AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #38-12 dated 2 October 2012

[Editors' Note: The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.]
If you are having difficulties with the links or viewing this newsletter when it arrives by email, members may view the latest edition each week at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm You will need your LOGIN NAME and your PASSWORD.
REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs, click here:

CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Books, Obituaries and Coming Events

Books

Obituaries

Coming Educational Events

Current Calendar New and/or Next Two Months ONLY

SPYPEDIA Updates as of September 27 - if you are not a subscriber, this is what you are missing:

In economic espionage news this week, Sixing "Steve" Liu was convicted yesterday on 9 of 11 charges of exporting sensitive U.S. military technology to the People's Republic of China. He is scheduled to be sentenced on 07 January 2013 and faces a maximum 20 year sentence and deportation. Ming Suan Zhange, a Chinese businessman, was also charged yesterday with attempting to purchase aerospace carbon fiber to be used in the testing of a new Chinese fighter jet.
SPYPEDIA has expanded its section on state sponsorship of terrorism, whether current, former, or alleged, including:

  • Iran's use of Hezbollah to support its foreign policy objectives in proxy wars with its neighbors
  • Syria's role in providing weapons, haven, and safe transit for Iran to supply Hezbollah
  • Sudan's complicity in hosting various terrorist groups such as al Qaeda, Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Hezbollah, as well as its involvement in supporting insurgent groups in neighboring African countries
  • Pakistan and the continuing reports suggesting its contacts with the Afghan Taliban, and the allegations that the ISI directly supports and coordinates with the Haqqani Network
  • Cuba's support for FARC and other armed insurgencies and terrorist activities in Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as its relationships with other state sponsors of terror
  • Libya's state-directed complex and devastating attacks against the United States and United Kingdom in the 1980s, including the bombing of a West Berlin disco populated with US soldiers and the destruction of Pan Am Flight 203 over Lockerbie, Scotland
  • North Korea's state-directed attacks against South Korean targets in the 1980s, including the assassination of South Korean cabinet members and the bombing of a South Korean Air Flight
We appreciate your subscription and urge you to continue to login to SPYPEDIA on a daily basis to stay abreast of the latest espionage, counterterrorism, security and cybersecurity news from around the globe. All new additions can be found by simply navigating to the "New Content" tab, which features the most recent updates in the SPYPEDIA database

About SPYPEDIA®

SPYPEDIA® is the first online database of its kind to be offered to private and government security and intelligence professionals from around the world to include educators, academics, students, and all who share an interest in Security, CI and CT. The research and development of this project began 17 years ago with the ultimate objective of developing the world's most comprehensive, informative, and up to date library of data. The database provides critical information available to download for security briefings and a multitude of research projects, along with countless hours of original podcasts and videos providing analysis and lessons learned. Additional information is available online at www.cicentre.com. Subscribe to SPYPEDIA with a 30% discount. Use code SPY30

-Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies (CI Centre)


 

We Thank Our Speakers at AFIO's FALL LUNCHEON

held last FRIDAY, 28 September 2012

Lt Gen Michael T. Flynn, DIA
Michael T. Flynn, Lt. Gen. USA
The Director of the
Defense Intelligence Agency

spoke on "New Enemy Emerging In Aftermath Of 'Arab Spring'"
and "The Need for Well-Trained, Sophisticated, Intelligence Professionals"

and

Colonel Rose Mary Sheldon- - -

Colonel Rose Mary Sheldon, PhD
Professor of History at Virginia Military Institute

spoke on "AMBUSH: Surprise Attack in Ancient Greek Warfare
and Lessons for Today"

and thank the Spy Museum Bookshop for the display & sales of the latest books on intelligence topics.

Spy Museum Bookshop

More photos from the event are available here.


Last Call to Apply for New Internships and Scholarships
from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
Deadline: October 12, 2012

Agency Mission

National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) is the nation's source of geospatial intelligence. As a Department of Defense combat support agency and a member of the US IC, NGA provides imagery, geospatial and targeting analysis, along with image sciences and modeling for national defense, disaster relief, and safety of navigation. They also provide global support to our IC mission partners through NGA representatives stationed around the world. Headquartered in Springfield, VA, NGA operates major facilities in the Washington D.C. and in St. Louis, MO metro areas.

Position Description

1.       Interns/Temporary Hire Students perform a variety of functions and tasks in support of the organization to which they are assigned. Work assignments will involve problem identification, analysis, and resolution.  Specific duties may include the preparation and presentation of briefings directly related to work assigned.  Interns/Temporary Student Hire appointment terminates upon graduation or when the student no longer attends school, even if the expiration date on the current appointment has not been reached. However, ALL student hires who successfully complete their degree and internship requirements are considered for full-time employment upon graduation! PDF describing the internship program is here.

2.       Stokes Program Scholars perform a variety of functions and tasks in support of the organization to which they are assigned.  Work assignments will involve problem identification, analysis, and resolution.  Scholars must be in attendance at and enrolled in a baccalaureate or associate program.  They are placed on temporary student appointments as full-time employees, and attend their universities full-time during the traditional academic year, and work as full-time interns for a minimum of ten weeks over summer breaks. Their appointment expires no later than 120 days after completion of degree requirements. In accordance with NGA mission needs, permanent positions with NGA will be offered to scholars who perform successfully during work periods and complete program requirements.  Women, minorities, and people with disabilities are strongly encouraged to apply. PDF describing the scholarship program is here.

Stokes Scholarship Benefits:

•         Up to $18,000 per year for tuition, mandatory fees, books, and supplies
•         Annual, year-round salary
•         Health Insurance
•         Life Insurance
•         Retirement Plan
•         Full-time employment upon graduation

Application Instructions:

For official consideration all applications must be submitted through the NGA website: www.nga.mil under "CAREERS" click "Current Openings" and search for "Stokes Program Scholar" OR "Temporary Hire Student"
or go directly to https://erecruit.nga.mil/

Relevant academic majors for the program includes the following: 

Accounting, Business , Technology, Cartography, Computer Science, Cultural Area Studies, Environmental Science, Foreign Language Studies, Geodesy, Geography (Physical, Political, Demographic, or Regional), Geology, Geospatial Information Systems, Geophysics, Hydrology, Imagery Science, International Affairs, Human Resources, Finance, Marine Science, Mathematics, Military and Foreign Affairs, National Security or Intelligence Studies, Photogrammetry, Physical Science, Remote Sensing, Social Science, and many other related degree programs.

Follow the online instructions to submit the application.  Ensure that an email confirming submission has been received. Should any issues arise please contact the NGA Recruitment Center: 571-557-1999 or recruitment@nga.mil

Applications will be accepted September 4 – October 12, 2012.

For more information, including position descriptions visit www.nga.mil


CALL FOR PAPERS

Dr. Kent Sieg, NSA's Center for Cryptologic History, has announced the following on their next Biennial Cryptologic History Symposium to be held October 10-11, 2013, at Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory's Kossiakoff Center in Laurel, MD. Subject of this symposium will be: "Technological Change and Cryptology: Meeting the Historical Challenges."  Further information.

--------------------------------------
CALL FOR PAPERS: Cryptologic History Symposium
The National Security Agency's Center for Cryptologic History sponsors a biennial Cryptologic History Symposium, and the next conference will be held 10-11 October 2013.  Historians from the Center, the Intelligence Community, the defense establishment, and the military services, as well as distinguished scholars from American and foreign academic institutions, veterans of the profession, graduate and undergraduate students, and the interested public all will gather for two days of reflection and debate on relevant and important topics from the cryptologic past.
Past symposia have featured scholarship that set out new ways to consider out cryptologic heritage, and this one will be no exception.  The intended goal is to foster discussion on how cryptology has impacted political, diplomatic, economic, and military tactics, operations, strategy, planning, and command and control throughout history.  Any serious researcher whose work touches upon the historical aspects of cryptology defined in its broadest sense is encouraged to participate.  The conference will provide many opportunities for interaction with leading historians and other distinguished experts.
The mix of practitioners, scholars, and interested observes always precipitates a lively debate promoting an enhanced appreciation for the context of past events. 
The theme for the upcoming conference will be "Technological Change and Cryptology: Meeting the Historical Challenges."  The practice and application of cryptanalysis and cryptography have been radically altered as the evolution of technology has accelerated.  Conference participants will delve into the technical, scientific, methodological, political, and industrial underpinnings of signals intelligence and information assurance as presented throughout a broad swath of history.  While presenters may choose to focus on purely technological topics, the panels will include papers on a broad range of related operational, organizational, counterintelligence, policy, and international themes.  The audience will be particularly interested in new findings on the intersection of technology and cryptology as signals systems evolved from manual to machine-assisted to digital formats. 

