AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #03-13 dated 22 January 2013

[Editors' Note: The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.]
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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Research Requests, Books, Obituaries and Coming Events

Research

Books

Obituaries

Coming Educational Events

Current Calendar New and/or Next Two Months ONLY

 

REGISTER FOR AFIO's WINTER LUNCHEON

FRIDAY, 15 February 2013

Badge Pick-up at 10:30 a.m.

Sulick Book

11 a.m. speaker

Michael Sulick

Former Director, National Clandestine Service, CIA

Discussing and Presenting his historical review....

SPYING IN AMERICA:
Espionage from the Revolutionary War to the
Dawn of the Cold War


CIA Seal

3-course Lunch at Noon

Helgerson Book

1 p.m. speaker


John L. Helgerson

Former Inspector General, CIA

Discussing ....

Intelligence Briefings of Presidential Candidates

Helgerson Portrait

Badge pickup at 10:30 a.m.
Mike Sulick presentation at 11 a.m.
Lunch at noon
John Helgerson presentation at 1 pm
Programs are On The Record

All attendees will receive a digital copy
of the entire unclassified edition
of John Helgerson's recently updated report on
"Getting to Know The President."

The latest intelligence books, and many others, for sale throughout event
compliments of the International Spy Museum Bookshop .

Event closes at 2 p.m.

Register HERE

EVENT LOCATION: The Crowne Plaza
1960 Chain Bridge Road • McLean, Virginia 22102
Driving directions here or use this link: http://tinyurl.com/boey9vf
 

CIA Invites AFIO Members to special event in Yorba Linda, California

Register NOW to attend this CIA-Nixon Library Conference

"President Nixon and the Role of Intelligence in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War"

A CIA Historical Documents 'Release Event' Conference co-hosted with The Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum.

AFIO members, their guests, and others in public are invited to attend this CIA-Nixon Library Conference examining the Intelligence Community's handling of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. It underscores the difficulty for the IC - in the past and today - to reliably predict the unexpected, especially in the Middle East.

Event features former policymakers and analysts, as well as historians and Middle East experts discussing how intelligence played into the decision-making process before, during, and after the conflict. Invited speakers include Brent Scowcroft (National Security Advisor under Presidents Ford and Bush), Charles E. Allen, (former Under Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis, Department of Homeland Security), William Quandt (Middle East expert at the National Security Council), Andy Liepman (former Deputy Director, National Counterterrorism Center), Dick Kovar (former chief of CIA's Middle East Task Force), James Gelvin (Historian, UCLA), Emile A. Nakhleh, PhD (former CIA Middle East expert), and the new Director of the Nixon Library (announcement expected soon). There is no fee to attend.
REGISTER now at nixonrsvp@nara.gov
or call Michael Koncewicz at 714-983-9295 to confirm your registration.

In the email to nixonrsvp@nara.gov, provide your name, email address, and how many guests you might be bringing with you to the January 30th CIA-NIXON Library Conference being held in Yorba Linda, CA [right outside Los Angeles]. There is no charge to attend.


FOR YOUR MARCH 2013 CALENDAR

Wednesday, 27 March 2013

"Typists to Trailblazers"
The History of Women's Advancement and Achievements at CIA

A CIA Conference at Smith College

Northampton, Massachusetts

This CIA Historical Documents 'Release Event' Conference co-hosted with Smith College and features CIA’s women’s history month celebration. Speakers will discuss women's advancement, including Petticoat Panel Report, and other achievements that brought women into higher positions beyond the typing pool.
Additional program details to follow. Registration will be available here in coming weeks.
All AFIO members are invited.
REGISTER your interest in attending event by clicking email below to obtain additional details: events@afio.com


 

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Six Bombers Attack Afghan Spy Agency, Kill Two. Six suicide bombers launched a coordinated attack on Afghanistan's spy agency in Kabul on Wednesday, killing two people and wounding 30, Afghan officials said.

The attack started at around noon (0730 GMT) when a suicide attacker detonated a large car bomb near a gate of one of the National Directorate of Security's (NDS) buildings, the Kabul police chief's office said in a statement.

Soon after, five men wearing vests packed with explosives and carrying grenades and automatic rifles attempted to storm the compound, but they were shot dead by security forces.

"Six terrorists, armed with assault rifles, grenades, suicide vests planned a complex attack on one of NDS's units," said the security agency's spokesman, Safiqullah Tahiri.

The minivan the group of five men had arrived in was packed with a type of liquid explosive security forces had not encountered before, Tahiri said. [Read more: Harooni/Reuters/16January2013]

North Korean Defector Charged with Spying. South Korea's National Intelligence Service confirmed on Sunday that the 33-year-old official - himself a defector from the North - had been taken into custody, although it has declined to identify the man by name.

Security officials acted after concluding that the man had handed a complete list of defectors living in Seoul to the North Korean government, according tot he Dong-A Ilbo newspaper.

The information also included the defectors' new addresses in the South Korean capital, details of their work and other information.

The data could potentially threaten the safety of the defectors, South Korean officials said, and has raised questions about oversight of the government's handling of defectors.

According to South Korean intelligence officials, the man had been one of North Korea's social elite before he defected alone in 2004 by crossing the border into China and making his way to Seoul. [Read more: Ryall/TheTelegraph/21January2013]

Algeria Hostage Crisis: Malaysia Working With CIA, MI-6, Egyptian Intelligence. Malaysia is forging cooperation with American, British and Egyptian intelligence to find out about the fate of two more Malaysians, whose identities are known, in the hostage incident in eastern Algeria, North Africa, last Wednesday.

Home Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Hussein said the cooperation involved the United States' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Britain's MI-6 and the Egyptian intelligence.

He said the latest information was still unclear, forcing the government to obtain information from various sources including intelligence agencies to know about the situation of the Malaysians who were taken hostage in Algeria.

"I am monitoring the matter closely, and we have a network of intelligence agencies that we can rely on and not necessarily in Algeria but nearer to that country.

