AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #41-16 dated 25 October 2016

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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Deaths, Readings, and Events

Deaths

Reading

Upcoming AFIO Events

Other Upcoming Events

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events 

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors:  mh, gh, mk, rd, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.
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Five updated GUIDE articles now online on AFIO's Guide webpage:

Updated - Final version as printed now linked: Why can’t we keep national security secrets? James Bruce, an expert in denial and deception, examines in his article, “Keeping US National Security Secrets: Why is This So Hard?,” the damage done by both spies and leakers, and raises questions as to whether our system of security is outmoded in today’s IT world.

• Updated - Final version as printed now linked: Dr. Robert Clark in his article on protecting intelligence sources and methods tries to explain the confusing maze of classification and compartmentation of sensitive intelligence. He traces the origins of security classification, how it is applied to the various INTs, and the modern compartmentation system.

Updated - Final version as printed now linked: Increasingly the private sector is employing intelligence techniques to support organizational goals and operations. John McGonagle recounts the growth of competitive intelligence, how it is employed, and some of the issues associated with it in the private sector.

Updated - Final version as printed now linked: Since the attacks on 9/11 our traditional definitions of intelligence have evolved. National intelligence now encompasses both foreign and domestic aspects due to the cross border characteristic of modern terrorism. National Intelligence University professor William Spracher addresses some of the issues that have arisen in his article: Homeland Security and Intelligence: Fusing Sometimes Incompatible Missions.

Updated - Final version as printed now linked: Retired CIA officer and SUNY Albany professor James Steiner evaluates the need for education and training of first responders and others in Homeland Security Intelligence and how it can help them with their missions.

     

AFIO's final luncheon of 2016 registration closes Thursday at noon.

Register to hear about...
"The new American way of war,
and the special talent and skills needed from those being hired for it."

AFIO final 2016 Luncheon features

Associate Director of CIA for Talent
Glenn A. Gaffney
,
and
Author/editor/journalist
James Kitfield

Friday, 28 October 2016, 11am - 2 pm
Tysons Corner, VA

James Kitfield Glenn A. Gaffney, CIA
Kitfield
Gaffney

Glenn Gaffney, Associate Director of CIA for Talent, will address the current and future needs and skills the agency is seeking. Gaffney has a broad, career-wide exposure to calibrate those needs. Prior to his current assignment, Gaffney served as the CIA's Director for Science and Technology; and in 2008 was Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Collection. Gaffney began his career with CIA in 1986 as a technical analyst in the Directorate of Intelligence working on cross-directorate clandestine technical collection operations to address critical technical intelligence gaps. In 1996, Mr. Gaffney served as part of a team which laid the foundation for creation of the Information Operations Center (has different name today), the Agency's lead organization for cyber operations.

The morning speaker is James Kitfield, author of the book to be released at this event: Twilight Warriors: The Soldiers, Spies, and Special Agents Who Are Revolutionizing the American Way of War. Kitfield was a senior correspondent for National Journal and is a three-time winner of the Gerald R. Ford Prize for Distinguished Reporting on National Defense. he is a senior fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.

Register now at this link
while space remains.


AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence
Just published. AFIO's 788-page Guide to the Study of Intelligence.
Peter C. Oleson, Editor. View table of contents and names of authors here.
Perfect for professors, students, those considering careers in intelligence, and current/former officers seeking to see what changes are taking place across a wide spectrum of intelligence disciplines.
Eighty-two finely-honed articles by intelligence and academic experts provide succinct reviews and suggested readings on a wide range of historical and current intelligence disciplines to help instructors teach about the subjects that make up the field of intelligence. This includes secondary school teachers of American History, Civics, or current events and undergraduate and graduate professors of History, Political Science, International Relations, Security Studies, and related topics, especially those with no or limited professional experience in the field. In seven parts: Part I - Introduction to the topic; Part II - History of Intelligence; Part III - Intelligence Disciplines, Applications, and Missions; Part IV - Espionage, Counterintelligence, and Covert Action; Part V - Policy, Oversight, and Issues; Part VI - Intelligence Abroad; and Part VII - Miscellany. Useful for those who are former practitioners since most in the IC likely have only a limited knowledge of the very broad field of intelligence, as most spend their careers in one or two agencies and may have focused only on collection or analysis of intelligence or support to those activities. Professors, students, those considering careers in intelligence, and current/former officers seeking to see what changes are taking place across a wide spectrum of intelligence disciplines would also get much from this compact reference work.

AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence helps instructors teach about the large variety of subjects that make up the field of intelligence. This includes secondary school teachers of American History, Civics, or current events and undergraduate and graduate professors of History, Political Science, International Relations, Security Studies, and related topics, especially those with no or limited professional experience in the field. Even those who are former practitioners are likely to have only a limited knowledge of the very broad field of intelligence, as most spend their careers in one or two agencies at most and may have focused only on collection or analysis of intelligence or support to those activities.

