AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #21-14 dated 27 May 2014

[Editors' Note: The WIN editors attempt to include a wide range of articles and commentary in the Weekly Notes to inform and educate our readers. However, the views expressed in the articles are purely those of the authors, and in no way reflect support or endorsement from the WIN editors or the AFIO officers and staff. We welcome comments from the WIN readers on any and all articles and commentary.]
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CONTENTS

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Section III - COMMENTARY

Section IV - Research Request, Books, Jobs and Upcoming AFIO Events

Research Request

Books

Jobs

Upcoming AFIO Events

Section V - Other Upcoming Events

For Additional AFIO and other Events two+ months or more.... view our online Calendar of Events 

    • WIN CREDITS FOR THIS ISSUE: The WIN editors thank the following special contributors:  pjk, jg and fwr.  They have contributed one or more stories used in this issue.

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NCMF Warner Presentation

Wednesday, 25 June 2014,
10:00-11:45 - Annapolis Junction, MD
Dr. Michael Warner addresses the NCMF Quarterly Cryptologic Program on
"The Rise and Fall of Intelligence: An International Security History."

The National Cryptologic Foundation Museum welcomes Dr. Michael Warner, Command Historian for United States Cyber Command as the speaker at this Quarterly Cryptologic Program. Dr. Warner has written and lectured widely on intelligence history, theory, and reform, and has taught at American University, Johns Hopkins University, and Columbia University. His new book The Rise and Fall of Intelligence: An International Security History has just been published by Georgetown University Press.
Dr. Warner’s book has been called a tour de force through the history and evolution of intelligence structures. The world changes intelligence and intelligence changes the world. Dr. Warner will discuss the development of professional, institutionalized intelligence, and examine the implications of the “fall” of the state monopoly on high-powered espionage today and beyond. During the Cold War, only the alliances clustered around the two superpowers maintained viable intelligence endeavors, whereas a century ago, many states could aspire to be competitive at these dark arts. Today, larger states have lost their monopoly on intelligence skills and capabilities as technological and sociopolitical changes have made it possible for private organizations and even individuals to unearth secrets and influence global events. How that happened and what it portends are the topics Dr. Warner will explore. You won’t want to miss this interesting program.
LOCATION: The presentation will be held at L-3 Communications, 2720 Technology Dr, Annapolis Junction, MD 20701, Tel 301-575-3200. There will be a book signing after the presentation as well as lunch from 1200-1300.
REGISTER: To attend mail your registration fee to NCMF, PO Box 1682, Ft. George G. Meade, MD 20755-9998
For Information, email: cryptmf@aol.com; call: 301-688-5436/37; Fax: 301-688-5619;
FEE: $20 NCMF members; $50 for guests (includes a guest membership). Deadline for registration is 20 June 2014.


Last Week to Register
AFIO's SUMMER LUNCHEON

FRIDAY, 13 June 2014

Some seats remain.
Badge Pick-up at 10:30 a.m.

<Jack Devine

1 p.m. speaker

Jack Devine

Former CIA Deputy Director of Operations [National Clandestine Service] and Chief of the CIA Afghan Task Force, 1986-87

Thirty Years of CIA Operations.
Where the Agency is Heading Today
vs. Where it Should Be

<Good Hunting by Jack Devine
"Jack Devine's Good Hunting gives readers an inside look at CIA—the good and the bad— from someone who rose from the bottom of the Agency to the top, during some of its most turbulent times. There are new insights into covert operations from Chile to Afghanistan to Iran-Contra and the lessons that should be drawn from them by government leaders and the public at large. Beyond that, it's just a good read." —Walter Pincus, columnist for The Washington Post

3-course Lunch at Noon

< 11 a.m. speaker


Peter W. Finn

National Security Editor for The Washington Post (previously served as the Post's bureau chief in Moscow). His book, The Zhivago Affair: The Kremlin, the CIA, and the Battle Over a Forbidden Book, discusses a 1960s, highly successful CIA propaganda operation.
The co-authors are Peter Finn and Petra Couvee [Couvee lives in Russia] and will not be joining us at this luncheon presentation.
<
The authors explore the world of Soviet intelligentsia and Cold War politics as they view how Boris Pasternak came to write and publish Doctor Zhivago (which first appeared in Italy in 1957). Using archival research, including previously classified CIA files, we see the oppressive political conditions that gave rise to Pasternak's masterpiece, and the international firestorm that occurred when the novel was banned in the USSR. The torturous ideological policing by the Soviets is discussed; for indeed, the tale of Doctor Zhivago itself is very much about the long psychic scar left by the Russian Revolution. The authors also present the role played by the Kremlin in persecuting Pasternak, and, of particular interest, the role of the CIA in using his novel in a highly successful game of ideological warfare―overall, a triumphant reminder that successful covert and propaganda operations can fade into history devoid of public recognition or credit for what became beneficial, pro-freedom outcomes.
 

Check-in for badge pickup at 10:30 a.m.
Peter W. Finn begins presentation at 11 a.m.
Lunch served at noon
Jack Devine begins his presentation at 1 pm
Morning and Afternoon programs are On The Record

These books and many other of the newest intelligence books will be for sale throughout event.

Event closes at 2 p.m.

Complete Registration

EVENT LOCATION: The Crowne Plaza
1960 Chain Bridge Road • McLean, Virginia 22102
Driving directions here or use this link: http://tinyurl.com/boey9vf
 

Section I - INTELLIGENCE HIGHLIGHTS

White House Orders Review After Spy's Name Is Revealed. The White House has ordered a review of how officials accidentally revealed the name of the Central Intelligence Agency's top spy in Afghanistan during President Obama's surprise trip to the country over the weekend.