"I also receive reports from our anti-terrorism unit, but I admit that we have been receiving some conflicting reports. [Read more: MalaysianDigest/20January2013]

Ex-Army Officer Accuses CIA of Obstructing Pre-9/11 Intelligence-Gathering. A decorated ex-clandestine operative for the Pentagon offers new revelations about the role the US Central Intelligence Agency [CIA] played in the shut-down of the military's notorious Able Danger program, alleged to have identified five of the 9/11 hijackers inside America more than a year before the attacks.

Lt. Col. Anthony Shaffer joins a growing list of government officials accusing former CIA director George Tenet of misleading federal bodies and sharing some degree of blame for the attacks. Shaffer also adds to a picture emerging of the CIA's Bin Laden unit as having actively prevented other areas of intelligence, law enforcement and defense from properly carrying out their counterterrorism functions in the run-up to September 2001.

Shaffer spoke to documentary filmmakers John Duffy and Ray Nowosielski in late 2011, on the day Judicial Watch successfully forced the Department of Defense [DOD] to declassify many Able Danger documents through their Freedom of Information Act [FOIA] lawsuit. The materials newly in the public domain allowed Shaffer to speak more candidly than ever before. While he maintains the DOD bureaucracy was always the main obstacle for Able Danger, he offers fresh disclosures on the role played by the CIA in the shut-down of its military offensive. [Read more: Truthout/20January2013]

Mexico to Create New 'CIA' Type Intelligence Center. Interior Minister Miguel Ángel Osorio Chong recently announced to the press plans to form a new agency analogous to the United States' Central Intelligence Agency. The principle mission of the new National Intelligence Center [Centro Nacional de Inteligencia, CNI] will be to fight organized crime.

To optimize efficiency, the agency will act as a central collection point for information generated by all other intelligence and justice entities in the country, including the police, military, Attorney General's Office [Procuraduría General de la República, PGR], and other federal and state agencies. As Osorio Chong explained, it will "work towards the necessary bringing together of all information."

Mexican intelligence experts have already been consulting for some months now with their Colombian, French, Spanish, U.K., and U.S. counterparts on issues related to the formation of this new agency. The CNI will be structured within the Interior Ministry [Secretaría de Gobernación, Segob], and will report to the existing Mexican Center for Investigation and National Security [Centro de Investigación y Seguridad Nacional, CISEN].

According to Justice Mexico, the agency's creation follows President Peña Nieto's campaign promises to demilitarize government strategies in fighting organized crime. [Read more: JusticeMexico/18January2013]

Turkey Court to Hear Appeal on Spy Agency Law. Turkey's Constitutional Court is expected on Wednesday to hear an appeal for the annulment of an amendment that seeks Turkish premier's permission to press criminal charges against personnel of the country's top intelligence agency.

Turkey's main opposition party, citing violation of rule law and principle of equality, raised the annulment plea in February 2012 for the cancellation of the amendment which stipulates Turkish premier's clearance to prosecute officers from the National Intelligence Organization, or MIT, for crimes they might have committed due to the nature of their jobs.

The amendment was introduced in February 2012 by the Justice and Development [AK] Party government and the Turkish president swiftly ratified it after a Turkish prosecutor ordered Hakan Fidan, the spy boss, to testify in a probe into "the Kurdistan Communities' Union/Turkey Council, or KCK, an alleged urban wing of the militant PKK organization.

Fidan, along with a former MIT chief and a deputy, were called on to summon for questioning over a series of secretive talks held with the PKK in 2009 or 2010 in Oslo, the Norwegian capital, in a bid to convince PKK to disarm. [Read more: WorldBulletin/16January2013]

Fort Huachuca's Boss Taking Intelligence Post in Afghanistan. Army Maj. Gen. Gregg Potter will relinquish his command of Fort Huachuca and its military intelligence school next week.

The ceremony will be at 10:30 a.m. Jan. 24 on Brown Parade Field. It is open to the public.

It was announced in October that Potter would be leaving Fort Huachuca for a new assignment in Afghanistan.

Potter, who assumed command in 2010, will serve as deputy chief of staff of intelligence with the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan, said Tanja M. Linton, a fort spokeswoman.

Before serving at Fort Huachuca, Potter served as vice director of intelligence at the Defense Intelligence Agency at the Pentagon.

Before that, he spent a year with U.S. European Command in Germany, and two years as intelligence director for U.S. Joint Special Operations Command at Fort Bragg, N.C.

Fort Huachuca's leadership typically changes about every two years. [Read more: Duarte/ArizonaDailyStar/17January2013]

UK Recalling Former Agents to Spy On Syrian Communications. The British Daily Mirror newspaper is reporting that UK intelligence officials are recruiting former agents to train armed opposition groups in Syria and to spy on the communications systems of this country.

The newspaper specified that dozens of retired technicians and experts at analyzing frequencies and encrypted codes have been contacted with the objective of returning them to their former line of work.

London is planning to send the former spies to a base in Turkey, with the purpose of training Syrian insurgents in intercepting communication systems of the government and the Syrian armed forces, the newspaper reported.

The paper quoted a source from British intelligence, who asserted that the United Kingdom has a long history in supporting irregular groups in Syria, but helping them overhear the plans of the Syrian Arab Army would be a huge boost.

Media reports explained recently that British and U.S. satellites take pictures of the Syrian troops' movements and pass on this data to the armed groups, through the British foreign security service and the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency.

That information would serve to carry out attacks against military bases or top Syrian government officials, they said. [Read more: PrensaLatina/17January2013]

NGA receives Joint Meritorious Unit Award. Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter presented the Joint Meritorious Unit Award to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency during a ceremony at the organization's headquarters here Friday.

NGA Director Letitia A. Long accepted the award from Carter on behalf of her workforce before a standing-room only audience.

According to the award citation, NGA's dedicated and professional intelligence support to the nation helped to achieve national objectives by skillfully shaping how geospatial intelligence was applied to a broad spectrum of challenges.

"Between 2008-2010," Carter said, "NGA was a constant source of innovation, aiding our efforts in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations using new intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance sensors and technologies, and analytic methods including full-motion video, hyperspectral imagery, overhead persistent infrared, and light detection and ranging."

