AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #02-17 dated 10 January 2017

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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Audio/Video/Websites of Interest, Call for Papers

Call for Papers

Section V - Events

Upcoming AFIO Events

Other Upcoming Events

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more... Calendar of Events 

WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors:  pjk, mh, gh, mk, rd, fm, kc, jm, mr, jg, th and fwr. They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.
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AFIO's Guide to the Study of IntelligenceAFIO's 800-page Guide to the Study of Intelligence.
Peter C. Oleson, Editor. Foreword by Dr. Robert M. Gates, former Director, CIA.
Perfect for professors, students, those considering careers in intelligence, and current/former officers seeking to see what changes are taking place across a wide spectrum of intelligence disciplines.

Read a review of The Guide by Joe Goulden, released 12 Dec in the Washington Times.

AFIO's Guide to the Study of Intelligence helps instructors teach about the large variety of subjects that make up the field of intelligence. This includes secondary school teachers of American History, Civics, or current events and undergraduate and graduate professors of History, Political Science, International Relations, Security Studies, and related topics, especially those with no or limited professional experience in the field. Even those who are former practitioners are likely to have only a limited knowledge of the very broad field of intelligence, as most spend their careers in one or two agencies at most and may have focused only on collection or analysis of intelligence or support to those activities.

The topics addressed in the Guide are not comprehensive to remain brief; however, some cover complex subjects, such as reconnaissance from space, intelligence in WWII, and the history of espionage cases. The Guide is organized into seven parts. View table of contents and names of authors here.
The price is $95, includes free Fedex shipping to a CONUS (US-based) address. AK, HI, and other US or foreign addresses should contact afio@afio.com to inquire about shipping options.

To order use this online form. Orders going to AK, HI, other US territories, or other countries call our office at 703-790-0320 or send email to afio@afio.com.

The book is also available from Amazon at this link.

     

Friday, 24 February 2017 - Tysons Corner, VA

Register for AFIO's Kick-off Luncheon for 2017

Enhanced Interrogation: Inside the Minds and Motives of the Islamic Terrorists
Trying to Destroy America
and
Spy Sites of Washington, DC

REGISTER NOW.

Morning Speaker...

Dr. James E. Mitchell was a civilian contractor who spent years training US military members to resist interrogation should they be captured. Aware of the urgent need to prevent impending catastrophic terrorist attacks, he worked with the CIA to implement "enhanced interrogation techniques"--which included waterboarding. Despite the media hysteria that followed, he tells us why EIT remains valuable. Mitchell's co-author, Bill Harlow, will be present but not a presenter.

Afternoon Speakers...

Robert Wallace and H. Keith Melton, authors of what will be the just-released Spy Sites of Washington, DC: A Guide to the Capital Region's Secret History. A mesmerizing tour of traitors and tradecraft revealing the wheres and whys of Washington's second-oldest profession. Robert Wallace is the former director of CIA's Office of Technical Service. He and Melton have co-authored four books. Keith Melton is an intelligence historian and owns one of the largest collections of spy paraphernalia in the world.

"Emotions are high and accusations are being thrown about, but facts matter. Before anyone rushes to judgment, they should read this book and take in what happened through the eyes of a key player in the CIA's interrogation program." -- General Michael Hayden, USAF, Ret., Former CIA Director

"The authentic account of head-to-head hardball with fanatical Islamic killers by a professional who not only won big for America, but did it while fending off powerful critics. The lessons learned needed to be told -- and well-told they are. The war on us by radical Islamists is far from over -- read and learn!"
-- Hon. Porter J. Goss, Former Chairman of House Intelligence Committee and CIA Director

Location: Crowne Plaza Hotel Mezzanine, 1960 Chain Bridge Rd, Tysons Corner, VA 22102. Hotel: 703 893-2100. Driving directions here or use this link: http://tinyurl.com/boey9vf  For security reason, reservations on day of event are not allowed.

REGISTER NOW.


Book of the Week:

Harding - A Very Expensive PoisonA Very Expensive Poison:
The Assassination of Alexander Litvinenko and Putin's War with the West
by Luke Harding
(Vintage; Jan 2017)

Available 24 January.

"A Very Expensive Poison reads like a John Le Carré spy novel, but shockingly it's all true. Luke Harding has followed the criminality of the Putin regime from Russia to the West and his story leaves us with terrible feeling of dread about what Putin will do next." -- Bill Browder, author of Red Notice

On 1 November 2006, journalist and Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko was poisoned in London. He died twenty-two days later. The cause of death? Polonium - a rare, lethal, and highly radioactive substance. Here Luke Harding unspools a real-life political assassination story - involving the KGB, CIA, MI6, and Russian mob. He shows how Litvinenko's murder foreshadowed the killings of other Kremlin critics, from Washington, DC, to Moscow, and how these are tied to Russia's current misadventures in Ukraine and Syria. In doing so, he becomes a target himself and unearths a chain of corruption and death leading straight to Vladimir Putin. From his investigations of the downing of flight MH17 to the Panama Papers, Harding sheds a klieg light on Russia's fracturing relationship with the West.

"Drawing on interviews, original reportage, and a British public inquiry, Harding reiterates the inquiry's findings: Litvinenko was the victim of a political assassination that was indistinguishable from a gangland hit. . . . Harding suitably conveys the shocking, violent, and tragic story of a man whose murder has gone unpunished." --Publishers Weekly (Starred Review)

"A chilling look at the Putin regime's murderous suppression of its critics. . . . In this fast-paced book, Harding, who was expelled from the Kremlin while serving as the Guardian's Moscow bureau chief, covers all the bases while exposing the weakness and accommodationism of the now-departed British leadership. Hard-hitting and timely given Russia's continued sway in international politics as well as its documented influence over an incoming American administration that is also hostile to the press." -- Kirkus

"Extraordinarily pacy...one of the best political thrillers I have come across in years." - The Evening Standard

"Harding...tells this ghastly tale with real authority, wit, and panache. . . . The book is as 'definitive' as it claims." - The Times

The book may be preordered here.


