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AFIO Weekly Intelligence Notes #47-99, dtd 23 NOV 1999

WINs are normally produced by Roy Jonkers afio@afio.com for AFIO members and subscribers. As Roy is attending conferences in Texas and Europe, Associate Editor John Macartney jdmaca@bellatlantic.net produced this WIN.

The WIN now goes to more than 1150 recipients. We need 50 more new members by mid-December. Check your Christmas list for old colleagues - - enroll them in the cause!

Every Member Sponsor a New Member - - and keep AFIO healthy and effective!

REGISTER NOW for the AFIO Luncheon on Monday, Dec 6 with speakers Antonio Mendez and Fritz Ermarth. Send check for $26/person to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533. (703.790-0320) https://www.afio.com.


SECTION I CURRENT INTELLIGENCE

IRAN SELLS SCUD MISSILES TO CONGO. In a front page story in the Nov 22 Washington Times, Bill Gertz reports that US intelligence detected Iranian Scud B and Scud C missiles being exported to the Congo. (jdmac)

http://www.washtimes.com/
http://www.drudgereport.com/gertz.htm

CANADIAN INTELLIGENCE GOOF. The Canadian Intelligence Security Service is has confirmed that a top secret document -- reportedly containing key operational plans of the agency for the upcoming year -- was stolen from the back of a spy official's minivan last month while it was parked outside a hockey stadium. The culprits are believed to be smash-and-grab thieves, not secret agents from enemy powers, but there is still fear that the document might wind up in the wrong hands, compromising Canada's security. (Boston Globe, Nov 18) (jdmac)

CHINESE ESPIONAGE PROBE Continues... The FBI has found new evidence suggesting that China may have stolen information about the most advanced U.S. nuclear warhead from one of the weapon's assemblers, widening an investigation once focused almost exclusively on Los Alamos National Laboratory and one of its staff scientists, Wen Ho Lee. The evidence emerged after weapons scientists at Los Alamos noted errors in a Chinese intelligence document that sparked the initial FBI and congressional investigations into Los Alamos and Lee. The telltale errors, contained in a description of the miniaturized W-88 warhead, were traced to one of the contractors and defense installations that assemble nuclear weapons, government sources said. While the new evidence does not completely eliminate Los Alamos or Lee, the sources said, it indicates that the most likely origin of the information is one of the weapons "integrators." These include Sandia National Laboratories, which puts together prototypes of some warheads; Lockheed Martin Corp., which attach warheads to missiles; and the Navy, which supervises the process. Meanwhile, Lee says he cannot find two high-density disks into which he downloaded nuclear secrets, while FBI Director Freeh says he expects Lee to be indicted for negligence in handling classified info.(jdmac)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/business/A19526-1999Nov18.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-11/20/074l-112099-idx.html

DECLASSIFICATION DEADLINE EXTENDED. President Clinton extended the deadline for declassification of historically significant documents by 18 months from April 2000 to October 2001 because executive branch agencies are behind schedule and still have hundreds of millions of pages to review. Clinton's 1995 executive order mandating the automatic declassification of all 25-year-old documents has made more than 670 million pages of government documents available to the public. But without an extension, the CIA, State Department, Pentagon and other agencies could have been forced to release sensitive national security information in April without adequate review of the documents.

In the same article: DID CIA FORESEE THE FALL OF THE USSR? Jeffrey Richelson is quoted to the effect, "I think they did a good job. If you had read the estimates and studies I read from 1985 to May of 1991, I don't think that anybody would have been surprised by the evolution of events in the Soviet Union." [This matter was the subject of last week's excellent CIA-Bush School conference in Texas last week, where a 378 volume declassified estimates and studies was released.]

DCI PORTRAITS. Although DCI George Tenet suspended the security clearances of his predecessor last August (for transferring classified documents to an unsecured computer in his home), John Deutch's portrait recently went up in the main first floor corridor at CIA with all other past DCI's. Except Helm, the portrait of Richard Helms hangs in Tenet's personal dining room at the Agency. (Vernon Loeb in Wash Post) (jdmac)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/WPlate/1999-11/19/167l-111999-idx.html

DID US MISS OPPORTUNITY TO TOPPLE MILOSEVIC? Media reports speculate that in the early '90s CIA agents, who had penetrated the Yugoslav government at its highest levels, presented a plan to overthrow Prime Minister Milosevic. The CIA allegedly infiltrated the Serb hierarchy in Belgrade, bugging key buildings and obtaining valuable information on Serb plans and intentions. Additionally, agents identified an individual to lead a coup against the government. A top-level CIA officer was dispatched to Belgrade to establish contact with the turncoat and other disillusioned members of Milosevic's inner circle. The potential coup leader was then flown to CIA headquarters, where he outlined a coup strategy. Since he claimed to have the support of key Yugoslav generals, the plan was thought to be feasible. The press speculates that the plan was canceled because then-DCI John Deutch was allegedly not a fan of covert operations, and, more likely, because Milosevic was then an integral part of ongoing Bosnian peace negotiations. (Newsweek 12Apr99)

http://www.newsweek.com/nw-srv/issue/15_99a/printed/us/in/in1715_1.htm


SECTION II - - CONTEXT AND PRECEDENT

FY2000 INTELLIGENCE BUDGET. Congress finally passed this year's intelligence authorization legislation on Nov 19. According to the Washington Post (11/20), aggregate spending is to be "about $29.5 billion," which is probably more than last year's appropriation and certainly more than the Clinton Administration had requested.

