AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #34-07 dated 4 September 2007

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28 September 2007 - AFIO National Fall Luncheon - Holiday Inn, Tysons Corner
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Joel F. Brenner, head of the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive (ONCIX)
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John F. Sullivan,
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US Poised to Strike Iran, According to CIA Contacts. Bob Baer, the former Middle East CIA operative whose first book about his life inspired the oil-and-espionage thriller Syriana, is working on a new book on Iran, but says he was told by senior intelligence officials that he had better get it published in the next couple of months because things could be about to change. Baer, in an interview with The Weekend Australian, says his contacts in the administration suggest a strategic airstrike on Iran is a real possibility in the months ahead. 

"What I'm getting is a sense that their sentiment is they are going to hit the Iranians and not just because of Israel, but due to the fact that Iran is the predominant power in the Gulf and it is hostile and its power is creeping into the Gulf at every level," Baer says. 

Washington's intelligence community is abuzz about possible military action against Iran, which is being weighed at the highest levels of the Bush administration. While the guessing game has become "will they or won't they?", at least some experienced and trusted intelligence sources have told The Weekend Australian that the possibility of a strike in the next 12 months remains remote. 

"The success of a strike is limited and the downside could be enormous," said one source, noting the possibility of a regional conflagration involving the entire Gulf because Iran would look to hit back at the US's strategic interests. 

For his part, Baer is not an advocate of a demonstration strike on Tehran and he is scathing of the Bush administration's handling of Middle East policy, as he is of previous administrations, marking 1979, under the Carter administration, as the point in which US policy on Iran went awry. He agrees with many in the intelligence community in Washington that a strike on Iran could be a disaster and counterproductive to US interests, but he says the rising level of impatience in the Bush administration over Iran's belligerence on its nuclear program and its destabilizing role in Iraq could mean something snaps. 

Intelligence sources say military contingency planning on Iran under the Bush administration has been under way since 2003 but the latest speculation has been a surgical strike on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. A case for a strike became more prominent last week when The New York Times reported the Bush administration was preparing to declare the Revolutionary Guard Corps a foreign terrorist organization. 

"If imposed, the declaration would signal a more confrontational turn in the administration's approach to Iran and would be the first time that the United States has added the armed forces of any sovereign government to its list of terrorist organizations," the Times reported. 

The Revolutionary Guard is said to be the largest branch of Iran's military. [Elliot/TheAustralian/25August] 

Korean Spy Agency Leads Talks with Taliban. Kim Man-bok, director of the Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS), led negotiations with the Taliban over the release of the captives in Afghanistan. The spy chief's public appearance in Kabul surprised many Koreans, stirring controversy. Kim was captured on the cameras of several television networks at a Kabul hotel where the freed hostages stayed before returning home. 

Critics say it was inappropriate for the NIS chief to appear in public given any activities of the spy agency are required to be conducted in secrecy and the other party involved in the hostage negotiations was the Taliban, which the international community sees as a terrorist group. Others claim Kim intentionally appeared in public to support his run for a seat in the National Assembly elections next year.

The spy chief denied reports that the Taliban had agreed to free the 19 Korean hostages in return for a huge amount of ransom. Sung-ki/Koreatimes/25August2007]

Airman Charged with Selling Military Gear. A U.S. Air Force staff sergeant and his mother face federal charges that they stole high-grade equipment used on military helicopters and sold it overseas over the Internet.

Leonard Allen Schenk, who was assigned to the 20th Special Operations Squadron at Hurlburt Field near Mary Esther, also is charged with trying to hire an undercover agent to kill a possible prosecution witness, not publicly identified, sometime between May and June.

Schenk worked as a life-support technician, building and maintaining aviation night-vision goggles, flight helmets and global-positioning equipment for the squadron's helicopter fleet, according to the indictment.

Consumer Innovations To Inform Web Site For Spies. Government agents may soon find valuable information through an online-recommendation system like the one on Spies who read this report, it might say, also found these reports useful.

That is one of several features the Office of the Director of National Intelligence might borrow from mainstream technology as it designs its new Web-based information-sharing system. The DNI is working on a new system intended to "tunnel through" the 16 different intelligence-gathering agencies in hopes of streamlining data sharing, said Michael Wertheimer, DNI's assistant deputy director for analytic transformation and technology.

The system, called A-Space, will only be open to those cleared to use it and is scheduled to go live in December. The DNI said it was taking its cues from social networking sites, Web-based mail, online maps and other commonly used online tools. Next month, it will take its concepts to a conference in Chicago, where universities, tech companies and other government agencies will be invited to scrutinize the project.

A-Space, which will cost about $5 million to design, will operate like a password-protected corporate intranet, where companies post important documents, after-hours contact information or special skills of certain employees. Moving such information online would allow employees to access it from anywhere they can find a Internet-connected computer, whether that's at home or at a coffee shop - similar to the way someone might access their free Yahoo, Hotmail or Gmail account. 

The government acknowledged that there are legitimate concerns about such an undertaking, including the risk of hackers and other security breaches, but Wertheimer said the DNI is soliciting input on those problems.

"Obviously, security is a huge concern, and it's a valid concern that has to be addressed," said Teresa Smetzer, chief executive of Jasmah Consulting, an intelligence consulting firm in Reston. "It's very important, but there are ways to constructively address those challenges."

Smetzer, who said she worked as a Central Intelligence Agency analyst for 17 years, said in designing A-Space, the government is trying to become more efficient and responsive, just as businesses use technology to adapt quickly to changing trends.

Traditional information-sharing involved a lot of phone calls to find expertise in a specific field, she said. Now businesses are increasingly using networking tools such as LinkedIn and Facebook to identify those people with the click of a mouse.

One feature of the proposed government system will include a Web-based library that can sift through similar reports and use a recommendation system similar to those of Amazon, iTunes and other e-commerce sites, Wertheimer said.

Its system will also include tools to limit access according to users' security clearance, similar to the way MySpace uses privacy settings so users can choose who sees their profiles, he said. A-Space could also include programs that combine Google Maps with government data so intelligence agencies can chart, for example, the location of nuclear power plants or regions with recent epidemic outbreaks, he said.  

German Spyware Plans Trigger Row. German government plans to spy on terror suspects by deploying malicious e-mails have drawn sharp criticism. The e-mails would contain Trojans - software that secretly installs itself on suspects' computers, allowing agents to search the hard drives. German Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is quoted as saying the spyware would be used only in a few cases and for a limited time. The measure would form part of a new anti-terrorism bill. 

A spokeswoman for the opposition Free Democrats, Gisela Piltz, called the proposal a totally unacceptable intrusion into privacy. But a spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel said she supported the measure. According to German media reports, the malicious e-mails could appear to come from different official bodies. Justice Minister Brigitte Zypries, of the Social Democrats (SPD), has voiced concern about the spyware plans, saying they might infringe privacy laws, the Deutsche Welle news website reports. [BBC/31August2007] 

UK Police Increasingly Suspect Mossad Spy Murdered. Evidence brought by a new witness has increased British police's suspicions that an Egyptian spy for the Mossad did not fall to his death in June but was in fact murdered. London police are set to interview the witness, who claims to have seen two men on the balcony of Dr. Ashraf Marwan's apartment in the moments after he fell to his death. The body of Marwan, 62, who warned Israel ahead of the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, was found on the sidewalk near his apartment in London. 

