AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #23-07 dated 18 June 2007

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Interesting Sites

Book Reviews


Coming Events

    Current Calendar Next Two Months ONLY:

19 June 2007 - Arlington, VA - Defense Intelligence Forum luncheon at the Alpine Restaurant, 4770 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA

24 June 2007 - St. Charles, IL - The Midwest Chapter of AFIO meets at the St. Charles Place restaurant

25 June 2007 - Scottsdale, AZ - The Arizona AFIO Chapter hears from Dr. Rustick on Special Weapons for Special Forces.

28 June 2007 - San Francisco, CA - AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter hosts BG Joseph L. Shaefer, USAF (Ret) on "Up a Lazy River: The Right Time, The Wrong ABC's."

28 June 2007, 12 Noon - 1 PM - Washington, DC - Tennent Bagley discusses his book: "Spy Wars: Moles, Mysteries, and Deadly Games"

29 June 2007 - Houston, TX - AFIO Houston Chapter event

30 June 2007 - Nashua, NH - CIRA New England Chapter holds special New England meeting

July 11, 2007: 9:00 am - Noon - Alexandria, VA - Ray Semko, aka the one and only "D*I*C*E Man", presents D*I*C*E 2007: UNLEASHED!

19 July 2007 - Colorado Springs, CO - AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter holds luncheon meeting on MASINT

20 - 21 July 2007 - Northampton, MA - AFIO New England holds their summer weekend event at the Hotel Northampton, Northampton, MA

4 August 2007 - Melbourne, FL - AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter meets at the Indian River Colony Club

  For Additional Events two+ months or more....view our online Calendar of Events


Vietnamese President Pardons Convicted Spy. On June 8, Vietnamese President Nguyen Minh Triet pardoned convicted spy Nguyen Vu Binh after Binh had sent a letter pleading for clemency. Binh was sentenced to seven years in prison and three years of probation in May 2004 for spying. Binh, who had already served more than two-thirds of his sentence, expressed in his letter his wish to be reunited with his family and pledged to fully exercise his rights and obligations of a citizen. He also thanked the Nam Ha prison management for their care while he was serving his sentence there.  [VietnamNet/10June2007]

CIA Declassifies Records. The CIA recently delivered more than 420,000 additional pages of redacted declassified electronic records to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) facility in College Park, Maryland. The declassified CIA records are hosted on the CIA Records Search Tool (CREST), which is an electronic search and retrieval system. CREST now includes more than 10 million pages of records declassified under Executive Order 12958.

Records declassification is required by Executive Order 12958, which was signed by former President Bill Clinton. This Executive Order requires Intelligence Community agencies to review all nonexempt records that are 25 years old or older for declassification. As a result, millions of pages of previously classified information are now available for research at the NARA facility in College Park; moreover, these previously classified records are increasingly cited in academic publications on intelligence.

CREST allows users to search for records using key words, as well to print the redacted images. CREST includes a wide variety of records on nearly every topic related to the Cold War and the early history of the CIA. This includes significant collections of finished intelligence from the Directorate of Intelligence; Directorate of Operations (now National Clandestine Service) information reports from the late 1940s and 1950s; Directorate of Science and Technology research and development files; Director, Central Intelligence Agency policy files and memos; and Directorate of Support logistics and other records. CREST also contains declassified imagery reports from the former National Photographic Interpretation Center, the STAR GATE remote viewing program files, and several specialized collections of translations from foreign media.  Source:CIA  [SOP/10June2007]

Important US Military Information Compromised in Spy Case. The recent case of a family spy ring of five Chinese agents in California revealed that China has acquired sensitive US military information. Tai Mak, his wife, Fuk Li, and their son, Billy Mak, all pleaded guilty to charges related to the illegal export of defense technology to China. Court documents show the spy ring compromised sensitive data for Navy warships, submarines and aircraft carriers, the extent of which is still being investigated. The last member of the spy ring, Rebecca Chiu, pleaded guilty to being a Chinese agent. She is the wife of Chi Mak, a Chinese-born U.S. defense contractor and the central figure in the ring, who was convicted last month of conspiring to supply sensitive but unclassified defense technology to a Chinese intelligence agent identified as Pu Pei-liang.

A court document made public this week revealed that information involved in the case was extremely sensitive. It included data on the Navy's advance propulsion system called the Quiet Electric Drive to be used on both warships and submarines. One intelligence official said the system can make the huge engines sound "like a Lexus at idle." The document stated that if the information reached China it would allow Beijing's military to track U.S. submarines and surface ships. The submarine data were described as "extremely sensitive information." Other compromised data included information on the Navy's DDX next-generation destroyer and U.S. aircraft carrier programs, something China is interested in building.