DMGS has notified us that the Clapper EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELED
DNI James R. Clapper intended to discuss

"Intelligence Challenges for the New President"
Friday 13 January 2017 at 2 p.m.
at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School National Security Lecture

EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELED

Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security is a new graduate school serving the national security community
1620 L St NW, Seventh Floor, Washington, DC 20036 - OFFICE: 202-759-4988
Questions? EMAIL: events@DanielMorgan.academy


Intelligence Studies Section on
Understanding Change in World Politics

22-25 February 2017

Headquarters Hotel: Hilton Baltimore
- Baltimore, MD -

The International Studies Association (ISA)
58th Annual Convention: "Understanding Change in World Politics."

This major annual academic event has a section of special interest to professors and students studying intelligence: the Intelligence Studies Section (ISS) which hosts many panels and presentations at the conference.
A tentative list of the ISS panels at this ISA may be viewed here.

ISA has a new online program (requires login) that lets ISA members or event registrants to search by person, title, sponsor, and keywords. You can use this to build a personalized schedule that you can download as a PDF to have handy when you're at the convention.

For much more information visit this link.
- - - -

  • Also see the large March 30 Joint Conference at the Wilson Center and other venues on "Creating and Challenging the Transatlantic Intelligence Community" announced in this issue.


Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

FBI: Accused Spy Has 'Vital' Intelligence on China.  In the nation's first legal challenge of Chinese procurement of American nuclear know-how, the government has scored a victory in procuring the cooperation of the engineer prosecutors say was an operative for China, federal court records show.

According to a docket entry, Szuhsiung "Allen" Ho is scheduled to plead guilty Friday in US District Court in the nation's first case of nuclear espionage involving China. The plea deal itself has not yet been filed.

But a stack of documents already filed in the case suggest Ho's plea is considered key to gathering intelligence on the inner workings of China's nuclear program - both the one used to power homes and the one to make war - in a case in which the Chinese government refuses to even acknowledge the indictment of its own nuclear power company.

Ho is charged in US District Court in Knoxville, Tenn., with plotting to develop special nuclear material illegally outside the United States.  [Read More:  Statterfield/USAToday/4January2017]

NSA Seeks Pay Bump for Its ‘High-End, Exquisite Civilian Talent'.  NSA Director Michael Rogers recently authorized the introduction of a specially tailored compensation package for the spy agency’s "high-end" cybersecurity workers.

Rogers discussed the move during a public Senate Armed Services Committee hearing Thursday where the topic of discussion focused on the intelligence community’s investigations surrounding Russian interference in the US presidential election.

Asked about the NSA’s and US Cyber Command’s ability to recruit and retain talent, Rogers - who heads both organizations - said that he’s less worried about filling military positions than civilian posts.

"In the military aspect we are exceeding both our recruiting and retention expectation," said Rogers, "my immediate concern is a little less on the uniform side in part because if money were a primary driver for them then they wouldn’t have come to us in the first place."  [Read More:  Bing/Cyberscoop/6January2017]

US Intelligence Chiefs Testify on Cyberthreats to Nation.  The US government has no cohesive or detailed retaliatory response to the increasing number of cyber attacks against national interests and security, a shortcoming that top US intelligence leaders said disrupts the development of a deterrence framework.

The government struggles to effectively derail nation-states and cyber intruders that repeatedly have highlighted US vulnerabilities in a string of notorious incidents, officials testified Thursday at a Senate committee hearing on foreign cyberthreats to the United States.

While much of the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing focused on Russia’s interference during the US presidential electoral process, lawmakers and panelists highlighted other notable breaches to underline the limitations, including China’s breach of the Office of Personnel Management that exfiltrated the sensitive records of 22 million federal employees and North Korea’s hack of Sony Pictures Entertainment emails.

The lack of retaliation - at least as far as the public is aware - undermines US credibility to stave off future intrusions, lawmakers offered during the hearing.  [Read More:  Jontz/afcea.org/5January/2017]

Iran Planned Terror Attacks Against Israel Advocates in Germany.  Iran’s intelligence agency allegedly planned terrorist attacks against organizations and representatives engaged in pro-Israel work in Germany, according to German media reports citing the country’s federal prosecutor released on Friday.

Syed Mustafa H., a 31-year-old Pakistani who worked for the German Aerospace Center in Bremen, was indicted on Monday for alleged espionage.

West German Broadcasting (WDR) reported Iran’s intelligence agency’s goal was to assassinate the former president of the German-Israel friendship society, Reinhold Robbe. From 1994 to 2005, Robbe served as a Social Democratic Party deputy in the Bundestag. He later served as the parliamentary commissioner for the armed forces in the Bundestag.

Iran’s targeting of a German politician is the first reported case of an Iranian intelligence operation working to assassinate a government representative in the Federal Republic. Journalist Georg Heil, who wrote the WDR article, reported that Mustafa also spied on a French-Israeli professor at a business college in Paris.  [Read More:  Weinthal/FoxNews/7January2017]

10 Foreign Terrorists Hiding in PH - ‘Bato’. At least five to ten foreign terrorists have sought refuge in the country, the chief of the Philippine National Police (PNP) disclosed on Monday.

Director General Ronald "Bato" dela Rosa told a news briefing in Camp Crame in Quezon City that these foreign terrorists are of different nationalities.

"I cannot give you the exact figure but as far as police intelligence is concerned we are monitoring at least five to ten of different nationalities," dela Rosa said.

