AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #01-17 dated 3 January 2017

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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Jobs, Research Request, and Obituaries

Jobs

Obituaries

Section V - Events

Upcoming AFIO Events

Other Upcoming Events

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events 

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors:  pjk, mh, gh, mk, rd, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.
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AFIO's Guide to the Study of IntelligenceAFIO's 800-page Guide to the Study of Intelligence.
Peter C. Oleson, Editor.
Perfect for professors, students, those considering careers in intelligence, and current/former officers seeking to see what changes are taking place across a wide spectrum of intelligence disciplines.

Read a review of The Guide by Joe Goulden, released today in the Washington Times.

AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence helps instructors teach about the large variety of subjects that make up the field of intelligence. This includes secondary school teachers of American History, Civics, or current events and undergraduate and graduate professors of History, Political Science, International Relations, Security Studies, and related topics, especially those with no or limited professional experience in the field. Even those who are former practitioners are likely to have only a limited knowledge of the very broad field of intelligence, as most spend their careers in one or two agencies at most and may have focused only on collection or analysis of intelligence or support to those activities.

The topics addressed in the Guide are not comprehensive to remain brief; however, some cover complex subjects, such as reconnaissance from space, intelligence in WWII, and the history of espionage cases. The Guide is organized into seven parts. View table of contents and names of authors here.
The price is $95, includes free Fedex shipping to a CONUS (US-based) address. AK, HI, and other US or foreign addresses should contact afio@afio.com to inquire about shipping options.

To order use this online form. Orders going to AK, HI, other US territories, or other countries call our office at 703-790-0320 or send email to afio@afio.com.

The book is also available from Amazon at this link.

     

Friday, 24 February 2017 - Tysons Corner, VA

Register for AFIO's Kick-off Luncheon for 2017

Enhanced Interrogation: Inside the Minds and Motives of the Islamic Terrorists
Trying to Destroy America,
and
Spy Sites of Washington, DC.

REGISTER NOW.

Morning Speakers...    

  Dr. James E. Mitchell was a civilian contractor who spent years training US military members to resist interrogation should they be captured. Aware of the urgent need to prevent impending catastrophic terrorist attacks, he worked with the CIA to implement "enhanced interrogation techniques"--which included waterboarding. Despite the media hysteria that followed, he tells us why EIT remains valuable. Mitchell's co-author, Bill Harlow, will be present but not a presenter.
Afternoon Speakers...    
Robert Wallace and H. Keith Melton, authors of what will be the just-released Spy Sites of Washington, DC: A Guide to the Capital Region's Secret History. A mesmerizing tour of traitors and tradecraft revealing the wheres and whys of Washington's second-oldest profession. Robert Wallace is the former director of CIA's Office of Technical Service. He and Melton have co-authored four books. Keith Melton is an intelligence historian and owns one of the largest collections of spy paraphernalia in the world.  

"Emotions are high and accusations are being thrown about, but facts matter. Before anyone rushes to judgment, they should read this book and take in what happened through the eyes of a key player in the CIA's interrogation program." -- General Michael Hayden, USAF, Ret., Former CIA Director

"The authentic account of head-to-head hardball with fanatical Islamic killers by a professional who not only won big for America, but did it while fending off powerful critics. The lessons learned needed to be told -- and well-told they are. The war on us by radical Islamists is far from over -- read and learn!"
-- Hon. Porter J. Goss, Former Chairman of House Intelligence Committee and CIA Director

Location: Crowne Plaza Hotel Mezzanine, 1960 Chain Bridge Rd, Tysons Corner, VA 22102. Hotel: 703 893-2100. Driving directions here or use this link: http://tinyurl.com/boey9vf  For security reason, reservations on day of event are not allowed.

REGISTER NOW.


EVENT CANCELED
DNI James R. Clapper discusses

"Intelligence Challenges for the New President"
Friday 13 January 2017 at 2 p.m.
at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School National Security Lecture

EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELED

Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security is a new graduate school serving the national security community
1620 L St NW, Seventh Floor, Washington, DC 20036 - OFFICE: 202-759-4988
Questions? EMAIL: events@DanielMorgan.academy


Intelligence Studies Section on
Understanding Change in World Politics

22-25 February 2017

Headquarters Hotel: Hilton Baltimore
- Baltimore, MD -

The International Studies Association (ISA)
58th Annual Convention: "Understanding Change in World Politics."

This major annual academic event has a section of special interest to professors and students studying intelligence: the Intelligence Studies Section (ISS) which hosts many panels and presentations at the conference.
A tentative list of the ISS panels at this ISA may be viewed here.

ISA has a new online program (requires login) that lets ISA members or event registrants to search by person, title, sponsor, and keywords. You can use this to build a personalized schedule that you can download as a PDF to have handy when you're at the convention.

For much more information visit this link.
- - - -

  • Also see the large March 30 Joint Conference at the Wilson Center and other venues on "Creating and Challenging the Transatlantic Intelligence Community" announced in this issue.

Book of the Week:

Mitchell and HarlowDebriefing the President: The Interrogation of Saddam Hussein
by John Nixon
(Blue Rider Press; Dec 2016)

Available NOW.