Joel Brenner, a senior U.S. counterintelligence coordinator, said in a recent speech that Chi Mak had admitted he had passed information to the Chinese since 1983, and that the technologies compromised included the power distribution technology for the Aegis cruiser's radar system. "This compromise is not small potatoes," Mr. Brenner said. "It shortens by years the technological advantage of the U.S. Navy. It degrades the Navy's deterrent capability in the Taiwan Strait. And it puts the lives of our sons and daughters in the Navy at risk. From a purely fiscal point of view, it also means the Chinese are leveraging the American R&D budget - your tax dollars and mine - in support of their own war-fighting capability." [dh/ /Washington Times/Gertz/8June2007] 

India's Stolen Secrets. A Bangladeshi spy, Dhimanchand Malik, breached the country's highest and securest office - the Prime Minister's Office or (PMO) and the Cabinet Secretariat. Malik, who served as a high ranking deputy director of the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) for five years, fled the country after the Counter Intelligence Unit of the Cabinet Secretariat questioned his past. Authorities believe Malik leaked confidential security information and that he stole sensitive documents. As a Deputy Director, Malik had access to information on security alerts, troop movements, military intercepts and other sensitive information. Between 1999 and 2003, Malik handled the North-East desk and was in charge of intelligence collation, giving him access to all intelligence information on the North-East during that period. 

Over the years, a spate of espionage cases has rocked the nation. Joint secretary in RAW, Rabinder Singh, defected to the US on June 5, 2004. In 2002, 12 former staff of the PMO and the Rashtrapati Bhavan Secretariat were sentenced to 10 years' rigorous imprisonment in the Coomar Narain espionage case of 1985. [TimesNow/12June2007]

CIA Plans Cutbacks, Limits on Contractor Staffing. Acting under pressure from Congress, the CIA has decided to trim its contractor staffing by 10 percent. It is the agency's first effort since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks to curb what critics have decried as the growing privatization of U.S. intelligence work, a circumstance that has sharply boosted some personnel costs. 

Contractors currently make up about one-third of the CIA workforce, but CIA Director Michael V. Hayden has said that their work has not been efficiently managed. Associate Deputy Director Michael Morell said in an interview that he does not think the CIA has become a revolving door, but "Director Hayden has said we don't want to become the farm team for contractors."

Morell said reviews are underway "to identify which of our jobs here at CIA should be done by staff and which of our jobs should be done by contractors or a 'mix' of contractors and staff." Effective June 1, the agency also began to bar contracting firms from hiring former CIA employees and then offering the employees' services to the CIA within the first year and a half of their retirement from the agency - a practice known as "bidding back."  [pjk/pincus&barr/WashingtonPost/11June2007]

French Say 'Non' to U.S. Disclosure of Secret Satellites. A French space-surveillance radar has detected 20-30 satellites in low Earth orbit that are not listed in the U.S. Defense Department's published catalogue, a discovery that French officials say they will use to pressure U.S. authorities to stop publishing the whereabouts of French reconnaissance and military communications satellites. After 16 months of operations of their Graves radar system, which can locate satellites in orbits up to 1,000 kilometers in altitude and even higher in certain cases, the French Defense Ministry says it has gathered just about enough information to negotiate an agreement with the United States.

The U.S. Defense Department's Space Surveillance Network is the world's gold standard for cataloguing satellites and debris in both low Earth orbit and the higher geostationary orbit at 36,000 kilometers in altitude, where telecommunications satellites operate.

Data from the U.S. network of ground-based sensors is regularly published and used worldwide by those tracking satellite and space-debris trajectories. The published U.S. information excludes sensitive U.S. defense satellites, but regularly publishes data on the orbits of other nations' military hardware. 

US Intelligence Chief Working to Change 1981 Executive Order on National Security. Intelligence Director Mike McConnell has won White House approval to begin revising a 1981 executive order that lays out each spy agency's responsibilities and the government's protections against spying on Americans. The order also provides fundamental guidance to protect against spying on Americans, prohibitions against human experimentation and the long-standing ban on assassination.

Some officials familiar with Mr. McConnell's plans, speaking only on condition of anonymity because the deliberations remain internal, said his intent is solely to update the policy to reflect changes in the intelligence community since Sept. 11, 2001, including the creation of his own office. But other officials, who also spoke on condition they not be identified, said opening the order to changes could lead well beyond that. They said the exercise could threaten civil liberties protections approved by President Ronald Reagan following intelligence abuses in the 1970s, and that intelligence agencies will be tempted to expand their powers.

The effort to redo the executive order comes as McConnell has been pushing a skeptical Democratic Congress to overhaul a landmark law that provides the rules of the road for foreign intelligence investigations on U.S. soil, known as the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. Lawmakers have demanded more information about government surveillance before they act, but the administration has thus far been unwilling to respond to all of their requests.

Unlike the surveillance law, the White House can change an executive order without congressional or judicial approval.

