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Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS
Syrian-Born US Citizen Accused of Acting as Syrian Agent, Reporting on Anti-Assad Activities. A Syrian-born, naturalized U.S. citizen has been indicted on charges of spying on American activists opposed to the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad and providing audio and video recordings to that country's intelligence agents.
According to an indictment unsealed Wednesday, Mohamad Soueid of Leesburg, Va., who was arrested Tuesday, was charged with acting in the U.S. as an unregistered agent of a foreign government. Soueid (pronounced SWAYD) was scheduled to make an initial appearance in U.S. District Court in Alexandria on Wednesday afternoon.
According to the indictment, Soueid sent 20 recordings between April and June to Syrian's intelligence agency. They depict protests in this country against the Syrian regime, which has cracked down ruthlessly on anti-government protesters there. [Read more: WashingtonPost/12October2011]
Release of Alleged Spy Angers German Investigators. Critics have called the court decision to release a suspected spy as "a goodwill gesture intended to smooth Mrs. Merkel's way" during her upcoming visit.
Only weeks before German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Ulan Bator, a court in Germany ruled that a Mongolian official detained as part of an investigation into an illegal kidnapping must be released. Criminal investigators here say the decision was "removed from reality" and "counterproductive".
Official visits between heads of state, worldwide, follow strict protocols and schedules are determined far in advance. That means the schedule on Thursday, when German Chancellor Angela Merkel carries out the official part of her visit to Mongolia, is already common knowledge. First, the Mongolian prime minister will welcome the chancellor to Ulan Bator, the capital, with military honors. Then she is scheduled to meet with Mongolia's president, followed by lunch with the prime minister.
In between, scheduled for precisely 10:15 a.m., comes the signing of a trade agreement. Mongolia, once the heart of Genghis Khan's empire, is considered a highly attractive emerging market, with a small population but large reserves of coal, iron ore, copper and gold. Berlin provides development aid totaling around €25 million ($34 million) annually. [Read more: Bönisch&Röbel/Spiegel/12October2011]
Spy's French Cooking Course Stirs Debate. Taiwan's military intelligence body has come under fire after one of its agents returned as a Le Cordon Bleu-certified chef following a so-called undercover mission in France, a newspaper reported yesterday.
The agent, whose NT$1 million tuition for the cooking classes in France was sponsored by the military, has now lent his Le Cordon Bleu certificate to someone else for a fee, the United Evening News said.
The Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB) did not deny the report but declined to comment on what it called the nation's intelligence work, the paper said.
But any unethical practice, breach of regulations or illegal acts will be dealt with according to the law, the MIB was cited as saying. [Read more: ChinaPost/16October2011]
Russian Spies Using Canadian Passports Poses 'Troubling Threat': Documents. The Russian intelligence service's illegal use of the Canadian passport poses a "troubling threat" to the travel document's integrity, newly released federal memos warn.
Canada "strongly deplores" the exploitation of its passport by Russian agents to establish a spy ring in the United States, say the internal Foreign Affairs Department records.
But it seems Moscow's Cold War-style tactics, exposed last year by U.S. authorities, did little to chill relations with Ottawa.
In fact, the embassy of the Russian Federation said Canadian officials didn't even raise the matter.
"There was no fuss about that," said embassy spokesman Dmitry Avdeev. "I did not know anything about it." [Read more: TheGlobeandMail/18October2011]
CIA to Fuse Troops' Opinions in War Analysis. The CIA is giving the military a greater say in the debate over how the war in Afghanistan is going by allowing battlefield commanders to weigh into the analysis at early stages.
The move prompted a flurry of criticism in the intelligence community's old guard, worried the change presages a campaign by newly arrived general-turned-CIA director David Petraeus to improve the poor marks the CIA gave the war effort in its own analysis earlier this year.
But the change was requested by the current Afghanistan commander, Marine Gen. John Allen, and agreed to by the CIA Deputy Director Michael Morell, before Petraeus arrived at the agency.
"I saw it as strengthening the analysis, better informing the analytic process," Morell said in an interview with The Associated Press Friday.
Morell had been trying to find a way to narrow the gulf between the intelligence community's sometimes negative view of the war, versus the more hopeful one expressed by commanders in the fight, a senior intelligence official added, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.
The change affects how CIA analysts conduct their semi-annual review of every Afghan district to determine several factors, including who is in control - the Afghan government or the Taliban. The analysts used to brief their findings to the senior military commander in Kabul, who would then share them with his subordinates, to ask their opinion.
Now, the analysts will brief those battlefield commanders on their findings first. The commanders will have the option to point out something the CIA may have missed, in which case, the analyst can change the report - or choose to hold firm, and simply note the commander's disagreement.
"The change will in no way undermine the objectivity of CIA analysis in the war in Afghanistan," Morell said. "We will still call it like we see it but now with even better ground truth." [Read more: Dozier/AP/14October2011]
Begun, These Army Phone Wars Have. After 20 years, the Army has finally figured out how it wants to network soldiers together in a warzone: through something like a smartphone. It's called Nett Warrior, and it's got the Army very excited. There's only one problem: Defense companies already want to render it obsolete.
Defense giant ITT picked just the right time to roll out its new secure smartphone. It debuted what it's calling the GhostRider at the Army's annual Washington, D.C. gala, known as the Association of the U.S. Army (AUSA) convention. The GhostRider isn't really a phone - it's just hosted on a commercial Android smartphone, in this case a Motorola Atrix - it's a small encryption device, called a crypto, installed on a phone near the battery. Put it together with the smartphone of your choice and it's a secure phone - exactly what the Army wants to one day issue its soldiers, and is still figuring out how to do.
"It's called the GhostRider because the crypto is a ghost riding on the phone," explains ITT vice president Richard Takahashi. "Oh, we're fans of the comic books, too."
The idea is that the GhostRider's crypto can allow secure phone calls and text messages, transmitted over the Army's data networks, anywhere out in a warzone. A tap-and-hold of the smartphone's touchscreen turns the phone display red, to signal that the security features are engaged. Send another GhostRider user a secure text, and she'll be asked to enter a passcode before her phone can receive and decipher it. Its security standards have been certified by the crypto experts at the National Security Agency, ITT tells any visitor to its AUSA pavilion who'll listen.