The Times reported that the witness said the men, wearing suits and of Mediterranean appearance, peered over the balcony at his body before disappearing inside the apartment. 

London's Metropolitan police admitted, however, that Marwan's shoes - an essential piece of evidence - have disappeared and are feared to be destroyed. The shoes would have helped prove whether the Mossad agent had fallen off his balcony and had stepped on something before doing so, or was thrown off it by someone else. 

A well-to-do businessman, Marwan had lived in London since the late 1970s. He was married to the daughter of the late Egyptian President Gamal Abd Nasser, and former political and security adviser to President Sadat. [Melman/Haaretz/29August2007] 

FBI Spy Docs Show G-Men Don't Understand Security, Professor Says. Computer science professor Steven Bellovin - one of the most knowledgeable outsiders on the government's eavesdropping mandates known as CALEA, pored over recently released documents that outline the FBI's extensive eavesdropping architecture.

He concludes that they don't bode well for anyone:

"I don't think the FBI really understands computer security. More precisely, while parts of the organization seem to, the overall design of the DCS-3000 system shows that when it comes to building and operating secure systems, they just don't get it.

The most obvious example is the account management scheme described in the DCS-3000 documents: there are no unprivileged userids. In fact, there are no individual userids; rather, there are two privileged accounts. Each has different powers; however, as the documents themselves note, each can change the other's permissions to restore the missing abilities. Where is the per-user accountability? Why should ordinary users run in privileged mode at all? The answers are simple and dismaying.

Instead of personal userids, the FBI relies on log sheets. This may provide sufficient accountability if everyone follows the rules. It provides no protection against rule-breakers. It is worth noting that Robert Hanssen obtained much of the information he sold to the Soviets by exploiting weak permission mechanisms in the FBI's Automated Case System. The DCS-3000 system doesn't have proper password security mechanisms, either, which brings up another point: why does a high-security system use passwords at all? We've know for years how weak they are. Why not use smart cards for authentication? [Single/Wired/30August2007] 

New Chinese Spy Chief an Expert on Commercial Intelligence, Monitoring Group Says. China's new spy chief is an expert on commercial intelligence whose appointment signals a shift of emphasis to obtaining and protecting trade secrets, a monitoring group said Friday. Geng Huichang was promoted from vice minister to minister of state security on Thursday as part of a major Cabinet reshuffle ahead of a twice-a-decade Communist Party congress in October. The ministry has long been regarded as China's version of the former Soviet Union's infamous KGB. However, to allow it to focus more on commercial intelligence, some of its duties will now be shifted to the military or the Public Security Ministry, which is in charge of police, the Hong Kong-based Information Center for Human Rights and Democracy reported.

Experts in the United States and elsewhere say China may be appealing to businesspeople and academics of Chinese origin to gain classified information on new technology, especially with possible military applications. Little else is publicly known about Geng, 55. According to the center and Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao Daily News, Geng spent most of his career conducting research on international relations, authoring numerous articles and papers on American politics. He headed the government-backed China Institute of Contemporary International Relations until 1995, when he was reassigned overseas, the center said. A vice minister of state security since 1998, Geng delivered a lecture at the Commerce Ministry in February on techniques for protecting and obtaining commercial secrets, the center said. It said he also contributed to a 1993 book on international trade.

One of the few pieces of information available online about Geng is a Greek government account of his visit to that nation's Ministry of Public Order last year, for a briefing on Olympic security ahead of the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympic Games. Geng is also cited as explaining China's military modernization in a 1992 paper, saying it was mainly a response to events overseas such as the 1991 Gulf War, rather than a desire to assume greater international influence. [InternationalHeraldTribune/31August207] 

Macedonian Secret Files Stolen And Given to Bulgaria? According to a Macedonian newspaper, all the data about agents, plans, and operations of the Macedonian Security and Intelligence Agency have been stolen and given to Bulgaria. The newspaper reports that an analyst of the Security and Intelligence agency photocopied the information and delivered it to the Bulgarian state security service. The newspaper says the informer is also a grandson of the former minister of interior of Macedonia, Dosta Dimovska. []  

Russia: Academic Paper was Not Treason. The Russian Federal Security Service withdrew charges Monday against two scientists accused of espionage. In April, Oleg and Igor Minin, former scientists at the Siberian Institute of Applied Physics, were accused of revealing state secrets in a monograph they wrote about their research. But after investigation, Russia's Federal Security Service withdrew charges against the Minins saying "there was no sufficient evidence" they had given away sensitive information. [UPI/28August2007] 

Russian Governor Accuses Christian Missionaries of Spying, "Religious Expansion." The governor of Russia's Tula region accused Christian missionaries of spying for the United States, according to an August 28, 2007 article in the local newspaper Novotulsky Metallurg. Governor Vyacheslav Dudka made this accusation at a conference on inter-ethnic and inter-religious relations in the region. He singled out Mormons and Jehovah's Witnesses as part of a religious expansion into Russia, stimulated by "foreign intelligence agencies." Union of Councils for Jews in the former Soviet Union is quoted on its online site Dudka as saying the following: "An agent of the USA's military intelligence is on the staff of one of these religious groups." [AxisGlobe/28August2007] 

Sudan Accuses Expelled US Aid Agency Chief of Espionage. Sudanese authorities accused the head of CARE International's operations in Sudan of "espionage activities" during his tenure. An unidentified Sudanese official speaking to Al-Sahafa daily said that Paul Barker was under surveillance by security services "for quite some time." Barker was expelled Monday after a year of directing one of the biggest private aid efforts in the Darfur region. An official from Sudan's ministry of Humanitarian affairs visited Barker on Saturday and notified him that his work permit renewal request was denied by the highest level of government.

The Sudanese official speaking to Al-Sahafa said that Barker was "fabricating reports on the security situation in Darfur". "His expulsion decision is final and irreversible" he added. [Ali/SudanTribune/28August2007] 

Democratic Republic of Congo Intelligence Agency Questions Four TV Executives. The National Intelligence Agency (ANR) detained and questioned four senior executives from two TV stations, Canal Congo T�l�vision (CCTV) and Business Radio T�l�vision (BRTV), in Kinshasa on 26 August about their decision to broadcast a 2006 interview with dissident general Laurent Nkunda Batware. At the same time, BRTV's broadcast signal was interrupted on 26 August without any explanation. The ANR told the four journalists - CCTV director general St�phane Kitutu O'Leontwa (who also heads Radio Libert� Kinshasa), BRTV director general Thierry Musenepo, BRTV production director Christophe Ali and BRTV producer Tutu Kazadi - to "remain available for any additional questioning." [ReportersWithoutBorders/28August2007]


The Making of a Neo-KGB State. On the evening of August 22nd 1991 � 16 years ago this week � a coup against Mikhail Gorbachev had been defeated and the head of the KGB who had helped to orchestrate it had been arrested. A jubilant crowd attacked the statue of Felix Dzerzhinsky, the KGB's founding father. A couple of men climbed up and slipped a rope round his neck. Then he was yanked up by a crane. Watching "Iron Felix" sway in mid-air, many KGB employees members watching the scene.

Those feelings of betrayal and humiliation were shared by 500,000 KGB operatives across Russia and beyond, including Vladimir Putin, whose resignation as a lieutenant-colonel in the service had been accepted only the day before. Eight years later, though, the KGB men seemed poised for revenge. Just before he became president, Mr. Putin told his ex-colleagues at the Federal Security Service (FSB), the KGB's successor, "A group of FSB operatives, dispatched under cover to work in the government of the Russian federation, is successfully fulfilling its task." He was only half joking.