"A fascinating glimpse of the "tough, shrewd, manipulative" leader and his views on the U.S. invasion, Iraqi history, and his own role in the Middle East...An intelligent and readable postscript to the Iraq War that will be valuable for future historians." -- Kirkus (starred review)

In December 2003, after one of the largest, most aggressive manhunts in history, US military forces captured Iraqi president Saddam Hussein near his hometown of Tikrit. Beset by body-double rumors and false alarms during a nine-month search, the Bush administration needed positive identification of the prisoner before it could make the announcement that would rocket around the world.
            At the time, John Nixon was a senior CIA leadership analyst who had spent years studying the Iraqi dictator. Called upon to make the official ID, Nixon looked for telltale scars and tribal tattoos and asked Hussein a list of questions only he could answer. The man was indeed Saddam Hussein, but as Nixon learned in the ensuing weeks, both he and America had greatly misunderstood just who Saddam Hussein really was.
            Debriefing the President presents a candid portrait of one of our era's most notorious strongmen. Nixon, the first man to conduct a prolonged interrogation of Hussein after his capture, offers insight into the history and mind of America's enigmatic enemy. After years of parsing Hussein's leadership from afar, Nixon faithfully recounts his debriefing sessions and subsequently strips away the mythology surrounding an equally brutal and complex man. His account is not an apology, but a sobering examination of how preconceived ideas led Washington policymakers -- and the Bush White House -- astray. Unflinching and unprecedented, Debriefing the President exposes a fundamental misreading of one of the modern world's most central figures and presents a new narrative that boldly counters the received account.

The book may be ordered here.


Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Kenyan Intelligence Agency Gets Sh5bn More in 2017 Budget.  The National Intelligence Service (NIS) will get an extra Sh5 billion in next year's budget to expand its operations as the country heads to the General Election.

The amount is part of the Sh8.5 billion that Treasury had chopped from the Sh35.1 billion budget that the spy agency had asked for to finance priority operation areas, including counter-terrorism, intelligence and to secure the Kenyan border with Somalia.

The NIS had submitted a budget of Sh35.1 billion for the 2017/18 financial year but was allocated Sh26.6 billion going by the Budget Policy Statement (BPS) ceilings, resulting in the Sh8.5 billion shortfall.

Bare Shill, the National Assembly's Defence and Foreign Relations committee vice chairperson, told the Budget and Appropriations Committee (BAC) that the money is needed to strengthen multi-agency collaboration and co-ordination as well as modernisation of operational equipment, systems and tools such as surveillance systems.  [Read More:  Mutai/BusinessDailyAfrica/2January2017]

Russia Conducts Fifth Test of New Anti-Satellite Missile - Third Successful Flight Test of Satellite-Killing Weapon.  Russia successfully flight tested a new missile capable of knocking out strategic US communications and navigation satellites, according to Pentagon officials.

The test of the PL-19 Nudol missile was carried out Dec. 16 from a base in central Russia, and was monitored by US intelligence agencies.

It was the fifth test of the Nudol missile and the third successful flight of a system Moscow has claimed is for use against enemy missiles, said officials familiar with the reports of the launch.

The exact location of the flight test was not disclosed. Earlier tests of the missile took place from a facility near Plesetsk, located 500 miles north of Moscow. [Read More:  Gertz/FreeBeacon/21December2016]

Ex-Campaign Chief of Trump Met S. Korean Intelligence Chief, Politicians.  A former campaign chairman of US President-elect Donald Trump, Paul Manafort, visited South Korea last month during which he held meetings with the head of the country's intelligence service and senior politicians, according to the politicians who met with Manafort on Monday.

The visit by Manafort to South Korea came before North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, in his New Year's message on Sunday, said that the North is close to launching an intercontinental ballistic missile.

South Korea is also in political turmoil over an ongoing influence-peddling scandal involving President Park Geun-hye.

Manafort separately met Lee Byung-ho, head of the National Intelligence Service, and ruling and opposition politicians, including Kim Chong-in, former interim chief of the main opposition Democratic Party, and former opposition leader Sohn Hak-kyu.  [Read More:  Yonhapnews/2January2017]

US, Iraqi Sources Say Islamic State Leader Baghdadi Alive Despite Death Reports.  Though posts on social media in recent weeks suggest Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has died, comments by a US official and reports of his actions in Iraq suggest otherwise.

CNN reported there have been few signs of Baghdadi in months and in recent weeks there have been unverified social media reports that he was killed or injured.

But on Thursday, an anonymous US official who has access to the most recent US government reporting on the Islamic State told CNN that "in the last few weeks we've been aware of some of Baghdadi's movements."

The source said the report of Baghdadi's movements was not a "real time" report. The US assessment indicated where Baghdadi had recently been - not where he is now. The US government's leading theory is that Baghdadi is stationed in Raqqa, Syria - the Islamic State's self-proclaimed capital.  [Read More:  Pestano/UPI/30December2016]

Shin Bet Foiled Over 400 Significant Terror Attacks in 2016, Service Says.  The Shin Bet general security agency prevented over 400 terror attacks over the course of 2016, the service's chief revealed Tuesday during an award event for its most valued operations over the past two years.

During a ceremony to present the Prime Minister's Prize for operational-intelligence in 2015-2016 held at the Shin Bet headquarters, director Nadav Argaman praised the service's efforts in thwarting the attempted attacks.

It is thanks to the quality intelligence, the advanced technology, and the excellent human capital that the Shin Bet this year thwarted more than 400 significant attacks, Argaman said during the event.

"You saw everything that we saw, but you thought what no one else thought before," he told his agents. [Read More:  Winer/TimesOfIsreal/28December2016]

Turkish Police Detain 63 ISIL Suspects in Three Days Before Istanbul Attack.  The National Intelligence Agency (MİT) received intelligence on possible New Year's Eve attacks planned by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) on Dec. 19 and conducted operations against ISIL suspects between Dec. 28 and 31.

An ISIL militant staged an armed attack on a famous upscale Istanbul nightclub Reina in the early hours of Jan. 1, killing 39 people and injuring 65 others.

