Monthly WIN Short-Form Book Review

Why Every Intelligence Officer Should Watch a Movie about a Weatherman

In advance of the battle for Normandy in June 1944, there was another sort of battle over the weather forecast in the days leading up to D-Day.  Pressure, released in late May, recounts the efforts of Chief Meteorological Officer Group Captain James Stagg (Andrew Scott) to alert allied commanders, including General Dwight D. Eisenhower (Brendan Fraser) and Field Marshall Sir Bernard Montgomery (Damien Lewis), that they were about to send over 7000 ships and more than 150,000 men into a devasting storm with potentially catastrophic results.  

Several themes in the film resonate with values held to be at the core of the intelligence profession as practiced in the U.S. IC.  The need “to speak truth to power” is often noted, but seldom illustrated as effectively as through the heated exchanges between Stagg and Eisenhower and his leadership team as directed by Anthony Maras.  At the outset of the film, the momentum is entirely behind the decision to invade on June 5.  Stagg’s increasingly pessimistic forecast is the only factor in favor of a postponement.  The senior decision makers are even offered a tantalizing positive forecast: “alternative facts”, if you will, from a favored U.S. meteorologist, Colonel Irving Crick (Chris Messina), who promises fair skies and sunny weather based on dubious science. 

Stagg endures withering outbursts from Eisenhower as he attempts to make his case, leaving no doubt as to the vast disparity in rank between the two. Montgomery adopts a more subtle if no less threatening effort at coercion, urging Stagg to “get with the team”.   The implied threat of repercussions belies Monty’s seeming collegiality in their initial encounter. 

Stagg sticks to his position, confident in both the science and his expertise in interpreting the data: “connecting the dots”.  Crucially, however, he admits he cannot speak with absolute certainty.  Meteorology does not allow for certainty, only the best interpretation of the facts. 

Willing to speak “Truth to Power”; confident in his expertise, but humble enough to admit that, in his profession, there are no sure things; Group Captain Stagg would have been a fine intelligence analyst. 

All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. Government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. Government authentication of information or endorsement of the author's views.

David Gutschmit, former National Counterintelligence Officer for East Asia, is a retired CIA Operations Officer. In addition to numerous tours with the Directorate of Operations in the foreign field and at headquarters, he held assignments at the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the National Counterintelligence Executive/Office of the Director of National Intelligence, and the U.S. Naval War College. He currently teaches intelligence studies to graduate students at New York University, Columbia University, and Georgetown University, focusing on economic and industrial espionage and comparative intelligence systems.