Weekly Intelligence Notes #29-16 dated 19 July 2016
NOTE: Users of Apple products and some newer
Microsoft email programs recently discovered that the internal
links (table of contents to story and back) found in many emailed
newsletters no longer work, including AFIO's Weekly Notes.
Research shows that this is a bug in Apple's iOS 8 onwards in the
way that webpages handle internal links when viewed as an email.
If that is the case for you, use the following link to view this
[Editors' Note are now
below the CONTENTS] REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish
to add clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs,
I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS
Section II - CONTEXT &
Section III -
Section IV - ANNOUNCEMENTS, and OBITS
Section V - Events
Upcoming AFIO Events
21 July 2016, 11:30 am - Colorado
Springs, CO - The Rocky Mountain AFIO Chapter presents two
speakers on: "Dynamism in the US and China Codependency
9 August 2016, noon - 2 pm - MacDill AFB, FL - The Florida
Suncoast AFIO Chapter hosts Capt Michael Silah,
Commander NOAA, on "Hurricane Hunters."
- Saturday, 13 August 2016, 11 am - 3 pm - Orange Park, FL - The North Florida Chapter hosts FBI Agent Dan Moxley, speaking on criminal operations, counterterrorism, counter-intelligence, cyber operations, and assessing the offensive and defensive capabilities of the U.S. government's adversaries from a technical perspective.
September 2016, 11:30am - Melbourne, FL - The AFIO Florida
Satellite Chapter hosts Lou Pernice on "The
History of Homeland Security."
Other Upcoming Events
19 July 2016, 7- 8:15pm - Washington, DC - Spy School Workshop
with Eric O'Neill and SpyChasers presents:
Welcome to Khandar - at the International Spy Museum
25 July 2016 10 am - 1 pm - Annapolis Junction, MD - The NCMF
2016 Summer Cryptologic Program features Gen Michael
V. Hayden on "American Intelligence in the Age of
- Wednesday, 24 August 2016, noon- 2 pm - Washington, DC - Debriefing the President - at the International Spy Museum
- Wednesday, 24 August 2016, 6:30 pm- 8:30 pm - Washington, DC - Spies on Screen: The Tall Blond Man with One Black Shoe - at the International Spy Museum
- 29 October 2016 - The Hague, Netherlands - "Witness to
Change: Intelligence Analysis in a Changing Environment" is
the theme of the NISA 25th Anniversary Conference
For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events
WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the
following special contributors: gh, mk, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th
and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in
The WIN editors attempt to include a wide
range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform
and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the
articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect
support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers
and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and
all articles and commentary.
IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse research inquiries,
career announcements, or job offers. Reasonable-sounding
inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our
members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You
are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when
responding, and should verify the source independently before
supplying any resume, career data, or personal information.]
If you are having difficulties with the links or viewing this
newsletter when it arrives by email, members may view the latest
edition each week at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm
You will need your LOGIN NAME and your PASSWORD.
Did you work for CIA's National Resources Division?
Alumni of CIA National Resources (NR) Division are planning a reunion at a dinner venue in northern Virginia on Saturday, 8 October 2016. Anyone who served in NR or its predecessor organizations are invited. The cost is $100 per person. Those interested in attending may contact Ned Carmody (email@example.com) for further information.
The NCMF 2016 Summer Cryptologic Program
Gen Michael V. Hayden on
"American Intelligence in the Age of Terror"
Monday, 25 July 2016, 10 am - 1 pm
Annapolis Junction, MD
The NCMF's 2016 Summer program, featuring a presentation by
former DIRNSA and Director, CIA, General Michael Hayden,
will be held from 1000-1115, followed by a question and answer
session from 1115-1145. Lunch will be served at 1145.
Gen Hayden will discuss the reasons behind his decisions to
respond to the world of terrorism and other challenges the United
States faced as the technological revolution proceeded with far
reaching demands. He defends these decisions strongly and provides
counter-arguments to accusations of wrongdoing which regularly
appeared in the media in the wake of the Snowden revelations.
General Hayden also defends the CIA workforce in the face of
disclosures about the rendition program, the methods of
interrogation, and the results of such controversial measures. One
of the key players in the modern world of intelligence, his
presentation will shed new light on some of the most controversial
issues of today's world. Gen Hayden's book, Playing the to
Edge: American Intelligence in the Age of Terror, was
recently published and he will cover information presented in that
memoir. A link to the NY Times review of his book is here.
A book signing with Gen Hayden will take place after his
presentation and his book will be available to purchase. In
addition, a selection of interesting books from the Foundation's
used book collection will be on sale in the lobby area.