Denis R. McDonough, the White House chief of staff, has asked W. Neil Eggleston, the president's top lawyer, to "look into what happened" and to recommend changes that would prevent similar mistakes, officials said.

The name of the C.I.A. station chief in Afghanistan was accidentally disclosed on Sunday morning when military officials sent a White House press aide a list of 16 people who were participating in a briefing with Mr. Obama. One of the participants was identified as "chief of station." That title refers to the highest-ranking C.I.A. officer in a country.

The New York Times is not naming the C.I.A. chief at the request of the White House and C.I.A. officials. [Read more: Shear/NYTImes/27May2014]

Ex-KGB Official: Snowden Is Working With Russian Intelligence. Former National Security Agency spy-secrets leaker Edward Snowden is working with Russian intelligence, a former KGB official claims.

Oleg Kalugin, an ex-KGB major general, told VentureBeat the former NSA contractor is serving the Russian federal security service, or FSB, the intelligence institution that succeeded the KGB after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The 80-year-old Kalugin, in a Thursday interview, said Snowden serves as a consultant or technical adviser to the intelligence agency - and they like his work.

"These days, the Russians are very pleased with the gifts Edward Snowden has given them," he told VentureBeat. "He's busy doing something. He is not just idling his way through life. The FSB are now his hosts, and they are taking care of him." [Read more: Burke/NewsMax/23May2014]

Somalia: Intelligence Service Raids Home of Terror Chief Aweys, Laptop Seized. Somali National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) officers have raided a home housing former leader of the now defunct Hisbul Islam insurgents and Al Shabaab terror group Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, seizing his laptop, TV and mobile phone, Garowe Online reports.

Following an audio recording provided to Somali media by Aweys aides, Independent sources tell GO that Mogadishu-based security agencies have been tracking Aweys who was placed under house arrest near the heavily fortified compound of Villa Somalia in late January.

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys put under house arrest in January.

Somali Intelligence Chief Gen. Bashir Mohamed Jama (Gobe) was accompanying intelligence officers during the search operation, Shiekh Aweys relatives confirmed. [Read more: AllAfrica/26May2014]

Israeli Intelligence Service Budgets Soared by 10% in 2013 to 6.6 Billion Shekels. Israel intelligence agency budgets increased by 10 percent in 2013 to 6.63 billion shekels ($1.9 billion,) according to data published by the Finance Ministry.

The treasury figures, published on an online government database, show that the Mossad espionage agency and the Shin Bet security service had a combined regular budget of 6.48 billion shekels, in addition to 156 million shekels of expenses that were conditioned upon on income. In 2012, the agencies had a combined regular budget of 5.91 billion shekels and 269 million conditioned upon income.

The agencies' budget has risen every year since 2006, when it stood at only 4.28 billion shekels.

The budget for the two intelligence agencies doesn't its own line item in the annual budget passed by Knesset. Instead, it's initially included in the general budget and subsequently transferred to the defense budget with authorization from the Knesset Finance Committee. This enables the agencies' budget to remain shrouded in secrecy without disclosing what the money is used for, or even how much goes to the Mossad and how much to the Shin Bet. [Read more: Cohen/Haaretz/22May2014]

Flandreau Guard Officer Wins National Intelligence Award. An Army National Guard officer from Flandreau has received a national award for her role as an intelligence officer in Afghanistan.

First Lt. Bridget Flannery is the winner of the 2014 Colonel Carl F. Eifler Award.

Lt. Col. Michael Oster in the same battalion says Flannery displayed outstanding leadership which improved intelligence gathering in training and combat. He says her performance saved lives and equipment. [Read more: AP/21May2014]

Korean President Dismisses Intelligence Chief, Top Security Aide. President Park Geun-hye on Thursday dismissed her top security aide and the chief of National Intelligence Service as part of her government overhaul in the wake of last month‘s ferry disaster.

She accepted the recently tendered resignations of NIS director Nam Jae-joon and National Security Office chief Kim Jang-soo, the presidential office said.

The move came amid rising calls for a personnel overhaul to restore public trust in the government that has been eroding due to its inept response to the nation's worst maritime disaster in two decades.

Their replacements will soon be announced, presidential spokesperson Min Kyung-wook told reporters. NIS First Vice Director Han Ki-beom and National Security Office Deputy Chief Kim Kyou-hyun will fill in for the interim, he said. [Read more: TheKoreaHerald/22May2014]

Swedish Spy Chief Warns of Rise of Islamist Threat. Sweden's biggest security threat comes from around 200 Islamists in the country with the potential for involvement in militant attacks, including young people radicalized after joining the war in Syria, the state's spy chief said.

Increasing Russian espionage and signs of "war planning" from Moscow since the Ukraine crisis took second place in Sweden's overall security assessment - although it did not see any increased immediate threat, Anders Thornberg said.

Sweden has long taken a standoffish position in international affairs, avoiding even the world wars of the last century. But military roles in Afghanistan and missions to Mali have undermined that formal neutrality and made Sweden more of a target, said Thornberg, who has spent over two decades at SAPO.

"We are talking about a couple of hundred people that are supporting or are willing and capable to carry out terrorist attacks in Sweden or planning a terrorist attack in Sweden against targets in neighboring countries or other places in the world," Thornberg told Reuters. [Read more: Scrutton/Reuters/27May2014]

U.S. to Train Syrian Rebels, Sets $5 Billion Fund to Fight Terrorism. U.S. President Barack Obama will announce he has approved the first U.S. military training program to aid moderate Syrian rebels in their fight against the Assad regime, Secretary of State John Kerry said on Wednesday.