He admitted that Filipino intelligence operatives are having a hard time looking for the Malay-looking terrorists.  [Read More:  Vargas/ManilaTimes/9January2017]

British Intelligence Wants More Cyber Security for Financial Services.  Intelligence agencies in Britain need to take more action to assist regulators in protecting financial service companies from data breaches, said the chief of a parliamentary committee.

Conservative Party lawmaker Andrew Tyrie said that the Treasury Committee expressed concern over the "opaque lines of accountability", especially between intelligence parties and regulators.

He added that although financial regulators report to Treasury, GCHQ, Britain’s security agency is accountable to the foreign minister and this might not always be their biggest priority.

He said:  "It is essential that the intelligence community gives the regulators the technical and practical support they need to do their job. This means making sure that financial cyber crime has a high priority, and is not subordinate to other work".  [Read More:  Acumin/3January2017]

Man Arrested in Shooting of American Consular Official in Guadalajara.  Attorney general in the state of Jalisco, where Guadalajara is located, confirms ‘detention of the aggressor’, whom a source says is a US citizen of Indian origin.

American and Mexican authorities have arrested the man believed to be responsible for the nonfatal shooting of an American consular official in the western city of Guadalajara.

"The detention of the aggressor against the consular agent has been achieved," said Eduardo Almaguer, attorney general in the state of Jalisco, where Guadalajara is located, on Sunday morning. "The suspect has been handed over to Mexico’s federal attorney general’s office."

The federal attorney general’s office announced on Sunday evening that the alleged perpetrator of this "sly and cowardly attack" was a US citizen who "will be expelled and repatriated in the United States of America where his judicial situation will be determined."  [Read More:  Tucker/TheGuardian/8January2017]

DOE Warns of Potentially ‘Imminent’ Cyberattack on Power Grid.  Infrastructure used to deliver electricity to US homes, hospitals and businesses is in "imminent danger" of cyberattacks, the Energy Department warns in a massive new report.

While advancements in energy grid technology have allowed for a more dynamic, reliable and efficient system to provide energy, it has also simultaneously resulted in greater integration of existing networks, the Energy Department noted in broad terms. Because of this integration, security needs to improve, the agency said in its Quadrennial Energy Review. Most of the energy grid is owned and operated by private companies.

"As transmission and distribution system design and operations become more data intensive, complex and interconnected, the demand for visibility across the continuum of electricity delivery has expanded," reads the 494-page report, released Friday.  "The current cybersecurity landscape is characterized by rapidly evolving threats and vulnerabilities, juxtaposed against the slower-moving deployment of defense measures."

A power outage caused by a successful future cyberattack could undermine "critical defense infrastructure," damage the economy and place at risk the safety of US citizens, according to the Energy Department.  [Read More:  Bing/Cyberscoop/9January2017]

Man to Plead Guilty to Hacking CIA Head.  A North Carolina man accused of hacking the personal email account of CIA Director John Brennan is set to plead guilty Friday, Politico reported.

Justin Liverman, known as "D3F4ULT" on the internet, is also accused of hacking the emails of numerous other government officials.

Liverman will appear in front of a federal judge in Alexandria, Va., where he is expected to plead guilty to conspiring to violate the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act.

The government has accused Liverman of being a part of a hacker group called "Crackas with Attitude" that allegedly passed hacked information to WikiLeaks.  [Read more:  Vladamirov/TheHill/6December2017]

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

The Spy With No Name.  In 1977, Johanna van Haarlem finally tracked down the son, Erwin, she had abandoned as a baby 33 years earlier. She immediately travelled to London to meet him. What followed, writes Jeff Maysh, is an unbelievable story of deception and heartbreak.

It was a cold Saturday morning in April 1988 when a van full of detectives arrived outside the North London home of Erwin van Haarlem. The self-employed art dealer, 44, lived alone in sleepy Friern Barnet, a smattering of brick homes beside the grim North Circular ring road.

The Dutchman's apartment building on Silver Birch Close had become the centre of an investigation led by the British intelligence agency MI5. It suspected that Van Haarlem - whom neighbours described as an "oddball" - was not in the art business at all, but a sinister foreign agent.

Inside, Van Haarlem was hunched over a radio in his kitchen. He was still wearing his pyjamas, but his hair was parted neatly to one side. He was tuned in, as he was every morning, to a mysterious "number station". In his earpiece, a female voice recited numbers in Czech, followed by the blip-bleep of Morse code.  [Read More:  BBCNews/4January2017]

Spies: Channel 4 Reality Show Tasks Ordinary People With Special Missions.  Ever found yourself watching James Bond or Spooks and thinking, I’d give that a go?

Channel 4’s new series Spies is the one for you - a show which attempts to recruit ordinary people and test out their espionage skills.

The show comes from the makers of SAS: Who Dares Wins, and comes off similar to the ‘what-if-this-was-you?’ thrills of Hunted.

The applicants are put through their paces by ‘Control’ - a formidable trio of pro spies.  [Read More:  Travis/Standard/5January2017]

A Taste of Armageddon (Part 1).  In February 1969, the two largest rockets in the Soviet Union’s stable of launch vehicles - the Proton and the N-1- both blew up in the skies over the Baikonur launch range within a couple of days of each other. Both launches were associated with the Soviet Union’s lunar program, a subject of intense interest for the United States intelligence community. But, for decades, the intelligence community was unaware of either explosion. Now newly declassified information indicates that American intelligence assets were expecting a Soviet space launch in February and even associated it with the Soviet lunar program. They mistakenly assumed that a single launch had been planned and then canceled, but analysts also acknowledged that it was possible that a launch failure had occurred. The declassified records imply that analysts knew that something very important had happened in the last part of February, but its exact nature eluded them.