$95, includes Fedex shipping to a CONUS (US-based) address. AK, HI, and other US or foreign addresses should contact afio@afio.com to inquire about shipping options.

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Book of the Week:

A Great Place to Have a War: America in Laos and the Birth of a Military CIA
by Joshua Kurlantzick
(Simon & Schuster; January 2017)

The untold story of how America's secret war in Laos in the 1960s and 1970s transformed the CIA from a loose collection of spies into a military operation and a key player in American foreign policy.
In 1960, President Eisenhower was focused on Laos, a tiny Southeast Asian nation few Americans had ever heard of. Washington feared the country would fall to communism, triggering a domino effect in the rest of Southeast Asia. So in January 1961, Eisenhower approved the CIA's Operation Momentum, a plan to create a proxy army of ethnic Hmong to fight communist forces in Laos. While remaining largely hidden from the American public and most of Congress, Momentum became the largest CIA paramilitary operation in the history of the United States. The brutal war, which continued under Presidents Kennedy and Nixon, lasted nearly two decades, killed one-tenth of Laos's total population, left thousands of unexploded bombs in the ground, and changed the nature of the CIA forever.
Joshua Kurlantzick gives us the definitive account of the Laos war and its central characters, including the four key people who led the operation—the CIA operative who came up with the idea, the Hmong general who led the proxy army in the field, the paramilitary specialist who trained the Hmong, and the State Department careerist who took control over the war as it grew.
The Laos war created a CIA that fights with real soldiers and weapons as much as it gathers secrets. Laos became a template for CIA proxy wars all over the world, from Central America in the 1980s to today's war on terrorism, where the CIA has taken control with little oversight. Based on extensive interviews and CIA records only recently declassified, A Great Place to Have a War is a riveting, thought-provoking look at how Operation Momentum changed American foreign policy forever. -- Publishers Weekly
The book may be pre-ordered here.


Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Germany Reforms Its Main Intelligence Service.  Germany's lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, has passed a comprehensive reform of the country's main intelligence service, the BND. The new legislation strengthens government monitoring of intelligence activities while explicitly allowing the BND to carry out certain types of surveillance activities.

The reform comes in the wake of the 2013 revelations by American whistleblower Edward Snowden that a number of national intelligence services, including the BND, had spied on behalf of the US National Security Agency (NSA) and that the NSA had spied on its allies. That prompted the formation of a German parliamentary committee to draft intelligence agency reforms.

The new legislation subjects the BND to monitoring by an "independent panel" of two judges and a federal prosecutor and a "permanent commissioner" from the Interior Ministry. It stipulates that surveillance of international communications networks must be authorized by the Chancellor's Office rather than by the BND itself and explicitly prohibits economic and industrial espionage.

The new laws also provide for better protection for whistleblowers within intelligence services and subjects the BND to annual public hearings instead of private ones, as has been the case.  [Read more:  Chase/DeutscheWelle/21October2016]

Three French Intelligence Officers Killed in Malta Aircraft Crash.  A light aircraft carrying three French intelligence officers crashed shortly after taking off from Malta International Airport on Monday, killing all three and two other French nationals on board, according to French and Maltese officials.

The crash happened around 0530 GMT, the Maltese government said.

The flight was part of a French surveillance operation, launched five months ago, aimed at tracking the illicit trafficking of humans and drugs, the government said. It added the flight was registered with the authorities as a local flight and was due to return to Malta within hours, without landing in third countries.

The crash casts light on a major surveillance and covert military operation France has been running in the region to counter the threat posed by unrest in Libya, a few hundred miles south of Malta. Islamic State has taken control of territory on Libya’s coast, raising fears in Paris that the group could use these bases to mount an attack in Europe. Meanwhile, migrant smuggling rings are still active throughout the country, despite efforts by European governments to crack down on them. [Read more:  Zambano&Dalton/WallStreetJournal/24October2016]

Pentagon Expects Mosul Push to Unlock Trove of ISIS Intelligence.  The Pentagon is sending dozens of additional intelligence analysts to Iraq to pore over a trove of information that is expected to be recovered in the offensive to recapture Mosul from the Islamic State, data that could offer new clues about possible terrorist attacks in Europe.

The analysts will have several immediate priorities: Share with the Iraqi military any information crucial to the unfolding fight in Mosul; pass along insights useful to American officials planning an attack on Raqqa, the Islamic State's de facto capital in eastern Syria; hunt for clues about the location of the group's shadowy leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi; and search for any information about terrorist cells in Europe and any attacks they may be plotting.