Mr. Obama, in a commencement address on Wednesday at the United States Military Academy at West Point, will also propose a $5 billion fund to help countries fight terrorism, the White House said.

The training program for armed Syrian rebels marks a shift in Mr. Obama's hands-off policy toward the civil war in Syria. Critics of Mr. Obama's Syria policy have long argued that he hasn't done enough to help moderate rebels counter the regime of Bashar al-Assad or challenge the growing strength of al Qaeda militants.

Speaking on CBS, Mr. Kerry said Mr. Obama and the U.S. wouldn't put American boots on the ground in Syria. "But, yes, he is going to ramp up efforts with allies in concert with the fundamental support group of both Arab communities and European communities who are committed to helping to stop the slaughter that is taking place in Syria," Mr. Kerry said. [Read more: Lee&Sparshott/WallStreetJournal/28May2014]

Stream of al Qaeda Threats Has U.S. Intelligence Concerned. A series of al Qaeda-based threats to attack American and Western targets in Europe, as well as threats to launch attacks inside the United States, has caused significant concern inside the U.S. intelligence community, CNN has learned.

Officials are trying to determine the extent to which the threats may be linked and determine what it may mean about the strength of al Qaeda in several countries. While the "threat stream" has evolved during the past six months, according to a senior U.S. official, none of the threats has been corroborated.

The official said the threats appear to detail "a lot of activity where intelligence suggests there are operational cells," but so far, "we do not see operational cells of al Qaeda inside the United States," the official said, although he emphasized it could not be ruled out.

U.S. officials as well as analysts have long said they believe al Qaeda is focused on attacking outside the United States because of the difficulty in penetrating U.S. homeland security. But these latest threat streams suggest domestic U.S. targets also continue to be looked at by al Qaeda. [Read more: Starr/CNN/21May2014]

Air Force Intelligence Center at Military Base in Ohio Gets New Commander in Ceremony. A new commander is taking over a national military intelligence agency headquartered at an Air Force base in southwest Ohio.

Wright-Patterson Air Force Base says Air Force Col. Leah Lauderback is taking command of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center at the base near Dayton. A Wednesday ceremony at the National Museum of the U.S. Air Force marks the command change.

The center near Dayton analyzes data on foreign aerospace forces and weapons systems to determine performance characteristics, capabilities, vulnerabilities and intentions. The Air Force has said the center's assessments are important in shaping national security and defense policies.

The center has more than 3,000 employees worldwide. [Read more: AP/28May2014]


Section II - CONTEXT & PRECEDENCE

Despite Political Rhetoric, the Rules Matter at NSA. When the House this week voted in favor of curtailing NSA surveillance activities, few people in the U.S. intelligence community were watching more closely than John DeLong.

That's because DeLong is the agency's rules enforcer. And the USA Freedom Act, which passed by a vote of 303-121, would fundamentally alter the current set of rules governing NSA's bulk collection of telephone metadata. If the measure passes the Senate and becomes law, it will fall to DeLong to ensure NSA employees understand the new legal limits governing their actions.

As NSA's director of compliance, DeLong gets paid to worry about the conduct of NSA's estimated 35,000 code-breakers, analysts and staff (the actual number is classified). The 300 members of DeLong's office conduct employee training, staff hotlines to answer questions, develop and test IT systems for privacy compliance and conduct spot-checks on processes and procedures. And contrary to the claims of NSA detractors, the compliance effort at the agency is high-profile and has the attention of the most senior agency leaders.

"I work directly for the director [of NSA], so I'm able to walk in and advise and consult and have access to what I need to carryout my functions," said DeLong in an exclusive interview with FedScoop at the National Cryptologic Museum, across from NSA headquarters at Fort Meade, Md. "The inspector general and I are right down the hall from each other - very much peers." [Read more: [Verton/FedScoop/23May2014]

Stone Carver Shapes CIA Memorial for Fallen Operatives. A crowd of CIA employees gathered in the agency lobby last week in Langley, Virginia, as the stone carver stood before the Memorial Wall.

Tim Johnston scanned the white marble displaying 107 black stars, one for each agency operative or employee killed in the line of duty, a chronicle of assassinations, suicide bombings, plane crashes and other losses that he adds to each year. With a chisel and air-powered hammer, Johnston began carving four more stars into the gleaming Alabama marble, just below the words, "In Honor Of Those Members Of The Central Intelligence Agency Who Gave Their Lives In The Service Of Their Country."

Even the agency's director, John Brennan, came to the lobby to watch Johnston, a 59-year-old Northern Virginian who began his masonry career cutting bathroom tiles.

"I never know who's there. I don't know if they're spies," said Johnston, who has been carving stars into the wall since the late 1980s and always performs the duty a week or two in advance of the agency's annual memorial ceremony. He considers the CIA "family." [Read more: Shapira/WashingtonPost/22May2014]

Four DARPA Projects That Could Be Bigger Than the Internet. Forty years ago, a group of researchers with military money set out to test the wacky idea of making computers talk to one another in a new way, using digital information packets that could be traded among multiple machines rather than telephonic, point-to-point circuit relays. The project, called ARPANET, went on to fundamentally change life on Earth under its more common name, the Internet.

