AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #05-15 dated 3 February 2015

[Editors' Note: The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary. IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse research inquiries, career announcements, or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding, and should verify the source independently before supplying any resume, career data, or personal information.]
If you are having difficulties with the links or viewing this newsletter when it arrives by email, members may view the latest edition each week at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm You will need your LOGIN NAME and your PASSWORD.
REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs, click here.

CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV -  Books, Obituaries and Upcoming Events

Books

Obituaries

Upcoming AFIO Events

Other Upcoming Events

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events 

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors:  pjk and fwr.  They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.


 

NCMF 2015 Spring Cryptologic Program

Wednesday, March 4, 2015 10:00 am - 1:00 pm

Add to My Calendar

Location: L-3 Communications at 2720 Technology Drive, Annapolis Junction, MD 20701 Description: The NCMF is pleased to welcome Phil Thompson, Col, USAF (Ret), for the Foundation's 2015 Spring Cryptologic Program. You will not want to miss this exciting program which promises new information and humorous anecdotes.

Col. Thompson will speak about his intelligence experiences as an attaché in Poland and the challenges of overcoming conventional wisdom, preconceived notions, and an aversion to studying maps of Soviet installations. The title of his presentation is "Little Things Matter: What Our Eyes Won't See and Our Ears Won't Hear."

Col. Thompson is a retired Air Force Signals Intelligence Officer who served as the Air and Defense Attaché in Poland during the era of Solidarity and the imposition of martial law in the early 1980s. His career included assignments in Pakistan, Vietnam, Germany, Greece, and Poland, as well as tours with the National Security Agency and the Pentagon. He also served on the faculty of the U.S. Army War College where he taught courses in national security strategy, the theory of war and strategic leadership with a special focus on Generals Ulysses S. Grant and George C. Marshall.

For further insight into the program: recommended reading is The Priest Who Had to Die by John Moody and Roger Boyes and A Secret Life by Ben Weiser. Both books are interesting reads on the cold-war era in Poland during the early 1980s and copies will be available for sale at the program.

Registration Details: Registration for the event includes lunch which will be served from 1200-1300. Register here online or mail your registration fee of $20 (NCMF Members) or $50 (Guests, includes a one-year NCMF basic membership) to the NCMF office at P.O. Box 1682 Fort George G. Meade, Maryland 20755-9998.

***Registration will close on 26 February.***
 

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Ex-Los Alamos Scientist Gets 5 Years in Nuke Spy Sting. A former Los Alamos National Laboratory scientist who pleaded guilty to trying to help Venezuela develop a nuclear weapon was sentenced Wednesday to five years in prison and three years of supervised release

Pedro Leonardo Mascheroni and his wife, Marjorie Roxby Mascheroni, pleaded guilty in 2013 to offering to help develop a nuclear weapon for Venezuela through dealings with an undercover FBI agent posing as a representative of the socialist South American country.

Pedro Mascheroni, a naturalized US citizen from Argentina, faced up to 5 1/2 years in prison and 10 years of supervised release at his sentencing before a federal judge in Albuquerque. His wife received a year and a day in prison for conspiring with her husband to sell nuclear secrets.

The US government is not alleging Venezuela sought US secrets. [Read more: Contreras/AP/28January2015]

Army, Air Force Joint Interoperability Provides Intelligence Products for Consumers. Intelligence organizations operating around the world work seemingly endless hours gathering intelligence from a myriad of sources ranging from simple to high tech. However, each gathering unit or organization may have their own individual processing, exploitation, and dissemination, also know as PED, methods to meet service specific-requirements using specialized sensors.

Because each unit is as different as the service branch they represent or the region in which they operate, in the past this intelligence was sometimes difficult to share or process in an efficient manner.

Today the need for effective communications between US military branches is more important than ever and the solution is joint interoperability.

Joint interoperability is a term many may be unfamiliar with in terms of intelligence operations. Intelligence interoperability is the ability for any service's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, or ISR, collected data to be processed, exploited and disseminated by the best available intelligence node providing the most effective support to any customer. [Read more: Aranda/Army.mil/29January2015]

Ex-Head of Boston Police Pushes for More Domestic Intelligence Gathering. The former head of the Boston Police, citing the 2013 Boston Marathon bombings and this year's Paris terror attacks, is among a group of former intelligence and counter-terrorism officials calling for stronger domestic spying programs to detect "homegrown'' extremists.

Former Police Commissioner Ed Davis, who oversaw Boston's response to the Marathon attacks, helped draft recommendations for policy makers that includes establishing the new post of national domestic intelligence director in Washington. The group also is calling on the federal government to empower state and local police to conduct more sleuthing and surveillance of possible terror suspects.

The proposals - which already have drawn concerns about civil liberties - would go beyond the steps taken in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2011 attacks.

"You can call it gathering intelligence, you can call it being preventive, doing good police work, but the truth is we have to stay on top of what is happening in our cities," said Davis, who left his Boston post in last year and is now a private security consultant. [Read more: Bender/BostonGlobe/29January2015]

Obama Seeks $14 Billion to Boost US Cybersecurity Defenses. President Barack Obama's budget proposal for the 2016 fiscal year seeks $14 billion for cybersecurity efforts across the US government to better protect federal and private networks from hacking threats.

The budget seeks an increase of about $1.5 billion from this year's $12.5 billion devoted to cybersecurity spending.