"It is sort of the basic rule book for running the intelligence community, specifying who is part of it and what their roles are," said Jeffrey Richelson, a senior fellow with the National Security Archive and an expert on presidential intelligence directives. "It is certainly outdated in that ... you have elements of the intelligence community that weren't in it when this thing was written." For instance, the order does not discuss the powers of the national intelligence director, created by Congress in late 2004 to oversee all U.S. spy agencies in response to the intelligence failures of Sept. 11 and prewar Iraq. Instead, the order directs intelligence agencies to respond to requests from the CIA director, who headed the intelligence community for decades before the creation of McConnell's office. [Lc/Shrader/AP/12June2007]

Canadian Spy Watchdog Says "Troublesome" Legal Hurdle Hampers His Work. In his first report to Parliament, Charles Gonthier, the watchdog over Canada's secret eavesdropping agency, lamented his office is still not getting the information it needs to be sure the Communications Security Establishment is obeying the rules. At issue is the information the clandestine spy outfit provides when seeking ministerial permission for sensitive operations. The stumbling block raises questions about whether Gonthier, a former Supreme Court justice who serves as CSE commissioner, can provide full assurances the CSE is respecting the privacy of Canadians. 

The Ottawa-based CSE, a low-profile wing of the Defence Department, monitors foreign radio, telephone, fax, satellite and computer traffic for information of interest to Canada. The intelligence is used in support of Canadian crime-fighting, defense and trade policies. Military listening posts assist the agency's efforts to intercept the communications of foreign states and organizations, as well as the phone calls and messages of suspected terrorists, drug traffickers and smugglers. 

The CSE has long been prohibited from directing its surveillance at Canadians or anybody in Canada. However, the Anti-Terrorism Act of 2001 gave the CSE authority to tap into the conversations and messages of Canadians. [Bronskill/CanadianPress/12June2007] 

CIA Recruits Sudanese to Infiltrate Arab Jihadi Groups. The CIA, faced with the impossibility of infiltrating white Americans into radical groups in the Middle East, is recruiting Arab-speaking Sudanese citizens as sources to gather information. Sudanese sources are providing information on suspicious individuals passing through Sudan to Iraq. The use of Sudanese sources to gather information is receiving criticism from groups who say it violates sanctions against Sudan because of killings in Darfur.

US officials defend the practice. One ex-CIA official said, "There's not much that blond-haired, blue-eyed officers from the United States can do in the entire Middle East, and there's nothing they can do in Iraq. Sudanese can go places we don't go. They're Arabs." [pjk/Guardian/11June2007] 

Israel Launches Spy Satellite. Israel launched an advanced spy satellite into orbit on 11 June, giving it a sophisticated new tool in its efforts to collect intelligence on archenemy Iran and other regional adversaries. Israeli space officials say the Ofek-7 satellite can pick up even small objects from space, and will significantly improve Israel's intelligence capabilities. Israeli officials promised to share that information with U.S. Senior officials. 

Israel considers Iran its main strategic threat, because it believes Iran's nuclear program is designed to build atomic weapons. Moreover, Israel views repeated statements by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that Israel should be "wiped off the map" as a direct threat. Iran insists its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. [pjk/ls/WinnepegSun/12June2007]

DEA Arrests International Arms Dealer with Terrorist Ties. DEA Administrator Karen P. Tandy and the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Michael J. Garcia, announced the arrest of Monzer al Kassar, a/k/a "Abu Munawar," a/k/a "El Taous," an international arms dealer charged with conspiring to sell millions of dollars worth of weapons to the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). FARC, a designated foreign terrorist organization, reportedly was planning to use the weapons to kill Americans in Colombia. Kassar, along with co-defendants Tareq Mousa al Ghazi and Luis Felipe Moreno-Godoy were arrested on June 11 as they prepared to finalize the multimillion-dollar transaction to pay for the weapons. Kassar was arrested on the U.S. charges by Spanish authorities in Madrid and Ghazi and Moreno-Godoy were arrested in Romania.  [pjk/usdoj/12June2007]

US Bans Four Iran Firms Over WMD Role. The US Treasury said on 8 June 2007 that it has designated four more Iranian companies as proliferators of weapons of mass destruction, a move that bans US firms from dealing with them and freezes any assets they may have under US jurisdiction. The Treasury department said in a statement

that the four companies are owned, controlled by or act on behalf of companies and entities previously blacklisted by the Bush administration over Iran's nuclear program and missile development efforts.

Two of the firms banned in yesterday's announcement, Pars Tarash and Farayand Technique, are "owned or controlled by or act or purport to act for on behalf of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran," or AEOI, the Treasury said. It added that AEOI is the main Iranian institute for nuclear research and development activities, including centrifuge and laser enrichment of uranium. The other two firms, Fajr Industries

Group and Mizan Machine Manufacturing Group, are linked to the Aerospace Industries Organization, an Iranian Ministry of Defense subsidiary that the Treasury said controls and manages Iran's missile programs. The Treasury said Fajr has procured missile guidance and control equipment, including high-strength steel alloys, while in 2005, Mizan Machine purchased a state-of-the art crane capable of supporting missiles.