WHERE: L-3 Communications at 2720 Technology Drive, Annapolis
Junction, MD 20701
REGISTRATION INFO: Don't miss this interesting, informative
program. The registration fee is $20 for members or $50 for guests
(includes a one-year NCMF membership). Register online via the REGISTER NOW link here. Or you
may mail-in your registration fee. Please mail checks to NCMF -
P.O. Box 1682 Fort George G. Meade, Maryland 20755-9998.
*Registration will close - COB 22 July 2016*
Nice attack: Why the terrorists are winning the intelligence war
and how to solve it
BY David P. Goldman on 15 July 2016 / SPENGLER
Yet another criminal known to security services has perpetrated a mass killing, the Tunisian Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel. Why did the French police allow a foreign national with a criminal record of violence to reside in France? Apart from utter incompetence, the explanation is that he was a snitch for the French authorities. Blackmailing Muslim criminals to inform on prospective terrorists is the principal activity of European counter-terrorism agencies, as I noted in 2015. Every Muslim in Europe knows this.
The terrorists, though, have succeeded in turning the police agents sent to spy on them and forcing them to commit suicide attacks to expiate their sins. This has become depressingly familiar; as Ryan Gallagher reported recently, perpetrators already known to the authorities committed ten of the highest-profile attacks between 2013 and 2015.
By deploying police snitches as suicide attackers, terrorists assert their moral superiority and power over western governments. The message may be lost on the western public, whose security agencies and media do their best to obscure it, but it is well understood among the core constituencies of the terrorist groups: the superiority of Islam turns around the depraved criminals whom the western police send to spy on us, and persuades them to become martyrs for the cause of Islam.
(Spengler article continues at this link.)
Since the Iraq War began in 2003, more than 50,000 people are estimated to have died from terrorism in that country--more than three times as many as in any other nation. Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nigeria have each lost more than 10,00 people to terrorism since 2003. -- The Economist
Current statistics on Islamic terrorism by the "religion of peace" are here.
Terrorists Seeking to Cut U.S. Powerlines
#1 story on Wall Street Journal website: How America Could Go Dark. Dozens of recent break-ins examined by The Wall Street Journal show how orders to secure the power grid have still left tens of thousands of utility substations vulnerable to terrorist saboteurs, with mysterious break-ins already occurring.
An early morning passerby phoned in a report of two people with flashlights prowling inside the fence of an electrical substation in Bakersfield, Calif. Utility workers from Pacific Gas & Electric Co. later found cut transformer wires.
See Rebecca Smith's troubling Wall Street Journal article here.
Section I - INTELLIGENCE
Honors Intelligence Professionals for Service to Nation. The
US Senate is honoring the courage and sacrifice of the men and women of
the US intelligence community by designating July 26 as United States
Intelligence Professionals Day.
US Sen. Warner (D- VA), a member of the Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence, introduced a resolution that was unanimously approved by the
Senate, acknowledging intelligence officers, past and present, for their
service and professionalism in protecting the United States from those who
wish to do us harm.
"Intelligence professionals work tirelessly in defense of our nation, yet we
seldom hear about their successes or their sacrifices," said Sen. Warner.
"These quiet heroes work in silence to protect the nation, being unable to
discuss their jobs even with their own families. As a member of the
Intelligence Committee, I see how their dedication and hard work keep our
country safe, and I thank them for their service to our nation."
This bill comes 69 years after President Harry Truman signed the National
Security Act of 1947, which laid the foundation for today's intelligence
community and continues to govern its activities. [Read more: AugustaFreePress/15July2016]
Fox News Commentator Sentenced to Prison for Faking CIA Ties. A
man who has appeared on Fox News as a guest "terrorism analyst" was
sentenced to 33 months in prison on Friday on charges that he fraudulently
claimed to have been a CIA agent for decades, US prosecutors said.
Wayne Simmons, 62, of Annapolis, Maryland, was sentenced in US District
Court in Alexandria, Virginia, the US Attorney's Office said in a
"Wayne Simmons is a fraud. Simmons has no military or intelligence
background, or any skills relevant to the positions he attained through his
fraud," said Dana Boente, US Attorney for the Eastern District of
US District Judge T.S. Ellis III also sentenced Simmons to serve three
years of supervised release, to forfeit two firearms and $176,000 in
criminal proceeds, and to pay restitution. [Read more: Reuters/15July2016]
Agencies Announce New Cooperation on Commercial Imagery. Two
US intelligence agencies - the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and
the National Reconnaissance Office - announced July 15 a new collaboration
to help their organizations buy and analyze commercial satellite imagery.
In recent years, NGA has undertaken several ventures, from formal strategies
to contracting experiments, to take advantage of a burgeoning commercial
imagery market, fueled in part by Silicon Valley startups. This latest
effort, known as the Commercial GEOINT Activity, is slated to kick off no
later than Sept. 30 and aims to help both agencies better use commercial
The new partnership will recommend investments to both agencies and help
synchronize acquisition from companies that both collect and analyze images.