During the surge and the drawdown in Iraq, NGA deployed more than 2,200 personnel, providing direct support at more than 200 locations in 17 countries, Carter said.

"These were all personnel who volunteered to serve overseas, facing the realities of combat up close," he said. "I especially want to thank them." [Read more: Ghannam/NGA/17January2013]

Putin Orders Russian Computers Protected After Spy Attacks. President Vladimir Putin has ordered Russian authorities to protect state computers from hacking attacks, the Kremlin said on Monday, after an Internet security firm said a spy network had infiltrated government and embassy computers across the former Soviet bloc.

Dubbed Red October, the network used phishing attacks - or unsolicited emails to intended targets - to infect the computers of embassies and other state institutions with a program designed to harvest intelligence and send it back to a server.

Mr. Putin signed a decree on Jan. 15 empowering the Federal Security Service [FSB] to "create a state system for the detection, prevention and liquidation of the effects of computer attacks on the information resources of the Russian Federation."

State computer and telecommunications networks protected by the cyber security system should include those inside Russia and at its embassies and consulates abroad, according to the decree, which was published on a Kremlin website Monday.

Russian Internet security firm Kaspersky Labs said last week that the computer espionage network, discovered last October, had been seeking intelligence from Eastern European and ex-Soviet states including Russia since 2007. [Read more: Reuters/21January2013]

Lebanon Nabs 'High-Paid Spy for Israel'. The Lebanese army has arrested a citizen suspected of collaborating with Israel, the Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Manar TV reported on Monday.

Ali Taufiq Yari, a former member of the Baalbek City Council, was branded as the highest paid spy to date, as he was said to have received $600,000 for his service to the Jewish state.

According to the report, Yari began working with Israel's Mossad in 1990, and had undergone intelligence training that taught him to use invisible ink, concealed radio devices and other means of communication.

According to Monday's report, Yari had visited Israel more than once using a fake Palestinian passport. The alleged spy was also said to have travelled to Europe and Asia to meet with his Israeli handlers.

He purportedly provided Israel with intelligence on Hezbollah hubs and its communication network. He further reported on the Lebanese army and top members in the Shiite Amal movement. [Read more: Kais/YnetNews/21January2013]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Spy Bases: 9 Secretive HQs of the World's Intelligence Agencies. Architecture is a language, one used by institutions to say something about themselves.

The same basic principle is true for the world's spy agencies. All show their secrecy in their buildings, while some may appear starkly utilitarian, and some may even be frightening and alienating. But they also have their quirks and differences, whether it be an isolated complex hidden by trees, in a location that's never been officially disclosed, or a prominent complex built by superstar architects and put on prominent display in the middle of a capital city.

From Virginia to Berlin to Moscow, here are nine of them. [Read more: Beckhusen/Wired/22January2013]

Buying 'Political Intelligence' Can Pay Off Big for Wall Street. When Edward Kennedy Jr. launched Marwood Group more than a decade ago, he named it after the Maryland estate his grandfather, Joseph Kennedy, lived in when he was the first chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission in the 1930s.

Now, the SEC has issued subpoenas to Marwood, asking for emails and other documents that show how the political research firm was able to warn its Wall Street clients that regulators might delay approving a promising drug in the fall of 2010.

The scrutiny doesn't mean any accusations of impropriety will follow, against Marwood or anyone else. But emails subpoenaed in the inquiry, some of them reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, open a rare window into a burgeoning business known as political intelligence, in which firms gather information and analysis about activities in Congress, the White House and federal agencies and sell these insights to investors looking for an edge.

A look at Marwood shows how one leading player in this field -- an industry that operates with little regulatory oversight -- managed to distribute prescient information about a future government decision that ended up sharply moving a stock.

Food and Drug Administration approval of the drug at issue, one for diabetes, was widely expected in 2010. But Marwood, after weighing the political environment, studying other FDA decisions and seeking intelligence about the thinking inside the agency, warned its investor clients the drug might run into trouble. A few weeks later, it did, and the stock of the drug's maker plunged 46% in a day.

One of Marwood's hedge-fund clients, after receiving its warning, placed a financial bet that the company's stock would fall. Another client didn't believe Marwood and lost money.

Michael McKeon, a spokesman for Marwood, declined to discuss the investigation but said in a statement that Marwood "is a best in class research firm that monitors a broad range of health-care issues including decisions by the FDA for more than 100 clients in the health-care space, basing all of our analysis on public records, public meetings and our team's deep experience and understanding of how the FDA works." The SEC declined to comment.

The political-intelligence business has expanded rapidly over a decade as government decisions have come to play a growing role for some on Wall Street. Investors spend more than $400 million a year for such intelligence, according to Integrity Research Associates, which follows the research industry. Its founder, Michael Mayhew, said hedge funds tell him the "single largest source of gains for them has been what's going on in Washington."

Political-intelligence specialists, unlike lobbyists, don't have to disclose anything about their clients, activities or fees. Sen. Charles Grassley (R., Iowa) is pushing to change that. "We ought to know who these people are that seek political and economic espionage," Mr. Grassley said on the Senate floor last year. [Read more: WallStreetJournal/18January2013]

1963: The Year that Scandals Rocked the Nation. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the Profumo scandal; yet that famous photograph, of Christine Keeler naked astride a concealing chair, is still lodged in our memories. The anniversary of an affair that proved a turning point for British society was always going to mean a rehashing of the case.

But the early months of 1963 saw the breaking of not one but three extraordinary scandals. Two were political and one personal - an aristocratic divorce with details that read like something from Fifty Shades of Grey - but all three were linked in the minds of press and public. All three combined to make that watershed moment - a whole season of scandals, when the first spring of a permissive society was just on the way.

It had been summer 1961 when John Profumo, an Old Harrovian government minister, met good-time girl Keeler with her mentor - society osteopath Stephen Ward - in the swimming pool at Cliveden. There too was Eugene Ivanov, another of Keeler's lovers, the Russian naval attaché and spy. That summer and maybe autumn, the affair between Profumo and Keeler flourished amid farcical scenarios of the British minister coming to visit her by the front door as the Russian agent was leaving by the back.

