AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #37-16 dated 20 September 2016

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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY - Snowden, Propaganda, Stone

Section IV - Events

Upcoming AFIO Events

Other Upcoming Events

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events 

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors:  mh, gh, mk, rd, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.
CAVEATS: IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse research inquiries, career announcements, or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding, and should verify the source independently before supplying any resume, career data, or personal information.]
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Website of the week: Coastal Carolina University

CIB, EIA, publish first issue of The Intelligence Review

The CIB [Chanticleer Intelligence Brief (www.cibrief.org)] has released the first issue of The Intelligence Review, a compendium of analytical forecasts by CIB analysts, on pressing global security questions. The volume is the product of a year-long collaboration between the CIB and the European Intelligence Academy (EIA), a network of intelligence studies scholars, specialists and students, who are dedicated to promoting international collaboration in intelligence scholarship and research.

In this volume, eleven CIB analysts tackle timely questions confronting intelligence today. Topics range from the price of oil to political stability in Venezuela, from the territorial cohesion of Iraq to the future of the Islamic State, and many other subjects that feature daily in news headlines. CIB analysts propose carefully crafted and informed forecasts outlining future developments in some of the world's unpredictable hot spots.

The Intelligence Review is edited by CIB Faculty Mentor Dr Joseph Fitsanakis and includes a foreword by EIA Director Dr John Nomikos.
To read the first issue of The Intelligence Review, click here. To order printed copies, contact CIB.


The Perfect End of Year Gift for a colleague, family member, or self
from the International Spy Museum
Secret Ops Of The CIA in Art, in large, double-sized 2017 Wall Calendar

From the International Spy Museum store...

The men and women of the CIA, and their allied foreign national agents, courageously carry out their missions in hostile environments around the globe. From the frozen killing grounds of the Korean War to the bloody siege at Dien Bien Phu, to missions above the Arctic Circle and on the bottom of the Pacific Ocean, and in the capitals and danger zones around the world, these unsung heroes perform countless land, sea and air missions, usually without public knowledge or gratitude. This collection of original paintings, initially funded by private citizens and corporations depicts actual declassified CIA missions.
Each historical depiction was exhaustively researched and recreated by world class military and aviation artists such as Dru Blair, James Dietz, Jeff Bass, Keith Woodcock, Stuart Brown, Gareth Hector and others. Unique calendar bonus features include photos of points of interest at the headquarters, artist sketches and color studies, declassified documents, photographs of mission participants and more. SECRET OPS OF THE CIA is a history book disguised as a wall calendar. The artwork is on permanent display at the CIA headquarters. Now have them on your walls. Museum Store code: 190778

$26 for each double-sized wall calendar. Order here.
     

Cyber Ready™ 2016

Tuesday, 18 October 2016, 11:30 am - 2 pm

The AFIO Florida Suncoast Chapter hosts conference and luncheon on
Cyber Ready 2016 - a conference on
The Impact of Cybercrime

at MacDill AFB, FL

The Florida Suncoast AFIO Chapter's October luncheon meeting is the centerpiece of Cyber Ready™ 2016, a conference observing National Cyber Security Awareness Month: The Impact of Cybercrime. The Florida Suncoast AFIO Chapter is proud to join the MITRE Corporation, the Tampa Bay Innovation Center, the Florida Chamber and the National Cyber Partnership in sponsoring this important event. In addition to the luncheon, you're invited to register for the entire Cybersecurity Conference (including lunch and dinner) as well as the Golf Outing and Barbecue Dinner on Monday afternoon, October 17. The luncheon keynote speaker is Dr. Mark Maybury, Vice President and Chief Security Officer, The MITRE Corporation. The dinner keynote speaker is R. "Montana" Williams, COO & cyber evangelist for the Cyber World Institute (CWI), adjunct instructor at California State University-San Bernardino, former Senior Manager - Cyber Practices for ISACA and former Chief - Cybersecurity Education & Awareness Branch at the Department of Homeland Security. Seating is limited. Current program PDF is here.
More information and registration is available here.

RSVP Deadline: 3 October, because of large attendance expected. Time also needed to allow Base Security to clear all applicants.
Luncheon registration procedures have changed: the chapter has implemented an online registration system. Register here. A registration confirmation must be received by you by email. Print the registration confirmation and bring it with you to the meeting to avoid delays. You may register a group of individuals. If paying online (PayPal or credit card), pay for all members of your group. If paying at the door, we suggest you arrive as a group to avoid delays. The members of the group you register may pay individually at the door, but you remain responsible for payment since you are guaranteeing attendance. • We strongly suggest you register and pay in advance. You may face long lines and significant delays at check-in - and we are unable to hold luncheon start. • You will need to present photo ID (and valid student ID if claiming the student discount) at check-in to pick up your event badge. You can facilitate your check-in by also presenting the registration confirmation you received by email. Only those with an event badge will be admitted. • If you cannot register online, send an email to Michael Shapiro or call him at (813) 832-1164. As the event deadline approaches, space might no longer be avaiable, so do not delay. This is a major undertaking and a significant accomplishment for our Chapter. Thank you in advance for your patience and your helping make this go smoothly! We're looking forward to seeing you at the meeting.
Timing: 12:15 PM, with check-in/socializing starting at 11:30 AM.
Location: MacDill AFB Surf's Edge Club, 7315 Bayshore Boulevard, MacDill AFB, FL 33621
RSVP and more conference info is here. All questions to Michael Shapiro or call him at (813) 832-1164.
Chapter newsletter on this issue may be accessed here.