The actions were taken under an executive order that allows the Bush administration to ban transactions with proliferators of weapons of mass destruction, and a top Treasury official said more such designations were likely. [ThePeninsula/9June2007]

Boeing to Staff FBI Fusion Center. To advance information sharing against terrorism, Boeing Co. expects to be among the first major corporations to assign its own analyst to the Seattle FBI Fusion Center intelligence sharing office. The center is one of dozens around the country created by state and local governments to share anti-terrorism intelligence. Boeing wants to set an example of how private owners of critical infrastructure can get involved in such centers to generate and receive criminal and anti-terrorism intelligence, said Richard Hovel, Boeing senior advisor on aviation and homeland security. Mr. Hovel said Boeing and the fusion centers have similar goals. The private sector, which owns about 80 percent of critical infrastructure, needs to have real-time access to information from the fusion centers. At the same time, the fusion centers need access to "mature intelligence capabilities" in private companies, Hovel said.

Some information sharing already is underway. The Pacific Northwest Economic Region Center for Regional Disaster Resilience has formed a Northwest Warning and Response Network to communicate information about all hazards and all threats between the FBI and private sector companies in Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington.

However, there are obstacles in the path of greater collaboration between public and private sectors in existing law enforcement fusion centers. Private sector participation has been limited by the way that the fusion centers are organized under a federally-centered vision and also by limited funding. In practice, for example, federal security clearances for most anti-terrorism information are difficult for local police officers to obtain, and procedures for obtaining access to federal information and support are often "convoluted and tortuous." [Jm/WashingtonTechnology/Lipowcz/1June2007]


Anniversary of Guatemala CoupThis June is the 53rd anniversary of the US-backed coup in Guatemala that replaced Jacobo Arbenz with Carlos Castillo Armas. The Center for the Study of Intelligence has an interesting article concerning the operation and the roles of the CIA, Congress, and the Executive by David M. Barrett at . Following is an excerpt from the article:

One of the paradoxes of legislative oversight of intelligence in the early Cold War period was that the United States Congress could give strong, if de facto, support of aggressive covert action while, with the exception of a few leaders, not really knowing which such policies were being carried out. Guatemala is a perfect example. Following its 1944 revolution, which brought democratically elected leftist governments to power, this Central American government faced an increasingly hostile neighbor to the north, the United States. Guatemala's treatment of US-based corporations, especially the United Fruit Company, in expropriating land and other assets, did nothing to improve relations. Elites in Guatemala helped persuade US journalists and members of Congress, not to mention the executive branch, that their government was veering further and further leftward toward Communism in the early 1950s.

Late in the Truman presidency, the US government aborted an attempt to support Guatemalans who aimed to overthrow President Jacobo Arbenz. Those at CIA Headquarters who were involved in the effort felt "grimly" about that "horrifying" turn of events, one Agency leader noted in his diary. But, not surprisingly, new administration leaders - President Dwight Eisenhower, Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, and DCI Allen Dulles - also persuaded themselves that the Guatemalan government was "red." The CIA leader had help form the Board of National Estimates, which informed him on 22 April 1954 that "The Communists now effectively control the political life of Guatemala." A deal made by Arbenz's government to purchase Soviet-made armaments from Czechoslovakia that spring only sealed the matter in the American leaders' minds.

What unfolded in May and June of 1954 is now a familiar story in US intelligence and diplomatic history: Washington used the CIA and US Ambassador John Peurifoy to support and direct certain Guatemalan military leaders in overthrowing Arbenz's government. It was also psychological warfare - cleverly deceptive efforts to persuade Guatemala's citizens and political/military leaders that a major invasion force was steadily moving toward the nation's capital so unnerved Arbenz and others that the government fell without much of a battle. 

The story has been told most notably by historian Richard Immerman, who carefully analyzes the American and Guatemalan political environments. While the overthrow of Arbenz was unfolding, the US government pretended to have nothing to do with it. In the year or so after President Castillo Armas's anti-Communist government was brought into power with Agency assistance, CIA quietly judged that his government was "inept," despite his "virtually dictatorial powers," and that there were growing "public demands for a return to constitutional democracy." Still, while American news reports and Congressional debates began to acknowledge that the United States had been involved, the overthrow became one of CIA's "well-known successes." This was the analysis of a Washington Evening Star article in early 1956, for example. Even critics of CIA in the 1950s and 1960s were reluctant to challenge that interpretation of events. 

In the late Cold War period and since, however, the American overthrow of the Arbenz government came to be widely seen as shameful. This is mostly because the governments that followed the 1954 coup in the subsequent five decades were far more repressive than Arbenz's elective government. Even intelligence scholar Christopher Andrew, an Eisenhower admirer, describes the Guatemala affair as a "disreputable moment" - Eisenhower was "directly responsible" for "death and destruction," yet showed no signs of embarrassment then or later over his "bullying of a banana republic." A culminating moment in the evolving historical memory of the United States and Guatemala in 1954 came in 1999, when President Clinton visited Guatemala and said, "Support for military forces and intelligence units which engaged in violence and widespread repression was wrong, and the United States must not repeat that mistake."

