their findings sixty years after the attack on Pearl Harbor. Mrs. Wohlstetter had problems getting her original work, which was based wholly on unclassified sources, published. The NSA said the material in the book was so sensitive that Mrs. Wohlstetter did not have sufficient clearance to read her own book. The NSA’s opposition was overridden when the Kennedy administration came into office. The book was awarded the Bancroft Prize in history in 1962, and she was named the Los Angeles Times woman of the year in 1963.
    Mrs. Wohlstetter stayed involved in both academia and government. She taught at the University of Chicago, Howard University and Barnard College, and was on the staff at RAND, the California think tank, from 1948 until 1965 and remained its consultant until 2002. In 1985, President Reagan awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Roberta Wohlstetter and her husband Albert Wohlstetter, a nuclear deterrent scientist. In his presentation, Reagan said, "[They] have shaped the ideas and deeds of statesmen and have helped create a safer world. Over four decades, they have marshaled logic, science and history and enlarged our democracy's capacity to learn and to act." Her and Albert’s work after India exploded a nuclear device in 1975 was credited with changes in U.S. energy export policy. Mrs. Wohlstetter served on a number of committees including the Council of Foreign Relations, the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Defense Science Board, and she served on the advisory board of the National Intelligence Study Center.
    Roberta Wohlstetter was born in Duluth, Minnesota and received her undergraduate degree from Vassar College. She continued her education, receiving a master’s degree in criminal psychology from Columbia in 1936 and a second master’s in comparative literature from Radcliffe in 1937.
    Mrs. Wohlstetter died on January 6th at New York Presbyterian Hospital of complications due to pneumonia. Her survivors include a brother and a granddaughter. [CL/WashPost 10Jan07/Sullivan]

Coming Events

15-19 January 2007 - Fair Oaks, VA - InfoOps, OSINT, & Peacekeeping Intelligence. 50% discount for AFIO Members For more information see http://www.oss.net/IOP

19 January 2007 - Washington, DC - Spies on Screen: The Manchurian Candidate. For further info or to register view our online Calendar of Events

20 January 07 - Kennebunk, ME - AFIO Maine will bring Maine's 9/11 memorial to Kennebunk for the meeting Michael Clarke, Bath, Maine fire dept. Captain, who went to New York City the day after the attacks as a member the of FEMA USAR Team Task Force l, located in Beverly, MA. will be the speaker. Clarke grew up on Long Island and was a fifth generation New York firefighter before coming to Maine. The memorial features a section of steel girder from one of the World Trade Center towers. Only a few sections of girders have been released and Bath's is believed to be the only fire department in New England to have a section. The memorial, which weighs 550 lbs., will remain on display at the Kennebunk Free Library for two to three weeks following the meeting. The meeting, which is open to the public, will be held at the library in Kennebunk at 2:00 p.m. Contact 207-985-2392 for information.

24 January 2007 - Albuquerque, NM - the AFIO Tom Smith New Mexico Chapter will hold a luncheon meeting at the Albuquerque Petroleum Club. Speaker TBA. For details contact bajaloie@cybermesa.com

Thursday, 25 January 2007 - Washington, DC - Alliance of Enemies: The Untold Story of the Secret American and German Collaboration to End WWII. For further info or to register view our online Calendar of Events

26 January 07 - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Winter Luncheon - Stephen R. Kappes, Deputy Director, CIA speaking OFF-THE-RECORD on "CIA 2007 Directions and Missions," and
James M. Olson, former CIA DDO Officer, Bush School of Government and Public Service, Texas A&M University. on "FAIR PLAY: The Moral Dilemmas of Spying" Space limited. $48 pp members; $59 pp non-members. Location: Holiday Inn, Tysons Corner, VA. Generous covered parking. Three course luncheon, Cash Bar. Registration at 10:30 a.m.; Olson at 11 a.m.; Lunch at noon; Kappes at 1:00 p.m. Borders Books will have many new intelligence titles available to browse or purchase. Other authors will be present. Members given preference on date of registration basis. Kappes talk is OFF THE RECORD.Secure Online registration available here.

26 - 27 January 07 - Springfield, VA - Intelligence and Ethics 2007 Conference The International Intelligence Ethics Association (IIEA) will be hosting an Ethics conference. Full details can be found at www.intelligence-ethics.org.