The NRO, which builds and operates the country's spy satellites, is
responsible for collecting images from government satellites. The NGA is
responsible for processing those images into actionable intelligence.
"We're fortunate to witness a daily proliferation of new commercial
geospatial technologies and data sources," Robert Cardillo, NGA's director,
said during a speech in May at the GEOINT 2016 conference in Orlando. "Our
commercial space partners will provide meaningful, higher revisit
capabilities this year and we look forward to turning their exciting
potential into our mission reality." [Read more: Gruss/SpaceNews/17July2016]
Expands Foreign Intelligence Service. Russia has aggressively
expanded its Foreign Intelligence Service operation over the past decade,
according to recent satellite imagery that provides evidence of Moscow's
efforts to wage clandestine operations across Europe and in the United
The satellite imagery, which was compiled in a recent report on Russia's
global intelligence operation, shows that Moscow added several new buildings
and structures to its intelligence headquarters, known as SVR, from 2007 to
2016, a period that saw a dramatic rise in Russian espionage operations,
The images show the completed construction of at least three new buildings
around the complex, as well as an expansion of parking areas, which appear
to have quadrupled in capacity, according to an analysis of the images
provided by the Federation of American Scientists.
Experts tracking Moscow's efforts told the Washington Free Beacon that the
images coincide with separate reports on the country's growing intelligence
infrastructure and provide evidence that Russia is focused on boosting
clandestine operations across the globe. [Read more: Kredo/WashingtonFreeBeacon/13July2016]
Chamber Committee Backs Koudelka As Counter-Intelligence Chief. Czech
Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka proposed Michal Koudelka, 51, for a new
chief of the BIS civilian counter-intelligence service at a meeting of the
lower house security committee that recommended him unanimously on Thursday.
Koudelka, a long-time BIS officer, will replace Jiri Lang, 58, who asked for
dismissal himself in early June.
The government will debate the proposal for Koudelka's appointment at a
meeting on July 27. He could assume the post in mid-August, Sobotka (Social
Democrats, CSSD) said.
Lang as well as the security committee members supported Koudelka's
nomination at the meeting on Thursday. [Read more: CTK/15July2016]
Patnaik Appointed New National Intelligence Grid Chief. Senior
IPS officer Ashok Patnaik was on Wednesday appointed CEO of the National
Intelligence Grid (NATGRID), an ambitious intelligence gathering mechanism
conceived in the wake of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks.
The post has been vacant since May 2014, when Raghu Raman completed his
tenure - ad hoc and interim arrangements were made in the last two years.
Patnaik, a 1983-batch IPS officer of Gujarat cadre, is married to former PM
Manmohan Singh's daughter, Daman Singh. He was serving as an additional
director in the Intelligence Bureau.
A home ministry spokesperson confirmed that the Appointments Committee of
the Cabinet had approved Patnaik's appointment. "The appointment of CEO,
NATGRID will be effective from the date of assumption of charge of the post
up to December 31, 2018 i.e. the date of his retirement on superannuation or
until further orders, whichever is earlier," said the spokesperson.
[Read more: ExpressNewsService/14July2016]
Pushes for Coordination With Russia in Syria, Others in Administration Cry
Foul. The Obama administration's offer to coordinate air
attacks in Syria with Russia has opened a deepening rift between senior
national security officials who insist it could quiet Syria's civil carnage
and further larger counterterrorism goals, and those who consider it a
counterproductive sellout to the Kremlin.
Secretary of State John F. Kerry, who said last month that reaching an
"understanding" with Russia was "the most important thing" in moving Syria
forward, plans to push the deal when he meets Thursday in Moscow with
President Vladimir Putin.
The US proposal, which has not been made public, calls for the
establishment of a "Joint Implementation Group" with Russia, through which
the two countries would initially exchange intelligence and operational
information on the locations of Jabhat al-Nusra, al-Qaeda's Syrian
affiliate, and "synchronize" their independent operations against the
Islamic State. Once al-Nusra targets have been agreed, they would determine
what action to take and "deconflict" their air operations.
In exchange, Moscow would use its leverage to effectively ground Syria's air
force, limiting its operations to non-combat humanitarian and
medical-evacuation missions. Both the United States and Russia would
recommit themselves to pushing for a political settlement to Syria's civil
war. [Read more: DeYoung/WashingtonPost/12July2016]
Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE
History of Open Source Intelligence. Upstate New York, 1883 is
an odd place to start a blog on Open Source Intelligence. It was here that
one of intelligence's most influential figures was born. The son of devout
Irish immigrants, William Donovan grew up in a working class family,
excelling himself in school and academia.