That's for good reason. Figuring out how to secure data is a problem the Army is still grappling with as it figures out whether and how to equip its soldiers with smartphones. [Read more: Ackerman/Wired/10October2011]
Questions Linger Over Why CIA Operative Is at NYPD. Working inside the New York Police Department is one of the CIA's most experienced clandestine operatives. He arrived in July as the special assistant to the deputy commissioner of intelligence. While his title is clear, his job responsibilities are not.
Federal and city officials have offered differing explanations for why this top CIA officer was assigned to a municipal police department since The Associated Press revealed the assignment in August. The CIA is prohibited from spying domestically, and its unusual partnership with the NYPD has troubled top lawmakers and prompted an internal investigation.
The last time a CIA officer worked so closely with the NYPD, beginning in the months after the 9/11 attacks, he became the architect of aggressive police programs that monitored Muslim neighborhoods. With that earlier help from this CIA official, the police put entire communities under a microscope based on ethnicity rather than allegations of wrongdoing, according to the AP investigation.
It was an extraordinary collaboration that at times troubled some senior CIA officials and may have stretched the bounds of how the CIA is allowed to operate in the United States. [Read more: Goldman&Apuzzo/AP/17October2011]
It's Official! US Intelligence Community Is Moving To The Cloud! Today at the GEOINT 2011 Symposium in San Antonio, TX, Director of National Intelligence Jim Clapper told the almost 4000 attendees that the United States Intelligence Community will use cloud computing as a tool to meet aggressive budget reduction targets. As heard by my own ears and verified by AOL Defense:
"The biggest portion of those cuts, spread across 10 years, will come from anything labeled information technology....Cloud computing - while not a panacea - makes possible much of those savings."
Director National Security Agency and head of Cyber Command General Keith Alexander echoed the DNI's comment stating that NSA operations will move to the cloud by the end of this year.
"Moving to the cloud, will provide huge savings of 30 percent to 40 percent savings in the NSA's IT budget... Moving to the cloud enables better security in some respects, for example, because all systems receive all security patches at the same time. It also removes updating systems from the hands of a large number of humans, making it more certain they will happen."
In a separate interview with Defense News, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Director Letitia Long discussed one of the key components of the IC cloud computing strategy.
"Until recently, the community's long-term strategy group was called the Quad, for the Defense Intelligence Agency, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, National Reconnaissance Office and National Security Agency. The group was formed about four years ago to improve collaboration and avoid redundancy in the community." [Read more: Jackson/Forbes/17October2011]
U.S. Spy Chief Proposes Double-Digit Budget Cuts. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on Monday said he has proposed double-digit budget cuts in intelligence programs to the White House because "we're all going to have to give at the office."
Clapper said his office had "handed in our homework assignment" to the Office of Management and Budget, "and it calls for cuts in the double-digit range, with a B (for billion), over 10 years."
In February the DNI had requested $55 billion in appropriations for fiscal year 2012, which started October 1. Congress has not given final approval to any of the regular full-year spending bills and the government is being funded by short-term measures.
"We too in the IC (Intelligence Community) are going to contribute to reducing the deficit which itself poses a profound threat to national security," Clapper said.
The DNI oversees 17 intelligence agencies and only publicly releases an aggregate budget figure for intelligence programs without a breakdown for the different agencies.
Clapper did not give a precise percentage figure for the proposed cuts. Because of that and the secretive nature of the intelligence budget, it was unclear how much total savings over 10 years he was promising. [Read more: Zakaria/Reuters/17October2011]
Ruling Implies That Espionage Act Could Cover Unclassified Info. A court ruling that interpreted the term "national defense information" expansively to include unclassified, non-governmental information could open the door to a new series of anti-leak prosecutions under the Espionage Act, warned a petition that was filed in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals this week.
There is no statute that outlaws the mishandling of "classified information" generally. That term is not used in the Espionage Act (18 USC793), which instead prohibits the unauthorized disclosure and transmission of information "relating to the national defense." To fall within the scope of the Espionage Act, information must pertain to the national defense and, previous court rulings have explained, it must also have been "closely held by the United States government." In practice, this limitation has almost always meant that only classified U.S. government information can be subject to the Espionage Act.
But in the case of Dongfan Greg Chung, who was convicted on charges of economic espionage, a court ruled (and an appeals court last month upheld) that Chung would be sentenced under the guideline for "gathering national defense information" even though none of the information he handled was classified or even held by the government.
"For the first time in any reported case, the panel decision construes the phrase 'national defense information' [in the sentencing guideline] to include unclassified material produced by, and in the possession of, a nongovernmental entity," wrote attorney John D. Cline in an October 10 petition for rehearing. "If permitted to stand, the panel decision will dramatically expand the scope [of this sentencing guideline]."
Furthermore, "The decision logically extends to the parallel language (‘relating to the national defense') of [18 USC 793] as well, and it thus invites prosecutions under the Espionage Act for mishandling unclassified, nongovernment information, as long as that information has some bearing on the national defense and has not been made public," wrote Mr. Cline, an experienced litigator of national security cases. [Read more: Aftergood/SecrecyNews/14October2011]
University Studies Crowdsourcing For Intelligence. Maybe you've got a hunch Kim Jong Il's regime in North Korea has seen its final days, or that the Ebola virus will re-emerge somewhere in the world in the next year.
Your educated guess may be just as good as an expert's opinion. Statistics have long shown that large crowds of average people frequently make better predictions about unknown events, when their disparate guesses are averaged out, than any individual scholar - a phenomenon known as the wisdom of crowds.
Now the nation's intelligence community, with the help of university researchers and regular folks around the country, is studying ways to harness and improve the wisdom of crowds. The research could one day arm policymakers with information gathered by some of the same methods that power Wikipedia and social media.
In a project that is part competition and part research study, George Mason professors Charles Twardy and Kathryn Laskey are assembling a team on the Internet of more than 500 forecasters who make educated guesses about a series of world events, on everything from disease outbreaks to agricultural trends to political patterns. [Read more: Barakat/AP/18October2011]
Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE
After 50 Years, Villager can Finally
Talk about Cold War Project. Paul Petty's resume, which was updated last month, could easily be mistaken for the outline of a popular espionage novel.
