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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes 35-99, 3 Sep 1999

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers. The editor will be relaxing on the Atlantic Ocean's shore next week, so this WIN includes a healthy variety of items to atone for this prospective loafing. Associate Editor Dr. John Macartney has undertaken to produce next week's WIN.

NOTE the Symposium and Convention agenda and registration announcement in Section IV. Members -- spread the word! Help put AFIO on the map. Sign up and take part!

NOTE: Changes of address should be send to our additional AFIO email address afionational@cs.com Our Director of Administration, Mrs Gretchen Campbell, will respond and enter them on the database. All other correspondence can continue to be sent to afio@afio.com.


SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

WHITE HOUSE GLOBAL STRATEGY DRAFT - - The White House NSC staff has drafted a new global strategy for the next century that states the nation is facing its biggest espionage threat in history, postulates concerted attacks by terrorists and rogue nations using cyberwar and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) on US civilian targets and infrastructures, and makes the case for continued US military intervention in a variety of circumstances and locations.

The NSC paper states that foreign intelligence agents are trying to glean US secrets at an unprecedented pace. "The threat from foreign intelligence services is more diverse, complex and difficult to counter than ever before."

The paper includes the assessment that foreign governments and terrorists are "creating sophisticated, well organized capabilities" to engage in cyberwarfare against the national infrastructure. In response, "new (US) intrusion-detection technologies are being developed, first to protect (the Defense Department) and other critical federal systems, then to protect private-sector systems as well. A nationwide system for quickly reconstituting in the face of a serious cyber-attack is being developed."

In general the NSC strategy statement provides a roadmap for using American economic, diplomatic and military strength to influence developments overseas and at home. "We must be prepared and willing to use all appropriate instruments of national power to influence the actions of other states and non-state actors, to exert global leadership, and to remain the preferred security partner for the community of states that share our interests." The paper therefore proposes a continued activist policy of military intervention and foreign deployments. In contrast to the Pentagon's current strategy guidance, the NSC paper posits that two major wars are unlikely to break out simultaneously. "Rather, a second foe would need time to decide to take advantage of heavy US military engagement in the first theater, and then mobilize and deploy its forces for an attack. Our strategy seeks to halt the second aggressor's advance, while continuing operations in the first theater. Our focus would then shift to the second theater."

Congressional sources have expresssed concern about the record number of military interventions and foreign contingency deployments during the past few years, and the quick willingness to resort to military power by this Administration (Ref: Secretary of State: if we have all this military power, let us use it). NSC spokesmen have (naturally) declined to comment on the report. (WTimes, 24 Aug 99, p. A1, Rowan Scarborough)

(NOTE: The threats and topics in this paper will be addressed by senior leaders at AFIO's Symposium "Intelligence 2000." Make your reservations now - see below Section IV) (RoyJ)

COUNTER-NARCOTICS INTELLIGENCE - Two more US-trained Colombian army battalions specialized in anti-narcotics operations are being planned. They would be patterned after a 950 member counter-narc battalion that completed training by US Army special forces in Colombia in June. It may be noted that the Colombian army troopers have reportedly been "vetted" for their human rights records. Military assistance to Colombia was cut off for a decade because of human rights abuses. But the growing strength of the two guerilla forces (FARC and ELN) and their profiting from narcotics traders in the areas under their control have reversed US policy. Last year military aid was resumed, and in March '99 intelligence-sharing was significantly broadened.

In a related development, the US Congress is about to legislate a major expansion of economic sanctions on international narcotics traffickers. The sanctions would bar drug traffickers and their associates from doing business in the US, cut off their access to American banks and freeze any assets they may have deposited here. American firms working with companies linked to the traffickers would be subject to civil and criminal prosecution. President Clinton first levied such penalties in 1995 against the four main leaders of Colombia's Cali cartel. But the Administration has shrunk from extending it to drug criminals in other countries, particularly Mexico. The Mexican drug gangs are said to have hidden their wealth in mazes of companies, aliases and associates that have not yet been penetrated.