Maj. Gen. Gary J. Volesky, the commander of American ground forces in Iraq, has called Mosul the Islamic State's Iraqi "crown jewel." Noting that the militants had been entrenched there for more than two years, he added on Wednesday, "Clearly, there's going to be intelligence that will be able to be exploited."

European intelligence and counterterrorism officials said they were eagerly awaiting data gleaned from computer hard drives, cellphones, recruiting files and other sources after Iraqi forces advance into the city in coming weeks. These officials fear an influx of foreign fighters fleeing the campaigns against Mosul and Raqqa.  [Read more:  Schmitt/NYTimes/22October2016]

NSA Contractor's Alleged Theft 'Breathtaking' in Scope.  The alleged theft of classified documents by a former NSA contractor was "breathtaking" in its scope, federal prosecutors said in a court filing Thursday.

They said Harold T. Martin III, 51, took documents dating from the year he first obtained a security clearance in 1996 and continued until his arrest this year, amassing an archive many times larger than the haul Edward Snowden is suspected of taking from the intelligence agency headquartered at Fort Meade.

Documents that Martin is alleged to have taken detail some of the country's most sensitive intelligence operations. Authorities have not said why he allegedly stole the documents, or whether they believe he planned to do anything with them.

Martin, a Navy veteran who lives in Glen Burnie, was charged in August with stealing government documents. Prosecutors said they anticipate filing more serious charges against him under the Espionage Act.  [Read more:  Duncan/TheBaltimoreSun/20October2016]

Military Warns Chinese Computer Gear Poses Cyber Spy Threat.  The Pentagon's Joint Staff recently warned against using equipment made by China's Lenovo computer manufacturer amid concerns about cyber spying against Pentagon networks, according to defense officials.

A recent internal report produced by the J-2 intelligence directorate stated that cyber security officials are concerned that Lenovo computers and handheld devices could introduce compromised hardware into the Defense Department supply chain, posing cyber espionage risks, said officials familiar with the report. The "supply chain" is how the Pentagon refers to its global network of suppliers that provide key components for weapons and other military systems.

The J-2 report was sent Sept. 28, and also contained a warning that Lenovo was seeking to purchase American information technology companies in a bid to gain access to classified Pentagon and military information networks.

The report warned that use of Lenovo products could facilitate cyber intelligence-gathering against both classified and unclassified - but still sensitive - US military networks.  [Read more:  Gertz/WashingtonFreeBeacon/24October2016]

Yahoo Calls for Greater Transparency From Intelligence Services.  Yahoo is demanding US intelligence services reveal how they monitor online services, after a report said the internet company secretly scanned customer emails.

In a letter to James Clapper, the US director of national intelligence, Yahoo said citizens in a democracy require more information to understand and debate how the US uses legal authorities to obtain private data.

Yahoo said it found itself unable to respond in detail to the accusations in a Reuters article earlier this month, which claimed that the company had secretly built custom software to scan users' incoming emails for specific information requested by US intelligence officials.

Ron Bell, Yahoo's general counsel, urged the director to confirm whether an order "as described in these media reports" was issued and, if so, declassify the order in whole or in part. He wrote that he wanted the office to make a "sufficiently detailed public and contextual comment to clarify the alleged facts and circumstances".  [Read more:  Kuchler/FinancialTimes/19October2016]

Russian Hacker, Wanted by FBI, Is Arrested in Prague, Czechs Say.  A man identified as a Russian hacker suspected of pursuing targets in the United States has been arrested in the Czech Republic, the police announced Tuesday evening.

The suspect was captured in a raid at a hotel in central Prague on Oct. 5, about 12 hours after the authorities heard that he was in the country, where he drove around in a luxury car with his girlfriend, according to the police. The man did not resist arrest, but he had medical problems and was briefly hospitalized, the police said in a statement.

David Schön, a police spokesman, said on Wednesday that the arrest of the man, whose name has not been released, was not announced immediately "for tactical reasons."

The police statement said that "the man was a Russian citizen suspected of hacking attacks on targets in the United States," and that the raid was conducted in collaboration with the FBI after Interpol issued an arrest warrant for him.  [Read more:  Lyman&deGoeig/NYTimes/19October2016]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

New Trade-Regulation Debate: Should the US Share Intelligence With Cuba?   President Barack Obama's new 12-page directive on trade and travel to Cuba, widely heralded for its elimination of limits on Americans' purchases of cigars and rum, contains a largely unnoticed provision that has alarmed Cuban-Americans in South Florida.

It instructs the US director of national intelligence to cooperate with Cuban intelligence services.

The Obama administration says the one-sentence objective, which calls on the Office of the Director of National Intelligence "to find opportunities for engagement on areas of common interest" with Cuban counterparts, is intended to combat "mutual threats."