For more than two decades Petty bypassed extracurricular activities in which many of his friends participated and worked hard at a job that brought him enormous pride.
It provided a sense of purpose.
It gave him an opportunity to serve his country.
But he couldn't talk about it.
In fact, he recalls "being a little envious" of former classmates who were able to speak about their accomplishments at a class reunion he attended.
"I just sat there like a bump on a log," he said of his inability to share his noteworthy achievements.
That changed on Sept. 17, 2011, when the National Reconnaissance Office declassified the Cold War-era programs Gambit and Hexagon. [Read more: Greene/VillagesDailySun/10October2011]
Nazi Criminal Rademacher Spied for West Germany. A wiretap operation conducted by the CIA against the BND, West Germany's foreign intelligence service, in the early 1960s revealed that the BND employed a senior Nazi war criminal, Franz Rademacher, to spy for it in Syria, CIA records show. Rademacher, a foreign ministry official during the war, submitted a notorious travel expense claim in 1941 - 'Liquidation of Jews in Belgrade.'
A man named Franz Rademacher submitted what is likely the most notorious travel expense claim in world history. Rademacher, a division head in the German foreign ministry during World War II, traveled to Belgrade in October 1941 at the request of the local foreign ministry representative who was asking for the city's Jews to be deported.
Rademacher wanted to see whether the so-called problem "could be resolved on site." With both the SS and the Wehrmacht pushing to kill Jews, all sides quickly reached an agreement to shoot 1,300 Jewish residents. Upon his return, Rademacher filed a travel expense claim citing the reason for his trip as: "Liquidation of Jews in Belgrade."
Although experts were long aware of the document, it drew a great deal of attention last year, when a commission of historians, addressing the history of the foreign ministry during the Nazi years and the decades after the war, featured that travel expense report prominently. Horrified, Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle declared the document proof that the ministry had allowed its employees to "claim murder as a business expense." [Read more: Spiegel/12October2011]
The Obscure Government Agency Trying to Predict the Future. Whether you realize it or not, you're probably helping the government predict the future right now. From the websites you visit to the tweets you send, you and every other internet user leave behind a wake of data that's kept researchers busy looking for patterns. The potential has also captivated an obscure and relatively new government intelligence agency known as the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA).
Formed in 2007 and falling under the jurisdiction of the national director of intelligence, Iarpa is the sister organization of DARPA, the crazy futurists at the Defense Department that invented the internet, and boasts some similarly sci-fi-like ambitions. Indeed, IARPA, which has the ominous slogan "BE THE FUTURE," does not meddle in mild-mannered research goals either. According to the agency's website, it only "invests in high-risk/high-payoff research programs that have the potential to provide our nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage over future adversaries." So far the details of some on-going IARPA projects are fairly vague but also fascinating. [Read more: TheAtlantic/12October2011]
From a Former Spy, a Plea for Peace in Turkey. On a recent stroll through the crumbling cell blocks of Ulucanlar Prison, the former deputy chief of Turkey's leading spy agency paused in front of exhibits displaying the instruments of cruelty used by security forces in previous years.
The notorious former jail is now a museum honoring the political dissidents who suffered within its walls, and Cevat Ones says he felt regret as he listened to audio recordings of inmates screaming in agony. "It was like the face of the state itself, seeing yourself in the past," he said.
Turkish spies do not usually speak about their feelings this way. They rarely say anything, and most agents would never dream of sitting down with a journalist. [Read more: Smith/TheGlobeandMail/18October2011]
Tour of Duty: Fred Engeler Recalls Work in Korean War-Era Intelligence. Fred Engeler Jr., 79, of Mountain Home, has given much of his life to the business of knowing who's telling the truth and nothing but the truth.
He was Mountain Home's municipal judge for 16 years ending in 1981. Before that he was Mountain Home City Attorney.
But he believes he did his best work for his country during two years ending Nov. 8, 1954.
He was one in a team of 30 U.S. Air Force interrogation technicians at work to erase a U.S. intelligence deficit with Russia, then a communist nation that had demonstrated in Korea a willingness to fight the U.S. in proxy warfare around the globe.
Engeler brought a mastery of the Russian language to the work. Nearly all of North Korea's air force was Russian-made, Russian-piloted and Russian-directed, Engeler says. But the so-called Red Scare stretched far beyond Korea. [Read more: Wallace/BasterBulletin/17October2011]
At Memorial for Iran-contra Figure Clair George, CIA Colleagues' Loyalty Endures. One by one, the aging Cold War operatives ambled into St. Alban's Parish late last week. In walked a former CIA director. Sitting on the right, the agency's ex-operations chief in Afghanistan. Somewhere else, an ex-Latin America division chief.
As the organ began playing, the 300-plus attendees read their programs. The words on the cover laid out the ritual at hand, but they also symbolized an era's completion: "In Thanksgiving and in Celebration of the Life of Clair E. George."
And then, the ex-spies prayed. They bowed their heads in honor of one of their own: a man whose life story reveals the peculiar risks that faced CIA officers in the second half of the 20th century as the interplay between politics and patriotic duty became increasingly overt.
Clair George, who died in August from cardiac arrest at 81, has a rare status in CIA lore. He was the first high-ranking agency official to be found guilty of felony charges while carrying out official duties. Despite the public outrage about CIA actions, George remained a popular figure among agency alumni because they believe his loyalty - to them and to his country - never faltered.
George's career, which began exactly 56 years ago on Oct. 17, 1955, encapsulated an era in which the CIA focused on the professional trade of espionage and less on the covert, paramilitary action dominating the agency today. He was a spy's spy, or more precisely, a working man's spy. Collecting intelligence. Meeting people late at night. And above all, recruiting foreign nationals to spy for the United States.
A 32-year company veteran, George took pride in his rise from a small Pennsylvania steel town to a top perch in an agency full of Ivy Leaguers. By the mid-1980s, he became deputy director of operations, in charge of the CIA's global network of spies. Though paramilitary action did not excite him, George supported a team that supplied Afghan rebels with heat-seeking Stinger missiles to fight the Soviets - the deal made famous in the movie "Charlie Wilson's War." Ultimately, George was forced to retire for his role in the Iran-contra scandal. He was indicted, found guilty, and thanks only to a presidential pardon, was spared a prison sentence.