View video from your desk using this link

"Looking Over The Horizon"
CIA's Third Conference on The Ethos & Profession of Intelligence
was held Tuesday, 20 September 2016
at George Washington University, Lisner Auditorium, Washington

The conference included the following panelists: Speakers: David S. Cohen, (Moderator) Deputy Director, CIA; Carrie Cordero, Founder, The Law Office of Carrie Cordero; Counsel to the Assistant Attorney General for National Security (former) Ben Huebner Privacy and Civil Liberties Officer, CIA; Dan Klaidman, Deputy Editor, Yahoo News; Jason Leopold, Investigative Reporter, VICE News. Speakers: Christopher Kojm, (Moderator), Visiting Professor, Practice of International Affairs, GW; Chairmain, National Intelligence Council (former); Susan Gordon, Deputy Director, National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency; Nancy Jackson, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, US Department of State; Carla Koppell, Vice President Applied Conflict Transformation, US Institute of Peace. Speakers: Frank Cilluffo, (Moderator), Associate Vice President, GW; Director, Center for Cyber and Homeland Security, GW; Chris Darby, President and CEO, In-Q-Tel; Andrew P. Hallman, Deputy Director, Digital Innovation, CIA; Chris Inglis, Distinguished Visiting Professor in Cyber Security Studies, US Naval Academy; Deputy Director, NSA (former); Dr. Jason Matheny, Director, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity; Matt Olsen, President of Consulting, IronNet; Director, National Counterterrorism Center (former). Speakers: John Brennan, (Moderator) Director, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA); Mohammad Masoom Stanekzai, Defense Minister of Afghanistan (acting); Nick Warner, Director-General, Australian Secret Intelligence Service; Alex Younger, Chief, British Secret Intelligence Service. Speakers: Frank Sesno, (Moderator) Director of the School of Media and Public Affairs, GW; Peter Clement, Deputy Assistant Director, Europe and Eurasia Mission Center, CIA; John McLaughlin, Distinguished Practitioner in Residence, Johns Hopkins University; Acting Director, CIA (former); Dennis Wilder, Senior Fellow and Assistant Professor, Georgetown University.
Video of panels may be viewed at this link.
All GW Center for Cyber and Homeland Security videos are here.


Book of the Week:

The Man with the Poison Gun - Plokhy

The Man with the Poison Gun: A Cold War Spy Story
by Serhii Plokhy

(Basic Books; December 6, 2016; $28 hardcover)

A nonfiction thriller about a KGB assassin whose defection to the West changed the face of Cold War espionage, complete with exploding parcels, elaborately staged coverups, double agents, and double crosses. Provides insight into Cold War espionage.

In the fall of 1961, KGB assassin Bogdan Stashinsky defected to West Germany. After spilling his secrets to the CIA, Stashinsky was put on trial in a highly publicized trial. The publicity stirred up by the Stashinsky case forced the KGB to change its modus operandi abroad and ended the career of Aleksandr Shelepin, an ambitious and dangerous Soviet leader. Stashinsky's testimony, implicating the Kremlin rulers in political assassinations carried out abroad, shook international politics and inspired films, plays, and books - including Ian Fleming's last James Bond novel, The Man with the Golden Gun.

"A gripping portrait of an assassin and his journey from recruitment to mission to defection, ...exhumes one of the Cold War's stranger episodes - the KGB's murder of Ukrainian émigrés with a spray gun that squirted poison. ...tells an evocative and informative tale, based on original archival research, that immerses us in the tradecraft of Soviet spies operating in Western Europe." - Peter Finn, co-author of The Zhivago Affair.

"Serhii Plokhy, one of the most brilliant historians of our era, has retraced the steps of a murderer and this gripping book is the result. ...will appeal equally to students of history and lovers of spy thrillers." - Mary Elise Sarotte, author of The Collapse: The Accidental Opening of the Berlin Wall

"This book often reads like an Ian Fleming spy novel, but it is actually about real events that occurred during the tensest phase of the Cold War in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Plokhy provides a riveting account of the exploits of a Soviet assassin who used poison gas to kill exiled opponents of the Soviet regime amid East-West preparations for all-out war. Plokhy's meticulously researched book sheds valuable light on the Soviet regime's continued use of political assassinations in foreign countries long after the death of Joseph Stalin. A wonderful read for scholars and spy novel fans alike." - Mark Kramer, Director of Cold War Studies, Harvard University

Serhii Plokhy is Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard and director of the university's Ukrainian Research Institute.

The book may be ordered here.


Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

House Intelligence Committee Urges No Pardon for Edward Snowden.  Lawmakers on the House Intelligence Committee unanimously signed a letter to President Obama on Thursday asking him not to pardon Edward J. Snowden, the former intelligence contractor who leaked troves of information about National Security Agency surveillance and data collection in 2013.

"We urge you not to pardon Edward Snowden, who perpetrated the largest and most damaging public disclosure of classified information in our nation's history," the bipartisan letter said. "If Mr. Snowden returns from Russia, where he fled in 2013, the US government must hold him accountable for his actions."