But in South Florida the directive has angered a community that remembers the roles Cuban spies and agents played in the downing of two planes of the Brothers to the Rescue exile group and the theft of US military secrets by an agent planted in the Defense Intelligence Agency.  [Read more:  Ordoñez/MiamiHerald/20October2016]

Former Intelligence Leader Details Roles Played in National Security.  Balancing civil liberties, while protecting Americans and American assets, is a continuing struggle for the US intelligence community, according to a former leader and advisor to two presidents.

The Honorable Joan Dempsey spoke about how the domestic and foreign intelligence community has evolved since the Cold War as part of the fifth annual Lessons of History Distinguished Lecture Series sponsored by the Mid-Atlantic Center for the Arts and Humanities Inc. (MAC) and Martel Associates Oct. 9.

Dempsey was the first woman confirmed by the Senate for one of the top three US intelligence positions when she served as deputy director of Central Intelligence for Community Management under former President Bill Clinton and was executive director of the President's Foreign Intelligence Board under former President George W. Bush.

She also is the former assistant secretary of defense for intelligence and security; former deputy director of defense intelligence for analysis and production; former naval reserve officer and former naval cryptologist. She currently is an executive vice president in consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton's defense and intelligence business where she leads the National Agencies Account.  [Read more:  Knight/CapeMayCountyHerald/21October2016]

Jihadists' Favorite Messaging Apps Gain Popularity in DC.  Some of the same unhackable applications that have become the "favorite technologies" of the Islamic State and other terrorist groups have gained popularity in Washington, DC, in part because the federal government is still struggling to find ways to protect government communications.

Wickr, Telegram, and similar apps that promise the ability to send encrypted, self-destructing messages have a certain appeal throughout the political class, but especially within the intelligence community. Rep. Mike Pompeo, a former Army intelligence officer who now sits on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, uses one such app because hackers might gain valuable information from something as innocent as a conversation with a family member.

"I use [an encrypted messaging app] for my personal stuff, not for my official work," the Kansas Republican, who emphasized that he doesn't discuss classified information on the program, explained to the Washington Examiner. "Foreign governments want to know what elected officials around the world are doing. I want them to know less and not more about who I am and how I interact with others."

That precaution is not unique to Pompeo. "It is a prudent move," Senate Intelligence Committee member James Lankford, R-Okla., who declined to discuss his personal cyber-security practices with the Examiner, said of the apps. "There is no question that individuals that work within the federal government, whether it be agency heads or members of Congress - those are prime targets for foreign actors to be able to track what we do, what we think, how we function, as they build a file on each leader within the federal government."  [Read more:  Gehrke/WashingtonExaminer/24October2016]

3 Benefits of Working for the CIA - General Counsel of the CIA Spills the Beans.  Although shows like Homeland and House of Cards make government work seem cutthroat and even hostile, Caroline Krass, General Counsel (GC) for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), has had some contrasting experiences.  In a time of often-intense political partisanship, for example, Krass was confirmed by a 95 to 4 Senate vote on March 13, 2014.  With a deep commitment to public service, Krass has worked for more than twenty years in demanding and complicated legal roles for several government agencies, including at the White House as Special Counsel to the President for National Security Affairs, at the United States Department of Justice as Acting Assistant Attorney General for the Office of Legal Counsel, as well as the Departments of State and the Treasury, the National Security Council, and the US Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia. While most of Krass' work as the GC of the CIA is highly classified, Krass was able to share three top benefits with us.  [Read more:  Mack&Bloom/AbovetheLaw/24October2016]

'No Regrets' Says Man Who Aided Double Agent George Blake to Escape.  Exactly 50 years ago, on 22 October 1966, one of Britain's most notorious double agents escaped from prison. With ministers, the police special branch and MI5 all assuming it was the work of the KGB, a huge manhunt failed to find him. While the country's ports were watched and his photograph was displayed on television and the front pages, he was lying low in a nearby bedsit.

The extraordinary circumstances surrounding the breakout did not emerge for 25 years. Security and intelligence chiefs were as anxious to keep it under wraps as those responsible for the escape – two anti-nuclear campaigners and a petty criminal. Official documents on the affair remain secret on the grounds that their release would cause distress to individuals still living. But now, in advance of today's 50th anniversary, one of those involved in the escape has told the Guardian that he has no regrets.

The episode had elements of sheer farce from the very beginning. On the night of 22 October 1966, the deputy governor of Wormwood Scrubs telephoned Shepherd's Bush police station in west London. “I have just been informed by my chief that we have lost one of our chaps over the wall," he said. "We think it's Blake."

