AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #07-12 dated 21 February 2012

[Editors' Note: The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.]
If you are having difficulties with the links or viewing this newsletter when it arrives by email, members may view the latest edition each week at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm You will need your LOGIN NAME and your PASSWORD.
REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs, click here:

CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV -   Books, Obituaries and Coming Events

Books and Magazines

Obituaries

Coming Educational Events

Current Calendar New and/or Next Two Months ONLY

CALL FOR PAPERS: Call for Papers and Presentations for London Conference - "Understanding and Improving Intelligence Analysis: Learning from other Disciplines" - an event to be held 8 June and 13 July 2012 at Brunel University in Uxbridge, West London, UK

Apply NOW to Attend...
AFIO 2012 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SYMPOSIUM
at the HQs of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence,
and at the HQs of the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Applications are now open for this special 3-day April event. Read the instructions carefully since space is limited and participation in this event is being handled NOT on a first-come/first-serve system
but using a lottery.
The online application to attend is here.
To use a 1-page printed version, access the pdf here.
Tentative Agenda is here.

26-28 April 2012 - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National holds the 2012 National Intelligence Symposium at two agency headquarters: The Office of Director of National Intelligence, and at the headquarters of the Defense Intelligence Agency. The Director of National Intelligence James Clapper will be hosting us at Liberty Crossing on Thursday, April 26, 2012. DIA Director Ronald Burgess will be hosting us at DIA on Friday, April 27, 2012, as part of this 3-day Symposium. Space extremely limited.

HOTEL ACCOMMODATIONS: Crowne Plaza Hotel, 1960 Chain Bridge Rd, McLean, VA 22102
Phone: 1-888-233-9527; If there is any difficulty getting the AFIO $99/night rate [normally $280/night], at the hotel ask for: Luana Jang at 703-738-3120 M - F 7am - 5pm EST. Do NOT call national reservation lines but call the hotel at the above number to get the special event rate, or use this link: http://tinyurl.com/79az3gl

Event is open to U.S. Citizens ONLY.


HOLD THE DATE - PLAN TO ATTEND

22-24 August 2012 - Raleigh, NC - 8th Raleigh Spy Conference

Where: North Carolina Museum of History. Please mark your calendars! Speaker line-up will be announced soon. Visit: www.raleighspyconference.com

 

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

U.S. Focusing on Collecting More Intelligence on Syria, Officials Say. Even as the U.S. administration dismisses military action against the Syrian regime, a major effort is now under way to collect all possible intelligence on the plans and operations of the Damascus regime, two administration officials tell CNN.

"There is an obvious focus on developing intelligence," one official told CNN.

"People are talking about how we can get more," a second official said. 

Both declined to be identified because of the sensitive nature of the efforts under way.

Gathering intelligence on Syria is now a top priority for the U.S. intelligence community, the officials said. Israeli and Jordanian intelligence services are also deeply interested in the same intelligence and assisting and conducting their own operations where they can, according to a third U.S. source with knowledge of the intelligence-gathering efforts.

That source, along with others, has also confirmed the United States is monitoring and intercepting the communications of key Syrian officials and operatives, though the American official could not say whether Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad's own communications were being intercepted. Communications intercepts are one of the most secretive operations for the U.S. intelligence community, even though the United States knows the Syrians are well aware of that technology.

It's not just the Syrian government that U.S. intelligence is focused on, according to the third official. Washington also is working to intercept communications of operatives of al Qaeda in Iraq who are now in Syria and who U.S. intelligence believes are part of a network of AQI operatives responsible for recent attacks in the country.

The source said the latest intelligence clearly indicates small groups of AQI operatives have been "pushed into Syria" by their commanders and are able to carry out intelligence and reconnaissance against Syrian targets, and subsequent bombing attacks. [Read more: Starr/CNN/13February2012]

House Intelligence Committee Chair Says Iran to Blame for Israel Attacks. The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) said Iran is responsible for the recent spate of attacks on Israeli officials throughout the world.

"I can say with a very high degree of confidence that Iran was involved and some of its more known intelligence - both military and civilian intelligence services - were engaged in these events," said Rogers in an interview set to air on NPR's All Things Considered on Saturday evening.

Iran has denied any involvement with bomb attacks in India and Thailand, as well as another failed attempt in Georgia. But Israel has blamed Hezbollah and Iran, saying they signal a new wave of terrorist attacks. The U.S. has labeled Iran a key financial backer of the Hezbollah terrorist group.

Rogers' comments comes amid a growing degree of tensions in Washington D.C. surrounding Iran and its refusal to halt its uranium enrichment efforts, which U.S. officials say could be used to make a nuclear warhead. An increasing number of lawmakers are calling for the U.S. to consider military action against Iran as a pre-emptive measure.

Though top U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, have repeatedly said that all option are on the table when considering appropriate actions towards Iran, the White House said this week that the president remains committed to using sanctions and diplomacy to persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions. [Read more: Yager/TheHill/18February2012]

U.S. Intelligence Officials Offer Grim Words on Afghanistan. Senior U.S. intelligence officials offered a bleak view of the war in Afghanistan in testimony to Congress on Thursday, an assessment they acknowledged was more pessimistic than that of the military commanders in charge.

"I would like to begin with current military operations in Afghanistan, where we assess that endemic corruption and persistent qualitative deficiencies in the army and police forces undermine efforts to extend effective governance and security," Lt. Gen. Ronald Burgess, head of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told the Senate Armed Services Committee at its annual worldwide threat hearing.

The Afghan army remains reliant on U.S. and international forces for logistics, intelligence and transport, he said. And "despite successful coalition targeting, the Taliban remains resilient and able to replace leadership losses while also competing to provide governance at the local level. From its Pakistani safe havens, the Taliban leadership remains confident of eventual victory."

Burgess testified alongside James Clapper, director of national intelligence, who said that the Taliban lost ground in the last year, "but that was mainly in places where the International Security Assistance Forces, or ISAF, were concentrated, and Taliban senior leaders continued to enjoy safe haven in Pakistan."

Clapper was asked by committee chairman Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) about reports in the Los Angeles Times and elsewhere describing a recent National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan that questioned whether the Afghan government would survive as the U.S. steadily pulls out its troops and reduces military and civilian assistance.

The gloomy findings prompted a sharp one-page dissent by Marine Corps Gen. John Allen, the commander of Western forces in the war, and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan. [Read more: Dilanian/LATimes/16February2012]

Turkey Passes Spy Law. Turkey's government on Friday passed emergency legislation blocking senior Turkish intelligence officials from being called to testify in a criminal court, signaling the ruling party's victory in the latest battle of a behind-the-scenes power struggle that last week reached the doorstep of Prime Minister.

The bill, which passed by a wide margin in the early hours of Friday morning marked the latest move in what appeared to be a tussle between the country's two security forces, the police and the national intelligence agency, the MIT. The new law marks the latest accumulation of political power in the hands of Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, enabling him to block prosecutors' summons for intelligence officials or other public servants he has appointed for "specific duties."

That rift that prompted the emergency law change emerged last week after five senior Turkish intelligence officials, including the current spy chief, Hakan Fidan, were called to testify in an ongoing probe of Kurdish rebels. The ever-broadening probe into the group - the Union of Communities in Kurdistan, or KCK - which officials call the urban arm of the Kurdistan Worker's Party or PKK, has led to the detention of thousands of people, according to Kurdish politicians.