30 January - 1 February 2007 - Ft. McNair, Washington, D.C. - National Defense University Defense Transformation and Interagency Operations Seminar In cooperation with Forces Transformation and Resources (OUSD-P), The National Defense University's (NDU) Center for Technology and National Security Policy is organizing a three-day seminar on Defense Transformation and Interagency Operations. This seminar will be held in Marshall Hall 155, NDU, Fort McNair, Washington DC 20319. You are cordially invited to attend this informative and interactive seminar. There is no charge for this seminar. Please note that the regular ndu.edu email server is down for at least 4 weeks for maintenance. We now have this gmail.com account to take registrations. To register for the course, please provide Personal Information: Rank/ Title, Position, First Name, Last Name, Organization, Citizenship; Mailing Address: Street Address, City, State, Zip Code; Contact Information:
Telephone, Fax, Email and send it to: CTNSP.NCO@gmail.com. The seminar is filling up quickly, and we look forward to your participation.

Wednesday, 7 February 2007 - Las Vegas, NV - The AFIO Las Vegas Chapter is hosting an evening meeting featuring speaker Ken Walther worked as an undercover Technical Operations Officer for CIA for 27 years before retiring from the Agency in 1996. He will be speaking on "Bujumbura, Burundi -- the Terror of Tribalism" - How this country has been involved with brutal tribalism for decades and the mayhem of rotating from Rwanda to Burundi and back. What was, or could have been done and how the impact on foreigners and diplomats assigned to countries experiencing such warfare was indelibly stamped. During his career with the CIA, Walther spent seventeen years serving on overseas assignments and his work led him to visit 101 countries and was awarded the Intelligence Medal of Merit and the Career Intelligence Medal. Prior to the Agency, he also served in the Army Security Agency and was involved with Tactical SIGINT collection. Event starts at 6 p.m. at Nellis Air Force Base Officers' Club. All guests must use the MAIN GATE located at the intersection on Craig and Las Vegas Blvd. Address: 5871 Fitzgerald Blvd., Nellis AFB, NV 89191 Phone: 702-644-2582. Registration deadline to submit names of guests is Thursday, February 1st. Arrive early and join other chapter members in the bar area. Feel free to bring a spouse and/or guest(s) to dinner as well as the meeting. If you should encounter any difficulties entering the base, please call the Chapter Corresponding Secretary cell phone, at 443-3623 (after 4:00 p.m. on February 7th), and she will provide assistance. You may email or call me at 702-295-0073 if you have any questions. We look forward to seeing you! Christine J. Eppley, Chapter Corresponding Secretary

Friday, 9 February 2007 - New York, NY - AFIO - New York Metro Chapter hosts HAL VAUGHAN and LEWIS JOHNSON. Vaughan is author of FDR and the Twelve Apostles: The Spies Who Paved the Way for the the Invasion of North Africa. He served 40 years as a U.S. Diplomat and newsman. Johnson is a WWII USAF fighter pilot active in the North African and European air wars. Event will take place at Society of Illustrators Building 128 East 63rd Street Manhattan 6:00 PM Start Buffet dinner. Details to follow. Further info from Jerry Goodwin, President, AFIO - New York Metropolitan Chapter, 212-308-1450 or at afiometro@yahoo.com

15 February 07 - Colorado Springs, CO - AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter holds luncheon meeting at the Falcon Room, Air Force Academy Officers Club. The speaker is Mike Popolano, a retired FBI agent with 30 years with the FBI. Reservations required. Contact Dick Durham, Chapter Treasurer at 719-488-2884 or by e-mail at: riverwear53@aol.com Reservations must be sent to Durham not later than 12 February. The cost is $10.00.

Friday, 16 February 2007 - Houston, TX - AFIO Houston Chapter hosts James L. Pavitt, former DDO CIA, and and Don K. Clark, Former Special Agent-in-Charge of the Houston Field Office of the FBI. Cost $50 per person, by reservation only. Full details and maps at chapter web site http://afiohouston.com/news.html.