http://www.fcw.com/pubs/fcw/1999/1115/web-echelon-11-18-99.html

CHRISTMAS VIRUS CAN REFORMAT HARD DRIVES? "Prilissa" requires a victim to click on the infected email attachment in order to launch itself and infect the users' computer. The virus comes as an attachment to be a message from the last infected user. The body of the email will read, "This document is very important and you've GOT to read this!!" Although the virus can only replicate itself through Microsoft Outlook, the payload can infect any PC running Windows 95/98. So, if you use Eudora or Netscape mail, you get infected but won't spread the virus.

http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200-1455135.html?tag=st.ne.1002.thed.1006-200 -1455135


SECTION III - - BOOKS AND RELATED MATTERS

INTERNATIONAL INTELLIGENCE HISTORY STUDY GROUP. This academically oriented study group is based in Germany and has a useful web page that features back issues of their newsletter, book reviews and useful links. Many posts are in English, others in German or French. All the group's officers seem to be German academics.

http://intelligence-history.wiso.uni-erlangen.de/

THE COMMITTEE REPORTS (Senate, House & Conference) on the FY2000 INTELLIGENCE AUTHORIZATION BILL are now available on line at http://www.loyola.edu/dept/politics/intel/hrpt106-457.txt

DAY OF DECEIT. THE TRUTH ABOUT FDR AND PEARL HARBOR, by Robert B. Stinnett, free Press, Nov 1999. This brand new book is making waves because the author comes up with new 'evidence' to support the old revisionist conspiracy theory that FDR "encouraged" the Japanese to attack Pearl Harbor because he needed to overcome isolationist pressure that was keeping the US from going to Britain's aid in the war against Hitler. After learning of the Japanese plan to attack PH thru SIGINT (the theory goes), FDR (through conspiracies with many others that continue today) not only kept Admiral Kimmel and General Short from obtaining information on Japanese intentions to attack PH, but ordered or had ordered actions that prevented those commanders from discovering the Kito Butai and adequately defending PH from the expected attack by the Japanese.

NOTE: Though the following link and statement were included in the original release of this review by AFIO, the link (as is common on the Internet) is no longer valid and the Jacobsen rebuttal no longer available. AFIO Members who received the Macartney review when it was released were able to access the full Jacobsen article. Unfortunately, Links are perishable. We urge members to read and access news items & other links as we release them and save those you find interesting ... for they have a habit of no longer being active -- in a few days to a few months -- in the ever-changing world of the Internet.

WELL, read the highly recommended, lengthy and thorough rebuttal by veteran US Navy cryptologist, Phil Jacobsen. (jdmac)

http://www.historychannel.com/perl/wwwthreads/showpost.pl?Board=pearl&Number=1 066&page=0&view=collapsed&mode=threaded&sb=5#Post1066

LOCKEED MICRO AERIAL VEHICLE, a bird sized recce drone.

http://www.lockheedmartin.com/missionsuccess/microstar.pdf


AFIO BULLETIN BOARD NOTICES 11/25/99

IN MEMORIAM - >HARRY SUMMERS DIES. Retired Army Col. Harry Summers Jr., a decorated Korean and Vietnam combat veteran who wrote a nationally syndicated newspaper column and was the author of several highly regarded books on strategy and on Vietnam, died Nov 14 at Walter Reed Army Medical Center.He was 67 and had diabetes. We mourn the loss of an old comrade, a voice of experience, balance and common sense on national security affairs.

AFIO LUNCHEON - 6 December - Fort Myer, Virginia - - Antonio Mendez, former CIA tradecraft expert, speaking at 11 a.m. on "Tricks of the Trade and Other Tales," based on his new book, "Master of Disguise: My Secret Life in the CIA" - - and - - Fritz Ermarth, former Chairman of the National Intelligence Council, speaking at 1 pm on "Russia and Organized Crime." Super program - send your check for $26 for AFIO members and guests to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 221012-4533. For more info, call Mrs Gretchen Campbell, 703 790 0320, or by email afionational@cs.com.

MACARTNEY'S HEAD'S UP LIST:

DEC 1, Wednesday, 8am
Breakfast meeting of the American Bar Association's Committee on National Security. University Club, 1135 16th Street, NW. Speaker will be Gilman Louie, President and CEO, In-Q-It, the non-profit corporation recently set up by CIA in Silicone Valley.

http://www.abanet.org/natsecurity/home.html

DEC 1, Wednesday all day
NMIA Conference on Counterintelligence, Ft Myer, Virginia

http://www.nmia.org

DEC 2, Thursday all day NMIA conference on intelligence, DIS '99, Ft Myer, Virginia.

http://www.nmia.org

DEC 1, Wednesday
IALEIA Fall Conference "Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysis," Marymount University Conference Center, Ballston Campus, Arlington, VA (www.intelweb.org).