Aside from morality, there were other unfortunate legacies of the Guatemalan "success:" Allen Dulles used it as a model in advising President Kennedy seven years later to pursue the ill-fated Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba. Also, since the early Eisenhower-Dulles period, the CIA has had a vastly exaggerated reputation worldwide for causing all sorts of havoc. [Barrett/CIA]


Interesting Sites

TED Conference. AFIO member CW forwarded a note from Commander Thomas on the DigitalGlobe presentation of the capabilities and potential applications of commercial satellite imagery from QuickBird and WorldView 1 and 2. Commander Thomas said, "for your viewing pleasure, I offer the presentation at the link of ridiculously cool technology demonstrated at the TED* conference that shows some amazing manipulation of various images with zoom and navigation features that outstrip all expectation. The video is seven minutes, but I believe it is worth your time. Enjoy."

Book Reviews

Gatekeeper: Memoirs of a CIA Polygraph Examiner, by John F. Sullivan. John Sullivan's job was ferreting out liars. During a 31-year career as a ''gatekeeper'' for the Central Intelligence Agency, he hooked up a record 6,000-plus potential liars to polygraph machines in 40 countries. Gatekeeper is his story, and it's fascinating and troubling. 

Sullivan opens bare the controversy, including within the Agency itself, over the validity of the polygraph, which Sullivan staunchly defends, but as ''an art, not a science.'' What's disturbing is that the book exposes the CIA as just another big organization replete with turf wars, petty personal jealousies, incompetents, bad bosses and just plain ''bad apples.'' One wonders how its internal squabbles might have affected the Agency's overall performance, particularly regarding the 9/11 attacks and the faulty intelligence that led to the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq. 

While the subject may be esoteric for general readers, Gatekeeper sheds considerable light on aspects of what was - and remains - one of the most secretive and controversial U.S. government organizations. Despite a glossary, the book would have been better if Sullivan had avoided some 75 or so acronyms. 

Still, the insider analysis is intriguing. Sullivan, who left the Agency in 1999, believes a three-decade decline for the CIA ''of prestige and capacity to provide good intelligence'' began in 1973 when then-President Nixon pressured Richard Helms to resign as CIA director. "The post-Helms CIA has been characterized by escalating politicization, internal and external turf wars and a steadily growing bureaucracy, all of which diminished the Agency's capacity to carry out its mission.'' 

Sullivan's interesting account of the Agency's early years also reflects the country's post-World War II atmosphere in the wake of the anti-Communist, anti-gay witch hunt by the late Sen. Joe McCarthy of Wisconsin. At that time, he writes, "the CIA's polygraph program focused on detecting Communists and homosexuals. Early tests had more questions dealing with Communism than any other issue, but the homosexuality issue was pursued equally vigorously.'' 

Among the turf wars within the CIA in which Sullivan became entangled was one battle with the Cuban Operations Group, due ''in large part because none of its [Cuban] agents could pass their polygraph tests.'' The group's chief complained to the examiners that not all ''our agents can be bad'' and ''you are doing bad tests.'' Unfortunately, writes Sullivan, the "Cuban [exile] assets, with rare exceptions, were all bad.'' 

Sullivan concedes there are ''many questions about the validity and reliability of polygraph'' and concludes that "polygraph is much more effective in determining that a person is being deceptive than it is in verifying that a person has been or is being honest.'' 

Don Bohning is a former Miami Herald Latin America Editor and author of The Castro Obsession: U.S. Covert Operations Against Cuba 1959-1965.

Book Review Rebuttal, Scorpion Down.  On 8 June 2007, Mr. Bruce Rule wrote a rebuttal to Mr. Bill Gertz of the Washington Times concerning his book review on Scorion Down by Ed Offley.  AFIO member JM describes Mr. Rule as "an iconic acoustic analyst at the old NISC during the cold war who trained and mentored an entire generation of ACTINT analysts and riders."  Following is Mr. Rule's letter:

Bill Gertz:

The SOSUS (SOund SUrveillance System) passive acoustic detection of "an underwater dogfight" between the USS SCORPION and a Soviet submarine "that ended when the Soviet torpedoed the American sub" Mentioned in your 1 June 2007 Washington Times review of Ed Offley's book SCORPION DOWN, and central to his conspiracy theory, is a total fabrication. It never happened.

Had such a detection event occurred, it would have been reported in real time to (1) Commander, Oceanographic Systems, Atlantic (COSL), (2) Commander, Antisubmarine Warfare Forces, Atlantic, (3) Commander in Chief, US Atlantic Fleet and (4) the Chief of Naval Operations, and could hardly have eluded Offley's hypothesized search and seizure effort by the US Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI).

Since I was head of the Branch within ONI responsible for the analysis and final evaluation of all SOSUS data of interest from 1963 through 1992, I would have directed any such search and seizure effort, and I did not.  Further, I can state the following with absolute assurance:

  - ONI never received any SOSUS data on the SCORPION event.