At St. Alban's, the old guard stood up for their old spymaster, viewing him as an apolitical agency man who was unfairly dragged into politics at the end of his career. [Read more: Shapira/WashingtonPost/16October2011]
10 Technologies the U.S. Military Will Need For the Next War. Throughout U.S. history, advances in military capability have been fueled by innovation. All branches of the military consistently have managed to use technology in new and creative ways to gain an edge over the enemy.
The wars of the past decade exposed an "innovation gap" that forced the U.S. military to play catch up, and react to enemy tactics - such as roadside bombs and sniper attacks - rather than anticipating them. The Defense Department's research-and-development apparatus was slow to respond with new and improved weapons based on changing threats. Critics have called for the Pentagon to stop wasting money on science projects that target undefined hypothetical future wars, focus on systems that they know deployed forces need, and to move them to the field in weeks or months, not years or decades. Innovation is not helpful if it's not assisting troops at war. As many senior Pentagon officials have noted, an 80-percent solution that can be available in months is better than a perfect outcome that could take years or decades to achieve.
In this special report, National Defense identifies 10 key technologies that U.S. forces likely will need to fight the next war. Regardless of where or when that conflict might be, there is widespread consensus that advances in certain key areas would benefit U.S. forces.
Examples are faster and quieter helicopters, advanced crowd-control weapons, lighter infantry equipment that doesn't overburden troops, ultra-light trucks and better battlefield communications. In the maritime realm, Navy leaders have for years been seeking stealthy mini-submarines that can be remotely operated, and fast bulletproof power boats for anti-piracy and coastal security operations.
Accurate intelligence about the enemy is always on the military's wish list, and success in future conflicts will require technologies that can perform persistent surveillance to help identify enemies and friendly forces. Robots that can operate autonomously also will be essential tools of war, not necessarily to fire weapons, but to conduct mundane tasks such as delivering cargo.
Also on the wish list is renewable energy that reduces the military's dependence on fuel supplies. Transporting fuel to war zones has become one of the most dangerous missions because enemies know that it is the lifeblood of the U.S. military machine. Almost anything that helps reduce that demand is likely to be welcome.
The list of 10 technologies that follows is in no particular ranking order. [Read more: Beidel&Erwin&Magnuson/NDIA/November2011]
Section III - COMMENTARY
To Keep America Safe We Must Address Our Intelligence Failures In Iran. Revelations that Iranian agents plotted an alleged attack to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the United States and blow up the embassies of Israel and Saudi Arabia in the heart of Washington should have surprised neither analysts nor journalists. The only thing certain about the Islamic Republic, after all, is its uncertainty.
More than 30 years after the Islamic Revolution, Iran remains a black hole for American analysts. The unknowns regarding Iranian command, control, and capabilities represent an intelligence failure the likes of which make the Central intelligence Agency's 2002 false findings regarding Iraq weapons of mass destruction program look like small potatoes.
The first hint about the scope of America's Iran intelligence woes came in 2005, shortly after the relatively unknown Mahmoud Ahmadinejad surprised analysts by becoming Iran's president.
Almost immediately, a debate erupted about whether Ahmadinejad had been among the hostage-takers who seized the American embassy in 1979. The debate indicated an intelligence failure, not only about Ahmadinejad, but also about why, after more than a quarter century, the CIA has not parsed every single photograph of the embassy captors to determine the identity of each. [Read more: Ruben/FoxNews/12October2011]
Those Fevered Imaginations . . .Yesterday, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence chair Diane Feinstein, appeared on Fox News Sunday to explain that the Obama administration has solid proof Iran was plotting to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States in Washington. The case, said Feinstein, is "dead bang" and the signals intelligence is among the most "compelling" evidence.
Nonetheless, Feinstein's statements probably won't do much to soothe the fevered imagination of those who think there's something wrong with the story. A number of this country's most vocal Iran experts, who are former members of the American intelligence community, have expressed their disbelief and apparently won't be changing their tune anytime soon.
Some, like onetime CIA analyst Flynt Leverett, believe it is "wholly implausible" the Iranians would plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Leverett of course is used to making the Islamic Republic's case to American audiences. An indefatigable advocate of engagement with a regime that has been at war with America for thirty years, Leverett was recently seen traveling in the entourage of the Iranian foreign minister, Ali Akbar Salehi, when the Iranian official was hosted last month at a Council on Foreign Relations cocktail reception.
But unlike Leverett, the most notable skeptics among former intelligence officers are not known for carrying Iran's water, like three onetime CIA employees.
The story of the plot, according to Bruce Riedel, a CIA veteran who was also in charge of the Near East and South Asia on the White House NSC staff in the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations, is "[f]ishy, fishy, fishy.'' Paul Pillar, a former CIA hand who, as Stephen F. Hayes wrote in February 2006, accused the Bush White House of "'misusing' intelligence to take the country to war in Iraq," is now charging another administration with politicizing intelligence. He sees this story as the Obama White House's ploy to disarm critics who are hawkish on Iran. "They're in a re-election mode and making sure that they sound ... tough on Iran," said Pillar. "It just gives additional red meat for those who would like to push us toward even more confrontation, especially in the use of military force."
Robert Baer is yet another onetime CIA officer who thinks it's unlikely that the Revolutionary Guards and its external operations unit, the Quds Force, were behind the plot. "I don't think it's credible," said Baer. "This doesn't fit their modus operandi at all. It's completely out of character, they're much better than this. They wouldn't be sending money through an American bank, they wouldn't be going to the cartels in Mexico to do this. It's just not the way they work."
In effect, these onetime intelligence officers are claiming that their former colleagues in the law enforcement and intelligence communities got this one badly wrong. Because of that misguided work, the president was put in a situation where he presented evidence that the Iranian government at the highest levels must be held accountable. In other words, Riedel, Pillar, and Baer and are saying that their former colleagues risked dragging the U.S. into war on the basis of bad intelligence.
If that is the case, the incompetence of the intelligence and law enforcement communities is breathtaking. Accordingly, it would be useful if these former intelligence officers who doubt the veracity of this account further explain why they have so little confidence in their former colleagues and what steps should be taken to reform the intelligence and law enforcement professions.