The new law, which was ratified by President Abdullah Gul later on Friday, drew fire from opposition politicians who pledged to launch an appeal against the law at Turkey's Constitutional Court. [Read more: Albayak/WallStreetJournal/18February2012]

U.S. Special Ops Forces Killed in African Spy Plane Crash. Four Air Force Special Operators on a spy mission over east Africa died when their U-28 plane crashed as it was returning to Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti. 

Two captains, Ryan P. Hall and Nicholas F. Whitlock, Lt. Justin J. Wilkens and Senior Airman Julian S. Scholten, died in the crash. A spokeswoman for their home station, Hurlburt Field in Florida, said there was "no indication of enemy fire" causing their deaths.

The spokeswoman, Amy Oliver, confirmed that the crew of the single-engine U-28 had been on a mission that "had to do with ISR" - that is, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance for special operations forces on the ground. The U-28 is a small, retrofitted commercial plane that looks indistinguishable from a civilian plane to the naked eye, especially from high in the air.

As the plane returned to Camp Lemonnier, a frequent hub for special operations in pursuit of terrorists in east Africa, "the tower saw smoke coming from the aircraft." There was no visual identification into the cause of the crash, which Oliver said was still under investigation.

Nor did Oliver specify where the mission occurred. But special operations forces have increased their activity in east Africa significantly in recent years, particularly in Somalia, where on January 24, they pulled off a dramatic hostage rescue deep inside the country. There is another American still held hostage in Somalia, the author Michael Scott Moore, but it was unclear whether the intelligence mission the four elite airmen completed had anything to do with Moore. [Read more: Ackerman/Wired/20February2012]

FBI Defends Pay for Hutaree Spy. The FBI agent who supervised the investigation of the southern Michigan-based militia called Hutaree returned to the witness stand for a third day in the federal court trial of members accused of plotting to kill a police officer to ignite a broader overthrow of the government.

Defense attorneys on Thursday continued grilling Special Agent Leslie Larsen about payments made to confidential informant Dan Murray for covert recordings he made of Hutaree meetings and training sessions in the 17 months he was planted in the group.

Murray, 57, was arrested for shooting at his wife in their home during a domestic dispute in February, 2010, nearly a month before authorities swept up nine Hutaree members in raids in Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana. At the time of the incident, Murray had not trained or participated in Hutaree activities for over a month, but he continued to get cash payments from the FBI for helping agents in translating transcripts of recorded conversations.

Agent Larsen said she decided to have Murray look for suspicious or illegal activity among Hutaree members and paid him more than $30,000 in cash for his time and expenses out of the account the FBI uses for informants. "I made the decision on paying him and what to pay him," she said in response to questions from Joshua Stone's attorney, James Thomas.

According to earlier testimony, Agent Larsen said the Hutaree became the target of the FBI investigation after videos on the group's Web site indicated that its members appeared to be detonating improvised explosive devices and firing automatic weapons in shooting and training maneuvers. [Read more: Reiter/ToledoBlade/17February2012]

MI5 Files: Nazis had Spy in MI5 but Failed to Use Him. Dutchman Folkert Arie van Koutrik was the first German agent to ever infiltrate MI5 when he was employed by them in 1940, just a month before Anthony Blunt, who was later exposed as a Soviet spy.

Koutrik had already worked for Abwehr, the German secret service, before the war as a double agent with MI6 in Europe and exposed some of the UK's top agents.

But, incredibly, after he moved to the UK and joined MI5 all contact appears to have broken off.

He was sacked by MI5 in 1941 for having an "abrasive personality" but continued working for MI6 for another year and later the Dutch intelligence services based in Britain.

But his pre-war treachery was only revealed after the conflict and during interrogation of German spies. 

Under the code name Walbach, Koutrik worked in Holland in the 1930s and gave up two of MI5 and MI6's top German agents in the late 1930s and arranged for the kidnapping of two MI6 officers by the Gestapo in 1939.

After he "fled" the German advance and moved to the UK in 1940 he told MI6 that "I am proud to say that for my part not a piece of paper which could lead to the arrest by Germans of our agents was left in my house." [Read more: Whitehead/TheTelegraph/17February2012]

US Cities on Alert for Terror Attack by Iranian Agents. US police were on high alert today amid fears Iran is plotting an attack on a major city.

The White House has warned all police forces to be prepared after attempts to bomb Israeli targets in Thailand, Georgia and India this week. Officials are tracking potential Iranian operatives or anyone with links to the country's terrorist group.

Los Angeles, which has one of the world's largest Iranian communities has moved potential Iranian threats to the top of its intelligence briefings over the past few weeks.

"The attacks overseas raise everybody's anxiety level a little bit," said Michael Downing, commander of the LAPD's counter terrorism unit.

The New York Police Department said it assumed Iran would attack the city because of its large Jewish population. [Read more: Porritt/EveningStandard/17February2012]

Spies Among Us. USF is now offering a new program to train intelligence officers for the CIA, State Department, Department Of Defense, and private industry.

"When the President was briefed about Osama Bin Laden, how sure are you that he's there?"

The question is posed to the class by Walter Andrusyszyn, a former foreign service officer who heads the program. His experience includes briefing Donald Rumsfeld, Defense Secretary under George W. Bush.

"If you wavered in his presence, he could go after you, and he was a very uncomfortable person to brief," says Andrusyszyn. "But, what he was trying to do was to make sure you knew what you were talking about."

Students are required to have proficiency in at least one foreign language, take international relations courses, and courses in writing.

But, the main skill to learn is critical thinking, which some say is lacking in students entering colleges.

Andrusyszyn says successful candidates must also learn to have confidence in their conclusions, even though 100 percent certainty is nearly impossible when gathering intelligence.

"But, if you're certain enough about your gut, your instinct, your knowledge and you have confidence about your conclusions, you will persuade others. And that's what makes a good intelligence officer," he says. [Read more: Sowers/FoxTampaBay/17February2012]

Taliban Behead Four Alleged Spies. Taliban militants have beheaded four men for allegedly spying for the government in southern Afghanistan, an official said Tuesday.

The bodies of the men were discovered in Washer district of volatile Helmand province late on Sunday.

"The four men were civilians who were beheaded by Taliban for allegedly spying for government," provincial spokesman Daud Ahmadi told AFP.

The Taliban had found satellite phones in the men's possession and thought they were spies, he said, adding that mobile phones do not work in that district and it is normal for people to use satellite phones.

The militants, who have in the past used beheading as a punishment on alleged spies and traitors, were not immediately available for comment. [Read more: AFP/21February2012]

Intelligence Effort Prevents U.S. Capitol Bomb Plot. Within the last week, authorities say, Amine El Khalifi's plan to wreak havoc was proceeding as hoped: An al-Qaida associate handed him an automatic weapon to kill security officers inside the U.S. Capitol. A bomb-laden vest would detonate the building. He would die as a martyr.

But there was a problem: The explosives were inert, the gun inoperable and the supposed al-Qaida member was actually an undercover officer, according to court documents.

El Khalifi was arrested Friday in a parking garage on his way to carry out an attack the FBI says he kicked around for months, even detonating a practice bomb in a quarry, all with varied targets in mind.