"Blake?" asked the duty constable. "Yes," came the reply, "the one doing 42 years. He went over the east wall. He's probably in prison grey. Look, I'm a bit tucked up at the moment, I'm in the middle of releasing a man. I'll ring you back when I get more information."  [Read more:  Norton-Taylor/TheGuardian/21October2016]

Section III - COMMENTARY

How Russia Pulled Off the Biggest Election Hack in US History.  On an April afternoon earlier this year, Russian president Vladimir Putin headlined a gathering of some four hundred journalists, bloggers, and media executives in St. Petersburg. Dressed in a sleek navy suit, Putin looked relaxed, even comfortable, as he took questions. About an hour into the forum, a young blogger in a navy zip sweater took the microphone and asked Putin what he thought of the "so-called Panama Papers."

The blogger was referring to a cache of more than eleven million computer files that had been stolen from Mossack Fonseca, a Panamanian law firm. The leak was the largest in history, involving 2.6 terabytes of data, enough to fill more than five hundred DVDs. On April 3, four days before the St. Petersburg forum, a group of international news outlets published the first in a series of stories based on the leak, which had taken them more than a year to investigate. The series revealed corruption on a massive scale: Mossack Fonseca's legal maneuverings had been used to hide billions of dollars. A central theme of the group's reporting was the matryoshka doll of secret shell companies and proxies, worth a reported $2 billion, that belonged to Putin's inner circle and were presumed to shelter some of the Russian president's vast personal wealth.

When Putin heard the blogger's question, his face lit up with a familiar smirk. He nodded slowly and confidently before reciting a litany of humiliations that the United States had inflicted on Russia. Putin reminded his audience about the sidelining of Russia during the 1998 war in Kosovo and what he saw as American meddling in Ukraine more recently. Returning to the Panama Papers, Putin cited WikiLeaks to insist that "officials and state agencies in the United States are behind all this." The Americans' aim, he said, was to weaken Russia from within: "to spread distrust for the ruling authorities and the bodies of power within society."  [Read more:  Rid/Esquire/20October2016]

Commentary: When Does Hacking Become Russian Disinformation?  During the Cold War, the Soviet KGB coined the term "desinformatsiya," or disinformation, which the CIA defined as "false, incomplete or misleading information" fed to various targets. Both the Soviet Union and the United States engaged in the same game, though the Russians played it far more vigorously.

In the digital age, the players might not have to go to the trouble of altering information, or mixing true information with false. Simply hacking into sensitive emails or other data, even when the information is true, can have the same impact as disinformation.

Witness WikiLeaks' release of a steady flow of emails the group asserts are from John Podesta, chairman of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign and former counselor to President Barack Obama. Though the Clinton campaign has not verified that the hacked material is authentic, much of it rings true as inside baseball, the kind of back and forth that political campaign staffers engage in as they plan strategy.     

So far at least, none of the Podesta leaks have produced a smoking gun or looks to have had much impact on the campaign. None of it would be too exciting in a normal presidential election cycle.  [Read more:  Wise/Reuters/24October2016]

Guess What India and China Need to Improve Relations? More Spies.  Strange as it may sound, China and India need a basis in espionage to improve their relationship. The two countries are ignorant of each other's strategies, with suspicion taking the place of intelligence just when understanding is critical. Both nuclear powers, they have the world's largest border dispute on their hands, at over 100,000 square kilometres. They tussle over sea routes in the Indian Ocean, spheres of influence in neighbouring countries and relations with Pakistan. They need to know each other better.

Neither country engages satisfactorily in normal people-to-people interaction. Only 175,000 Chinese tourists visited India last year, compared with 2.4 million to China's arch-rival Japan. China's investments in India total just US$4 billion, less than its investments in Poland. India's investments in China are smaller still. There is also a dearth of diplomatic exchange. India's embassy in China has just 30 diplomats. Only 9,200 Indian students study in China, with even fewer Chinese students in India.

This is an unsatisfactory state of affairs for two of the greatest civilisations to have existed and it is unlikely that stronger ties will develop quickly. It is vital that the two countries improve the one area of understanding that is available - that of state-sponsored intelligence.

China's spy service network is widespread with hundreds of thousands of staff in several different agencies and more outside the intelligence services. The data provided is often useless, and if useful, often ignored. India's spy services are smaller but it has some outstanding agents who carry out the bulk of the useful work. These exceptional agents have, by themselves, justified the budgets of the entire intelligence network by serving India's national interests at critical moments. But India does not have an effective team focused on China. Meanwhile, China has not devoted resources to India - its government accepts that it lacks detailed intelligence on India but believes there is no need to assign more resources.  [Read more:  Groffman/SouthChinaMorningPost/24October2016]

Giving Intelligence Analysts Their Voices Back: The Case for Analyst Perspectives.  "Speak truth to power" - the sacred and deep cultural oath of the CIA and broader intelligence community - reminds intelligence analysts of their responsibility to provide unvarnished, non-politicized assessments to policymakers. And yet, these days speak truth to power may ring hollow for many analysts, not because organizations and leaders in the US system politicize intelligence, but rather because the onerous coordination and review process has too often resulted in watered-down and less impactful analysis. Unlike in the academic community where a diversity of views based on the same evidence is encouraged, the intelligence community actively admonishes against it in favor of a review process meant to build a consensus, even if one does not exist. The end product of this bureaucratic process, known as "the corporate product," purposefully masks analytic disagreement in favor of presenting a united "analytic line" to the policymaker.

