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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #36-99, 10 Sep 1999

WINs are produced by Editor Roy Jonkers for AFIO members and subscribers. Roy is relaxing at the seashore this week, so Associate Editor John Macartney has produced this WIN.

NOTE the Symposium and Convention agenda and registration announcement in Section IV. Members -- spread the word! Help put AFIO on the map. Sign up and take part!

NOTE: Changes of address should be send to our additional AFIO email address afionational@cs.com Our Director of Administration, Mrs Gretchen Campbell, will respond and enter them on the database. All other correspondence can continue to be sent to afio@afio.com.

REMINDER: Luncheon at Fort Myer - Sept 13th.

AFIO SYMPOSIUM AND CONVENTION, Oct 21-23.


SECTION I - CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

NIE ON RUSSIA-CHINA TIES. According to the Washington Times (Sep3), there is "crash effort" underway by the intelligence community to turn out an NIE (or SNIE) on growing diplomatic and military cooperation between Russia and China. Some of the focus is on recent sale of high tech weapons systems (SU-27 & SU-30 fighters, Kilo subs, S-300 air defense missile systems, and possibly ICBM and/or Typhoon class sub technology.

HARD AND DEEPLY BURIED TARGETS (HDBTs). According to "Inside the Air Force" (Sep3), the Pentagon has had a multifaceted effort underway for several years that explores ways to deal with and defeat deeply buried installations. Although this includes a ballistic missile that has successfully penetrated 30 feet of granite, most of the program concentrates on intelligence sources and methods that can detect and analyze the purpose of HDBT's.

CHINA TO BUILD AIRCRAFT CARRIER. According to US intelligence officials, China will begin building it's first aircraft carrier at a newly upgraded Shanghai shipyard capable of building 3 carriers simultaneously. The first carrier, which is expected to be operational by 2006, is expected to be equipped with about 36 Chinese-produced, carrier-adapted versions of the Russian Su-27 "Flanker" (Su-33, prototypes known as the Su-27K). China has already commenced licensed production of the Su-27, while Russia has had 10 years of carrier operation of the Su 33 from ski jumps with the type being operational on the Admiral Kuznetzov since 1998. (Navy News & Undersea Tech, 8/23/99)

FORMER DCI STRIPPED OF SECURITY CLEARANCE. DCI George Tenet has suspended his predecessor's security clearance. This stems from an episode in 1996 when CIA technicians went to John Deutch's home to remove CIA equipment that had been there during Deutch's tenure as DCI. They discovered that Deutch had improperly moved sensitive classified files onto his personal desktop computer. (That's similar to what Los Alamos scientist Wen Ho Lee is accused of, and it's a felony. The similarity of the two cases makes it unlikely that Wen Ho Lee will be prosecuted.) NY Times, 8August 21, 1999

SANDY BERGER. The Aug 25 NY Times carried an interesting profile of Sandy Berger, President Clinton's influential National Security Adviser. "Widely regarded as the President's closest foreign-policy aide, perhaps the most influential national security adviser since Henry Kissinger, he is at bottom a political rather than strategic figure. Unlike the professors, diplomats and military officers who have for the most part preceded him in his job, he made his way to the White House by way of the salons and back rooms of Democratic politics while pursuing a public career as a trade lawyer." See also Sandy Berger's op-ed piece in the Sept 5 Washington Post. http://www.nytimes.com/library/politics/082599berger-profile.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-09/05/138l-090599-idx.html

NEW RUSSIAN JET FIGHTER. Spectators at the recent Moscow Air Show were treated to the first public demonstration of the Sukhoi S37 - a fighter with a radical design that sets its apart from anything else in the skies today. http://www.scotsman.com/

WHO LOST RUSSIA? Republicans are trying to link Vice President Al Gore with the current scandal about Russian organized crime. Mr Gore and his handlers say the VP was unaware of the extent of corruption in Russia, but his critics say he didn't want to know. They point to a CIA report on crime and corruption in Russia which is said to have been returned from the VP's office with the exclamation, "Bullshit!", in Gore's handwriting in the margin. http://www.nytimes.com/yr/mo/day/editorial/31tue1.html
http://www.economist.com/editorial/freeforall/current/index_sa3796.html