The Symposium will be held at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory's Kossiakoff Center, in Laurel, Maryland, a location central to the Baltimore, Maryland, and Washington, D.C., areas.  At this time, interested persons are invited to submit proposals for a single presentation or even a full panel.  The topics can relate to this year's theme, but all serious work on any unclassified aspect of cryptologic history will be considered.  Proposals should include an abstract for each paper as well as biographical sketches for each presenter.  To submit proposals or form more information on this conference, contact Dr. Kent Sieg, the Symposium Executive Director, by telephone at 301-688-2336 or via email at kgsieg@nsa.gov

 

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Office of the Director of National Intelligence Tries to Explain Evolving Intelligence on Benghazi. Shawn Turner, the spokesman for the Director of National Intelligence issued a statement Friday trying to explain the changing explanations of what happened after the U.S. diplomatic post in Benghazi was attacked, an area that has brought much scrutiny and criticism to the Obama administration in recent days.

"In the aftermath of the terrorist attack on U.S. personnel and facilities in Benghazi, Libya, the Intelligence Community launched a comprehensive effort to determine the circumstances surrounding the assault and to identity the perpetrators." Turner writes. "We also reviewed all available intelligence to determine if there might be follow-on attacks against our people or facilities in Libya or elsewhere in the world. As the Intelligence Community collects and analyzes more information related to the attack, our understanding of the event continues to evolve."

First, Turner says, in the immediate aftermath of the attack, which resulted in the deaths of four Americans including U.S. Ambassador to Libya Chris Stevens, "there was information that led us to assess that the attack began spontaneously following protests earlier that day at our embassy in Cairo. We provided that initial assessment to Executive Branch officials and members of Congress, who used that information to discuss the attack publicly and provide updates as they became available. Throughout our investigation we continued to emphasize that information gathered was preliminary and evolving."

But intelligence came in that caused officials to revise their "initial assessment to reflect new information indicating that it was a deliberate and organized terrorist attack carried out by extremists," Turner writes. [Read more: Tapper/ABCNews/28September2012]

Canada Uses Real Spies in Recruiting Video. Real spies are appearing in recruiting videos posted online by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service.

Five CSIS videos featuring real employees were posted on YouTube last week, describing various positions the agency would like to fill, the Globe and Mail reported.

The agents use only their first names, although it isn't clear if those are their real names.

Their faces are clearly visible in the videos, in which they recreate situations in various cities of what agents can face. It also isn't known if the agents work in the specialty fields they describe.

In one of the videos, taped in Montreal, a female host identifies herself as Andrea and says, "I'm a follower and a wallflower and I'm good at it."

CSIS said its agents would tour job fairs this fall to recruit new employees, the report said. [Read more: UPI/27September2012]

Moran Says Bill May Reduce Spy Recruitment. Foreign intelligence agencies often recruit spies and double agents within the American government by targeting federal employees in financial distress. Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.) says the passage of a bill in the House of Representatives today will prevent those intelligence agencies from finding financially-troubled feds with only a few clicks of the mouse.

Moran applauded the passage of bill S. 3625, which will delay certain provisions of the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act from taking effect. The provisions would have required automatic online posting of the financial disclosure forms of 28,000 senior federal employees (GS-15 and SES level). The forms could reveal information about employees' stock portfolio, real estate investments, and retirement funds. [Read more: ARLNow/28September2012]

U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence's Information Technology Center Welcomes New Commanding Officer. The Office of Naval Intelligence's (ONI) Hopper Information Services Center welcomed a new commanding officer in a ceremony at ONI's headquarters Sept. 27. Capt. Mike Studeman relieved Capt. Christopher Page.

Studeman has served in a variety of critical intelligence positions during his 24 year Navy career. Most recently, he served on the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV) staff as director of Unmanned Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) programs. At ONI he leads a Navy Echelon III command responsible for the rapid and reliable delivery of intelligence to customers, worldwide, and ensuring secure Naval telecommunications.

ONI Commander Capt. Robert Rupp emphasized the Hopper Center's broad responsibilities as he welcomed Studeman to his new command.

"The mission here is the maintaining and modernizing of a networked computing and telecommunications structure that is secure, stable and effectively networked and integrated and fully interoperable; this in the midst of a dynamic environment to ensure that these architectures are compatible with the Department of Defense, Department of the Navy and the intelligence community," Rupp said. [Read more: DefPro/1October2012]

Intelligence Exits Washington, Vacancies Rise. A guard clutching an assault rifle and another with a German Shepherd block the entrance to a parking garage on a quiet street in Arlington, Virginia, gateway to the Defense Intelligence Agency.

Heavy security at 3100 Clarendon Boulevard may not be necessary next year when the DIA, whose mandate is to protect the U.S. from surprise attacks, is scheduled to leave the 250,000 square-foot (23,000 square-meter) building. 

Office vacancies in the Washington area have risen to the highest since 1991, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, as the government implements the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Act and other cost-cutting efforts. Another $1.2 trillion of automatic spending cuts are projected over the next nine years as part of last year's Budget Control Act, a deficit reduction plan agreed to by Congress and President Barack Obama, adding pressure to landlords including Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) who are scrambling to find new tenants for buildings housing contractors and some of the Washington area's most secret agencies.

"Certain submarkets are going to suffer when these move outs occur, exposing a lot of space that all of a sudden is going to be on the market," said Lad Duncan, a Charlotte, North Carolina-based analyst for Wells Fargo Securities LLC.

Government agencies with leases set to expire because of base realignments and closures occupy more than 4.5 million square feet of office space in Arlington and Alexandria, Virginia that will be free by 2015, the bank estimates. More than a third of the leases are slated to expire by the end of the year. [Read more: Perlberg/Bloomberg/2October2012]

Former NSA Director Urges National Debate on Cybersecurity. The US National Security Agency (NSA), the electronic eavesdropping and cyberwarfare arm of the Department of Defense (DOD), has the most sophisticated cyberattack and defense capabilities in the world. But the agency lacks the legal authority to defend America's privately-owned critical infrastructure from attack.

That was the message from Michael Hayden, a former director of both the NSA and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who spoke Sept. 27 at the 3rd Annual Billington Cybersecurity Summit in Washington, DC. Hayden characterized the NSA's offensive and defensive cyber capabilities as "awesome," but added that current legal restrictions that bar domestic eavesdropping by intelligence agencies and Constitutional protections against unreasonable searches and seizures have prevented the US from defending itself against an ever increasing onslaught of cyberattacks.

The nation has not given the government detailed information about what it wants the government to do when it comes to defending the nation from cyberattacks, Hayden said, noting that the disconnect stems from the simultaneous use of networks by both military and civilian organizations. So, while NSA and DOD view these networks as a so-called "warfighting domain," they are restricted in what they can do to monitor and protect those networks because of laws designed to protect privacy and ensure other protections for US citizens. The policy and legal gray area has put DOD at odds with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which has taken the lead cybersecurity role for civilian and non-defense networks. [Read more: Verton/HSToday/1October2012]

Austrade Suspected Vietnam Agent was a Spy. The Australian government had long-standing suspicions that a Reserve Bank company was using a foreign intelligence officer as a sales agent, but continued to deal with him, a court has heard.

Austrade's former senior commissioner to Vietnam, Patrick Stringer, was cross-examined yesterday during a committal hearing involving eight former Reserve Bank company executives accused of false accounting or conspiring to bribe foreign officials to win banknote contracts.

When asked about a 2007 Austrade report stating that Securency agent Colonel Anh Ngoc Luong had "probable" links to the Vietnamese intelligence service, Mr Stringer said: "We had known - we the embassy had had suspicions of his status for many years."