Over the two terms of Mr. Putin's presidency, that "group of FSB operatives" has consolidated its political power and built a new sort of corporate state in the process. Men from the FSB and its sister organizations control the Kremlin, the government, the media and large parts of the economy - as well as the military and security forces. According to research by Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist at the Russian Academy of Sciences, a quarter of the country's senior bureaucrats are siloviki - a Russian word meaning, roughly, "power guys", which includes members of the armed forces and other security services, not just the FSB. The proportion rises to three-quarters if people simply affiliated to the security services are included. These people represent a psychologically homogeneous group, loyal to roots that go back to the Bolsheviks' first political police, the Cheka. As Mr. Putin says repeatedly, "There is no such thing as a former Chekist."

By many indicators, today's security bosses enjoy a combination of power and money without precedent in Russia's history. The Soviet KGB and its pre-revolutionary ancestors did not care much about money; power was what mattered. Influential though it was, the KGB was a "combat division" of the Communist Party, and subordinate to it. As an outfit that was part intelligence organization, part security agency and part secret political police, it was often better informed, but it could not act on its own authority; it could only make "recommendations". In the 1970s and 1980s it was not even allowed to spy on the party bosses and had to act within Soviet laws, however inhuman.

The KGB provided a crucial service of surveillance and suppression; it was a state within a state. Now, however, it has become the state itself. Apart from Mr. Putin, "There is nobody today who can say no to the FSB," says Mr. Kondaurov.

All important decisions in Russia, says Ms Kryshtanovskaya, are now taken by a tiny group of men who served alongside Mr. Putin in the KGB and who come from his home town of St. Petersburg. In the next few months this coterie may well decide the outcome of next year's presidential election. But whoever succeeds Mr. Putin, real power is likely to remain in the organization. Of all the Soviet institutions, the KGB withstood Russia's transformation to capitalism best and emerged strongest. "Communist ideology has gone, but the methods and psychology of its secret police have remained," says Mr. Kondaurov, who is now a member of parliament.

Scotched, not killed

Mr. Putin's ascent to the presidency of Russia was the result of a chain of events that started at least a quarter of a century earlier, when Yuri Andropov, a former head of the KGB, succeeded Leonid Brezhnev as general secretary of the Communist Party. Andropov's attempts to reform the stagnating Soviet economy in order to preserve the Soviet Union and its political system have served as a model for Mr. Putin. Early in his presidency Mr. Putin unveiled a plaque at the Lubyanka headquarters that paid tribute to Andropov as an "outstanding political figure".

Staffed by highly educated, pragmatic men recruited in the 1960s and 1970s, the KGB was well aware of the dire state of the Soviet economy and the antique state of the party bosses. It was therefore one of the main forces behind perestroika, the loose policy of restructuring started by Mr. Gorbachev in the 1980s. Perestroika's reforms were meant to give the Soviet Union a new lease of life. When they threatened its existence, the KGB mounted a coup against Mr. Gorbachev. Ironically, this precipitated the Soviet collapse.

But Iron Felix bounced back

The defeat of the coup gave Russia an historic chance to liquidate the organization. "If either Gorbachev or Yeltsin had been bold enough to dismantle the KGB during the autumn of 1991, he would have met little resistance," wrote Yevgenia Albats, a journalist who has courageously covered the grimmest chapters in the KGB's history. Instead, both Mr. Gorbachev and Yeltsin tried to reform it.

The "blue blood" of the KGB�the First Chief Directorate, in charge of espionage�was spun off into a separate intelligence service. The rest of the agency was broken into several parts. Then, after a few short months of talk about openness, the doors of the agency slammed shut again and the man charged with trying to reform it, Vadim Bakatin, was ejected. His glum conclusion, delivered at a conference in 1993, was that although the myth about the KGB's invincibility had collapsed, the agency itself was very much alive.

Indeed it was. The newly named Ministry of Security continued to "delegate" the officers of the "active reserve" into state institutions and commercial firms. Soon KGB officers were staffing the tax police and customs services. As Boris Yeltsin himself admitted by the end of 1993, all attempts to reorganize the KGB were "superficial and cosmetic"; in fact, it could not be reformed. "The system of political police has been preserved," he said, "and could be resurrected."

Yet Mr. Yeltsin, though he let the agency survive, did not use it as his power base. In fact, the KGB was cut off from the post-Soviet redistribution of assets. Worse still, it was upstaged and outwitted by a tiny group of opportunists, many of them Jews (not a people beloved by the KGB), who became known as the oligarchs. Between them, they grabbed most of the country's natural resources and other privatized assets. KGB officers watched the oligarchs get super-rich while they stayed cash-strapped and sometimes even unpaid.

Some officers did well enough, but only by offering their services to the oligarchs. To protect themselves from rampant crime and racketeering, the oligarchs tried to privatize parts of the KGB. Their large and costly security departments were staffed and run by ex-KGB officers. They also hired senior agency men as "consultants". Fillip Bobkov, the head of the Fifth Directorate (which dealt with dissidents), worked for a media magnate, Vladimir Gusinsky. Mr. Kondaurov, a former spokesman for the KGB, worked for Mikhail Khodorkovsky, who ran and largely owned Yukos. "People who stayed in the FSB were B-list," says Mark Galeotti, a British analyst of the Russian special services.

Lower-ranking staff worked as bodyguards to Russia's rich. (Andrei Lugovoi, the chief suspect in the murder in London last year of Alexander Litvinenko, once guarded Boris Berezovsky, an oligarch who, facing arrest in Russia, now lives in Britain.) Hundreds of private security firms staffed by KGB veterans sprang up around the country and most of them, though not all, kept their ties to their alma mater. According to Igor Goloshchapov, a former KGB special-forces commando who is now a spokesman for almost 800,000 private security men, "In the 1990s we had one objective: to survive and preserve our skills. We did not consider ourselves to be separate from those who stayed in the FSB. We shared everything with them and we saw our work as just another form of serving the interests of the state. We knew that there would come a moment when we would be called upon."

That moment came on New Year's Eve 1999, when Mr. Yeltsin resigned and, despite his views about the KGB, handed over the reins of power to Mr. Putin, the man he had put in charge of the FSB in 1998 and made prime minister a year later.

The inner circle

As the new president saw things, his first task was to restore the management of the country, consolidate political power and neutralize alternative sources of influence: oligarchs, regional governors, the media, parliament, opposition parties and non-governmental organizations. His KGB buddies helped him with the task.

The flowers fade, the Lubyanka stands

The most politically active oligarchs - Mr. Berezovsky, who had helped Mr. Putin come to power, and Mr. Gusinsky, were pushed out of the country - and their television channels were taken back into state hands. Mr. Khodorkovsky, Russia's richest man, was more stubborn. Despite several warnings, he continued to support opposition parties and NGOs and refused to leave Russia. In 2003 the FSB arrested him and, after a show trial, helped put him in jail.

To deal with unruly regional governors, Mr. Putin appointed special envoys with powers of supervision and control. Most of them were KGB veterans. The governors lost their budgets and their seats in the upper house of the Russian parliament. Later the voters lost their right to elect them.