SECTION II - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENCE

REPORT CARDS ON DCI GEORGE TENET. David Ignatius, a regular Washington Post columnist (who, by the way, is savvy about intelligence matters and has written novels of same), had a column in the August 22 Post that commended Tenet, who has been DCI now for just over two years. Among other things, Ignatius wrote, "that he hung the right portrait on the wall" [of former DCI Richard Helms]. Ignatius also praised Tenet for straight talking, notes that case officer resignations have been cut by half, CIA is hiring again, and that Tenet gets good marks from his Congressional overseers. "Tenet..." Ignatius writes, is "the kind of boss you'd want to work for if you were a spy." DISSENTING VIEW. A rebuttal of sorts came in the August 27 Post. Patrick Eddington, a former CIA analyst, said "Ignatius's benign view...is out of synch with Tenet's actual record." Eddington bases his rather harsh criticism mostly on a charge he has made elsewhere "that the CIA had withheld any relevant information from the public regarding possible chemical exposures among American Gulf War veterans." Eddington goes on to charge that "The agency's analytical record under Tenet has been dismal..." >From what I hear around town, Ignatius is has it right. (jdmac) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/22/136l-082299-idx.html
http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-08/27/017l-082799-idx.html

NO MORE NID. The CIA ended publication of its premier top-secret report, the National Intelligence Daily, last year. The NID has been replaced by the more restrictive Senior Executives Intelligence Brief, or SEIB. A CIA spokesman said the change came in the wake of leaks of NID information to the press..." http://www.drudgereport.com/gertz.htm
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/fy98intellrpt/report.html#3

LOS ALAMOS AND OTHER NATIONAL LABS ASSIST INTELLIGENCE. While we mostly hear about espionage and lax security at the DOE Labs, their research also helps the intelligence community. As reported in the August 27 Washington Times, DOE scientists "have developed a new system used by American spies around the world to communicate back to headquarters. The prototype system is a mobile, wireless, Intranet protocol-based computer communications network 'that incorporates low probability of detection/low probability of intercept characteristics,' according to a report to Congress by CIA Director George Tenet." And DOE scientists "helped the US Secret Service last year by developing a prototype system used to tag and track vehicles. The chemical tag is sprayed onto target cars or trucks and can be tracked with special lights." http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/fy98intellrpt/index.html

NAVY OFFICER INJURED BY RUSSIAN LASER GETS NEW CHANCE. Lt Jack Daly, the Navy intelligence officer who suffered permanent eye damage when the Canadian surveillance helicopter he was riding in was lazed by a suspected Russian spy ship near Puget Sound in 1997, will get another promotion opportunity. Daly, who had been publicly and sharply critical of the way both DOD and State handled the incident, received his second promotion passover this spring and would have been required to leave the service. Now, the Navy IG has ruled that he was unfairly treated by a former supervisor. A poor fitness report, judged by the IG to have been a "reprisal," has been expunged and a special board will be convened to reconsider his case. (Washington Times & WashingtonPost, 9/9)

FOREWARNING OF LUSITANIA? On the August 29 broadcast of "CNN & Time," there was a segment on the sinking of the Lusitania in 1915. (This is the same show that brought us "Operation Tailwind" last year, the outrageously untrue show about special ops in Laos.) Unfortunately, I only caught the last couple minutes, so I don't know what sort of evidence was presented. But the theme of the program was clear: Through SIGINT, the British government, and specifically, Winston Churchill, then First Lord of the Admiralty, knew that a German U-boat was waiting in the path of the Lusitania, but the Brits very deliberately did nothing to warn the ship, hoping that it would be sunk with great loss of American lives and thus help propel America into WW1. Perhaps that's true and, for all I know, maybe it is a well known fact. But I have never heard of it, and I have some doubt that SIGINT was so effective in 1915 that it could then pinpoint U-boats -- as was done a quarter century later in WW2. Anyone have any information on this matter? John Macartney,

BOEING GETS SATELLITE CONTRACT. The NRO has awarded Boeing a multibillion dollar contract to build the nation's next generation of imaging satellites. The Future Imagery Architecture (FIA) award, announced Sept. 3, brings to an end the dominant role Lockheed Martin has enjoyed in the classified satellite imaging business for more than 30 years. (Def News, 9/13/99)

CIA DO REFORM & REVITALIZATION. Vernon Loeb wrote in the Washington Post on reform of the DO. "Money is pouring in from Congress, the CIA is engaged in the most significant recruiting drive in its history, morale is up and resignations by DO case officers are way, way down. 'I really believe the corner has been turned,' Rep. Porter J. Goss (R-Fla.)," chairman of the HPSCI [and an AFIO member] said. The article mentioned training for new case officers, including parachuting from airplanes (to build esprit and self confidence) and much greater emphasis on languages. Also in the article, former analyst Mel Goodman and former case officer Ruel Marc Gerecht (author of last year's devastating "Edward Shirley" article in the Atlantic Monthly) heaped criticism on the DO. http://search.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-09/07/041l-090799-idx.html