Federal cybersecurity funding has steadily increased in recent years, from $10.3 billion in 2013, reflecting the intensity of threats US companies and government agencies are facing from cyber intruders, both domestic and foreign.

The budget, released on Monday, calls for deployment of more intrusion detection and prevention capabilities, greater sharing of data with the private sector and other countries and more funding to beef up the government's ability to respond to attacks. [Read more: Shalal&Sheyukh/Reuters/2February2015]

Journalist Selected to Head Greece's Intelligence Service. Journalist Yiannis Roubatis on Saturday was appointed chief of Greece ‘s National Intelligence Service (EYP) following Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' decision.

Roubatis was born in 1948 in Ioannina and studied in the USA. He is a doctor of International Relations at the Johns Hopkins University.

He was Pasok's eurodeputy from 1994-1999 and close associate to Pasok founder and former Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou.

In 1987 he published the book"The US in Greece 1947-1967 based on his doctoral thesis for Johns Hopkins. [Makris/GreekReporter/1February2015]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

This Russian News Agency Doubled As a Spy Machine. Moscow's alleged spy ring in New York City sometimes took orders from a Kremlin-run news outfit. Talk about media bias.

A pair of accused Russian spies tried to gather intelligence about US financial markets, and potentially how to disrupt them, by feeding questions to journalists at the Russian state-owned news agency Tass, The Daily Beast has learned. The agency has a long history of giving cover to Russian spies, current and former intelligence officials say.

A criminal complaint released by the Justice Department on Monday lays out how the spies ran an alleged economic intelligence-gathering operation by developing the questions at the request of the news organization, which isn't identified in the document, so that journalists could pose them to New York Stock Exchange employees in the course of newsgathering. The operation crossed the line between traditional reporting and espionage, in a blurry terrain where Russian spooks have long been comfortable operating.

A person familiar with the investigation of the alleged spying ring confirmed the organization in question is Tass. [Read more: Harris/TheDailyBeast/27January2015]

After Three Russians Are Charged, the Prospect of a Spy Swap Surfaces. In the summer of 2010, an unlikely espionage ring based in the suburbs of New York ended in an even more unlikely fashion: an exchange of Russian and American prisoners conducted on a sunny tarmac in Europe.

Now, with another espionage ring exposed in New York, the question re-emerges: What do you do, especially in post-Cold War times, with an accused spy?

On Monday, Preet Bharara, the chief federal prosecutor in Manhattan, announced charges against three Russians, accusing them of working as covert agents for the SVR, the Russian foreign intelligence agency. One man, Evgeny Buryakov, 39, was arrested and detained on charges that he had failed to register as an agent of a foreign government. The others, Igor Sporyshev, 40, and Victor Podobnyy, 27, were covered by diplomatic immunity and are no longer in the country, the government said.

The charges stemmed from an investigation that began in the months after the 2010 espionage ring was broken up by the authorities. Ten Russian agents pleaded guilty and were sentenced to time served. The spy swap agreement came during warming relations between the United States and Russia. [Read more: Weiser&Pastor/NYTimes/27January2015]

CIA and Mossad Killed Senior Hezbollah Figure in Car Bombing. On Feb. 12, 2008, Imad Mughniyah, Hezbollah's international operations chief, walked on a quiet nighttime street in Damascus after dinner at a nearby restaurant. Not far away, a team of CIA spotters in the Syrian capital was tracking his movements.

As Mughniyah approached a parked SUV, a bomb planted in a spare tire on the back of the vehicle exploded, sending a burst of shrapnel across a tight radius. He was killed instantly.

The device was triggered remotely from Tel Aviv by agents with Mossad, the Israeli foreign intelligence service, who were in communication with the operatives on the ground in Damascus. "The way it was set up, the US could object and call it off, but it could not execute," said a former US intelligence official.

The United States helped build the bomb, the former official said, and tested it repeatedly at a CIA facility in North Carolina to ensure the potential blast area was contained and would not result in collateral damage. [Read more: Goldman&Nakashima/WashingtonPost/30January2015]

Westminster Child Abuse Scandal: KGB and CIA Kept Secret Dossiers on Britain's VIP Paedophiles. Both Russian and US intelligence knew about a group of powerful paedophiles operating in Britain and the KGB hoped to blackmail them in exchange for information.

Russian and US spies compiled their own secret dossiers on paedophile MPs and other VIP abusers, it has been claimed.

Police are investigating missing files put together by UK campaigners which allege a powerful network at the heart of Westminister in the 1970s and 80s.

The Sunday People can reveal that agents from the Russian KGB and the American CIA were also said to have compiled their own intelligence in search of "dirt" on key individuals at the height of the Cold War. [Read more: Hale/TheMirror/31January2015]

Still Going Strong - the Top Secret Bletchley Girls Who REALLY Won the Second World War. Sunday People political editor Nigel Nelson has been trying to unravel his mum's MI6 past. Now he finds an original Bletchley Girl who knew her.

It's not being 96 which makes Bletchley Girl Jean Tocher struggle to recollect the events of 70 years ago.

The need for absolute secrecy was so drummed into her at Bletchley Park, the Second World War code-cracking centre, that it has become second nature.

"We were so trained to forget that now I find it hard to remember," she says.

But I am trying to jog her memory with a selection of fading black and white pictures of my mum - another Bletchley Girl who died nearly 14 years ago. [Read more: Nelson/TheMirror/31January2015]

A Banker Comes in From the Cold. Edwin "Ed" Hale Sr., a retired bank executive known locally for his sharp-elbowed approach to business, installed video surveillance on his 186-acre farm and still sleeps with a sawed-off shotgun by his bed.