The Congressional legislation ( passed in the Senate on July 21, and pending in the House) would force the Administration to enforce sanctions worldwide. By January 1, 2000, and every year thereafter, the legislation would require the Secretary of the Treasury to submit a list of major international drug traffickers, after consulting with the CIA, the FBI, and Departments of Defense and State. The lists would be vetted by the White House Drug Policy Director and sent to the President by March 1 each year, after which the sanctions process would begin. The government of Mexico has registered its strong opposition to the legislation on grounds that it fails to sufficiently protect innocent companies. (NYTimes 24 Aug99, A1; AFP 23 Aug 99)

(NOTE: AFIO's national symposium "Intelligence 2000" on 21 October features invited White House Drug Czar, General Barry McCaffrey. Don't miss it) (RoyJ)

FBI CRIMINAL JUSTICE TECHNOLOGY IMPROVES - At a ceremony in August, FBI Director Louis J. Freeh inaugurated the full operation of the Integrated Automated Fingerprint Identification System (IAFIS), which electronically matches fingerprints submitted by law enforcement agencies with the 34 million fingerprint cards in FBI holdings. This will cut the time it takes to find a match from 20 days to two hours - providing instant feedback to law enforcement useful for the disposition of suspects. The system will also speed up background checks in non-criminal "civil submission" cases (teachers, security guards) and security clearances. The new system cost $640 million, and deals with an average of 50,000 fingerprint submissions a day, evenly split between criminal and civil background cases. The latter, however, are charged a $24 processing fee, resulting in revenue of $100 million a year. Not a bad return!

As a related side note, the number of Americans under control of the criminal justice system keeps growing, reaching a record of 5.9 million last year, a 35% increase since 1990, a result of the "war of drugs," Congressional and State legislation evermore expanding the number of "crimes," and brutal sentencing guidelines, including drastic reductions in parole. The prison industry is booming. (WPost 24 Aug 99 p.A15, E. Walsh) (RoyJ)

(NOTE: The FBI will be represented at the AFIO National Symposium "Intelligence 2000" at the NRO on 22 October. Sign up now - see below)


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

FUTURE TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS - The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) will spend $700 million for a broad swath of research that depicts the shape of the future. Most of the funding ($290 million) goes to DARPA's newly organized Information Systems Office, including such areas as battlefield information networks that furnish troops in the field with targeting data and locations of both friendly and hostile forces; technologies for strategic intrusion assessment; and software for mission planning that automatically updates itself. Other funding will go to research on control and operations of robots to obtain intelligence and fight in urban warfare settings and for de-mining operations; detection of biological weapons; infrared counterwarfare technologies; three-dimensional imaging sensors to identify targets at distances of up to ten kilometers; and for Translingual Information Detection, Extraction and Summarization - a sophisticated Internet research tool. (Def Nws 28 June99, p. 25) (RoyJ)

RUSSIAN / US SPACE POSTURE TRENDS - With scanty funding and equipment that is nearing the end of its service life, Russia's military space force has deteriorated and will have no more than a bare-bones capability in a few years. Russia currently has 130 spacecraft orbiting the globe, and 60% of them are used for defense, intelligence or security.. Russia's military space-based navigational system (GLONASS) , and its communications and intelligence satellites, are all on the way to becoming marginal in capability while being only minimally replenished.

The most notable and publicised shortfall is in early warning. The existing system of early warning satellites will disintegrate if not reinforced with new spacecraft. Coupled with the gaps in surface radar coverage, this leaves huge holes in the warning network - - including the Pacific Ocean - - and the possibility for false alarms and nuclear alerts. Without adequate coverage the Russians might not be able to determine whether a missile has been launched from a US submarine or originating from elsewhere, and in an extreme scenario, might call a general alert that might result in a launch.

The Congressional Budget Office in a recent letter to Senator Tom Daschle declared that "one of the greatest strategic threats the United States faces is inadvertent nuclear war caused by a failure in Russia's command-and-control system." The CBO further stated that Russia has built seven new early warning satellites but is "unable or unwilling to devote the resources necessary to launch them." This would indicate that the Russians are willing to take a calculated gamble on warning at this time. The possibility of US financial assistance to Russia's early warning problem has surfaced from time to time, but is unlikely to find congressional support.

The Russian situation contrasts with that of the US, where progress is being made on ballistic missile defense systems, and military space funding is increasing. The Air Force, for example, plans a five year buildup. USAF space science and technology funding will increase from the present $500 million to $712 million by 2005. USAF space assets supported the Balkan War with GPS, Surveillance, Communications, Weather and combat search and rescue. The AF is planning to move the Moving Target Indicator (MTI) function from the Joint Stars aircraft to space. New GPS satellites are built with two jam-resistant channels for military-only use.