An FBI affidavit traces the evolution of the plot from a vague plan to prepare for the "war on Muslims" to more clearly articulated visions of attacking a restaurant and synagogue to, finally, a goal of obliterating the seat of American government. The document alleges a weeks-long flurry of final activity by El Khalifi, monitored by the FBI and coordinated through an undercover agent, to scope out the building, train in explosives and arm himself for a suicide attack.

The investigation that led to El Khalifi's arrest started last January on a confidential informant's tip to the FBI. The informant described a meeting inside an Arlington apartment, where a person who produced an AK-47, two revolvers and ammunition said the war on terror equated with a "war on Muslims" and urged the group to prepare for battle. El Khalifi, the FBI learned, expressed agreement. [Read more: Tucker/AP/20February2012]

Al-Qaeda Claims it Killed Intelligence Officers in Yemen. The deadly al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula bragged that the radical Islamist group assassinated several senior Yemeni intelligence officers last month, in a statement posted on the Jihadi-run websites late on Monday.

In the statement obtained the National Association of Chiefs of Police's Terrorism Committee, the al-Qaeda leaders boasted that their group "killed Major Saleh al-Jabri, the prison warden of the Sanaa-based Political Security Agency on January 23." 

"Al-Jabri was responsible for torturing its jailed member since February 2011 in the intelligence prison in Sanaa," al-Qaeda's statement claimed.

"We also attacked a mini-bus carrying a number of intelligence officers in the southern port city of Aden last month, killing several of them and seriously injured the others," the statement said.

Dozens of al-Qaeda operatives were held in prisons in Sanaa, according to the Law Enforcement Examiner's confidential Israeli source.

Yemeni intelligence personnel have been targets in the past several months by the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

The terrorist group also claimed credit for killing a local leader of the Houthi-led Shiite rebels identified as Hassan al-Mu' eyad in the northeastern province of Marib last month. It said that it ambushed another four Shiite rebel commanders in the northern province of Saada, a key stronghold of the Shiite rebel group. [Read more: Kouri/Examiner/20February2012]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Mystery Over Chaplin's Birth, MI5 Records Show. British intelligence was unable to find any trace of Charlie Chaplin's birth when it investigated allegations of communist sympathies, newly-released files showed on Friday.

The mystery of the film star's birth emerged when US authorities asked MI5, Britain's domestic spy agency, to look into his background after he left the United States in 1952 under a cloud of suspicion over his communist links.

British intelligence could find no confirmation that Chaplin was born in London in April 1889, and they dismissed claims that he was in fact originally from France.

The actor was believed to have been born on April 16, 1889 in East Street, Walworth, south London - ironically just four days before the birth of Nazi leader Adolf Hitler, whom he lampooned in his classic 1940 film "The Great Dictator".

MI5 searched through files in London for his birth certificate, including checks for his supposed alias "Israel Thornstein".

But the previously secret records show that agents concluded: "It would seem that Chaplin was either not born in this country or that his name at birth was other than those mentioned."

John Marriott, then head of MI5's counter-subversion branch, was not convinced that the absence of a birth certificate was a matter of concern for the intelligence services.

He wrote: "It is curious that we can find no record of Chaplin's birth, but I scarcely think that this is of any security significance." [Read more: AFP/17February2012]

USAID Contractor Work in Cuba Detailed. Piece by piece, in backpacks and carry-on bags, American aid contractor Alan Gross made sure laptops, smartphones, hard drives and networking equipment were secreted into Cuba. The most sensitive item, according to official trip reports, was the last one: a specialized mobile phone chip that experts say is often used by the Pentagon and the CIA to make satellite signals virtually impossible to track.

The purpose, according to an Associated Press review of Gross' reports, was to set up uncensored satellite Internet service for Cuba's small Jewish community.

The operation was funded as democracy promotion for the U.S. Agency for International Development, established in 1961 to provide economic, development and humanitarian assistance around the world in support of U.S. foreign policy goals. Gross, however, identified himself as a member of a Jewish humanitarian group, not a representative of the U.S. government.

Cuban President Raul Castro called him a spy, and Gross was sentenced last March to 15 years in prison for seeking to "undermine the integrity and independence" of Cuba. U.S. officials say he did nothing wrong and was just carrying out the normal mission of USAID.

Gross said at his trial in Cuba that he was a "trusting fool" who was duped. But his trip reports indicate that he knew his activities were illegal in Cuba and that he worried about the danger, including possible expulsion.

One report says a community leader "made it abundantly clear that we are all 'playing with fire.'"

Another time Gross said: "This is very risky business in no uncertain terms."

And finally: "Detection of satellite signals will be catastrophic."

The case has heightened frictions in the decades-long political struggle between the United States and its communist neighbor to the south, and raises questions about how far democracy-building programs have gone - and whether cloak-and-dagger work is better left to intelligence operatives. [Read more: Butler/AP/13February2012]

When Is a Cybercrime an Act of Cyberwar? There is growing talk of cyberwar, as opposed to run-of-the-mill cybercrime. There are also terms that lie somewhere in the middle like cyber espionage, and cyber hacktivism - which is sort of like cyber terrorism for good guys. At the heart of the debate is an attempt to define the scope of an appropriate response to each type of threat.

Former U.S. cyber-security tsar Richard Clarke describes scenarios in his book Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It of nationwide power blackouts, poison gas clouds and burning oil refineries, aircraft dropping from the sky and crashing subways. Those are the types of attacks that would seem to clearly indicate an act of cyberwar, but there are also many nuanced attacks in between that muddy the waters.

The problem is that there are subtle semantic differences in the way different parties apply the terms cybercrime, cyberwar, cyber espionage, cyber hacktivism, or cyber terrorism. There is no clear consensus, which complicates the process of determining what level of law enforcement or government should be engaged to address a given attack.

Richard Stiennon , chief research analyst at IT-Harvest and author of Surviving Cyberwar, explains that the methods used can be identical. That means it takes a deeper investigation into the goals and motives of the attack to assign a label to it.

Mike Reagan, CMO of LogRhythm, believes that the lines are definitely getting blurred, but the distinction matters in terms of defining whether an incident is the responsibility of law enforcement or the military. “Cyberwar could be characterized as the use of cyber weapons to destroy enemy capabilities and/or populations. Cyber-crime could be defined as the use of cyber weapons/tools to execute a criminal act driven by any number of reasons.”

Stiennon draws some distinctions in the definitions as well. A cybercriminal is generally motivated purely by profit. That is a different goal than cyber espionage, which seeks to access intellectual property for military or industrial strategic advantage, or cyberwar, which focuses on actually sabotaging infrastructure, disrupting critical systems, or inflicting physical damage on an enemy. [Read more: Bradley/PCWorld/20February2012]

How Israeli Spies Pulled It Off. Famous for deceiving, concealing and thriving in the dark, spies are the perfect opposites of museums, which by definition crave audiences, truth and light. This alone is reason to visit the Mossad-sponsored "Operation Finale," an exhibition that lists for its curator a presumably active spy cryptically presented as Avner A., surely a first in cloak-and-dagger annals.

Fortunately, there are even better reasons to visit this compact but sharp exhibition at Tel Aviv's Museum of the Jewish People, which tells the story of Israel's kidnapping, transfer and trial of senior Holocaust organizer Adolf Eichmann. Rich with newly declassified documents, photos and artifacts - from the identification, knife and comb Eichmann carried while kidnapped in 1960, to the bulletproof glass booth in which he was tried in 1961 and sentenced to death - the exhibition quickly orients even the uninformed, leading rhythmically along a path of several 90-degree turns that take visitors from stage to stage along this tale's 14-year evolution. While learning what lengths Israel went through to bring to justice the man who oversaw European Jewry's transport to the extermination camps, visitors also get a rare glimpse at secret agents and their work, and a surprising salute from the Mossad to world Jewry. 