SECTION III - BOOKS AND OTHER SOURCES

VERNON LOEB's NEW ONLINE COLUMN. Vernon Loeb, the Washington Post reporter who specializes in intelligence matters, has a new biweekly column, "IntelligenCIA," on the Post's web page. Like Loeb's other reporting, this is well done -- but it appears only online, not in the print edition. To access it, go to the Post's web site, http://www.washingtonpost.com/, and click on "Nation." On that page, scroll down the right hand side to Vernon's picture and column icon. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/loeb/loeb.htm

DCI's ANNUAL REPORT, May 1999. This is an interesting document that essentially lists (some of) the intelligence community's accomplishments during FY 1998. It contains several things new to me (such as the demise of the NID and the fact that all CIA analysts will soon have high speed internet access on their desktops). Plus there's an acronym glossary. (jdmac) http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/fy98intellrpt/index.html

EAST TIMOR. Author and AFIO member Bill Goulden brought this item on East Timor to our attention. Worth a read. http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/GIU/090899.ASP

INTELLIGENCE SITE. This site, "American Intelligence Study Group," is new to me, but it looks like it will grow and be useful. (jdmac) http://www.amintel.com/

MI5, SOE, MOD & GCHQ ONLINE. http://www.mi5.gov.uk/career/info.htm http://www.pro.gov.uk/releases/soe-europe.htm http://www.mod.uk/#Defence Intelligence Staff http://www.gchq.gov.uk/

ALL YOU EVER WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT ENCRYPTION. The current commercial encryption standard, DES, is based on a 56-bit algorithm and was recently cracked in 22 hours by a group of academic computer experts. The software industry wants to go to a higher standard but the US intelligence and law enforcement communities want a "back door" so they can, with a warrant, get at the messages. NSA has told Congress that using current technology, a 64-bit algorithm would take 7,000 years to crack, and a 128-bit algorithm would take 8.6 trillion times the age of the universe. For more about cryptography in general and this debate: http://cryptome.org/crypto97-ne.zip

INTELLIGENCE AND POLICY. Bruce Berkowitz, a former CIA analyst and Senate intelligence committee staffer, wrote a thoughtful piece on this subject in the Washington Post's Sep 5 Sunday Outlook section. He focuses on the El Shifa pharmaceutical plant destroyed by US cruise missiles in August 1998 -- now the focus of controversy and at least one lawsuit, because of doubts about the plants relationship to Osama bin Laden and to nerve gas. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-09/05/122l-090599-idx.html

COMMERCIAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. There is a good article on high resolution (1-meter) commercial imagery in the Sep 5 NY Times Magazine. One of Robert Wright's main points is that US efforts to restrict and control commercial imagery will come to naught as those in the imagery business can (and already are) incorporating in the Cayman Islands and other more permissive environs. Also, he notes, greater worldwide transparency will disadvantage closed societies like N Korea and Libya much more than open societies like the US. Other points: - Ikonos, the first 1-meter commercial satellite is scheduled for launch Sept 24 - Macdonald Dettweiler, a Canadian firm, has had a commercial 8-meter radar satellite up for 4 years and is planning to launch RadarSat-2, capable of 3-meters (but the US govt won't allow NASA to participate) - Other commercial satellites have been launched by Russia, India, the EU and France. Japanese and Israeli firms will soon join in. - US government intelligence satellites, the article says, have resolution "measured in inches." http://www.nytimes.com/library/magazine/home/19990905mag-tech-privacy.html

MOSSAD TO ESTABLISH A PUBLIC RELATIONS OFFICE. http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/meast/9908/26/BC-ISRAEL-MOSSAD.reut/index.html

POLYGRAPHS. A new collection of resources on polygraph testing is posted at http://www.fas.org/sgp/othergov/polygraph/index.html

SECTION IV - BULLETIN BOARD

AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM "INTELLIGENCE 2000," & the AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION 21-23 OCTOBER 1999 - - McLean & Chantilly, Virginia.

1. The AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM " INTELLIGENCE 2000," will be held on Thursday 21 October 12:30 until 4 pm at the Marriott Hotel at Tysons Corner, Virginia, and continue on Friday 22 October, hosted by the Honorable Keith Hall, Director national Reconnaissance Office, at the NRO facility in Chantilly, Virginia from 0800 until 1700 hrs, followed by a " rush hour traffic abatement" Social Hour until 1800. The sessions will be conducted at the "UNCLASSIFIED, Background Use Only, Not For Attribution" level. As we all know and have experienced - MUCH of great interest can be said at this level.