All the strategic decisions, according to Ms. Kryshtanovskaya, were and still are made by the small group of people who have formed Mr. Putin's informal politburo. They include two deputy heads of the presidential administration: Igor Sechin, who officially controls the flow of documents but also oversees economic matters, and Viktor Ivanov, responsible for personnel in the Kremlin and beyond. Then come Nikolai Patrushev, the head of the FSB, and Sergei Ivanov, a former defence minister and now the first deputy prime minister. All are from St. Petersburg, and all served in intelligence or counter-intelligence. Mr. Sechin is the only one who does not advertise his background.

That two of the most influential men, Mr. Sechin and Viktor Ivanov, hold only fairly modest posts (each is a deputy head) and seldom appear in public is misleading. It was, after all, common Soviet practice to have a deputy, often linked to the KGB, who carried more weight than his notional boss. "These people feel more comfortable when they are in the shadows," explains Ms. Kryshtanovskaya.

In any event, each of these KGB veterans has a plethora of followers in other state institutions. One of Mr. Patrushev's former deputies, also from the KGB, is the minister of the interior, in charge of the police. Sergei Ivanov still commands authority within the army's headquarters. Mr. Sechin has close family ties to the minister of justice. The prosecution service, which in Soviet times at least nominally controlled the KGB's work, has now become its instrument, along with the tax police.

The political clout of these siloviki is backed by (or has resulted in) state companies with enormous financial resources. Mr. Sechin, for example, is the chairman of Rosneft, Russia's largest state-run oil company. Viktor Ivanov heads the board of directors of Almaz-Antei, the country's main producer of air-defence rockets, and of Aeroflot, the national airline. Sergei Ivanov oversees the military-industrial complex and is in charge of the newly created aircraft-industry monopoly.

But the siloviki reach farther, into all areas of Russian life. They can be found not just in the law-enforcement agencies but in the ministries of economy, transport, natural resources, telecoms and culture. Several KGB veterans occupy senior management posts in Gazprom, Russia's biggest company, and its pocket bank, Gazprombank (whose vice-president is the 26-year-old son of Sergei Ivanov).

Alexei Gromov, Mr. Putin's trusted press secretary, sits on the board of Channel One, Russia's main television channel. The railway monopoly is headed by Vladimir Yakunin, a former diplomat who served his country at the United Nations in New York and is believed to have held a high rank in the KGB. Sergei Chemezov, Mr. Putin's old KGB friend from his days in Dresden (where the president worked from 1985 to 1990), is in charge of Rosoboronexport, a state arms agency that has grown on his watch into a vast conglomerate. The list goes on.

Many officers of the active reserve have been seconded to Russia's big companies, both private and state-controlled, where they draw a salary while also remaining on the FSB payroll. "We must make sure that companies don't make decisions that are not in the interest of the state," one current FSB colonel explains. Being an active-reserve officer in a firm is, says another KGB veteran, a dream job: "You get a huge salary and you get to keep your FSB card." One such active-reserve officer is the 26-year-old son of Mr. Patrushev who was last year seconded from the FSB to Rosneft, where he is now advising Mr. Sechin. (After seven months at Rosneft, Mr. Putin awarded Andrei Patrushev the Order of Honor, citing his professional successes and "many years of conscientious work".) Rosneft was the main recipient of Yukos's assets after the firm was destroyed.

The attack on Yukos, which entered its decisive stage just as Mr. Sechin was appointed to Rosneft, was the first and most blatant example of property redistribution towards the siloviki, but not the only one. Mikhail Gutseriev, the owner of Russneft, a fast-growing oil company, was this month forced to give up his business after being accused of illegal activities. For a time, he had refused; but, as he explained, "they tightened the screws" and one state agency after another - the general prosecutor's office, the tax police, the interior ministry - began conducting checks on him.

From oligarchy to spookocracy

The transfer of financial wealth from the oligarchs to the siloviki was perhaps inevitable. It certainly met with no objection from most Russians, who have little sympathy for "robber barons". It even earned the siloviki a certain popularity. But whether they will make a success of managing their newly acquired assets is doubtful. "They know how to break up a company or to confiscate something. But they don't know how to manage a business. They use force simply because they don't know any other method," says an ex-KGB spook who now works in business.

Curiously, the concentration of such power and economic resources in the hands of a small group of siloviki, who identify themselves with the state, has not alienated people in the lower ranks of the security services. There is trickle-down of a sort: the salary of an average FSB operative has gone up several times over the past decade, and a bit of freelancing is tolerated. Besides, many Russians inside and outside the ranks believe that the transfer of assets from private hands to the siloviki is in the interests of the state. "They are getting their own back and they have the right to do so," says Mr. Goloshchapov.

The rights of the siloviki, however, have nothing to do with the formal kind that are spelled out in laws or in the constitution. What they are claiming is a special mission to restore the power of the state, save Russia from disintegration and frustrate the enemies that might weaken it. Such idealistic sentiments, says Mr. Kondaurov, coexist with an opportunistic and cynical eagerness to seize the situation for personal or institutional gain.

Ivanov, Putin and Patrushev: the agency marches forward

The security servicemen present themselves as a tight brotherhood entitled to break any laws for the sake of their mission. Their high language is laced with profanity, and their nationalism is often combined with contempt for ordinary people. They are, however, loyal to each other.

Competition to enter the service is intense. The KGB picked its recruits carefully. Drawn from various institutes and universities, they then went to special KGB schools. Today the FSB Academy in Moscow attracts the children of senior siloviki; a vast new building will double its size. The point, says Mr. Galeotti, the British analyst, "is not just what you learn, but who you meet there".

Graduates of the FSB Academy may well agree. "A Chekist is a breed," says a former FSB general. A good KGB heritage - a father or grandfather, say, who worked for the service - is highly valued by today's siloviki. Marriages between siloviki clans are also encouraged.

Viktor Cherkesov, the head of Russia's drug-control agency, who was still hunting dissidents in the late 1980s, has summed up the FSB psychology in an article that has become the manifesto of the siloviki and a call for consolidation.

We [siloviki] must understand that we are one whole. History ruled that the weight of supporting the Russian state should fall on our shoulders. I believe in our ability, when we feel danger, to put aside everything petty and to remain faithful to our oath.

As well as invoking secular patriotism, Russia's security bosses can readily find allies among the priesthood. Next to the FSB building in Lubyanka Square stands the 17th-century church of the Holy Wisdom, "restored in August 2001with zealous help from the FSB," says a plaque. Inside, freshly painted icons gleam with gold. "Thank God there is the FSB. All power is from God and so is theirs," says Father Alexander, who leads the service. A former KGB general agrees: "They really believe that they were chosen and are guided by God and that even the high oil prices they have benefited from are God's will."

Sergei Grigoryants, who has often been interrogated and twice imprisoned (for anti-Soviet propaganda) by the KGB, says the security chiefs believe "that they are the only ones who have the real picture and understanding of the world." At the centre of this picture is an exaggerated sense of the enemy, which justifies their very existence: without enemies, what are they for? "They believe they can see enemies where ordinary people can't," says Ms. Kryshtanovskaya.

"A few years ago, we succumbed to the illusion that we don't have enemies and we have paid dearly for that," Mr. Putin told the FSB in 1999. It is a view shared by most KGB veterans and their successors. The greatest danger comes from the West, whose aim is supposedly to weaken Russia and create disorder. "They want to make Russia dependent on their technologies," says a current FSB staffer. "They have flooded our market with their goods. Thank God we still have nuclear arms." The siege mentality of the siloviki and their anti-Westernism have played well with the Russian public. Mr. Goloshchapov, the private agents' spokesman, expresses the mood this way: "In Gorbachev's time Russia was liked by the West and what did we get for it? We have surrendered everything: eastern Europe, Ukraine, Georgia. NATO has moved to our borders."