His friends, former employees and even his own daughters were shocked to learn in his recently published biography that he had ample reason to do so: The former chief executive and chairman of Bank of Baltimore says he worked covertly for the Central Intelligence Agency for almost a decade in the 1990s and early 2000s.

During that time, he said, he spoke regularly with a CIA handler and allowed the agency to create a fake company under his corporate umbrella, which included shipping and trucking companies he ran at the same time he led the bank. Operatives in the field used the fictitious firm as cover when traveling the world, complete with business cards and hats. Mr. Hale said he worked under "nonofficial cover," in which his identity was unassociated with the US government.

In the early 1990s, Mr. Hale said, the CIA used agents posing as his employees to track Osama bin Laden's whereabouts and gather information on the terrorist's financing operations.

"It was very cathartic" to finally reveal his ties to the CIA, the 68-year-old said in a recent interview at his home overlooking Chesapeake Bay. "To hold a secret like that for so long to yourself, it was difficult." [Read more: Steinberg/WallStreetJournal/1February2015]

Director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency: Who Is Robert Cardillo? Robert Cardillo took over as director of the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) on October 3, 2014. NGA collects, processes, and dispenses satellite imagery for national security purposes.and analyzes intelligence information through the lens of geography and maps.

It didn't take long in office for Cardillo to be forced to deal with an embarrassing incident when, on January 26, 2015, an NGA employee mistakenly flew a drone onto the White House grounds. On the other hand, shortly after Cardillo took over, the NGA created a website to share images to help track the spread of Ebola in West Africa.

Cardillo is an Army brat; his father Richard is a West Point graduate and rose to the rank of brigadier general. Cardillo went to Cornell, graduating in 1983 with a B.A. in government.

He went to work soon thereafter for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) as an imagery analyst. Instead of being a spy, the early part of his career involved preparing classified items to be burned. He quickly moved up the ranks though, and was trained as a Soviet analyst. In 1988, Cardillo earned an M.A. in national security studies from Georgetown University. [Read more: AllGov/31January2015]


Section III - COMMENTARY

Fiscal 2016 Budget Preview: Intelligence. We haven't seen as much leg on President Obama‘s fiscal 2016 intelligence budget proposal as we have on his defense budget, but then, we hardly ever see much of that classified spy agency spending. We do know a few things, however.

In little-noticed remarks, a Defense Department intelligence official said one focus of the spy budget would be asymmetrical warfare.

"In many ways, we have a unique problem that's common to our defense planning scenarios," said Jim Martin, assistant undersecretary of Defense for intelligence portfolios, programs and resources. "Initiative, space and time are on our opponents' side." [Read more: Starks/RollCall/29January2015]

Strategies to Enhance Intelligence Analysis. If you've ever watched a thriller about undercover agents, you probably have the impression that intelligence officers are models of objectivity, pragmatism and sharp, unbiased thinking. However, in reality even the most well-trained and highly honed intelligence brain is still a human brain. As such it is vulnerable to influences that may steer it towards ill-judged decisions - these are known as 'cognitive biases'. The RECOBIA project, which held its final conference in Brussels last week, sought to explore and assess these cognitive biases, investigate their affect on the practice of intelligence analysis and develop mitigation strategies to address their impact.

Speaking at the conference, RECOBIA project coordinator Frederik Schumann of CEIS defined cognitive biases as 'psychological distortions produced by the use of rules of thumb which fasten our cognitive processing of information'. One example of a cognitive bias would be our tendency to trust information from an 'older, white, male scientist' regardless of whether their expertise is relevant to solving our specific problem. Another is the 'familiarity bias' - our tendency to trust information from a person we have met before over information from someone we don't know. Frederik explained how, over the past three years, the nine RECOBIA partners have worked together to develop strategies that will ultimately help mitigate the impact of cognitive biases in intelligence to improve quality in the field.

A core step in the RECOBIA process was identifying seven Key Intelligence Tasks (KITs) carried out by those working in the field of intelligence on a daily basis. These KITs were then examined in detail in order to identify and document 28 cognitive biases that intelligence officers may be subject to in the course of their work. The RECOBIA team then brought these concepts to life with 40 specific situations that illustrate the impact and effects of cognitive biases. [Read more: Phys.org/30January2015]

4 US Intelligence Assumptions That Need to Go. Last fall, the Washington Post reported that CIA was considering a massive reform of the National Clandestine Service and the Directorate of Intelligence. CIA Director John Brennan was considering combining much of the two directorates - responsible for clandestine human intelligence and analysis, respectively - into centers, like the existing Counterterrorism Center (CTC). Most observers have lauded the move as an innovative approach to intelligence reform that would exploit the synergy of analysts and operators working closely together. The uncritical reception shows that nearly fourteen years since the “national failure” of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, the words intelligence reform seem to retain some magical character about the self-evident correctness of the cause. One can hardly avoid thinking of George Orwell's bleating choir: “intelligence reform good, CIA bad.” The assumptions that underpin such optimistic reception of nearly any intelligence reform proposal, however, are problematic for the long-term health of the US Intelligence Community.