In addition, significantly, "space negation" studies are being undertaken pursuant to the "right of self-protection under international law," and a space-based laser is planned to be launched by 2010. Can Star Wars be far behind? (Def News , May10, p. 12; AF Mag, p.22, June99; Balt Sun 23 Aug 99 p. 17)

(NOTE: AFIO's "Intelligence 2000" Sympsosium will be conducted at the NRO on 22 October, with presentations on space reconnaissance and surveillance) (RoyJ)

OFFENSIVE CYBERWAR OPERATIONS - - US offensive information warfare operations, a black art that is a tightly guarded secret not usually openly discussed, were used during the recent air assault on Yugoslavia, according to General John Jumper, Commander Allied Air Forces Central Europe. It allegedly included an effort to penetrate Yugoslavia's computer systems, possibly to put false targets into the Yugoslav air defense network displays. The Pentagon may release some aspects of these operations in the Kosovo "lessons learned" report to be released later this month

An alleged DIA expert was quoted to say that cyber attacks on air defenses would likely take one of two forms. Firstly, deceptive materials could be inserted onto computer screens through intercepted communications links, to match what operators would be disposed to believe - - relying on prior cognitive profiling of key hostile decisionmakers. But secondly, in Kosovo, the techniques used were probably more straightforward, by inserting false radar images or SIGINT intercepts in such a way that automated systems, or even experienced radar operators, would accept and act on them. What the Yugoslav air defense personnel actually saw or did with the information is not yet in the public domain.

During the 1990-91 Gulf War, US Intelligence was able to read Iraqi email, but there was no active manipulation of enemy computers. The USAF then had cyberwar capabilities to insert themselves into the Iraqi systems, but the effort was forestalled by National Intelligence agencies (CIA and NSA) and national priorities for intelligence gathering over cyberwar operations. Intelligence agencies depend on passive unobtrusive monitoring of communications for success, intercepting and exploiting information streams - - while the military is built to attack and destroy hostile capabilities.

The fact that cyberwar attacks were allowed indicates that the conflict between National Intelligence agencies and the USAF information warrior operators were resolved, at least for the massive US air assault on Kosovo, Serbia and Montenegro. As General Jumper said, " There is a great deal to talk about in regards to information warfare that we were able to do for the first time in this campaign. It points our way toward a future that has to do with both ground and space-based assets." (Av Wk &Space Tech, 23 Aug 99, p.31, David Fulghum) (RoyJ)

(NOTE: National and USAF cyberwar defenses and operations will be addressed in the AFIO National Symposium at the NRO on 22 October. You are invited - See below)

NATIONAL SECURITY STAFF REALIGNMENT - Samuel Berger, Assistant to the President for National Secutiry Affairs, on 26 August announced the formation of a new NSC directorate with responsibility for Albania, Bosnia, Herzegowina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro, Romania and Slovenia. Other nations formerly under the jurisdiction of the Directorate of Central and East European Affairs will be assigned to the European Affairs Directorate.

The new directorate is to be headed by Christopher Hill, former US Ambassador to Macedonia and special Envoy for Kosovo, with the title of Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Southeaast European Affairs. His resume reflects being a Peace Corps volunteer, staff member for Congressman Stephen Solarz, and a career foreign service officer. (White House 26 Aug99) (RoyJ)

FORMER DCI TO BE COLLEGE DEAN - - The George Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University has announced that Robert Gates has agreed to become the school's interim dean. Dr. Gates has said he will fill the job for one year during the search for a permanent dean which is to be conducted beginning this fall or in early spring. "It's something I've offered to do for President Bush," said Mr. Gates who lives in the Seattle area. The school is in the process of being removed from the A&M liberal arts college to be an independent entity within the A&M system. The change in status will aid in fund raising and was necessary to obtain $2.5 million in Texas legislative funding for the school contained in a rider to the state appropriations bill. Mr. Gates was the DCI from January 1976 to January 1977 after fighting off efforts for six-months by those who wished to deny him the post. ( Dallas Morning Nws 24 July '99 by John Kirsch (DonH)


SECTION III _ BOOK REVIEWS

RAIDERS OF THE CHINA COAST: CIA Covert Operations During the Korean War, by Frank Holober, Naval Institute Press, 1999, ISBN 1-55750-388-5. An authentic lively and firsthand account of CIA operations to build a guerilla movement that would divert Communist Chinese troops from the Korean front. The author, a CIA Far East specialist and China scholar, served with the Quemoy partisans for ten months 1951-52, and took part in the clandestine partisan operations against the Chinese mainland. The narrative is anecdotal, an eyewitness account that lifts the veil of secrecy on special operations in a war that has slipped from public consciousness - even though as many Americans died in Korea as did in Vietnam. It can be read as a rousing story or as history, celebrating an exceptional cast of American characters involved in these clandestine operations, including more than 8,000 courageous Chinese guerilla fighters. Highly recommended. (RoyJ)