A STELLAR CAST OF SPEAKERS has been invited to participate in the "Intelligence 2000" symposium, including, (in alphabetic order):

The Honorable Keith Hall, Director NRO, the Host of "Intelligence 2000." Mr Jeffrey Harris, former Director NRO and currently President, Space Imaging, Inc.; Lieutenant General Patrick Hughes, USA, former Director DIA; Mr. Richard Kerr, former Deputy Director of Central Intelligence Mr. John Lauder, Director of the DCI Nonproliferation Center; General Barry Macaffrey, Director of National Drug Control Policy, Executive Office of the President; The Hon. Ted Stevens, US Senator and Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee; Colonel Richard Stotts, Commander of the USAF Information Warfare Center; The Honorable George Tenet, Director of Central Intelligence Mr. Michael A. Vates, Depy Asst Dir. FBI, National Infrastructure Protection Center


2. The AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION will be held in conjunction with the AFIO National Symposium, at the Tysons Marriott Hotel on Thursday 21 October at 4 pm. It will include a GENERAL MEMBERSHIP MEETING, a RECEPTION and cocktail hour, and an AWARDS BANQUET (three course dinner, music, awards to an media representative and a book author, and to exceptional AFIO members, and with a distinguished keynote speaker). On Saturday morning follow-on meetings will be held, primarily with chapters members and the AFIO Board of Directors. Special tours may be arranged on Friday. NOTE: The AFIO Honorary Board and a number of notables will be invited to attend the Reception and Banquet as guests of AFIO.

Programs and full information for the "Intelligence 2000" Symposium, and for the National Convention, will be mailed out shortly . RATES: AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM only - 21 Oct Marriott & 22 Oct at NRO - $165 (for members and their guests, and for selected other categories of individuals*) AFIO NATIONAL SYMPOSIUM - non-members (see note below*) - $215

AFIO NATIONAL CONVENTION only - 21 /23 October / Mariott Hotel - $105 (for AFIO members and their guests)

Package price for BOTH Convention and Symposium, for members and their guests = $239.

NOTE* - US /State/local Government personnel, and members of NMIA, DOCA, SASA, NIP, CIN, PCIC, SCIP and Natl Security Com of ABA, are invited to attend at AFIO member rates.

The total number of attendees is limited to 250. Early sign-up is recommended. For AGENDA information, contact: Symposium Chairman RADM (ret) Don McDowell, donmcdo@aol.com> or the AFIO Executive Director, Roy Jonkers . For REGISTRATION information, contact Mrs Gretchen Campbell, AFIO Dir. of Administration, tel (703) 790-0320, or email .

REGISTRATION: Provide Name, Social security number (for Government security check for Symposium), Title, Organization, Mailing & email and tel address, plus a check made out to "AFIO" and mail to: AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533.

LODGING - - For out-of-towners, suggest you register to get a hotel room soonest. Arrangements for lodging may be made with the Tysons Corner Marriott hotel. To qualify for the SPECIAL RATE of $84 per night (good ONLY for Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights ) you MUST mention ASSOCIATION OF FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS. If you include Wednesday night, they will not extend the special rate.

Early hotel reservations are recommended (soonest), as the Marriott is expected to fill rapidly and early due to other events in the area.

UPCOMING INTELLIGENCE RELATED EVENTS. (Mark your calendars -- let me know of events I have missed, jdmac@erols.com.)

SEP 10-12, Berlin, Germany. Conference, "Berlin: The Intelligence War," co-sponsored by the CIA Center for the Study of Intelligence, the Allied Museum, and Teufelsberg. For information, contact: Carol Minor at fax (703) 613-3050, or richaes@ucia.gov

SEP 13, Washington, DC. AFIO luncheon, Ft Myer O'Club, 10:30am. MORNING speaker, Rick Francona, retired AF intelligence officer, point man for US covert assistance to Iraq during the Iraq-Iran war, and interpreter for General Schwarzkopf during the Gulf War, will speak on intelligence and policy issues concerning Iraq's transition from ally to adversary. LUNCHEON speaker Kenneth Knaus, former CIA operations officer, will speak on America's covert aid to Tibetan resistance. (703) 790-0320 (may be too late to sign up for this one)

SEP 16, Washington, DC. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon meeting, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. Speaker Rick Francona (see above). (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

SEP 22-29, Adelphi, MD. Assoc of Old Crows IEW Conference, Army Research Lab (classified). (703) 549-1600

OCT 6-7, Laurel, MD. AFCEA & NSA sponsored symposium, "Critical Technologies for 21st Century" (classified). (410-684-3677

OCT 9, Northern VA, NMIA Potomac Chapter breakfast. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

OCT 21-23, Chantilly, Virginia. AFIO National Symposium and Convention, to be held in part at the NRO facility near Dulles Airport. ((703) 790-0320. https://www.afio.com

OCT 27, Hampton, VA. NMIA Tidewater chapter workshop on hyperspectral imagery. 757.867.9063 / http://www.nmia.org/

OCT 27-28, Washington. AFCEA symposium, "Commercial Support to Intelligence (classified, TS SI/TK), at the DIAC, (703) 631-6250.