It all went quiet until, in autumn 1962, against a background of the Cuban Missile Crisis, a knife fight between two of Keeler's other lovers - "Lucky" Gordon, and a dope dealer called Johnny Edgecombe - brought her to the attention of the police, and the press. [Read more: Gristwood/TheTelegraph/22January2013]


Section III - COMMENTARY

New Approach to Terrorism Necessary. Spectacular terrorist attacks; talk of a "war on terror"; pre-emptive military action in faraway, politically unstable places. As the world watches the resurgence of jihadist activity, and in particular the unfolding of the hostage crisis at a remote gas complex in the Algerian desert, one can be forgiven for asking whether we ever truly made it out of the last decade.

It is not just the dramatic events of the past few days. Before Algeria and before Mali - where French fighter jets have been deployed against jihadists, who last week were advancing on the capital - there was Benghazi and the attack on the US Consulate. Then there is Syria, where a jihadist group has established itself as the strongest element in a loose rebel force fighting to topple the Bashar Al Assad regime. This all runs counter to received wisdom. How many times have we been told that Al Qaida has been defeated, that the US drones war was keeping any remnants in check? And has not the very ideology of a global jihad been blown apart by the powerful expression of peaceful resistance to dictatorships in the Arab world?

In many ways the answer is yes - and yet it tells only part of the story. Much as we might like easy explanations of how good can defeat evil and how a peaceful Islam can conquer the perverse interpretations of the jihadists, the apparent resurgence we are witnessing is different from the challenges of the past decade and the result of a set of complex factors. Indeed, it will require different responses to those deployed over the past decade. In the years following the September 11, 2001, attacks in New York and Washington, the US-led anti-terrorism campaign focused on dismantling the Al Qaida network's central command in Afghanistan and Pakistan. No one can deny the gains achieved, which culminated in the 2011 killing of Osama Bin Laden. [Read more: Khalaf/GulfNews/23January2013]


Section IV - Research Requests, Books, Obituaries and Coming Events


Research
 [IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse these research inquiries or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information.]

IARPA released 4 new forecasting problems today, three of which are of the conditional form “Will A happen IF/IF-NOT B happens?” (only “A” shown below). Please participate.

1190. Will Italian ten-year government bond yields be below 4% as of 31 March 2013?
1191. Will the official US Dollar to Venezuelan Bolivar exchange rate exceed 4.35 at any point before 1 April 2013?
1192. Will Uhuru Kenyatta be found guilty of any charges by the International Criminal Court before 1 September 2013?
1193. What will the number of registered Malian conflict refugees reported by the UNHCR be as of 1 March 2013?

As always, when you visit our site to make forecasts to these new questions, please also take a moment to review and update your prior forecasts. You may want to use the “Quick Surveys” page to get a convenient overview of your existing forecasts.

To help you with your forecasting, our subject matter expert has reviewed our open questions and provided recent news at a single view. Please visit this analysis in our shared subject workspace in the “Occasional Analyses” section.

If you have any problems accessing our sites, please send an email to ace.support@jacobs.com for support or use the “Help” section.

We thank you all for your support! Best regards, Sven Brueckner (INFORMED Project Manager) The INFORMED prototype is hosted at https://www.ace-informed.net. At https://activewiki.net/display/IarpaAceInformedPublic/Home you find background information on our study.

Books

"National Insecurity": Ex-CIA Analyst Melvin Goodman Measures Cost of Militarization. When our children are most likely to die by automobile, substance abuse or gunfire; when our water, air and food are sickening us; and when natural disasters threaten to make more of us climate refugees, how did it come to be that our government is most consumed with those threats they imagine far over the horizon rather than those realities we live with cheek by jowl?

In "National Insecurity," former CIA analyst Melvin Goodman, who worked under every administration from Johnson to Bush Sr., takes a dogged look through our history since World War II for the answer. He finds it in militarization, his shorthand for our growing investment in the belief that military force is the best tool for providing national security and that foreign policy is best pursued by the Pentagon.

The value of this concept for understanding contemporary America is revealed in the current federal budget discussions. These discussions have been inexorably led - by the president, Congress and packs of lobbyists - toward the question of whether senior citizens really need all their Medicare benefits or impoverished families really need all their food stamps. Missing from the debate is the question of whether just one military contractor, Lockheed Martin, needs to take home more federal dollars in one year than the budgets of the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Transportation combined.

Although this basic story has been told before, and well, by analysts including Andrew Bacevich, Cynthia Enloe and Rachel Maddow, Goodman's value added is his focus on the role of the militarization of intelligence. Militarized intelligence has been crucial to establishing that mortal threats to America perennially loom - out there - demanding bloated military budgets and frequent wars.

He tells the stories of constructed phantoms such as yellow cake uranium in Saddam Hussein's hands, an ever-growing Soviet juggernaut in the 1980s and the sinking of a U.S. naval vessel by Hanoi. These intelligence figments, we know, were key to the campaigns waged by Presidents George W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Lyndon Johnson, respectively, to invade Iraq, to overspend wildly on military hardware and to wage war against Vietnam.

The lives laid waste in the decades that followed those misuses of the U.S. intelligence apparatus are counted in the tens of thousands in the United States and in the millions in Vietnam and Iraq. Goodman might have given the reader some greater reminders of this horrible red harvest. He focuses, instead, as a professional in the spy business might be expected to, on the effect on his field. [Read more: Lutz/SanFranciscoChronicle/21January2013]

Introduction to Intelligence Studies. Since the attacks of 9/11, the United States Intelligence Community (IC) has undergone an extensive overhaul. Perhaps the greatest of these changes has been the formation of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. As a cabinet-level official, the Director oversees the various agencies of the IC and reports directly to the President. The IC today faces challenges as it never has before; everything from terrorism to pandemics to economic stability has now become an intelligence issue. As a result, the IC is shifting its focus to a world in which tech-savvy domestic and international terrorists, transnational criminal organizations, failing states, and economic instability are now a way of life.