By early 1969 a big part of the Moon race was won. Apollo 8 had circled the Moon, beating the Soviet Union there. Based upon their access to top secret intelligence reports, senior NASA leaders knew that the Soviet effort to land cosmonauts on the Moon was also significantly behind the United States. (See: "Dagger of the mind", The Space Review, December 19, 2016) American reconnaissance satellites had spotted what intelligence analysts believed to be the large Soviet Moon launcher, which the CIA had designated the "J vehicle," - or, more colloquially, "the J bird" - at its launch pad at Baikonur, which the US intelligence community then referred to as "Tyuratam."  But it had not launched by the time that Apollo 8 had carried astronauts around the Moon. The Soviets had also failed to make their Zond circumlunar program operational, although American intelligence analysts suspected that the Soviets would keep trying. The only way that the Soviets could now beat NASA to a Moon landing was if NASA stumbled badly, perhaps by losing a mission and a crew, and if the Soviets ran a flawless program.

American intelligence assets kept a focus on Soviet space activities, and American intelligence analysts pieced together multiple sources of information to discern what the Soviets were up to.  [Read More:  VickandDay/TheSpaceReview/3January2017]

655th ISRG Citizen Airmen Pave Way for DOD Intelligence Operations.  Since standing up in 2012, the 655th Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Group has come a long way in its growth and continues to pave the way for future Air Force intelligence initiatives.

The 655th ISR Group is an independent group under 10th Air Force that ensures the training and readiness of Air Force Reserve Command intelligence squadrons engaged in multiple diverse and complex intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance mission sets.

Stood up Oct. 1, 2012 here at Wright-Patterson as Detachment 2, 10th Air Force, with just 38 people, the 655th ISR Group has grown from being a detachment and now consists of 14 classic associate unit intelligence squadrons spanning across seven states conducting 13 different missions with more than 1,000 people and an FY16 economic impact of $68 million among all 14 squadrons across the country.

The 655th supports Air Combat Command; Air Force Materiel Command; Air Force Special Operations Command; National Air and Space Intelligence Center; Defense Intelligence Agency; National Security Agency; and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency with classic associate intelligence squadrons embedded and working daily with their active duty counterparts to further the intelligence capabilities of the US Air Force.  [Read More:  Ripple/AirForce/3January2017]

Declassified: How India Tracked Pakistan’s Development of a Nuclear Device.  Today, South Asia’s fragile nuclear peace risks insolvency, with both India and Pakistan armed with expansive nuclear arsenals. Moreover, given their mutual rivalry, the prospect of limited nuclear exchange continues to loom large in the region. India’s deterrent strategy accounts for a two-front nuclear exchange with both China and Pakistan. How Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine merges into its strategic identity remains an open question. When Kenneth Waltz wrote of the "spread" of nuclear weapons rather than their "proliferation" in 1981, Pakistan was yet to count itself among nuclear weapon states.

Making deterrence work amid nation-state rivalry counts on the ability of the respective intelligence communities of nuclear states to constantly attenuate uncertainty about their rival’s present as well as prospective nuclear arsenal and doctrine. Today, both India and Pakistan continue to deploy considerable intelligence resources to track the other’s nuclear arsenal.

India, for instance, has taken a keen interest in Pakistan’s pursuit of a nuclear device going back to the 1970s and even earlier. Based on newly declassified Indian documentation I was able to access, what follows is an account of what Indian external intelligence knew about Pakistan’s intentions between the 1970s leading up to the 1990s - the decade that would end with both countries coming out as the world’s sixth and seventh declared nuclear powers.

For Indian intelligence in the 1970s, the focus in Pakistan was about its reprocessing capacity and centrifuges. This shifted in the 1980s to focus on the capability to produce an explosive device, and, finally, in the 1990s, focused on the nascent Pakistani missile program routed through China, which was eventually outsourced by China to North Korea.  [Read More:  Prahladan/TheDiplomat/6January2017]

Slipping ‘Behind Enemy Lines,’ Petite Jewish Spy Got Key Intelligence on Nazi Maneuvers.  Marthe Cohn was crossing a field covered with ankle-deep snow. She was alone. There was no moon and she had no compass, no flashlight, nothing written down. As a French Jew, she had enlisted in the army to help defeat the Nazis. Her mission was to cross the border that night, Feb. 4, 1945, enter the village of Gundolsheim, mix with the German soldiers, assess their strength, and follow them as they retreated.

She couldn’t see anything but the light of tracer fire, with German bullets whizzing above her head. She could hear voices and barking dogs. As she stumbled through the darkness, the voices became fainter, and suddenly she plunged into a canal. She struggled to get out of the icy water, but calling for help would alert her enemies. Finally, tufts of grass gave her leverage to climb out. Drenched and freezing, she tried to squeeze water from her clothes. She wanted to give up, lie down and sleep, but she knew that meant death. She forced herself to keep walking.

As dawn approached she could see her footprints in the snow. She had been walking in circles all night. By then the Germans were gone, retreating to the east. She was bitterly disappointed to realize this mission was just another of many failed attempts.

It would be on her 15th attempt that Cohn would infiltrate Nazi Germany as a spy and obtain priceless information.  [Read More:  Cohen/AZJewishPost/6January/2017]

9 Things You Need to Know About the Intelligence Community's Russian Hacking Report.  On Thursday, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on foreign cyber threats directed against the United States. In effect, the bulk of the hearing focused on the Russian Federation.

Senator John McCain (R-AZ), the chairman of the Armed Services Committee, called for the public hearing in anticipation of the intelligence community's publication of a comprehensive report on Russian hacking activities next week.