The intelligence indicated that ISIL was planning to stage bomb, suicide bomb or armed attacks on nightclubs, celebration spots and crowded places in the capital Ankara, Istanbul, and the southern provinces of Adana, Antalya and Mersin.

Operations were carried out in Istanbul, Ankara, the western province of İzmir, the southeastern province of Adıyaman, and the southern provinces of Hatay, Adana and Mersin, and a total of 63 ISIL militants were detained. Most of the detained militants were from foreign countries, according to the police report.  [Read More:  Kizilkoyun/HurriyetDailyNews/2January2017]

Britain Will Demand a Leading Role in Europol After Brexit.  Britain will demand a leading role in Europol after Brexit as ministers draw up plans to retain US-style membership of the international police force, the Telegraph can reveal.

The UK will push for a central role in the intelligence sharing agency but outside the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice following the decision to leave the European Union, according to a senior source.

The plan will form part of the UK's bargaining position with the EU and ministers will demand a new agreement similar to the one America has which would allow the UK to continue its leading role and keep staff based at the group's headquarters in the Hague.
 
Without the UK inside Europol, agreements with other states including the US may also have to be renegotiated, it is understood.  [Read More:  McCann/Telegraph/29December2016]

Germany Indicts Pakistani Man Accused of Spying for Iran.  German prosecutors have indicted a Pakistani man on charges of spying for an Iranian intelligence agency.

Federal prosecutors said Monday that the 31-year-old, identified only as Syed Mustufa H. due to German privacy rules, was in contact with the unnamed spy agency since 2011.

In a statement, prosecutors said the man began spying on the former head of a group that promotes German-Israeli relations by July 2015 at the latest.  [Read More:  AP/TimesColonist/2January2017]

China to Prosecute Former Senior Spy Chief for Corruption.  China will prosecute a former senior spy chief for bribery and abuse of power, the Communist Party said in a brief statement on Friday.

Ma Jian led counter-espionage operations at the Ministry of State Security, the vast secretive intelligence agency that monitors both citizens and foreigners in China.

His detention, which the South China Morning Post first reported in January 2015, led to revelations about massive abuses of power and political jockeying within the intelligence agency.

According to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, Ma had "seriously violated political discipline and political rules", using a phrase that suggested his offences went beyond the typical embezzlement.  [Read more:  Li/SCMP/30December2016]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Spy vs. Spy: The Bay of Pigs and the Battle for the Soul of the CIA.  CIA officials have finally lost the last of their efforts to keep the agency's reports and internal histories about the Bay of Pigs invasion secret. The CIA's attempt to overthrow Cuban dictator Fidel Castro in April 1961 remains one of the most controversial events in the agency's history. The National Security Archive worked tirelessly to declassify the two main reports involved: first, Inspector General Lyman Kirkpatrick's scathing critique and second, the response to it by Deputy Director for Plans Richard Bissell and his deputy Tracy Barnes. Both were hastily produced in the months following the operation's failure. After these victories for declassification, the National Security Archive forced the CIA to publish its internal histories, which staff historian Jack Pfeiffer wrote between 1979 and 1984. And just two months ago, it got the agency to release the draft of the fifth volume of these histories: Pfeiffer's "CIA's Internal Investigation of the Bay of Pigs," which revisits Kirkpatrick, Bissell, and Barnes' heated exchange.

Pfeiffer intended "to put one of [the CIA's] nastiest internal power struggles into proper perspective" when he began researching this in-house dispute. But, as David Robarge, the agency's current senior historian, has clarified, Pfeiffer's superiors rejected his draft submission "because of serious shortcomings in scholarship, its polemical tone, and its failure to add significantly to an understanding of the controversy." Thus, the CIA's lawyers argued that declassifying it would only confuse the public. These arguments failed to persuade the courts, however, and the public can now read it themselves. An opportunity has arisen, then, to put this power struggle, which Pfeiffer characterizes as "a skunk pissing contest," into proper perspective while explaining what it was about and clearing up any lingering confusion.

This matters because those who have approached these reports and histories thus far, from the National Security Archive to the press, have tended to celebrate their victory in exposing the CIA's embarrassment while failing to explain why agency officials feel embarrassed and what their embarrassment reveals. They have missed the most dramatic part of the CIA's early organizational history, when Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) Allen Dulles and others debated what kind of intelligence service the agency should be - and whether covert operators should be the ones to define and lead it. This remains a dramatic story of intra-service maneuvering worthy of a John le Carre novel. So, buckle up.  [Read More:  Lockhart/WarOnTheRocks/27December2016]

Fighting back: How Indonesia's Elite Police Turned the Tide on Militants.  As the world battles a spike in assaults and plots by Islamist militants, Indonesia's anti-terrorism unit is drawing praise for stemming a wave of bloody attacks in the sprawling Muslim-majority nation.

Indonesia has foiled at least 15 attacks this year alone and made more than 150 arrests, disrupting plots ranging from suicide attacks in Jakarta to a rocket attack from Indonesia's Batam island targeting Singapore.

Going back to 2010, a Reuters analysis of data shows the elite unit, Special Detachment 88 (Densus 88), has prevented at least 54 plots or attacks in the nation of 250 million people, the world's fourth largest.

"Densus 88 has become better than pretty well any other counter-terrorism group in the world," said Greg Barton, a terrorism export and research professor in Global Islamic Politics at Alfred Deakin Institute in Melbourne. [Read More:  Allard/Kapoor/Reuters/26December/2016]

Intelligence Compounds or Bucolic Resorts? Russian Estates May Be Both.  Russia was ordered to vacate two compounds it owns in Maryland and New York, as part of the sanctions imposed Thursday by the White House to punish Russia for its meddling in last month's US presidential election.