On the other hand, it is also possible that Riedel, Pillar, and Baer are simply using their former affiliation with the CIA to advance their civilian careers, and are scarcely concerned with casting doubt on the work of their former colleagues. If that is the case, we can be thankful that the security of the United States and its citizens, as well as its allies, are no longer entrusted to them—but are rather in the hands of the men and women of the DEA, FBI, and CIA who disrupted this plot before American lives were lost. [Read more: Smith/TheWeeklyStandard/17October2011]
A New Pakistan Policy: Containment. America needs a new policy for dealing with Pakistan. First, we must recognize that the two countries' strategic interests are in conflict, not harmony, and will remain that way as long as Pakistan's army controls Pakistan's strategic policies. We must contain the Pakistani Army's ambitions until real civilian rule returns and Pakistanis set a new direction for their foreign policy.
As Adm. Mike Mullen, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Senate committee last month, Pakistan provides critical sanctuary and support to the Afghan insurgency that we are trying to suppress. Taliban leaders meet under Pakistani protection even as we try to capture or kill them.
In 2009, I led a policy review for President Obama on Pakistan and Afghanistan. At the time, Al Qaeda was operating with virtual impunity in Pakistan, and its ally Lashkar-e-Taiba had just attacked the Indian city of Mumbai and killed at least 163 people, including 6 Americans, with help from Pakistani intelligence. Under no illusions, Mr. Obama tried to improve relations with Pakistan by increasing aid and dialogue; he also expanded drone operations to fight terrorist groups that Pakistan would not fight on its own.
It was right to try engagement, but now the approach needs reshaping. We will have to persevere in Afghanistan in the face of opposition by Pakistan.
The generals who run Pakistan have not abandoned their obsession with challenging India. They tolerate terrorists at home, seek a Taliban victory in Afghanistan and are building the world's fastest-growing nuclear arsenal. They have sidelined and intimidated civilian leaders elected in 2008. They seem to think Pakistan is invulnerable, because they control NATO's supply line from Karachi to Kabul and have nuclear weapons.
The generals also think time is on their side - that NATO is doomed to give up in Afghanistan, leaving them free to act as they wish there. So they have concluded that the sooner America leaves, the better it will be for Pakistan. They want Americans and Europeans to believe the war is hopeless, so they encourage the Taliban and other militant groups to speed the withdrawal with spectacular attacks, like the Sept. 13 raid on the United States Embassy in Kabul, which killed 16 Afghan police officers and civilians.
It is time to move to a policy of containment, which would mean a more hostile relationship. But it should be a focused hostility, aimed not at hurting Pakistan's people but at holding its army and intelligence branches accountable. When we learn that an officer from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI, is aiding terrorism, whether in Afghanistan or India, we should put him on wanted lists, sanction him at the United Nations and, if he is dangerous enough, track him down. Putting sanctions on organizations in Pakistan has not worked in the past, but sanctioning individuals has - as the nuclear proliferator Abdul Qadeer Khan could attest. [Read more: Riedel/NYTimes/14October2011]
Cyber Intelligence Must Drive Cyber Operations. New domains of conflict come with new requirements for new operational models driven by intelligence, and the cyber domain is no exception.
In this new domain, we have to worry about not only nation-states but also activists, extremists and rogue lone-wolf actors.
The challenges of the cyber domain of conflict require new sources of intelligence on an unprecedented scale. Couple this with the fact that the speed of technology evolution and the innovation we see in cyberattacks, and you can easily see why we need to continuously develop a robust cyber intelligence capability. We are now in the early stages of cyber intelligence trade craft development, cyber warfare training, and cyber intelligence collection and analysis.
Gathering cyber intelligence is in some ways easier and in other ways much more difficult than collecting intelligence in the physical world. For example, satellite surveillance offers little value — cyber weapons development requires very little infrastructure and what little it does require is indistinguishable from what businesses or even consumers require.
Cyber intelligence must answer these questions:
What are the essential cyber intelligence sources?
What are the offensive capabilities of our adversaries?
What are the defensive capabilities of our adversaries?
What future cyber capabilities are planned for military and industry technologies?
What cyber capabilities are currently in development for military and industry technologies?
The answers to these questions are essential for cybersecurity of any nation. Many are quick to compare our current cyber situation to that of the Cold War. Although I was too young to really pay attention to the Cold War, from what I have read, I think this is a very bad idea. Conflict in the cyber domain and the associated cyber weaponry differ greatly from that of the Cold War. I am of the opinion that we need to develop different mental models for cyber conflict if we are to maintain operational supremacy in the domain, and that requires significant attention to cyber intelligence. [Read more: Coleman/DefenseSystems/13October2011]
Section IV - Obituaries, Books and Coming Events
James (Jim) McElroy. James (Jim) McElroy, 72, Gate City, VA passed away Wednesday, October 12, 2011.
He was born in Norton, VA on February 25, 1939, the son of the late Lester and Paralee Hill McElroy.
Jim moved to Gate City in 1950. He was a Shoemaker High School graduate and attended Fork Union Military Academy on a football scholarship playing for two years and becoming captain in his final year. Upon graduating from Fork Union Military Academy in 1958, he attended the University of Mississippi, also on a football scholarship, before entering the United State Army during the Vietnam War. He became a paratrooper, a Ranger, and a Green Beret having served with distinction. [Read more: GateCityFuneralHome/12October2011]
America the Vulnerable: Inside the New Threat Matrix of Digital Espionage, Crime, and Warfare. A former top-level National Security Agency insider goes behind the headlines to explore America's next great battleground: digital security. An urgent wake-up call that identifies our foes; unveils their methods; and charts the dire consequences for government, business, and individuals.
Shortly after 9/11, Joel Brenner entered the inner sanctum of American espionage, first as the inspector general of the National Security Agency, then as the head of counterintelligence for the director of national intelligence. He saw at close range the battleground on which our adversaries are now attacking us-cyberspace. We are at the mercy of a new generation of spies who operate remotely from China, the Middle East, Russia, even France, among many other places. These operatives have already shown their ability to penetrate our power plants, steal our latest submarine technology, rob our banks, and invade the Pentagon's secret communications systems.