While some information will remain classified, the CIA, NSA, and other agencies have assured the public that they will release as much information as possible about Russia's role in interfering with the US election despite the fact that the redacted material may not "be completely persuasive to everyone."

Here's what the intelligence community has revealed so far:  [Read more:  Yasmeh/DailyWire/5January2017]

Former CIA Agent John Nixon Reveals What It Was Like to Interrogate Saddam Hussein.  After studying him for five years for the CIA, John Nixon was the agent chosen to interrogate Saddam Hussein when the ex-Iraqi president was captured by American troops in December 2003.

Now, in an interview with the BBC to promote his book Debriefing the President: The Interrogation of Saddam Hussein, Nixon has revealed what it was like to get inside the mind of a world famous war criminal.

Hussein was renowned for having body doubles, so the former CIA agent's first job was to identify him - but it didn't take long.

"There was no doubt in my mind as soon as I saw him, that it was him," he told the Victoria Derbyshire show in a Skype interview from Washington DC. "When I started talking to him, he gave me the same look he had on a book that had sat on my desk for years. Surreal doesn't come close."  [Read more:  Kanter/BusinessInsider/5January2016]

Section III - COMMENTARY

Trump's New Intelligence.  The question is not whether Russian hacking handed you your office, President-elect Donald Trump, but that the Russians tried to interfere at all, and why. It would appear that they did.

Your expressed doubts in recent weeks point to a troubling problem. As president, you will get much of your information on what happens outside our borders from the intelligence community; you will have to accept most of its analyses; other sources are not as capable, and nobody's native intelligence is superior to the work of dozens of analysts who have spent decades studying the fine details of the behavior of our adversaries.

The intelligence analysts responsible for the Iraq War after 9/11 are not the same people responsible for concluding that the Russian government directed the hacking of the Democratic National Committee and other American organizations, despite your attempts to conflate the two. Most of those people have moved to other jobs or retired; some have died. Additionally, most of the intelligence community back in 2001 did not get it wrong. The relevant agencies, for the most part, understood that Saddam Hussein had not encouraged al-Qaeda to attack the United States, and were equally certain that Iraq did not have continuing efforts to develop or produce nuclear arms.

In 2002, I was chief scientist of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee under then-Sen. Joseph Biden, and my clearances allowed me to read information just a little bit less sensitive in the nuclear area than what President George W. Bush got in the President's Daily Brief. I also had extensive contacts in our nuclear community, and within the United Nations inspection teams. Overall, I had a comprehensive view of Iraq's weapons programs. No information suggesting that Iraq had a nuclear program reached my desk.  [Read More:  Zimmerman/USNews/9January/2017]

Why Trust is Essential Between the President and Intelligence Community.  President-elect Donald Trump has routinely taken a skeptical stance toward the US intelligence community. As the release nears of a report on alleged Russian hacking in the US election, Judy Woodruff gets views from James Woolsey, senior advisor to the Trump Transition and a former CIA director, and Jeffrey Smith, former general counsel to the CIA.  [Read More:  PBSNewsHour/4January/2017]

Section IV - Audio/Video/Websites of Interest, Call for Papers

Radio Interview with incoming board member the Hon. Michael J. Rogers on his radio program with AFIO Board Member John MacGaffin discussing Homeland, CIA, FBI, and Putin.

Interview may be accessed here. John MacGaffin is technical advisor for the Showtime TV series Homeland. Mike Rogers was former director of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. He left congress in 2014, has a radio program, and serves on many boards. [View Interview:  Beckmann/Audioboom.com/4January/2017]

PBS Hosts Exit Interview of Director of CIA John Brennan. View video here.

Website Lists "99 of the Best Intelligence Sources of the Web." AFIO is one. Also includes blogs and sites from all over the spectrum including Analytical Tradecraft, Intelligence, Security, SIGINT and Foreign Policy. View listing here.

Call for Professors and Graduate Students in Intelligence & Foreign Policy 20 January 2017 is the deadline for Professors or Graduate Students to apply for Cambridge University's 2017 SHAFR (Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations) Summer Institute Conference to be held 3 - 7 July at Clare College (UK).

"Security and the State: Cultures of National Security and Insecurity in American Foreign Relations" - the theme of Cambridge University's SHAFR Summer Institute Conference being held 3-7 July at Clare College.

The term "national security" is everywhere. It permeates virtually every aspect of U.S. foreign relations and defines much of the federal government's structure for foreign and military policies. It is no exaggeration to say that America's relationship with the rest of the world is to a large extent based upon the requirements of national security, and how they are defined, represented, and narrated to the public. At its heart, and in an instinctual way, "national security" connotes safety: its goal is the defense of the nation against foreign threats. Though the pursuit of national security often leads to difficult and controversial wars, it is essentially based on a defensive and fearful mindset. It is also so expansive as to be virtually limitless. For the last several decades, threats to America's national security have been found everywhere, from the beaches of Cuba and the jungles of Indochina to the deserts of Arabia and the mountains of Central Asia—even in the towns and cities of the United States itself. Under the aegis of national security, America has a defensive perimeter that is now both global and holistic. Few of its interests are peripheral.
But where does such a worldview come from? How do Americans conceive of threat and danger in the world? What constitutes the boundaries, legally, politically, geographically, and morally, of self-defense? Have Americans always thought of national security in these terms? We will also delve into questions about the influence national security has had on shaping the government's capacity to project power. If war made the state and the state made war in Europe, was it also the case for the modern United States? How have perspectives on national security led to the augmentation of executive war powers? Have security concerns led to the establishment of a national security state or a military-industrial complex which, in turn, shaped America's engagement with the wider world?
The cultures of American national security and insecurity will be at the heart of the 10th annual Summer Institute of the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations, which will take place July 3-7, 2017 at Clare College, Cambridge University. Designed for advanced graduate students and early-career faculty members in history and related fields, the program will feature seminar-style discussions and meetings with leading scholars. The Summer Institute will also provide a forum for participants to present their research and participate in workshops on professional development, teaching, and publishing. Each participant will be reimbursed for return travel to Britain, will be provided with free accommodation and most meals in Cambridge, and will receive a modest honorarium.
The deadline for applications is January 20, 2017. Applicants should submit a c.v.; a brief letter detailing how participation in this year's Summer Institute would benefit their scholarship and careers; a short (300 word) abstract about the research project they will present at the Institute; and a letter of recommendation, ideally from their dissertation adviser. Please send this material electronically (in Word or PDF) to both of the Institute's organizers, Andrew Preston, Cambridge University and Mario Del Pero, Sciences Po-Paris; references should be sent directly by the referee. Please direct all questions to the Institute organizers. More information here.