OCT 29-30, Kennebunkport, ME. Fall meeting of AFIO New England Chapter, Nonantum Resort with Nigel West. Peggy Ann Adler, (860) 669-7706 / PeggyAnn2@Juno.com

Oct 27-28, Washington. AFCEA Symposium at the Defense Intelligence Analysis Center, Bolling AFB, "Commercial Support to Intelligence." Attendees must be US citizens and have a Top Secret SI/TK clearance. http://www.afcea.org

OCT 27-29, Ft Meade, MD, NSA will host 8th Symposium on Cryptologic History. Contact Dr David Hatch, (301) 688-2336.

NOV 18, Washington, DC. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon meeting, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

NOV 30 - DEC 2, Fairfax, VA. AFCEA course, "US Intelligence Community" (classified), (703) 631-6135.

NOV 30 - DEC 3, Arlington, VA. Four day series of programs comprising "Intell '99," at Marymount University Conference Center, Arlington, VA http://www.intelweb.org/programs.htm NOV 30, Arlington, VA. NMIA counterintelligence conference. http://www.nmia.org/ DEC 1, Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysis sponsored by IALEIA, http://www.intelweb.org/lawenforce.htm DEC 2, NMIA intelligence conference, DIS '99. http://www.nmia.org/ DEC 3, Foreign Intelligence Assessment: Focus on North Korea, sponsored by JTM & Associates http://www.intelweb.org/forintel.htm

DEC 6, Fort Myer, VA O'Club. AFIO quarterly luncheon 1030 - 2pm. bar; 11am morning speaker and noon luncheon.

DEC 9, Washington, DC. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon meeting, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

Next Year: 2000

JAN 13, Washington, DC. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon meeting, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

FEB 17, Washington, DC. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon meeting, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

MAR 14-17, 1999, Los Angeles. Annual meeting of the International Studies Association (ISA) and its very active Intelligence Studies Group. http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/sections.html

MAR 16, Washington, DC. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon meeting, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

APR 13, Washington, DC. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon meeting, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

APR 26-27, AFCEA intelligence symposium. (classified?)

MAY 6, Northern VA, NMIA Potomac Chapter breakfast. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

MAY 15-18, Washington, DC. OSS annual conference (in conjunction with AFIO and SCIP.

MAY 19, Alexandria, VA. NMIA Information Operations '99 at the Betac facility in Alexandria, Virginia. (classified)

MAY 19, Alexandria, VA. NMIA Awards Banquet at the Mark Center Hilton. http://www.nmia.org.

JUN 15, Washington, DC. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon meeting, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net


TIGHE SCHOLARSHIP DETAILS ANNOUNCED (San Diego, California). The San Diego Chapter of the Association of Former Intelligence Officers (AFIO/SDC1) has announced the topic for the year 2000 Tighe Scholarship essay contest. This will be the sixth, and last, year for this contest which is funded by the chapter and by Bally Manufacturing and the Brunswick Corporation, in memory of Lieutenant General Eugene F. Tighe, Jr., who passed away on January 29, 1994. General Tighe served the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Intelligence Community for over 50 years, including as the Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency from 1978 to 1981. To help foster intellectual excellence, encourage college students to think about issues facing the Intelligence Community, and to make post-secondary students aware of Intelligence as a profession, the San Diego Chapter is offering a $1,000 scholarship to the student who submits the best 1,000-1,500 word essay on the specific topic: "Identify and discuss the top national security threat(s) you think the U.S. Intelligence Community should be focused on today." Complete details, including required essay format and a mandatory application that must accompany the essay, are available from AFIO/SDC1 by sending a stamped Self-Addressed Stamped Envelope (SASE -- size #10 business) to: Tighe Scholarship Administrator; 1142 Miramonte Glen; Escondido, CA 92026-1724. AFIO/SDC1 will send Tighe Packages back to students in their SASE's if they are received by the Administrator prior t o December 1, 1999. Postmark deadline for submitting essays and applications is January 10, 2000. Questions can be addressed to the Administrator via e-mail to esb4jts@aol.com.


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