The committee also said it had completed a 36-page report summarizing the results of its multiyear investigation into the leaks and their effect. The report was classified, but the panel released a three-page executive summary that portrayed Mr. Snowden as a "serial exaggerator and fabricator" who is "not a whistle-blower."

"Snowden caused tremendous damage to national security, and the vast majority of the documents he stole have nothing to do with programs impacting individual privacy interests - they instead pertain to military, defense and intelligence programs of great interest to America's adversaries," the report said.  [Read more:  Savage/NYTimes/15September2016] Three page summary report may be read here. Also see items under Context section of this edition of the Weekly Notes.

Intelligence Community Tackles Domestic Mission: Diversifying.  Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, the first African-American director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, has the weight of the country's safety on his shoulders - and then some.

"From an intelligence mission standpoint, I have five no-fail missions that represent some of our greatest challenges around the world," Stewart said in Washington on Thursday, referring to the core functions of his agency.

"On a personal level, I have one no-fail mission," he continued. "I cannot fail. And I don't talk about that a whole lot, but there's tremendous pressure to be the first and hope that you're not the last."

The crowd at the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation's annual conference murmured in understanding.  [Read more:  Topan/CNN/16September2016]

9/11 Drove Change in Intelligence Community, NSA Chief Says.  The 9/11 attacks drove "fundamental change" in the way the US government uses and shares intelligence, the director of the National Security Agency said during a panel discussion yesterday.

Navy Adm. Michael S. Rogers, who also commands US Cyber Command and is chief of the Central Security Service, said the government learned the lessons of 9/11 and has integrated the military, intelligence community and law enforcement in ways that well-developed allies have not.

"Never underestimate the ability of a trauma - in the shape of 9/11 - to drive fundamental change in hierarchical organizations that are usually resistant to change," Rogers told James Andrew Lewis, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' strategic technologies program. "We have to be honest with ourselves: It took the pain of 9/11 to drive fundamental change for us."

In the 15 years since the 9/11 attacks, the government has broken down the walls between intelligence, law enforcement and counterintelligence, the admiral said.  [Read more:  Garamone/DODNews/15September2016]

Cyber Attack Threats to Be Focus of Australia's Intelligence Agencies Review.  The rising threat posed by cyber attacks is set to be the focus of a review of Australia's intelligence agencies.

The nation's six intelligence agencies will be subject to the probe, which the Government has said will ensure they can appropriately respond to security threats.

The agencies involved include ASIS (Australian Secret Intelligence Service), ASIO (Australian Secret Intelligence Organisation) and the Australian Signals Directorate.

National security officials said attacks on sensitive Australian computer networks were occurring on a daily basis, and were being carried out by hackers sponsored by foreign powers - especially China.  [Read more:  Edwards/ABC/18September2016]

Obama to Be Urged to Split Cyberwar Command From NSA.  The Pentagon and intelligence community are expected to recommend soon to President Obama that he break up the joint leadership of the National Security Agency and US Cyber Command to create two distinct forces­ for electronic espionage and cyberwarfare.

The potential move is driven by a sense that the two missions are fundamentally different, that the nation's cyberspies and military hackers should not be competing to use the same networks, and that the job of leading both organizations is too big for one person.

Obama was on the verge of ending the "dual-hat" leadership in late 2013 but was persuaded to hold off when senior officials, including then-NSA Director Keith B. Alexander, argued against it on the grounds that the two organizations needed one leader to ensure that the NSA did not withhold resources from Cyber­Com.

Three years later, Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper Jr. are pressing for the split, with Carter seeking to build Cyber Command into a full-fledged fighting force that has its own network accesses to conduct attacks. Clapper, officials said, supports the idea in part to reduce tension over which force gets to use the networks - the spies or the war­fighters.  [Read more:  Nakashima/WashingtonPost/13September2016]

FBI Trying to Build Legal Cases Against Russian Hackers.  The Federal Bureau of Investigation is intensifying efforts to find enough evidence to enable the Justice Department to indict some of the Russians that US intelligence agencies have concluded are hacking into American political parties and figures, US law enforcement and intelligence officials said on Thursday.

Building legal cases is difficult, largely because the best evidence against foreign hackers is often highly classified, they said. Still, some White House and State Department officials think legal action is the best way to respond to what they said are growing Russian attempts to disrupt and discredit the November elections, without sparking an open confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"Doing nothing is not an option, because that would telegraph weakness and just encourage the Russians to do more meddling, but retaliating in kind carries substantial risks," said one US official involved in the administration's deliberations.

Russia has denied it sponsors or encourages any hacking activity.  [Read more:  Hosenball&Menn/Reuters/15September2016].

Israel Suffers Serious Blow to Intelligence Gathering Abilities.  Unless operators succeed in stabilizing the systems onboard the advanced Ofek-11 military satellite, launched on Tuesday from Palmahim Air Base, the defense establishment faces a real disappointment in its hopes to move forward Israel's space-based intelligence capabilities.

Little is known about the Ofek-11 satellite, other than the fact that it carries a payload of an advanced Elbit Systems-made electro-optic camera, and has a sophisticated propulsion system made by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems, which runs on hydrazine fuel.