  - As discussed in "USS SCORPION SSN-589 - Court of Inquiry

Findings," essentially all explosive/implosive acoustic events associated with the loss of SCORPION by position correlation with the wreckage were detected by Canary  Island hydrophone sensors operated by the Air Force Technical Analysis Center.  That activity provided the analysis cited by the Board of Inquiry.  ONI was never involved

 - The only SOSUS detections of these acoustic events (weaker than the Canary  Island detections because of the greater range) were made by the station at Argentia. Newfoundland.  The Argentia detections were associated with SCORPION only after the position and time of origin of the loss events were determined from the Canary Island data.

 - There were no SOSUS detections of acoustic signatures from SCORPION, any Soviet submarine or any torpedo either before, during or after the loss event.

While the precise cause of the SCORPION disaster could not be determined from the acoustic data, the conclusion by the Board of Inquiry that "there is no evidence that the loss of SCORPION was the result of an unfriendly act" remains unrebutted.

Sadly, Ed Offley's book belongs on the same shelf as "The Monuments of Mars" and other such efforts written to profit from titillating the uninformed public with another conspiracy theory.

What remains perplexing is how two former SOSUS system personnel could have become involved in this fabrication.

The most parsimonious explanation is that Offley, with the conspiracy theory already well formed in his mind, found an analytical inexperienced student and a gullible instructor willing to provide bona fides for the student. Offley then failed to interview personnel who had been at COSL, the SOSUS Evaluation  Center, in 1968, and who had a total of hundreds of years of experience with submarine detection events and torpedo detection documentation.  Uniformly, these personnel would have told Offley what he apparently did not want to hear: there was no such detection event.

Offley failed to remember the late Carl Sagan's dictum: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence."

Bruce Rule


John R. Horton, CIA Senior Executive, AFIO Member, Author.  John Ryder Horton, 86, a CIA senior executive in the directorate of operations who became chief of the Soviet bloc division, died June 3 at Asbury-Solomons Island continuing care center in Solomons, Md. He had bladder cancer.

Mr. Horton joined the CIA in 1948 and was chief of station in Hong Kong, Uruguay and Mexico. He was in Mexico during the 1968 student riots.  Mr. Horton was chief of the Western Hemisphere division before retiring in 1975 as chief of the Soviet bloc division, covering the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact nations. He received the CIA's Distinguished Intelligence Medal.

Mr. Horton briefly emerged from retirement in 1983 to serve as national intelligence officer for Central and Latin America. He resigned after a dispute with CIA Director William J. Casey over what Mr. Horton considered political pressure to radically rewrite intelligence analysis of Mexico.

Mr. Horton was a Chicago native and attended Indiana University before joining the Navy in 1940. He received a master's degree in international relations from the University of Chicago in 1948 and was elected to Phi Beta Kappa.

He had served in the Pacific during World War II, eventually being assigned to assist Chinese guerrilla troops. This became the subject of his 1994 memoir, "Ninety-Day Wonder."  His wartime decorations included the Bronze Star with Combat V.

In retirement, he wrote three espionage novels and started a small vineyard on his property in Hollywood, in Southern Maryland. He also started a tree farm and became involved in environmental conservation, including pressuring St. Mary's County and the state to preserve 2,000 acres of land near the St. Mary's River. He received a Sierra Club award for his efforts.

He was a former board member of the Three Oaks homeless shelter in Lexington Park.

Survivors include his wife of 60 years, Grace Calhoun Horton of Solomons; four children, Andrew M. Horton of Falmouth, Maine, Mary H. Welch of Washington, David R. Horton of Burlington, Vt., and Jane B. Horton of Atlanta; a sister; and seven grandchildren.  [Berenstein/WashingtonPost/8June2007]

James G. McCargar, Author, Spy. James G. McCargar, 86, an author, diplomat and spy died of cancer May 30 at the Washington Home hospice.

Mr. McCargar was born in San Francisco and graduated from Stanford University with a degree in Russian language and civilization. After a brief newspaper career, he joined the Foreign Service in 1942. Mr. McCargar was assigned to the Navy, where he served as a foreign liaison officer in Alaska during much of World War II. In 1946, he became chief of the political section of the embassy in Budapest, with the covert assignment to take over a secret intelligence network. As the communists tightened their grip on Hungary, he set up an escape route that saved more than 60 political and scientific figures and their families.

Mr. McCargar wrote the well-received "A Short Course in the Secret War" under the pseudonym Christopher Felix and under his own name in later editions. It was one of the first books to authoritatively discuss U.S. covert operations, and it remains in print more than 40 years later. He also co-wrote a spy thriller, "The Three-Cornered Cover" (1972), and former CIA director William E. Colby's memoir of Vietnam, "Lost Victory" (1989). He was also ghostwriter for "Men of Responsibility," the 1965 memoirs of Dirk U. Stikker, former secretary-general of NATO.