Introduction to Intelligence Studies provides a comprehensive overview of intelligence and security issues, defining critical terms, and reviewing the history of intelligence as practiced in the United States. Designed in a practical sequence, the book begins with the basics of intelligence, progresses through its history, describes best practices, and explores the way the IC looks and operates today. Each chapter begins with objectives and key terms and closes with questions to test reader assimilation.

The authors examine the "pillars" of the American intelligence system - collection, analysis, counterintelligence, and covert operations - and demonstrate how these work together to provide "decision advantage." The book provides equal treatment to the functions of the intelligence world - balancing coverage on intelligence collection, counterintelligence, information management, critical thinking, and decision-making. It also covers such vital issues as laws and ethics, writing and briefing for the IC, and the emerging threats and challenges that intelligence professionals will face in the future. [CRCPress/November2012]

Intelligence in an Insecure World. Over a decade on from the terrorist attacks of 9/11, intelligence continues to be of central importance to the contemporary world. Today there is a growing awareness of the importance of intelligence, and an increasing investment in it, as individuals, groups, organizations and states all seek timely and actionable information in order to increase their sense of security.

But what exactly is intelligence? Who seeks to develop it and how? What happens to intelligence once it is produced, and what dilemmas does this generate? How can liberal democracies seek to mitigate problems of intelligence, and what do we mean by "intelligence failure?"' In a fully revised and expanded new edition of their classic guide to the field, Peter Gill and Mark Phythian explore these and other questions. Together they set out a comprehensive framework for the study of intelligence, discussing how 'intelligence' can best be understood, how it is collected, analysed, disseminated and acted upon, how it raises ethical problems, and how and why it fails. 

Drawing on a range of contemporary examples, Intelligence in an Insecure World is an authoritative and accessible guide to a rapidly expanding area of enquiry - one which everyone has an interest in understanding. [Polity/November2012]


Obituaries

Statement to Employees from Acting Director Michael Morell about the Passing of Lloyd Salvetti. I am saddened to report that Lloyd Salvetti, a 32-year veteran of our Agency who helped establish the CIA Memorial Foundation and served as its executive director, passed away unexpectedly on Saturday.

In December 2001, Lloyd and a group of former CIA leaders set up the foundation to provide college scholarships for the children of fallen Agency officers after the loss of Johnny Micheal Spann, the first Agency officer to die overseas in our nation's response to the 9/11 attacks. Lloyd then volunteered to serve as the foundation's executive director until a permanent position was established two years ago. He called his work for the foundation a "labor of love," and he seemed to feel the same way about everything he did for our Agency.

Lloyd served CIA with singular devotion from the moment he first walked through our doors. He described himself as a career operations officer, but Lloyd's contributions spanned the full spectrum of Agency activities, including collection, covert action, and analysis. He was also the Director of the Center for the Study of Intelligence, a consumer of intelligence at the National Security Council, and an educator who taught his craft at the National War College and gave lectures at conferences and universities around the country. After his retirement in 2002, he served as a staff member on the 9/11 Commission.

Lloyd was a talented operations officer, an inspiring leader, and an exceptional colleague whose grace and goodwill touched all who worked with him. Few officers have cared so deeply about our Agency and its people. On behalf of the men and women of CIA, I offer our sincere gratitude and our heartfelt condolences to Lloyd's beloved wife, Gail, and to the entire Salvetti family.

Michael Morell  [CIA/16January2013]


Coming Educational Events

EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

MANY Spy Museum Events in 2013 with full details are listed on the AFIO Website at www.afio.com. The titles for some of these are in detail below and online.

Wednesday, 23 January 2013, 6:30 pm - Washington, DC - "Inside Stories - Spy Hunters: The Women Who Caught Aldrich Ames" at the International Spy Museum

WHAT: "… he seriously considered us dumb broads." – Sandy Grimes

Meet Sandy Grimes, a former CIA Operative in the Agency's Clandestine Service, and hear how she and her fellow operative Jeanne Vertefeuille used their determination, hard work, and cunning to enable the capture and conviction of their former colleague and infamous CIA officer-turned traitor:  Aldrich Ames.  His acts of betrayal were finally halted thanks in large part to the dogged perseverance and penetrating analysis of this remarkable pair.  International Spy Museum Executive Director, Peter Earnest, who was once Ames' immediate supervisor, will also offer comments on the case. The women were finally able to tell the inside story of the unmasking of the CIA's most notorious traitor in their remarkable book Circle of Treason: A CIA Account of Traitor Aldrich Ames and the Men He Betrayed which will be available for sale and signing.
International Spy Museum: 800 F Street, NW Washington, DC Gallery Place/Chinatown Metrorail Station. Tickets: $9. Register at www.spymuseum.org

Friday, 25 January 2013, 1:00 pm - Washington, DC - Thomas Caplan, The Spy Who Jumped Off the Screen at the International Spy Museum Store

An in-store book signing of The Spy Who Jumped Off the Screen by Thomas Caplan, with an introduction by President Bill Clinton. The Spy Museum calls this "A classic international spy novel with a fresh, contemporary twist full of daring adventure that makes for edge-of-your-seat reading. Reminiscent of the novels featuring James Bond and Jason Bourne, The Spy Who Jumped Off the Screen addresses the very relevant and current threat of nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands."
No registration required. Visit http://www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 30 January 2013, 2PM - Washington, DC - The Smolensk Plane Crash: Recent Developments with Pawel Styrna at the Institute of World Politics

Pawel Styrna, Research Assistant, Kosciuszko Chair, Eurasia Analyst, Selous Foundation for Public Policy Research, at the Institute of World Politics, discusses the recent developments in the Smolensk Plane Crash.
Event location: The Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th St NW, Washington, DC 20036.
Parking map is here.
RSVP and confirmation - required to attend. RSVP HERE
This lecture is part of a series on the Intermarium, organized by the Kosciuszko Chair of Polish Studies at IWP.

30 January 2013 - Yorba Linda, CA [Nixon Library] - "President Nixon and the Role of Intelligence in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War" - a CIA Historical Documents 'Release Event' Conference co-hosted with The Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum.