"They are compounds that the Russian government owns and that they use for multiple purposes .. .intelligence, but also recreational, as well," said a senior White House official in a call with press on Thursdsay. "And under the Foreign Missions Act, we have the authority to restrict their access to these properties based on their pattern of behavior."

While the Obama administration is calling them compounds, the sites - one on Maryland's Eastern Shore, the other in Oyster Bay on Long Island - certainly look like resorts for sun-seeking diplomats.

A 2007 Washington Life magazine profile showed then-Russian Ambassador Yuri Ushakov and his wife Svetlana strolling the 45-acre retreat in Centreville, Md.  [Read More:  Wamsley/NPR/30December2016]

The Biggest Security Threats Coming in 2017.  Whether it was a billion compromised Yahoo accounts or state-sponsored Russian hackers muscling in on the US election, this past year saw hacks of unprecedented scale and temerity. And if history is any guide, next year should yield more of the same.

It's hard to know for certain what lies ahead, but some themes began to present themselves toward the end of 2016 that will almost certainly continue well into next year. And the more we can anticipate them, the better we can prepare. Here's what we think 2017 will hold.  [Read More:  WiredStaff/Wired/2January2017]

Declassified CIA Maps Offer a Behind-the-Scenes Look at History.  When terrorists struck the United States on 9/11, the intelligence community had to quickly formulate a plan to find the perpetrators and bring them to justice. In those early hours, cartographers - a largely vestigial role - were crucial in providing an accurate picture of what Taliban-controlled Afghanistan looked like.

Before the advent of satellites and other high-tech surveillance capabilities, cartographers were a valuable asset to any military or intelligence operation. Since its inception all the way through the hunt for Osama bin Laden, the CIA used cartographers to draw up specialized maps for their intelligence needs. Even today, mapmakers are invaluable to the agency, because they are able to represent demographic elements on the ground that satellites cannot discern from orbit.

Recently, the CIA declassified a cache of these historic maps from the days of its predecessor, the OSS, in the 1940s, to 2010. The collection provides a peek into the art of cartography, and more importantly, a unique view of history. Some of these documents were used to subvert Soviet influences west of the Iron Curtain, while others contributed to the recent counterinsurgency efforts of coalition forces in Iraq.  [Read More:  RealClearLife/31December2016]

A Look Back: A Small Office With a Big Mission; The FBI's World War II-Era Cover Company at Rockefeller Center.  Everyone knows that the holiday season is well under way when the giant Christmas tree is lit at Rockefeller Center in New York City. What is less well known, however, is the connection between Rockefeller Center and the birth of America's civilian foreign intelligence efforts.

It was 1940 and the world had plunged into war the previous summer. Although America remained neutral at that time, it did not ignore the massive international threat, and an FBI operation - small but critical to America's response to that threat - was centered in the heart of New York City in Rockefeller Center. It was called the Importers and Exporters Service Company and operated out of room 4332 at 30 Rockefeller Center - the RCA Building - beginning in August 1940.

Importers and Exporters was the Bureau's first attempt to set up a long-term cover company for our covert program, the Special Intelligence Service (SIS). The SIS was the United States' first civilian foreign intelligence service and was less than a year old. Under a 1940 agreement signed by the Army, Navy, and FBI and approved by President Roosevelt, the FBI was given responsibility for "foreign intelligence work in the Western Hemisphere." This saw us gathering intelligence about espionage, counterespionage, subversion, and sabotage concerns - especially about Nazi activities - pertaining to civilians in South America, Central America, and the Caribbean. We were to create an undercover force that would proactively protect America's security from threats in our international neighborhood. Given that our past success was mostly in criminal matters, taking on this task would be a steep learning experience.

To begin, we wanted to center the operation away from traditional FBI facilities and wanted to anchor it in commercial efforts, because they would provide the freedom of movement and access our agents would need. Although it is not clear why the Bureau chose to establish a presence at 30 Rock, it likely had something to do with the support that Nelson Rockefeller had provided to President Roosevelt's intelligence work. Furthermore, on multiple occasions after the SIS's creation, our personnel were afforded cover by Nelson Rockefeller's Office of the Coordinator of Inter-American Affairs.  [Read More:  FBI/28December2016]

Five Myths About the President's Daily Brief: Washington Post Analysis.  We've learned that President-elect Donald Trump has declined many intelligence briefings, delegating the daily task instead to Vice President-elect Mike Pence. "I get it when I need it," Trump said. "I'm, like, a smart person. I don't need to be told the same thing and the same words every single day for the next eight years."

In some ways this is a departure from the approach of past presidents. But there's also widespread misunderstanding of the President's Daily Brief (PDB) and the traditions surrounding it. Here are five erroneous beliefs worth correcting.  [Read More:  Priess/OregonLive/31December2016]

Ex-CIA Director: I Was Sure if We Didn't Strike Syria's Nuclear Reactor, Israel Would.  Gen. Michael Hayden provides an inside look into the attack that stopped Assad's nuclear ambitions in their tracks. From that fateful moment when Meir Dagan entered his office with photos of the reactor, through the clash between the Mossad director and the CIA's analysts, who feared an all-out-war with Syria, to the secret meeting at Bush's residence in which Hayden announced: "Mr. President, the Syrians are building a nuclear reactor, and it is part of a weapons program."