Donovan's ambition was to become the first Roman Catholic President of the
United States. He did come close to the Presidency - in 1905, Donovan went
to Columbia Law School, where a young Franklin D. Roosevelt was among his
After fighting in World War I, Donovan had a successful career as an
international lawyer, narrowly missing out on becoming the Attorney General
in 1925. Throughout the interwar period, Donovan travelled the world as a
lawyer, meeting influential foreign figures and subsequently writing up
reports for the US Government in a semi official capacity.
It was Donovan's connection to F.D.R. that lead to the creation of an
intelligence agency in the United States. Until that time, the world of
intelligence and spying was seen as ungentlemanly by America. Donovan
lobbied F.D.R to formalise his unofficial work for the US Government and on
the 11th July, 1941, F.D.R. created for Donovan the post of Coordinator of
Information'. After Pearl Harbour, the need for intelligence was clear and
Donovan's department was renamed the Office of Strategic Services - the
precursor to the CIA. Like the Special Operations Executive in the UK, the
OSS was involved in everything from assassination attempts to agent running
and information warfare. [Read more: Colquhoun/Bellingcat/14July2016]
Zero Days Documentary Exposes a Looming Threat of the Digital Age. When
most of us think about computer hacking, we picture Julian Assange leaking
government secrets or a shadowy, bad-shave crook in some former Soviet
republic hoovering up credit card info from a chain store. But while folks
like these do stir up all manner of trouble, a much deeper danger lies
That danger is the theme of Zero Days, a chilling new film by Alex Gibney,
who sometimes seems to turn out documentaries as quickly as tweets. This
latest one may be his finest and most important, for it doesn't merely tell
an exciting story about using a computer virus to wage black ops against
Iran. Filled with juicy historical tidbits, it keeps expanding its frame of
reference to reveal one of the looming, but invisible threats of the digital
Gibney begins in 2010 in Belarus, where a computer security guy comes across
a highly infectious new kind of malware - dubbed Stuxnet - that is dazzling
in its complexity. Soon, computer whizzes, journalists and even our
Department of Homeland Security are working overtime to understand this
self-replicating virus that takes over every PC it touches.
Stuxnet is just too big, too perfect and too untraceable to be the work of
anything less powerful than a national government. But who created Stuxnet -
and why? [Read more: Powers/NPR/18July2016]
III - COMMENTARY
Test: What We Must Learn From Chilcot. During the avalanche of
brilliant hindsight unleashed by the Chilcot Report, few areas have received
a battering on the scale suffered by our intelligence-gathering agencies.
The 2003 cohort of spy-masters and analysts have been portrayed as gullible
fools, eager only to garner praise from their political masters, responsible
for compiling dodgy dossiers that generated tragedy and disaster.
I am not an apologist for our intelligence community. I have my own, very
serious doubts about the accuracy and quality of the intelligence that
informed the decision to deploy our armed forces to Helmand Province from
northern Afghanistan in 2005/6. I suspect that, in both the Iraq and Afghan
conflicts, there were key commanders and politicians who assumed that
lessons learned from the counter-insurgency operations in Northern Ireland
could be transferred with minimal adaptation for use in the towns and
deserts of Iraq and Afghanistan.
Accurate, well-reported intelligence, properly interpreted, should have
blown away such tired assumptions. [Read more:
Failure and the Pulse Nightclub Shooting. A month after the
tragic shooting in Orlando at the Pulse nightclub, observers are still
asking how someone on the FBI's radar could have purchased weapons and
killed 49 people.
The FBI had spoken with Omar Mateen, the shooter, three separate times. On
three occasions, the FBI found "no evidence of wrongdoing" and released
Mateen. They released him despite the fact that he admitted he lied to
agents, that witnesses said he made numerous threats, and that two
confidential informants recorded questionable conversations with him.
The FBI specifically released Mateen because there was no indication he had
ties to ISIS, Al-Qaeda or any other terrorist group. Even though he pledged
allegiance to a host of competing terrorist organizations just before the
attack, there is still no evidence he actually had ties to any group or that
he was even in contact with jihadists.
Instead, Mateen was a mentally unstable individual who elected to identify
with radical Islamic terrorist groups as an excuse for his violent
rage. [Read more: Ruth/CDN/14July2016]
Belongs in Jail, Not Free in Cuba. The Obama administration is
reportedly in secret negotiations with Cuba that would result in the release
from federal prison of one of the most damaging American spies in US
history. Such an extraordinary gesture would be preposterous for many
Ana Belin Montes, who is serving a 25-year sentence as part of a 2002 plea
deal, was a US Justice Department official with a top-secret security
clearance when she was approached by Cuban intelligence agents in 1984. At
the time the Cuban regime ran a pervasive spying program against the US,
as it still does today, though then it often acted in conjunction with the
Soviet Union. A devoted sympathizer of radical Latin American regimes, Ms.