Mr Stringer, who was posted in Vietnam between 2006 and 2008, was asked whether the source of those suspicions was rumour or something more credible, and he said: "More concrete information." [Read more: BrisbaneTimes/2October2012]

German Intelligence Pessimistic on Afghanistan. German intelligence is pessimistic about the prospects for stability in Afghanistan after almost 11 years of war, according to an internal analysis published on Sunday by Der Spiegel.

The German intelligence service (BND) considers the security situation to be critical, expecting an increase in attacks against Western soldiers, according to the report entitled "Afghanistan until 2014 - a forecast."

Following the planned withdrawal of Western combat troops in 2014, up to 35,000 foreign soldiers will be necessary, mostly to train the Afghan army, the BND analysis said. They will need to be combat troops to provide force protection and in some cases, they will have to be special operations forces to fight terrorism, it said. [Read more: TheNews/1October2012]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Is CIA Chief Petraeus Running for President - of Princeton?  A college newspaper has set off a wave of speculation that David Petraeus, the general-turned-CIA-spy-chief, might want to leave his job to become president - of Princeton University.

Petraeus, 59, has long been suspected of harboring political ambitions but he has sometimes fended off questions about a possible White House run by joking that he aspires to be president of Princeton University, where he earned graduate degrees.

However, a long article in the university's student newspaper, The Daily Princetonian, published Thursday suggested the cerebral former general may be serious about leaving the country's most powerful intelligence service to lead the Ivy League school.

Asked about the speculation, Petraeus issued a statement that left open questions about his future.

"I think I've made my respect and admiration for the great faculty and student body of Princeton University very clear, and I will reiterate that now.

"As it currently stands, however, I am living the dream here at CIA," his statement said.

The job at Princeton will soon be open as the current president, Shirley Tilghman, has announced she will be stepping down at the end of this academic year. [Read more: AFP/29September2012]

Profile: DNI James Clapper. James Clapper, a retired lieutenant general in the U.S. Air Force, serves as the country's fourth director of national intelligence, where he leads the intelligence community and acts as the president's lead intelligence adviser.

He was sworn in as DNI in August 2010, nearly six years after completing his tenure as director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, known as the National Imagery and Mapping Agency when he joined the agency as director in 2001.

Clapper's government service also includes three years in two administrations as the defense under secretary for intelligence, where he served as the principal staff assistant and adviser to the secretary and deputy secretary on intelligence, counterintelligence and security matters for the department, where he also served as director of defense intelligence.

Directly following his retirement, he worked in industry for six years as an executive in three successive companies focusing on business in the intelligence community. He also served as a consultant and adviser to Congress, to the departments of Defense and Energy and as a member of several government panels, boards, commissions, and advisory groups.

He served in the Downing Assessment Task Force that investigated the Khobar Towers bombing in 1996, and was vice chairman of a homeland security commission chaired by former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore.

During Clapper's 32-year military career, he served as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency; assistant chief of staff for intelligence at U.S. Air Force Headquarters during Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm; and director of intelligence for U.S. Forces Korea, Pacific Command and Strategic Air Command.

He started his career as a rifleman in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve, served two combat tours during the Southeast Asia conflict and flew 73 combat support missions in EC-47s over Laos and Cambodia. [Read more: Wilkers/ExecutiveGov/27September2012]

When the Swiss Aren't Neutral: Chocolates and the CIA. On Sept. 25, Switzerland's highest court brought a long-winded case to a close, convicting three Swiss engineers - a father and his two sons - of selling nuclear equipment to Libya. The Swiss were scandalized, but not by what you'd think.

Friedrich Tinner, 74, and his sons, Marco, 43, and Urs, 46,were arrested in 2004 and sentenced to 24, 41 and 50 months respectively. They were immediately released, taking into account the time they already served in detention, as well as their cooperation with the CIA, which led to the dismantling of the network they had been a part of.

But what the Swiss remember most about the case is not that the Tinners worked for the network operated by Abdul Qadeer Khan, the notorious "father" of the Pakistani atom bomb, who supplied Libya, North Korea and Iran with the nuclear-weapons technology. What they recall is a widespread rumor that the CIA ordered the shredding of tens of thousands of pages of the Tinners' documents in 2007 to hide its involvement in the case.

The allegation was never proved, and Swiss authorities said at the time that they destroyed the documents because the blueprints and plans posed a security risk. But the implication that a foreign government might have meddled in Switzerland's affairs riled up the citizens more than the shredding itself. "We are not the stooges of the CIA or the United States," fumed Christoph Blocher, who served as the Justice Minister at the time. [Read more: Bachmann/Time/28September2012]


Section III - COMMENTARY

Why The Best Spies in Mossad And The CIA Are Women. I have a friend who can look her husband straight in the eyes, even when confronted with irrefutable evidence, and convincingly swear that her 'this season' Louboutins was purchased for an obscene discount from a hawker in Canal Street [not true - I've watched her in action on Fifth Avenue]. Another has the passwords of her boyfriend's e-mail and social networking accounts while he, of course, is blissfully unaware that his every virtual move is being monitored by his seemingly un-tech savvy girlfriend.

When I share the chilling tittle-tattle with my friend Jimmy, he kindly describes them as "undercover angels." "Women," he offers, "are born with an extra strand in their DNA. Men can fidget around with gadgets, but women have an antenna inside them. They're born spies."

As flippant as it may sound, there may be something to Jimmy's observations.

Last week, in a stunning departure from protocol, the head of Mossad - Israel's national intelligence agency - singled out his female field agents for praise. "Women have a distinct advantage in secret warfare because of their ability to multitask," Tamir Pardo said to Israel's Lady Globes. He also added that women are "better at playing a role" and superior to men when it comes to "suppressing their ego in order to attain the goal."

"Women are gifted at deciphering situations. Contrary to stereotypes, you see that women's abilities are superior to men in terms of understanding the territory, reading situations, spatial awareness. When they're good, they're very good."

Wait - hold fire. So can we infer from this that we're better at map-reading and navigating the streets?  [Read more:  Ziegler/Forbes/30September2012]

Couple in Germany Charged with Spying on NATO for Russia. It seems the Cold War never ended. In yet another spy revelation like others embroiling Russia in recent years a man and a woman have been charged with espionage. This time they were discovered in Germany.

It all reportedly goes back to 1988 when the Soviet Union, the Berlin Wall and the KGB were still standing. Two agents, we know them only by their codenames 'Andreas A.' and 'Heidrun A.', arrived in South West Germany. They had come from South America but carried fake Austrian passports. He purportedly started work as an engineer and they settled into a seemingly boring, bourgeois life near Stuttgart.

However when a special unit of the German police entered the house in October 2011 they caught Heidrun A. red handed. She was sat at her radio equipment communicating with Moscow. She was so shocked she fell off her chair dragging wires out of the wall with her. Andreas A was arrested elsewhere in Germany.

They had not been living a bourgeois life at all but had been busy stealing information on NATO and EU strategy and passing it to the SVR, the Russian foreign intelligence agency, a successor to the KGB. They had a contact inside the Dutch Foreign Ministry who passed them secret information via a dead letterbox. They were in constant contact with the SVR in Moscow and were being paid 100,000 euros a year to do their spying. They have now been charged with espionage, charges which they deny.

For the SVR and Russia it's another potentially huge embarrassment. [Read more: RT/28September2012]

What if We're Wrong on Iran? As the U.S. contemplates whether to attack Iran's nuclear facilities, intelligence community leaders should be asking themselves a question: What if we're wrong?

That question wasn't asked - or at least wasn't answered - in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq war, with devastating consequences. Before giving up on containment or deterrence polices and undertaking a "preventive war" against a nation that has not attacked the United States, we should be as certain as possible of the evidence.

Iran today presents an even murkier intelligence picture than Iraq did in 2003. We have not had a diplomatic presence there since 1979 and have had to rely on intelligence collected through technology, international inspectors and foreign intelligence relationships. In the absence of solid intelligence, the intelligence community has had to fall back on its own assumptions or mind-sets regarding Iran's nuclear program and make educated guesses about how its government would probably operate its programs. Our assessments of Iran's military capabilities have had to rely in part on our understanding of how American weapon developers conduct tests and develop weapons. Such analytic assumptions have and can again lead to incorrect conclusions.