Indeed, the corporate product has been around for ages. However, it was reinvigorated in the 1980s by then-Deputy Director of the CIA Robert M. Gates, who in 1992 as Director of Central Intelligence told a CIA audience that "they must discard the academic mindset that says their work is their own, and they must take into account the views of others during the coordination process." Scholar Richard Betts would later accurately observe that "intelligence products are supposed to represent the best judgments of whole organizations, not single authors." Now considered standard practice throughout the intelligence community, the corporate product is designed to avoid "confusing" policymakers with too many disparate views. Moreover, rigorous peer and management review is believed to strengthen analysis. So why change anything?

Whether we realize it or not, many policymakers are formidable analysts themselves. In many cases, they have their own deep expertise. Moreover, they have access to much of the same raw reporting and finished analysis offered by intelligence agencies as well as policy materials that are not always shared with intelligence analysts. Therefore, policymakers are typically perceptive enough to understand that different viewpoints indeed exist, and that some are more strongly supported by the available information than others.

The coordination and review process for corporate products can be considered a peer-review process, but in reality, it is a compromise process.   [Read more:  Grossman/WarOnTheRocks/20October2016]


Section IV - Deaths, Readings, and Events

Deaths

Peter J. Faletto Jr. - former NSA Linguist and Operations Manager

Pete Faletto died suddenly on 21 October 2016 following a home accident. Following college, he enlisted in the Army Security Agency and entered on duty at NSA as an analyst in 1964 where he rose to Division-level management before retiring in 1998 with 35 years of service. Pete was also a pround member of the Phoenix Society.
During his cryptologic career, Pete completed three field tours with the agency as an operations officer and manager. Prior to his second field assignment, he was certified as a linguist. Following retirement he worked for Lockheed Martin for five years before opening a tax business with his wife in Laurel, Maryland. For 12 years he owned and operated Value Tax 4, Inc. in Laurel Mall and on Main Street where he was known and loved by all of his clients as "Mr. Pete." He sold the tax business in 2015 to travel with his family and enjoy his home away from home in Ocean City.
He also enjoy pastimes of playing on the NSA softball league, and enjoyed other sports teams, gardening, birding, and cooking.
Pete is survived by his wife of 47 years, Mary (Smith) Faletto - the current Senior Administrator Extraordinaire of the National Cryptologic Museum Foundation. He is also survived by a son, daughter, and other family.
We will all deeply miss his warmth, generosity, counsel and wonderful sense of humor. As C.S. Lewis wrote..."his absence will be like the sky, spread over everything."
Viewing will be held at Donaldson Funeral Home, 1411 Annapolis Rd, Odenton (Ft. Meade) Friday, 2-4 pm and 6-8 pm and graveside services with military honors will be held at 2 p.m. on Saturday, 29 October, in the Smith Family Cemetery located at 7659 Sandy Farm Rd, Severn, Md off of Md Rt 70 and Wieker Rd. Follow the county road until it ends at a private gravel drive then proceed to the fork in the road and turn left to the cemetery on the hill.
Pete often spoke about wishing to give something back to the agency for all the opportunities it afforded him and his family to travel the world. In his memory, please join with his family and friends by donating to the National Cryptologic Museum Foundation In Memoriam Registry, Post Office Box 1682, Ft. Meade, Md 20755.

Reading

The Study of Intelligence.  This is a review of AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence, Peter C. Oleson, Editor. Association of Former Intelligence Officers, Falls Church, VA, afio.com, 2016, 788 pages, $95.00.

First, a disclaimer. I am one of the 82 - yes 82 - authors contributing to this massive work.

AFIO's Guide has been in the works for 6 years, and that kind of work shows. The book is a comprehensive and extremely readable look at the entire subject of intelligence and at teaching about it. It is not restricted to governmental intelligence - it is much broader than that, although many of its contributors are former government intelligence community members.

I said readable, and I really mean that. This book is aimed not only at those teaching about governmental intelligence, but also those teaching where intelligence is one topic of interest. To me that includes history, politics, foreign relations, civil rights, and civics among other subjects. As a history buff, I am enthralled by it.  [Read more:  McGonagle/ProactiveIntelligence/20October2016] Book is available for purchase from AFIO here and from Amazon here.



AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

Friday, 28 October 2016, 11am - 2 pm - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Fall Luncheon features Associate Director of CIA for Talent, Glenn A. Gaffney, and author/journalist James Kitfield. "The new American way of war, and the special talent and skills CIA is hiring for it."

Glenn Gaffney, Associate Director of CIA for Talent will address the current and future needs and skills the agency is seeking. Gaffney has a broad, career-long exposure to those needs. Prior to his current assignment, Gaffney served as the CIA's Director for Science and Technology; and in 2008 was Deputy Director of National Intelligence for Collection. Mr. Gaffney began his career with CIA in 1986 as a technical analyst in the Directorate of Intelligence working on cross-directorate clandestine technical collection operations to address critical technical intelligence gaps. In 1996, Mr. Gaffney served as part of a team which laid the foundation for creation of the Information Operations Center (has different name today), the Agency's lead organization for cyber operations.

The morning speaker is James Kitfield, author of the forthcoming book: Twilight Warriors: The Soldiers, Spies, and Special Agents Who Are Revolutionizing the American Way of War. Kitfield was a senior correspondent for National Journal and is a three-time winner of the Gerald R. Ford Prize for Distinguished Reporting on National Defense. he is a senior fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress.

"A compelling chronological examination of the new intelligence-driven, multiagency
counterterrorism model the US military now uses to meet the 'Age of Superterrorism' Kitfield gets inside the US military 'brotherhood' to produce an engaging and chilling report." -- Kirkus Reviews
"Twilight Warriors provides a uniquely intimate and timely window into the special
operations, intelligence and law enforcement counterterrorism efforts of the past two decades. Compelling and insightful, it is the most up-to-date account available of the ongoing war on terrorism. James Kitfield's gripping portraits of the key figures leading this struggle makes this book required reading for anyone wishing to understand the threat that terrorism continues to pose - and what we are doing to defeat it." -- Bruce Hoffman, Professor & Director, Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University.

Register now at this link. This will be AFIO's final 2016 luncheon and the final day to register is Thursday up to noon when registration closes for security reasons.

Thursday, 10 November 2016, 11:30am - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Andre LeGallo Chapter hosts author and journalist, Peter Robinson on The Cambridge Spies

Journalist/author Peter Robinson discusses the Cambridge Spies at this AFIO San Francisco Chapter event. Robinson explores the impact of Kim Philby, Donald Maclean, Guy Burgess, Anthony Blunt and others on American-British relations.
Where: United Irish Cultural Center, 2700 45th Ave between Sloat and Wawona, San Francisco, CA 94116.
Fee: Members $25; Non-Member guests $35. Non-host cocktails at 11:30AM; meeting starts promptly at noon.
Reservation and pre-payment is required before October 31, 2016. RSVP to Mariko Kawaguchi, Board Secretary, AFIO SF Chapter at afiosf@aol.com

12 November 2016 - Melbourne, FL - The AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter hosts Brevard County Sheriff Wayne Ivey on keynote speaker

The keynote speaker at this luncheon will be Brevard County Sheriff Wayne Ivey.

The meeting takes place at the At Ease Club, Indian River Colony Club, 1936 Freedom Dr., Melbourne, FL.
Attendance is by registration only. To register, go to www.afiofsc.com or contact FSC Chapter President at afiofsc@afio.com.

Saturday, 12 November 2016, 11 am -3 pm - Orange Park, FL - AFIO Northern Florida Chapter Meeting - hold the date

Chapter president Dane Baird is currently arranging for a guest speaker, perhaps a current or former military flag officer, and information on the speaker will be announced in the chapter newsletter coming out later this month. As always, family and interested guests (especially potential members) are welcome to attend. Hope to see you there.
Event location: Country Club of Orange Park.
RSVP: Quiel Begonia at qbegonia@comcast.net or call him at (904) 545-9549.

Monday, 5 December 2016, 5:30 pm - New York, NY - AFIO New York Chapter hosts David Hunt, former CIA Operations Officer, discussing "Intelligence in Flux."

David P. Hunt, former CIA Operations Officer wil discuss "Intelligence in Flux: From the Cold War to Today Under New Presidential Leadership."