17 February 2007 - Carrollton, TX - Metroplex Intelligence Association Group Meeting MIAG seeks to form a group of various intelligence association members in the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex, who would otherwise not meet as a single affiliated association on a local level. Members of the following associations and organizations are invited: Marine Corps Intelligence Association, Inc. (MCIA, Inc.), Naval Intelligence Professionals (NIP), Military Intelligence Corps Association (MICA), Army Security Agency Association (ASAA), National Military Intelligence Association (NMIA), Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO), Members of the Service Reserve and National Guard w/intelligence MOS. As a group of multiple associations the MIAG is seeking strength in numbers at this local level to present programs of mutual interest and knowledge. At this meeting, they seek to present a one hour showing of “Obsession, Radical Islam’s War Against the West”, a brief on the recent Israeli battle with Hezbollah in S. Lebanon (20 minutes), and discuss future activities, programs and meeting dates. Sandwiches, sodas, beer, etc., will be available for purchase from the Broadway Bistro. Plan on arriving 15-20 minutes prior to noon so that you can purchase lunch and eat it while watching the showing. They plan to start the DVD- Obsession- as close to 1200 noon as possible. Location: Executive Meeting Room, Broadway Bistro, 1101 S. Broadway Street, Carrollton, TX 75006, (Two story building corner of W. Main St. & S. Broadway across from the parking lot with the white gazebo). Point of Contact (POC): Steve Eklund, Captain, USMC (Ret.), member of MCIA, Inc. and NMIA. Tel: 214.223.3792. Email: eklundstephen@yahoo.com.

27 February 07 - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter hosts luncheon featuring Gen Ronald L. Burgess, Jr., Principal Deputy to Amb. John Negroponte, former Director of National Intelligence Topic: Update on American Intelligence. He has scheduled his trip to California at our request to speak. We recommend you make your reservations early through Mary Lou. In view of the high public information value of the event, students will be admitted at the membership rate. Time: 11:30 a.m. Cocktails, Noon - Start of Luncheon. Location: United Irish Cultural Center (UICC) - St. Patrick's Room (2nd Floor), 2700 - 45th Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94116 (45th between Sloat and Wawona). Cost: $25 per person, Member Rate - with advance reservations; $35 per person, Non-Member Rate or at door without reservation. For advance reservations, please send the names of the attendees, along with a check made out to AFIO for the luncheon to Mary Lou Anderson at 46 Anchorage Rd, Sausalito, CA 94109 or call her at 415-332-6440 or by email at mlanderson945@comcast.net

17 March 07 - Kennebunk, ME - AFIO Maine Chapter presents The Current Terrorism Threat...and what you can do about it. It is a program seeking to provide a look at the threat we are facing, the need for both citizens and public servants to be better informed ,and what they can do in terms of prevention. The speaker is a representative from the International Association for Counterterrorism and Security Professionals. He has served in the U S Army Special Forces, including service in Operation Enduring Freedom, U. S. Department of Homeland Security, and in the private sector. This material has been extensively presented at a wide number of national and international conferences. The meeting, which is open to the public, will begin at 2:00 p.m. at the Kennebunk Free Library, Main St., Kennebunk. Call 207-985-2392 for information.

4-5 May 2007- Saratoga Springs, NY- The Naval Cryptologic Veterans Association New England Chapter Reunion For information, please call (603)881-7752, or visit website http://www.ncva-ne.org. Membership is open to all individuals who served with the U.S. Naval Security Group or are serving with its counterpart in NETWARCOM. New members are welcome.

18 May 07 - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Winter Luncheon - Hold date on your calendars. Event to be held at the Holiday Inn Hotel, Tysons Corner/Vienna, VA. Details to follow. afio@afio.com

17 August 07 - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Winter Luncheon - Hold date on your calendars. Event to be held at the Holiday Inn Hotel, Tysons Corner/Vienna, VA. Details to follow. afio@afio.com

2007 – AFIO Houston Chapter Meetings Upcoming meetings for the Houston Chapter of AFIO in 2007:
    Friday, February 2, 2007
        Speaker will be James L. Pavitt, former DDO CIA
    Friday, April 6, 2007
        Speaker confirmed. Announced later for security reasons.
    Friday, June 29, 2007
        Speaker scheduling. Announced later for security reasons.
    Friday, August 31, 2007
        1st Annual Buckley Symposium on Intelligence
    Friday, November 9, 2007
        Speaker scheduling. Announced later for security reasons.
Other meetings are being scheduled now. Most meetings are members only or registered guests. No tickets at the door.
All Dinner Meetings in Houston, Unless Noted, 1800h (6pm) Cocktails.
 

For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events

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