The satellite orbits the Earth every 90 minutes, and would have given IDF Military Intelligence, as well as other defense agencies, advanced visual intelligence abilities, enabling Israel to keep close tabs on developments in areas controlled by its enemies near and far.

There can be no sugarcoating the fact that the Defense Ministry and the satellite's maker, Israel Aerospace Industries, are worried.  [Read more:  JPost/19September2016]

Army Resumes ICITE Integration After DoD Hold up.  After years of delay the Army will begin catching up with the intelligence community on common desktop environments.

Next year, the Army will begin a small common desktop environment (DTE) adoption pilot in 2017 that will create momentum for a larger movement in 2018 and 2019, said Annette Redmond, director of Army Intelligence Community Information Management during a Sept. 16 speech.

"I am committed to getting the National Capital Region footprint that I have [on DTE], which is about 5,000 there," Redmond said during an AFCEA event in Vienna, Virginia.

DTE is a part of the intelligence community's push for a more integrated IT infrastructure between the intelligence agencies and services.  [Read more:  Maucione/FederalNewsRadio/16September2016]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

A Former NSA Deputy Director Weighs in on SnowdenTwo very different narratives on the former National Security Agency contractor unfolded this week. Both proved that the debate over whether Edward Snowden is a traitor or a patriot is in no danger of running out of steam.

First, on Thursday, the House Intelligence Committee wrapped up a two-year investigation of Snowden. An unclassified summary of the 36-page report pronounces him a "a serial exaggerator and fabricator" who "caused tremendous damage to national security."

The week's other narrative comes, unsurprisingly, from Hollywood director Oliver Stone. His new movie Snowden opened nationwide this weekend and paints the exiled Snowden as a hero.

Conspicuously absent from the debate is the NSA itself. The agency declined NPR's request for an interview reacting to the movie. But Chris Inglis, former deputy director, agreed to see it and share his thoughts.  [Read more:  Kelly/NPR/17September2016]

As Russia Reasserts Itself, US Intelligence Agencies Focus Anew on the Kremlin.  US intelligence agencies are expanding spying operations against Russia on a greater scale than at any time since the end of the Cold War, US officials said.

The mobilization involves clandestine CIA operatives, National Security Agency cyberespionage capabilities, satellite systems and other intelligence assets, officials said, describing a shift in resources across spy services that had previously diverted attention from Russia to focus on terrorist threats and US war zones.

US officials said the moves are part of an effort to rebuild US intelligence capabilities that had continued to atrophy even as Russia sought to reassert itself as a global power. Over the past two years, officials said, the United States was caught flat-footed by Moscow's aggression, including its annexation of Crimea, its intervention in the war in Syria and its suspected role in hacking operations against the United States and Europe.

US spy agencies "are playing catch-up big time" with Russia, a senior US intelligence official said. Terrorism remains the top concern for American intelligence services, the official said, but recent directives from the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) have moved Russia up the list of intelligence priorities for the first time since the Soviet Union's collapse.  [Read more:  Miller/WashingtonPost/14September2016]

KGB 2.0? Report Says Kremlin Plan Afoot for Major Security-Service Shakeup.  Russia plans to create a super security agency called the Ministry of State Security (MGB), the name once given to Josef Stalin's Soviet spy apparatus before it was renamed the KGB after his death, Kommersant newspaper reports.

The business daily's September 19 story is based on anonymous sources and could not be independently verified. The report has been neither confirmed nor denied officially, and President Vladimir Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has declined to comment.

Speaking to RFE/RL, two leading experts on Russia's security services and a former KGB lieutenant colonel now in the opposition said variously that the reform was "entirely possible," "certainly plausible," and "very likely."

"I think this is one of the projects that appear to be on the president's table, because in principle the idea of some kind of enlargement of the power agencies has been coming up recently," said Andrei Soldatov, the editor and founder of the investigative website Agentura.ru.  [Read more:  Balmforth/RadioFreeEurope/19September2016]

A Peek Into French Signals Intelligence.  Something remarkable happened a few months ago. Bernard Barbier, the former head of signals intelligence (SIGINT) between 2006 and 2014 at France's foreign intelligence agency (DGSE), gave a speech at one of France's top engineering schools in which he reflected on his career and imparted some of his wisdom to students. He also said some things that he probably shouldn't have, like confirming that France was behind the Animal Farm advanced persistent threat, commenting on the SIGINT capabilities of European allies, and reacting to the revelation that the US National Security Agency (NSA) had compromised the networks of the French presidency.

Last week, Barbier's speech surfaced on YouTube but was quickly taken down. However, it was up long enough for French daily Le Monde to transcribe some of the highlights. Here they are, paraphrased and translated from the original French.  [Read more:  Grigsby/DefenseOne/15September2016]

The Man in Charge of Stopping the Next Snowden.  William Evanina has never met Edward Snowden, but the two are intimately bound. As National Counterintelligence Executive - essentially the man in charge of American counterintelligence - Evanina is tasked with fixing the damage that leaks like Snowden's have done to the US intelligence community, and preventing new ones.

In the summer of 2013, Evanina was assistant special agent in charge of the FBI's Washington, DC, field office. When the Snowden breach was announced, he was put on the case.

"We worked from the FBI perspective: identifying him, what he's about, trying to identify and drive criminal charges," said Evania. Snowden was soon charged with violating the Espionage Act. (The former NSA contractor, who currently resides in Russia, is seeking a pardon from the Obama administration.)