So what can be done to avert another military strike based on devastatingly wrong intelligence estimates? How can we avoid terrible mistakes, followed by commission investigations and finger-pointing? [Read more: George/LosAngelesTImes/2October2012]

When Intel Meets the Political Debate. The intersection of intelligence reporting and policymaking is tricky.

I've often likened the dynamic to a room in which intelligence and policy must meet, though each enters through different doors. Intelligence professionals bring to the conversation facts, data and evidence; thinking inductively, they try to use them to draw generalized conclusions. They should see the world as it is and, consequently, find it hard to escape a generally pessimistic attitude. 

Policymakers, on the other hand, tend to be more optimistic, envisioning the world as we would want it to be, thinking deductively as they try to apply a set of generalized principles - the ones that got them elected - to specific situations.

Even in the best of times, the burden on intelligence is heavy, as it is the intelligence professional's task to get into the heads of policymakers and deepen the officials' understanding. That must be done without breaking the linkage to his fact-based, dark, inductive, world-as-it-is roots. Often this means making life more difficult and more complicated for the policymaking consumer.

This is especially true when policymaking blends into partisan electoral politics and the interpretation of intelligence becomes part of the political debate.

That's a minefield in which few intelligence professionals would want to wander, so many were surprised last week when the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) seemed to voluntarily enter the fray with a news release broadly outlining the course of intelligence assessments of the Sept. 11 attack on two U.S. facilities in Benghazi, Libya, and the death of four Americans, including Ambassador Chris Stevens.

It was an unusual step. [Read more: Hayden/WashingtonPost/1October2012]


Section IV - Books, Obituaries and Coming Events


Books

Because No One Else Can: Inside the Military Intelligence Secret Sausage Factory. "Because No One Else Can" is a textbook. But, some may want to read it as part textbook, part "Playbook," part history book, part intelligence primer for the uninitiated and part Military Intelligence career memoir. This book is basically divided into three sections; Nicholson Sea Stories, the wisdom of some of the best analysts in the Intelligence Community as imparted in the Epilogue by "The Tribal Elders" and the Annexes, more than fifty Operational Plans, SOPs, Operational Security Templates, memoranda, Concepts of Operation, Matrixes and more. It is a guide for the young analyst or manager but also a "look inside" for those who know little of the Military Intelligence Community and always wanted a tour through the "Secret Sausage Factory" but were forbidden. In Post-9/11 America, everyone has a "need to know." This book explains why today we are all in the intelligence business. The Intelligence Community - military, government and private - has got to be better than it ever has been before. Everybody had better start sharing. Elitism, exaggerated classification, agency pride and personal egos must be set aside. Otherwise, as a nation we may wind up "Secret Squirreling" ourselves out of business. The average intelligence analyst in every sector knows this and more. Their biggest battles are often with the "Careerists" who achieve rank and authority by never letting a mission get in the way of their advancement. Somehow the analyst drives on. Whether driven by ego or altruism Intel people are a driven breed. They work keenly aware that their work might be an instrument of change affecting some small sliver of society or perhaps a major chunk of the world. They know they can make a difference. Waiting to hear from them are the Decision-Makers; the Commander, the trigger- puller, the Civil Affairs Officer, the politician, the police officer, the investigator, the corporation president and the President of the United States. Though highly-skilled and well-educated, the intelligence professionals work without recognition, career ladder or big paycheck. They do what they do because no one else can. [CreateSpaceIndependentPublishingPlatform/5September2012]


Obituaries

Jack Koehler. Jack Koehler, who fled advancing Soviets as a boy in Germany during World War II, grew up to report from there for The Associated Press and served briefly in Ronald Reagan's White House, has died. He was 82.

Koehler died at his Stamford home Friday, months after being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, said Anne Cron, who was his closest friend.

Born in Dresden, Germany, Koehler served as an interpreter for a U.S. Army unit as a teen after fleeing Soviet forces during the war. After the war, he spent time in Canada before coming to the United States in 1954, where he served in the Army. His duties included intelligence work.

After joining the AP, Koehler was a news correspondent in Berlin and Bonn in his native country before returning to the U.S. to become chief of bureau in Newark, N.J., and work in New York. He retired in 1985 as assistant general manager and managing director of world services.

Koehler was friends with Reagan and served briefly in his administration, when it became public that Koehler had belonged to a Nazi youth group at age 10. He resigned after just a week on the job as White House communications director in 1987, but insisted he didn't leave because of publicity over his involvement in Jungvolk. He described the group as "the Boy Scouts run by the Nazi party." He said he resigned to give the newly named chief of staff his choice of team members.

Koehler went on to start an international consulting firm and held posts that took him overseas.

When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, he was hired by the U.S. Information Agency to travel to Pakistan, Paris and other capitals to assess the problems Afghan guerrillas faced in getting out their message and Western journalists had in trying to report on the conflict.

Later in life, Koehler wrote a pair of books, "Stasi: The Untold Story of the East German Secret Police" and "Spies in the Vatican: The Soviet Union's Cold War Against the Catholic Church."

Cron said Koehler's patriotism probably got its start when he joined the U.S. troops in World War II, serving as something of a mascot for the soldiers in addition to being their interpreter. His birth name, Wolfgang, was legally changed to John after he emigrated, said his friend Heiko Thieme.

"He loved being an American," Cron said.

Thieme, who was friends with Koehler for three decades, said Koehler had a journalist's curiosity and a conservative outlook, and continued to engage in spirited political debates, even in his final days.

Visitation hours are planned for Friday. Koehler will be buried with military honors at Arlington National Cemetery at a later date. [Read more: AP/30September2012]

Joe L. Zaring. Joe L. Zaring, 91, a retired CIA intelligence officer, died of cardiac arrest Sept. 17 at Sibley Memorial Hospital in Washington.

The death was confirmed by his niece Arleen Bedingfield.

Mr. Zaring, a Washington resident, retired in 1981 after 30 years with the CIA. He worked in the Western Europe division of the agency’s Directorate of Intelligence. He was a past chairman of the National Intelligence Council and served on the CIA senior review panel.

He was awarded the National Intelligence Medal of Achievement.

Joe Leroy Zaring was born in American Falls, Idaho. He received a bachelor’s degree from the University of Idaho in 1942 and a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard University in 1950.

He served in the Army in Europe during World War II.

After his retirement from the CIA, Mr. Zaring and his wife worked on restoring and preserving their 200-acre historic farm in Connecticut. In 2001, they donated substantial parts of their land trust to Eastern Connecticut State University in Willimantic.

His memberships included the Harvard Club of Washington and the National Press Club. He was an associate member of the Woman’s National Democratic Club in Washington.

Survivors include his wife of 58 years, Dorothy Church Zaring of Washington. [McDonough/WashingtonPost/1October2012]

William E. Kline. William E. Kline, 76, a retired CIA employee who mostly served as a manager with the spy agency's Foreign Broadcast Information Service, died Sept. 5 at a hospital in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.

He died of a bacterial infection, said his daughter Beth Shoemaker.

Mr. Kline worked for the CIA from 1963 to 1999, initially in the Directorate of Intelligence. With the Foreign Broadcast Information Service, he served in Nigeria, Japan, South Korea and England. In retirement, he was an independent contractor with the broadcast service, which was reorganized in 2005 as the Director of National Intelligence's Open Source Center.

His honors included the CIA Intelligence Medal of Merit.

William Edward Kline was a native of Webster, Pa. After his father's death, he was raised by his mother, who became a postal clerk.

After serving in the Air Force from 1953 to 1957, Mr. Kline graduated in 1961 from Duquesne University in Pittsburgh. He received a master's degree in African studies from Duquesne in 1962 and attended Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government toward the end of his CIA career.

In retirement, he volunteered in homeless shelters through the group Reston Interfaith and completed a computer science degree from Strayer University.

Mr. Kline, a former Reston resident, left the Washington area in 1999 and most recently had been living in Sayulita, Mexico, and teaching there at the Costa Verde International School.

His marriage to Audrey Nemesh ended in divorce.