Section V - Events

AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

12 January 2017 (Thursday) - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO Andre LeGallo Chapter hosts Special Agent in Charge, John F. Bennett, FBI San Francisco Office.
Location: Basque Cultural Center, 599 Railroad Ave, South San Francisco, CA 94080. 11:30am no host cocktail; meeting and luncheon at noon. Eventbrite registration link is here.

Reservation and pre-payment is required before January 4, 2017. The venue cannot accommodate walk-ins.
Please contact Mariko Kawaguchi, Board Secretary at afiosf@aol.com or Mariko Kawaguchi, c/o AFIO, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011 for questions.

Thursday, 19 January 2017, 11:30am - Monument, CO - The AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter presents Radicalization, Ideology, and Terrorism in the Middle East.
The presentation will focus on radical ideology in the Middle East and its nexus to terrorism, to include an understanding of radical Islam, sectarian divisions, Shari'a law, the ideology of Jihad in Islam and global influence, regional control of the Islamic State in Iraq and Al Shaam (ISIS), and recent terror attacks in Europe. It will also include how propaganda, social media and non- traditional forms of messaging are influencing the next generation of terrorists, specifically women. The cost of the meal is $15. All presentations to the RMC, AFIO are on the basis of non-attribution so the speakers can feel free to provide information with the assurance it will not be published.
For details, please contact Tom VanWormer at robsmom@pcisys.net

Sunday, 29 January 2017, 11:30am - 1:30pm - Lyndhurst, OH - AFIO Great Lakes Chapter hosts Derek Siegle, HIDTA, on "The Responsibilities of the High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area Program."

Derek M. Siegle is the Executive Director of HIDTA (High Intensity Drug Trafficking Area) Program which is a Federal Agency that coordinates and assists in law enforcement drug investigations. It is staffed by law enforcement officers detached from the FBI and other law enforcement agencies. His talk will cover the responsibilities of HIDTA.
Derek was the ASAC (Assistant Special Agent in Charge) of the FBI's Cleveland Division prior to assuming his present position.
Location: Private Room, Bar Louie, in Legacy Village, 24337 Cedar Rd, Lyndhurst, OH 44124. Food may be ordered off menu so arrive hungry as the room is provided with understanding it is a restaurant.
RSVP to John Heinsons at hp34063@yahoo.com.

Friday 10 February 2017, 12:30 - 2pm - Los Angeles, CA - The AFIO Los Angeles Chapter hears from John Hallstead and conducts elections and other business

Presentation: John Hallstead will give a brief intelligence topic overview, following the election & business portion of the meeting.
Lunch will be served
Location: L.A.P.D - ARTC 5651 W Manchester Ave, Los Angeles, CA 90045
RSVP: AFIO_LA@yahoo.com

Saturday, 11 February 2017, 11 am to 3 pm - Orange Park, FL - AFIO North Florida Chapter hosts first meeting of 2017

Location: Country Club of Orange Park. Never too early to get your RSVPs to Quiel, either via qbegonia@comcast.net or give him a call at (904) 545-9549. Please try to RSVP on/before the 1st of February so we can lock down attendance to keep the club happy. Remember, as always, kin or friends, especially potential members, are always welcome. Awaiting confirmation of a guest speaker, but hope the newsletter will be published in just a couple of weeks, just about inauguration day!

Saturday, 11 February 2017 - 11:30 - Patrick AFB, FL - The Florida Satellite Chapter hosts Dr. Clifford Bragdon on "Transportation Security for Global Survival."

Dr. Clifford Bragdon, AICP, FASA, founder and president of the Global Center for Preparedness and Resilience, has over 40 years of academic experience, research and consulting in the fields of urban planning, sustainability and transportation, homeland security and simulation. He will address us on the topic of Transportation Security for Global Survival.
TIMING: 11:30 AM - 12:15 PM: Social Hour, greet old, new members and guests (limited cash bar – honor system); 12:15 PM: Sit-Down lunch
FEE: Member and spouse: $25; Non-Members/Guest:$28; Student and active duty military: $22
TO ATTEND: Prepaid reservations are required which must be received by Friday, 3 February. Register at www.afiofsc.com or send check and meal choice [salmon, chicken, or beef] by contacting FSC Chapter President at afiofsc@afio.com
LOCATION: Please note new meeting venue. The Tides, 1001 N. Hwy A1A, Bldg #967, Patrick AFB, FL 32925.