From this perspective, anyone who plays into the West's hands at home is the internal enemy. In this category are the last free-thinking journalists, the last NGOs sponsored by the West and the few liberal politicians who still share Western values.

To sense the depth of these feelings, consider the response of one FSB officer to the killing of Anna Politkovskaya, a journalist whose books criticizing Mr. Putin and his brutal war in Chechnya are better known outside than inside Russia. "I don't know who killed her, but her articles were beneficial to the Western press. She deserved what she got." And so, by this token, did Litvinenko, the ex-KGB officer poisoned by polonium in London last year.

In such a climate, the idea that Russia's security services are entitled to deal ruthlessly with enemies of the state, wherever they may be, has gained wide acceptance and is supported by a new set of laws. One, aimed at "extremism", gives the FSB and other agencies ample scope to pursue anyone who acts or speaks against the Kremlin. It has already been invoked against independent analysts and journalists. A lawyer who complained to the Constitutional Court about the FSB's illegal tapping of his client's telephone has been accused of disclosing state secrets. Several scientists who collaborated with foreign firms are in jail for treason.

Despite their loyalty to old Soviet roots, today's security bosses differ from their predecessors. They do not want a return to communist ideology or an end to capitalism, whose fruits they enjoy. They have none of the asceticism of their forebears. Nor do they relish mass repression: in a country where fear runs deep, attacking selected individuals does the job. But the concentration of such power and money in the hands of the security services does not bode well for Russia.

And not very good at their job

The creation of enemies may smooth over clan disagreements and fuel nationalism, but it does not make the country more secure or prosperous. While the FSB reports on the ever-rising numbers of foreign spies, accuses scientists of treason and hails its "brotherhood", Russia remains one of the most criminalized, corrupt and bureaucratic countries in the world.

During the crisis at a school in Beslan in 2004, the FSB was good at harassing journalists trying to find out the truth. But it could not even cordon off the school in which the hostages were held. Under the governorship of an ex-FSB colleague of Mr. Putin, Ingushetia, the republic that borders Chechnya, has descended into a new theatre of war. The army is plagued by crime and bullying. Private businessmen are regularly hassled by law-enforcement agencies. Russia's foreign policy has turned out to be self-fulfilling: by perpetually denouncing enemies on every front, it has helped to turn many countries from potential friends into nervous adversaries.

The rise to power of the KGB veterans should not have been surprising. In many ways, argues Inna Solovyova, a Russian cultural historian, it had to do with the qualities that Russians find appealing in their rulers: firmness, reserve, authority and a degree of mystery. "The KGB fitted this description, or at least knew how to seem to fit it."

But are they doing the country any good? "People who come from the KGB are tacticians. We have never been taught to solve strategic tasks," says Mr. Kondaurov. The biggest problem of all, he and a few others say, is the agency's loss of professionalism. He blushes when he talks about the polonium capers in London. "We never sank to this level," he sighs. "What a blow to the country's reputation!" [TheEconomist/23August2007] 

Section III - Terrorism

Terror Chief: We Will Be Hit Again. Another attack by al-Qaida on the United States is "inevitable", the head of the National Counter Terrorism Center says. Retired Vice Adm. John Redd told Newsweek magazine that al-Qaida is actively plotting to hit America, but intelligence sources don't have enough information to issue a precise warning or raise the threat level. 

Admiral Redd also told Newsweek that if the US knew the location of Osama bin Laden, he'd "either be dead or captured. [He's] obviously a tough target. That whole area is a tough target. And my standard answer on [bin Laden] is: remember [convicted Atlanta Olympics bomber] Eric Rudolph. Nobody likes to hear it but, I mean, here's a guy [who was on the run] in the United States of America. We had unlimited access � the FBI, local law enforcement � and the guy hid out for an awful long time just by keeping a low profile." Admiral Redd said the US has strong indications that al-Qaida is planning to attack somewhere in the West, but the US does not have tactical details. 

According to Admiral Redd, "This is a long war [on terror]. People say, 'What is this like?' I say it's like the cold war in only two respects. Number one, there is a strong ideological content to it. Number two, it is going to be a long war. I'll be dead before this one is over. We will probably lose a battle or two along the way. We have to prepare for that. Statistically, you can't bat 1.000 forever, but we haven't been hit for six years, [which is] no accident. We are better prepared today for the war on terror than at any time in our history. We have done an incredible amount of things since 9/11, across the board. Intelligence is better. They are sharing it better. We are taking the terrorists down. We are working with the allies very carefully. We are doing the strategic operational planning, going after every element in the terrorist life cycle. So we have come a long way. But these guys are smart. They are determined. They are patient. So over time we are going to lose a battle or two. We are going to get hit again, you know, but you've got to have the stick-to-itiveness or persistence to outlast it." [Newsmax/28August20087]



The Information War in the Pacific

[The WIN editors would like to thank AFIO member Dick McDonald for his comments on the WIN of 6 August 2007. The article on "The Information War in the Pacific," taken from Studies in Intelligence, left some readers with a completely wrong impression of the reason for the Japanese surrender. We saw the spirit of the article a little differently; an explanation of a little-known "CI" portion of the war.  When we read it, we didn't see it as saying it won the war - we were merely trying to present what we thought was an interesting, perhaps little-known covert operation, that contributed to the war effort.  We in no way meant to imply that this is what won the war, and we apologize for any confusion.  Following are the comments from Mr. McDonald:]

I must take some exception to the "Context and Precedence" item on "The Information War in the Pacific." I find it a stretch of history as I understand it to press a case that it was Information Warfare and not the A-Bombs that brought about Japan's surrender in August 1945. In explaining "how the Japanese nation actually came to surrender," the author asserts, "Many Americans believe that the surrender immediately followed the use of the atomic bomb." I submit that the delay to the surrender announcement, which was only six days, was lightning speed, given the existing logistics of diplomatic communications and the need to exchange notes in remote places; actually, the Emperor decided to accept the Allies' final terms on 13 August, but it took two more days to prepare, record and broadcast his Rescript for surrender (and all of this the author actually recounts).

I do not take away from the important work OWI did throughout WWII. But in the wind-down of the Pacific War, they were bit players in terms of manpower and effort expended, and, I submit, net results. Indeed JICPOA Forward on Guam had a major hand in producing the leaflets showered on Japanese cities in the second quarter of 1945, especially after the major fire-bombings, warning of the cites targeted to be hit and telling of a powerful new weapon. And that was only a small part of the JICPOA work effort. In any case, whatever role OWI played in the final days of the War, it was not so prominent as portrayed in the WIN. RADM Mac Showers was a full-time active participant in the Pacific War, the last eight months of which he served directly on Admiral Nimitz' staff as deputy Fleet Intelligence Officer to CAPT Eddie Layton. He relates, " During that period, I never heard of OWI or any action they were taking in the conflict. That's not to say they did nothing, but it was nothing that we in the forefront of the action saw or became aware of." He goes on to say, "I cannot condone any claim that their activities were in ANY WAY responsible for the Japanese surrender." He suggests that anyone needing further proof of this should read Doug MacEachin's monograph issued in December 1998 by the Center for the Study of Intelligence, "The Final Months of the War with Japan: Signals Intelligence, U.S. Invasion Planning, and the A-Bomb Decision."