Spy-drama buffs will note this operation was much more George Smiley than James Bond. Eichmann's 11 immediate handlers, whose names and photos are revealed for the first time, look like ordinary people with no common denominator. Some are bespectacled, some stern faced, some smiling, and one - Judith Nessiyahu, who played the safe house's "mother" - has round glasses, straggly short hair and what seems like a giggling smile, all of which make her look like a librarian who just won the lottery. [Read more: Asa-El/WallStreetJournal/16February2012]

CIA and Special Ops are "Deconflicted at All Levels". "I will tell you the relationship between CIA and Special Operations Forces is as good as I have ever seen it," said Adm. William H. McRaven, Commander of Special Operations Command, in congressional testimony last year. "Both under [CIA] Director Panetta, and now, of course, under Director Petraeus, I think we are going to see that relationship continue to strengthen and blossom."

The conduct of DoD special operations, including coordination between DoD clandestine operations and CIA covert operations, was the subject of an informative hearing held by the House Armed Services Committee in September. The record of that hearing has just been published.

"USSOCOM [U.S. Special Operations Command] and the CIA currently coordinate, share, exchange liaison officers and operate side by side in the conduct of DOD overt and clandestine operations and CIA's covert operations, said Michael D. Lumpkin, acting assistant secretary of defense.

"Our activities are mutually supportive based on each organization's strengths and weaknesses and overall capabilities. Whichever organization has primary authority to conduct the operation leads; whichever organization has the superior planning and expertise plans it; both organizations share information about intelligence, plans, and ongoing operations fully and completely. Whether one or both organizations participate in the execution depends on the scope of the plan and the effect that needs to be achieved. Currently all USSOCOM and CIA operations are coordinated and deconflicted at all levels." [Read more: Aftergood/SecrecyNews/21February2012]


Section III - COMMENTARY

Bringing 'Political Intelligence' Out of the Shadows. It should be a no-brainer: a popular bill with bipartisan support that bans insider trading by members of Congress.

The legislation is known as the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act, or the Stock Act. It gained momentum last year after an explosive 60 Minutes report that accused several prominent representatives of insider trading using government information. President Obama urged the bill's passage in his State of the Union address last month.

Now, however, the bill is stuck in part due to a disagreement over a provision that requires so-called "political intelligence" professionals to register with the government and disclose their activities in the same way that lobbyists do. 

The disagreement puts the spotlight on an industry that has previously escaped the notice of most Americans. But despite its relatively low profile, political intelligence is big business.

Political intelligence professionals get paid big bucks to gather information about government policy and pending legislation, often through lawmakers or other public officials. Their clients include hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and wealthy individuals who use the information to guide investment decisions.

Under one version of the Stock Act, political intelligence practitioners would have to reveal who their clients are, how much they get paid for their research, and what issues they're hired to gather intelligence on.

"If you seek information from Congress in order to make money, the American people have a right to know your name and who you're selling that information to," Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa said in congressional debate earlier this month.

The idea is that shining a light on the industry will help ensure that such firms are confined to objective research and analysis and are not simply providing insider trading tips based on government knowledge.

Amazingly, there are no clear prohibitions on these kinds of insider tips at the moment. [Read more: O'Toole/CNN/17February2012]

Bloody Spy War Could Spark an Open Conflict.  It's been called a war of words, but for a long time now it's been so much more than that.

The assassination of nuclear scientists, exploding missile sites, mysterious plane crashes, disappearances, sophisticated cyberwarfare and worldwide bomb attacks; all have become the hallmarks of the bitter ongoing covert war between Israel and its United States ally on one side and Iran on the other.

The two camps have for years of course been implacable foes, but the heightened tensions over Tehran's nuclear programme and most recently the string of assassination attempts on Israeli diplomats, in India, Georgia and Thailand, have once again brought this clandestine war out of the shadows.

Whether it be the use of sticky bombs attached to cars and detonated to kill prominent Iranian nuclear experts or the Stuxnet computer worm that targeted the industrial software vital to Iran's uranium enrichment efforts, there can be no more obvious explanation for such events than that Israel's Mossad intelligence service and the CIA - possibly working in collaboration - are pulling out all the stops to neutralise Iran's nuclear ambitions.

While it would be foolish to talk of winners or losers in such a confrontation, there is no escaping the fact that Israel and its Western allies appear, so far, to have had the upper hand in this secretive, no-rules war.

While the strikes against Iranian targets have consistently been sophisticated and slickly carried out, the response in terms of the attacks on Israeli envoys has been ham-fisted and focused on comparatively "soft" targets. This is where things don't quite stack up as they should. [Read more: HeraldScotland/17February2012]


Section IV - Books, Obituaries and Coming Events


Books and Magazines

Breaking Japanese Code, Predicting their Methods was Key to Controlling Pacific, by Fay Vincent. One of my most fascinating friendships was with a fellow Williams College alumnus, Dick Helms, who became head of the Central Intelligence Agency in the 1960s. Helms, a career intelligence officer, had begun his service during World War II in the Office of Strategic Services and was familiar with the history of intelligence efforts during that war.

He was about 25 years older than I, but we became good friends and I often asked him about his intelligence work. I was reminded of him while reading two new accounts of the war in the Pacific and of the singular importance played by Navy code breakers who warned with stunning accuracy of the Japanese plans to attack Midway Island in mid 1942. The victory achieved by the Navy in the battle of Midway was the tipping point of the war in the Pacific, and to read of that titanic clash is to be reminded of the brilliance and sacrifice of those who achieved that monumental victory. The two new books are "Pacific Crucible" by Ian Toll and "The Battle of Midway" by Craig L. Simon.

Helms rightly and proudly claimed the achievements of our intelligence services during that war, which made a singular contribution to our success against Japan and Germany. By breaking the Japanese code and by skillfully employing the captured Enigma machine that betrayed the Germans, our military leadership had an insurmountable advantage it skillfully exploited.

The crushing defeat of the Japanese at Midway was the result of our fleet being able to lie in wait for the Japanese with accurate intelligence as to the size of the opposition and of their plans for the attack.

Each of these books confirms and applauds the genius of the Navy intelligence team located at Pearl Harbor. The leader was Joseph Rochefort, a veteran Naval officer who had been sent to Japan long before the war to master the language and to study the culture and history of that looming enemy. After the disaster at Pearl Harbor, the military placed greater emphasis on our ability to gain better insights into the Japanese plans, and the work of Rochefort and his team became a priority. [Read more: Vincent/TCPalm/20February2012]

The U.S. War for Drugs and of Terror in Colombia. I just had the pleasure of reading an important new book entitled, Cocaine, Death Squads and the War on Terror (U.S. Imperialism and Class Struggle in Colombia). This book, which was ten years in the making, is written by Oliver Villar & Drew Cottle and published by Monthly Review. The premise of the book is that, despite the U.S. claims that it is engaged in a war against drugs in Colombia, it is in fact engaged in an anti-insurgency war against the left-wing FARC guerillas - a war which does not seek to eradicate coca growing and cocaine production in Colombia at all.