HE WHO DARES: Recollections of Service in the SAS, SBS and MI5, by David Sutherland, Naval Institute Press, Special Warfare Series, Annapolis 1999, ISBN 1-55750-346-X. This book is a personal recollection of special operations during another war, World War II, mostly in the Aegean area and covering raids on German-held airfields, in conjunction with Greek resistance fighters, who risked their lives and that of their families. The author served in the Army during World War II and until 1955, when he joined MI5, for whom he worked for twenty-five years. Although the title indicates coverage of his MI5 years, this gets short shrift in a few pages. The book really covers the Special Boat Service, an arm of the SAS, and its operations against the Germans. For those interested in this aspect of the Great War, another personal recollection of the small actions that fill in the grand history of that conflict. (RoyJ)

BIOHAZARD: The Chilling True Story of the Largest Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World, by Ken Alibeck, with Stephen Handelman, Random House, 1999.

Billogical weapons are a poor man's potential weapon of choice, cheap and relatively low-tech, and useful for terrorists and non-state actors. Colonel Kanatjam Alibekov who left Russia in 1992 and now has simplified his name, was a former official in the USSRs covert biological warfare program.This is his story, including types of experiments, and methods and failures in biological safety measures. He advocates the need for programs to keep biological capabilities out of the hands of terrorists, and the need for improved US defensive preparations, including an innovative idea for boosting the human nonspecific immune reaction to the inital entrance of biological agents. The US Marine Corps war-gamed this last year and found that it had potential - a reason why the Chief of Staff of the Marine Corps Warfighting Lab at Quantico reviewed this book.(WTimes 10Aug 99, rev. by G. Anderson - not reviewed by editor) (RoyJ)

CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL TERRORISM: Research and development to improve Civilian Medical Response, National Academy Press, 1999, ISBN 0-309-06195-4. The book covers the need for pre-incident intelligence and identification of biological agents, various countermeasures, and dealing with the psychological effects of terror. Not on our usual reading list, but on a topic regarded as a threat to the US in the coming decades. (RoyJ)


SECTION IV - - BULLETIN BOARD

AGENDA AND REGISTRATION

AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM "INTELLIGENCE 2000," held in conjunction with the AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION 21-23 OCTOBER 1999 - - McLean & Chantilly, Virginia.

1.The AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM " INTELLIGENCE 2000," Thursday 21 October 12:30 until 4 pm at the Marriott Hotel at Tysons Corner, Virginia, and on Friday 22 October, at the NRO facility in Chantilly, Virginia from 0800 until 1700 followed by a " rush hour traffic abatement" Social Hour mixer until 1800.

The sessions will be conducted at the "UNCLASSIFIED, Background Use Only, Not For Attribution " level. As we all know and have experienced - MUCH of great interest can be said at this level.

A STELLAR CAST OF SPEAKERS has been invited to participate in the "Intelligence 2000" symposium, including, (in alphabetic order):

The Honorable Keith Hall, Director NRO, the Host of "Intelligence 2000."

Mr Jeffrey Harris, former Director NRO and currently President, Space Imaging, Inc.;

Lieutenant General Patrick Hughes, USA, former Director DIA;

Mr. Richard Kerr, former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence

Mr. John Lauder, Director of the DCI Nonproliferation Center;

General Barry McCaffrey, Director of National Drug Control Policy, Executive Office of the President - Keynote Speaker on 21 October;

The Hon. Ted Stevens, US Senator, and Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, Keynote speaker at the NRO on 22 October.

Colonel Richard Stotts, Commander of the USAF Information Warfare Center;

The Honorable George Tenet, Director of Central Intelligence - keynote speaker 22 Oct.

Mr. Michael A. Vates, Depy Asst Dir. FBI, National Infrastructure Protection Center

2. The AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION will be held in conjunction with the AFIO National Symposium, at the Tysons Marriott Hotel on Thursday 21 October at 4 pm.

It will include a GENERAL MEMBERSHIP MEETING, a RECEPTION and cocktail hour, and an AWARDS BANQUET (three course dinner, music, awards to an media representative and a book author, and to exceptional AFIO members, and with a distinguished keynote speaker).

On Saturday morning follow-on meetings will be held, primarily with chapters members and the AFIO Board of Directors.

NOTE: The AFIO Honorary Board and a number of notables will be invited to attend the Reception and Banquet as guests of AFIO.


REGISTRATION: Provide Name, Social security number (for Government security check for Symposium), Title, Organization, Mailing & email and tel address, plus a check made out to "AFIO"

Mail to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.