The flaws in this intelligence-reform mentality are four-fold - and each plays a role in how proposals like Brennan's reported reforms are generated and discussed, as well as past reforms such as creating the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. First, many intelligence-reform proponents conflate the very different disciplines of what we normally think of as intelligence and security intelligence, which includes activities like counterterrorism. Second, the problems with the CIA and the US Intelligence Community are organizational. Third, security stovepipes no longer reflect modern intelligence concerns. Finally, they assume US intelligence agencies are basically the same, making centralization and reducing duplication effective means of improving intelligence performance.

Not all forms of intelligence - even if performed by the same agency, like the CIA - are the same, and they may entail completely different relationships than develop between traditional intelligence officers and policy makers. The traditional intelligence targeting of foreign governments to support policy makers, known as foreign intelligence, simply is not comparable to the four security-intelligence disciplines - counterterrorism, counterintelligence, counterproliferation and counternarcotics - for which the CIA maintains centers. [Read more: Mattis/NationalInterest/2February2015]

The Intercept's Invitation to Criminality - and to Intelligence Agencies. The Intercept posted an interesting document yesterday designed to help a certain class of would-be-criminals - leakers of classified information - but which will, I would imagine, interest a different group of people too. The document, entitled How to Leak to the The Intercept is just what it sounds like - a how-to guide, complete with steps to take and steps to avoid, to leaking sensitive material to the publication without getting caught. The document details technologies to use to avoid detection (Tor, Tails, and The Intercept's own SecureDrop leaking system, which it describes as "an open source whistleblower submission system, to make it simpler and more secure for anonymous sources to get in touch with us.") It details as well things to worry about and things not to do: "Strip metadata from documents," reads one helpful tip. "Compartmentalize and sanitize," says another.

It all culminates with a section usefully entitled, "How to Actually Leak."

It's a snazzy presentation, and if I were a would-be leaker, I'd be intrigued. But I might be even more intrigued if I were, say, representing an intelligence agency. Probably not a US intelligence agency, to be clear. The Intercept folks, after all, are US persons, and there are all these laws and rules preventing our services from spying on such people or hacking their systems - at least without a warrant.

But let's say I were with some other intelligence agency, either one allied with our forces or one hostile to it. I might notice that The Intercept is trafficking in really neato stolen goods. They're soliciting more. And what's more, they're advertising what could be a really great, so to speak, phishing hole - that is, a mechanism to send them files and maybe get them onto their computers. If I were a foreign intelligence agency, I'd be looking at this as a great way to send enticing-looking documents, maybe even real ones, that contain some nifty bits of executable code that offered visibility for me onto the activities of people with access to the Snowden materials, people who are talking to and recruiting other leakers. Or maybe I'd be drop some honey-pot files, some files that beacon their location. Or maybe I'd just use the opportunity to drop disinformation on journalists who have shown they will believe just about anything if it's disparaging of US intelligence. [Read more: Wittes/Lawfare/29January2015]

Intelligence Agencies Tout Transparency. A year and a half after Edward Snowden's surveillance revelations changed intelligence work forever, the US intelligence community is formally embracing the value of transparency. Whether America's spies and snoopers are ready to take that idea to heart remains an open question.

On Tuesday, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper released a set of principles that amounts to a formal acknowledgement that intelligence agencies had tilted so far in the direction of secrecy that it actually undermined their work by harming public trust.

"The thought here was we needed to strategically get on the same page in terms of what we were trying to do with transparency," DNI Civil Liberties Protection Officer Alex Joel told POLITICO Monday. "The intelligence community is by design focused on keeping secrets rather than disclosing them. We have to figure out how we can work with our very dedicated work force to be transparent while they're keeping secrets."

The principles (posted here) are highly general and include a call to "provide appropriate transparency to enhance public understanding about the IC's mission and what the IC does to accomplish it (including its structure and effectiveness)." The new statement is vague on whether specific programs or capabilities should be made public. In addition, the principle on handling of classified information appears largely to restate the terms of an executive order President Barack Obama issued on the subject in 2009. [Read more: Gerstein/Politico/3February2015]


Section IV - Books, Obituaries and Upcoming Events


Books

Former Spy Steps Out of Tasmanian Shadows to Reveal His Part in Northern Ireland's Troubles. A former British serviceman has stepped out of the shadows of a Tasmanian retirement to unveil himself as a spy for London, deeply embroiled in the Irish Troubles.

Refusing to accept that past atrocities should go unpunished, Maurice Tansey said he would take what came at him, in his quest for peace of mind.

"For myself, I basically say let it happen," Tansey said. "My wife's happy with that. If it's going to happen, let it happen."

Tansey, now 67, said he served in Ireland at the height of the Protestant-Catholic conflict, where after a term with the SAS, he infiltrated both sides, working undercover for Britain's Secret Intelligence Service, or MI6. [Read more: Darby/SydneyMorningHerald/2February2015]

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Obituaries

Barry L. Stevenson. Barry L. Stevenson, 76, of 422 W. Main St., Waynesboro, Pennsylvania, died Monday morning, Feb. 2, 2015, in his home.

Born July 9, 1938, in Waynesboro, he was the son of the late Paul H. and Kathryn (Heefner) Stevenson.

He graduated from Waynesboro Area Senior High School with the class of 1956. He later received his Bachelor's Degree from Elizabethtown College in 1960 and his Master's Degree from the University of Michigan in 1961. He also took courses at Stanford University and graduated from the US National War College in 1984, where he taught as a professor from 1984-87.

Mr. Stevenson served as a military policeman with the United States Army from 1961-1963 in both Germany and France.