AFIO members and guests are invited to attend this CIA-Nixon Library Conference examining intelligence community's handling of the 1973 Arab-Israeli War. It underscores the difficulty for the IC - in the past and today - to reliably predict the unexpected, especially in the Middle East. Event features former policymakers and analysts, as well as historians and Middle East experts discussing how intelligence played into the decisionmaking process before, during, and after the conflict. Invited speakers include Brent Scowcroft (National Security Advisor under Presidents Ford and Bush), Charles E. Allen, (former Under Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis, Department of Homeland Security), William Quandt (Middle East expert at the National Security Council), Andy Liepman (former Deputy Director, National Counterterrorism Center), Dick Kovar (former chief of CIA's Middle East Task Force), James Gelvin (Historian, UCLA), Emile A. Nakhleh, PhD (former CIA Middle East expert), and the new Director of the Nixon Library (announcement expected soon). There is no cost to attend.
When: 30 January 2013 from 1 - 5:30 PM
Location: Richard Nixon Presidential Library, 18001 Yorba Linda Boulevard, Yorba Linda, CA 92886
REGISTER your interest in attending event by clicking email address at right to obtain additional details: events@afio.com
Provide your name, email address, and how many guests you might be bringing with you to the January 30th CIA-NIXON Library Conference being held in Yorba Linda, CA [right outside Los Angeles]. You will be sent further details as event approaches.

Saturday, 2 February 2013 - Melbourne, FL - AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter hosts AFIO National President Gene Poteat on "Secret History of History: Selected Key Events Through Eyes of CIA Officer."

Event location: Indian River Colony Club, At East Club, 1936 Freedom Dr, Melbourne, FL 32932. Details and reservations: Bobbie Keith at 321 777-5561 before Jan 29.

Monday, 4 February 2013, 11:30 am - MacDill AFB, FL - Meeting/Luncheon by Florida Suncoast Chapter featuring AFIO President Gene Poteat speaking on "The Secret History of American History: What history books fail to include."

AFIO President and retired CIA Senior Scientific Intelligence Officer Gene Poteat will speak on "The Secret History of American History; What our history books fail to include." He will explain in a presentation laced with humor that Intelligence is as old as mankind, yet may not be the second oldest profession as claimed. He gives a sweeping review of historically significant events, the outcome of which was influenced by intelligence rather than as reported.
Location: MacDill AFB Surf's Edge Club, 7315 Bayshore Blvd, MacDill AFB, FL 33621.
RSVP no later than Wednesday, January 30, for yourself and include the names of any guests.
Email or call the Chapter Secretary at (813) 832-1164 or at mfshapiro@att.net or visit www.suncoastafio.org
Cost: $20. You must present your $20 check payable to "Suncoast Chapter, AFIO" (or cash) at check-in to cover the luncheon. If you make a reservation, don't cancel and get a cancellation confirmation by the response deadline and then don't show up, you will be responsible for the cost of the luncheon.

Wednesday, 6 February 2013 - Washington, DC - Intrigue in Vienna: An Evening Inspired by The Third Man - sponsored by the International Spy Museum

The Vienna sewers, the Giant Ferris Wheel in the Prater, Orson Welles, and the haunting theme music of Anton Karas – In 1949, the iconic masterpiece The Third Man showed a mysterious and intriguing side of Vienna previously unseen on the big screen. Remembering this time of exciting adventures, elusive truths, and sheer elegance, the International Spy Museum together with the Embassy of Austria are hosting a Third Man themed event. For one evening, you will have the unique opportunity to immerse yourself in this thrilling world of secrets, spies, and mysteries while discovering the Vienna of the Cold War era. The event will feature original artifacts, multimedia presentations, as well as notable speakers. So join us for this night of great suspense and action but always remember: Trust No One.
WHERE: L2 Lounge, 3315 Cady's Alley NW, Washington, DC 20007
TICKETS: $25. To register or for more information visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesdays, 6 - 27 February 2013 10 am - Washington, DC - "Spy Seminar Series: Exfiltrations, Captures, or Kills: Famous High Stakes Intelligence Operations" at the International Spy Museum

Intelligence operations that hold human life in the balance are some of the most difficult missions any intelligence service will ever undertake. Exfiltrations are supremely delicate. This is the process of extracting a person or people from a targeted site with absolute urgency due to a sudden change which makes the site hostile. This could happen when a spy's cover is blown or a change in leadership puts people in danger. Captures are just that: snaring an enemy. And lastly kills. Wet jobs. Assassinations. When the enemy is bad enough that termination is the only answer. In this series, a distinguished group of experts and former intelligence personnel will introduce you to some of the greatest of these intense operations.

February 6 - The Operation that Killed Osama bin Laden
When Osama bin Laden declared war against the United States for the first time to a Western audience, Peter Bergen was there. He produced Osama bin Laden's first television interview and has written extensively on the terrorist and on Al Qaeda. His book, Manhunt: the Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden—from 9/11 to Abbottabad focuses on the difficulty of finding the world's most dangerous man—the missed opportunities, the lucky breaks, and dedication of the people who finally tracked him down. Bergen will share his professional connection to bin Laden, what it was like to actually "know" him, and his thoughts on the execution and results of Operation Neptune Spear.

February 13 - How the Mossad Captured Eichmann
For 15 years the hunt for Eichmann, architect of the mass murder of Europe's Jews, stretched from war-ravaged Europe to the shores of Argentina. In researching his book, Hunting Eichmann, best-selling author Neal Bascomb gathered groundbreaking new information and interviews, and newly declassified documents to fully tell the story of how the notorious Nazi was brought to justice. He will reveal how the young Israeli spy agency, the Mossad, organized this colossal operation—dispatching operatives like Isser Harel and Zvi Aharoni on their harrowing mission to Argentina to capture and deliver Eichmann.

February 20 - Saving Ryszard Kuklinski
In 1972, Polish Colonel Ryszard Kuklinski volunteered to spy for the United States. His self-appointed mission: to undermine his country's Soviet-dominated leadership to save Poland from nuclear destruction. Over the next nine years of high-risk, clandestine exchanges, he copied tens of thousands of secret documents and covertly passed them to the CIA—including plans to crush the Solidarity movement. Learn the inside story of this extraordinary case and of Kuklinski's last-minute, daring escape from International Spy Museum Executive Director, Peter Earnest, a former CIA officer who did unprecedented research into Agency records for Benjamin Wesier's A Secret Life: The Polish Officer, His Covert Mission, and the Price He Paid to Save His Country. Former CIA officer, Sue Burggraf, who worked with Kuklinski in Warsaw will also comment on the heroic Pole.