Incidents like the WikiLeaks posting of secret U.S. State Department cables hint at the urgency of this problem, but they hardly reveal its extent or its danger. Our government and corporations are a "glass house," all but transparent to our adversaries. Counterfeit computer chips have found their way into our fighter aircraft; the Chinese stole a new radar system that the navy spent billions to develop; our own soldiers used intentionally corrupted thumb drives to download classified intel from laptops in Iraq. And much more.
Dispatches from the corporate world are just as dire. In 2008, hackers lifted customer files from the Royal Bank of Scotland and used them to withdraw $9 million in half an hour from ATMs in the United States, Britain, and Canada. If that was a traditional heist, it would be counted as one of the largest in history. Worldwide, corporations lose on average $5 million worth of intellectual property apiece annually, and big companies lose many times that.
The structure and culture of the Internet favor spies over governments and corporations, and hackers over privacy, and we've done little to alter that balance. Brenner draws on his extraordinary background to show how to right this imbalance and bring to cyberspace the freedom, accountability, and security we expect elsewhere in our lives.
In America the Vulnerable, Brenner offers a chilling and revelatory appraisal of the new faces of war and espionage-virtual battles with dangerous implications for government, business, and all of us. [Read more: Penguin/October2011]
Coming Educational Events
EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....
MANY Spy Museum Events in October, November, and beyond, with full details are listed on the AFIO Website at www.afio.com. The titles for some of these are in detail below and online.
Thursday, 20 October 2011, noon - Washington, DC - A Vast and Fiendish Plot: The Confederate Attack on New York City - at the International Spy Museum
Ballroom to Battlefield Civil War Program
In 1864, Manhattan had a population of 880,000…a population that came perilously close to death on the evening of 25 November. Six Confederate saboteurs planned to destroy the North’s largest city with a string of 21 separate fires set simultaneously with the goal of engulfing the city in flames. This terrorist plot was the brainchild of the Confederate Secret Service. They had hoped to target a number of northern cities including Boston, Chicago, and Cincinnati to show how easily the Confederacy could strike at Federal cities. Clint Johnson, author of A Vast and Fiendish Plot, will explore this little-known plan for sabotage, explain its links to Canada, and reveal why the saboteurs ultimately failed. Johnson will also speculate on how the saboteurs could have accomplished what would have been the worst terrorist attack in American history.
Tickets: Free. No registration required. More information at www.spymuseum.org
Wednesday, 26 October 2011, noon - Washington, DC - MH/CHAOS: The CIA's Campaign Against the Radical Left and the Black Panthers
Operation MHCHAOS was the code name for a secret domestic spying
program conducted by the Central Intelligence Agency in the late 1960s
and early 1970s charged with unmasking any foreign influences on the
student antiwar movement. CIA counterintelligence officer Frank Rafalko was a part of the operation. The New York Times revealed MHCHAOS in 1974, then Congress investigated, and MHCHAOS took
its place in the pantheon of intelligence abuses. Rafalko, however,
says in MH/CHAOS that the operation was justified and that the CIA was
the logical agency to conduct it. He’ll defend his perspective with
dramatic intelligence collected on the New Left and black radicals.
Tickets: Free. No registration required. More information at www.spymuseum.org
26 October 2011, 3 pm – Center Valley, PA – DeSales University National Security Program hosts Dr. William Nolte on “The Prospects of the Intelligence Community in the Face of Budget Reductions.”Dr. William Nolte currently serves as Research Professor and Director, Programs for Intelligence Research and Education, School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland. During his 30-year career in the intelligence community Dr. Nolte held a number of senior positions, including Director of Education and Training in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and Chancellor of the National Intelligence University. Also he was an Assistant Deputy Director of National Intelligence and Deputy Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production. While at the National Security Agency he was Director of Training, Chief of Legislative Affairs, and Senior Intelligence Advisor to the Director of Signals Intelligence. The event takes place in the Hurd Room in the DeSales University Center on the DeSales University Campus (2755 Station Avenue, Center Valley, PA 18034). For questions please email Dr. Andrew Essig at Andrew.Essig@desales.edu or call 610-282-1100 x1632. No RSVP is required. This event in open to the public and free of charge
Thursday, 27 October 2011 - Washington, DC - CIA Historical Collections Division Conference: "A City Torn Apart; Building the Berlin Wall - 1961"
The Berlin Crisis of 1961 - "Building the Wall, From Vienna to Checkpoint Charlie" - Date: Thursday October 27, 2011, Location: McGowan Theater, National Archives Building, Washington DC; Time: 9:00am to 12:00pm
The National Declassification Center at the National Archives, in partnership with the Historical Review Program of the CIA, will be a hosting a one-day conference to mark the anniversary of the Berlin Crisis of 1961. October 27th, 2011 is the 50th anniversary of the American/Soviet showdown at Checkpoint Charlie. At the McGowan theater at the Archives building in downtown Washington, D.C. a panel of distinguished historians will present topics such as "How the East German Leadership Persuaded the Reluctant Soviets to Build the Berlin Wall", "Events and Decisions Leading Up to the Building of the Berlin Wall - The East German Perspective" and "The U.S. Military Response to the 1960-62 Berlin Crisis." The last person to cross the Potsdamer Platz in a car as the Wall was being erected, Dr. William R. Smyser, will be sharing his personal recollections of the Crisis.
A publication of newly released declassified documents will accompany the event. Documents include intelligence reports, U.S. Army and NATO contingency plans, memoranda, photographs and maps of the earliest stages of the Berlin Wall, and a contemporary 600-page State Department analysis covering the situation in Berlin from 1958-1962.Scheduled Speakers: Archivist of the United States, David Ferriero
27 October 2011, 0930- 1715 - Newport News - AFIO Norman Forde Hampton Roads Chapter Third Annual Workshop on National Security and Intelligence: Energy Security
Location: Christopher Newport University, David Student Union, Newport News, Tabb Library, York County. Directions: From Norfolk take I-64 West. Merge onto US-17 North via Exit 258B toward Yorktown. Follow US-17 North approximately 2.2 miles to Victory Blvd/VA-171 East. Turn right onto Victory Blvd/VA-171 East. Turn right at the next traffic light onto Hampton Hwy/VA-134 South. Turn right at the next traffic light onto Long Green Blvd. Tabb Library is on the immediate right. It is across the street from the Victory YMCA. From Williamsburg take I-64 East. Merge onto Victory Blvd/VA-171 East via Exit 256B. Follow Victory Blvd/VA-171 East approximately 2 miles. Turn right onto Hampton Hwy/VA-134 South. Turn right at the next traffic light onto Long Green Blvd. Tabb Library is on the immediate right. It is across the street from the Victory YMCA. Registrations and questions to Melissa Saunders firstname.lastname@example.org or call 757-897-6268.