24 February 2017 - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO National Kick-off Luncheon for 2017 - Enhanced Interrogation: Inside the Minds and Motives of the Islamic Terrorists Trying To Destroy America, and Spy Sites of Washington

AFIO National's first luncheon of 2017 features Dr. James E. Mitchell discussing Enhanced Interrogation: Inside the Minds and Motives of the Islamic Terrorists Trying To Destroy America. Mitchell was a civilian contractor who spent years training US military members to resist interrogation should they be captured. Aware of the urgent need to prevent impending catastrophic terrorist attacks, he worked with the CIA to implement "enhanced interrogation techniques"--which included waterboarding. Despite the media hysteria that followed, he tells us why EIT remains valuable. Mitchell's co-author, Bill Harlow, will be present but not a presenter.

"Emotions are high and accusations are being thrown about, but facts matter. Before anyone rushes to judgment, they should read this book and take in what happened through the eyes of a key player in the CIA's interrogation program." -- General Michael Hayden, USAF, Ret., Former CIA Director

"The authentic account of head-to-head hardball with fanatical Islamic killers by a professional who not only won big for America, but did it while fending off powerful critics. The lessons learned needed to be told -- and well-told they are. The war on us by radical Islamists is far from over -- read and learn!"
-- Hon. Porter J. Goss, Former Chairman of House Intelligence Committee and CIA Director

In the afternoon, we hear from Robert Wallace and H. Keith Melton, authors of what will be the just-released Spy Sites of Washington, DC: A Guide to the Capital Region's Secret History. A mesmerizing tour of traitors and tradecraft revealing the wheres and whys of Washington's second-oldest profession. Robert Wallace is the former director of CIA's Office of Technical Service. He and Melton have co-authored four books. Keith Melton is an intelligence historian and owns one of the largest collections of spy paraphernalia in the world.

Location: Crowne Plaza Hotel Mezzanine, 1960 Chain Bridge Rd, Tysons Corner, VA 22102. Hotel: 703 893-2100. Driving directions here or use this link: http://tinyurl.com/boey9vf  For security reason, reservations on day of event are not allowed.

REGISTER NOW.


Other Upcoming Events

11 January 2017, noon - Washington, DC - GTEC Update at the International Spy Museum

The latest intelligence and terrorism news presented by David Major, retired Supervisory Special Agent of the FBI and former Director of Counterintelligence and Security Programs at the NSC staff at the White House. He discusses the hottest intelligence and security issues, breaches, and penetrations.

Check www.spymuseum.org to confirm.

Thursday, 12 January 2017, 6:30 p.m. - Washington, DC - The Gentleman from Ohio with Lori Stokes at the International Spy Museum

Congressman Louis Stokes arrived in the House of Representatives in 1969 when there were only six African Americans serving. 30 years later he had chaired the House Select Committee on the Kennedy and King assassinations, the House Ethics Committee during Abscam, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence during Iran-Contra. Stokes was instrumental in the development of the International Spy Museum and was an Advisory Board Member until his death in August 2015. This evening his daughter, Lori Stokes, anchor of Eyewitness News This Morning, shares memories of her father inspired by the autobiography he completed at age 90: The Gentleman from Ohio.

Free. Advanced registration requested. To register, visit http://www.spymuseum.org/stokes

EVENT CANCELED - Friday 13 January 2017 - 2 pm - DNI James R. Clapper discusses "Intelligence Challenges for the New President" at the Daniel Morgan Graduate School National Security Lecture

EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELED

Daniel Morgan Graduate School of National Security is a new graduate school serving the national security community
1620 L St NW, Seventh Floor, Washington, DC 20036 - OFFICE: 202-759-4988
Questions? EMAIL: events@DanielMorgan.academy

17 January 2017, 11:30am - 2 pm - The Defense Intelligence Forum hears from Daniel Gallington on "Thinking Out Loud about Information Operations."
Mr. Daniel Gallington will speak on "Thinking Out Loud about Information Operations."
Daniel Gallington is an adjunct Professor of Law at the University of Illinois College of Law, where he teaches National Security Law. He writes extensively on a wide range of national security issues, including proactive cyber security for critical infrastructures.
He served in a series of senior national security policy and legal positions: As Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Territorial Security, as bipartisan General Counsel to the United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and as Deputy Counsel for Intelligence Policy at the Department of Justice.
Mr. Gallington served for four years in Geneva as a Member of the United States Delegation to the Nuclear and Space Talks with the former Soviet Union. He also served active duty tours in Europe, Asia, the Pacific and Strategic Air Command as an Air Force officer and Judge Advocate.
Mr. Gallington received the B.S. degree from the University of Illinois, the J.D. degree from the University of Illinois College of Law and the LL.M degree in International Law from the University of Michigan Law School.
Event location: Pulcinella Restaurant, 6852 Old Dominion Dr, McLean, VA
Pay at the door with a check for $ 29 payable to DIAA, Inc. Registration starts at 11:30AM, lunch at 12:00PM
Make reservations by 17 January 2017 by email to diforum@diaalumni.org. Include names, telephone numbers, and email addresses. For each attendee, choose among Chicken Parmesan, Trout Limone, Grilled Sausage with Sweet Peppers, Lasagna, Manicotti with Spinach and Ricotta, Cannelloni Allan Bolognese, or Fettuccini with Portabella. Please send your luncheon selection with your reservation to reduce the wait time for your food. Indicate if you have dietary issues.
Pay at the door with a check for $29 per person, payable to DIAA, Inc.
Checks are preferred, but will accept cash; however, credit card payments are discouraged.

Wednesday, 18 January 2017, noon - Washington, DC - Debriefing the President at the International Spy Museum

In December 2003, after one of the most aggressive manhunts in history, US military forces captured Iraqi present Saddam Hussein. Beset by body-double rumors and false alarms, the Bush administration needed positive identification of the prisoner before announcing the capture. John Nixon made the call. As a senior CIA leadership analyst who had spent years studying Hussein and the first man to conduct a prolonged interrogation of the dictator, Nixon offers expert insight into America's most enigmatic enemy in Debrief the President.