Today, the agency that bankrolled the Internet is called the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, or DARPA, which boasts a rising budget of nearly $3 billion split across 250 programs. They all have national security implications but, like the Internet, much of what DARPA funds can be commercialized, spread and potentially change civilian life in big ways that its originators didn't conceive.

What's DARPA working on lately that that could be Internet big? Last week at the Atlantic Council, DARPA director Arati Prabhakar declined to name names. Like a good mutual fund manager, she said that her job was to "manage risk through diversity" in her portfolio. But the technologies that she highlighted in her recent testimony to the Senate Appropriations Committee look like a list of insider favorites. Many have received much less public attention than DARPA's flashier robot initiatives.

Here are four of DARPA's potential next big things: [Read more: Tucker/DefenseOne/20May2014]

D-Day, Spies and Crossword Puzzles. June 6th marks the 70th anniversary of the greatest invasion armada in the history of warfare when 100,000 Allied soldiers crossed the English Channel to attack the Normandy beaches of occupied France.

Part of the success of that huge operation was the result of an elaborate deception. The Allies made it appear their assault was to come across in the east at the narrowest part of the channel. Meanwhile, in secrecy, their massive invasion force was assembled further west in England. It worked, and the confused German defenders failed to deploy their forces effectively, saving thousands of Allied lives.

Now imagine the horror in Allied, especially British, Intelligence when the code names for the real invasion appeared in the crosswords of the Daily Telegraph newspaper in the weeks before D-Day. Correct solutions to the crossword clues were the following; "Utah" and "Omaha", the codenames for American landing beaches, "Overlord", (the code word for the overall operation), "Neptune" (code for naval operations in the invasion) and "Mulberry" (the secret name assigned to the floating, pre-fab docks the invaders would use).

The authorities interrogated a Mr. Leonard Dawe, school teacher and the author of the crossword, at length and determined he was not a spy trying to feed information to the enemy. At the same time, pure coincidence also was ruled out. [Read more: Donnelly/TroyMedia/27May2014]

Under Secretary for Intelligence and Analysis, Department of Homeland Security: Who Is Francis X. Taylor? Francis Xavier Taylor was confirmed April 7, 2014, as the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) under secretary for intelligence and analysis. As the head of the Office of Intelligence and Analysis, he is responsible for gathering intelligence from other government and non-government sources on potential threats to U.S. national security.

Taylor was born October 22, 1948, in Washington, D.C. His mother was a single parent who worked for the Department of the Army. Taylor graduated from Dunbar High School in Washington in 1966. He went to the University of Notre Dame, where he was in the Reserve Officers Training Corps (ROTC). Upon graduation with a B.A. in government and international studies in 1970, Taylor was commissioned as a second lieutenant in the U.S. Air Force.

His first assignment in the Air Force was in its Office of Special Investigations. After some initial training, Taylor was an analyst in the counterintelligence division, focusing on the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.

In 1972, Taylor returned to Notre Dame, working on his M.A. in government and international studies, which he received in 1974. After earning his degree, Taylor returned to duty in the Office of Special Investigations. For about the next decade, he worked his way up the ranks, mostly working in Washington, but with one posting to Turkey. [Read more: AllGov/26May2014]

The High-Tech - and Very Low-Tech - Tactics of Corporate Espionage. The Justice Department unsealed an indictment last week of five Chinese military officers accused of hacking into the computer networks of American companies in order to steal trade secrets. The indictment was strongly worded but also "almost certainly symbolic," as the New York Times put it; the Chinese government isn't likely to turn over the accused hackers, especially since China's state-owned companies are the beneficiaries of the stolen information.

Chinese officials have denied everything, calling the accusations "fabricated," and diplomats have called the U.S. "hypocritical" because of what we all now know of the scope of American spying overseas. It is easy to read this indictment as an attempt by the Obama administration to change the subject, and to make a distinction between spying for national security and spying for mere profit (though the U.S. does that, too). But the White House hasn't been subtle in recent years in their condemnation of cyber crime and their promises to crack down on it.

In 2009, President Obama said that cyber criminals had stolen an estimated $1 trillion worth of intellectual property from businesses worldwide in the previous year alone. An FBI official said last year that his department's economic espionage arrests had doubled since 2008.

If the sprawling and provocative Chinese spying case announced last week is one extreme, then the other is a second announcement that the Justice Department made around the same time. The guilty plea of Ariel Manuel Freidler, 36, of Arlington, Virginia, for violations of the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act got less attention, not surprisingly. [Read more: Kirchner/PacificStandard/27May2014]


Section III - COMMENTARY

What Really Happened in Chile: The CIA, the Coup Against Allende, and the Rise of Pinochet. On September 9, 1973, I was eating lunch at Da Carla, an Italian restaurant in Santiago, Chile, when a colleague joined my table and whispered in my ear: "Call home immediately; it's urgent." At the time, I was serving as a clandestine CIA officer. Chile was my first overseas assignment, and for an eager young spymaster, it was a plum job. Rumors of a military coup against the socialist Chilean president, Salvador Allende, had been swirling for months. There had already been one attempt. Allende's opponents were taking to the streets. Labor strikes and economic disarray made basic necessities difficult to find. Occasionally, bombs rocked the capital. The whole country seemed exhausted and tense. In other words, it was exactly the kind of place that every newly minted CIA operative wants to be.

I ducked out of the restaurant as discreetly as I could and headed to the CIA station to place a secure call to my wife. She was caring for our five young children, and it was our first time living abroad as a family, so she could have been calling about any number of things. But I had a hunch that her call was very important and related to my work, and it was.