In June 2014, after a stint working counterespionage with the CIA, Evanina came to direct the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, or NCSC, which is part of the Office of National Intelligence. He found the intelligence community scrambling to understand what had just happened, how Snowden's data dump might affect everything from agents in the field to national-level operations. "At the time, my predecessor was busy working on 'Oh my God, what's out there, what's been released, what's been touched,'" he said.  [Read more:  Tucker/DefenseOne/16September2016]
 

Section III - COMMENTARY

No Pardon for Edward Snowden.  Edward Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor who blew the cover off the federal government's electronic surveillance programs three years ago, has his admirers. After the inevitably celebratory Oliver Stone film about him appears this weekend, he may have more. Whether Mr. Snowden deserves a presidential pardon, as human rights organizations are demanding in a new national campaign timed to coincide with the film, is a complicated question, however, to which President Obama's answer should continue to be "no."

Mr. Snowden's defenders don't deny that he broke the law - not to mention oaths and contractual obligations - when he copied and kept 1.5 million classified documents. They argue, rather, that Mr. Snowden's noble purposes, and the policy changes his "whistle-blowing" prompted, justified his actions. Specifically, he made the documents public through journalists, including reporters working for The Post, enabling the American public to learn for the first time that the NSA was collecting domestic telephone "metadata" - information about the time of a call and the parties to it, but not its content - en masse with no case-by-case court approval. The program was a stretch, if not an outright violation, of federal surveillance law, and posed risks to privacy. Congress and the president eventually responded with corrective legislation. It's fair to say we owe these necessary reforms to Mr. Snowden.

The complication is that Mr. Snowden did more than that. He also pilfered, and leaked, information about a separate overseas NSA Internet-monitoring program, PRISM, that was both clearly legal and not clearly threatening to privacy. (It was also not permanent; the law authorizing it expires next year.) Worse - far worse - he also leaked details of basically defensible international intelligence operations: cooperation with Scandinavian services against Russia; spying on the wife of an Osama bin Laden associate; and certain offensive cyber operations in China. No specific harm, actual or attempted, to any individual American was ever shown to have resulted from the NSA telephone metadata program Mr. Snowden brought to light. In contrast, his revelations about the agency's international operations disrupted lawful intelligence-gathering, causing possibly "tremendous damage" to national security, according to a unanimous, bipartisan report by the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. What higher cause did that serve?  [Read more:  WashingtonPost/17September2016]

Why President Obama Won't, and Shouldn't, Pardon Snowden.  A "pardon Snowden" campaign was launched Wednesday in conjunction with the Snowden film. Snowden himself made the "moral case" for why he should be pardoned, and Tim Edgar made a much more powerful case. I remain unconvinced. I don't think the president will, or should, pardon Snowden.

I say this even though I agree with Tim about many of the upsides to Snowden's theft and leak of documents from NSA databases. On the third anniversary of the Snowden disclosures, I wrote about how, despite their many costs, the disclosures strengthened the intelligence community. They forced the NSA to be more transparent and to better explain itself, demonstrated that the NSA was acting with the full knowledge and support of three branches, resulted in its authorities being strengthened and its collection practices barely narrowed (and in some respects expanded), and overall enhanced its domestic legitimacy going forward. I was not kidding when I said that "[t]hese are but some of the public services for which the US government has Snowden to thank.” This was not a new theme with me. I have made similar points for years.

But to say that the intelligence community benefited from the Snowden leaks is not to say that the president should pardon Snowden, for the price of the benefits was enormously high in terms of lost intelligence and lost investments in intelligence mechanisms and operations, among other things. Many Snowden supporters pretend that these costs are zero because the government, understandably, has not documented them. But it is naďve or disingenuous to think that the damage to US intelligence operations was anything but enormous. (To his credit, Tim acknowledges that "Snowden's actions caused great damage to national security.") Much remains unknown regarding the extent of the damage (because the intelligence community cannot publicly say much beyond generalities) and the specifics of Snowden's actions and motivations (because DOJ is preserving a criminal prosecution). I imagine we would learn considerably more information - from both sides, but especially from the government - if a criminal trial ever took place. And indeed it is hard for the public to even assess the case for a pardon until we know the full extent of Snowden's crimes and the harms they caused. But I have no doubt that the harms from his actions were very significant.

Another difficulty in determining whether a pardon is warranted for Snowden's crimes is that the proper criteria for a pardon are elusive.  [Read more:  Goldsmith/ARSTechnica/17September2016]

The Leaky Myths of Snowden - Oliver Stone's new movie about Edward Snowden is a fairy tale and a bore - from Slate.

Oliver Stone's Snowden is a bad movie, stuffed with myth, short on drama. Stone has always been a tendentious writer but he was once a terrific director. JFK ranks among the most exasperating movies of all time for portraying Jim Garrison, one of the battier Kennedy-assassination conspiracy-mongers, as a truth-telling hero. But it was still rollicking, spooky fun - so crazy entertaining, I could almost excuse its crazy script. In Snowden, Stone has another self-styled hero on his hands, but this time he dispenses with the high-flying style and instead spends two hours shrouding his protagonist with the aura of a holy martyr.