Dick McDonald

Coming Events

4-6 September 2007 - Chicago, IL - INSA 3 day presentation of Analytic Transformation. The DDNI for Analysis will present new standards for analysis suggested for the Intelligence Community. $695 per person. Speakers will include Thomas Fingar, DDNI for Analysis; James Clapper, Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence; Michael Wertheimer, ADDNI for Analytic Transformation & Technology; and others. Location: Sheraton-on-the-Water, Chicago, IL. Further details at

5 September 2007 - Las Vegas, NV - The AFIO Las Vegas Chapter meeting will feature guest speaker Stephen M. Scott, formerly with Diplomatic Security, U.S. Department of State. The chapter will hold it's meeting at the Officers’ Club at Nellis Air Force Base. Our featured speaker will be Stephen M. Scott, formerly with Diplomatic Security, U.S. Department of State. Mr. Scott will speak on “Living in Moscow: A Diplomatic Security Engineer's Perspective.” Date/Time: Wednesday, September 5th, at 6:00 p.m. (RSVP deadline to submit names of guests is Thursday, August 31st.) Place: The Officers' Club at Nellis Air Force Base. All guests must use the MAIN GATE located at the intersection on Craig Road and Las Vegas Blvd. Address: 5871 Fitzgerald Blvd., Nellis AFB, NV 89191 Phone: 702-644-2582. Dinner: The Officers' Club has an excellent, informal dinner venue along with a selection of snacks. You are welcome to arrive early and join us in the "Check Six" bar area. Water will be provided during the meeting, but you may also purchase beverages and food at the bar and bring them to the meeting. Once again, please feel free to bring your spouse and/or guest(s) to dinner as well as our meeting.
Please contact Christine Eppley at or 702.295.0073 by Thursday, August 31, RSVP if you wish to be added to the Access List for entrance to Nellis Air Force Base (through the Main Gate) to attend the meeting on September 5. Entrance to the base cannot be guaranteed if names are not submitted by Ms. Eppley

Thursday, 6 September 2007; 6:30 pm - Washington, DC - Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth: Terrorists and Technology, an joint event by the International Spy Museum and RAND Corporation “Terrorists attacking British bases in Basra are using aerial footage displayed by the Google Earth internet tool to pinpoint their attacks, say Army intelligence sources.”— The Telegraph, 13 January 2007 It may be hard to imagine the use of “best practices” in a terrorist context, but terrorist groups have found new and efficient ways to achieve their goals. In Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth, Breaching the Fortress Wall, and Freedom and Information, Brian A. Jackson, Kim Cragin, and Eric Landree examine how terrorist groups attempt to use and exchange technologies and information. In this discussion, the authors will review a variety of technologies ranging from remote-detonation devices to converted field ordnance to katyusha rockets, terrorist strategies to counter government efforts to protect the public, and the availability of data regarding U.S. counterterrorism systems and defenses for attacks on the U.S. air, rail, and sea transportation infrastructure. Join the experts as they share their thoughts about improving threat assessments, disrupting innovation processes, and affecting terrorist groups’ cost-benefit trade-offs. Tickets: $20

6 September 2007 - Front Royal, VA - Tony Sesow Golf Classic.  The Naval Intelligence Foundation hosts its annual "Tony Sesow Golf Classic" fund-raising tournament at the Shenandoah Valley Golf Course. The tournament starts at 0800 with registration, followed by a light breakfast and concludes with lunch and refreshments. Lucky draw and all skill prizes will be awarded. The cost is $80.00 for an individual, $300.00 for a team and sponsorship is available for $400.00 (team included). Each Closest-to-the Pin winner will automatically be entered into the Jetblue shoot-out for $50,000 which will take place directly after the tournament. For sponsorship and additional information, please contact Peter Buchan at (540) 671-4435 or

8 September 2007 - Orange Park, FL - AFIO North Florida Chapter Meeting. Contact Quiel Begonia at for details. Meeting held at Orange Park Country Club, 2625 Country Club Blvd, Orange Park, FL.

9-14 September 2007 - Oxford, United Kingdom - Christ Church Conflict Conference 2007 "The Nature of War"  The object of the 2007 Conflict conference is to study War in its various manifestations, its apparent ‘permanence as a feature of the human condition’ (Clausewitz), and the successes and failures of attempts to control it. The program looks first of the basic steps on the road to war, not least an examination of alternatives to armed conflict. Next, the different types of war: civil wars that engulfed the English-speaking world in the 17th and 19th centuries, or Bosnia in 1990; conventional warfare between nation states: the 20th century and its two world wars, guerilla wars and the conflicts of decolonization - and the uniqueness of the Falklands War of 1982. All these will come under scrutiny. The pervading granular warfare that engages us all today with the threat of terrorism, focused closely on the present Iraqi conflict. Finally there will be an examination of the outcomes of war and the inevitable social change that comes in its wake. Christ Church welcomes speakers of the highest distinction and scholarship. Speakers at the Nature of War conference are drawn from amongst political and military experts as well as the media. Amongst those participating are Professor Kenneth Hagan of the US Naval War College; Larry Hollingworth, with personal experience of the Iraqi conflict and a veteran of Afghanistan, Chechnya and East Timor; and Major-General Julian Thompson, military commander in the Falklands War. The program will be administered by Alex Webb, and her Christ Church conference team. Further information will be shortly published on the Christ Church website and an illustrated prospectus will be available. Contact Nature of War, The Steward's Office, Christ Church, Oxford, OX1 1DP, U.K. or email, telephone +44 (0) 1865 286848.

15 September 2007 - Kennebunk ME - the AFIO Maine Chapter hosts former CIA officer Tyler Drumheller. The meeting, which is open to the public, will be held at the Kennebunk Free Library, 112 Main Street, Kennebunk, at 2:00 p.m.  Further information at 207-985-2392.

19 September 2007 - Scottsdale, AZ -The Arizona Chapter of AFIO meeting features Richard W. Bloom, College Dean/Director of Terrorism, Intelligence, and Security Studies at Embry-Riddle. The chapter will hold it's meeting at 11:30 AM at Buster's Restaurant in Scottsdale. The speaker will be Dr. Richard W. Bloom, Dean of the College of Arts and Science, Professor of Political and Clinical Psychology and Director of Terrorism, Intelligence, and Security Studies at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Prescott, Arizona. Dr. Bloom has worked for the United States government as an intelligence operations manager, intelligence analyst, special operations planner, politico-military planner and military clinical psychologist. He is President of the Military Psychology Division of the American Psychological Association, diplomat of the American Board of Professional Psychology (Clinical Psychology). He carries out policy analyses and reviews applied research in Aviation Intelligence, profiling of aviation security threat and assessment, terrorism, and counter terrorism, psychological warfare, propaganda and disinformation. For information and reservations contact Bill Williams at (602) 944-2451 or FIREBALLCI@HOTMAIL.COM

20 September 2007 - Colorado Springs, CO - AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter features speaker Craig B. Chellis on "Adapting the Intelligence Process to Monitoring Natural Disasters". Craig is a former staffer of both NRO and CIA.. The lunch meeting is at the Falcon Room of the Officers Club, Air Force Academy. The cost is $10.00 and the lunch starts at 11:30 am. Contact Richard (Dick) Durham at 719-488-2884 or by e-mail Reservations must be made to Durham not later than September 17, 2007

Thursday, 20 September 2007; 12 noon – 1 pm - Washington, DC - iSpy: Surveillance and Power in the Interactive Era, free booksigning at the International Spy Museum Your groceries, the songs you buy for your iPod, the programs you TiVo, all these choices are added to a global data mine. Unbeknownst to the casual user of these services, this mother lode of information is already being put to use in various economic, political, and social contexts. In his new book iSpy: Surveillance and Power in the Interactive Era, Mark Andrejevic reveals how untempered public enthusiasm for new technologies offers unfettered new modes of surveillance and control. Join Andrejevic for a chilling look at the vortex in which collaborative participation becomes centralized control. Free! No registration required! Join the author for an informal chat and book signing.