Rather, the U.S. war effort (which has cost U.S. taxpayers over $7 billion since 2000) is designed to ensure that the allies of the U.S. in Colombia - that is, the Colombian state, paramilitaries and wealthy elite who are favorable to U.S. business interests and to the U.S.'s desire for exploitation of Colombia's vast resources - are themselves able to monopolize the drug trade so critical to their survival.

This thesis is well-expressed in the Forward by Peter Dale Scott:

"The CIA can (and does) point to its role in the arrest or elimination of a number of major Colombian traffickers. These arrests have not diminished the actual flow of cocaine into the United States, which on the contrary reached a new high in 2000. But they have institutionalized the relationship of law enforcement to rival cartels and visibly contributed to the increase of urban cartel violence. The true purpose of most of these campaigns, like the current Plan Colombia, has not been the hopeless ideal of eradication. It has been to alter market share: to target specific enemies and thus ensure that the drug traffic remains under the control of those traffickers who are allies of the Colombian state security apparatus and/or the CIA. This confirms the judgment of Senate investigator Jack Blum a decade ago, that America, instead of battling a narcotics conspiracy, has in a subtle way . . . become part of the conspiracy." [Read more: Kovalik/HuffingtonPost/16February2012]

New On-Line Intelligence Magazine. South African intelligence analyst and academic, Dalene Duvenage, has started a new e-magazine, Foreknowledge, focused on intelligence analysis. Her motivation is to help analysts keep up with developments in the profession. The initial edition includes a chat with former CIA/DI analyst, Richard Heuer, whom she dubs the "induna" of intelligence analysis. "Induna" is Zulu for advisor or great leader. This edition contains the first of a series of articles drawn from Heuer's opus, The Psychology of Analysis. Other articles address strategic indicators, the language used to describe probabilities, and news about the analytical profession. She cites AFIO member Dr. Robert M. Clark's book, Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach. To read Foreknowledge go to http://www.foreknowledge.info/home.html. Her SA Intelligencer e-newsletter (http://4knowledge-za.blogspot.com/2011/12/sa-intelligencer-90.html) has been a rich source of current coverage of intelligence activities in Africa and elsewhere in the world often not covered in the Western press. [Read more: Foreknowledge/February2012]

Can Torture be Morally Right? Both sides were defiant and unrepentant. When President George W. Bush was asked for permission to 'waterboard' the Al Qaeda terrorist and 9/11 mastermind, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, to obtain vital information, his thoughts turned not only to the thousands who died in the Twin Towers but also to Daniel Pearl, the kidnapped American journalist whose head Khalid admitted hacking off with his own hand.

'Damn right! Get on with it!' Bush said. Writing later about his duty to protect the United States from another terror attack, he said: 'And I'd do it again.'

Meanwhile, behind bars in Guantanamo Bay, the U.S. detention centre for terror suspects, the fanatical (and egotistical) Khalid Sheikh Mohammed was equally impenitent.

He was happy to admit his part as 'principal planner' of 9/11 and to link his name to almost every terrorist outrage in recent years, as if trying to prove himself a bigger threat than his nominal chief, Osama Bin Laden.

And would the self-confessed killer do it all again, if given the chance? The answer was an unqualified 'yes' - as part of his jihad (‘holy war') against America and all the infidel nation stood for.

Unlike Bush, Khalid Sheikh Mohammed wallowed in his brutality. When Daniel Pearl was killed, the process of cutting off his head with a knife was halted after it had begun because the video camera (recording the slaughter for dissemination round the world) wasn't working.

Once it was fixed, the gruesome task resumed. Who knows what pain the American suffered before he died, but waterboarding (a simulation of drowning that produces panic and pain) must have been almost benign by comparison.

Here, in a nutshell, is the crucial battleground of the 21st century. How far can a nation stretch its own hard-won traditions of law and justice in order to combat terrorism that knows no boundaries, either geographical or ethical, in its hate-driven crusade to wipe its supposed enemies off the face of the earth?

This uncomfortable moral dilemma - perhaps the most pressing of our troubled times - is tackled in a new book by the British writer and journalist William Shawcross. [Read more: Rennell/DailyMail/21February2012]

Quarterly magazine Creative Nonfiction seeks stories, blog posts for upcoming issue on True Crime.

(www.creativenonfiction.org) is seeking narrative blog posts to reprint in our upcoming True Crime issue. We're looking to get input from organizations, like Association of Former Intelligence Officers, who are plugged in to the online true crime writing community, and we hope you'll encourage the members of your organization to nominate submissions. We're looking for: Posts that can stand alone, 2000 words max, from 2011.
Something from your own blog, from a friend's blog, from a stranger's blog. Please note that the deadline for nominations has been extended to Monday, February 27, 2012.
The complete call is available here: www.creativenonfiction.org/blog_nomination_open.html
Questions to Jasmine Turner, Editorial Assistant, Creative Nonfiction, 5501 Walnut Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15232 412.688.0304


Obituaries

Carleton B. Swift Jr. Carleton B. Swift Jr., 92, a retired CIA officer who worked in the clandestine services, died Jan. 24 at his home in Washington.

He had respiratory failure, said his daughter-in-law Claire Swift.

Mr. Swift had served in the Navy during World War II before he was recruited to join the Office of Strategic Services, the wartime forerunner of the CIA. He served as station chief in Hanoi and Canton in the OSS before joining the CIA shortly after its creation in 1947. At the CIA, Mr. Swift held overseas postings in Seoul, Baghdad, Tokyo, London and The Hague before retiring in 1974.

Carleton Byron Swift Jr. was born in Portland, Ore., and was a 1941 engineering graduate of Harvard.

He received the Bronze Star Medal for his service in the Chinese theater during World War II.

His marriages to Mary Davidson, Frances Patterson and Patricia Waring ended in divorce.

A daughter from his first marriage, Lila Swift, died in 1973.

Survivors include three children from his first marriage, Carleton Swift, Isabel Swift and William Swift, all of Washington; two children from his second marriage, Matthew Swift of Gloucester, Mass., and Liberty Fitzpatrick of Middlebury Conn.; three sisters; and 12 grandchildren. [Shapiro/WashingtonPost/17February2012]

MRD Foot. MRD Foot, the official historian of the Special Operations Executive, who has died aged 92, enjoyed the rare distinction of being the only person to be referred to by his real name in a John le Carré novel.

"Are you MRD Foot?," someone asks George Smiley, who is posing as the Secret Service's official historian as a cover while hunting for Karla's mole. It was an amusing tribute to the man whose classic account of the work of SOE in France, published in 1966, led to his becoming known as "Mr. Resistance." 

Foot's decision to chance his academic reputation on a book about Britain's "secret army" cannot have been an easy one, especially since he had been brought up to believe that although the Secret Services were "a very good thing", it was bad form to talk about them.

Moreover, in the early post-war years, authors who had attempted to write unauthorised accounts of SOE found themselves in a minefield of personal rivalries and sensitivities; so much so that one author suggested that it would be impossible to write any fully objective history of SOE within the lifetime of the participants, as "there would be too much libel". None the less, repeated charges of inefficiency and callousness in the administration of SOE led MPs, notably Dame Irene Ward, to campaign for an official history to be written.

The genesis of Foot's classic account SOE in France (1966) was almost as clandestine as its subject. In 1958 the Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, authorised the inception of research, but it was not until two years later that Foot was invited to an interview in the Foreign Office. Even then, it was only after an hour-long grilling that he was asked whether he would like to take on such a project.