The story, as Stone tells it, matches the portrait put forth by Edward Snowden, his lawyers, and his celebrators for some time: A patriotic young man goes to work for the CIA, then the NSA. Gradually disillusioned by what he sees, he smuggles out thousands of documents that reveal the NSA's vast scale of domestic surveillance. He flees to Hong Kong, where he gives the material to a pair of trusted, rebellious reporters, so the American people will know what's being done in their name at the price of their liberty. If that's all there were to this tale, I would chime in with those who have called on President Obama to pardon Snowden, or at least reduce his sentence, for (as the New York Times editorialized in early 2014) the "great service" he has done his country. But, as I've noted in a couple of columns, that's not all there is, and Stone's (and the Times editorial's) omissions go far beyond dramatic license to distort, even falsify, the picture. [Read more: Kaplan/Slate/16September2016]


Section IV - Events

AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

Thursday, September 22, 2016 6:30 pm - Bloomfield Hills, MI - AFIO Johnny Michael Spann Memorial Chapter, Michigan host author and historian Mark Bando on his collection of WWII Propaganda Leaflets.

Mark Bando author and historian specializes in the history of the 101st Airborne and the 2nd Armored Division. He has published eight previous books on WWII of which six are about the 101st, one about the 2d Armored Division and one on the Waffen-SS.  He began interviewing WWII veterans in the late 1960s and interviewed a total of close to 1500, including over 1000 from the 101st Airborne and 300 from the 2nd Armored Division.  Mark is a third generation Japanese American his parents met at the relocation camp in Topaz, Utah.  He grew up in Detroit attending Cass Tech High School and Wayne State University.  He retired from the Detroit Police Department after 25 years of service.  In 2005 he took parachute training with the WWII Airborne Demonstration Team and made 15 jumps with them, the last in 2008 from a C47 at the Thunder Over Michigan air show at Willow Run.  Mark have been to Afghanistan twice as an embedded journalist with the 101st Airborne, in 2008 and 2010 and is currently completing a book on that subject.  Mark's only son, 32 year old Christopher A. Leinonen was one of the 49 homicide  victims at the Pulse nightclub massacre in Orlando this June.
Mr. Bando's presentation on WWII Propaganda Leaflets, comes from artifacts collected over the past 50 years.
RSVP to: Charles Kirkpatrick, chapter secretary, secretary@afiomichigan.org or visit their website here.

Tuesday, 18 October 2016, 11:30 am - 2 pm - MacDill AFB, FL - The AFIO Florida Suncoast Chapter hosts meeting on Cyber Ready 2016 - a special conference on The Impact of Cybercrime.

The Florida Suncoast AFIO Chapter luncheon is the centerpiece of Cyber Ready™ 2016, a conference observing National Cyber Security Awareness Month: The Impact of Cybercrime.
The chapter joins the MITRE Corporation, the Tampa Bay Innovation Center, the Florida Chamber and the National Cyber Partnership in co-sponsoring the event. In addition to the luncheon, members are invited to register for the entire Cybersecurity Conference (including lunch and dinner) as well as the Golf Outing and Barbecue Dinner being held the day before, Monday afternoon, October 17.
RSVP Deadline: 3 October, because of large attendance expected. Time also needed to allow Base Security to clear all applicants.
Luncheon registration procedures have changed: the chapter has implemented an online registration system. Register here. A registration confirmation must be received by you by email. Print the registration confirmation and bring it with you to the meeting to avoid delays. You may register a group of individuals. If paying online (PayPal or credit card), pay for all members of your group. If paying at the door, we suggest you arrive as a group to avoid delays. The members of the group you register may pay individually at the door, but you remain responsible for payment since you are guaranteeing attendance. • We strongly suggest you register and pay in advance. You may face long lines and significant delays at check-in - and we are unable to hold luncheon start. • You will need to present photo ID (and valid student ID if claiming the student discount) at check-in to pick up your event badge. You can facilitate your check-in by also presenting the registration confirmation you received by email. Only those with an event badge will be admitted. • If you cannot register online, send an email to Michael Shapiro or call him at (813) 832-1164. As the event deadline approaches, space might no longer be avaiable, so do not delay. This is a major undertaking and a significant accomplishment for our Chapter. Thank you in advance for your patience and your helping make this go smoothly! We're looking forward to seeing you at the meeting.
Timing: 12:15 PM, with check-in/socializing starting at 11:30 AM.
Location: MacDill AFB Surf's Edge Club, 7315 Bayshore Boulevard, MacDill AFB, FL 33621
Current program PDF is here.
More information and registration is available here.

Friday, 28 October 2016, 11am - 2 pm - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Fall Luncheon features CIA's Director of Talent, Glenn A. Gaffney, (confirmed) and author/journalist James Kitfield (invited). "Terrorism and other concerns the country faces, and the special talent and skills it will require."

Glenn Gaffney, Director of Talent at CIA will address the current and future needs and skills the agency is seeking. Gaffney has a broad, career-long exposure to those needs. Prior to his current assignment, Gaffney served as the CIA's Director for Science and Technology; and in 2008 was Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Collection. Mr. Gaffney began his career with CIA in 1986 as a technical analyst in the Directorate of Intelligence working on cross-directorate clandestine technical collection operations to address critical technical intelligence gaps. In 1996, Mr. Gaffney served as part of a team which laid the foundation for creation of the Information Operations Center (has different name today), the Agency's lead organization for cyber operations.