20-22 September 2007 - Rochester, NY - Fourth Conference on Mathematical Methods in Counterterrorism. The event will gather together a diverse group of mathematicians and scientists from universities, national labs, the private sector, and defense agencies. They plan to include informative talks to provide background for the various subjects, papers indicating the current state of research, and
discussions that will explore future research topics. Visit for further information and registration. Publicity for previous conferences and for further information visit

20 September 2007, 6 pm - 10 pm - Tysons Corner, VA - The OSS Society hosts the William J. Donovan Award Dinner  The dinner will honor MG John K. Singlaub USA(Ret), the current Chairman of The Society, who will be the Award's 2007 recipient. The event will include The Society's own celebration of the 60th anniversary of the founding of CIA, formed after the OSS disbanded. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has been invited to present a keynote address, and other military leaders are invited. Further details can be found by writing them at

Tuesday, 25 September 2007; 6:30 pm - Washington, DC - The Agency at 60: Former DCI & CIA Director R. James Woolsey Reflects - A Special Evening at the International Spy Museum “We have slain a large dragon, but we now live in a jungle filled with a bewildering variety of poisonous snakes. And in many ways, the dragon was easier to keep track of.”— R. James Woolsey, 1991 Former U.S. Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) R. James Woolsey headed the CIA at a time of great change and challenge. The Cold War was ending and the Agency was suffering from the recent revelation that intelligence officer Aldrich Ames was a Soviet mole. Serving as both the DCI and the CIA director, Woolsey was appointed by President Clinton to help restructure the intelligence service. During this candid conversation, the former DCI will share what it was like to head the CIA during that tumultuous time. He will draw on his tenure at the CIA and his distinguished government career to comment on the Agency as it turns 60. Woolsey will also share some of his thoughts about the future of the CIA during this intimate event. Tickets: $20 REGISTER:

26 - 27 September 2007 - The Hague, Netherlands - Netherlands Intelligence Studies Association (NISA) CONFERENCE 2008  The Netherlands Defence College (IDL), The Hague, Netherlands is the location for 'Intelligence Failures and Cultural Misperceptions: Asia, 1945 till the present' The NISA would like to invite both academic and (former) practitioners of intelligence to submit proposals for papers that entail a theoretical approach to the intelligence failures and cultural misperceptions against the backdrop of the situation in Asia since 1945. The intention of the conference organizers is to develop a more analytical perspective on the above mentioned events, rather than adding to existing descriptive narratives. Submitters are requested to send in proposals of approximately 400 words pertaining to the following subjects : The Cold War in Asia Economic espionage in and from Asia Intelligence cultures UKUSA cooperation in Asia The 'war on terror' Proposals should be submitted no later than 1 May, 2007 and can be sent to: or write to

Thursday, 27 September 2007 - 6:00 PM - 8:00 PM - Arlington, VA - Greater DC Chapter Meeting of Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals [SCIP]. Topic: Mapping Intelligence in a Web 2.0 World. Web 2.0 has changed some of the basic precepts on where market and competitive intelligence comes from. Traditionally the authoritative source of information came from the established media and publishing houses. Web 2.0 has introduced the concept of collective intelligence and the efficient gathering of information from the edges. This has been most prominently seen with the advent of blogging and the emergence of fringe amateur experts as respected voices on a variety of subjects. While blogging has been the most prominent shift the concept of collective intelligence is changing several industries and source of information. This talk will discuss how mapping and geographic data collection is being changed by Web 2.0 and what the repercussions will be for fields like competitive intelligence. SPEAKER is Sean Gorman, founder of FortiusOne in 2005 to bring advanced geospatial technologies to market. Dr. Gorman is a recognized expert in geospatial analysis and visualization.
LOCATION: Tivoli Restaurant1700 N Moore St, Arlington, VA
FEE: Early Bird Registration Fees (Ends September 7th) SCIP Member $30.00, Non-Member $40.00 Student $20.00 (Please contact Dionedra Dorsey for registration details) Registration Fees (After September 7th) SCIP Member $35.00; Non-Member $40.00; Student $20.00 On Site Registration Fees SCIP Member $40.00;Non Member $50.00; Student $25.00 (Please contact Dionedra Dorsey for registration details) To register now:
Registration, Networking, Food & Beverage 6:00 PM; Presentation 6:30 PM; Q & A / Networking 7:30 PM
QUESTIONS? Contact August Jackson, Greater Washington Chapter Chair, email:
Dionedra Dorsey, SCIP Chapter Relations Coordinator, email:, 703.739.0696 ext. 111

28 September 2007 - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Fall Luncheon

10:30 a.m. to 2 p.m.

Joel F. Brenner, head of the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive (ONCIX)
on "Challenges of Globalization for National Security Interests"
John F. Sullivan, former CIA Polygraph Division, author of GATEKEEPER: Memoirs of a CIA Polygrapher on
Taking the pre-employment, security, lifestyle, and reinvestigation poly -
What the polygraphers see, What it means, What you need to know.

Space limited. Registration here

and for your October planning.....  

Wednesday, 3 October 2007; 6:30 pm - Washington, DC - The Truth is Out There: Conspiracy Theories and Their Use by Intelligence Agencies at the International Spy Museum “Once contracted, conspiracy theory is an incurable condition.”—Christopher Andrew in Eternal Vigilance Do you believe the U.S. Army manufactured AIDS as a biological weapon? That Washington has been covering up UFO sightings for decades? Or that the CIA was involved in Kennedy’s assassination? If so, you are not alone. Americans are obsessed with conspiracy theories to a point that many have come to believe our democracy is really controlled by invisible forces operating behind the scenes. What makes conspiracy theories so appealing and why have they become so prevalent in this day and age? Do some of them contain a grain of truth? And who stands to gain from spreading these ideas? Join Robert Alan Goldberg, author of Enemies Within, as he unravels the mysteries of many popular conspiracy theories and International Spy Museum historian, Thomas Boghardt, who will reveal how intelligence agencies across the world have used these ingenious inventions as political weapons. Tickets: $15 REGISTER:

Thursday, 4 October 2007; 12 noon – 1 pm - Washington, DC - Corporate Spy: Industrial Espionage and Counterintelligence in the Multinational Enterprise at the International Spy Museum In May of 2006, PepsiCo alerted the Coca Cola Company that someone was trying to sell Coke’s secrets. An FBI sting implicated a secretary who has since been sentenced to eight years in federal prison for conspiring to steal trade secrets from the famous beverage maker. How unusual was this case? How frequently are businesses under attack? How can they protect themselves? Join Steeple Aston, PhD, author of Corporate Spy, as he uncovers the world of the corporate spies: who they are and how they operate. You’ll learn the warning signs and hear about some of the most dramatic cases of industrial espionage in recent years. Free! No registration required! Join the author for an informal chat and book signing.