Montes quickly agreed to spy for Havana, thus beginning a 16-year-long
betrayal of the US.
As prosecutors later showed, Ms. Montes took a secret trip to Cuba to meet
with her new spymasters, then sought government positions with greater
access to classified information that would be useful to the Castro regime.
In 1985 she began working for the Defense Intelligence Agency, which
specializes in military intelligence. Ms. Montes quickly rose through DIA
ranks, eventually becoming the agency's leading Cuba analyst. She was
granted access to top-secret classified information that she would memorize
at work and type up at home, later passing the information to her Cuban
As I conveyed in a July 12 letter to President Obama, it is difficult to
overstate the damage caused by Ms. Montes's treachery. [Read
Britain Has Been Kept Safe for a Decade. Terrorism, like
Europe, is an issue that has dominated British politics for decades. I woke
up on Friday morning expecting to hear the seismic fallout from Brexit
monopolising the headlines yet again. I was shocked when I heard the latest
news from Nice - that so many men, women and children had been horrifically
mowed down by a terrorist driving a lorry.
I was shocked but not surprised, given that the so-called Islamic State has
encouraged such attacks by individuals, who don't need a bomb or a gun to
carry out slaughter on such a scale. Here in the UK the killers of Fusilier
Lee Rigby heeded the same call using a knife. The difference is that one of
Lee Rigby's attackers was on MI5's radar while the Nice lorry driver was not
on France's equivalent - its "S" list of suspects.
Mass casualty attacks, as France, Belgium and the UK know only too well, are
the perpetual nightmare that governments fear - a nightmare that becomes all
too real when intelligence fails to detect them.
Since the London bombings of a decade ago, Britain has managed to avoid such
a mass attack. But statistics show it has been a close-run thing. Forty
terrorist plots have been disrupted since 2005 - including seven in the past
18 months. [Read more: Taylor/BBC/17July2016]
Intelligence Reform. France is once again in a period of
mourning. Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel's truck rampage on July 14 was the fifth
Islamist terrorist attack in France that has led to a loss of life since
January 2015. Nearly 150 people were killed in Islamist terror attacks in
France last year; after this week's barbarism in Nice, we are over half way
to hitting that number again.
It is sobering to realize that 2016's death count could have been much
higher. Consider the case of Ayoub el-Khazzani, who unsuccessfully tried to
gun down commuters on the Thalys train to Paris; of Tarek Belgacem and
Bertrand Nzohbonayo, who struck police officers with a meat cleaver and a
knife, respectively; or the soldiers targeted outside a mosque in Valence
and the Jewish community center in Nice in January and February of this
year. All these plots flew under the police and intelligence radar yet
either resulted in no casualties or were stopped by active duty officers or
quick-thinking civilians once the attack got underway.
There is no doubt that security agencies are overburdened, have an
exceptionally difficult job, and thwart more plots than not; it is often
noted that "we need to get lucky every time; the terrorists only need to get
lucky once," and that is indeed true. But in France, the terrorists have not
gotten lucky just once; they are getting lucky time and again. In other
words, it is obviously not luck that is on their side.
A parliamentary commission established to examine some of France's
intelligence failings reported back earlier this month. It identified an
unwieldy, complex bureaucracy, with six intelligence agencies reporting to
various government ministries (economic, national defense, the interior).
These agencies were collecting information but not connecting the dots. To
help combat this issue, the commission called for the six agencies to be
streamlined into one body. Although the creation of this US-style National
Counterterrorism Center could be a solution, one would be hard pressed to
find many people in US counterterrorism circles who believe that the NCTC
has been a panacea. [Read more: Simcox/ForeignAffairs/17July2016]
LTC Charles W. Baker (Ret), NSA analyst and historian, has died. Baker, 75, a resident of Laurel, MD, died 22 June 2016. He was a longtime Maryland Army National Guard officer, aviator and National Security Agency analyst and historian. He was raised in Ocala, FL, he was graduated from Ocala High School in 1958. He earned a B.S. in Business Administration from Auburn University in 1962, as well as a commission as an Army Lieutenant, Armor Branch. After a tour of ground duty with the cavalry in California, LT Baker attended flight school at Fort Rucker, Al, and became an Army aviator. He served in Korea, Germany, and Vietnam. In 1969 he attended graduate school at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, where he earned an MA in history. After additional aviation training he moved to Maryland to join NSA.
His decorations include the Distinguished Flying Cross, the Bronze Star Medal w/1st OLC, Meritorious Service Medal, Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry and various state and service awards. His last two years at NSA were as the Agency's oral historian, an assignment in which he recorded the memories of some World War II codebreakers. He retired at the end of 1994 with 20 years of service. He is survived by his wife, Katherine Phillips Baker, and children. He was a member of The Phoenix Society.