He and his wife of over 19 years, Joyce (Brown) Rivera Stevenson, were married on March 25, 1995, in Smithsburg, Maryland.

Mr. Stevenson worked with the US Central Intelligence Agency as an Intelligence Officer from 1965 until his retirement as the CIA's Deputy Director of East Asian Analysis in 1997. During his time in the CIA, he was a member of the US Arms Control and European Security delegations to international negotiations, spent time as a Senior Duty Officer at the CIA Operations Center, and also served for a time as a Special Investigator for the CIA Office of the Inspector General. Following his retirement, he worked part time on contract as Director of Central Intelligence Ombudsman for Issues of Politicization of Intelligence. [Read more: WaynesboroRecordHerald/3February2015]


AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

Thursday, 5 February 2015, 6 pm - Las Vegas, NV - AFIO Las Vegas Meeting with Speaker TBA

Please join us at 5 pm in the "Texas Star Oyster Bar" for liaison and beverages. Our featured speaker for the evening will be: TO BE ANNOUNCED Place: Texas Station Hotel and Casino in The Conference Center 2101 Texas Star Lane, North Las Vegas Nevada 89032 (702) 631-1000 You may email Mary Bentley marysinvegas@centurylink.net, anytime or call her at 702-295-0417, if you have any questions. We look forward to seeing you!

Saturday, 7 February 2015, 11:30 am - Melbourne, FL - The Florida Satellite Chapter AFIO hears Gene Poteat, AFIO President-Emeritus, on “The Unusual and Amusing Experiences I’ve Encountered in My CIA Career.”

Immediate AFIO National Past President (and now President emeritus) S. Eugene Poteat will discuss “The Unusual and Amusing Experiences I’ve Encountered in My CIA Career.” All who know him know that Gene has a keen sense of both the unusual and the amusing, and his presentation promises to be both entertaining and informative. In addition, this meeting will mark both the retirement of Chapter president Bobbie (aka Barbara) Keith and the inauguration of a new FSC Chapter president. For information and reservations, contact Barbara Keith at bobbie6769@juno.com or call 321.777.5561. Event location: Indian River Colony Club At Ease Club.

Saturday, 7 February 2015, 11 am - Orange Park, FL - AFIO North Florida Chapter hosts meeting featuring Ted Bischof.

Our guest speaker will be Mr. Ted Bischof. You may remember him as our speaker in November 2009, and this time he'll be expanding on some exciting subjects only briefly touched upon back then. More details on Mr. Bischof and his presentation to follow in the newsletter, which I hope will hit the internet sometime next week. General Webb will be conducting his (in)famous "Lightning Round," so please send him any topics or subject matter you might want discussed at wwebb@comcast.net right away. Location: Country Club of Orange Park. Questions and reservations: Quiel Begonia at qbegonia@comcast.net call (904) 545-9549. Cost will be $24 each, pay the Country Club at the luncheon.

Tuesday, 10 February 2015 - MacDill AFB, FL - AFIO Suncoast Chapter hosts Patrick Guarnieri speaking on "intelligence applications of brain enhancement."

Our Meeting features our own Chapter member Patrick Guarnieri, speaking on the latest developments and innovative approaches to modify and enhance brain function which have drawn the attention and interest of the intelligence community and the military. Patrick Guarnieri served in Vietnam in 1968 and 1969. He later earned a Bachelor’s of Science Degree, Masters of Business Administration, and Law Degree. He is currently a Doctoral Candidate in Strategic Security. He practiced law for twenty years until 2001 when he became the Chairman of the National Conference on Homeland Security; an organization that worked with the White House and Congress to assist in the formation and organization of the Department of Homeland Security, Northern Command and numerous other security related projects. He now teaches at the University of South Florida in the National and Competitive Intelligence Programand trains the military in advanced operations augmentation. He is also the President of the National Association of HPA Professionals, which directs its attention to Human Process Augmentation that will be discussed in today’s presentation.
Patrick will be discussing the latest developments and innovative approaches to modify and enhance brain function which have drawn the attention and interest of the intelligence community and the military. He will also introduce us to the first major revision (Generation II) of Meyers-Briggs/DISC since the typologies were originally developed and will describe how the government foresees its utility.

LOCATION: MacDill AFB Surf’s Edge Club, 7315 Bayshore Blvd, MacDill AFB, FL 33621. Please RSVP to the Chapter Secretary for yourself and include the names and email addresses of any guests. Email or call Michael Shapiro at sectysuncoastafio@att.net. You will receive a confirmation via email. If you do not, contact the Chapter Secretary to confirm your registration. Check-in at noon; opening ceremonies, lunch and business meeting at 1230 hours, followed by our speaker.
FEE: You must present your $20 check payable to “Suncoast Chapter, AFIO” (or cash) at check-in to cover the luncheon. If you make a reservation, don’t cancel and get a cancellation confirmation by the response deadline and then don’t show up, you will be responsible for the cost of the luncheon.