 5 October 2007 - New York, NY - The AFIO New York Metropolitan Chapter hosts an evening meeting to hear Haviland Smith. Smith is a retired CIA station chief having served in East and West Europe and was chief of CIA's Counterterrorism Staff. He served in Tehran, Beirut, Prague, Berlin and Washington. A classic spymaster's tour of duty. Undergraduate of Dartmouth, a Master's from University of London, both in Russian Studies. Smith is mentioned numerous times in Tim Weiner's new book "Legacy of Ashes" - which takes a highly one-sided, critical view of the Agency. Haviland Smith is well-known for being a dynamic, mesmerizing speaker! Join us this evening and find out. New Location of event: Club Quarters (former Chemists Club), 40 West 45th St, Between 5th and 6th Ave. Questions: Jerry Goodwin, President, AFIO - New York Metropolitan Chapter at 212-308-1450

6 October 2007 - Seattle, WA - AFIO Pacific Northwest Chapter Meeting looks at the Air Defense Sector. The meeting features Capt Cannady, LTC Woodard, and Maj. Krueger. An outstanding program is planned with speakers from McChord AFB and the Washington National Guard. Captain Matthew Cannady is the Intelligence Officer assigned to the Western Air Defense Sector (WADS) at McChord. He will provide an in-depth briefing on the workings of the Air Defense system on the West Coast. Lt. Colonel Timothy Woodard the J2 of the Washington National Guard and Major Bill Krueger will provide a detailed briefing on the recently created 194th Intelligence Squadron. The cost of the meeting will be $25 which includes a breakfast buffet. Time: 09:30am - 1:30pm. Where: South View Lounge at the Museum of Flight. The meeting is open to anyone interested in national intelligence whether they are a member or not. The chapter welcomes family, friends and associates to attend. Please mail your checks, payable to AFIO PNW Chapter, to: AFIO PNW Chapter, 4616 25th Ave NE Suite 495, Seattle, WA 98105. Please RSVP Fran Dyer at:

Tuesday, 16 October 2007; 7 pm - Washington, DC - Syriana. Movie and post-film talk with former CIA Officer, Robert Baer. “Intelligence work isn't training seminars and gold stars for attendance…” —Bob Barnes in Syriana Corruption and power drive the plot of Syriana, a multi-layered thriller that weaves together emirs, analysts, intelligence officers, and immigrant workers. In the thought-provoking film, one commodity connects everything—oil. This shocking depiction of ruthless deals and raw emotion is inspired by the experiences of former CIA case officer Robert Baer—the screenplay is drawn from Baer’s books See No Evil and Sleeping with the Devil. Baer’s twenty-year career in the Directorate of Operations took him to assignments in Northern Iraq, Lebanon, and Tajikstan. His understanding of the Middle East shaped the film and brings a grim realism to this exploration of a double-crossing and morally skewed world. Join Baer for a special screening and discussion of the award-winning film. Program to be held at the National Portrait Gallery, Eighth and G Streets, NW Tickets: $15 REGISTER:

17-18 October 2007 - Chantilly, VA - AFCEA International Classified Fall Symposium - Top Secret SI/TK As part of an ongoing series for business executives with active intelligence community clearances, the AFCEA will be exploring Intelligence Community and National Security issues as they relate to the topic of information sharing and collaboration. The event will be held at the National Reconnaissance Office in Chantilly. Four focused sessions will address what has worked, what has not worked, and what still needs to be done. This is a critical topic requiring changes not only within the government and Intelligence Community, but also for marketing ideas for the private sector. For further details see:

18-19 October 2007 - Laurel, MD - The Symposium on Cryptologic History sponsored by the Center for Cryptologic History, to be held at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD. The National Security Agency's Center for Cryptologic History (CCH) hosts its 2007 Symposium on Cryptologic History. The CCH is looking for papers to be presented on fresh topics relating to the history of cryptology, with an emphasis on World War II and the Cold War, although papers on other fresh topics will be considered. Send your proposal for a paper or a panel, or any questions about the symposium to, or FAX them to 301-688-2342. Proposals will be considered after March 16, and a schedule issued.

19-20 October 2007 - Hampton Beach, NH - The Fall 2007 meeting of the AFIO New England Chapter will be held at the Ashworth-by-the-Sea in Hampton Beach. A full description of services as well as directions to the hotel are available at Their main speaker will be Andy Bacevisch. They will also hear from their own Gene Wojciechowski. Andrew Bacevisch was born in Normal, IL in 1947 and is a 1969 graduate of West Point. He served in Vietnam commanding an armored cavalry platoon, and later earned an MA and PhD in history at Princeton while teaching at West Point. After his army service, he taught at the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies before coming to Boston University, where he headed the Center for International Relations for several years. He is the author of a number of books on the US military and his op-ed pieces appear regularly in the national press. The program will begin with a Friday evening complimentary wine and cheese social at the Ashworth-by-the-Sea starting at 6:00 PM. This get-together is a wonderful opportunity to renew friendships, as well as make new ones in a relaxed informal setting. We anticipate that our speakers will join us at the social. This may be followed by a no-host dinner at local area restaurants. Our Saturday schedule is as follows 9:00 - 10:45 a.m. Meeting Registration, 11:00 - 11:20 a.m. First Speaker, 12:00 - 1:15 p.m. Luncheon,1:15 - 2:15 p.m. Keynote Speaker, 2:30 p.m. Adjournment. For additional information contact

20 October 07 - Kennebunk, ME. The Maine Chapter of AFIO will host John Robb, author of "Brave New War." Robb, a graduate of the Air Force Academy and Yale University,  has worked as a special operations counterterrorism officer and is a successful software CEO pioneering in weblogs and RSS.  He has worked, lived ,and traveled extensively throughout the world.  Over the past few years he has been analyzing guerrilla insurgencies on his blog Global Guerrillas.  Robb offers a unique insight into terrorism, global security, and U.S. vulnerabilities to this type of warfare.  The meeting, which is open to the public, will be held at the Kennebunk Free Library, 112 Main Street, Kennebunk, at 2:00 p.m.  Further information at 207-985-2392

22-26 October 2007 - The Midwest Chapter of AFIO is planning a trip to Washington, DC  The trip will run from Monday, October 22, 2007 through Friday, October 26, 2007. Plans are being made to visit the White House, the Pentagon, and the Capitol, with the possibility of laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier. All other tours will be worked around the laying of the wreath and scheduled tours provided by the government. Contact Angelo DiLiberti at 847-931-4181 for more details and a registration reply form. Spaces are limited and reply forms must be submitted early for tour background checks.

23-24 October 2007 - NMIA Symposium for 2007 visits the National Reconnaissance Office - SECRET/NOFORN. Attendees must hold SECRET/NOFORN clearance. Fee: $475 pp.  Includes presentation by LTG David Deptula, A-2, HQ USAF Transformation followed by speakers on AF Cyber Command, Airborne ISR and ISR Personnel Development. Day two features Under SecDef James Clapper on “Revitalization of DOD Counterintelligence” followed by speakers from the Office of the SECDEF discussing the future of CI at military commands and the merger of CI and HUMINT. To signup visit

25-27 October 2007 - McLean, VA - AFIO National Intelligence Symposium. The AFIO National Intelligence Symposium runs Thursday, October 25 through Saturday, October 27, at the Sheraton Premiere Hotel in Tysons Corner, VA. Details to be sent directly to all members.

For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events


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