There were, his interviewers told him, some conditions: he was not allowed to tell anyone what he was doing - not even his wife. He was, furthermore, to write his account on the assumption that MI6 did not exist, and without the knowledge or co-operation of the men and women involved.

Few historians can have embarked on their magnum opus so circumscribed as Foot. For two years he ferreted through the secret files held in the Foreign Office and Cabinet Office, some so secret that when reading them he had to be locked in a room in a Whitehall basement, from which he could escape only by ringing a bell. He was also hampered by the fact that many of SOE's files had been destroyed, and others were available only if he specifically requested them; moreover, he had no access to French archives.

By Christmas 1962 he had finished the first draft, only to see it disappear into the bowels of the Foreign Office. He heard nothing more for well over a year, until April 1964, when Peter Thomas, Minister of State at the Foreign Office, announced that a draft of the history had been completed and that the government had decided in principle that it should be published by Her Majesty's Stationery Office.

This intelligence came as a complete surprise to former SOE hands, including Colonel Maurice Buckmaster and Major-General Sir Colin Gubbins, who had been in charge of SOE's operations in France at the time. Though disconcerted, both men agreed to help, and, on their advice and that of other old SOE hands, Foot made further revisions to the draft.

Even so, when the book was finally published, it aroused enormous controversy for its portrayals of some SOE operatives; half a dozen former agents threatened legal action and there were two successful libel suits.

Yet for all the difficulties involved, Foot's account was acclaimed as a classic, and he was widely praised for the skill with which he linked the experience of agents on the ground with the organisational and geographical handicaps of controllers back in London. While he did not try to disguise its occasional failures, he defended SOE against charges of inefficiency and callousness, paying tribute to its role in helping to restore French self-respect by its support of the Resistance movement.

Michael Richard Daniell Foot, an "exceedingly distant" relation of his namesake the politician, was born on December 14 1919. His family, split between the Army and Royal Navy, provided a good preparation for the great British tradition of inter-service rivalry. His great-great uncle, the First Sea Lord Jackie Fisher, was said to have been so incensed when his favourite niece married an Army officer that he sent her a £10 note with a terse message saying that he would never speak to her again.

Foot was a scholar at both Winchester and at New College, Oxford, where he arrived in 1938 to read PPE. He was 19 when war broke out in his first long vacation. He joined the Royal Artillery and, from a searchlight battery on the Isle of Thanet, found himself diverted on to the staff of Combined Operations. Shortly before D-Day, he transferred to the staff of the Special Air Services brigade, an international unit containing battalions of soldiers from the countries of occupied Europe.

In August 1944, as the break-out from Normandy was taking place, Foot was given a special mission to track down a notorious German interrogator called Bonner who had tortured some of the French SAS after capture. But Foot and his men were ambushed by German paratroopers; Foot was posted missing, presumed killed. [Read more: TheTelegraph/20February2012]


Coming Educational Events

EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

MANY Spy Museum Events in February, March, and beyond, with full details are listed on the AFIO Website at www.afio.com. The titles for some of these are in detail below and online.

1 - 29 February 2012, 9 am – 6 pm – Give Gift of Full Month access to Spy Museum as part of "LOVE A SPY"

This February, take your love undercover at the International Spy Museum! The Museum has developed a package to spice up the romance at your next rendezvous. Throughout February the Museum will offer a Love A Spy promotional package, which includes 2 tickets to the Museum's permanent exhibit and a special gift from the retail store that will help spies turn up the heat. This package is good throughout the month of February, excluding the Feb 18-19th holiday weekend. Tickets: $29.95 To purchase, visit www.spymuseum.org

21 February 2012, 11:30am - 2pm - McLean, VA - Defense Intelligence Forum features Dr. Michael Metcalf on China's new defense policy.
Dr. Michael Metcalf will speak on China's new Defense Policy. Metcalf holds a BA in Political Science from Western Carolina Univ, an MA in Political Philosophy from North Carolina State Univ and a PhD in Political Science from Catholic Univ. He worked 25 years at the Defense Intelligence Agency and 5 years at the Bureau of Intelligence and Analysis at the Department of State. Over the years, he has developed a reputation in the Intelligence Community as a keen study of Chinese intentions. Currently, Dr. Metcalf is teaching at the National Intelligence University, where he focuses on China. His latest publication: "Imperialism with Chinese Characteristics? Reading and Re-Reading China's 2006 Defense White Paper" was written to help students and new analysts learn how to read Chinese documents and make sense of Chinese motivations and intentions. This publication will provide the basis for his presentation and is available as a PDF for downloading on the National Intelligence Press section of the NIU website: http://www.ni-u.edu/ni_press/pdf/Imperialism_with_Chinese_Characteristics.pdf
For this forum, you may attribute the speaker's remarks. Everything will be on the record.
Where: Pulcinella Restaurant, 6852 Old Dominion Drive, McLean, VA. Pay at the door with a check for $29.00 payable to DIAA, Inc.
Make reservations by 19 February 2012 by email to diforum@diaalumni.org. Include names, telephone numbers, and email addresses and choose Chicken Cacciatore, Tilapia Puttanesca, Lasagna, Sausage with Peppers, Fettuccini with Portabella for your lunch selection.
Pay at the door with a check for $29.00 per person, payable to DIAA, Inc.
Check is preferred, but will accept cash; however, credit card payments are discouraged

22 February 2012 - Washington, DC - "The Greatest Spies of WWII: De Clarens…and Hemingway?" (2-Session Daytime Course) at the International Spy Museum in collaboration with Smithsonian Associates

Imagine operating behind enemy lines using your wits, fame, or seductive powers to fight a ruthless adversary. The spies of World War II knew that they faced death upon discovery, yet they continued to engage in daring and dangerous exploits to thwart the Axis powers. Some were incredibly effective while others, like Hemingway, were just incredibly bold. In this series, a distinguished group of experts and former intelligence officers will introduce you to some of the bravest and most daring spies of the 20th century.

Ernest Hemingway
Wednesday, 22 February 2012, 10:15 am – 12:15 pm at the International Spy Museum in collaboration with Smithsonian Associates Program

Ernest Hemingway, true to his macho image, plunged into WWII intelligence work with his brother Leicester and his son Jack. The Hemingways searched for Fascist spies in Cuba, patrolled the Caribbean for Nazi subs, parachuted into occupied France, roamed the battlefields of France after D-Day, and even met secretly with the KGB. Nicholas Reynolds, an intelligence and military historian who has taught at the Naval War College, served as Officer-in-Charge of Field History for USMC, and worked on the history of the OSS for the CIA Museum, will recount the Hemingways' exploits.
Tickets: $112 for the 4 sessions. Register by phone with the Smithsonian Associates at 202-633-3030 or online at http://residentassociates.org

23 February 2012, 1230 - 1430 hrs - Los Angeles, CA - the AFIO Los Angeles Chapter meeting features Lt. Col. Phil Meinhardt USAF (ret.) on "Eagle Pull" in Vietnam