The morning speaker is James Kitfield, (invited), author of the forthcoming book: Twilight Warriors: The Soldiers, Spies, and Special Agents Who Are Revolutionizing the American Way of War. Kitfield was a senior correspondent for National Journal and is a three-time winner of the Gerald R. Ford Prize for Distinguished Reporting on National Defense. He is a a senior fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.

"A compelling chronological examination of the new intelligence-driven, multiagency
counterterrorism model the U.S. military now uses to meet the 'Age of Superterrorism' … Kitfield gets inside the U.S. military 'brotherhood' to produce an engaging and chilling report." -- Kirkus Reviews
"Twilight Warriors provides a uniquely intimate and timely window into the special
operations, intelligence and law enforcement counterterrorism efforts of the past two decades. Compelling and insightful, it is the most up-to-date account available of the ongoing war on terrorism. James Kitfield's gripping portraits of the key figures leading this struggle makes this book required reading for anyone wishing to understand the threat that terrorism continues to pose - and what we are doing to defeat it." -- Bruce Hoffman, Professor & Director, Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University.

Register now at this link. This will be AFIO's final luncheon in 2016.

 

Thursday, 10 November 2016, 11:30am - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Andre LeGallo Chapter hosts author and journalist, Peter Robinson on The Cambridge Spies

Journalist/author Peter Robinson discusses the Cambridge Spies at this AFIO San Francisco Chapter event. Robinson explores the impact of Kim Philby, Donald Maclean, Guy Burgess, Anthony Blunt and others on American-British relations.
Where: United Irish Cultural Center, 2700 45th Ave between Sloat and Wawona, San Francisco, CA 94116.
Fee: Members $25; Non-Member guests $35. Non-host cocktails at 11:30AM; meeting starts promptly at noon.
Reservation and pre-payment is required before October 31, 2016. RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi, Board Secretary, AFIO SF Chapter at afiosf@aol.com


Other Upcoming Events

Wednesday, 21 September 2016, noon - Washington, DC - True Believer: Stalin's Last American Spy - at the International Spy Museum

Noel Field betrayed his country and crushed his family. Once a well-meaning and privileged American, Field spied for Stalin during the 1930s and '40s. Used as a pawn in Stalin's sinister master strategy, he was ultimately kidnapped and tortured by the KGB and forced to testify against his own Communist comrades. Join journalist Kati Marton, author of True Believer, as she explains how this Ivy League-educated, US State Department employee, deeply rooted in American culture and history, became a hardcore Stalinist. With a reporter's eye for detail and a historian's grasp of the cataclysmic events of the twentieth century, Marton will discuss how she uncovered Field's quest for a life of meaning that went horribly wrong through her unprecedented access to Field family correspondence, Soviet Secret Police records, and reporting on key players including Alger Hiss, CIA Director Allen Dulles, World War II spy master "Wild Bill" Donovan, and Josef Stalin himself. No registration is required. Tickets: FREE. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 5 October 2016, 7-10pm - Washington, DC - Dinner with a Spy: An Evening with Naveed Jamali - at the International Spy Museum

For three nerve-wracking years, Naveed Jamali spied on the United States for the Russians - or so the Russians believed. By trading thumb drives of sensitive technical data for envelopes of cash, he pretended to sell out his own country across noisy restaurant tables and in quiet parking lots. Although he had no formal espionage training, with the help of an initially reluctant FBI duo he ended up at the center of a highly successful counterintelligence operation that targeted Russian espionage in New York City. With Putin's latest moves a frequent headline and political hot topic, Jamili, author of How to Catch a Russian Spy, will share how his unbelievable but true post-college adventure became a real-life US counterintelligence coup and the subject of an upcoming film. Over a quiet restaurant table, International Spy Museum historian Vince Houghton will debrief Jamali about his unlikely espionage exploits and how it feels to have your true story named one of the Washington Post's funniest books of 2015. You will be one of only twenty guests at Rosa Mexicano for this festive four-course dinner including "the best guacamole in the world." Tickets for the general public: $225 (includes four-course modern Mexican dinner with margaritas, sangria, wine, and beer). Visit www.spymuseum.org

Tuesday, 11 October 2016, 6:30pm - Washington, DC - The Lives of Guy Burgess: An Evening with Andrew Lownie - at the International Spy Museum

Perhaps the most complex of the Cambridge Spies, Guy Burgess was an engaging and charming companion to many and an unappealing, utterly ruthless manipulator to others. Recruited by the Soviets as a young man in the 1930s, he rose through academia, the BBC, the Foreign Office, MI5 and MI6, to gain access to thousands of highly sensitive secret documents which he passed to the USSR. Join Andrew Lownie, the author of Stalin's Englishman, formerly the London representative of the Washington-based National Intelligence Study Centre, as he discusses how even Burgess's chaotic personal life of drunken philandering did not stop him from espionage. Lownie interviewed more than a hundred people who knew Burgess personally, many for the first time, and used hitherto secret files to reveal how even under suspicion, Burgess's fabled charm - which had enabled many close personal relationships with influential figures including Churchill - prevented his exposure for many years. Stalin's Englishman, which in Great Britain was a 2015 Book or Biography of the Year in the Times, Guardian, Daily Mail, Spectator and BBC History Magazine, will be available for sale and signing at the event. Tickets for the general public: $10. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 19 October 2016, noon - Washington, DC - Hot Topics Series - Global Terrorism, Espionage and Cybersecurity Monthly Update - at the International Spy Museum