Wednesday, 11 February 2015, 11:30AM - Scottsdale, AZ - The AFIO Arizona Chapter hosts Gilbert Orrantia, Director of Arizona Department of Homeland Security

Director Gilbert M. Orrantia became the Director of the Arizona Department of Homeland Security in June, 2009. Prior to heading Arizona’s Homeland Security efforts at the State, he served in the FBI for 26 years. Mr. Orrantia brings a national and global perspective on counterterrorism that is gained from vast counterterrorism experience including the supervision of an FBI counterterrorism squad in Phoenix and serving eight years as a Supervisory Special Agent. For four years he helped lead the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force in Phoenix, Arizona located at Arizona’s fusion center, known as the Arizona Counter Terrorism Information Center (ACTIC). Recognized as an expert in investigations of terrorism, drugs and violent crimes, Mr. Orrantia’s successful FBI law enforcement career is reflected in the numerous awards and commendations he received. Among them are two of the FBI’s highest commendations: the Medal of Valor and the FBI Star. These awards were made to Mr. Orrantia for his role in the deadliest firefight in FBI history;- a gun battle known as the “Miami Shootout” in which two fellow FBI agents were killed. Mr. Orrantia has lectured to members of the FBI Academy at Quantico, VA on officer safety and survival and continues to share his expertise in surviving a deadly encounter with numerous law enforcement agencies. Director Orrantia currently serves on the Executive Committee of the National Governors Association Homeland Security Advisors Council and also serves as a Tri-Chair of the National Homeland Security Consortium. In April of 2013, he was appointed by Governor Jan Brewer to serve as Co-Chair of the Governor’s Task Force on Human Trafficking. Mr. Orrantia, a native Arizonan who is fluent in Spanish, was raised in Mesa, Arizona. He is a graduate of Arizona State University with a Bachelor of Arts degree in Education.
LOCATION: McCormick Ranch Golf Course, 7505 McCormick Parkway, Scottsdale AZ 85258 ~ Phone 480.948.0260)
RSVP to Simone at simone@4smartphone.net or simone@afioaz.org or call and leave a message on 602.570.6016
WE WILL NEED YOUR RSVP no later than 72 hours ahead of time; in the past, not reserving or canceling without prior notice (72 hours prior to the meeting) created much grief for those of us organizing the meeting and dealing with the personnel. WE ARE charged for the no-shows and please remember, we are a small organization with a humble coffer.
Fee $20 for AFIO members; $22 for guests.

13 February 2015, 1:30 - 3 pm - Los Angeles, CA - AFIO Los Angeles Chapter Meets to conduct Election of New Officers

AFIO-LA will conduct its 2015 Annual Chapter Meeting on February 13, 2015 (Friday) from 1.30 PM-3 PM at Alejo's Restaurant in Playa del Rey, the address is listed below. We will be conducting our re-election of chapter officers along with an open discussion of our agenda for the new year of 2015. This meeting is open only to current updated dues chapter members, lunch will be served, if you are interested in running for any of the chapter officer positions or attending this meeting please RSVP via email (AFIO_LA@yahoo.com) by February 6, 2015.
Location: Alejo's Italian Restaurant, 8343 Lincoln Blvd, Los Angeles, CA
Agenda: Election of Officers: President & Treasurer; Treasurer's Financial Report; Upcoming Events & Focus for 2015; Open Discussion.

5 March 2015 - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Andre LeGallo Chapter hosts Lt. Col. Enrique Oti, National Security Affairs Fellow, Hoover Institution. Topic: "Chinese Threats to the Internet - It is Not Just Hacking." The briefing will cover Chinese hacker methodologies and will dive deeply into Chinese vision for the future of cyberspace and the threats to the United States that this entails. Four unique Chinese cyber strategies (domestic development, international environment, domestic security and war) will be discussed.

11:30AM no host cocktails; meeting starts at noon. United Irish Cultural Center, 2700 45th Avenue, SF (between Sloat/Wawona). E-mail RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi at afiosf@aol.com and you will be sent an Eventbrite link to reigster. Alternately, mail a check made out to "AFIO" to: Mariko Kawaguchi, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011. Members and students: $25; non-members $35. $35 at the door. RSVP is required for this meeting.

Other Upcoming Events

Wednesday, 04 February (also 11 Feb., 18 Feb., and 25 Feb.) 2015, 10:15am - Washington DC - Spy Seminar Series. Hot Spies/Cool Cases: 50 Shades of Espionage at the International Spy Museum.

Spy thrillers are filled with seductive agents who get what they want through the power of persuasion—between the sheets. Does this actually happen? Are there “Romeo spies” and “honey traps”? Is sexpionage a reality? In this series, former intelligence officers and historians share the stories of five magnetic and charming spies who used the bedroom as their base of operations.

Wednesday, 4 February 2014 - "The Swingers"
Wednesday, 11 February 2014 - "The Profumo Affair"
Wednesday, 18 February 2014 - "Stalin’s Romeo Spy"
Wednesday 25 February 2014 - "Codename Cynthia"

Details on all dates above are here.

Friday, 6 February 2015 - Chantilly, VA - The ATIA (Adv. Technical Intelligence Assn.) hosts a Future Directions Workshop for Industry (TS/SI/TK/USONLY) on Supporting the ODNI IC S&T Stratplan.

As many of you know, the The ODNI Director of Science and Technology (DS&T) has committed to ensuring that the Intelligence Community’s (IC’s) science and technology (S&T) investment portfolio aligns with capability needs and takes advantage of promising S&T development opportunities. Industry is expected to be a critical part of this effort. To support this objective, the FY2015-2019 IC S&T Investment Landscape was published and, later ODNI-RFI-14-02 was released. To date, nearly 2200 potential solutions to Landscape needs have been received in response.

This is extremely important to industry and ATIA has been developing a "New Science" workshop to be held on February 6, 2015, to build on DS&T's efforts and to solicit the views of industry on future directions in intelligence science and technology. Based on industry responses to date, six (6) initial "cluster" areas have been identified. Our objective will be to use those six as early focal points to generate industry-led roadmaps from which to inform the IC in the preparation of its S&T plans for the development of important next-generation capabilities.