Meinhardt will be addressing the chapter on what happened after the 1973 truce in Vietnam and the evacuation of Phnom Penh, Cambodia, called 'Eagle Pull' which he wrote. Col. Meinhardt arrived in Vietnam on June 23, 1973 as the Air Force Liaison Officer to the Vietnamese Joint General Staff, continuing with assignments to the U.S. Support Activities Group and the Military Assistance Group, Thailand. Col. Meinhardt is a 1960 graduate of the Air Force Academy and pilot with a thirty-four year military career that included Chief of Advanced Concepts and Director of Advanced Space Technology for Air Force Space and Missile Systems. Col. Meinhardt is a former Republican nominee to Congress with an extensive planning and policy background.
RSVP AFIO_LA@yahoo.com if you would like to attend, lunch will be served for $20. The meeting will take place at the LMU campus in the Hilton Business Building in RM. 304

29 February 2012, 2 - 3 pm - Woodbridge, VA - OSS Veteran Elizabeth Peet "Betty" McIntosh, 97, to be awarded 2012 Virginia Women in History Award - AFIO members invited

The annual Virginia Women in History program, sponsored by the Library of Virginia and Dominion, recognizes eight women, past and present, who have developed new approaches to old problems, served their communities, striven for excellence based on the courage of their convictions, advanced their professions, and initiated changes that continue to affect our lives today. Previous honorees, ranging across four centuries of Virginia history and all fields of endeavor, have included Pocahontas, Ellen Glasgow, Grace Hopper, Barbara Johns, Sheila Crump Johnson, and Dolley Madison.
At an awards presentation and reception on March 29 in Richmond, the Library of Virginia will celebrate the lives and contributions of eight extraordinary women, including McIntosh. The World War II veteran was nominated for the honor by Linda McCarthy, of Markham, Virginia. The Library of Virginia posted the eight selectees for 2012 Virginia Women in History honors at http://www.lva.virginia.gov/public/vawomen/
WHERE: McIntosh will receive her award during a special presentation at her retirement community - Westminster at Lake Ridge, 12191 Clipper Dr, Lake Ridge, VA 22192 - 703-496-3440 on February 29 from 2:00 pm to 3:00 pm. At that time, she will also be interviewed on-camera for the Library's videotaped oral history program. AFIO members are encouraged to attend the ceremony.
As part of the Virginia Women in History program, the Library designs a poster featuring the eight honorees, which is provided to schools, museums, libraries, and other state educational institutions. In addition, a panel exhibition highlighting the women's contributions will be on display at the Library during the month of March; after that, the display travel around the state for the next twelve months.
An intelligence officer with the Office of Strategic Services, McIntosh worked in the China-Burma-India Theater during World War II. She was one of the few women assigned to Morale Operations, where she helped produce false news reports, postcards, documents, and radio messages designed to spread disinformation that would undermine Japanese morale.
After the war McIntosh wrote a memoir of her OSS experiences, published in 1947 as Undercover Girl. Her book Sisterhood of Spies: Women of the OSS (1998) describes the adventures of the brave women who served in the Office of Strategic Services during World War II.

Wednesday, 7 March 2012, 6:30 – 8:30 pm – Washington, DC - "Intel and the Arab Spring: What Does the Future Hold?" at the International Spy Museum

How could the world have missed the signs that an Arab Spring was coming? Did the U.S. suffer from poor intelligence, compromised relationships, or simply a failure of the imagination? And now how do we prevent the reemergence of blind spots as we build relationships with rapidly emerging regimes and their intelligence services? Join experts Reuel Marc Gerecht, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, author of The Wave: Man, God, and the Ballot Box in the Middle East, and a former Middle East specialist in the CIA's Clandestine Service; and Colonel W. Patrick Lang, former Defense Intelligence Officer for the Middle East, South Asia and Terrorism, author of Intelligence: The Human Factor, and expert consultant on intel operations in Muslim countries; for a spirited discussion of how the U.S.'s understanding—or misunderstanding—of the Middle East affects intelligence collection and analysis in the region. Sparks may fly when the speakers share their potentially conflicting ideas about how the U.S. can alter a decades-old paradigm
Ticket: $15. To register or for more information visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 14 March 2012, 11:30am - Scottsdale, AZ - Hank Potosky on "The Secret Service Protection." at AFIO Arizona

Hank had a thirty-one year career as a Special Agent and Assistant Special Agent in Charge with the United States Secret Service.
He was Coordinator/Director for the 1988 Iowa Caucus and for Secret Service Security Manpower for the 1983 Economic Summit in Williamsburg, Virginia. He was the Secret Service Liaison and Security Coordinator with United Nation Officials for two United Nations General Assemblies. He was involved in the protection of seven Presidents and seven Vice-Presidents and numerous foreign Heads of State. He also
investigated cases involving counterfeiting, forgery of government securities, fraud against the U.S. Government, identity theft and electronics crimes.
New location: McCormick Ranch Golf Course, 7505 McCormick Pwy, Scottsdale, AZ - 480.948.0260.
RSVP no later than 72 hours ahead of time; in the past, not reserving or cancelling without prior notice (72 hours prior to the meeting) created much grief for those of us organizing the meeting and dealing with the personnel!
WE ARE charged for the no-shows and please remember, we are a small organization with a humble coffer!
We would therefore APPRECIATE that you all respond to this email to confirm your presence (or not).
Our meeting fees will be as follows: • $20.00 for AFIO members; • $22.00 for guests; • $25.00 for AFIO Members with NO RSVPs as per the requested date
• All NO SHOWS or last minute cancellations will need to pay for the lunch
For reservations or questions, please email ON OR BEFORE January 9th, 2012 Simone simone@4smartphone.net or simone@afioaz.org or call and leave a message on 602.570.6016

Thursday, 15 March 2012, 11:30 am - Colorado Springs, CO – The AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter presents a re-scheduling of Sheriff Terry Maketa speaking about his official visits to Israel and Trinidad.

This should be an interesting talk as El Paso County Sheriff's rarely travel this far from home. To be held at The Inn at Palmer Divide, 443 S. Highway 105 Palmer Lake, CO, Exit 161 westbound off I-25, West on Highway 105. Please RSVP to Tom VanWormer at robsmom@pcisys.net

Wednesday, 21 March 2012, 6:30 – 8:30 pm - Washington, DC - "Weapons of Mass Disruption" at the International Spy Museum

Was your computer one of the machines that attacked Estonia?
Go behind-the-scenes on some of the most aggressive cyber attacks of our time. Join Dave Marcus, Director of Security Research for McAfee Labs, for a special screening of Weapons of Mass Disruption. The film, inspired by the Spy Museum's exhibit of the same name, focuses on key events in the evolution of cyber warfare, from the CIA's successful cyber-sabotage of the Soviet Union's trans-Siberia pipeline in the 1980s, to Stuxnet, a calculated cyber attack on Iran in 2009-10. On-screen experts, including Marcus, discuss cyber attacks you may know: the two week attack on Estonia in 2007 in which the country was essentially shut down; and those you may not: the theft of F35 fighter related information in 2009. They also cover the cyber security issues financial institutions face and the vulnerabilities of critical U.S. water and electricity infrastructure systems. The fascinating interviews with cyber experts include insights such as which popular movie of 2007 made Eugene Kaspersky, CEO of the Kaspersky Labs, break out in a cold sweat. Marcus, who specializes in advance intelligence gathering, digital forensic analysis, as well as intrusion detection and prevention, will lead a post-screening discussion of the film's major points and the latest on information security, malware, and vulnerability assessment. Tickets: $15 To register or for more information visit www.spymuseum.org