Of his passing, his NSA colleague Dr. David Hatch wrote: Baker came to the CCH as a researcher/writer, and did some short, general articles. Charley became NSA/CCH's second Oral Historian; he was a gregarious guy and this made him an excellent interviewer. He also had a deep fund of folkish anecdotes and comparisons, and always had something apt to say about any development. Charley also had no compunction about calling things as he saw them, and he was valuable to me because I knew I'd always get a frank opinion from him on plans and projects. I am the only one still in the CCH who knew him, and I have missed both the man himself and what he brought to our work ever since he left us.
Section V - Events
AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN
COMING TWO MONTHS....
21 July 2016, 11:30 am - Colorado Springs, CO - The Rocky Mountain
AFIO Chapter presents two speakers on: "Dynamism in the US and China
The world's largest two economies are dealing with significant, possibly
unsurmountable challenges. Internally, a widening income gap and questions
about political leadership have led many to wonder whether either the PRC
or the United States are on sustainable paths. Even as two-way trade
between the two is at all-time highs, domestic Chinese issues like capital
flight and slowing growth are changing the nature of bilateral economic
and political ties. The US government has leveraged cheap credit--largely
made possible by the PRC's appetite for treasuries--but Beijing has
started unloading its holdings.
And in the midst of all this, the PRC is asserting itself more on the
international scene, especially in the South China Sea. The discussion
will touch on the above issues as well the Chinese leadership's attempt to
guide an economic transition from export-based growth to one that centers
on internal consumption.
Dan S. has worked in human intelligence in Vietnam
before working at the RAND Corporation on B-52 effectiveness. He joined
the Defense Intelligence Agency as a strategic analyst and contributed to
National Security Memoranda and the President's Daily Briefing.
Afterwards, he was a faculty member at the United States Air Force
Academy's Political Science Department. He has a BA in English from
Trinity College and an MA in Sino-Soviet Studies from George Washington
University. He currently works in Denver.
Hans B. first traveled to the PRC in 1999; his
professional and academic endeavors have focused on China's society,
economy, and politics ever since. An analyst, Hans has advised many
businesses and government agencies on strategy and political risk, market
entry, and local partner development. He has a BA in Chinese Language and
Literature and Asian Studies from CU-Boulder and an MA in International
Affairs from George Washington University. Currently, he is an
entrepreneur in Colorado Springs.
For more information, please contact Tom VanWormer at firstname.lastname@example.org.
9 August 2016, noon - 2 pm - MacDill AFB, FL - The Florida Suncoast
AFIO Chapter hosts Capt Michael Silah, Commander NOAA, on "Hurricane
The Florida Suncoast Chapter luncheon features a very topical program by
CAPT Michael J. Silah, commander of the NOAA "Hurricane
The program is scheduled to start at noon and will include a remembrance
of the recently departed Dr. Ken Campbell, a longtime and treasured
Event location: MacDill AFB Surf's Edge Club, 7315 Bayshore Blvd, MacDill
AFB, FL 33621. Admission only allowed to those who have pre-registered
with the chapter for this event.
If you will be attending, respond to chapter secretary Michael
Shapiro no later than noon on Tuesday, 2 August, with your name and
the names of any guests. Please do not respond for others, aside from
designating any of your own guests, as this will also delay your
The Surf's Edge Club has tightened its reservation policy, so please do
not respond late.
If you (or any of your guests) have not previously attended one of our
meetings and need base access, Mr. Shapiro will provide instructions.
Important---if you make a reservation, and by 2 August have failed to get
a cancellation confirmation and then don't show up, you will be
responsible for the cost of the luncheon since the chapter will have to
pay for your meal whether you are present or not.
After you RSVP, you will received an acknowledgement from the chapter
confirming your registration. Should you not receive a reply within a day
or two of registering, get back in touch with Mr. Shapiro at email@example.com
to verify that your registration was received and to get a confirmation
The chapter is looking forward to seeing you at the meeting.
Questions to: Michael Shapiro, Secretary, Florida Suncoast Chapter of
AFIO, (813) 832-1164 or firstname.lastname@example.org
Saturday, 13 August 2016, 11 am - 3 pm - Orange Park, FL - The North Florida Chapter hosts FBI Agent Dan Moxley, speaking on criminal operations, counterterrorism, counter-intelligence, cyber operations, and assessing the offensive and defensive capabilities of the U.S. government's adversaries from a technical perspective.
Several new and interesting subjects will be covered at our August 13th meeting, ranging from criminal operations, counterterrorism, counter-intelligence, cyber operations, to assessing the offensive and defensive capabilities of the U.S. government's adversaries from a technical perspective. Our speaker, FBI Agent Daniel Moxley, was graduated from Florida State University in May 2009, and has been an FBI Intelligence Analyst for nearly seven years, supporting the FBI intelligence program at both the headquarters and field level. He has participated in numerous high visibility and priority FBI cases, such as the Edward Snowden Compromise, Mexican Drug Cartels, the Boston Marathon Bombing and, most recently, the intelligence community's first successful extradition of a terrorist subject providing support to an extremist group via computer operations.