"It was one of the most candid conversations I've ever had with him," says Gen. Michael Hayden as he recounts that fateful meeting with Mossad director Meir Dagan on the seventh floor of the United States Central Intelligence Agency headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

It was in April 2007, at the office of General Hayden, the director of the CIA at the time. When Hayden with his broad smile talks about a "candid conversation," he means one between two people who have known each other for many years and had great respect for one another. But at least in that conversation, there was total disagreement between them.

That charged conversation at Langley revolved around one question: "How can this thing, which undoubtedly endangers the peace in the region, be destroyed without starting an all-out war in the Middle East?"  [Read More:  Bergman/YnetNews/30December2016]

Section III - COMMENTARY

The Fable of Edward Snowden.  Of all the lies that Edward Snowden has told since his massive theft of secrets from the National Security Agency and his journey to Russia via Hong Kong in 2013, none is more provocative than the claim that he never intended to engage in espionage, and was only a "whistleblower" seeking to expose the overreach of NSA's information gathering. With the clock ticking on Mr. Snowden's chance of a pardon, now is a good time to review what we have learned about his real mission.

Mr. Snowden's theft of America's most closely guarded communication secrets occurred in May 2013, according to the criminal complaint filed against him by federal prosecutors the following month. At the time Mr. Snowden was a 29-year-old technologist working as an analyst-in-training for the consulting firm of Booz Allen Hamilton at the regional base of the National Security Agency (NSA) in Oahu, Hawaii. On May 20, only some six weeks after his job there began, he failed to show up for work, emailing his supervisor that he was at the hospital being tested for epilepsy.

This excuse was untrue. Mr. Snowden was not even in Hawaii. He was in Hong Kong. He had flown there with a cache of secret data that he had stolen from the NSA.

This was not the only lie Mr. Snowden told. As became clear during my investigation over the past three years, nearly every element of the narrative Mr. Snowden has provided, which reached its final iteration in Oliver Stone's 2016 movie, Snowden, is demonstrably false. [Read More:  Epstein/WSJ/30December2016]

Let the Spy Wars Begin: A Renewed Cold War for a Digital Age?  No doubt Vladimir Putin was making his list and checking it twice well before President Barack Obama picked 35 suspected Russian spies to boot from the United States. The Russian strongman, a career Soviet KGB operative during the Cold War, had been expected to respond in kind with his own list of expulsions but declined to do so Friday, preferring to wait for Donald Trump to take office.

In some ways, it's just like old times, when the Kremlin and Washington regularly engaged in tit-for-tat expulsions of a spy or two. But in other ways, it's not: this spy war long ago moved out of the shadows to entangle the US presidential elections. And it's been accompanied by months of public acrimony. That's entirely new. Not even the FBI's arrest of 10 Russian spies in 2011 was accompanied by such high-level verbal jousting.

In a statement Thursday, Obama repeated what he has said several times recently: "These data theft and disclosure activities could only have been directed by the highest levels of the Russian government." But President-elect Donald Trump has downplayed or outright dismissed evidence of Russian interference,  saying the hacks could be somebody sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds." Asked Wednesday night about Obama's long-awaited response to Russian hacking and fake-news assaults, Trump said, "I think we ought to get on with our lives." Trump said much the same Thursday afternoon, but added he would meet "next week" with intelligence officials "to be updated on the facts of the situation." Prior intelligence briefings have evidently failed to persuade him that the Russians are responsible for the hacks.

The Kremlin, which has called such allegations "groundless," despite a body of forensic evidence tying Russian hackers to penetrations of the Democratic National Committee,  dismissed Obama's actions Thursday as "a manifestation of an unpredictable and even aggressive foreign policy." It said there was "no need to rush" with countermeasures against Washington, especially since under the Trump administration, "such clumsy actions" will be a thing of the past.  [Read More:  Stein/Newsweek/29 December2016]


Section IV - Jobs, and Obituaries

Academic Jobs

The Intelligence Studies Project (ISP) of the Clements Center for National Security and the Robert Strauss Center for International Security and Law (Univ Texas, Austin) will grant a postdoctoral fellowship in intelligence studies to a promising young scholar in the 2017-2018 academic year.

This unique fellowship is intended to support the next generation of scholars and educators in the field of intelligence. Applicants from all disciplines whose research bears on national security intelligence are welcome to apply. International candidates are eligible and encouraged to apply. The successful applicant will be expected to work on research and writing projects of their own design, while taking advantage of the academic resources available at the University of Texas at Austin.
The Fellow will be expected to play an active role in programs and activities organized by the ISP and Clements and Strauss centers. Any specific responsibilities will be by mutual agreement between the Fellow and the ISP Director.
The Fellow accepted for this program will be offered a competitive stipend, full use of UT facilities, and workspace. Depending upon qualifications and interest, the Fellow may have the opportunity to teach a course at UT-Austin. The fellowship appointment is for one year, but in an exceptional case may be renewed for a second year.
For more information, please contact intelligencestudies@austin.utexas.edu.
Application Instructions: • Complete the online application by clicking the "Apply Now" button below; • Send graduate school transcripts and three letters of recommendation directly from your university and your recommenders to intelligencestudies@austin.utexas.edu.
• Applications for the 2017-2018 fellowship year are due on March 1, 2017.
**Note that applicants must have received their doctorate by August 14, 2017, the date the postdoctoral fellowship will commence.
More information is here.
APPLY NOW