Free. No reservation required.

Wednesday, 25 January 2017, 7 - 9 pm - Washington, DC - Introduction To Intelligence Analysis 101 - Spy School Workshop at the International Spy Museum

How good are you in a crisis? To survive in the world of an intelligence analyst, you must be able to quickly gather the facts, determine what is relevant, find patterns, make critical connections, and you must not forget to check your ego and biases at the door. That's what you'll need to do in this hands-on workshop led by Randy Pherson, the CIA's former National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America, recipient of the CIA's Career Intelligence Medal and founder of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. As you grapple with a real intelligence case about a U.S. nuclear scientist who may have transferred secrets to the Chinese to assist in the development of their nuclear program, you'll go through the same process as an intelligence analyst, evaluating incoming information and questioning your own preconceptions and assumptions under a looming deadline. Learn how analysts employ Structured Analytic Techniques to avoid cognitive pitfalls and spur creative thinking. And ultimately find out whether your analysis would have helped to defuse a crisis or fuel a foreign policy disaster. Tickets for the general public: $40. Register at www.spymuseum.org

22-25 February 2017 - Baltimore, MD - The International Studies Association (ISA) 58th Annual Convention: "Understanding Change in World Politics."

The International Studies Association (ISA) 58th Annual Convention: "Understanding Change in World Politics"is a major annual academic conference which has a section of special interest to professors and students studying intelligence: the Intelligence Studies Section (ISS) which hosts many panels and presentations at the conference. Headquarters Hotel: Hilton Baltimore, Baltimore, MD.
A tentative list of the ISS panels at this ISA may be viewed here.

ISA has a new online program (requires login) that lets ISA members or event registrants to search by person, title, sponsor, and keywords. You can use this to build a personalized schedule that you can download as a PDF to have handy when you're at the convention.

For much more information visit this link.

24 February 2017, 5:30 to 7 p.m. - Washington, DC - The Changing Role of Intelligence in a Changing World - Gene Poteat presentation at The Institute of World Politics

American intelligence services, constrained by law and with oversight from the executive and both branches of Congress, are thus liable for their actions, but are not immune from politics. Rather than going along with our changing culture and politics, the problems facing our intelligence are avoided by strict vigilance and adherence to the highest professional judgements and ethics - without political considerations. This event is the fourth Brian Kelley Memorial Lecture and is sponsored by the IWP Alumni Association. About the speaker S. Eugene (Gene) Poteat is a retired senior CIA Scientific Intelligence Officer, and has served as President of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO). He was educated as an electrical engineer and physicist. He holds a Masters in Statecraft and National Security Affairs from IWP. His career in intelligence included work with U-2 and SR-71 class of aircraft and various space and naval reconnaissance systems. He also managed the CIA's worldwide network of monitoring sites. He holds patents on covert communications techniques. His CIA assignments included the Directorate of Science and Technology, the National Reconnaissance Office, Technical Director of the Navy's Special Programs Office and Executive Director of the Intelligence Research and Development Council. He served abroad in London, Scandinavia, the Middle East and Asia. He received the CIA's Medal of Merit and the National Reconnaissance Office's Meritorious Civilian Award for his technological innovations.
Location: The Institute of World Politics 1521 16th St NW, Washington, DC 20036
REGISTER HERE.

30 March - 1 April 2017 - Washington, DC - Joint Conference on "Creating and Challenging the Transatlantic Intelligence Community"

The Woodrow Wilson Center, the German Historical Institute, and the Intenational Intelligence History Association are delighted to invite you to the jointly organized conference on "Creating and Challenging the Transatlantic Intelligence Community".

Please register for the conference by email to the IIHA Executive Director at exec_director@intelligence-history.org before 23 March 2017.
The conference fee is 150 EUR / 165 US-Dollar, 110 EUR / 120 US-Dollar for IIHA members and 75 EUR / 80 US-Dollar for students.
This includes dinners on Thursday and Friday as well as coffee breaks during the conference and a snack lunch on Saturday.
Full list of Speakers and Tentative Schedule here.

17 July - 11 August 2017 - Cambridge, UK - The International Security and Intelligence Programme and Conference at Trinity Hall, Cambridge.
This four-week summer programme, to be held at Trinity Hall, Cambridge between 17 July and 11 August, offers a unique opportunity to work with leading practitioners and academics from the security and intelligence communities in the delightful riverside setting of one of Cambridge's oldest Colleges. Chaired by Sir Richard Dearlove (formerly head of MI6, Britain's Secret Intelligence Service) and convened by Professor Michael Goodman and Dr. David Gioe, the International Security and Intelligence Programme (ISI) will consider the claims of state secrecy, the threat of nuclear proliferation, of cyber attack, of terrorism, the problems generated by the demand for regional security and the security challenges of revolutions and governing diversity. Intelligence collection, analysis of the product, and its dissemination to customers remain at the core of the intelligence cycle. Counterintelligence and covert action play more opaque but still vital roles at the heart of the nation state. Understanding these perspectives, what intelligence can achieve, but also its limitations, are major Programme and Conference themes. The panoply of threats facing Western democracies is diverse and the issues which preoccupy the highest levels of government will be discussed and analysed. With its emphasis on contemporary and future challenges and practice, ISI will appeal to those with an academic or professional interest in intelligence and contemporary threats. Uniquely, the ISI Programme will host a conference which will examine in more detail many of the key issues explored during the course. Entitled 'Security and Intelligence challenges arising from 'Brexit' and the US presidential election', the two-day conference will bring together delegates from academia, politics and government agencies and be attended by all ISI participants.
More information is available at: https://thecsi.org.uk/isi/​ Or contact them at: isi@thecsi.org.uk


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