2011, 12:30 - 2:30 pm - Los Angeles, CA - The AFIO Los Angeles Area
Chapter meeting features Dan Caldwell on "Vortex of Conflict: US Policy
Towards Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq."
This is not a luncheon; it is a meeting, only. Plan to eat before or after event.
The guest speaker will be Dan Caldwell, Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Pepperdine University and the author of "Vortex of Conflict: U.S. Policy toward Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq" (Stanford University Press, 2011). Professor Caldwell will be addressing the findings of his book.
Location: Room 35 at LMU [Loyola Marymount University].
RSVP AFIO_LA@yahoo.com to attend.
2-3 November 2-11 - Buckley AFB, Aurora, CO - DNI hosts 2011 Intelink Technical Exchange.
The ITE [Intelink Technical Exchange] brings together practitioners and technologists from the intelligence, national defense, homeland security, and law enforcement communities working to improve intelligence information sharing. The ITE is open to government employees and contractors. AFIO members may attend but need to show AFIO ID.
CALL FOR PAPERS: If you wish to present at the ITE, send your abstracts by September 15, 2011 to ITE@ugov.gov Your topic should describe substantive technical work area relevant to the National Security Enterprise, our information environment, or the business of intelligence.
Contact ITE@ugov.gov for additional information
Wednesday, 02 November 2011 12:30 - 5:30 PM - Simi Valley, CA - CIA Document Release Event at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation & Library, Simi Valley, California
Ronald Reagan, Intelligence, and the End of the Cold War will feature high-level former policymakers, intelligence practitioners, and analysts discussing how the Reagan Administration used intelligence in making policies to end the Cold War. The CIA is releasing a collection of more than 200 declassified documents, including intelligence assessments, high-level memos, and briefing materials provided to the Administration during this period. Also included are never-before-seen video briefings prepared by the CIA’s Directorate of Intelligence and delivered to policymakers on such varied topics as the Soviet space program, the Andropov succession, the Chernobyl disaster, and the Moscow summit. This event is free to attend, however reservations are required.
Featured guest speakers include Kenneth Adelman, Former Director, Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and Oleg Kalugin, Former Major General in the Soviet KGB.
Panelists include: Peter Clement, CIA Deputy Director for Intelligence for Analytic Programs; Douglas MacEachin, Former CIA Deputy Director of Intelligence; Admiral Bobby Inman, Former CIA Deputy Director; Martin Anderson, Former Advisor to President Reagan; Gregory Treverton, Director, RAND Center for Global Risk and Security; David Holloway, Stanford University; Mary Sarotte, University of Southern California; Bruce D. Berkowitz, Author; Dr. Nicholas Dujmovic, CIA Historian; and David Lodge, CIA Analyst.
Location: The Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, 40 Presidential Dr, Simi Valley, CA 93065
Click here to make reservations. For more information, please call 805-577-4141 or visit this link. There is no fee to attend.
Saturday, 12 November 2011, 11 am - 3 pm - Orange Park, FL - AFIO North Florida meeting features Col Will Merrill, speaking on Heroes of 9/11.
This meeting’s special guest and speaker will be Colonel Will G. Merrill, Jr., U.S. Army (Retired) who was to have spoken at our cancelled August meeting. A native of Ashland, Wisconsin, he graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point in the Class of 1958. He will be speaking about his many and diverse Army experiences, and has recently authored a book on the Heros of 9/11.
Cost: $16 pp.
RSVP and inquiries to: email@example.com
Tuesday, 15 November 2011, Noon to 1 pm - Washington, DC - "Uncompromised: The Rise, Fall, and Redemption of an Arab American Patriot in the CIA" - Nada Prouty speaks at the Spy Museum
After a childhood in war-torn Lebanon with an abusive father and facing the prospect of an arranged marriage, Nada Prouty jumped at the chance to forge her own path in America, a path that led to undercover work in the FBI, then the CIA. She worked quietly and professionally behind the scenes of some of the most high-profile cases in recent history, including the hunt for Saddam Hussein and the bombing of the USS Cole. Her work earned her great respect from her colleagues but her promising career came to an end in the wake of 9/11. At the height of anti-Arab fervor, federal investigators charged Prouty with passing intelligence to Hezbollah. Lacking sufficient evidence to make their case in court, prosecutors went to the media, suggesting that she had committed treason. Prouty, dubbed “Jihad Jane” by the New York Post and castigated in the blogosphere, was quickly cast as a terrorist mastermind by the relentless 24-hour news cycle. Though the CIA and a federal judge eventually exonerated Prouty of all charges, she was dismissed from the agency and stripped of her citizenship. In Uncompromised, Prouty tells her story in a bid to restore her name and reputation.
Tickets: Free. No registration required. Directions and more information available at: www.spymuseum.org
Tuesday, 15 November 2011, Noon - 1 p.m. - Washington, DC - The Vietnam War From The Rear Echelon: An Intelligence Officer's Memoir, 1972-1973 - at the International Spy Museum
Military intelligence officer Timothy Lomperis served in the headquarters of Military Assistance Command, Vietnam (MACV) during some of the most dramatic days of the Vietnam War: the 1972 North Vietnamese Easter Offensive, the Christmas Bombings and the Paris Peace Talks. He and his comrades were deeply involved in trying to devise and implement military strategies while caught between the political imperatives of Washington and the deteriorating military situation on the ground. In his new book, Lomperis assesses the strengths and weaknesses of American intelligence in Vietnam and details the intense debates over the use and targeting of the prime U.S. weapon remaining in the war, the notorious B-52 bomber. He will discuss his participation in a secret mission designed to end the war until it was thwarted by a shocking interruption and his own gradual disillusionment that ultimately resolved itself into peaceful reconciliation.