Obituaries

Maria Larisch Ransburg, 97, Honorary board member, foundation executive, benefactor, and patriot. Maria, in concert with her late husband, Harold Ransburg, were strong, patriotic supporters of AFIO's scholarship and career programs over three decades. Maria continued that support in the decades after Harold's death personally and through a trust she had set up. She emigrated to the U.S. from war-torn Poland and Hungary, coming to the midwest and later settling in Florida. Her husband was the founder/developer of electrostatic painting and had plants around the world. Maria was a shrewd investor in real estate and bought undeveloped property in Naples and nearby Florida counties which grew valuable in post-war years making her, on her own, a multimillionaire. She was generous to her family and with support for organizations who recognized the terrors she had lived through in Europe and were seeking to avoid the repeat of such horrors in her newly adopted country. She was an active, involved donor and occasionally reached out to the recipients of her scholarships to see how they were doing in their studies -- charming them with her interest. She attended many AFIO national symposia in the 1980s until health lessened her ability to travel. She maintained a summer home in Spain until the 1990s, and dedicated many decades to the care of her beloved parrot, Kobi, who predeceased her. She loved music, the arts, fine fashion and decor. A visit to her house was an occasion to see a life well-lived with the finest china, carpets, clothes and furnishings. Lunch was always served at her private club. She maintained these standards up to the very end. She leaves a dear son, some stepsons from an earlier marriage, grandchildren, and a new great grandchild, and other family members. She will be greatly missed for her wisdom, intelligence, and recognition of worldwide trends that threaten all of us.

Joanne Bloom Perriens, 86, of Rockville, MD, an AFIO and Phoenix Society member, passed away quietly at her home surrounded by her family on 12/23/2016 after a long and courageous battle with breast cancer. She attended Mount Holyoke College where she majored in Political Science. After graduation, she made her way to Washington, DC, to work for the Bureau of Indian Affairs. Soon thereafter, she began a long and successful 46-year career with the National Security Agency, where she rose to the senior executive level - a trailblazer for women in government. Joanne was an avid bridge player, a voracious reader of all things political, both domestic and international, and a life-long Red Sox fan. Throughout her life, she supported numerous charitable causes. [Read More: Legacy/26Dec2016]

Warren Robert Strother, Jr. "Sparky" (Age 81) was born September 11, 1935. He was the beloved son of the late Warren R. Strother, Sr. and Dorothy Diggs Strother. He fought the good fight until the end, passing away unexpectedly on Wednesday, December 21, 2016, after battling kidney failure and heart disease. Warren, affectionately known as Sparky, grew up in Falls Church, Virginia where he enjoyed playing baseball with his neighborhood league. After graduating high school, he served in the United States Navy from 1953 to 1957 on the USS Randolph and USS Forrestal where he was deployed to Guantanamo and the Mediterranean during the Korean Conflict. He received a National Defense Medal for his dedicated service and was honorably discharged in 1957. He joined the Central Intelligence Agency where he worked as an Information Management Officer for 35 years, and he was commonly known as the number one "globe trotter" for his extensive travels around the world. He continued his passions in the private sector, working at Davelle Clothiers for a year before he became an independent contractor for Raytheon until 2016. [Read More: WashingtonPost/1January2017]

Wallace E. McIntyre, 98, of Cheyenne passed away Dec.14 at LeMay Ave. Health and Rehab in Fort Collins, Colo.

He was born Nov. 18, 1918, in Streator, Ill., to Alexander and Ann (Muhlstadt) McIntyre. His life was defined by a thirst for higher education and service to country. He received his diploma in teaching from Illinois State University and eventually went on to earn a master's degree from Northwestern University in education and a Ph. D. from Clark University in economic geography. He taught in a one-room school in Antioch, Ill., before moving on to college posts at the University of New Hampshire, West Texas State and Illinois State University. During his career he took three sabbaticals, including a year at the University of the Philippines on a Fulbright scholarship, a year in Frankfurt, Germany, teaching postgraduate education for the US Army and a postgraduate year at Harvard in economics.

During the World War II era, he served in the coastal artillery for the US Army and was discharged with a rank of major. He married his wife of 57 years, Margaret Price, in 1943 at the Presidio Army Chapel in San Francisco. His main career was as an intelligence analyst for the Central Intelligence Agency from 1958-1980. His specialty was chemical industries in the Eastern European Soviet bloc countries as well as the Near East. He traveled extensively to these areas in the Cold War era. He retired to Hilton Head Island where he spent many happy years tending his garden and watching the birds at his window birdfeeders.  [Read More:  WyomingTribuneEagle/1January2017]


Section V - Events

AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

12 January 2017 (Thursday) - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Andre LeGallo Chapter hosts Special Agent in Charge, John F. Bennett, FBI San Francisco Office.
Location: Basque Cultural Center, 599 Railroad Ave, South San Francisco, CA 94080. 11:30am no host cocktail; meeting and luncheon at noon. Eventbrite registration link is here.

Reservation and pre-payment is required before January 4, 2017. The venue cannot accommodate walk-ins.
Please contact Mariko Kawaguchi, Board Secretary at afiosf@aol.com or Mariko Kawaguchi, c/o AFIO, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011 for questions.

Thursday, 19 January 2017, 11:30am - Monument, CO - The AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter presents Radicalization, Ideology, and Terrorism in the Middle East.
The presentation will focus on radical ideology in the Middle East and its nexus to terrorism, to include an understanding of radical Islam, sectarian divisions, Shari'a law, the ideology of Jihad in Islam and global influence, regional control of the Islamic State in Iraq and Al Shaam (ISIS), and recent terror attacks in Europe. It will also include how propaganda, social media and non- traditional forms of messaging are influencing the next generation of terrorists, specifically women. The cost of the meal is $15. All presentations to the RMC, AFIO are on the basis of non-attribution so the speakers can feel free to provide information with the assurance it will not be published.
For details, please contact Tom VanWormer at robsmom@pcisys.net

Sunday, 29 January 2017, 11:30am - 1:30pm - Lyndhurst, OH - AFIO Great Lakes Chapter hosts Derek Siegle, HIDTA, on "The Responsibilities of the High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Program."