"Your friend called from the airport," my wife said. "He's leaving the country. He told me to tell you, 'The military has decided to move. It's going to happen on September 11. The navy will lead it off.'"

This call from my "friend" - a businessman and former officer in the Chilean navy who was also a source for the CIA - was the first indication the agency's station in Santiago had received that the Chilean military had set a coup in motion. Not long after, a second source of mine, another prominent businessman connected to the Chilean military, called for an emergency meeting; he and I agreed to meet at his house just after dark. He confirmed the earlier report and added one key detail: the coup would begin at 7 AM. [Read more: Devine/ForeignAffairs/23May2014]

How to Fix the FBI: It Shouldn't Be an Intelligence Agency. Less than a year after taking charge at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Director James Comey has turned to the pages of the New York Times to stoke public anxiety about a “metastasized” al-Qaeda threat. Clearly, terrorism has been a good issue for the FBI, helping it obtain vastly expanding authorities and resources since the 9/11 attacks, and a thicker wall of secrecy to prevent the public from seeing how it uses them. Comey's new fear-mongering is part of his continuing effort to transform the FBI into a full-fledged domestic intelligence agency. For anyone concerned about unchecked government power, this is a bad idea. And for anyone only concerned with effective security, it is even worse.

The FBI is the most powerful agency in the federal government, as it has the legitimate tools and authorities necessary to investigate allegations of criminal activity. As the nation's predominant law-enforcement agency it can probe federal, state, and local government officials, members of Congress, and even the president (not to mention the rest of us). An FBI agent merely asking questions about a political candidate, a religious leader, or a community activist can start rumors that destroy reputations and alter destinies, without ever leveling charges that could be defended. The Founders recognized this threat to individual liberty and democratic governance, which is why fully half of the amendments in the Bill of Rights are designed to restrict the government's police powers and force public accountability over their use.

By transforming itself into a domestic intelligence agency, however, the FBI slips these constitutional restraints. Intelligence agencies by their nature operate in near-impenetrable secrecy, mask their sources and methods, and collect information against people not even suspected of wrongdoing. They use deception as a primary tool and seek to disrupt the activities of those they perceive as enemies of the state, rather than prosecute them. Often their victims never know how their fortunes changed and, even if they suspect government interference, don't have a legal means to challenge it. [Read more: German/NationalReview/25May2014]

What Stability, Egypt? Egypt's unexpectedly long election, ending today, is almost certain to confirm Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi as the new president. Although el-Sissi is revered by a wide section of the public since mounting a coup against the unpopular Islamist president, Mohammed Morsi a year ago, he will have to deal with a challenge no modern Egyptian leader has faced before: a public that knows it can depose leaders who do not satisfy expectations.

The bottom line: el-Sissi has a limited amount of time in which to show his stuff.

The 59-year-old had only one opponent in the election - leftist politician Hamdeen Sabahi - who placed third in the 2012 contest that brought Morsi to power. This time, Sabahi ran a populist campaign full of unrealistic promises that many Egyptians saw through. Although some Egyptians see el-Sissi as the "savior of Egypt," his popularity has slipped since its high point after the coup. But he retains the backing of Egypt's powerful military and business interests, and his allies exercise tight control over the media - both of which give him a decisive edge.

But predicting election outcomes is only interesting if it can tell us something about what comes next in a given country. As an intelligence officer, I learned over the years that who wins the election is only one small component of assessing the future, especially in situations as revolutionary as modern Egypt. The more interesting question has to do with the underlying forces that the winner must contend with - the forces that will buoy or constrain the victor, regardless of what he or she has promised to do or wants to do. Here are some of those forces. [Read more: McLaughlin/OZY/28May2014]


Section IV - Research Request, Books, Jobs and Upcoming AFIO Events


Research Request
 [IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse these research inquiries or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding or supplying any information.]

Did you know or work with CIA Officer Cord Meyer? I am currently writing about Cord Meyer and I would like to interview any members of AFIO who knew him. I am currently in DC and will be here through the summer.
Many thanks, Jonathan. Responses to: Jonathan Nashel at jnashel@iusb.edu, Chair, History Department, Associate Professor of History, Indiana University, South Bend, South Bend, IN  46634, (574) 904-1311; (on-leave 2013-2014)

Books

Book Review: Hoover's Secret War Against Axis Spies. An oft-told story in the annals of intelligence is that of the rivalry of the FBI's J. Edgar Hoover with William Donovan of the Office of Strategic Services over which agency should have wartime primacy in the fight against the Axis powers. However, an overlooked principal in the fight was none other than MI6, the British Secret Intelligence Service.

As retired FBI executive Raymond Batvinis relates in engrossing detail, the Brits chose to align themselves with Donovan, realizing that he had considerably more clout with President Roosevelt than did Hoover. Indeed, in the pre-war years, the British were bold enough to set up their own shadow intelligence service in the United States, British Security Coordination, whose functions paralleled those of the FBI in many respects. To the British, the FBI was a police agency, interested in imprisoning spies rather than using them to feed disinformation back to Berlin, as did MI6.

In due course, peace was made. The OSS emerged with prime responsibility for foreign intelligence, but the FBI had an overseas presence through agents posted to American embassies as "legal attaches."