Survivors include his partner of 17 years, Kathy Nicoletti of Sayulita; four children from his marriage, Amy Thorne of Idaho Falls, Idaho, Jeff Kline of Brisbane, Australia, Beth Shoemaker of Berryville, Va., and Matthew Kline of Overland Park, Kan.; and eight grandchildren. [Bernstein/WashingtonPost/25September2012]


Coming Educational Events

EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

MANY Spy Museum Events in September, October, and beyond, with full details are listed on the AFIO Website at www.afio.com. The titles for some of these are in detail below and online.

Tuesday, 2 October 2012, 8-9 am - Tysons Corner, VA - SPYPEDIA's Global Terrorism Espionage and Cybersecurity is hosting FREE Monthly Briefings
(G-TEC Briefing)
Location: Microsoft Store, Tysons Corner Center Mall, Level 2, Parking Area: P5, Tysons Corner, Virginia.
To Register: 703 642-7450 or email contact@cicentre.com
Seating is limited; Reservations required.

Wednesday, 03 October 20126:30 pm - Washington, DC - The Man Nobody Knew: In Search of My Father, CIA Spymaster William Colby - a screening at the International Spy Museum

"A public convinced of the CIA's value will help protect its true secrets." — William Colby, Honorable Men, 1978.
When Carl Colby decided to make a documentary film on his late father William E. Colby, he found the perfect vehicle for telling the story of American espionage and special operations in the second half of the 20th century. From his days as an OSS Jedburgh officer in WWII; to his assignments in Stockholm, Rome, and Saigon as CIA Station Chief; then as Chief of the Far East Division; followed by Head of CORDS/Pacification Program (and Phoenix Program) during the Vietnam War; and finally as Director of Central Intelligence during the Church and Pike Hearings into CIA wrong-doing in the 1970's; Colby's career is the quintessential spy story. He knew everyone and he knew their secrets. This very personal film includes interviews with veteran CIA officers, OSS veterans, government officials, and nationally recognized journalists. Join Carl Colby for a special screening and discussion of his well-received real life spy thriller.
Tickets: $9. For further information or directions visit www.spymuseum.org

Friday, 5 October 2012, 6-7:30 pm - Washington, DC - "The Precipice of Nuclear Annihilation: Through the Eyes of the Cuban Missile Crisis - 50 Years Later" - talk by former CIA Scientific Officer Gene Poteat at the Institute of World Politics

You are cordially invited to attend a special lecture on the topic of "The Precipice of Nuclear Annihilation: Through the Eyes of the Cuban Missile Crisis Fifty Years Later - The Value of Evidence over Speculation"
by Gene Poteat, current President, Association of Former Intelligence Officers, is a Retired Senior CIA Scientific Intelligence Officer.
With the emergence of unstable nuclear-armed nations and their despotic leaders, what lessons should we have learned from the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 when dealing with today's crises? How was the U.S. blindsided by the Soviet missile build-up in Cuba ...just a few miles south of Florida? How close did we come to a nuclear exchange and, during the showdown, who blinked first? What secret agreements were made that ended the crisis and how did they differ from face-saving press releases? What were the long-term consequences of the agreement that ended the Crisis.
CIA Scientific Officer Gene Poteat was on the scene in 1962. His first-hand account and revelations will answer these questions.
Location: The Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036
Please RSVP to kbridges@iwp.edu.

Tuesday, 9 October 2012, 1130 - 1400 - MacDill AFB, FL - FBI Special Agent discusses Cuba's Wasp Network at the Florida Suncoast Chapter Meeting

Patrick Laflin was a Special Agent with the FBI for over thirty years with extensive investigative and analytical experience in Foreign Counter-intelligence. He is a subject matter expert on the Cuban Intelligence Service and assisted in the arrest of fifteen Cuban spies and illegal officers from Cuba's "Wasp Network" based in Florida during the 1990s.
He retired from the FBI in December, 2005, only to return the following year as the Domain Coordinator for the Tampa Division. The FBI's Domain Program fosters outreach and partnership with public and private entities to protect the national and economic security of the United States through the exchange of information.
Bringing his field experience to life for us, he will be relating the story of Cuban Spies in Florida. Since we all understand the motivations for spying, he will focus on case studies. He will be speaking for a bit over an hour, but we're sure his gripping stories will make the time fly.

Meeting and luncheon at the MacDill AFB Surf's Edge Club, 7315 Bayshore Boulevard, MacDill AFB, FL 33621.
Please RSVP no later than Wednesday, October 3, for yourself and include the names of any guests. Email or call the Chapter Secretary. Check-in at 1130 hours; opening ceremonies, lunch and business meeting at noon, followed by our speaker. Note that our meetings have moved to a new facility, the Surf's Edge Club, where the luncheon cost is $20.
You must present your $20 check payable to "Suncoast Chapter, AFIO" (or cash) at check-in to cover the luncheon. If you make a reservation, don't cancel and get a cancellation confirmation by the response deadline and then don't show up, you will be responsible for the cost of the luncheon. Note that the base is now enforcing a handscan registration for those with ID cards so, if you haven't been on-base recently, you should look into this or allow some extra time when you arrive for the meeting.
Should you not have a 'bumper sticker' or ID card for access to MacDill AFB, please so state in your RSVP. If you have not already submitted information required for the Gate Access List, be sure to include your license number, name on drivers license and state of issue for yourself and for any guests you are bringing on base.
Anyone with special AFIO Gate Access should proceed to the Bayshore Gate. If you need directions, please let us know.
The main gate will send you to the visitor's center and they will not be able to help you enter the base, only give you directions to the Bayshore Gate. The cash wine and soda bar will open at 1100 hours for those that wish to come early to socialize. Inquiries to Michael Shapiro Secretary, Florida Suncoast Chapter of AFIO at (813) 832-1164 or at mfshapiro@att.net or visit www.suncoastafio.org

Wednesday, 10 October 2012, 11:30 am - Scottsdale, AZ - AFIO Arizona Chapter Luncheon features an FBI SSA discussing "The FBI'S WMD information needs, procedures, and structure - and Domestic Terrorism."

Andrew Braun, Supervisory Special Agent (SSA), FBI Phoenix Division, Joint Terrorism Task Force – Weapons of Mass Destruction – Domestic Terrorism.
Presentation will provide a "behind the curtain" view of the FBI's operating pictures as it exists in 2012. It will outline FBI investigative background, direction, strategic operations initiatives, capabilities and collection efforts.
RSVP no later than 72 hours ahead of time; in the past, not reserving or canceling without prior notice (72 hours prior to the meeting) created much grief for those of us organizing the meeting and dealing with the personnel!
WE ARE charged for the no-shows and please remember, we are a small organization with a humble coffer!
We would therefore APPRECIATE that you all respond to this email to confirm your presence (or not).
Our meeting fees will be as follows: $20.00 for AFIO members; $22.00 for guests
LOCATION: McCormick Ranch Golf Course, 7505 McCormick Parkway, Scottsdale AZ 85258 ~ Phone 480.948.0260
For reservations or questions, please email Simone –simone@4smartphone.net or simone@afioaz.org. To call please leave a message on 602.570.6016

Wednesday, 10 October 2012, noon - Washington, DC - Castro's Secrets: The CIA and Cuba's Intelligence Machine - a author book presentation at the International Spy Museum

In Castro's Secrets, Brian Latell, former National Intelligence Officer for Latin America and long-time Cuba analyst, offers a strikingly original image of Fidel Castro as Cuba's supreme spymaster. Latell exposes many long-buried secrets of Castro's lengthy reign, including numerous assassinations and assassination attempts against foreign leaders. In writing this book, Latell spoke with many high-level defectors from Cuba's powerful intelligence and security services; some had never told their stories on the record before. Latell also probed dispassionately into the CIA's most deplorable plots against Cuba, including previously obscure schemes to assassinate Castro and presents shocking new conclusions about what Castro actually knew of Lee Harvey Oswald prior to the assassination of John F. Kennedy.
Join the author for an informal chat and book signing.
Free! For further information or directions visit www.spymuseum.org