22-24 March 2012 - Charlotte, NC - Charlotte International Cryptologic Symposium

The line up of speakers includes: Ron Lawrence who will open the Crypto Symposium with a short talk about all the events going on in the hotel and about radio collecting and how this came about.
Debbie Anderson, daughter of Joe Desch the man who designed the Navy Cryptanalytic Bombe, is speaking and showing the documentary "The Dayton Codebreakers." Jim Oram of enigma-replica.com will be speaking on: " Restoration techniques of the Enigma" includes the showing of a video on the restorations he has completed. Free tours of Jim's Enigma Shop where Enigmas are restored.
John Alexander, a private collector from UK, will be speaking and offering some views of his Crypto equipment.
Richard Brisson, a collector from Ottawa Canada with website www.campx.ca, recently retired from the Communications Security Establishment Canada, will be speaking on the history and artifacts related to cryptology and espionage.
Dr. David Hatch, of NSA and CCH, will provide a display of a SIGABA Machine. Dr. Nicholas Gessler, Research Associate Information Science & Information Studies, Duke University, Durham, NC.
Gessler will be bringing a wide variety of Historical Cryptologic equipment for display.
LOCATION: Sheraton Charlotte Airport Hotel, 3315 Scott Futrell Dr, Charlotte, NC 28208.
Register at http://www.cc-awa.org/Registration-2012.html
Registration covers both the Cryptologic Symposium and the Antique Radio Charlotte event.

29 March 2012 - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter hosts Deputy Director Mike Sena, Northern California Regional Intelligence Center. He will be speaking about the National Fusion Center Networks' role in the information sharing environment. The meeting will be held at UICC, 2700 45th Avenue, San Francisco (between Sloat/Wawona): 11:30AM no host cocktails; noon - luncheon. $25 member rate with advance reservation and payment; $35 non-member/no reservation. E-mail RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi (please indicate meat or fish) at afiosf@aol.com and mail a check made out to "AFIO" to: Mariko Kawaguchi, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011.

Monday, 2 April 2012, 6:30pm - Washington, DC - "9/11, False Flags, and Black Ops" at International Spy Museum

9/11, False Flags, and Black Ops: An Evening of Debate with David Frum, Jonathan Kay, and Webster Tarpley
Don't be an April Fool. The truth may be out there, but when does the search for it turn into a wild goose chase? Canadian journalist, Jonathan Kay, set out to answer that question with his profile of the 9/11 Trust Movement in his acclaimed book, Among the Truthers: A Journey Through America's Growing Conspiracist Underground. One of the most fascinating people that Kay interviewed is Webster Tarpley. Dr. Tarpley, who has addressed ideas and issues from Venetian history to economic recovery from the current world depression, is the author of 9/11 Synthetic Terror: Made in the USA. He has developed his theories about international governmental involvement in assassinations and the engineering of the 9/11 attacks by rogue actors from the military and intelligence community over many years, beginning with his investigation of the Aldo Moro murder in Italy in the 1980s. Columnist and commentator, David Frum, founder of the FrumForum.com, will moderate this lively Kay-Tarpley discussion about 9/11, nefarious plots, and other conspiracy theories.
WHERE: International Spy Museum: 800 F Street, NW Washington, DC Gallery Place/Chinatown Metrorail Station
TICKETS: Tickets: $15. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Call for Papers and Presentations for London Conference "Understanding and Improving Intelligence Analysis: Learning from other Disciplines" is event to be held 8 June and 13 July 2012 at Brunel University in Uxbridge, West London, UK

The purpose of these two events is to engage in a cross-disciplinary discussion about the value of learning from other fields to improve both the understanding and the practice of intelligence analysis. It will also create the network and infrastructure for an international consortium for the study of intelligence analysis.
Intelligence, like journalism, involves the acquisition, evaluation, and dissemination of information. In 1949, Sherman Kent, described as the father of US intelligence analysis, said: "Intelligence organizations must also have many of the qualities of those of our greatest metropolitan newspapers. …They watch, report, summarize, and analyze. They have their foreign correspondents and home staff…. They have their responsibilities for completeness and accuracy—with commensurately greater penalties for omission and error. . . They even have the problem of editorial control…. Intelligence organizations (should) put more study upon newspaper organization and borrow those phases of it which they require."
The event on 8 June 2012 will be devoted to what we can learn from this comparison between intelligence analysis and journalism. We want to take Sherman Kent's suggestion and expand on it; to look at this comparison from a variety of perspectives to include how new technologies have produced new sources of information and the resulting need to compete for consumers' attention.
But the similarities between intelligence analysis and journalism are not unique. Professionals in other fields—including medicine, the social and behavioural sciences, history and historiography, anthropology and other disciplines engaged in ethnographic research, econometric forecasting, and legal reasoning—also face many similar challenges to those that exist in intelligence analysis, including: Difficulties acquiring information from a wide variety of sources Vetting and evaluating the information that is acquired Deriving understanding and meaning from that information Impact of deadlines, editing, and other production processes on accuracy of analysis and assessment Problems in dissemination and distribution to consumers or customers Managing relationship between producer and consumer (role, responsibility, independence & objectivity) Developing professional infrastructure (recruit, select, train, & develop personnel; code of ethics) Overcoming impact of changing technology and alternative information distribution systems.
The event on 13 July 2012 will be devoted to explaining how practitioners in various non-intelligence fields overcome these kinds of challenges. How are their challenges similar to or different from those that exist in the intelligence arena? What can be learned from the comparison?
We welcome paper and presentation proposals evaluating best practices for overcoming challenges in any non-intelligence field that are analogous to those that exist in the intelligence field, or compares/contrasts challenges in intelligence analysis to those faced by professionals in other disciplines.
To submit a proposal, send an email to Stephen Marrin (stephen.marrin@brunel.ac.uk) by 18 March 2012 with: (1) Name of author/presenter, affiliation/institution and contact information (email and phone); and
(2) Paper Title and Abstract (a brief 200-500 word overview of the paper/presentation)
Notifications of acceptances will be made on or before 1 April 2012.
These events have been funded through a grant from the Brunel University Research and Innovation Fund. They are organized and hosted by Brunel University's Centre for Intelligence and Security Studies in collaboration with University of Mississippi's Center for Intelligence and Security Studies.


For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events


Disclaimers and Removal Instructions

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced for non-profit educational uses by members and WIN subscribers. 

REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs: 

a)  IF YOU ARE A MEMBER -- click here: UNSUBSCRIBE and supply your full name and email address where you receive the WINs. Click SEND, you will be removed from list.  If this link doesn't open a blank email, create one on your own and send to afio@afio.com with the words:  REMOVE FROM WINs as the subject, and provide your full name and email address where you are currently receiving them.

 b) IF YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER, and you received this message, someone forwarded this newsletter to you [contrary to AFIO policies]. Forward to afio@afio.com the entire WIN or message you received and we will remove the sender from our membership and distribution lists. The problem will be solved for both of us.

CONTENTS of this WIN [HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents. This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition or for some AOL recipients]. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. The HTML feature also does not work for those who access their e-mail using web mail...however NON-HTML recipients may view the latest edition each week in HTML at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm


WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor(s) or author(s) listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at www.afio.com for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications and much more!

(c) 2000, 2012, AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave Suite 200, McLean, VA 22101. Voice: (703) 790-0320; Fax: (703) 991-1278; Email: afio@afio.com

Click here to return to top.