Drawing upon previously classified documents, Mr. Batvinis describes how the FBI joined with MI6 in the so-called "Double Cross" operation to funnel false information back to the enemy through agents who were caught and "turned." The bureau's target audience was Japan, which was fed a flood of bogus "information" on subjects ranging from the growth of U.S. military prowess to intended invasion targets. I had not encountered a full description of the bureau's work on "Double Cross" until Mr. Batvinis' book. [Read more: Goulden/WashingtonTimes/27May2014]

The Ill-fated Mission of the USS Pueblo. In Act of War: Lyndon Johnson, North Korea, and the Capture of the Spy Ship Pueblo, former Los Angeles Times political reporter Jack Cheevers recounts North Korea's 1968 seizure of the USS Pueblo, a U.S. intelligence-gathering ship; the ordeal the crew suffered while in detention; and the behind-the-scenes efforts to end the crisis. Despite protests that Pueblo was free to roam international waters, North Korea denied its crew the right to use international maritime laws in its defense, which led to a diplomatic crisis and a nearly year-long nightmare for the ship's crew members.

In January 1968, the small, worn-out American spy ship set out to pinpoint military radar stations along Wonsan, on the east coast of North Korea. The ship's true mission was shrouded in mystery even among some of the sailors - to spy on the hermit kingdom and evaluate its ability to wage a second Korean war. Though disguised as an oceanographic research ship, the Pueblo was packed with advanced electronic-surveillance equipment and classified documents. Its captain was former submarine officer Lloyd “Pete” Bucher, a 40-year-old work hard, party hard man. Though Bucher never commanded a submarine or a ship prior to this highly classified intelligence mission, he was not new to the world of intelligence. In the late 1950s and early 1960s, Bucher served on three submarines that eavesdropped on communist naval operations.

On a frigid January morning, while spying off the coast of Wonsan, the Pueblo was challenged by a North Korean gunboat. Commander Bucher tried to escape, contending that the ship was still in international waters, but the aging and poorly equipped naval intelligence ship could not outrun the North Korean forces. The ship was quickly surrounded by more North Korean boats, shelled and machine-gunned, and forced to surrender. One sailor died and ten were seriously wounded during the barrage. The North Koreans quickly boarded the ship and ordered Bucher to follow their ship into the port of Wonsan. After it reached Wonsan, the Pueblo crew was blindfolded and bound; they were rushed off their damaged spy ship and into a captivity that would last for 11 months.

The Navy blamed Commander Bucher for the capture. However, Cheevers argues that the Navy was really at fault. In fact, there were many problems with the Pueblo even before the mission set sail. First, the Pueblo was not fit for a mission of this gravity due to its lack of modernity and speed. When the Pueblo was stopped in "international waters," it was quickly surrounded by a North Korean submarine chaser, speedy torpedo boats, and two MiG jets. Pueblo‘s equipment and performance of its navigation was delinquent, and according to Bucher, it had a top speed of just 13 knots and thus had no chance of escape. Second, the Pueblo lacked proper equipment to defend herself or to carry out her mission. It only carried two 50-cal machine guns. Third, there was insufficient equipment aboard to destroy all the intelligence-gathering equipment and secret documents in a timely manner if the ship ran into trouble. Fourth, the intelligence community failed to notify the Pueblo of North Korea's Blue House Raid, led by Special Forces Lieutenant Kim Shin-Jo less than 48 hours before the Pueblo's capture. North Korean Special Forces had nearly succeeded in assassinating South Korea's president, Park Chung-Hee, the father of current South Korean President Park Guen-Hye. The knowledge of the raid would have been enough for the Pueblo to withdraw from her mission and regroup back to Sasebo, Japan, as the explosive incident had the power to push Cold War tensions toward a flashpoint. Fifth, prior to taking command, Bucher's briefers at the National Security Agency and the Navy Security Group told him not to worry about the ship being attacked. Despite North Korea's noticeable aggression towards the United States and a possible contempt for international law and custom, the U.S. intelligence community ensured Bucher that his best protection was the international law and custom that guaranteed free passage on international waters. [Read more: Lee/WarOnTheRocks/28May2014]


Jobs
[IMPORTANT: AFIO does not "vet" or endorse research inquiries, career announcements, or job offers. Reasonable-sounding inquiries and career offerings are published as a service to our members, and for researchers, educators, and subscribers. You are urged to exercise your usual caution and good judgment when responding, and should verify the source independently before supplying any resume, career data, or personal information.]

Records Examiner/Analyst with the FBI Foreign Language Program (Strategic Planning & Performance Analysis Unit)
City: Washington
Agency: Federal Bureau of Investigation
Position Schedule: Full Time
Salary: 26.47-26.47
Requisition Code 4935-625-140502

Job Description
As an intelligence-driven and a threat-focused national security organization with both intelligence and law enforcement responsibilities, the mission of the FBI is to protect and defend the United States against terrorist and foreign intelligence threats, to uphold and enforce the criminal laws of the United States, and to provide leadership and criminal justice services to federal, state, municipal, and international agencies and partners.
The Language Services Translation Center, a command and control structure at FBI Headquarters, was established to ensure that the FBI foreign language resource base of over 1,400 linguists, distributed across over 100 locations, is strategically aligned with operational and national intelligence priorities. Read about the full position at FSA.


AFIO EDUCATIONAL EVENTS IN COMING TWO MONTHS....

Wednesday, 4 June 2014, 6p - Nellis AFB, NV - AFIO Las Vegas Chapter meets to hear Reza Karamooz on "Future of Unmanned Vehicles."