Derek M. Siegle is the Executive Director of HIDTA (High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area) Program which is a Federal Agency that coordinates and assists in law enforcement drug investigations. It is staffed by law enforcement officers detached from the FBI and other law enforcement agencies. His talk will cover the responsibilities of HIDTA.
Derek was the ASAC (Assistant Special Agent in Charge) of the FBI's Cleveland Division prior to assuming his present position.
Location: Private Room, Bar Louie, in Legacy Village, 24337 Cedar Rd, Lyndhurst, OH 44124. Food may be ordered off menu so arrive hungry as the room is provided with understanding it is a restaurant.
RSVP to John Heinsons at 440-413-5345.

Friday 10 February 2017, 12:30 - 2pm - Los Angeles, CA - The AFIO Los Angeles Chapter hears from John Hallstead and conducts elections and other business

Presentation: John Hallstead will give a brief intelligence topic overview, following the election & business portion of the meeting.
Lunch will be served
Location: L.A.P.D - ARTC 5651 W Manchester Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90045
RSVP: AFIO_LA@yahoo.com

Saturday, 11 February 2017, 11 am to 3 pm - Orange Park, FL - AFIO North Florida Chapter hosts first meeting of 2017

Location: Country Club of Orange Park. Never too early to get your RSVPs to Quiel, either via qbegonia@comcast.net or give him a call at (904) 545-9549. Please try to RSVP on/before the 1st of February so we can lock down attendance to keep the club happy. Remember, as always, kin or friends, especially potential members, are always welcome. Awaiting confirmation of a guest speaker, but hope the newsletter will be published in just a couple of weeks, just about inauguration day!

Saturday, 11 February 2017 - 11:30 - Melbourne, FL - The AFIO Florida Satellite Chapter's next meeting of will be announced shortly.

Meeting will be at the At Ease Club of the Indian River Colony Club, 1936 Freedom Drive, Melbourne, FL 32940. For information and reservations, please contact FSC Chapter President at afiofsc@afio.com.

24 February 2017 - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Kick-off Luncheon for 2017 - Enhanced Interrogation: Inside the Minds and Motives of the Islamic Terrorists Trying To Destroy America, and Spy Sites of Washington

AFIO National's first luncheon of 2017 features Dr. James E. Mitchell discussing Enhanced Interrogation: Inside the Minds and Motives of the Islamic Terrorists Trying To Destroy America. Mitchell was a civilian contractor who spent years training US military members to resist interrogation should they be captured. Aware of the urgent need to prevent impending catastrophic terrorist attacks, he worked with the CIA to implement "enhanced interrogation techniques"--which included waterboarding. Despite the media hysteria that followed, he tells us why EIT remains valuable. Mitchell's co-author, Bill Harlow, will be present but not a presenter.

"Emotions are high and accusations are being thrown about, but facts matter. Before anyone rushes to judgment, they should read this book and take in what happened through the eyes of a key player in the CIA's interrogation program." -- General Michael Hayden, USAF, Ret., Former CIA Director

"The authentic account of head-to-head hardball with fanatical Islamic killers by a professional who not only won big for America, but did it while fending off powerful critics. The lessons learned needed to be told -- and well-told they are. The war on us by radical Islamists is far from over -- read and learn!"
-- Hon. Porter J. Goss, Former Chairman of House Intelligence Committee and CIA Director

In the afternoon, we hear from Robert Wallace and H. Keith Melton, authors of what will be the just-released Spy Sites of Washington, DC: A Guide to the Capital Region's Secret History. A mesmerizing tour of traitors and tradecraft revealing the wheres and whys of Washington's second-oldest profession. Robert Wallace is the former director of CIA's Office of Technical Service. He and Melton have co-authored four books. Keith Melton is an intelligence historian and owns one of the largest collections of spy paraphernalia in the world.

Location: Crowne Plaza Hotel Mezzanine, 1960 Chain Bridge Rd, Tysons Corner, VA 22102. Hotel: 703 893-2100. Driving directions here or use this link: http://tinyurl.com/boey9vf  For security reason, reservations on day of event are not allowed.

REGISTER NOW.


Other Upcoming Events

EVENT CANCELED - Friday 13 January 2017 - 2 pm - DNI James R. Clapper discusses "Intelligence Challenges for the New President" at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School National Security Lecture

EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELED

Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security is a new graduate school serving the national security community
1620 L St NW, Seventh Floor, Washington, DC 20036 - OFFICE: 202-759-4988
Questions? EMAIL: events@DanielMorgan.academy