Hunt holds CIA's Donovan Award for Excellence, and the Distinguished Intelligence Medal, CIA's highest award. He is also a member of the NY Chapter's Board.
Location: Society of Illustrators building, 128 E 63rd St, (Between Park Ave and Lexington Ave).
Time: Registration starts 5:30 pm; Meeting at 6 pm.
Cost: $50/person. Payment at the door only by cash or check. Includes full dinner, cash bar.
To Register: Registration is strongly suggested, not required. Please call chapter president, Jerry Goodwin, at 646-717-3776 or Email: afiometro@gmail.com


Other Upcoming Events

25 October 2016 - Bolling AFB, DC - NMIA 2016 Fall Classified Symposium "Winning Tomorrow's Battles."

Our friends and colleagues at the National Military Intelligence Association (NMIA) host their 2016 Classified Fall Symposium, "Winning Tomorrow's Battles: New Techniques, Tools, and Technologies."
The event will be held at the SECRET/5 EYES Security Level. Program now features Maj. Gen. VeraLinn "Dash" Jamieson, Deputy Commander, JFCC-ISR, US Strategic Command Rear Admiral Brett Heimbigner, Prospective Deputy Commander, JFCC ISR Air Vice Marshall Sean Corbett, Deputy Director for Commonwealth Integration and many more. This is an event worth attending.
Event location: Tighe Auditorium, DIA Headquarters, Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling.
Online Registration here.

28 October 2016, 10 am - 2 pm - Arlington, VA - NIP Fall Luncheon and Annual Meeting

Registration for the NIP Fall Luncheon and Annual Meeting Due COB 26 Oct 2016!
Registration remains open for our great sister association, Naval Intelligence Professionals' 2016 NIP Annual General Membership Meeting and Fall Luncheon which will be held on Friday, 28 October 2016, at the Army Navy Country Club (ANCC) in Arlington, VA. This beautiful venue located minutes from the Pentagon and ONI. Has plenty of parking. Guest Luncheon speaker will be Rear Admiral Bob Sharp, Commander, Office of Naval Intelligence.
The NIP Annual General Membership Meeting scheduled to commence at 1000 is open to current NIP members only.
The no-host social hour followed by the luncheon is scheduled to start at 1100. Please pass along to those that might be interested that you do not need to be a member of NIP to attend the no-host social hour and luncheon. See attached luncheon flyer for more details. Spread the word! See you there!
Once again we have an online registration system to pay by credit card and, as indicated, you don't have to be a member to sign up and attend. To register do so here.
Questions? email navintpro@aol.com that you plan to attend.
NO WALK UPS PLEASE, REGISTRATIONS DUE BY COB 26 October 2016

Saturday, 5 November 2016, 10am-4pm - Washington, DC - Tenth Annual Parade of Trabants - at the International Spy Museum

It's been more than 25 years since the Berlin Wall fell, but one Cold War icon is still chugging away―the Trabant.  Despite their questionable performance and smoky two-stroke engines, these little cars are now regarded as a symbol of East Germany and the fall of Communism. Trabants are a rarity here, but on November 5 some of the finest examples of Trabants in the US will chug their way to the International Spy Museum to celebrate the Tenth Annual Parade of Trabants. Drop in to view the vintage cars, which will be parked in front of the Museum on F Street, NW, and enter a raffle to win a ride in a Trabant. You can even be part of the annual Trabant stuffing contest.  While the cars are on display, experts will be on hand to answer questions about Trabants, the Cold War, and Communism, while the Alte Kameraden German Band provides festive music. Try your hand at graffiti Berlin-style and see if you can fit into the tiny spaces like those escaping from East Berlin did. The event is free. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Monday, 14 November 2016, 6:30-9pm - Washington, DC - Spy School Workshop: Using Iraqi WMD to Understand the Analytic Process - at the International Spy Museum

What was it like to be an intelligence analyst in the lead up to the Iraq War?  This simulation gives you the chance to find out.  How would you fare with limited information and colleagues you may not know from agencies that may have different agendas than your own?  This multi-stage simulation mimics the analytic process of the US Intelligence Community to produce the National Intelligence Estimates (NIE).  Your team of analysts will be assigned the role of an agency such as the CIA or DIA, and then must work with other groups to prepare an NIE that assesses the status of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program.  Hindsight is not allowed. You'll be using actual intelligence available to analysts in 2002.  Dr. William J. Lahneman, a former US Navy Surface Warfare Officer, professor of homeland security at Embry-Riddle University, and co-editor of The Art of Intelligence: Simulations, Exercises, and Games, will lead the simulation.  Tickets for the general public: $40. Visit www.spymuseum.org

1 December 2016 - Bolling AFB, DC - NMIA 2016 Fall Classified Symposium "Winning Tomorrow's Battles: New Techniques, Tools, and Technologies" has been shifted to this new date. Same superb program. (New Date. This was rescheduled from earlier date)

Our great colleagues at the National Military Intelligence Association (NMIA) are hosting their 2016 Classified Fall Symposium, "Winning Tomorrow's Battles: New Techniques, Tools, and Technologies: New Techniques, Tools, and Technologies" at Leadership Hall, DIA Headquarters, Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling. A perfect way to close the year updated on the latest issues and proposed solutions to thorny intelligence issues to solve tomorrow's battles.
The event will be held at the SECRET/5 EYES Security Level.
Event location: Leadership Hall, DIA Headquarters, Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling.
Online Registration here.


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