RATES (mostly tax deductible):

AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM only - $165 (for members and their guests, and for other categories of fellow individuals*)

AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM - non-members (see note below*) - $248

AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION only - - $105 (for AFIO members and guests)

COMBINATION Package price for BOTH Convention and Symposium, for members and their guests = $239.

NOTE* - NON-MEMBERS INVITED TO ATTEND AT AFIO MEMBER RATES ARE: US /State/local Government personnel, and members of fellow professional associations, NMIA, DOCA, SASA, NIP, CIN, PCIC, SCIP, Phoenix Society, and Natl Security Com of ABA.

The total number of attendees is limited to 250. Early sign-up is recommended. AFIO members - spread the word! Help make this event a success!

For AGENDA information, contact:

Symposium Chairman RADM (ret) Don McDowell. <, or the AFIO Executive Director, Roy Jonkers <.

For REGISTRATION information, contact Mrs Gretchen Campbell, AFIO Dir. of Administration, tel (703) 790 0320, or email <.

LODGING - - For out-of-towners, suggest you register to get a hotel room soonest. Arrangements for lodging may be made with the Tysons Corner Marriott hotel.

To qualify for the SPECIAL RATE of $84 per night (good ONLY for Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights ) you MUST mention ASSOCIATION OF FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS.

If you include Wednesday night, they will not extend the special rate.

Early hotel reservations are recommended (soonest), as the Marriott is expected to fill rapidly and early due to other events in the area.


LAST CALL - - AFIO FALL LUNCHEON, Monday, Sept 13, 1030 - 1400 hrs, Fort Myer, Va. - - - Two outstanding speakers: (1) Rick Francona, involved in US covert assistance to Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war and interpreter for General Schwarzkopf during the Gulf War, will speak on intelligence and policy issues concerning IRAQ.

(2) Kenneth Knaus, former CIA operations officer, will speak on America's covert attempts to aid Tibetan resistance.

Introduce AFIO to a guest -- members and their guests $26, others welcome at $29. Send check to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.

URL OF INTEREST - Member James Algrant called attention to his Foreign Affairs URL of Interest: http://www.midcoastexchange.com


EMPLOYMENT EXCHANGE

FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICER - MA International Relations, internet search skills, experience with encryption software (Secret Agent), completed Data Management Systems and Information Warfare applications courses, served as the lead in the Technology Assessment Working Group for the program protection plan of the Joint Strike Fighter Program, peformed a variety of technology treat assessments, and involved in the development of a USAF planning and modeling tool - - looking for challenging employment. Inquiries refer to File J-124.

CAREER SPECIAL OPERATIONS OFFICER, BSE, MS Systems Management, current TS/SCI, twelve years experience as an industry systems analyst, member of the Advanced Research Programs Agency (ARPA) senior working group addressing technology requirements for Operations Other Than War. Recent involvement with USSOCOM SOF baseline master plan, counternarcotics strategy, low intensity conflict logistics. Interested in challenging employment. Inquiries refer to File J-122.


URL OF INTEREST: Member James Algrant called attention to his Foreign Affairs URL of Interest: http://www.midcoastexchange.com


SCHOLARSHIP ANNOUNCEMENT:

TIGHE SCHOLARSHIP DETAILS ANNOUNCED (San Diego, California). The San Diego Chapter of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO/SDC1) has announced the topic for the year 2000 Tighe Scholarship essay contest. This will be the sixth, and last, year for this contest which is funded by the chapter, Bally Manufacturing and the Brunswick Corporation in memory of Lieutenant General Eugene F. Tighe, Jr., who passed away on January 29, 1994. General Tighe served the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Intelligence Community for over 50 years, including as the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency from 1978 to 1981. To help foster intellectual excellence, encourage college students to think about issues facing the Intelligence Community, and to make post-secondary students aware of Intelligence as a profession, the San Diego Chapter is offering a $1,000 scholarship to the student who submits the best 1,000-1,500 word essay on the specific topic: "Identify and discuss the top national security threat(s) you think the U.S. Intelligence Community should be focused on today." Complete details, including required essay format and a mandatory application that must accompany the essay, are available from AFIO/SDC1 by sending a stamped Self-Addressed Stamped Envelope (SASE -- size #10 business) to: Tighe Scholarship Administrator; 1142 Miramonte Glen;

Escondido, CA 92026-1724. AFIO/SDC1 will send Tighe Packages back to students in their SASE's if they are received by the Administrator prior t o December 1, 1999. Postmark dead line for submitting essays and applications is January 10, 2000. Questions can be addressed to the Administrator via e-mail to esb4jts@aol.com.


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