Mr. McCargar worked in Moscow, Genoa, Italy, Washington, New York and Paris. He moved to the Free Europe Committee in 1955 and co-founded Americans Abroad for Kennedy. He became a freelance writer in 1961.

By 1978, he returned to government work as special assistant for international relations to the chairman of the National Endowment for the Humanities. After 1983, he became a consultant. He was a member of the board of Americans for UNESCO from 1985 until 2005, when the United States rejoined the U.N. agency. He was a member of the Cosmos Club, Diplomatic and Consular Officers, Retired (DACOR), the OSS Society and the Author's Guild.

Survivors include his wife, Emanuela Butculescu of Washington, and a sister.

Coming Events

19 June 2007 - Arlington, VA - Defense Intelligence Forum luncheon at the Alpine Restaurant, 4770 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA (The Alpine has two parking lots. One is next to the building. The other is across the street.) Speaker will be Mr. Russell Rochte on "From Soft-Power to Soft-War" - presenting lessons learned from his experience on the Media Staff Ride to Hollywood conducted by the National Defense University in 2005. The talk will include a brief review of "media warfare" and suggest a strategy for ultimately winning the "War of Ideas." Rochte, Sr Faculty for Information Operations at the National Defense Intelligence College, was formerly on the NDU faculty. He is a frequent lecturer at the NATO School on the topic of Information Power and directs the Information Operations concentration within the MSSI degree program at the NDIC. The Defense Intelligence Forum covers topics of current intelligence interest. The Defense Intelligence Alumni Association and the National Defense Intelligence College Foundation sponsor it jointly. To encourage candor, the forum does not allow media, notes, recordings, or attribution. The Defense Intelligence Forum is open to members of Intelligence Community associations.
RSVP by 13 June by reply email or telephone DIAA at 571-426-0098. Give your name and the names of your guests, your association, your telephone number and email address, and menu selections (chicken, veal, or salmon). Pay at the door with a check for $25 made payable to DIAA, Inc.

24 June 2007 - St. Charles, IL - The Midwest Chapter of AFIO meets at the St. Charles Place restaurant (2550 E. Main St). They will have a guest speaker discussing a timely and hot topic. Registration $10 and dinner runs $16 - $26. Contact Angelo DiLiberti for further details. 847-931-4184. Reply no later than June 18th.

25 June 2007 - Scottsdale, AZ - The Arizona AFIO Chapter hears from Dr. Rustick on Special Weapons for Special Forces. The Chapter meeting will be at Buster's restaurant in Scottsdale at a luncheon beginning at 11:30 AM. The speaker will be Dr. Joseph Rustick, President of Arms Tech Ltd. This company manufactures special weapons designed to support the missions of Special Forces and Law Enforcement in general. The product line is diverse and designed to provide Special Operations with the unique tools required for the hostile environment in which they operate. One of the interesting products is the Compac 16 family of weapons which are designed to expand the life, accuracy, and reliability of the M-16. He is a Medical Doctor. He received his Medical Degree from Georgetown School of Medicine in 1974. For information and reservations, phone Bill Williams at (602) 944-2451 or e-mail,

28 June 2007 - San Francisco - The AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter hosts Brigadier General Joseph L. Shaefer, USAF (Ret). Shaefer will speak on "Up a Lazy River: The Right Time, The Wrong ABC's." If we are living in a time where the national ABC's include (A) ambivalence about the collection of intelligence, increasing (B) boredom with the subject of national security, the end goal of almost all national intelligence, and a (C) complacency about those who have declared themselves our sworn enemies, then our intelligence gathering, analysis, and dissemination will reflect them. General Shaefer offers a different set of ABC's and provides a strategy to once again energize and involve the American public in order to allow intelligence professionals to do what they do best: provide predictive and prescriptive courses of action to protect American citizens and ensure the continuation of our way of life. The meeting will be held at United Irish Cultural Center, 2700 45th Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94116 (between Sloat and Wawona). 11:30 AM no host cocktails; noon - luncheon. $25 member rate with advance reservation; $35 non-member rate or at door. RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi no later than 5 PM 6/20/07:, (650) 622-9840 X608 or send check to P.O. Box 117578 Burlingame, CA 94011. Call Marina Mann (925) 735-1327 for questions.

Thursday, 28 June 2007, 12 Noon - 1 PM - Washington, DC - Spy Wars: Moles, Mysteries, and Deadly Games. The mysterious case of KGB officer Yuri Nosenko's 1964 defection to the United States has inspired debate for more than 40 years. Was Nosenko a bona fide defector with real information about Lee Harvey Oswald's stay in Soviet Russia? Or was he a KGB loyalist, engaged in a complex game of deception? Tennent H. Bagley, a former CIA chief of Soviet bloc counterintelligence, directly handled Nosenko's case and after the Cold War learned more from former KGB adversaries.
His book Spy Wars: Moles, Mysteries, and Deadly Games shines new light on this notorious case and shatters the comfortable version of events the CIA has presented to the public. Join him for a reevaluation of the CIA-KGB conflict, its role in the history of espionage, and its implications for the intelligence community today. Tickets: Free. No registration required. Location: International Spy Museum, 800 F St NW. Take Gallery Place/Chinatown Metro Station.