Be the first to learn the latest intelligence news! Join David Major, retired supervisory special agent of the FBI and former director of Counterintelligence and Security Programs at the NSC staff at the White House, for a briefing on the hottest intelligence and security issues, breaches, and penetrations. Presented in partnership with The Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies (CI Centre), these updates will cover worldwide events such as breaking espionage cases and arrest reports, cyber espionage incidents, and terrorist activity. Major uses his expertise to analyze trends and highlight emerging issues of interest to both intelligence and national security professionals and the public. Cases are drawn from the CI Centre's SPYPEDIA®, the most comprehensive source of espionage information in the world, containing events and information that may not be reported by mainstream media outlets. Tickets: FREE. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 19 October 2016, 8 am - 3 pm - Laurel, MD - Paul Goldenberg, John Farmer and Distinguished Panelists address "Combating Domestic Terrorism" at this National Cryptologic Museum Foundation's 18th Annual Symposium and Membership Meeting

This year's NCMF's Annual Symposium looks at "Combating Domestic Terrorism" featuring Paul Goldenberg, CEO, Cardinal Point Strategies, Co-Chair of the DHS Foreign Fighter Task Force and Co-Chair of the DHS Faith-Based Security Council. He will be joined by his associate, John Farmer, Professor of Law and Special Counsel to the President of Rutgers University and former Attorney General of New Jersey in providing their unique insights on their work in Belgium and other parts of Europe following the recent terrorism events there.
We also have an exciting lineup of speakers for the afternoon session which will feature a notable panel of local law enforcement officials who will offer their perspective on protecting Maryland's citizens, property and information in the wake of terrorism and domestic unrest.
Panel Members are: Kemp Ensor, NSA Associate Director of Security and Counterintelligence; Kevin Perkins, FBI Special Agent in Charge, Baltimore Field Office; Col. William Pallozzi, Superintendent, Maryland State Police, and panel moderator Richard C. Schaeffer, President, National Cryptologic Museum Foundation.
Also joining the afternoon discussions will be Ronald Lee, Partner, Arnold & Porter LLP and former NSA General Counsel and Associate Deputy Attorney General of the Department of Justice, speaking on protecting the privacy rights of US citizens in the fight against terrorism.
REGISTRATION and NCMF exhibits open at 0800. A continental breakfast will be available from 0800-0900 and lunch will be served from 1200-1300. Speaker presentations run 0900-1500.
LOCATION: Event will be held at Johns Hopkins University/APL Kossiakoff Center, 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, MD 20723. Once you reach the APL at Johns Hopkins Rd, Turn right on Pond Road, just past the service station. Follow the signs to the Kossiakoff Center parking on the lower lot. The lower level parking lot near the Kossiakoff Center is recommended and a shuttle service will operate from 0745-1530 for your convenience. More granular driving directions are available here.
ALL PRESENTATIONS ARE NON-ATTRIBUTION AND RECORDING DEVICES ARE PROHIBITED.
The fee for NCMF members is $30 and guests $60 (includes a one-year guest membership). Register online at www.cryptologicfoundation.org. Registration closes on Friday, 14 October. Or you may mail-in your registration fee to NCMF, P.O. Box 1682, Fort George G. Meade, MD 20755-9998.

28 - 29 October 2016 - The Hague, Netherlands - "Witness to Change: Intelligence Analysis in a Changing Environment" is topic of the NISA 25th Anniversary Conference

The Netherlands Intelligence Studies Association (NISA) celebrates its 25th anniversary with a two-days conference. Main theme is the strongly changed environment of the intelligence analyst during these past 25 years.
In other words: the 25th anniversary as a symbol for the revolutionary changes in the intelligence world with which analysts have to deal; both external developments (the onset of a multipolar world, asymmetric conflicts, the information revolution), and internal changes (in collecting, processing, dissemination, legitimization and supervision).
These developments forced intelligence analysts and organisations to adapt work processes and methods and techniques. Intelligence analysts still mostly operate in secret, but the demands of intelligence consumers and the public have changed over the last 25 years. Social and technological developments have changed the playing field and the rules of the game for the intelligence analyst, leading to an enormous growth in (publicly) available information and means of communication, and demands for more transparency and accountability. Aim of the conference is to touch on the consequences of this changed environment, and to look ahead.

Participants are invited to listen to distinguished experts in the field, and to enter into discussions on various topics relating to intelligence analysis.

The Conference will be held at the Nationaal Archief (the National Archive), Prins Willem Alexanderhof 20, The Hague, the Netherlands.
The conference program may be viewed here as a PDF.

Conference Fee: Standard Fee: Eur175; Student Fee: Eur80 (proof of status required). Fee covers registration, lunch and drinks.
To join the Conference Diner on Friday 28 October 2016, an extra fee of Eur30 is applicable.

To Register: For registration: fill this form. After registration you will receive further information as regards payment of the conference fee and the programme. There is a limited number of seats. Registration for the conference will close on 15 October 2016.
For further information please send an e-mail to 25yearsnisa@gmail.com


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