February 27 - Canadian Caper
International Spy Museum board member and former CIA chief of disguise Tony Mendez led the famous rescue of six Americans who were trapped in Iran after they had escaped from the US Embassy during the Iranian Hostage Crisis in 1979. Mendez came up with an ingenuous plan to get the Americans out by creating a fake movie called ARGO, setting up a cover film studio, and disguising them as a location scouting team from Canada. Mendez will take you behind the scenes of the operation, recently immortalized in the real film ARGO, from Canada's incredible support of the rescue to what kind of props he brought to make the Americans look more like film industry types.

WHERE: International Spy Museum: 800 F Street, NW Washington, DC Gallery Place/Chinatown Metrorail Station
TICKETS: Tickets: $120 (must be purchased through the Smithsonian)
To register: (via phone) 202.633.3030; (online) www.SmithsonianAssociates.org. Internet Quick Tix code for the program: 1M2-647. For more information visit www.spymuseum.org

Friday, 8 February 2013, 6 - 7:30 pm - Washington, DC - Africa and International Terrorism - by Kemal Okudo at the Institute of World Politics

You are cordially invited to a special lecture on the topic of Africa and International Terrorism with Kemal Okudo, National Security Consultant, IWP Class of 2009.
Kemal Okudo has over 23 years of cumulative and diversified executive and operational-level experience in banking, telecommunications, logistics, industrial security, and national security consulting. During his career, he has won awards as a banker; pioneered, designed and supervised the logistics and security functions at one of Nigeria's largest telephone companies (currently with over 30 million subscribers); and consulted for various national governments and global corporations in different areas of national security.
Where: The Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th St NW. Parking map is here.
RSVP and confirmation - required to attend. RSVP HERE

Wednesday, 13 February 2013, 11:30 am - 1:30 pm - Scottsdale, AZ - "Experience as an OSS Officer" featuring Robert Swift, at the AFIO Arizona Chapter

Guest Speaker will be Robert Swift, Ret. OSS Officer, on “Bob’s experience as an OSS Officer”
Bob was reading and transmitting code by age seven in the early 1930’s. His father and grandfather were both ham radio operators. He trained as a communicator with the OSS and was sent to Europe to support their operations against Germany. After the war Bob joined a new company in the communications business. He rose through the ranks to become an Executive Vice President in charge of International business and then chief of Staff to the Chairman of Motorola. Bob is now retired and lives in North Scottsdale with his wife Mary. Bob will share key aspects of the following: - OSS operations focused on Eastern Europe; - OSS support of 15th Air Force Bombing missions against German petroleum supplies and production, and; - Lessons learned from the Bari bombing disaster as well as lessons applicable to current intelligent operations.
Location: McCormick Ranch Golf Course, 7505 McCormick Parkway, Scottsdale AZ 85258 ~ Phone 480.948.0260.
RSVP simone@afioaz.org or simone@4smartphone.net. To call, please leave a message on 602.570.6016. Do so no later than 72 hours ahead of time. If you do not show up for the lunch meeting and failed to cancel 48 hours prior the chapter will be charged so, by necessity, you will be charged for the lunch.
Fee: $20 for Members; $22 Non-Members

Friday, 15 February 2013, 10:30am - 2pm - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National 2013 Luncheon features Spying in America by former D/NCS CIA Mike Sulick, and Intelligence Briefings of Presidential Candidates by former CIA Inspector General John L. Helgerson.

The former CIA Inspector General, John L. Helgerson, discusses "Intelligence Briefings of Presidential Candidates" and the former Director of the National Clandestine Service, Michael Sulick, presents - SPYING IN AMERICA: Espionage from the Revolutionary War to the Dawn of the Cold War - a history of more than thirty espionage cases inside the US.
Helgerson provides unique insights into the mechanics and content of these briefings of candidates, the interaction of the participants, and the briefings' effect on the relationships presidents have had with their intelligence services.
Sulick presents a number of espionage cases which include Americans who spied against their country, spies from both the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War, and foreign agents who ran operations on American soil. Some of the stories are familiar, such as those of Benedict Arnold and Julius Rosenberg, while others, though less well known, are equally fascinating. Mr. Sulick speaks at 11 a.m. Lunch at noon. Mr. Helgerson speaks at 1 pm. All attendees will receive a digital copy of the unclassified edition of John Helgerson's updated report on "Getting to Know The President."
REGISTER HERE.

Saturday 23 February 2013 - Orange Park/Gainesville, FL - AFIO North Florida Chapter hosts meeting

Note on your calendars: The North Florida AFIO Chapter meets Saturday, 23 February rather than its customary date of 9 February. Starting time, schedule and location remain the same. Please RSVP to Quiel Begonia, Secretary/Treasurer at qbegonia@comcast.net or call 904-545-9549 as soon as you can so we can get an accurate head count and keep the country club happy.
The Chapter newsletter will be released in early February pending receipt of information on our guest speaker. We hope to see you at the meeting. Family and guests are cordially invited as well.

28 February 2013 - San Francisco, CA - "Defense Strategy for Acquisition and its Influence on Intelligence Gathering" is Lt. Col. William Chadwick's topic at AFIO Jim Quesada Chapter Luncheon.

Lt Col(R) William Chadwick , lecturer at The Naval Post Graduate School in Monterey, will be speaking on "Defense Strategy for Acquisition and its Influence on Intelligence Gathering." The luncheon begins at 11:30AM with no-host cocktails; meeting starts at noon. Location: The United Irish Cultural Center, 2700 45th Avenue, SF (between Sloat/Wawona). E-mail RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi at afiosf@aol.com and mail a check made out to "AFIO" to: Mariko Kawaguchi, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011. Members and students: $25; non-members $35.