We're moving quickly to respond to the government's initiative hence the February 6 date for an initial workshop. Our objective is to follow-up on industry's initial response but also facilitate and expand the dialogue on this important undertaking.

LOCATION: TASC Westfields I, Room WF-1415, 4801 Stonecroft Blvd., Chantilly, VA 20151

REGISTER or MORE INFO: https://www.regonline.com/builder/site/?eventid=1670610

QUESTIONS: James B. Longley, Jr., Executive Director, ATIA, 207-846-4158 (ME Voice/Msg/Fax); 202-255-8841 (Cell); 703-812-4662 (DC Voice/Msg/Fax); JBLongley@aol.com; http://ATIA-Assn.org

Wednesday, 11 February 2014, 8:30 A.M. – 4:30 P.M - Washington, DC - The Journal of National Security Law & Policy Annual Symposium

Hold the date! Conference theme: Trials and Terrorism: The Implications of Trying National Security Cases in Article III Courts.
The symposium will feature the following three panels:
Panel 1, “Terror Suspects: Pretrial Considerations in Civilian Terrorism Investigations,” will provide an overview of international terrorism cases from investigation to indictment.
Panel 2, “Courtroom Challenges: The Evidentiary and Trial Management Issues that Arise During Terrorism Trials” will focus on the evidentiary and procedural challenges that arise during the trial of defendants charged with terrorism offenses and the implications these potential precedents could set.
Panel 3, “Convicted Terrorists: Sentencing Considerations and Their Implications on Foreign and Domestic Policy,” will focus on the factors that impact the sentencing phase of terrorism trials.
Location: Georgetown University Law School, Washington, DC
REGISTRATION: Will be available at http://jnslp.com/symposium/ in early 2015.

To attend click here and then submit the form on the page that opens, or email events@cato.org, fax (202) 371-0841, or call (202) 789-5229 by 9:00 a.m. on Thursday, December 11, 2014.

17 February 2015, 11:30 am - 2 pm - McLean, VA - DIAA's DIF meets to hear Russell Rochte on "Media Wars."

Mr. Russell C. Rochte, Jr. will speak on “Media Wars.” at the Defense Intelligence Forum, a gathering of the Defense Intelligence Alumni Association.
He will discuss recent academic studies which point out Al Q’aida and Associated Movements attempts to wage media wars. USA strengths and weaknesses against these wars will be discussed. He will suggest both a strategy and a body of tactics for both short-term and long-term success in the “war of ideas” via television media.
Mr. Rochte is a Certified Information System Security Professional (CISSP) and has been a member of the faculty of the National Intelligence University since 2005. He teaches courses in information operations, information power, foreign info ops, globalization, and propaganda/propaganda analysis to graduate and undergraduate students from across the US Intelligence Community. He also lectures by request several times yearly to audiences at the National Defense University; the NATO School at Oberammergau, Germany; Johns Hopkins University; the USMC Command & Staff College; and by invitation at a variety of events, both in CONUS and abroad.
Mr. Rochte graduated in 1980 from the University of Michigan as the Army Reserve Officer Training Corps Distinguished Military Graduate, and received a regular Army commission as a second Lieutenant in the US Army Signal Corps. He retired from the US Army in 2005 as a Lieutenant Colonel, after more than 25 years of active commissioned service. From June 2003 until his retirement, he taught information operations and information assurance courses on campus and on-line as a Professor of Systems Management at the Information Resources Management College of the National Defense University in Washington, D.C. He holds degrees from the University of Michigan (BA) and Troy State (MS), and has completed additional post-graduate work in information assurance, systematic theology, and American history.
Location: Pulcinella Restaurant, 6852 Old Dominion Drive, McLean, VA. Generous, free parking.
Fee: Pay at the door with a check for $29.00 payable to DIAA, Inc. Checks are preferred, but will accept cash; however, credit card payments are discouraged.
This forum will follow a modified Chatham House rule. You may use the information, but with the exception of speaker's name and subject, you may make no attribution. Everything will be off the record.
RSVP: Make reservations by 17 February 2015 by email to diforum@diaalumni.org. Include names, telephone numbers, and email addresses. For each attendee, choose among chicken cacciatore, tilapia puttanesca, lasagna, sausage with peppers, or fettuccini with portabella for your luncheon selection. Please include your luncheon selection to reduce the wait time for your food!!!

Wednesday, 4 March 2015, 10 am - 1 pm - Annapolis Junction, MD - National Cryptologic Museum Foundation [NCMF] 2015 Spring Cryptologic Program featured Col. Phil Thompson, USAF(R) on "Little Things Matter: What Our Eyes Won't See and Our Ears Won't Hear."