Please join us at 5 p.m. in the "Robin’s Roost" bar area for liaison and beverages. Mr. Reza Karamooz is the President, Nevada Business Aviation Association. His topic, “Future of Unmanned Vehicles” is highly appropriate based on recent news analyses.
Place: The Officers' Club at Nellis Air Force Base. All guests must use the MAIN GATE, located at the intersection of Craig Road and Las Vegas Blvd.
Address: 5871 Fitzgerald Blvd., Nellis AFB, NV 89191 Phone: 702-644-2582.
Guest names must be submitted along with their birth date, driver’s license number and social security number by 4:00 p.m., Thursday, May 21, 2014
For Nellis AFB access or questions about the upcoming event, email or call Mary Bentley at mary.bentley@doe.gov or 702 295-0417.

Friday, 13 June 2014, 10:30am - 2pm - Tysons Corner, VA - AFIO Summer Luncheon featuring Good Hunting by Jack Devine, former CIA director of operations and chief of the CIA Afghan Task Force, 1986-87. The morning speaker is Peter Finn, National Security Editor for The Washington Post. His book, The Zhivago Affair: The Kremlin, the CIA, and the Battle Over a Forbidden Book, discusses a risky, highly successful 1960s CIA propaganda operation.

John "Jack" J. Devine addresses his colleagues and other AFIO members at this luncheon upon the release of his book, Good Hunting: An American Spymaster's Story. Devine served in the CIA for more than three decades, participating in covert operations that took him from Allende's Chile through Iran-Contra and Charlie Wilson's Afghanistan to George Tenet's Iraq, eventually rising to the position of Director of the DO [today's National Clandestine Service]. This book is a master class in spying.

Peter Finn's book, co-authored with Petra Couvee [Couvee lives in Russia], discusses the world of Soviet intelligentsia and Cold War politics to study how Boris Pasternak came to write and publish Doctor Zhivago (which first appeared in Italy in 1957). The authors use previously classified CIA files to depict the oppressive political conditions that gave rise to Pasternak's masterpiece, and the international firestorm that occurred when the novel was banned in the Soviet Union. The torturous ideological policing by the Soviets mirrored the tale of Doctor Zhivago itself which harbored a long psychic scar from the Russian Revolution. The authors also present the role played by the Kremlin in persecuting Pasternak and his loved ones, as well as the role of the CIA in using his book in a game of ideological warfare―overall, a triumphant reminder that successful covert and propaganda operations, though they can fade into history devoid of public recognition or credit, played significant roles and led to some highly beneficial, pro-freedom outcomes.

Early registration is .

19 June 2014, 11:30a - 2p - San Francisco, CA - The AFIO James Quesada Chapter hosts investigative journalist Scott C. Johnson who will be speaking about his book, The Wolf and the Watchman: A Father, a Son and the CIA.

11:30AM no host cocktails; meeting starts at noon. United Irish Cultural Center, 2700 45th Avenue, SF (between Sloat/Wawona). RSVP required by 6/6/14 to Mariko Kawaguchi: e-mail afiosf@aol.com with meal choice (fish or meat) and mail check made out to "AFIO" to: Mariko Kawaguchi, P.O. Box 117578, Burlingame, CA 94011. Members and students: $25; non-member guests $35 (must be accompanied by a member).

27 June 2014 - Los Angeles, CA - AFIO Los Angeles hears from Dr. Erik Nemeth on "Cultural Intelligence in International Affairs and Foreign Policy."

Dr. Erik Nemeth from the RAND Corporation will be the guest speaker for the June 27, 2014 meeting. Dr. Nemeth will present "Cultural Intelligence in International Affairs & Foreign Policy" - The politics of historical & cultural property and the intelligence gathering to assess the political significance of looting and repatriation of cultural property. Please RSVP for attendance: AFIO_LA@Yahoo.com

Thursday, 17 July 2014, 11:30 am - Palmer Lake, CO - The AFIO Rocky Mountain Chapter hears Sheriff-Elect Bill Elder.

Our speaker is Bill Elder, Sheriff-Elect at the caucus who is running unopposed in November; therefore, he will be our next Sheriff of El Paso County unless a huge write-in campaign is undertaken. This is an excellent chance to meet the new Sheriff and get to know more about him and his background.
Location: The Inn on the Palmer Divide, 443 S Highway 105, Palmer Lake, CO 80133 ~ Phone: 719-481-1800.
Exit I-25 at Exit 161 for Monument and Palmer Lake. Go North of SH 105 towards Palmer Lake. You will receive additional directions when you RSVP to Tom Van Wormer at robsmom@pcisys.net. The lunch will cost $12.00. You can pay at the door.

For Additional Events two+ months or greater....view our online Calendar of Events

Section V - Other Upcoming Events

MANY more International Spy Museum Events in 2014 with full details are listed on the AFIO Website at www.afio.com.

Wednesday, 4 June 2014, noon - Washington, DC - Global Terrorism, Espionage and Cybersecurity Monthly Update with David Major

Be the first to learn the latest intelligence news! Join David Major, retired FBI agent and former director of Counterintelligence, Intelligence and Security Programs, for a briefing on the hottest intelligence and security issues, breaches, and penetrations. Presented in partnership with The Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies (CI Centre), these updates will cover worldwide events such as breaking espionage cases and arrest reports, cyber espionage incidents, and terrorist activity. Find out Snowden’s current status and what could happen next with this case. Major uses his expertise to analyze trends and highlight emerging issues of interest to both intelligence and national security professionals and the public. Cases are drawn from the CI Centre’s SPYPEDIA®, the most comprehensive source of espionage information in the world, containing events and information that may not be reported by mainstream media outlets. Major will also highlight and review the latest books and reports to keep you current on what is hitting think tank desks.
Free. No registration required!