Tuesday, 5 March 2013, noon - Washington, DC - "The Rice Paddy Navy: US Sailors Undercover in China" at the International Spy Museum

After the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1942, the US Navy knew it would need vital information from the Pacific. Captain Milton 'Mary' Miles journeyed to China to set up weather stations and monitor the Chinese coastline—and to spy on the Japanese. After a handshake agreement with Chiang Kai-shek's spymaster, General Dai Li, the Sino-American Cooperative Organization (SACO) was born. SACO consisted of nearly 3,000 American servicemen, 97,000 organized Chinese guerrillas, and 20,000 "individualists," including pirates and lone-wolf saboteurs. This top-secret network worked hand in hand with the Nationalist Chinese to fight the Japanese invasion of China while erecting crucial weather stations, providing critical information to the US military, intercepting Japanese communications, blowing up enemy supply depots, laying mines, destroying bridges, and training Chinese peasants in guerrilla warfare. Join author Linda Kush as she reveals the story of one of the most successful—and little known— covert operation efforts of World War II.
Join the author for an informal chat and book signing.
Tickets: Free! No registration required. For more information visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 13 March 2013, 6:30 p.m. - Washington, DC - "Blowing Blofeld's Mind: The Psychology of Villainy" at the International Spy Museum

All the greatest men are maniacs. –Dr. No
The Spy Museum's new exhibition, Exquisitely Evil: 50 Years of Bond Villains, features some of the most memorable fictional evildoers of the last half century. Many were inspired by real world figures or by the actions of real people who were really evil. What makes people move down a dark path? These experts can tell you exactly how Bond villains demonstrate classic criminal or otherwise aberrant psychological behavior based on their experiences with real offenders: Dr. David L. Charney,who was the psychiatrist for notorious spy Robert Hanssen and interviewed him extensively in prison; and Dr. Stanton Samenow, a noted forensic scientist and author of The Criminal Personality and Inside the Criminal Mind. Dr. Samenow was the prosecution's mental health witness regarding the younger DC sniper, Lee Boyd Malvo. Why would someone betray their country like Robert Hanssen or GoldenEye's Alec Trevelyan? How realistic is the Stockholm syndrome suffered by Elektra King in The World Is Not Enough? What makes people consider crime as a way of life? In this extraordinary conversation, you'll learn exactly how maudlin sentimentality—Blofeld's love for his cat—can coexist with chilling brutality.
Tickets:  $20. To register or for more information visit www.spymuseum.org

27 March 2013 - New York, NY - "Circle of Treason" with Sandy Grimes, former CIA, at the AFIO NY Chapter Meeting

Sandy Grimes, one of the CIA principals behind the search and unmasking of Aldrich Ames - the traitor in their midst at CIA HQ - discusses in "Circle of Treason," her new book, co-authored with the late Jeanne Vertefeuille, this mole who nearly escaped capture. A remarkable story.
Location: Society of Illustrators 128 East 63rd St, New York City.
For further information contact Jerry Goodwin, Chapter President, at 646-717-3776 or email to afiometro@gmail.com

Wednesday, 27 March 2013 - Northampton, MA - "Typists to Trailblazers" - The History of Women's Advancement and Achievements at CIA

This CIA Historical Documents 'Release Event' Conference co-hosted with Smith College and features CIA’s women’s history month celebration. Speakers will discuss women's advancement, including Petticoat Panel Report, and other achievements that brought women into higher positions beyond the typing pool.
Additional program details to follow. Registration will be available here in coming weeks.
All AFIO members are invited.
REGISTER your interest in attending event by clicking email address at right to obtain additional details: events@afio.com

Tuesday, 9 April 2013, 11:30 am - MacDill AFB, FL - "My Life in the CIA" with Richard Holm at Meeting/Luncheon by Florida Suncoast Chapter

Richard Holm, a former paramilitary adviser, decorated operations officer, senior manager and station chief for the Central Intelligence Agency, will share fascinating stories of his experiences during the Cold War. Drawing from the material he used in writing his book, The Craft We Chose: My Life in the CIA, he will recount highlights of his 35-year Agency career and explain why it is imperative for Americans to understand and support what the CIA does--a goal that also underlies AFIO's efforts to raise public awareness of the importance of national intelligence. He will also touch on the impact of an intelligence career on one's family and family life.
Location: MacDill AFB Surf's Edge Club, 7315 Bayshore Blvd, MacDill AFB, FL 33621.
RSVP: no later than Wednesday, April 3, for yourself and include the names of any guests.
Email or call the Chapter Secretary at (813) 832-1164 or at mfshapiro@att.net or visit www.suncoastafio.org
Cost: $20. You must present your $20 check payable to "Suncoast Chapter, AFIO" (or cash) at check-in to cover the luncheon. If you make a reservation, don't cancel and get a cancellation confirmation by the response deadline and then don't show up, you will be responsible for the cost of the luncheon.

Saturday 20 April 2013 - Milford, MA - AFIO New England Chapter hosts Mike Stedman on "'A' for Argonaut" at their Spring Meeting

Mike Stedman, South Boston born and bred, is a former political columnist, magazine writer, and intelligence consultant to major corporations. Formerly on the New England board of the Association for Intelligence Officers, he has been both a practitioner and critic of the spy world. Stedman, a former U.S. Army Reserve soldier with the 94th Infantry, has served as chairman of the New England Chapter of the Republican Jewish Coalition and President of his local Rotary Club. He lives outside of Boston with his wife. They have three sons, three daughters-in-law, and seven grandchildren, including identical twin boys.
But really... who is Michael J. Stedman?
Born Michael J. Hurley into a pre-arranged adoption at St. Mary's Infant Asylum in Boston's Dorchester neighborhood, Michael J. Stedman considers himself one of the luckiest people alive.
Location: Courtyard by Marriott in Milford, Mass. Hotel web site is here: http://www.marriott.com/hotels/travel/bosml-courtyard-boston-milford
Schedule: Registration & gathering, 1000 – 1130, Membership meeting 1130 – 1200; Luncheon at 1200 followed by keynote speaker; Adjournment at 2:30PM.
Questions to afionechapter@gmail.com

For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events


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