16 October 2012, 11:30 am - McLean, VA - DIA Forum hears Col Jore on "Mexico Looks to the Future."

The Defense Intelligence Forum meets at Pulcinella Restaurant to hear Col (ret) Jeffrey D. Jore, USA, will speak on "Mexico Looks to the Future." Specifically, Col Jore will provide a prospective on how Mexico views its relationship with the U.S. and some thoughts on the incoming government of newly elected Mexican President Pena Niete. As a Latin American Foreign Area Officer, Jeff Jore has spent over 30 years studying our relationships with Hispanic countries and is a recognized expert on Latin America. In addition to serving as Defense Attaché (DATT) to Mexico, Jeff Jore has served as DATT to Surinam, Army DATT to Spain and Argentina and Ass't Army DATT to Guatemala. Additionally, he was an exchange officer with the Venezuelan Army. Col Jore also served as the Director, Foreign Intelligence (DAMI-FI), Army Staff, G-2. He is member of Defense Attaché Hall of Fame and currently serving as the SIO in the Latin American Division of the Office of Attaché Operations, DCHC, DIA.
Event is on the record.
Location: Pulcinella Restaurant, 6852 Old Dominion Drive, Mclean, VA. Pay at the door with a check for $29.00 payable to DIAA, Inc Registration starts at 11:30AM, lunch at 12:00 PM. Make reservations by 15 October 2012 by email to diforum@diaalumni.org. Include names, telephone numbers, and email addresses. For each attendee, choose among choose among chicken cacciatore, tilapia puttanesca, Lasagna, sausage with peppers, or fettuccini with portabella for your luncheon selection. Checks are preferred, but will accept cash; however, credit card payments are discouraged.

Tuesday, 16 October 2012 - Annapolis, MD The US Naval Institute and US Naval Academy co-host "The History and Future Challenges of Cyber Power."
The symposium will be held at the Alumni Hall on the Academy Yard in Annapolis, Maryland. Gen James Cartwright, USMC (Ret.), Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, will begin the session as the morning keynote. The program will include a luncheon keynote address by Kevin Mitnick and two panels:
Combating Cyber Warfare: The Evolution of Alliances Between the Public and Private Sectors
Forging the Links for Cyber Operations: Command, Control, and Policy
The keynote speakers and panelists will include renowned active-duty and civilian experts and leaders in the field ranging from preeminent historians to those on the cutting edge of cyber power in the armed forces, government, the private sector, and academia.
To register or for additional information visit http://www.usnihistoryconference.org.

Wednesday, 17 October 2012, 6:30 – 8:30 pm - Washington, DC - "Minute-by-Minute: The Role of Intelligence in the Cuban Missile Crisis: A Hands-on Simulation" at the International Spy Museum. Event features AFIO President Gene Poteat.

For two weeks in October 1962, the world held its breath while President Kennedy and Premier Khruschev navigated one of the most intense showdowns of the Cold War. Marking the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, this hands-on workshop offers participants an insider view into this pivotal event in history. Experience the drama surrounding the Soviet attempt to secretly place ballistic missiles in Cuba. Learn how raw intelligence, analysis, and back channel exchanges enabled, or in some cases hindered, Kennedy as he sought to avert a nuclear war. Step into the shoes of a CIA analyst in October 1962 through a simulation using declassified U-2 photographs and documents to make recommendations to President Kennedy at various stages of the crisis. Following the simulation, Eugene Poteat, a retired senior CIA Scientific Intelligence Officer will speak about overhead reconnaissance and its role in the Cuban Missile Crisis and his personal experience during this tense time. Tickets: $15. To register visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 17 October 2012, 0915 - 1500 - Laurel, MD - The Annual NCMF General Membership Meeting

HOLD DATE ON YOUR CALENDAR: The event takes place at the JHU/APL Kossiakoff Center in Laurel, Maryland.
Registration and breakfast are from 0800-0900. The morning session will open with outgoing NCMF President, Mr. Eugene Becker, who will introduce the new NCMF President, Mr. Richard Schaeffer, to the membership. At 0915, NSA Deputy Director, Mr. Chris Inglis, will give the opening remarks. The remainder of the morning will feature DIA Director, Lt Gen Michael Flynn, who has been invited to be keynote speaker and Mr. Patrick Weadon, who will give an update on the National Cryptologic Museum. Lunch will be served from 1200-1300.
The afternoon session will be held from 1300-1500 and features Joel Brenner, author of America the Vulnerable: Inside the New Threat Matrix of Digital Espionage, Crime and Warfare who has been invited to speak on the cyber security threat to the civilian sector. The afternoon also features a panel of SCE senior commanders, chaired by Billy Bingham, Brig Gen, Ret., discussing cyber and how it pertains to their overall mission. Rod Isler, Maj Gen, Ret., will close the program with an update on the New Museum Project. Program agenda is at www.cryptologicfoundation.org. Fee: $20pp NCMF members; $40pp nonmembers.
Registration: email or mail your name, name of any guests, telephone #, to cryptmf@aol.com. Credit cards accepted are Amex, MasterCard, Visa. If you have questions, email cryptmf@aol.com   

20 October 2012, 2:30 pm - Kennebunk, ME - "The Truth Behind CIA's Detention and Interrogation Program" the subject of the Maine Chapter Meeting.

With his twenty-six years of experience in CIA's Directorate of Operations and Directorate of Science and Technology, James Cotsana is well qualified to speak on the issue.  As a department chief at the Counterintelligence Center he established and oversaw a highly successful program focused on identifying and disrupting terrorist plans and plots while identifying methods of operation.  Jim has served in senior positions with CIA in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.   He served as an infantry officer in Vietnam.  Now fully retired,  he volunteers with Hospice House in Concord, N.H. and the Concord-Merrimack SPCA.  The meeting will be held Saturday, October 20, 2012 at 2:30 p.m.( Please note change in meeting time)  at the Brick Store Museum Program Center, 2 Dane Street, Kennebunk, ME. and is open to the public.  For information call:  207-967-4298

23 October 2012 - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter hosts CIA Officer Richard Holm.

Richard Holm, former CIA, will be speaking about his newly published autobiography, The Craft We Chose: My Life in the CIA. The discussion will be followed by a book signing. The meeting will be held at the World Affairs Council, 312 Sutter Street, SF from 2:15PM - 4:00PM. RSVP is mandatory. E-mail RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi at afiosf@aol.com and mail a check made out to "AFIO" to: Mariko Kawaguchi, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011. Members and students: $15; non-members $20.

25-27 October 2012 - Gregynog Hall, Wales , UK - The Cuban Missile Crisis: A Fifty Year Retrospective Assessment - A Cambridge UK Intelligence Seminar!

Call for Papers.  Delegate registration. Places now available!  First come first served!

This autumn sees the fiftieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the quintessential Cold War crisis which Arthur Schleslinger, Jr. termed 'the most dangerous moment in human history'.  In order to mark this seminal event the Centre for Intelligence and International Security Studies (CIISS) at Aberystwyth University and the Cambridge Intelligence Group (seminar), University of Cambridge are hosting a major international conference at Gregynog Hall (http://www.wales.ac.uk/en/UniversityConferenceCentre/GregynogHall.aspx) in the idyllic setting of rural Wales.  The conference will seek to address the legacies and lessons of the  Cuban Missile Crisis by means of a number of papers and roundtable discussions.  The conference will feature contributions from a number of the most eminent international scholars of nuclear history, intelligence, espionage, political science and the Cold War.  The continuing relevance of the lessons of 1962 cannot be overstated and this  multidisciplinary conference will be of interest to intelligence professionals, historians, political scientists, sociologists, and policymakers.

Speakers include:

Professor Christopher Andrew (University of Cambridge, official historian of MI5)
Professor Len Scott (CIISS, Aberystwyth University)
Dr. Michael S. Goodman (King's College London, Official Historian of the UK JIC)
H. Keith Melton (Intelligence specialist)
Professor Don Munton (University of Northern British Columbia)

Book now to avoid disappointment! (http://www.wales.ac.uk/en/UniversityConferenceCentre/GregynogHall.aspx)
Gold Pass CMC2012: Full-board and Conference Fee (including Conference Dinner and Wine receptions): £325 all inclusive
In order to be considered as a presenter please provide a 300 word abstract and your institutional affiliation to: David Gioe (dvg21@cam.ac.uk) Cambridge Intelligence Seminar, University of Cambridge.