Tickets: Free. No registration required. For more information visit www.spymuseum.org
Tuesday, 15 November 2011, 5:30 - 8:30 pm - Washington, DC - CIA Officer/author Richard Holm [The Craft We Chose: My Life in the CIA], many others, at The National Press Club's Book Fair & Author's Night
A large number of authors will be present at the annual NPC Book Fair held in the club's ballroom, 13th floor of the National Press Building, 14th and F Sts NW in Washington. Admission is free to club members and $5.00 for non-members. All are welcome, and all proceeds benefit the club's library and journalism programs.
Among the 80 authors selected to sign books and meet attendees, in addition to Dick Holm with "The Craft We Chose: My Life in the CIA"; will be Nada Prouty with her "Uncompromised: The Rise, Fall, and Redemption of an Arab American Patriot in the CIA"; and Ronald Kessler with his "The Secrets of the FBI"; Pamela Constable with "Playing with Fire: Pakistan at War with Itself"; and Joby Warrick with his chilling account of "The Triple Agent: The al-Qaeda Mole Who Infiltrated the CIA."
More info at: http://press.org/library/book-fair/authors-and-books.
Attendance is only $5 for a serious book feast.
Thursday, 17 November 2011, 11:30 am Colorado Springs, CO – The Rocky Mountain Chapter presents Sheriff Terry Maketa speaking about his official visits to Israel and Trinidad. This should be an interesting talk as El Paso County Sheriff’s rarely travel this far from home. Dick Durham will lead the meeting as the President will be in London on his own fact finding and gathering mission. To be held at a new location, The Inn at Palmer Divide, 443 S. Highway 105 Palmer Lake, CO, Exit 161 westbound off I-25, West on Highway 105. Please RSVP to Tom VanWormer at firstname.lastname@example.org
17 November 2011 - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter hosts Richard W. Held, former Special Agent in Charge, San Francisco Division, Federal Bureau of Investigation. Topic: The Cyber Threat: Changing the Nature of Future Conflict.
11:30AM no host cocktails; noon - luncheon. $25 member rate with advance reservation and payment; $35 non-members accompanied by a member. No walk-ins allowed. Seating is limited. E-mail RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi (please indicate meat or fish) no later than October 29, 2011 at email@example.com and mail a check made out to "AFIO" to: Mariko Kawaguchi, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011
Friday, 18 November 2011, 4:30 pm - Washington, DC - STALIN’S SPIES: FROM PARIS TO THE GULAG at the International Spy Museum
The Soviet Union’s very own James Bond, Dimitri Bystrolyotov, was one of the greatest Soviet Spies of all time. Dimitri was a sailor, doctor, lawyer and artist recruited by Stalin for his dashing good looks and ease with languages to seduce secrets from willing targets during the 1920s and 30s. However, after falling out of Stalin’s favor, Dimitri was sentenced to the Gulag for 16 years. In this behind-the-scenes event you will see powerful artifacts from Bystrolyotov’s life in the Gulag donated by his family, meet the Museum’s Historian and Collections Manager, and hear from a panel of top experts on the subject of Stalin’s spies: Prof. Emil Draitser, author of Stalin’s Romeo Spy, on Bystrolyotov; journalist and author Stephen Schwartz on NKVD Recruitment of intellectuals; and Prof. Susan Weissman on Marc Zborowski, who spied on Trotskyites in France and the United States. Finally, hear commentary from Peter Katel of Congressional Quarterly who will recount his parents’ encounter with one of these spies. This special afternoon concludes as speakers, staff, and guests continue the discussion over drinks with complementary light appetizers just around the corner at Riot Act Comedy Theater.
Tickets: Free. Space is limited. Register online at www.spymuseum.org
19 November 2011 - Melbourne, FL - The AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter luncheon features Gen John Cleland on "Radical Islam."
Major General John Cleland (Ret.) speaks on "Radical Islam." Lunch will be at the Eau Gallie Yacht Club. For further information, contact Donna Czarnecki at firstname.lastname@example.org.
30 November - 1 December 2011 - Fairfax, VA - NMIA Fall 2011 National Intelligence Symposium
The theme of this event is: "Intelligence / Information For Small Unit Operations". Small units have been and may increasingly be the foremost U.S. National Security direct action tool. Taking down high-profile terrorists, conducting counterinsurgency engagements, SWAT Team deployments, first responders and fighting fires - - small units have unique and dynamic intelligence / information needs. Yet while they are at the pointy-end of the spear; they are also at the end of the last mile. What do they need? Are they getting it? How can it be improved? The NMIA Symposium features an array of distinguished experts; let by the invited Keynote, LTG Michael Flynn, US Army; who recently led U.S. intelligence efforts in Afghanistan. Location: Northrup Grumman, Fairfax, Virginia
Register at https://nmia.site-ym.com/events/register.asp?id=186505
Thursday, 8 December 2011, 10:30 am - 2 pm - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO Winter Luncheon - Speaker: John D. Bennett, Director, National Clandestine Service, CIA and morning speaker TBA
Speaker: John D. Bennett, Director, National Clandestine Service, CIA, OFF THE RECORD, and morning speaker TBA. Location: Crowne Plaza, Tysons Corner, VA Register here.
8 December 2011, 6 - 9 pm - New York, NY - The AFIO NY Metro Chapter meeting features Jim Rasenberger on "The Brilliant Disaster: JFK, Castro, and America's Doomed Invasion of Cuba's Bay of Pigs"
Jim Rasenberger, Author: "THE BRILLIANT DISASTER: JFK, CASTRO AND AMERICA'S DOOMED INVASION OF CUBA'S BAY OF PIGS" April 17, 1961 "How could we have been so stupid" remarked one administration official. Did this "doomed invasion" contribute to the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War and the assassination of President Kennedy? LOCATION: "3 West Club" 3 West 51st Street, Manhattan.
6:00 PM Registration 6:30 PM Meeting Start Please Note this Time Change from our usual start. Buffet Dinner Cash Bar COST: $40/person. Cash or Check, payable at the door only.
REGISTER: Strongly suggested, not required. Seating is limited.
Email: email@example.com or telephone Jerry Goodwin 347-334-1503.
For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events
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