The NCMF is pleased to welcome Phil Thompson, Col, USAF (Ret), for the Foundation's 2015 Spring Cryptologic Program. You will not want to miss this exciting program which promises new information and humorous anecdotes. Col. Thompson will speak about his intelligence experiences as an attaché in Poland and the challenges of overcoming conventional wisdom, preconceived notions, and an aversion to studying maps of Soviet installations. The title of his presentation is "Little Things Matter: What Our Eyes Won't See and Our Ears Won't Hear."
Col. Thompson is a retired Air Force Signals Intelligence Officer who served as the Air and Defense Attaché in Poland during the era of Solidarity and the imposition of martial law in the early 1980s. His career included assignments in Pakistan, Vietnam, Germany, Greece, and Poland, as well as tours with the National Security Agency and the Pentagon. He also served on the faculty of the U.S. Army War College where he taught courses in national security strategy, the theory of war and strategic leadership with a special focus on Generals Ulysses S. Grant and George C. Marshall.
For further insight into the program: recommended reading is The Priest Who Had to Die by John Moody and Roger Boyes and A Secret Life by Ben Weiser. Both books are interesting reads on the cold-war era in Poland during the early 1980s and copies will be available for sale at the program.
Registration Details: Registration for the event includes lunch which will be served from noon-1 pm. Register here online or mail your registration fee of $20 (NCMF Members) or $50 (Guests, includes a one-year NCMF basic membership) to the NCMF office at PO Box 1682, Fort George G. Meade, MD 20755-9998. ***Registration will close on 26 February.***
Event Location: L-3 Communications at 2720 Technology Drive, Annapolis Junction, MD 20701

Tues-Wed, 24-25 March 2015 - Washington, DC - International Conference on Exercises, Gaming, and Simulations for Intelligence and National Security, Communication, Culture & Technology Program (CCTP)

Dates and times: Tuesday, March 24, 2015 at 8:30 AM - Wednesday, March 25, 2015 at 7:00 PM (EDT)
This international conference, between the Center for Intelligence Services and Democratic Systems at Rey Juan Carlos University and the School of Continuing Studies at Georgetown University will enhance the role of experiential learning methods and techniques showcasing original simulations, exercises, and games applied to national security intelligence, competitive intelligence, and foreign affairs. The conference will bring together ideas, concepts and demonstrations that can further train and educate military, law enforcement, and national security professionals.
A sample of conference topics include:  Scenario-based approach for developing the links between analysis and reporting;  Computational Simulation In Intelligence Analysis;  The Induction Game and Intelligence Education;  Gaming and Modeling Before a Crisis;  Use of Gaming and Exercise as Part of an Engagement Strategy;  Gaming the Nexus between Intelligence and Policy;  Concrete Tabletop Exercises for Cognitive Skill Development in Analysts;  Serious gaming & how to create visionary practitioners and policy makers;  Balancing Realism and Playability in the Intelligence Classroom;  Structured Analytic Techniques for Cyber Security through Role Playing; Cyber-Attack and Ethics Simulations;  Virtual Training Systems and Survival Humanistic Factors;
Discounted hotel accommodations, questions or comments should be directed to Dr. Jan Goldman jg28@georgetown.edu or Dr. Ruben Arcos Martin, ruben.arcos@urjc.es (outside North America)
Registration and Information is available here.

26 April to 3 May 2015 - Berlin and Vienna - ESPIONAGE IN EUROPE: Now and Then - a New York Times Journey with AFIO Member/former CIA Officer, Jon Wiant.

Reserve now to travel on this exciting eight day intelligence excursion. "Espionage in Europe: Now and Then" is a journey focused on history & context. From the Cold War to present day government phone-hacking. Berlin and Vienna are two of Europe's capital cities that have seen more than their fair share of activity. Explore how, why and who was involved, the back stories and realization that it will never go away.
Join us on a unique tour to Berlin and Vienna, to learn about both underground goings on and those taking place in plain site, how World War II shaped Cold War intelligence operations and why our espionage bases in Berlin and Vienna became the dangerous front lines of our conflict with the Soviet Union. The Times-selected expert accompanying this trip is Prof. Jon A Wiant, retired Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, former White House director of intelligence policy and former member of the CIA. To hear more about this tour, listen to Jon Wiant speak, during a recent webinar.
Cost: $7,450 pp, +$1,000 single supplement. Deposit $500. Itinerary: 8 days, 7 nights. Activity Level: More active trips involving hiking over moderately strenuous and varied terrain, usually — but not always — with vehicle support and at elevations most often below 10,000 feet, or trips with significant hiking days, wilderness camping, or other mandatory activity. On some trips, you can elect to skip a day’s hike, depending on logistics. Questions? Call 855-698-7979.


Disclaimers and Removal Instructions

Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced for non-profit educational uses by members and WIN subscribers. 

REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs: 

a)  IF YOU ARE A MEMBER -- click here: UNSUBSCRIBE and supply your full name and email address where you receive the WINs. Click SEND, you will be removed from list.  If this link doesn't open a blank email, create one on your own and send to afio@afio.com with the words:  REMOVE FROM WINs as the subject, and provide your full name and email address where you are currently receiving them.

 b) IF YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER, and you received this message, someone forwarded this newsletter to you [contrary to AFIO policies]. Forward to afio@afio.com the entire WIN or message you received and we will remove the sender from our membership and distribution lists. The problem will be solved for both of us.

CONTENTS of this WIN [HTML version recipients - Click title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to Contents. This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition or for some AOL recipients]. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at afio@afio.com. The HTML feature also does not work for those who access their e-mail using web mail...however NON-HTML recipients may view the latest edition each week in HTML at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm


WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor's) or author's) listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at www.afio.com for back issues of the WINs, information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and membership applications and much more!

(c) 2000, 2012, 2013, 2014, Please note AFIO's new address: AFIO, 7700 Leesburg Pike Suite 324, Falls Church, Virginia 22043. Voice: (703) 790-0320; Fax: (703) 991-1278; Email: afio@afio.com

Click here to return to top.