Please return all booking forms to: Dr. Kris Stoddart (kds@aber.ac.uk) Centre for Intelligence and International Security Studies, Aberystwyth University
For further information please e-mail kds@aber.ac.uk or David Gioe, (dvg21@cam.ac.uk) Cambridge Intelligence Seminar, University of Cambridge

27 October 2012, 6 - 10 pm - Washington, DC - The OSS Society Donovan Award Dinner Honors Former SECDEF Robert M. Gates

The 2012 William J. Donovan Award Dinner is scheduled and honors former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Event location: The Ritz-Carlton Hotel, 1150 22nd St NW, Washington DC. Black Tie/Mess Dress. Registration and additional information is available here. Tickets $225 per person; Sponsorships range from $1000 to $25000. Review and complete the following PDF.

Saturday, 27 October 2012, 9:30 am - Fairfax, VA - Book Signing / Conference - The Cold War Museum hosts "Cuban Missile Crisis - 50 Years Later" - at George Mason University

Cuban Missile Crisis Conference and Book Signing with Sergei Khrushchev. The Cold War Museum in conjunction with the Department of History & Art History at George Mason University (GMU) will convene a distinguished panel of historians, authors, and first hand participants to discuss and commemorate the 50th anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis. This FREE half day program will be held in the Harris Theater on the main campus of GMU, 4400 University Drive in Fairfax, Virginia. Seating is limited. Pre registration required. Program starts at 10:00 a.m. Immediately following the conference there will be a book signing reception.
Sergei Khrushchev, son of Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev and author of "Nikita Khrushchev and the creation of a superpower" will provide the keynote address. Martin J. Sherwin, Pulitzer Prize winning author on Robert J. Oppenheimer and GMU History Professor, Michael Dobbs, Washington Post Reporter and author of "One Minute to Midnight," and Svetlana Savranskaya, editor of "The Soviet Cuban Missile Crisis" and National Security Archive's Director for Russian Archives and Institutes will conduct a roundtable discussion following Khrushchev's remarks.
U-2 pilot Colonel Buddy Brown (USAF, Ret) and F8U-1P Crusaders pilot Lt. Commander Tad Riley (USN, Ret) who overflew Cuban SA-2 missile sites during the crisis will discuss their mission objectives and recollections. Photographic interpreter, Dino Brugioni, author of "Eyeball to Eyeball", who briefed President Kennedy on the photos taken over Cuba, will provide a dramatic first hand account of the behind the scene activities of the Kennedy administration during those tense thirteen days in October 1962.
Immediately following the conference, there will be a book signing and sale with Sergei Khrushchev ("Nikita Khrushchev and the Creation of a Superpower"), Dino Brugioni ("Eyeball to Eyeball"), Michael Dobbs ("One Minute to Midnight"), Ken Jack (co-author "Blue Moon over Cuba: Aerial Reconnaissance during the Cuban Missile Crisis"), Norman Polmar and John D. Gresham ("DEFCON 2: Standing on the Brink of Nuclear War During the Cuban Missile Crisis"), Svetlana Savranskaya (editor "The Soviet Cuban Missile Crisis"), Harvey Simon ("The Madman Theory"), and David Stokes ("Camelot's Cousin").
To Register: http://www.planetreg.com/E831629318444

Saturday, 3 November 2012, noon - Indian Harbour Beach, FL - "Briefing Candidates and Presidents-Elect" the topic at the AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter meeting

Dennis Bowden, former CIA analyst and Managing Editor of the President’s Daily Brief will discuss "Mutual Introductions: Briefing Candidates and Presidents-Elect."
Where: At the Eau Gallie Yacht Club. For those who may not be familiar with the PDB, it is frequently described as the world’s smallest newspaper, a CIA product that is put together each night from all-source intelligence so that a CIA analyst can brief the president the following morning. CIA briefings are also available to candidates and presidents-elect. There are many anecdotes about the way in which individual presidents have received their PDBs, some of them quite amusing and others less so, and we hope that our speaker will share some of the better of these with us.
To register or for more information contact Donna Czarnecki, donnacz12@aol.com.

Seattle, Washington Area Members and Guests - CIA & Naval Museum Event to put on your calendars

Saturday, 03 November 2012, 11 am - 12:30 pm - Keyport, WA - An Underwater Ice Station Zebra, featuring Historian, CIA Officer David Waltrop. This is a no-cost CIA Historic Document Release Event at the Naval Undersea Museum.

The Trieste II Deep Sea Vehicle I (DSV-1), the U.S. Navy's most advanced deep sea submersible, surfaced about 350 miles northeast of the Hawaiian Islands in the pre-dawn hours of 26 April 1972 after having salvaged a mysterious item from 16,400 feet below the Pacific Ocean. Publically known as a nondescript "data package," the full story of this little known Cold War operation has remained hidden behind secrecy, rumor, and speculation. With access to sources from three agencies, An Underwater Ice Station Zebra reveals how the CIA and U.S. Navy undertook a dangerous mission, never before attempted, in the deepest undersea expedition of its time – twenty-eight months before CIA's better known salvage involving the Hughes Glomar Explorer. Presentation by David W. Waltrop, program manager in the CIA Historical Collections Division, who served previously as the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) deputy-chief historian, editor of NRO's quarterly publication, and curator of the Defense Intelligence Agency.
LOCATION: Naval Undersea Museum, 1 Garnett Way, Keyport, WA 98345 [for GPS or Google Maps use: Jenson Road, Poulsbo, WA 98345], Phone: (360) 396-4148. The Museum is located 28 miles from downtown Seattle.
REGISTRATION NOT REQUIRED. Just show up and enjoy this important presentation. For more information visit the Museum website at http://www.navalunderseamuseum.org/. There is no fee to attend.

Wednesday, 7 November 2012, 8-9 am - Tysons Corner, VA - SPYPEDIA's Global Terrorism Espionage and Cybersecurity is hosting FREE Monthly Briefings
(G-TEC Briefing)
Location: Microsoft Store, Tysons Corner Center Mall, Level 2, Parking Area: P5, Tysons Corner, Virginia.
To Register: 703 642-7450 or email contact@cicentre.com
Seating is limited; Reservations required.

Friday, 9 November 2012, 9:30 am - 5:30 pm (reception to follow) - Washington, DC - FAS hosts 2012 Symposium on Preventing Catastrophic Threats and Awards Ceremony

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) hosts this important 2012 Symposium at the National Press Club Ballroom, 429 14th Street, NW, Washington, DC 20045
The next President of the United States and his national security team will need to make urgent decisions about protecting the nation from catastrophic attacks. To advise the next administration, just three days after the election, FAS will host a symposium featuring distinguished experts on policy and technological aspects of conventional, nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, bio-technology, nuclear safety, electricity generation, distribution, and storage, and cyber security. At the symposium, these experts will present their recommendations for preventing and reducing risks from catastrophic threats.
The event will also feature an awards ceremony luncheon to honor outstanding people who have made a distinctive contribution to national security. Dr. John Ahearne will be honored with the 2012 Richard L. Garwin Award, Dr. Sidney Drell will be honored with the 2012 Public Service Award and Dr. Stanford Ovshinsky will be honored with the 2012 Hans Bethe Award. Dr. Drell will share the honor of the Public Service Award with Dr. Henry Kissinger, Senator Sam Nunn, Dr. William J. Perry, and Mr. George P. Shultz.
Sponsorship Opportunities: Please contact Katie Colten at kcolten@fas.org or 202-454-4694 for more information, or visit www.fas.org

Saturday 10 November 2012, 10 am-4 pm - Washington, DC - The Sixth Annual Parade of Trabants at the International Spy Museum