Friday, 29 June 2007 - Houston, TX - AFIO Houston Chapter event  The speaker for this AFIO Houston event is being scheduled. Announced later. Registration and further details at  1800h 6pm Cocktails. No tickets at the door.

30 June 2007 - Nashua, NH - CIRA New England Chapter holds special New England meeting. Calling all New England CIA Retirees. This special event will be held at the Holiday Inn, Nashua, NH [Rt 3, Exit 4]. For further info contact Dick Gay 207-374-2169 or email him at 

Wednesday, July 11, 2007: 9:00 am - Noon - Alexandria, VA - Ray Semko, aka the one and only "D*I*C*E Man", presents D*I*C*E 2007: UNLEASHED! at the CI Centre and other locations. Hear what Ray has to say about security, OPSEC, INFOSEC and terrorism now that he's no longer in the US government! These special open "Up Close and Personal" D*I*C*E briefings at the CI Centre are tailored towards those organizations operating under a requirement to provide a security awareness briefing to their employees every year (as NISPOM requires). Attendees will receive a Certificate of Attendance stating they have completed their security awareness briefing for the year. Seating is limited in the CI Centre's classroom, so register early to reserve your seat. Cost is $99.95 per person. Free parking. Coffee and Krispy Kreme donuts provided. REGISTER NOW: You may download the Registration Form from: or call 1-800-779-4007.

19 July 2007 - Colorado Springs, CO - AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter holds luncheon meeting on MASINT at the Falcon Room, Air Force Academy Officers Club. MASINT is the topic at the luncheon meeting of the at AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter. Event is held at the Falcon Room, Air Force Academy Officers Club. Col. John Gonzales, USAF will speak to on MASINT which is a new and little known part of intelligence. Cost $10.00 for each lunch buffet. Inquiries to Dick Durham. Treasurer of the Chapter at

 20 - 21 July 2007 - Northampton, MA - AFIO New England holds their summer weekend event at the Hotel Northampton, Northampton, Massachusetts. A full description of services as well as directions to the hotel, are available on-line at Please mention AFIO/NE when making reservations. The student speaker will be David Lim. Their main speaker will be Jeff Beaty, former member of the Delta Force, the CIA & the FBI. The program will begin with a Friday evening complimentary wine and cheese social at the Hotel Northampton starting at 6:00 PM. This get-together is a wonderful opportunity to renew friendships, as well as make new ones in a relaxed informal setting. We anticipate that our speakers will join us at the social. This may be followed by a no-host dinner at local area restaurants. Our Saturday schedule is as follows 9:00 - 10:45 a.m. Meeting Registration, 11:00 - 11:20 a.m. First Speaker, 12:00 - 1:15 p.m. Luncheon, 1:15 - 2:15 p.m. Keynote Speaker, 2:30 p.m. Adjournment. For additional information contact

 4 August 2007 - Melbourne, FL - AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter meets at the Indian River Colony Club  The Chapter August luncheon will be held at the Indian River Colony Club (IRCC). A cash bar will open at 1130 hours and lunch will begin at 1230 hours. Speaker details and reservation information is forthcoming. For additional information please contact George Stephenson, Chapter Vice President at and title your email: AFIO August Meeting

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Going once.....going twice.....
Wait. Don't let it... without having a look, yourself. The AFIO Auction continues with many great gifts for Dads and Grads.
Fun just to browse.
Allen Dulles' Pipe, inscribed photo, and letter of provenance....special OSS and CIA keyrings, or enjoy a private dinner in Washington DC area with AFIO's President - CIA officer [Ret] to discuss career plans, goals, or to hear about historic intelligence events including MAJIC, Area 51, and other U.S. intelligence mysteries.....just some of the many unusual items available to you
at the


Allen Dulles' Pipe, inscribed photo, and letter of provenance....or enjoy a private dinner in Washington DC area with AFIO's President - CIA officer [Ret] to discuss career plans, goals, or to hear about historic intelligence events including MAJIC, Area 51, and other U.S. intelligence mysteries.....just some of the many unusual items available to you
at the


Own a piece of history.

 Our Spring AFIO Spy Auction is here! The AFIO 2007 Auction opens for bidding on Sunday, 29 April 2007.

Goal: to raise funds to support AFIO programs in the areas of education, career recruitments, scholarships, seminars, publications, and conferences.
Please help by reviewing and purchasing gift items at this auction. Part of each purchase includes a tax-deductible donation to AFIO.
Tell colleagues and friends that the bidding has started.
This is an exciting and fun way to locate some unusual gift items and to help an important cause.

Explore the auction catalog at

Other Ways to Help:
Donate intel-related items; Be a Sponsor.
Contact us at  or 703-790-0320 to take advantage of promotional opportunities for your business or to pledge your individual support.


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