DEC 6, Monday
AFIO Winter luncheon, Ft Myer O'Club, 11am - 2pm. The 11am speaker will be Mr Antonio Mendez, author of MASTER OF DISGUISES: MY SECRET LIFE IN THE CIA. Luncheon speaker will be Fritz Ermarth, former Chairman of the NIC, speaking on Russia and Organized Crime. To register, send check for $26/person to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Suite 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533. (703.790-0320) https://www.afio.com

DEC 7, Tuesday, 9am to 1pm
Conference on returning four-star rank to Admiral Husband E. Kimmel, the Pacific Fleet commander at Pearl Harbor on 7 December 1941; 9am -1pm. All star cast. Admission by invitation; call CAPT Todd Creekman, USN (ret), Executive Director, Naval Historical Foundation, 202 678-4333; fax 202 889-3565.

DEC 9, Thursday, 10am - 1pm
NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon, Bolling AFB EM Club. At 10am, former CIA imagery expert, Dino Brugioni, will speak on his new book, "PHOTO FAKERY." Luncheon speaker, Col Phil Ishio, USA-ret, will speak on captured documents exploitation in WWII Pacific theater. Lori Tugman, 703-921-1800 / lj@pcic.net

JAN 20, 2000, Thursday, 11am - 1pm
NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon, Bolling AFB EM Club, 11am. Speaker will be Dr Ruth David, former CIA DDS&T and now President and CEO of ANSER, speaking on "Homeland Defense." Lori Tugman, 703-921-1800 / lj@pcic.net

FEB 17, Washington. Wednesday,
NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon, Bolling AFB EM Club. Lori Tugman, 703-921-1800 / lj@pcic.net

MAR 6, Washington.
AFIO luncheon, Ft Myer O'Club, 11am - 2pm. Speakers tbd. Send check for $26 for lunch to AFIO, 6723 Whittier Ave, Ste 303A, McLean, VA 22101-4533. https://www.afio.com / 703.790.0320

MAR 13-16, Hampton, VA.
NMIA Tidewater / USAF C21SR Center, Hyperspectral Imaging Workshop (unclas). Al Crane 757.867.9063

MAR 14-17, 2000, Los Angeles.
Annual meeting of the International Studies Association (ISA) and its very active Intelligence Studies Group. http://csf.colorado.edu/isa/sections.html

MAR 16, Washington. NMIA Potomac Chapter luncheon, Bolling AFB EM Club. Lori Tugman, 703-921-1800 / lj@pcic.net

APR 13, NMIA Potomac Chap luncheon, Bolling AFB EM Club. (703-921-1800; email lj@pcic.net; website )

APR 26-27, AFCEA intelligence symposium. (classified?)

April 28-29 AFIO/New England chapter, Madison Connecticut.
Friday night cocktails and Saturday speaker, retired FBI/SA Ray Batvinis. Contact Peggy Ann Adler. (860) 669-7706 / peggyann2@juno.com

MAY 6, Northern VA, NMIA Potomac Chapter breakfast. (703) 921-1800, or Lori Tugman, lj@pcic.net

MAY 8-9, Northern VA, NRO/NMIA National Intelligence Symposium at NRO Facility (SECRET). http://www.nmia.org

MAY 15-18, Washington, DC.
OSS annual conference (in conjunction with AFIO and SCIP. (www.oss.net)

MAY 19, Washington DC, AFIO Conference on Intelligence and the Law, chaired by Thomas spencer, Esq.(Spencer &Klein, Miami) , at The International Trade Center. Topics planned include Economic Espionage - cases and solutions; Intellectual Property Litigation - practical problems and court trends; Money Laundering - new techniques and preventive measures; Theft of Businexs Secrets in foreign Jurisdictions and by foreign Agents - preventive measures, and Targets and Techniques of Business Terrorism. For information on the agenda, contact Conference Chairman Tom Spencer trsmiami@aolcom. Further information will be provided.

MAY19, Alexandria, VA.
NMIA Information Operations '99 (classified) at Betac facility in Alexandria, Virginia.

MAY 19, Alexandria, VA.
NMIA Awards Banquet at the Mark Center Hilton. http://www.nmia.org.

JUN 15, NMIA Potomac Chap luncheon, Bolling AFB EM Club. (703-921-1800; email lj@pcic.net; website www.vdsa.net/potomac)

JUN 26, Fort Myer, Va, AFIO Quarterly Luncheon, 11 am - 2 pm. Speakers to be determined. For your planning purposes, the REMAINING LUNCHEONS FOR THE YEAR 2000 are set for September 11 and December 4 at the same location.


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