Please RSVP to Quiel at QBegonia@comcast.net or call him at 904-545-9549. Remember that guests and potential members are cordially invited. Luncheon cost is the usual $24 per person, pay the wait staff at the club. Looking forward to seeing everyone.
2016, 11:30am - Melbourne, FL - The AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter
hosts Lou Pernice on "The History of Homeland Security."
Guest Speaker at this kick-off event for the fall season is Louis
Pernice, speaking on "The History of Homeland Security: The
American Experience from our Independence to 911." It will be presented
from abroad perspective covering both constitutional, budgetary and social
issues. Lou will also be covering the topic starting from the early
colonial days of defending our borders through the Civil War, both World
Wars, the Cold War, evolution of transnational terrorist threat and up to
the 9/11 attacks.
Lou's professional background includes: Career law enforcement professional
with a leadership record spanning over 40 years of demonstrated success in
five federal/state law enforcement/support agencies including: United
States Treasury Department Internal Revenue Service; US Department of
Agriculture Office of Inspector General; US Department of Justice -
Office of the Inspector General; US Immigration and Naturalization Service
- Office of Professional Responsibility; and the Brevard Police Testing
and Selection Center. Lou holds a Masters Degree in Public Administration
from John Jay College of Criminal Justice in New York and hold a
BachelorsDegree in Psychology from Brooklyn College in New York.
Event will be held at Indian River Colony Club, 1936 Freedom Drive,
Melbourne, FL 32940.
For more information or to register, do so at this chapter website link.
Other Upcoming Events
19 July 2016, 7- 8:15pm - Washington, DC - Spy School Workshop with
Eric O'Neill and SpyChasers presents: Welcome to Khandar - at the
International Spy Museum
You are invited to an evening at the Khandar Embassy with Eric
O'Neill - but all is not as it seems. The Embassy has just
become the center of an espionage investigation with global repercussions.
It's up to you to identify the spy from among four Embassy luminaries
before time runs out. Space is limited to 25 participants -- advance
registration is required. Tickets: $45. Visit www.spymuseum.org
July 2016 10 am - 1 pm - Annapolis Junction, MD - The NCMF 2016 Summer
Cryptologic Program features Gen Michael V. Hayden on "American
Intelligence in the Age of Terror."
The NCMF's 2016 Summer program, featuring a presentation by former
DIRNSA and Director, CIA, General Michael Hayden, will
be held from 1000-1115, followed by a question and answer session from
1115-1145. Lunch will be served at 1145.
Gen Hayden will discuss the reasons behind his decisions to respond to the
world of terrorism and other challenges the United States faced as the
technological revolution proceeded with far reaching demands. He defends
these decisions strongly and provides counter-arguments to accusations of
wrongdoing which regularly appeared in the media in the wake of the
Snowden revelations. General Hayden also defends the CIA workforce in the
face of disclosures about the rendition program, the methods of
interrogation, and the results of such controversial measures. One of the
key players in the modern world of intelligence, his presentation will
shed new light on some of the most controversial issues of today's world.
Gen Hayden's book, Playing the to Edge: American Intelligence in the
Age of Terror, was recently published and he will cover information
presented in that memoir. A link to the NY Times review of his
book is here.
A book signing with Gen Hayden will take place after his presentation and
his book will be available to purchase. In addition, a selection of
interesting books from the Foundation's used book collection will be on
sale in the lobby area.