17 January 2017, 11:30am - 2 pm - The Defense Intelligence Forum hears from Daniel Gallington on "Thinking Out Loud about Information Operations."
Mr. Daniel Gallington will speak on "Thinking Out Loud about Information Operations."
Daniel Gallington is an adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Illinois College of Law, where he teaches National Security Law. He writes extensively on a wide range of national security issues, including proactive cyber security for critical infrastructures.
He served in a series of senior national security policy and legal positions: As Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Territorial Security, as bipartisan General Counsel to the United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and as Deputy Counsel for Intelligence Policy at the Department of Justice.
Mr. Gallington served for four years in Geneva as a Member of the United States Delegation to the Nuclear and Space Talks with the former Soviet Union. He also served active duty tours in Europe, Asia, the Pacific and Strategic Air Command as an Air Force officer and Judge Advocate.
Mr. Gallington received the B.S. degree from the University of Illinois, the J.D. degree from the University of Illinois College of Law and the LL.M degree in International Law from the University of Michigan Law School.
Event location: Pulcinella Restaurant, 6852 Old Dominion Dr, McLean, VA
Pay at the door with a check for $ 29 payable to DIAA, Inc. Registration starts at 11:30AM, lunch at 12:00PM
Make reservations by 17 January 2017 by email to diforum@diaalumni.org. Include names, telephone numbers, and email addresses. For each attendee, choose among Chicken Parmesan, Trout Limone, Grilled Sausage with Sweet Peppers, Lasagna, Manicotti with Spinach and Ricotta, Cannelloni Allan Bolognese, or Fettuccini with Portabella. Please send your luncheon selection with your reservation to reduce the wait time for your food. Indicate if you have dietary issues.
Pay at the door with a check for $29 per person, payable to DIAA, Inc.
Checks are preferred, but will accept cash; however, credit card payments are discouraged.

22-25 February 2017 - Baltimore, MD - The International Studies Association (ISA) 58th Annual Convention: "Understanding Change in World Politics."

The International Studies Association (ISA) 58th Annual Convention: "Understanding Change in World Politics"is a major annual academic conference which has a section of special interest to professors and students studying intelligence: the Intelligence Studies Section (ISS) which hosts many panels and presentations at the conference. Headquarters Hotel: Hilton Baltimore, Baltimore, MD.
A tentative list of the ISS panels at this ISA may be viewed here.

ISA has a new online program (requires login) that lets ISA members or event registrants to search by person, title, sponsor, and keywords. You can use this to build a personalized schedule that you can download as a PDF to have handy when you're at the convention.

For much more information visit this link.

24 February 2017, 5:30 to 7 p.m. - Washington, DC - The Changing Role of Intelligence in a Changing World - Gene Poteat presentation at The Institute of World Politics

American intelligence services, constrained by law and with oversight from the executive and both branches of Congress, are thus liable for their actions, but are not immune from politics. Rather than going along with our changing culture and politics, the problems facing our intelligence are avoided by strict vigilance and adherence to the highest professional judgements and ethics - without political considerations. This event is the fourth Brian Kelley Memorial Lecture and is sponsored by the IWP Alumni Association. About the speaker S. Eugene (Gene) Poteat is a retired senior CIA Scientific Intelligence Officer, and has served as President of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO). He was educated as an electrical engineer and physicist. He holds a Masters in Statecraft and National Security Affairs from IWP. His career in intelligence included work with U-2 and SR-71 class of aircraft and various space and naval reconnaissance systems. He also managed the CIA's worldwide network of monitoring sites. He holds patents on covert communications techniques. His CIA assignments included the Directorate of Science and Technology, the National Reconnaissance Office, Technical Director of the Navy's Special Programs Office and Executive Director of the Intelligence Research and Development Council. He served abroad in London, Scandinavia, the Middle East and Asia. He received the CIA's Medal of Merit and the National Reconnaissance Office's Meritorious Civilian Award for his technological innovations.
Location: The Institute of World Politics 1521 16th St NW, Washington, DC 20036
REGISTER HERE.

30 March - 1 April 2017 - Washington, DC - Joint Conference on "Creating and Challenging the Transatlantic Intelligence Community"

The Woodrow Wilson Center, the German Historical Institute, and the Intenational Intelligence History Association are delighted to invite you to the jointly organized conference on "Creating and Challenging the Transatlantic Intelligence Community".

Please register for the conference by email to the IIHA Executive Director at exec_director@intelligence-history.org before 23 March 2017.
The conference fee is 150 EUR / 165 US-Dollar, 110 EUR / 120 US-Dollar for IIHA members and 75 EUR / 80 US-Dollar for students.
This includes dinners on Thursday and Friday as well as coffee breaks during the conference and a snack lunch on Saturday.
Full list of Speakers and Tentative Schedule is here.

17 July - 11 August 2017 - Cambridge, UK - The International Security and Intelligence Programme and Conference at Trinity Hall, Cambridge.
This four-week summer programme, to be held at Trinity Hall, Cambridge between 17 July and 11 August, offers a unique opportunity to work with leading practitioners and academics from the security and intelligence communities in the delightful riverside setting of one of Cambridge's oldest Colleges. Chaired by Sir Richard Dearlove (formerly head of MI6, Britain's Secret Intelligence Service) and convened by Professor Michael Goodman and Dr. David Gioe, the International Security and Intelligence Programme (ISI) will consider the claims of state secrecy, the threat of nuclear proliferation, of cyber attack, of terrorism, the problems generated by the demand for regional security and the security challenges of revolutions and governing diversity. Intelligence collection, analysis of the product, and its dissemination to customers remain at the core of the intelligence cycle. Counterintelligence and covert action play more opaque but still vital roles at the heart of the nation state. Understanding these perspectives, what intelligence can achieve, but also its limitations, are major Programme and Conference themes. The panoply of threats facing Western democracies is diverse and the issues which preoccupy the highest levels of government will be discussed and analysed. With its emphasis on contemporary and future challenges and practice, ISI will appeal to those with an academic or professional interest in intelligence and contemporary threats. Uniquely, the ISI Programme will host a conference which will examine in more detail many of the key issues explored during the course. Entitled 'Security and Intelligence challenges arising from 'Brexit' and the U.S. presidential election', the two-day conference will bring together delegates from academia, politics and government agencies and be attended by all ISI participants.
More information is available at: https://thecsi.org.uk/isi/​ Or contact them at: isi@thecsi.org.uk


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