The ONLY Trabant Rally in the United States!
Where were you when the Wall fell? The Berlin Wall is long gone, but one Cold War icon is still chugging away—the Trabant. Despite their questionable performance and smoky two-stroke engines, these little cars are now affectionately regarded as a symbol of East Germany and the fall of Communism. Trabants are a rarity here, but on November 10 some of the finest examples in the US will chug their way to the International Spy Museum to celebrate our Sixth Annual Parade of Trabants. Drop in to view the vintage cars, which will be parked in front of the Museum on F Street, NW, and enter a raffle to win a ride in a Trabant. While the cars are on display, experts will be on hand to answer questions about Trabants, the Cold War, and Communism, while the Blaskapelle Alte Kameraden German Band provides festive music. Stasi training films will reveal the East German Secret Police's techniques, and you can check out our own Checkpoint Charlie.
International Spy Museum, 800 F Street, NW Washington, DC Gallery Place/Chinatown Metrorail Station
TICKETS: Free No registration required! For further information or directions visit www.spymuseum.org

Tuesday, 27 November 2012, noon – Washington, DC - Author presentation: "The Zimmermann Telegram: Intelligence, Diplomacy, and America's Entry into World War I" at the International Spy Museum

In January 1917, British naval intelligence intercepted what became the most important telegram in all of American history. It was a daring proposition from Germany's foreign secretary, Arthur Zimmermann, offering German support to Mexico for regaining Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona in exchange for a Mexican attack on America. Five weeks later, America entered World War I. Former SPY historian Thomas Boghardt returns to talk about his remarkable new account of the Zimmerman Telegram. He has tapped fresh sources to provide the definitive account of the origins and impact of this German scheme. Boghardt also corrects longstanding misunderstandings about how the telegram was sent and enciphered and provides a new account of how British intelligence was able to decipher it.
Join the author for an informal chat and book signing. Free!  No registration required. TICKETS: Free No registration required! For further information or directions visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 28 November 2012, 6:30 pm - Washington, DC – "Bond Villains: The Reality Behind The Evil" at the International Spy Museum

"Goodbye, Mr. Bond!" – Auric Goldfinger, Goldfinger (1964)

What makes James Bond, codename 007, the greatest secret agent ever?  Is it because he can fly airplanes, even space shuttles, drive fast cars, and defuse missiles with seconds to spare all while seducing ladies and maintaining his cool?  Or is it because he has matched his skills against, and defeated, some of the most despicable and extraordinary villains ever imagined?  For over fifty years, James Bond villains have fascinated us with their shocking schemes, lavish lairs, and horrid henchmen.  Yet, these evil geniuses have also evolved.  From the crazed scientist Dr. No in 1962, to the mysterious Raoul Silva in this year's Skyfall, Bond villains have reflected changing public fears and anxieties.  Join intelligence historians, Dr. Alexis Albion, Dr Christopher Moran, and Dr. Mark Stout, as they revisit the Cold War and its aftermath to explore the connections between Bond villains and the era in which they first wowed audiences.  Delving into espionage history, and illuminating the remarkable overlap between spy fact and spy fiction, the speakers will detail the real-life role models for these dastardly evil-doers.  Moreover, they will consider to what extent Bond's adventures have mirrored, or responded to, developments in the real world of intelligence.

Tickets:  $9. TICKETS and for further information or directions visit www.spymuseum.org

Thursday, 29 November 2012, 6:30 pm - Washington, DC – "Secrecy and the State: US, UK, and You" at the International Spy Museum

"Secrecy and deception will always create problems in a free society."  Roger Hilsman, Former State Department intelligence chief, 1967.

What level of government secrecy is warranted?  What level is overkill?  Are decisions hard and fast or arbitrary?  With the deluge of information revealed by Wikileaks, the parameters of state secrecy have been brought into clearer focus.  This panel of experts will explore secrecy on both sides of the Atlantic detailing the tensions between secret keepers, whistleblowers, and ordinary citizens.  Join Dr. Christopher Moran, Warwick University, author of Classified:  Secrecy and State in Modern Britain, a fascinating account of the British state's long obsession with secrecy and the ways it sought to prevent information about its cover activities from entering the public domain; John Heley, former CIA officer and editor of the President's Daily Brief, who has been directly involved in providing current intelligence for eight presidents; and Steven Aftergood, director of the American Federation of Scientists and a prominent critic of U.S. government secrecy policy.

Tickets:  $9. TICKETS and for further information or directions visit www.spymuseum.org 

29-30 November 2012 - Bloomington, IN - CHANGING NATIONAL SECURITY PRIORITIES: 2013-2020, theme of 2-day conference

Indiana University is hosting a two-day conference on Changing National Security Priorities: 2013-2020, which will include a number of current and former USG officials and the Honorable Mary Beth Long, former Assistant Secretary of Defense for Internaional Affairs, as the keynote speaker.
Other Speakers of note:
Tyler Drumheller, former CIA Chief of European Operations
Robert Jones, SAC, FBI Indianapolis
Fulton Armstrong, former National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
Jeff Tunis, retired career foreign service officer
For details: Questions to conference organizer, Gene Coyle.

Monday, 3 December 2012, 5:30 pm - 8 pm - New York, NY - AFIO New York Chapter Meeting Features ESPIONAGE IN GOTHAM

Speaker: Bob Wallace - CIA 32 years, retired. Author Topic: "Two Centuries of Espionage in Gotham" (based on new book: Spy Sites in New York City). Book reveals NYC as a city of mystery, adventure and intrigue - a hub of espionage - nearly 200 sites where spies lived, plotted and operated. Location: "Society of Illustrators" 128 East 63rd Street (between Park & Lexington).
5:30 PM Registration 6:00 PM Meeting Start. Cost: $45/person. Cash or check at the door only. Buffet dinner and cash bar. Reservations: Strongly suggested, not required. 646-717-3776 or email: afiometro@gmail.com

Friday, 7 December 2012, 09:30 am - 2 pm - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO WINTER Luncheon - Film Screening on DCI William Colby; Presentation on The Internal IC Hunt and Unmasking of CIA Traitor Aldrich Ames

Place on your calendar. A very special day. In the a.m. we will have an introduction and screening of Carl Colby's [Jedburgh Films] acclaimed - controversial to some - documentary: THE MAN NOBODY KNEW: In Search of My Father, CIA Spymaster William Colby. Please note: Event is starting one hour earlier than usual. Film and Q&A starts at 10 am, concludes at noon. 3 course luncheon. 1 p.m. speaker will be Sandy Grimes and Jeanne Vertefeuille, two former CIA officials [26 yrs and 38 yrs, respectively] - the principals behind the dogged search and unmasking of the spy in their midst, described in their just released book: Circle of Treason: A CIA Account of Traitor Aldrich Ames and the Men He Betrayed. Registration will open October 1. Link will be provided here.

Wednesday, 12 December 2012, 8:30 am - 4 pm - Washington, DC - Jamestown Foundation 6th Annual Terrorism Conference

The conference theme of the Jamestown Foundation's 6th Annual Terrorism Conference is "The Periphery and the Core: the Evolution of AQ and Its Affiliates."
Location: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, The Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave NW, Washington, DC
The conference will feature the following speakers: Bruce Riedel, Bruce Hoffman, David Kilcullen, and Former CIA Director Michael Hayden.
**More details and registration information to follow** Website: www.jamestown.org
Phone: 202-483-8888. Jamestown Foundation, 1111 16th St NW Suite 320, Washington, DC 20036.


For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events


Disclaimers and Removal Instructions

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced for non-profit educational uses by members and WIN subscribers. 

REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs: 

a)  IF YOU ARE A MEMBER -- click here: UNSUBSCRIBE and supply your full name and email address where you receive the WINs. Click SEND, you will be removed from list.  If this link doesn't open a blank email, create one on your own and send to afio@afio.com with the words:  REMOVE FROM WINs as the subject, and provide your full name and email address where you are currently receiving them.

 b) IF YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER, and you received this message, someone forwarded this newsletter to you [contrary to AFIO policies]. Forward to afio@afio.com the entire WIN or message you received and we will remove the sender from our membership and distribution lists. The problem will be solved for both of us.

CONTENTS of this WIN [HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents. This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition or for some AOL recipients]. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. The HTML feature also does not work for those who access their e-mail using web mail...however NON-HTML recipients may view the latest edition each week in HTML at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm


WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor(s) or author(s) listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at www.afio.com for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications and much more!

(c) 2000, 2012, AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave Suite 200, McLean, VA 22101. Voice: (703) 790-0320; Fax: (703) 991-1278; Email: afio@afio.com

Click here to return to top.