Saturday, 07 June 2014, 1 - 4 pm. - Washington, DC - Book Signing by Allan Topol, at the International Spy Museum Store (In-store Book Signing)

Join the International Spy Museum for an In-store book signing of The Argentine Triangle by Allan Topol, author of ten novels of international intrigue. Two of them, Spy Dance and Enemy of My Enemy, were national best sellers.

Just in time for your summer spyreading,the dynamic former CIA agent Craig Page is back in Alan Topol’s tenth novel, The Argentine Triangle, another highly anticipated fast paced thriller.
Craig goes undercover in the glamorous world of the Buenos Aires’ wealthy elite. He confronts brutality driven by a power hungry Argentine general, his cruel henchman, and a double dealing Washington lawyer who is the American President’s closest advisor.
In trying to block their effort to reshape exotic Argentina and all of South America, Craig uncovers buried secrets from the Dirty War. His mission and life hinge upon Gina, a sensuous young Argentine journalist and Nicole a compassionate Patriot. This is a heart wrenching tale of intrigue and deception.
Tickets: Free! No registration required. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Wednesday, 09 July 2014, noon - Washington, DC - Global Terrorism, Espionage and Cybersecurity Update, at the International Spy Museum

Be the first to learn the latest intelligence news! Join David Major, retired FBI agent and former director of Counterintelligence, Intelligence and Security Programs, for a briefing on the hottest intelligence and security issues, breaches, and penetrations. Presented in partnership with The Centre for Counterintelligence and Security Studies (CI Centre), these updates will cover worldwide events such as breaking espionage cases and arrest reports, cyber espionage incidents, and terrorist activity. Learn Snowden’s current status and what could happen next with this case. Major uses his expertise to analyze trends and highlight emerging issues of interest to both intelligence and national security professionals and the public. Cases are drawn from the CI Centre’s SPYPEDIA®, the most comprehensive source of espionage information in the world, containing events and information that may not be reported by mainstream media outlets. Major will also highlight and review the latest books and reports to keep you current on what is hitting think tank desks.
Tickets: Free! No registration required. Visit www.spymuseum.org

Thursday, 12 June 2014 - CIA Technology Exposition - CIA Headquarters in Langley, VA 

Hosted by the Office of the CIO, the CIA Technology Expo returns to the CIA Original Headquarters this June! This exclusive event is one of the very few opportunities to showcase your products and services inside the walls of the CIA. This is a great opportunity to network with CIO personnel as well as over 1,000 other CIA personnel. Over 100 applications will be collected but only 55 will be hand-selected by CIA to exhibit.
The CIA Technology Council will review all applications, make selections, and notify NCSI of accepted exhibitors. Please keep your answers concise and explain exactly the products and services you have to offer the CIA. The application process is free, you will only be charged if you are selected to exhibit!
In order to ensure that your application is processed, please complete both the 2014 Tech Expo Contract and the CIA Application. All applications must be received by 12:00 PM EST on April 4, 2014! All responses must be typed including electronic signatures and sent electronically. 
Please contact your NCSI sales representative at 443-561-2400 for application and contract forms and additional information. 
www.ncsi.com

17 June 2014, 1130a - 2p - McLean, VA - the DIA Alumni Association hosts Russell Breighner on "Putin's Capability for Power Projection."

The DIAA hosts their Defense Intelligence Forum featuring speaker: Russell G. J. Breighner on “Putin’s Capability for Power Projection; Does China have his back?”
Mr. Breighner extensive Russian expertise was gained from a wide variety of assignments involving Russia and his graduate program in Russian Studies from Georgetown University. Some of these assignment were: (1) working on Soviet Strategy and Doctrine, (2) investigating Soviet Inland Waterways and Ports, and (3) drafting a chapter for the largest NIE (over 400 pages) ever: “ Soviet Military Research and Development.” He received a personal note of congratulations from the NIC Chairman, Robert Gates. For years, he chaired the Threat Advanced Steering Group for the Joint Cruise Missile Program Office. A further example of his understanding of complex weapon system was demonstrated when he advised Senator Warner that the use of Electromagnetic weapons would degrade the Serbian electrical and electronic systems. This use reduce the Serbian power by 70% in some cases. For this he received the Senatorial Republican Medal of Freedom.
His undergraduate degree in Russian Language and Literature is from the University of Maryland. He has a PhD (ABD) in Russian Studies from Georgetown University and is the author of several books.
Location: Pulcinella Restaurant, 6852 Old Dominion Drive, McLean, VA.
Fee: Pay at the door with a check for $ 29.00 payable to DIAA, Inc. Checks are preferred, but will accept cash; however, credit card payment are discouraged.
Registration starts at 1130 AM, lunch at 1200 PM
This forum will follow a modified Chatham House rule. You may use the information, but with the exception of speaker's name and subject, you may make no attribution. Everything will be off the record.
Make reservations by 14 April 2014 by email to diforum@diaalumni.org. Include names, telephone numbers, and email addresses. For each attendee, choose among chicken cacciatore, tilapia puttanesca, lasagna, sausage with peppers, or fettuccini with portabella for your luncheon selection.

Friday, 27 June 2014, 1 - 4pm - Washington, DC - Meet A Spy: Tony & Jonna Mendez, the real CIA Officers behind the movie ARGO

Meet the Mendezes, both are former CIA Chiefs of Disguise, responsible for changing the identity and appearance of thousands of clandestine operatives around the world. Tony is most famous for his rescue of American diplomats from Tehran during the Iranian Hostage Crisis as depicted in the film ARGO.
Free. No registration required. More info and directions at www.spymuseum.org


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