WHERE: L-3 Communications at 2720 Technology Drive, Annapolis Junction, MD
REGISTRATION INFO: Don't miss this interesting, informative program. The
registration fee is $20 for members or $50 for guests (includes a one-year
NCMF membership). Register online via the REGISTER NOW link here. Or you may
mail-in your registration fee. Please mail checks to NCMF - P.O. Box 1682
Fort George G. Meade, Maryland 20755-9998. *Registration will close - COB
22 July 2016*
Wednesday, 24 August 2016, noon- 2 pm - Washington, DC - Debriefing the President - at the International Spy Museum
In December 2003, after one of the largest, most aggressive manhunts in history, US military forces captured Iraqi president Saddam Hussein near his hometown. Beset by body-double rumors and false alarms, the Bush administration needed positive identification of the prisoner before announcing the capture. John Nixon was a senior CIA leadership analyst who had spent years studying the Iraqi dictator. Called upon to make the official ID, Nixon looked for telltale scars and tattoos and asked Hussein questions only he could answer—the man was indeed Saddam Hussein. Join Nixon as he exposes the preconceived ideas that led Washington policymakers astray and presents a new perspective on America's most enigmatic enemy in Debriefing the President. Tickets: FREE. Visit www.spymuseum.org
Wednesday, 24 August 2016, 6:30 pm- 8:30 pm - Washington, DC - Spies on Screen: The Tall Blond Man with One Black Shoe - at the International Spy Museum
When this lighthearted tale of espionage, surveillance, and mistaken identity premiered in 1972 it became an international sensation. Pierre Richard is Francois the tall blond man, an unsuspecting violinist who becomes a pawn in a goofy, but deadly, game of spy versus spy within France's Counter-Espionage department. The screwball comedy features a fabulous femme fatale, much slapstick, and lots and lots of collateral damage. Enjoy popcorn and sparkling French soda along with the evening's screening. In French with English subtitles; screening at the Spy Museum. Cosponsored by the Alliance Française de Washington and Film Movement. Tickets: $10. Visit www.spymuseum.org
- 29 October 2016 - The Hague, Netherlands - "Witness to Change:
Intelligence Analysis in a Changing Environment" is topic of the NISA
25th Anniversary Conference
The Netherlands Intelligence Studies Association (NISA) celebrates its
25th anniversary with a two-days conference. Main theme is the strongly
changed environment of the intelligence analyst during these past 25
In other words: the 25th anniversary as a symbol for the revolutionary
changes in the intelligence world with which analysts have to deal; both
external developments (the onset of a multipolar world, asymmetric
conflicts, the information revolution), and internal changes (in
collecting, processing, dissemination, legitimization and supervision).
These developments forced intelligence analysts and organisations to adapt
work processes and methods and techniques. Intelligence analysts still
mostly operate in secret, but the demands of intelligence consumers and
the public have changed over the last 25 years. Social and technological
developments have changed the playing field and the rules of the game for
the intelligence analyst, leading to an enormous growth in (publicly)
available information and means of communication, and demands for more
transparency and accountability. Aim of the conference is to touch on the
consequences of this changed environment, and to look ahead.
Participants are invited to listen to distinguished experts in the field,
and to enter into discussions on various topics relating to intelligence
The Conference will be held at the Nationaal Archief (the National
Archive), Prins Willem Alexanderhof 20, The Hague, the Netherlands.
The conference program may be viewed here as a PDF.
Conference Fee: Standard Fee: Eur175; Student Fee: Eur80 (proof of status
required). Fee covers registration, lunch and drinks.
To join the Conference Diner on Friday 28 October 2016, an extra fee of
Eur30 is applicable.
To Register: For registration: fill this form. After registration you will receive
further information as regards payment of the conference fee and the
programme. There is a limited number of seats. Registration for the
conference will close on 15 October 2016.
For further information please send an e-mail to email@example.com
Weekly Intelligence Notes (WINs) are commentaries on
Intelligence and related national security matters, based on open media
sources, selected, interpreted, edited and produced for non-profit
educational uses by members and WIN subscribers.
REMOVAL INSTRUCTIONS: We do not wish to add
clutter to inboxes. To discontinue receiving the WINs:
a) IF YOU ARE A MEMBER - click here: UNSUBSCRIBE and supply your full name and email
address where you receive the WINs. Click SEND, you will be removed from
list. If this link doesn't open a blank email, create one on your
own and send to firstname.lastname@example.org
with the words: REMOVE FROM WINs as the subject, and provide your
full name and email address where you are currently receiving them.
b) IF YOU ARE NOT A MEMBER, and you
received this message, someone forwarded this newsletter to you [contrary
to AFIO policies]. Forward to email@example.com
the entire WIN or message you received and we will remove the sender from
our membership and distribution lists. The problem will be solved for both
CONTENTS of this WIN [HTML version recipients - Click
title to jump to story or section, Click Article Title to return to
Contents. This feature does not work for Plaintext Edition or for some AOL
recipients]. If you wish to change to HTML format, let us know at firstname.lastname@example.org. The HTML feature also does not work
for those who access their e-mail using web mail...however NON-HTML
recipients may view the latest edition each week in HTML at this link: https://www.afio.com/pages/currentwin.htm
WINs are protected by copyright laws and intellectual property laws, and
may not be reproduced or re-sent without specific permission from the
Producer. Opinions expressed in the WINs are solely those of the editor's)
or author's) listed with each article. AFIO Members Support the AFIO
Mission - sponsor new members! CHECK THE AFIO WEBSITE at www.afio.com for back issues of the WINs,
information about AFIO, conference agenda and registrations materials, and
membership applications and much more!
(c) 2000, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016. Please note AFIO's new address:
AFIO, 7700 Leesburg Pike Suite 324, Falls Church, Virginia 22043. Voice:
(703) 790-0320; Fax: (703) 991-1278; Email: email@example.com
Click here to return